The most recent projections point to a sharp expansion of the assets in the Mexican pension system. Beyond the differences among estimates, the challenge will not merely be accumulating these resources, but finding where to invest them efficiently.
The retirement savings system in Mexico is entering a new stage of growth. The gradual effects of the pension reform, the increase in mandatory contributions, wage growth, and investment returns could lift the assets managed by the AFOREs to levels that seemed difficult to reach just a few years ago.
As of June 2026, assets managed by the AFOREs amount to approximately 8.96 trillion pesos, equivalent to 513,000,000,000 dollars. The relevant question is what implications this growth will have for asset allocation and the Mexican financial market.
To gauge this phenomenon, we set out to analyze and compare different growth scenarios for assets managed by the AFOREs, contrasting them with estimates and benchmarks presented by BofA Global Research (2023), Santander (2023), BBVA (2023), J.P. Morgan Asset Management (2025), CONSAR (2026), and AMAFORE (2026).
Different methodologies, a common trend
Projections made in recent years show significant differences. Rather than a divergence between institutions, these differences largely reflect the time they were prepared, as well as distinct assumptions regarding contributions, wage growth, investment returns, inflation, account growth, withdrawals, and exchange rates.
This is particularly relevant in a period in which the system has undergone major structural changes and mandatory contributions continue to increase gradually.
Older estimates tended to be more conservative. BofA Global Research (2023) estimated approximately 9.9 trillion pesos for that same year.
Projections from BBVA (2023) and J.P. Morgan Asset Management (2025) are considerably higher, with estimates of approximately 15.1 and 15.45 trillion pesos, respectively, for 2030.
More recently, a presentation by CONSAR (2026) showed, as an approximation exercise under a conservative scenario, net SAR assets of around 14.1 trillion pesos in 2030, with a trajectory that would take them to 28.6 trillion in 2040 and 44.7 trillion in 2050. These figures should be interpreted as a benchmark to assess potential scenarios and not as an official CONSAR projection.
Despite starting from different methodologies and assumptions, the most recent benchmarks show convergence toward levels close to 15 trillion pesos by 2030.
This convergence is especially relevant because the various exercises are based on different assumptions and methodologies. Rather than seeking which of them will be exactly right, the set of estimates makes it possible to identify a structural trend: the Mexican retirement savings system could experience a significant change in scale over the coming years.
The exchange rate explains part of the differences
A fundamental aspect when comparing these projections is the currency in which they are presented.
A significant portion of the differences among forecasts, particularly when expressed in dollars, stems from the different assumptions used for the exchange rate. Over 10- or 15-year horizons, relatively small differences in the expected annual depreciation of the peso can produce major deviations in the final value of assets expressed in dollars.
J.P. Morgan provides a good example. Its 2030 estimate of 15.45 trillion pesos is practically identical to our base scenario. However, J.P. Morgan uses an exchange rate of 22.65 pesos per dollar for that year, while our scenario considers 19.51 pesos per dollar.
The result is illustrative. J.P. Morgan arrives at approximately 682,000,000,000 dollars for 2030. Applying our exchange rate assumption to essentially the same volume of assets in pesos yields 792,000,000,000.
That is, two models can reach practically the same system size in pesos and, at the same time, show a difference of 110,000,000,000 when expressed in dollars, mainly due to the exchange rate assumption.
The recent behavior of the peso helps illustrate this difficulty. Currently, the exchange rate remains around and even below 17 pesos per dollar, levels not observed since 2024. Part of this strength reflects recent international dollar weakness, in addition to factors specific to the Mexican economy. However, financial and monetary conditions can change significantly over long horizons, so extrapolating current exchange rate levels out to 2030 or 2040 would be imprudent.
For this reason, we believe that the comparison between the various projections must first be made in pesos. Conversion to dollars is very useful for sizing the system from the perspective of an international investor, but it must always be interpreted taking into account the exchange rate assumption used.
Our base scenario
Based on observed assets as of June 2026, we constructed two internal scenarios aimed at sizing the potential growth of the system. These are aggregate scenarios that apply nominal growth rates to assets under management and are not actuarial projections that individually model the various components of their evolution, such as contributions, wage growth, returns, inflation, contribution density, and withdrawals.
