Crear un perfil de objetivos reales para los inversores es más importante que buscar un rendimiento numérico

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How to Build a Portfolio?
Foto de Chris Ford. Crear un perfil de objetivos reales para los inversores es más importante que buscar un rendimiento numérico

A la hora de construir portafolios de inversión los gestores deben buscar que éstos sean duraderos, enfocados al riesgo y que permitan a los inversores sobrellevar la volatilidad de corto plazo en los mercados.

De acuerdo con John Hailer, presidente y director general de Natixis Global Asset Management, es imperativo “quitar las emociones de las inversiones”. En su opinión, el crear un perfil de objetivos reales para los inversionistas es más importante que buscar un rendimiento numérico, además, considerando las expectativas actuales y el que “la volatilidad seguirá por un tiempo más, los portafolios tradicionales no serán suficientes para conseguir los retornos esperados”. En su lugar, se deben usar una combinación de estrategias que incluya gestión activa e instrumentos alternativos líquidos. Eso sí, al decidirse por una estrategia activa, según David Lafferty, estratega en jefe de Mercados de Natixis Global AM, se ésta debe ser “muy activa y evitar quedar a la mitad” ya que si sólo se es activo en nombre, es muy difícil superar en rendimiento neto.

De cara al mercado mexicano, donde la operación de la firma según Mauricio Giordano, director general de Natixis Global AM en México, es un compromiso a largo plazo, e incluye, “una amplia oferta de soluciones con el alto nivel de especialización de cada uno de sus administradores afiliados”, Lafferty recordó que cuando los bonos mexicanos otorgan en promedio un 3,5% de rendimiento, los inversores mexicanos esperan retornos del 10% en sus portafolios renta fija, por lo que hay una diferencia importante en la percepción del mercado. Sin embargo, se muestra optimista sobre las perspectivas de México ya que considera que, además de que el país azteca no está tan ligado a la situación en China, el hecho de que el peso ha perdido más que otras monedas frente a la fortaleza del dólar, se traduce en que “México está en una mejor posición que la mayoría de las economías emergentes para otorgar retornos denominados en dólares”, por lo que “es un destino atractivo para el capital extranjero”.

Sobre al alza de tipos por parte de la Reserva Federal, Lafferty comenta que esto no debe preocupar ya que cualquier proceso de normalización se dará de forma gradual y es un testimonio a que la economía está mejorando, lo que es positivo para las perspectivas del mercado. Si bien es cierto que la volatilidad llegó para quedarse, mantener un perfil de largo plazo y bien diversificado ayudará a sobrellevar el entorno actual.

La inclusión del renminbi en la cesta del FMI repercutirá en el mercado de bonos chino

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La inclusión del renminbi en la cesta del FMI repercutirá en el mercado de bonos chino
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrFoto: David Dennis. La inclusión del renminbi en la cesta del FMI repercutirá en el mercado de bonos chino

Como ha destacado desde hace varios trimestres Haiyan Li, portfolio manager de Carmignac, el FMI incluyó el 30 de noviembre el yuan chino en la canasta de divisas con derechos especiales de giro (SDR). De esta forma el renminbi se convierte en la quinta moneda en la cesta, junto con el dólar, el euro, la libra esterlina y el yen.

A largo plazo, esto es bueno para China. Aún siendo un acto más bien simbólico, marca el inicio de la carrera por la internacionalización del renminbi y debería aumentar la aceptación internacional de la divisa china, así como facilitar su papel como una moneda de reserva.

Las autoridades chinas han estado abriendo mercado financiero del país en los últimos dos años para atraer a inversores institucionales más internacionales. El resultado positivo dependerá, sobre todo, de las reformas financieras puestas en marcha, de la apertura de la cuenta de capital y la internacionalización del renminbi

No esperamos grandes movimientos ya sea de la moneda o el mercado de renta variable a corto plazo tras la decisión del FMI, aunque el mercado no debería subestimar los efectos a largo plazo. La nueva cesta entrará en vigor el 1 de octubre 2016”, explica Li.

Para Carmignac, la inclusión en la cesta no tendrá un efecto inmediato ni beneficios, porque su no provocará grandes compras de renminbi de forma automática por los miembros del FMI. Sin embargo, el reconocimiento oficial debería traducirse en un incremento gradual a largo o medio plazo de las tenencias de activos denominados en renminbi tanto por los gobiernos como por las firmas de asset managers.

