La temporada de presentación de informes que acaba de comenzar volverá a superar algunas expectativas y a quedarse corta en otros casos. Pero una cosa que se espera con seguridad, según DWS, es que los analistas y estrategas bursátiles señalarán que esta vez se trata menos de las cifras realmente presentadas y más de las perspectivas de las empresas.
“Está claro que el mercado de valores se mueve en función del futuro, no del pasado. Y rara vez el futuro es más difícil de captar en cifras que en momentos de grandes oscilaciones cíclicas”, señala en un reciente análisis.
Fuentes: Refinitiv, DWS Investment GmbH, a fecha de 14/7/2021.
De acuerdo con DWS, hay dos patrones típicos en la evolución de las estimaciones de beneficios a lo largo del tiempo. En primer lugar, las estimaciones de consenso – cuya recopilación comienza unos dos años antes del inicio del año correspondiente – son siempre demasiado optimistas cuando se elaboran. “Es la naturaleza humana: tendemos a suponer que las cosas mejorarán en seis o doce meses”, señala.
En segundo lugar, la dinámica de las subidas y bajadas se subestima con frecuencia. Por ejemplo, apunta la gestora, bien entrado el otoño de 2009, los analistas tuvieron que revisar drásticamente a la baja sus estimaciones para ese mismo año; mientras que las estimaciones para 2010 se revisaron al alza muy avanzado el otoño de ese mismo año para ajustarse al ritmo de la recuperación de entonces.
DWS cree que este hecho “también se hace evidente en el actual repunte”. En este sentido, señala que, desde finales del otoño de 2020 – con la aprobación de las vacunas, la victoria demócrata en las elecciones presidenciales de Estados Unidos y la rápida mejora de la economía -, los analistas han tenido que ajustar al alza sus previsiones para 2020, 2021 y 2022.
Asimismo, apunta la gestora, sólo desde principios de este año las estimaciones de beneficios para 2021 del Stoxx 600 se han elevado un 13%, y las del S&P 500 un 15%. Sin embargo, los precios han subido un 18% en ambos índices durante el mismo periodo, lo que significa que los mercados se han encarecido medidos por la relación precio-beneficio. DWS piensa que “esto no era de esperar”, ya que los rendimientos de los bonos han pasado del -0,6% al -0,3% en el caso de la deuda pública alemana a 10 años; y del 0,9% al 1,4% en el caso de los bonos del Tesoro estadounidense a 10 años, en comparación a principios de este año1.
La dinámica que empuja a los precios por encima de las estimaciones es, según DWS, “casi evidente”. En primer lugar, porque la dirección del mercado influye en las valoraciones de los analistas. En segundo lugar, porque las estimaciones no se revisan ni se recaban a diario. “El hecho de que las estimaciones de consenso generalmente van por detrás de las expectativas reales es evidente de nuevo este trimestre, valora en su análisis.
Un ejemplo de esta realidad es el consenso para los beneficios trimestrales del S&P 500: 45 dólares, según Bloomberg. DWS piensa, sin embargo, que todo lo que esté por debajo de los 50 dólares – la llamada whisper estimate – sería una decepción. Además, el hecho de que tantos participantes en el mercado den por hecho un trimestre beat – es decir, un cumplimiento excesivo de las expectativas – sugiere que el mercado no se vería gratamente «sorprendido» por dichos resultados.
“A fin de cuentas, todos estos juegos tácticos del mercado no deberían ocultar el hecho de que, a largo plazo, los precios de las acciones están supeditados a los beneficios presentados, y gran parte del resto es ruido”, concluye DWS.
1.Bloomberg Finance L.P., a fecha de 14/7/2021.
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