Pixabay CC0 Public DomainAuthor: Steve Buissinne from Pixabay
The start of 2026 brings tax regime changes in several countries, notably including a revision of the U.S. federal estate and gift tax exemption threshold and an offshore capital amnesty in Mexico
Greater Exposure to the Estate Tax
As of January 1, 2026, the United States has raised the threshold for the federal estate and gift tax following the enactment of the so-called One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBB Act), which modified federal exemptions. In 2026, the unified exemption stands at $15 million per individual, up from $13.99 million in 2025.
This threshold represents the total value of lifetime gifts and estate transfers a person can make without triggering federal estate or gift tax. Any amount exceeding the exemption is generally subject to a federal tax rate of up to 40%.
In addition, several tax cuts introduced in 2025 under the OBBB Act have been made permanent. These include lower income tax brackets and expanded deductions, such as an increased child tax credit of $2,200, as well as temporary special deductions for seniors, tips, auto loan interest, and overtime pay.
According to a report by Insight Trust, “High-net-worth families in the U.S. should immediately review their estate and gifting structures, as a greater number of heirs may now fall under estate tax liability with the lower exemption threshold. Strategies such as using trusts before death, life insurance, or planning tax residency are increasingly important tools for minimizing tax exposure.”
Mexico’s 2026 Capital Repatriation Program
Mexico’s Voluntary Capital Repatriation Program, coming into effect in 2026, allows taxpayers to regularize legally sourced capital held abroad before September 2025, provided the funds are brought into or returned to Mexico during the 2026 fiscal year. Both individuals and legal entities residing in Mexico, as well as non-residents with a permanent establishment in the country, may participate.
The program’s main incentive is a preferential 15% income tax rate, applied to the full amount of repatriated capital. This tax is final—no deductions, credits, or offsets are allowed—and payment fulfills all tax obligations related to the repatriated funds.
A central condition of the program is that the returned capital must not remain idle. The regulation requires that the funds be invested in Mexico and remain invested for a minimum of three years. Eligible investments include productive assets, business projects, permitted acquisitions, or authorized financial instruments, all subject to criteria established by the tax authority (SAT). Taxpayers must formally declare how the funds will be used and file a specific notice, along with the appropriate tax return for each repatriation transaction.
The regime also includes post-compliance limitations. For example, if the repatriated funds are used to pay dividends or profits before meeting the minimum investment term, additional income tax may apply under general tax rules. Failure to comply with any requirement, such as meeting the deadlines, maintaining the investment, or submitting proper notices, could result in the loss of tax benefits and the imposition of additional tax liabilities by the authorities.
Mexico previously implemented a similar repatriation program between 2016 and 2017 under the administration of Enrique Peña Nieto. At that time, approximately 380 billion Mexican pesos were returned, according to data from the Ministry of Finance, generating an estimated income tax revenue of between 20 and 25 billion pesos. When converted to U.S. dollars using the exchange rate as of January 21, 2026, the repatriated capital amounts to roughly $21.6 billion, with related tax revenues between $1.1 billion and $1.4 billion.
No Peruvian president has completed a full term since 2016. The last to do so was Ollanta Humala, who was later sentenced to 15 years in prison for aggravated money laundering. What followed was a decade marked by seven failed presidencies, characterized by ineffective leadership, corruption, bribery, impeachments, resignations, and an attempted coup.
A Total of 34 Presidential Candidates
That same instability now dominates the electoral landscape. Peru’s upcoming general elections, scheduled for April 12, 2026, feature a record number of presidential candidates, with 34 officially registered, up from 18 in the 2021 elections.
The candidates span the entire political spectrum, from the far left, left, center, right, and far right, including populists and traditionalists, as well as establishment figures and high-profile outsiders such as a comedian and a former footballer who also served as a mayor.
On the left, candidates include figures linked to Perú Libre and Marxist platforms. Vladimir Cerrón remains a prominent far-left figure, though his legal troubles limit his candidacy, while Ronald Atencio is emerging as a notable alternative.
Centrist candidates range from moderate reformers to established political figures. Mario Vizcarra, brother of former president Martín Vizcarra, positions himself as a moderate reformist. Figures like Yonhy Lescano and César Acuña also hold centrist positions, as does former mayor and ex-footballer George Forsyth.