“Este avance marca un paso irreversible en la liberalización financiera de China, y el gobierno debe seguir utilizando la inclusión del FMI como un catalizador para profundizar en las reformas del mercado financiero, incluyendo un régimen de tipo de cambio más flexible y una cuenta de capital más abierta”, opina la experta de Carmignac.

El efecto más directo de la inclusión del FMI está en el lado del mercado de bonos chino. A corto plazo, el esperado incremento de los tipos de interés en Estados Unidos, las preocupaciones sobre una mayor depreciación RMB y un creciente número de eventos de crédito onshore continuarán lastrando los mercados.

Sin embargo, a largo plazo, el mercado de bonos onshore de China debería beneficiarse de un aumento de los flujos de asignación de los portfolios a nivel global, conforme el gigante asiático abre aún más sus mercados internos.

Más medidas

La firma francesa recuerda que el plan quinquenal chino revela que el gobierno pretende «proceder de forma ordenada hacia la convertibilidad de la cuenta de capital» en los próximos cinco años, con medidas que incluyen la apertura de los mercados de capitales, una eliminación gradual de las restricciones impuestas a través de sistemas de cuotas -como son  QFII, RQFII y QDII-, ampliando la participación de las  instituciones extranjeras en el mercado de bonos doméstico, reduciendo las restricciones de tenencias de renminbi a las instituciones extranjeras, empresas y hogares, y dando un impulso para aumentar el papel del renminbi en las transferencias y las reservas internacionales.

Para acompañar esta internacionalización, China está desarrollando su propio sistema de pagos internacional, el CIPS (China Sistema de Pagos Internacional), para competir con SWIFT, el sistema de transferencia americano. A través de CIPS, los bancos chinos y los bancos internacionales podrán comerciar directamente en renminbi sin intermediarios.

China, representa aproximadamente el 15% del comercio internacional, mientras que casi el 3% de los volúmenes de transacciones son en renminbi. Sin embargo, la divisa china ya era la cuarta moneda de transacciones más utilizada en todo el mundo (Fuente: SWIFT, septiembre 2015):

Crece el número de firmas de Miami que invierten en hedge funds

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Increasing Number of Miami-Based Investors Allocating to Hedge Funds
Foto: Vrysxy . Crece el número de firmas de Miami que invierten en hedge funds

La zona metropolitana de Miami se está convirtiendo en un player activo en el mundo de los hedge funds, con un continuo aumento en el número de firmas que utilizan este tipo de vehículos y los activos asignados. La base de datos “Preqin Hedge Fund Investor Profiles” contabiliza en la actualidad a 70 inversores en el área de Miami.

La asignación media de los inversores institucionales de Miami a hedge funds asciende a 65 millones de dólares, lo que supone un incremento de 15 millones desde 2013. Por otro lado, también el número de inversores activos se ha incrementado desde 50 en 2013, a 66 en 2014 y 70 en 2015.

La asignación media por parte de los inversores institucionales a hedge funds es, en la ciudad,del 16,2% de sus activos, cifra que crece un 13,8% desde 2014 y supera ligeramente a la media de Norteamérica, que es del 16,1%. Si el crecimiento se mantiene, Miami pronto competirá con los grandes mercados del país como Nueva York (22%), Los Ángeles (18,6%) y Chicago (17,1%).

La institución de la zona con el mayor porcentaje de activos bajo gestión destinados a hedge funds es Chauncey F. Lufkin III Foundation, con más del 81%. Entre los inversores institucionales activos en el segmento, las firmas de private wealth son las más numerosas y representan hasta el 29% de las compañías de la zona que invierten en hedge funds. Fundaciones, fondos de hedge funds y fondos de pensiones públicos suponen el 19,17 y 17%, respectivamente.

Como muestra la imagen de abajo, los fondos de equitiy long/short son los más buscados y llegan a ser utilizados por el 65% de los inversores institucionales de la zona.

Con una gran variedad de instituciones de la zona con posiciones en hedge funds y con una asignación proporcionalmente elevada, la ciudad supone una fuente de capital relativamente pequeña pero significativa para los gestores de hedge funds. Si el número de inversores mantiene la tendencia de crecimiento, Miami se convertirá en un punto importante para la industria, concluye Preqin.

