Bitcoin has come a long way from the famous purchase of two pizzas for 10,000 BTC made by Laszlo Hanyecz in May 2010 to its current consolidation as a global asset. According to the latest Binance Research report, which analyzes its evolution over its 16-year history from a functional, behavioral, and structural perspective, the cryptocurrency is increasingly integrated into institutional portfolios.
The report highlights a structural contraction of the liquid supply. The proportion of Bitcoin held by long-term holders has risen from around 30% in 2013 to approximately 60% today, recording the largest increases during market bear periods, which points to a dynamic of accumulation rather than capitulation. In addition, nearly 25% of the Bitcoin supply has remained inactive for more than five years, suggesting that the volume actually available for trading is materially lower than what the circulating supply reflects.
Institutional participation has become one of the defining features of the current cycle. Institutional entities currently own around 3.88 million BTC, equivalent to 18.5% of Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million, while public companies and ETFs each account for close to 6% of the total. Excluding positions linked to DeFi and other protocols, the estimated institutional holding stands at around 3.5 million BTC, equivalent to about 1 in every 6 BTC. This marks the first cycle in which the marginal buyer is increasingly institutional rather than retail. Furthermore, nearly half of corporate Bitcoin accumulation has occurred over the last 12 months.
Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US already accumulate close to 1.62 million BTC, a figure higher than the remaining Bitcoin left to be mined, highlighting the growing weight of flows into ETFs, the adoption of Bitcoin as a corporate treasury asset, and the behavior of long-term holders compared to mining issuance.
Likewise, volatility trends reflect greater market maturity. The 90-day realized volatility dropped to approximately 29% by the end of 2025, its lowest level in nearly a decade, while the average volatility of the cycle has moderated to around 48%, compared to 74% and 76% recorded in the two previous cycles. Bitcoin’s market capitalization has also increased to represent approximately 5% of the total market capitalization of gold, compared to virtually zero levels in 2010, with particularly significant advances following the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US in January 2024.
The report also notes that emerging markets are driving the next phase of Bitcoin adoption. The APAC region recorded 31% year-on-year growth in the number of Binance users, followed by Latin America at 29%, and MENA at 26%. Collectively, the share of Binance users in emerging markets holding BTC reached 58% in 2026, a 29% year-on-year growth, well above the 18% growth observed in developed markets. Bitcoin’s sustained profitability against major emerging market currencies over the past 13 years has favored greater adoption in these regions.
According to Javier García de la Torre, Director of Binance for Spain and Portugal, “Bitcoin is entering a new stage of maturity, marked by a lower liquid supply, growing institutional participation, and an increasingly relevant role as a reserve asset. What a few years ago was perceived as an experimental asset is today consolidating as a strategic diversification tool for companies and institutional investors.”