On the right, the field is broad but lacks a dominant candidate. Rafael López Aliaga, a conservative former mayor of Lima, has gained significant support through his tough stance on crime and pro-business rhetoric. Keiko Fujimori, widely known from her three previous presidential bids, remains a key figure but remains polarizing, which limits her ceiling of voter support. Other right-wing figures include journalist and television host Philip Butters, as well as security-focused conservative candidates such as Roberto Chiabra, alongside media personalities like Carlos Álvarez, who present themselves as outsiders.
However, all candidates face an electorate marked by unusually high levels of indecision. Multiple polls show a significant share of undecided voters. Surveys conducted in late 2025 and early 2026 also reveal a wide dispersion of voting intentions. Rafael López Aliaga and Vizcarra have led several polls with moderate single-digit support, while Fujimori’s standing remains below her past electoral performances.
Security Over Corruption
Although corruption remains endemic, as seen in the convictions of former officials and ongoing accusations across administrations, it no longer dominates public discourse to the same extent as economic and security concerns.
Analysts observe a shift in priorities toward public order and safety, especially in urban and peri-urban areas where crime rates have risen, including violence linked to illegal mining and gang activities. In some regions, clashes between criminals have sparked community unrest and highlighted weaknesses in law enforcement.
External influences on the election are expected to be moderate compared to other regional contests. Left-leaning governments in the hemisphere show limited direct intervention, while parties aligned with pro-market platforms may receive attention or tacit engagement from the United States and international stakeholders, mainly around investment and security cooperation.
A New Senate
To address Peru’s political fragmentation and strengthen checks and balances, a major proposal for institutional change involves transitioning from the country’s former unicameral legislature to a bicameral system that would introduce a Senate alongside the current Chamber of Deputies.
The new Senate would be made up of 60 members, half elected from territorial constituencies and the other half at the national level, requiring candidates to have appeal both locally and nationally. While the Senate would not initiate legislation, it would hold decisive power in passing laws and in resolving impeachment proceedings referred by the lower house. This bicameral structure also aims to balance power currently concentrated in executive offices and ministries.
Proponents argue the reform could curb political fragmentation by raising entry barriers through electoral thresholds and balanced regional representation, thus reducing the proliferation of micro-parties. By requiring broader national support and reinforcing legislative oversight, the bicameral system is presented as a safeguard against weak coalition governments and informal clientelist networks. However, critics warn that introducing a second chamber could lead to deadlock between the two houses, especially if political alignment diverges.
Peru’s economic outlook presents a mixed picture. On one hand, it continues to be hindered by long-standing structural weaknesses that successive governments have struggled to address. Chief among these is informality. Approximately 70% of employment remains outside the formal economy, severely limiting tax collection, curbing productivity gains, and leaving large segments of the population without access to pensions, health insurance, or unemployment protection. This informal structure also undermines the effectiveness of public policy, complicating the implementation and sustainability of fiscal and social reforms.
The pension system reflects these distortions. Coverage remains fragmented between public and private plans, and contributions are low due to widespread informal employment. Repeated withdrawals from private pension funds in recent years have further eroded long-term savings, reducing the system’s ability to provide adequate retirement income and weakening domestic capital markets. Although reform proposals surface periodically, political instability has repeatedly stalled meaningful implementation, leaving most structural vulnerabilities intact.
Despite ongoing internal constraints and political fragility, Peru’s economic performance has been relatively strong. Despite frequent leadership changes, the country has maintained macroeconomic discipline for nearly two decades. Fiscal policy has remained conservative, and institutional continuity at the central bank has shielded monetary policy from short-term political pressure.
Peru’s public debt stands at about 32% of GDP, well below the levels seen in major OECD economies. By comparison, U.S. debt exceeds 120% of GDP, while Germany, often viewed as a model of fiscal discipline, stands above 60%. After widening during the pandemic and peaking above 3.5% of GDP in 2024, Peru’s fiscal deficit has narrowed and is expected to approach official targets in 2025 and 2026, adjusting faster than in many advanced economies where high deficits have become entrenched.