 

PineBridge Investments nombra CEO a Gregory A. Ehret

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PineBridge Investments Appoints Gregory A. Ehret as Chief Executive Officer
PineBridge Investments nombra CEO a Gregory A. Ehret - Photo Youtube. PineBridge Investments nombra CEO a Gregory A. Ehret

PineBridge Investments ha anunciado el nombramiento de Gregory A. Ehret como Chief Executive Officer, con efecto 25 de enero de 2016. Ehret viene de State Street Global Advisors, el negocio de gestión de inversiones de State Street Corporation, donde era presidente y miembro del grupo de dirección ejecutiva.

El presidente del consejo de PineBridge, John L. Thornton, declara: «Greg es un veterano de la industria con una impresionante experiencia en hacer crecer negocios globales, tanto en mercados desarrollados como emergentes. Su liderazgo y experiencia operativa permitirán a PineBridge seguir  prestando a sus clientes una perspectiva global y una oferta inversora única”.

Por su parte, Ehret declara: “He sido testigo del desarrollo de la premiada plataforma multiactivos de PineBridge y es para mi un honor liderar un equipo tan distinguido. Estoy muy ilusionado con mi compromiso con los grupos de inversión de la firma, con presencia en mercados clave en todo el mundo, que estructuran y facilitan productos líderes a los clientes de la compañía”.

Stephen Fitzgerald, CEO en funciones, se mantendrá en su puesto de Deputy Chairman, para el que fue designado en 2013.

En State Street, Ehret era responsable global de clientes, desarrollo de producto, marketing, operaciones y tecnología, además de formar parte del consejo de varias entidades operativas y fondos de la firma. A lo largo de sus más de 20 años en ella ocupó diferentes cargos de responsabilidad en Estados Unidos y Europa. Es licenciado en Economía por Bates College y MBA por la Boston University.

 

 

 

Managed Accounts Should be Positioned as a Service, Not Just Another Investment Option

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The most recent research from global analytics firm Cerulli Associates takes a critical look at the opportunity for managed account providers in the $5.2 trillion private defined contribution (DC) market. As the DC market matures, the asset management industry continues to reassess and measure the efficacy of a target-date product as the primary retirement investment solution for the majority of savers.
Likewise, DC plan sponsors are closely scrutinizing the results of their target-date fund selection as it continues to gather a greater percentage of plan contributions.
 
«Managed account providers may experience greater success in the DC arena if managed accounts are consistently positioned and presented as a service, not just another investment option,» states Jessica Sclafani, associate director at Cerulli. «Importantly, managed accounts should be a complement rather than an adversary to target-date funds.»
 
«An increase in the availability of managed accounts reflects the DC industry’s growing interest in customization as a route to supporting improved participant outcomes,» Sclafani continues. «As participants’ investable assets increase, they become more interested in financial planning and personalized strategies, which are not addressed by the two most common QDIAs-target-date funds and balanced funds-but are both components of managed account programs.»

Cerulli’s latest report, Retirement Markets 2015: Growth Opportunities in Maturing Markets, focuses on trends in the $21.5 trillion retirement marketplace, including assets and growth projections in the different retirement segments – private/public defined benefit plans, private/public defined contribution plans, and the IRA market.

«Rather than fighting an uphill battle in trying to displace target-date funds, Cerulli recommends managed account providers focus on capturing the segment of participants who are nearing retirement, have amassed outside assets, and are looking for additional services,» Sclafani explains. Cerulli estimates there are approximately 19.5 million households ages 45 to 69 with investable assets ranging from $100,000 to $2 million. Cerulli considers these households, which represent $9.1 trillion in investable assets, as the target market for managed account providers.

Cerulli believes that managed account providers must partner with DC plan sponsors to make sure the differentiated value of a managed account is conveyed to participants (e.g., access to personalized advice or the ability to incorporate assets outside of the DC plan for a more holistic financial planning experience). For participants to opt in to a managed account service, they need to understand what they are paying for. This requires extra work from both the plan sponsor and managed account provider in educating the plan participant base.

ESMA Seeks Candidates for its Stakeholder Representative Group

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The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) is seeking candidates to represent the interests of financial markets stakeholders of all types as members of its Securities Markets Stakeholders Group (SMSG).

The SMSG helps to facilitate consultation between ESMA, its Board of Supervisors and stakeholders on ESMA’s areas of responsibility and provides technical advice on its policy development. This helps to ensure that stakeholders can contribute to the formulation of policy from the beginning of the process.

