En la última década, el comportamiento de la renta variable podría describirse como sorprendente. Después de la crisis financiera del 2008, las expectativas para la renta variable emergente eran muy altas y se preveía una desaparición estructural de la economía y los mercados bursátiles estadounidenses. El resultado final terminó por dar la vuelta a las expectativas.
A medida que nos adentramos en una nueva década, el debate se ha centrado en los nuevos temas de inversión posibles. Preguntas como «¿Cuál será el mejor mercado?» o «¿Rebotará Europa?» son mejor respondidas por los especuladores. Como inversores enfocados en el valor, evitamos hacer pronósticos de este tipo. Lo que es seguro es que habrá cambios.
El contexto que rodea a la inversión sostenible y ASG continúa desarrollándose. Los 17 ODS de las Naciones Unidas suponen un plan brillante, pero trasladarlos a la realidad ha presentado muchos desafíos. El tema de la sostenibilidad requiere un modelo económico capaz de estimar los costes y beneficios, pero sigue siendo una disciplina nueva.
Las actitudes también necesitan ser cambiadas. Normalmente, las personas no están dispuestas a embarcarse en cambios importantes cuando sus beneficios son diferidos (es decir, un mundo mejor en el futuro), pero los costes son inmediatos (renunciar al plástico). Las empresas tampoco están dispuestas a asumir costes adicionales de manera voluntaria por la misma razón: que el paso a un modelo sostenible suele acarrear costos inmediatos y beneficios no cuantificables.
No es sorprendente que el progreso haya sido lento, pero ahora hay algunas señales de cambio. Las generaciones más jóvenes (Z y A) ya constituyen la mayoría de la población mundial y tienen poco que perder, ya que la riqueza financiera está predominantemente en manos de la generación de mayor edad.
Los inversores individuales están empezando a tomar la cuestión por sus propias manos, haciendo preguntas sobre cómo se está invirtiendo su dinero. Las universidades se ven obligadas a cambiar su enfoque de inversión cuando se considera deficiente y muchos fondos soberanos de inversión cuyas fortunas se fundaron en el carbono ahora se están deshaciendo de él. Esta transformación llevará tiempo y el debate continuará, pero no hay duda de que el mundo de las inversiones tendrá un aspecto muy diferente al final de esta década.
La experiencia de DWS y CROCI
DWS ha reconocido desde hace mucho tiempo la importancia de los factores ASG para los inversores y fue uno de los primeros signatarios de los Principios de Inversión Responsable (PRI) respaldados por la ONU en 2008. Desde entonces, ha desarrollado una metodología de calificación ASG propia que utiliza los distintos enfoques de los principales proveedores de datos. El resto se centra en los riesgos de transición climática, que combinamos con los datos CROCI para comprender cómo están las cosas hoy en día y cuál es la dirección de este viaje.
Hay dos elementos principales que consideramos al incorporar el ASG: primero, el elemento de aplazamiento (en este caso, prevenir un mayor cambio climático) y, segundo, la legalidad de diversas actividades corporativas. Los efectos ambientales relacionados con el primer elemento son cada vez más evidentes, por lo que nos hemos centrado en el riesgo climático y el impacto climático.
Midiendo el riesgo climático
En DWS, ya hemos intentado afrontar la complejidad de definir el riesgo climático. Sin embargo, una vez que se abordan las definiciones, el siguiente paso es calcular las exposiciones en los mercados de valores a las empresas con alto riesgo climático. Creemos que el enfoque correcto debe ser a través de la capitalización del mercado o de las ganancias.
La buena noticia para los inversores es que la exposición a las ganancias dentro de nuestro universo global de cobertura CROCI es baja (nuestro universo de muestra es de 881 empresas). Cerca del 60% de las ganancias ponderadas por la capitalización de mercado son resistentes al riesgo climático y solo el 12% se encuentra en riesgo alto o excesivo. Por tanto, a primera vista, claramente existen desafíos, pero la dirección es alentadora.
Analizar la exposición actual de las ganancias es un punto de partida útil, pero para comprender cómo abordar el futuro del cambio climático es necesario otro ángulo: centrarse en el capital invertido en lugar de en las ganancias.
La lógica para utilizar el capital es sencilla. Compañías diferentes en sectores diferentes pueden tener niveles muy diferentes de rentabilidad. Las ganancias para la misma unidad de capital pueden variar sustancialmente, pero la inversión en renta variable de un inversor, en última instancia, está financiando el capital que invierte una empresa.
Es el funcionamiento de los activos de una empresa lo que realmente causa cualquier posible daño ambiental, por lo que creemos que la mejor manera de medir su verdadero impacto climático es centrándose en su capital.
En la práctica, esto significa que la cantidad de capital invertido en acciones con un riesgo climático alto o excesivo constituye el 36% del total, es decir, 3 veces más que el peso correspondiente por capitalización de mercado. Los inversores pueden tener una exposición ponderada por capitalización de mercado del 12% al riesgo de transición climática, pero esto significa que el 36% de los activos tangibles e intangibles combinados tienen un alto riesgo climático.
Es difícil predecir cómo estarán las cosas en una década. Lo que es seguro, sin embargo, es que el enfoque de la inversión será diferente: es probable que esté más enfocado a la sostenibilidad y al ASG, dados los riesgos actuales para el clima.
Tribuna de Francesco Curto, director global de la estrategia de inversión CROCI en DWS, y Colin McKenzie, responsable de CROCI Intelligence en la gestora
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CROCI, or Capital Return on Capital Invested, is a cash-flow-based analysis which, by making a series of economic adjustments to traditional accounting data, aims to make non-financial companies comparable—regardless of industry or domicile.
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