El excepcionalismo estadounidense sigue siendo un argumento de inversión convincente, impulsado por la productividad, la innovación y el impulso de las ganancias, según BNY Investments. Sin embargo, la elevada volatilidad subraya la importancia de la diversificación. Así, en la firma ven oportunidades para ampliar selectivamente las inversiones en los mercados internacionales con el fin de fortalecer las carteras en el entorno actual, según recogen en su informe Shifting Gears: at the table with BNY Experts.
Poder de permanencia
Las acciones globales han avanzado con ganancias generalizadas. Las acciones internacionales y los mercados emergentes han subido alrededor de un 20 %, mientras que Estados Unidos ha ganado casi un 10 %. Aunque las acciones estadounidenses han tenido un rendimiento inferior al del resto del mundo, la diferencia de rendimiento se ha reducido de alrededor del -17 % en abril al -10 % a mediados de agosto. Los expertos de BNY creen que esta diferencia seguirá reduciéndose a medida que Estados Unidos se beneficie de los vientos favorables del crecimiento: «Las ventajas estructurales en los mercados laborales, la productividad, la innovación y el liderazgo en inteligencia artificial se han traducido en mercados bursátiles alcistas y un fuerte crecimiento del PIB», afirman. También añaden que, desde 2010, la productividad de Estados Unidos ha crecido dos veces más rápido que la de Europa, y la disparidad se ha ampliado desde la llegada de la COVID-19.
Las expectativas de beneficios también refuerzan la opinión de los expertos de BNY: «Las empresas del S&P 500 registraron unos beneficios superiores a lo esperado en la primera mitad del año y deberían seguir mejorando, respaldadas por políticas favorables y unos fundamentos sólidos», indican desde la gestora. Observan asimismo que la adopción de la IA «está impulsando la demanda de semiconductores y el gasto de capital», y que la One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) «ofrece incentivos para que la producción nacional de chips amplíe su capacidad y refuerce las cadenas de suministro».
En este contexto de políticas favorables y el impulso de la IA, en la gestora observan un entorno favorable para determinados sectores:
- El sector financiero está en condiciones de beneficiarse de los recortes de tipos de la Reserva Federal, una curva de rendimiento más pronunciada que mejora la actividad de los mercados crediticios y de capitales, y la relajación de las presiones regulatorias.
- Los servicios de comunicación se están beneficiando del aumento de los ingresos por publicidad digital, gracias a que la IA aumenta la participación y los precios.
- Las industrias cíclicas, incluidas las industriales, la energía y los materiales, se ven respaldadas por el gasto en infraestructuras, la relocalización y el aumento de la demanda de electricidad de los centros de datos, mientras que los créditos fiscales OBBB y las deducciones fiscales inmediatas para investigación y desarrollo reducen los costes de fabricación.
Oportunidades en mercados internacionales y emergentes
Aunque desde BNY creen que el excepcionalismo estadounidense continuará, también ven oportunidades atractivas en determinados mercados internacionales y mercados emergentes (ME) fuera de China. En Europa, existe un potencial alcista en el sector industrial, en particular en el aeroespacial y de defensa, impulsado por el aumento del gasto público en defensa, infraestructuras y energía. En Japón, el renovado impulso hacia las reformas de gobierno corporativo y el crecimiento económico continuado han llevado a máximos históricos en su mercado de valores. «La reducción de la incertidumbre comercial, la mejora, la rentabilidad empresarial y una posible recuperación de los salarios y el consumo son factores positivos a largo plazo para las acciones japonesas».
También se declaran optimistas con respecto a los mercados emergentes, excepto China, ya que la flexibilización de la Fed suele conducir a unas condiciones financieras globales más acomodaticias, lo que generalmente favorece a las acciones de los mercados emergentes.
Mirando hacia el futuro
Aunque las acciones están registrando ganancias en lo que va de año, los datos económicos parecen haber entrado en una fase de desaceleración. El sentimiento de riesgo en los mercados, especialmente en torno a la inteligencia artificial, está impulsando el rendimiento del mercado. Esperamos que el crecimiento de EE. UU. continúe, ya que las estimaciones consensuadas han comenzado a mejorar. Las expectativas de gasto de capital y la confianza empresarial han repuntado, y las estimaciones de beneficios están al alza.
Sin embargo, en el frente económico, el mercado laboral está mostrando posibles signos de tensión, lo que podría conducir a una ralentización del crecimiento. Aunque los precios al consumo están subiendo, el gasto se ha mantenido hasta ahora. El gasto podría ralentizarse, dependiendo del impacto de los aranceles y la política de inmigración en el mercado laboral.
Los riesgos geopolíticos también persisten y podrían alterar las cadenas de suministro. La continuidad de datos económicos mixtos podría afectar la confianza de los inversores, que ha mejorado desde abril.
Con estos factores sobre la mesa y de cara a los próximos 6 a 12 meses, en BNY mantienen su convicción de que «la renta variable, y en particular el mercado estadounidense, seguirá generando ganancias». Sin embargo, matizan, en un contexto de tendencias cambiantes, «añadir diversificación geográfica, como la exposición a Japón y a determinados mercados emergentes, puede ayudar a mitigar el riesgo y ampliar la exposición al crecimiento».
Conozca más sobre el informe Shifting Gears: at the table with BNY Experts.
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