The successful candidates will take up their roles in July 2016. Steven Maijoor, ESMA Chair, said: “The SMSG plays a key role in providing advice from the perspective of a broad range of financial market stakeholders to ESMA and its Board on its activities, and makes a vital contribution to the development of financial markets policy. We are seeking the broadest possible stakeholder representation, in terms of stakeholder segment, gender, and geography, and encourage all interested parties to put themselves forward for consideration.”

The SMSG was established under Article 37 of the ESMA Regulation and is composed of 30 members, representing consumers, users of financial services, financial market participants, academics, employees in the financial sector and SMEs.

It meets on at least four occasions per year and twice with ESMA’s Board of Supervisors.

Each Member of the SMSG serves for a period of two and a half year and can serve two consecutive terms.

Application process

The call for expression of interest for membership in the SMSG is open to stakeholder representatives from the European Union and the EEA. The deadline for applications is 29 January 2016.

Kelly and Franchot Will Lead Amherst’s CRE Business

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Amherst Capital Management, a real estate credit investment specialist and BNY Mellon Investment Management boutique, announced on Monday the addition of two seasoned real estate finance executives to lead the development of its Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Lending business. Christopher T. Kelly was appointed Head of Commercial Real Estate Lending, and Abbe Franchot was named Head of Originations.

«We are thrilled to announce the launch of our CRE Lending platform and expanded offerings on the alternative side of our business,» said Sean Dobson, CEO of Amherst Capital. «Chris and Abbe are exceptional real estate finance professionals and terrific additions to the Amherst Capital team.»

As Head of Commercial Real Estate Lending for Amherst Capital, Chris is responsible for leading all facets of the CRE middle-market Lending business, and targeting mortgage investments in all types of commercial and for-rent residential real estate assets. In this role, Chris will oversee the origination and qualification of potential investment opportunities and drive the underwriting process of CRE transactions, including cash flow modeling, asset valuation and debt structuring, additionally, he will provide oversight for Amherst Capital’s overall CRE loan portfolio performance and asset quality.

«The ability to participate in the initial growth and development of a new private debt origination business for Amherst Capital with the support of BNY Mellon and Texas Treasury Safekeeping Trust Company presents a unique and compelling opportunity,» said Chris Kelly, Head of Commercial Real Estate Lending at Amherst Capital. «We believe that the combination of Amherst Holdings’ deep mortgage expertise, proprietary data and analytics with the strength of BNY Mellon’s infrastructure, places Amherst Capital in a sector-leading position out of the gate.»

Chris has 28 years of experience in real estate debt, mezzanine and equity markets. Prior to joining Amherst Capital, he led the national real estate lending business at CapitalSource, a division of Pacific Western Bank, as a Managing Director and Head of Real Estate. 

As Head of Originations, Abbe will lead a team of originators that will source investment opportunities. Abbe previously worked alongside Chris at CapitalSource, where she was responsible for providing debt solutions to CRE owners and investors nationwide as a senior member of the originations team.

Amherst Capital’s CRE Lending team will initially focus on strategies providing interim floating rate debt for property acquisitions or recapitalizations with a value-add or opportunistic investment plan.

Pictet Launches New Asian Equity Fund

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Pictet Asset Management added a new fund to its offering. With the launch of PTR Phoenix, a market neutral fund, they offer investors access to Asian stock markets.

Led by James Kim, Tai Panich and Jing Wang in Singapore, the sixth total return fund at Pictet follows a top-down investment strategy, combining long and short positions in search of alpha.

The Ucits IV-compliant fund, offers weekly liquidity as well as daily pricing. It is registered for sale in Great Britain, Luxembourg, Singapore, Spain, France, Belgium, Italy, Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, and Germany.

Choosing Between Emerging Market Economies is Key for 2016

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Emerging markets have experienced several years of relative underperformance. In 2016, they will face considerable external headwinds such as China’s slowdown and rebalancing, weak commodity prices, higher short-term US interest rates, and possibly further US dollar appreciation. Countries will react in different ways to these pressures depending on the extent of any imbalances and their own economic and institutional characteristics.