Inflation management is another area where Peru stands out. Price pressures have largely remained within the central bank’s target range, thanks to credible monetary policy and a stable monetary framework. This contrasts with prolonged inflation episodes recently seen in the U.S. and parts of Europe, where central banks were forced to adopt aggressive tightening cycles with uneven growth outcomes.
Growth prospects, while modest, are also relatively stable. GDP is expected to grow between 3% and 3.5%, driven by mining investment, infrastructure projects, and steady export demand. This pace outstrips projected growth in Germany and is comparable, or slightly stronger, than medium-term forecasts for the U.S., despite Peru’s significantly higher political uncertainty. High commodity prices and a strong mining investment pipeline continue to anchor external growth, while private investment remains sensitive to electoral outcomes.
As Peru approaches the 2026 elections with a record number of presidential candidates and a fragmented party system, the picture reflects deep institutional fatigue and a growing recognition that the status quo is untenable. Political volatility has eroded governance and public trust, driving voter concerns around security, stability, and accountability. The proposal to reintroduce a Senate offers a potential path toward gradual correction, by raising the standard of representation, reducing fragmentation, and strengthening legislative oversight. Persistent challenges such as informality and pension system shortcomings remain unresolved, but the country’s ability to preserve macroeconomic stability despite repeated political crises suggests a stronger foundation than the political cycle alone might indicate.
The debate is no longer whether securitization is a valid tool, but which asset managers are prepared to use it in a world that has changed its rules. The current environment, marked by structurally higher interest rates, persistent geopolitical tensions, and a much more demanding investor, is penalizing asset managers who continue trying to scale strategies with outdated structures.
Today, the biggest mistake an asset manager can make isn’t being wrong about an investment thesis but insisting on formats that no longer match the market’s reality. The message from the latest Morningstar 2026 Global Outlook is clear: uncertainty is not a one-time event; it’s the new starting point.
In this context, generating a good investment idea is not enough. If that strategy cannot be distributed efficiently, provide liquidity, meet institutional standards, and adapt to various regulatory frameworks, it simply becomes uncompetitive. This is where securitization stops being a technical solution and becomes a strategic advantage.
For asset managers, securitizing means separating alpha from operational friction. It allows converting both liquid and illiquid strategies into listed, tradable, and transparent vehicles. In an environment of recurring volatility, access to intraday liquidity and secondary markets is no longer a “value-added”: it’s a basic requirement.
The reality is uncomfortable for many traditional managers. Institutional investors and private banks are no longer willing to take on illiquid structures, manual processes, or vehicles that are difficult to explain to regulators. They seek products with ISINs, clear valuations, broker access, and a robust governance framework. Securitization precisely meets this demand.
Morningstar also warns that many supposedly “diversified” portfolios are actually exposed to the same risks: extreme concentration, demanding valuations, and liquidity dependent on sentiment. Meanwhile, private assets continue to grow, but their access is still limited by operational friction, high costs, and opaque structures. As the report points out, the problem is not the asset: it’s the format.
This is where securitization stops being a technical tool and becomes a strategic decision. Transforming liquid or alternative assets into listed, liquid vehicles with institutional standards allows asset managers to meet three key demands of today’s market: flexibility, risk control, and global access.
According to The Business Research Company, the global market for asset-backed securities surpassed USD 2.4 trillion in 2024 and is projected to continue growing at an annual rate of 6% in the coming years. Beyond the size, this data reflects a structural shift in institutional capital toward securitized instruments in response to the need for more stable income, real diversification, and more efficient structures in an interest rate volatility environment.
This growth is not a search for yield, but a shift in priorities. For many asset managers, securitized strategies provide access to cash flows tied to the real economy, with less reliance on individual issuers and a better ability to manage duration, credit risk, and liquidity compared to traditional fixed-income alternatives. In this regard, Janus Henderson has pointed out that securitized assets are gaining weight in institutional portfolios for their ability to offer recurring income and greater resilience in scenarios of high-interest rate volatility, relying on diversified portfolios of thousands of underlying assets.
Ignoring this reality comes at a cost. Investors, increasingly informed and sensitive to liquidity and governance, are no longer willing to accept difficult-to-explain structures. They seek products with clear valuations, secondary market trading, and robust regulatory frameworks.