Our conservative scenario assumes annual nominal growth of 10.5% through 2030 and 8% thereafter. Under this assumption, assets would reach approximately 13.4 trillion pesos in 2030, 19.6 trillion in 2035, and 28.9 trillion in 2040.
Our base scenario considers 14% annual growth through 2030 and 10.25% thereafter. This would bring assets under management to approximately 15.1 trillion pesos in 2030, 24.7 trillion in 2035, and 40.2 trillion in 2040.
It is particularly relevant that our 2030 estimate is practically in line with BBVA’s (15.1 trillion), close to that of J.P. Morgan Asset Management (15.45 trillion), and slightly below the most recent estimate from AMAFORE (15.8 trillion).
Despite methodological differences, the proximity among several of these benchmarks suggests that the system could reach around 15 to 16 trillion pesos toward 2030, although the outcome will naturally depend on the evolution of contributions, financial markets, wages, and withdrawals over the coming years.
From 500,000,000,000 US dollars to more than 1.5 trillion US dollars
To size the magnitude of the change from an international perspective, we also converted our projections to dollars using a single exchange rate scenario.
We start from an estimated exchange rate of 18.38 pesos per dollar in 2027 and subsequently assume a gradual peso depreciation of 2% annually, resulting in approximate exchange rates of 19.51 in 2030, 21.54 in 2035, and 23.78 in 2040.
Under these assumptions, our base scenario would imply assets under management near 776,000,000,000 US dollars in 2030, 1.15 trillion US dollars in 2035, and 1.69 trillion US dollars in 2040.
Even under our conservative scenario, assets could exceed 1.2 trillion US dollars toward 2040. These figures are not intended to anticipate precisely what the exchange rate will be in fifteen years. Their purpose is to gauge the order of magnitude that the Mexican pension system could reach.
The real challenge will be investing the resources
Asset growth is only part of the story. As the size of the system increases, so does the challenge of finding sufficient investment opportunities capable of offering adequate diversification and returns.
An AFORE system that eventually manages between 1.2 and 1.7 trillion US dollars will have diversification needs that are very different from current ones.
This could have major consequences for the local debt and equity market, but also for demand in private equity, private credit, infrastructure, real estate, and other private market strategies, both in Mexico and abroad.
The evolution of the AFORE investment regime takes on special relevance in this context. As the volume of managed savings increases, even keeping the percentage allocated to a given asset class constant implies growing amounts of capital that must be invested.
To put this into perspective, each percentage point of allocation in a 40-trillion-peso system would represent around 400,000,000,000 pesos.
This illustrates how the growth of the system could transform not only the size of AFORE portfolios, but also the necessary depth of the markets and vehicles available to invest those resources.
The growth of the system can therefore become one of the main structural drivers of institutional asset demand over the coming years.
More than a projection, a change in scale
Naturally, estimates for 2040 must be interpreted as scenarios and not as precise forecasts. Small differences in returns, inflation, wage growth, contributions, withdrawals, and exchange rates can produce significantly different results when accumulated over extended periods. In particular, outflows from withdrawals could acquire growing importance as the system matures and the number of workers accessing a pension increases.
However, perhaps the most important message is not determining whether the AFOREs will manage exactly 40 or 48 trillion pesos in 2040.
What is relevant is the direction and magnitude of the change.
Mexico could be developing one of the most important pools of institutional capital in Latin America. If projections come close to reality, the challenge in the coming years will not only be increasing retirement savings, but creating conditions and expanding the universe of opportunities to efficiently invest an amount of resources substantially greater than today’s.
Sources consulted:
- BofA Global Research — Pension Reform Can Provide Another Secular Tailwind to Mexican Equities, February 2023.
- Santander — How Would Mexico’s Pension Reform Benefit Its Financial System?, February 2023.
- BBVA — Mexico’s Pension Reform: A New Paradigm for the Financial System, March 2023.
- J.P. Morgan Asset Management — Mexico Pension System Overhaul: Afores in the Spotlight, November 2025.
- AMAFORE / Guillermo Zamarripa — presentation Jueves de Bolsa, Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV), July 30, 2026.
- CONSAR — presentation at the VII BUAP Actuarial Congress (VII CAB), Puebla, August 18, 2026.