In the latest update of the Standard Life Investments emerging markets heat map, chief Economist Jeremy Lawson and Emerging Market Economist Nicolas Jaquier highlight important differences in their risk ratings of individual countries:

Jeremy Lawson said: “In May our heat map proved to be a useful indicator of subsequent asset price movements. Countries like Hungary, Korea and Russia showed relatively low risk and generally fared better than those at the higher end of the spectrum such as Brazil, Turkey and Peru. Looking forward, widespread currency depreciation has helped to reduce external imbalances in many countries, although domestic imbalances remain widespread and will take much longer to be addressed.

Venezuela and Egypt, with pegged or inflexible exchange rate regimes, remain the countries where our heat map shows risks are highest. Brazil and Malaysia have lowered their risk score after seeing their basic balances improve during the year, though risk is still high. Turkey’s external vulnerabilities are unchanged broadly, despite the benefits of the drop in oil prices.

“Whilst Colombia’s external variables improved marginally, this was offset by rising domestic imbalances. The outlook for fiscal balances has deteriorated notably in Latin America and Russia, and a marginal worsening of domestic balances led to a slight increase in risk for India, Indonesia, Mexico and The Philippines.”

Erste Asset Management Discloses CO2-Footprint of its Equity Funds

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As part of the Montréal Carbon Pledge which it signed as first asset management company in Austria in September 2015, Erste Asset Management has for the first time published the cumulative CO2 footprint of its equity funds. At 70.6%, the footprint falls nearly 30% short of the benchmark index, the MSC World (as of 30 October 2015). “Erste Asset Management sees itself as pioneer in sustainable investments”, says Gerold Permoser, CIO of the company in Vienna. “The climate conference in Paris reminds us how important the curtailing of the emission of greenhouse gases and a sustainable economy are in general. By publishing this key figure, we show to what extent our investments contribute to the emission of greenhouse gases.”

As Austrian market leader in the area of sustainability, Erste Asset Management offers three sustainable flagship equity funds, the CO2 footprint of each of which is even lower than that of the overall portfolio, as compared to the MSCI World index: Erste Responsible Stock America (45.4%), Erste Responsible Stock Global (40.7%), and Erste Responsible Stock Europe (39.9%). This way Erste Asset Management clearly demonstrates that a sustainable and ecological investment approach and yield are not mutually exclusive, but instead, complement each other. “We apply stringent criteria in the share selection and orientate ourselves on the basis of the environmental friendliness and sustainability of the respective companies,” as Permoser points out. This is also reflected by the impressive numbers of Erste Asset Management’s CO2 footprint.

After the assessment of the status quo, the next goals are expansion and optimization

By measuring and especially publishing the footprint, Erste Asset Management is taking another step towards strengthening its position as market leader in the field of sustainability. “To us at Erste Asset Management, sustainability also always means transparency. Therefore, there was no long discussion about whether or not to sign the Montréal Carbon Pledge.” At the moment, the company is preparing its next step. In the future, as soon as a sufficient reservoir of reliable data can be guaranteed, additional asset classes may be taken under the umbrella of the Montréal Carbon Pledge, such as corporate bonds or government bonds”.

Establishment of the CO2 footprint

Erste Asset Management establishes the CO2 footprint of its portfolios in a multi-step process: external rating agencies calculate the greenhouse emissions for all securities in the respective fund. Then the weighted average of the emissions of the securities held are calculated for each fund portfolio. The experts establish the total footprint of the measured equities held by Erste Asset Management by assigning weights across all funds, with the weights resulting from the share of the respective fund in terms of total assets under Erste AM’s management. The CO2 footprint accounts for the emission of all six greenhouse gases as defined by the Kyoto Protocol. The emission of the various gases is translated into a carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e: tons of carbon dioxide equivalent) to ensure the different gases are comparable in terms of their harmful effects on the climate at one glance. In order to facilitate comparability between companies of different sizes the emission of the carbon dioxide equivalent is related to sales in millions of USDs. This standardization is defined as CO2 intensity.

Montréal Carbon Pledge

The Montréal Carbon Pledge was launched on 25 September 2014 at the “PRI in Person” meeting in Montréal. This initiative is supported by PRI (Principles for Responsible Investment) and UNEP FI (United Nations Environment Programme Finance Initiative).  The goal of the Montréal Pledge is to compile a list of signatories that manage assets worth in excess of USD 3,000 billion by the time of the world climate conference in Paris in December 2015. The Montréal Pledge tries to facilitate a higher degree of transparency in connection with the carbon footprint of equity portfolios and wants to contribute to its reduction in the long run.