In this scenario, FlexFunds positions itself as a strategic partner for asset managers who want to stay relevant. Its model allows asset managers to repackage assets into listed vehicles (ETPs), ready for global distribution, without the manager needing to become a legal, operational, or regulatory expert. The focus returns to where it should be: portfolio management.
This approach is complemented by integration with solutions like Leverage Shares, a leader in leveraged ETPs in Europe, and Themes ETFs, a specialist in thematic ETFs in the United States, reflecting where the market is heading: liquid, listed vehicles designed to capture opportunities in an agile manner.
The conclusion is clear. From 2026 onward, the question won’t be who has the best investment idea, but who structured it to survive in an environment where uncertainty is no longer the exception, but the norm. Securitization is not a trend: it’s the new standard, and asset managers who don’t integrate it into their business model won’t be defending their identity: they’ll be giving up their future.
If you want to explore how to scale investment strategies in today’s environment, contact the FlexFunds expert team at info@flexfunds.com and discover how to repackage multiple asset classes into listed, liquid, and globally distributable vehicles.
The geopolitical risk premium on oil is likely to remain limited due to the oversupply in the global market, despite increased oil price volatility, according to Fitch Ratings.
Any potential supply disruption in Iran can be absorbed by an oversupplied market. OPEC’s future strategic stance, volume versus value, will be key in shaping the oil market.
“Our Brent oil price estimate for 2026 is $63/bbl, while our ratings for oil and gas companies focus on credit metrics based on our mid-cycle price of $60/bbl,” the agency’s note states.
The global oil market will remain oversupplied in 2026. Fitch estimates a supply increase of 3 million barrels per day (MMbpd) in 2025, and forecasts an additional increase of 2.5 MMbpd in 2026, while demand is expected to grow by only about 0.8 MMbpd annually.
Oil production from non-OPEC+ countries accounts for 55% and 48% of these increases, respectively, driven by the United States, Canada, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina, according to the International Energy Agency. Fitch expects some moderation in non-OPEC+ production growth in 2027.
U.S. oil producers need a WTI price between $61 and $70 per barrel to drill a new well profitably, according to the Dallas Federal Reserve Energy Survey.
Data on Venezuela’s Production
Venezuela holds 17% of global proven reserves, the largest oil resource base in the world, but accounted for just 0.8% of global crude output in November 2025. Venezuelan oil production has declined sharply over the past 15 years, from 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2010 to 0.88 million bpd in 2024, due to sanctions and lack of investment. Output hovered around 1 million bpd between September and October 2025, but fell to 0.86 million bpd in November 2025 amid renewed sanctions and tensions with the United States. Oil exports dropped to 0.67 million bpd.
The sale of stored crude in Venezuela, both floating and onshore, and the lifting of sanctions could temporarily boost oil production to around 1 million bpd. However, this is unlikely to have a significant impact on the global market.
Venezuela Faces Structural Challenges to Boost Oil Output
Venezuela will face significant challenges in raising production by 1 to 1.5 million barrels per day (MMbpd), which could allow a long-term return to its 2010 output level of 2.5 million bpd. Achieving this would require substantial investment to modernize the country’s deteriorated infrastructure. Most of Venezuela’s reserves are extra-heavy/sour crude, the production of which demands advanced technical expertise typically provided by major international oil companies. Renewed investment from U.S. and other foreign oil firms would depend on a reliable regulatory framework and fiscal stability in the sector, especially given the expropriation of U.S. oil company assets in 2007.
Iran and Russia’s Position in the Global Market
Iran remains a significantly larger oil supplier globally, with production at 3.5 million bpd and exports of approximately 2 million bpd. Iranian crude supply has remained relatively stable despite tighter U.S. sanctions (in its November sanctions, the Office of Foreign Assets Control targeted a network of Iranian trading and shipping companies). Major disruptions to Iranian oil production would push prices higher, although the overall impact would likely be limited due to the current global supply surplus.
Russia’s oil production remains virtually unchanged at 9.3 million bpd under sanctions, with most exports redirected to China and India. Recently imposed U.S. and U.K. sanctions on Russian oil companies Lukoil and Rosneft could reduce Russian oil exports, as these producers account for around 50% of total exports. Conversely, a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine and the lifting of sanctions would likely have a limited short-term impact on Russian volumes but could increase price volatility in an already oversupplied market.
OPEC+ spare capacity, estimated at 4 million bpd, will support the market in the event of supply disruptions. OPEC’s strategy and its balance between price support and market share retention will remain a key factor for the oil market, particularly in the face of potential disruptions or rising supply from non-OPEC countries.
The year 2025 will have been a series of upward flow headlines for ETFs in the United States and, when looking at the consolidated data, the record high announced in the latest ETFGI report will come as no surprise. The breakdown by asset class confirms the trend: passive management is prevailing in equities. A third conclusion also stands out—the extreme concentration of the sector, dominated by three major brands: iShares (BlackRock), Vanguard, and State Street.
A Historic Year
The year 2025 was exceptional for the exchange-traded fund (ETF) industry in the United States, marking record highs in both assets under management and net capital inflows. ETFs in the U.S. attracted a total of $1.50 trillion in net inflows during 2025, driving total assets to $13.43 trillion by the end of December 2025, a record high for the U.S. industry.
Growth in Assets and Net Inflows in 2025
The most notable figure in the report is that during 2025, investors contributed $1.50 trillion in net inflows to the U.S. ETF sector, an unprecedented figure in the historical series. Monthly net inflows also showed strong and sustained momentum, with $223 billion in December 2025 alone. This flow continues a long-standing trend of capital accumulation by institutional and retail investors into exchange-traded funds.
As a result of these significant capital inflows, total assets under management by ETFs in the U.S. reached $13.43 trillion at the end of December 2025, far exceeding the $10.35 trillion recorded at the end of 2024. This growth represents a year-over-year increase of nearly 28% in assets under management, indicating a strong investor preference for the flexibility, cost-efficiency, and liquidity that ETFs offer compared to traditional investment vehicles.
This phenomenon is not isolated: other ETFGI reports show that the global ETF industry also experienced rapid growth in assets and flows in 2025, reaching record levels of over $19 trillion by the end of November, with more than 78 consecutive months of positive net inflows.
Main Segments and Types of ETFs
A key aspect of the expansion of the U.S. market in 2025 was the differentiated contribution of ETF types.
Equity ETFs were the ones that attracted the most flows, with $149.00 billion in December 2025 alone, bringing annual flows to $656.095 billion. This demonstrates continued investor preference for diversified exposure to U.S. and global equities, according to the report.
Fixed income also saw positive inflows, with $23.079 billion in December and a total of $258.014 billion in 2025. This reflects investor interest in lower-risk instruments or risk-adjusted returns amid equity market volatility.
Commodity ETFs, though more modest compared to equities and bonds, captured $9.033 billion in December, and their cumulative flows rose significantly compared to the previous year.
A notable trend this year was the growth of actively managed ETFs. These products attracted *$43.079 billion in December alone, totaling $514.056 billion in 2025, well above figures from previous years. The increased adoption of active ETFs indicates that while passive management remains dominant, investors are willing to pay for more specialized strategies that seek higher risk-adjusted returns.
Main Providers and Market Concentration
The report also analyzes market share among the leading ETF providers in the United States. The data reveal a clear concentration among the sector’s leaders, with three firms controlling more than two-thirds of the U.S. ETF market:
iShares (BlackRock) remains the dominant provider with $3.99 trillion under management, representing approximately 29.7% of the total U.S. ETF market.
Vanguard follows closely with $3.86 trillion and a market share of 28.7%*, solidifying its position as one of the most influential managers of passive products.
State Street SPDR ETFs ranks third, with $1.83 trillion and a 13.7% market share.
Together, these three providers hold approximately 72.1%* of total ETF assets in the United States, while the remaining 457 issuers each represent less than 6%, highlighting the strong concentration of the U.S. ETF market in the hands of a few players.
Capital Group has appointed Patricia Hidalgo as Managing Director and Head of Latin America to lead its distribution efforts in the region. Based in the firm’s New York office, Hidalgo will report to Mario Gonzalez, Head of the Client Group for Spain, US Offshore, and Latin America.
According to the company, in this role, Hidalgo will help drive the firm’s strategy to expand and deepen relationships with institutional investors and distributors across the region, including pension fund managers in Mexico, Chile, and Colombia, as well as central banks and sovereign wealth funds.
With extensive experience in the region, Hidalgo joins Capital Group from J.P. Morgan Asset Management, where she spent over a decade in various roles, most recently as Head of Alternatives for Latin America. Prior to that, she worked at CitiBanamex in Mexico. A native of Spain, Patricia has lived and worked in Madrid, London, Hong Kong, Mexico City, and New York, bringing a truly global perspective to her new role.
Following the announcement, Mario Gonzalez, Head of the Client Group for Spain, US Offshore, and Latin America at Capital Group, stated: “We are pleased to welcome Patricia to Capital Group. Her deep knowledge of the Latin American market and proven ability to build lasting client relationships will be key as we expand in this high-growth region. This appointment reinforces our commitment to working closely with clients and delivering time-tested, long-term investment strategies and solutions tailored to their needs across Latin America.”
For her part, Patricia Hidalgo, Managing Director for Latin America at Capital Group, commented: “I am delighted to join Capital Group and lead our growth in Latin America. The region offers tremendous opportunities to build lasting partnerships, and I look forward to working with the team to bring Capital Group’s world-class investment expertise and long-term solutions to clients across Latin America.”
Santiago Leal Singer, Director of Financial Markets Strategy at Grupo Financiero Banorte
Mexican Financial Group Banorte starts the year with recognition for in-house talent. Santiago Leal Singer, Director of Financial Markets Strategy at Banorte, has been named a member of the 2026 Class of the Future Leaders Group (FLG) of the Institute of International Finance (IIF).
“Grupo Financiero Banorte reaffirms its position as a benchmark of excellence, leadership, and talent development in the financial sector,” the firm stated in a press release, expressing its pride in the appointment of its executive to this influential global finance group.
“This designation strengthens Banorte’s strategic voice in the leading global financial forums and solidifies its presence in the international leadership ecosystem. It also enhances the group’s value proposition for clients, investors, and employees by incorporating best practices, a global outlook, and world-class strategic capabilities,” the institution added.
Based in Washington, D.C., the IIF is the global association for the financial industry, representing nearly 400 members across more than 60 countries. Its membership includes commercial and investment banks, asset managers, insurers, stock exchanges, sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds, central banks, and development banks. The Institute serves as the primary voice of the private sector on issues of regulation, financial stability, and global economic policy.
The Future Leaders Group was created by the IIF in 2014 as a program to identify and connect the individuals who will shape the future of the industry over the next decade. Its members are rigorously selected for their leadership potential and strategic vision. The 2026 Class is composed of 60 participants, each representing an IIF member institution, and spans 32 countries and a variety of areas of expertise.
Based in Mexico City, Leal leads the bank’s outlook on fixed income, currencies, and commodities within the Economic Research division. He is responsible for shaping macroeconomic and market narratives, translating global events into forecasts and investment insights that inform decision-making across multiple business lines and stakeholder groups.
Over more than 12 years at Banorte, his role has evolved from a focus on global macroeconomic and emerging market analysis to a leadership position at the intersection of markets and institutional strategy. He is a member of the bank’s main investment committees and maintains active dialogue with other financial institutions, contributing to the exchange between markets and investment governance.
He is also a frequent speaker and panelist at industry forums. He holds an MBA from Columbia University in New York and a degree in Industrial Engineering from Universidad Iberoamericana.
Photo courtesyDonald Trump, President of the United States, speaks to the media before boarding Marine One on Friday, January 9, 2026.
It has been 365 days since Donald Trump was sworn in as President of the United States, and aside from the cold, little about that January 20, 2025, resembles today. One year ago, international asset managers saw his term as a clear opportunity for U.S. equities, driven by his campaign promises, and expected reduced uncertainty, since “Trump’s character and style were already known.” However, the past twelve months have brought surprises and, above all, significant changes in geopolitics and trade policy.
While global economic prospects have modestly improved, uncertainty remains. Experts highlight that as of January 20, 2026, the focus lies on asset valuations, rising debt, geoeconomic realignment, and the rapid deployment of artificial intelligence, all of which are creating both opportunities and risks. In fact, according to the latest edition of the Chief Economists’ Outlook from the World Economic Forum, while 53% of chief economists expect global economic conditions to weaken over the next year, this marks a notable improvement from the 72% who held that view in September 2025.
“This survey of chief economists reveals three defining trends for 2026: the sharp rise in AI investment and its implications for the global economy; debt levels approaching critical thresholds amid unprecedented changes in fiscal and monetary policies; and shifts in trade alignment. Governments and businesses will need to navigate short-term uncertainty with agility, while continuing to build resilience and invest in long-term growth fundamentals,” says Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director at the World Economic Forum.
AI and Other Asset Valuations
Following a year of exceptional performance, the debate over whether we are in an AI bubble has taken center stage among asset managers. According to MFS IM, the question is misguided: focusing on whether AI euphoria is excessive distracts from the broader and more critical issue of misallocated capital and the physical limits that constrain growth.
Indeed, equity gains concentrated around AI have split chief economists’ opinions. While 52% expect U.S. AI-linked stocks to decline over the next year, 40% foresee further gains. Should valuations drop sharply, 74% believe the effects would ripple through the global economy. The outlook for cryptocurrencies is even gloomier: 62% anticipate further declines following recent market turbulence, and 54% believe gold has already peaked after its recent rallies.
Regarding AI’s potential returns, expectations vary widely by region and sector. Roughly four out of five chief economists expect productivity gains within two years in the United States and China. The IT sector is projected to adopt AI the fastest, with nearly three-quarters anticipating imminent productivity improvements. Financial services, supply chains, healthcare, engineering, and retail follow as “fast-adoption sectors,” with expected gains within one to two years. By company size, firms with 1,000 or more employees are expected to benefit first: 77% of economists foresee significant productivity gains for these companies within two years.
The employment outlook related to AI is also expected to evolve. Two-thirds anticipate moderate job losses over the next two years, though long-term views diverge significantly: 57% expect a net job loss in ten years, while 32% foresee net gains as new occupations emerge.
Debt and Tough Decisions
Rising debt and public deficits mark another contrast with last year. Managing these elevated levels has become a central challenge for economic policymakers, especially amid growing spending pressures. Global debt levels have hit historic highs, with debt-to-GDP ratios exceeding 100% in many major economies. In the United States, the deficit remains unusually high for a period of full employment. Higher debt servicing costs are putting upward pressure on long-term bond yields, while political instability in countries such as France, the United Kingdom, and Japan is adding to the uncertainty, notes Paul Diggle, chief economist at Aberdeen Investments.
An overwhelming majority of chief economists (97%) expect defense spending to increase in advanced economies, and 74% expect the same in emerging markets. Spending on digital and energy infrastructure is also expected to rise. In most other sectors, spending is projected to remain stable, though a majority of economists foresee declines in environmental protection spending in both advanced (59%) and emerging (61%) economies.
Opinions are split on the likelihood of sovereign debt crises in advanced economies, while nearly half (47%) see them as likely in emerging markets over the next year. A strong majority expect governments to rely on higher inflation to ease the debt burden—67% in advanced economies and 61% in emerging ones.
Tax increases are also considered likely: 62% expect them in advanced economies, and 53% in emerging markets. Over the next five years, 53% of economists expect emerging markets to resort to debt restructuring or default as a management strategy, compared to only 6% in advanced economies.
A Consequence of the New Geopolitics
Announcements from the Trump administration on trade and geopolitical matters have reshaped the global landscape, if not dismantled the traditional international framework altogether. As a result, global trade and investment are adjusting to a new competitive reality.
According to chief economists’ forecasts, tariffs on imports between the United States and China are expected to remain generally stable, though competition may intensify in other areas. Notably, 91% expect U.S. restrictions on technology exports to China to remain or increase; 84% anticipate the same for China’s restrictions on critical minerals.
In this new context, 94% expect an increase in bilateral trade agreements, and 69% foresee a rise in regional trade deals. “Eighty-nine percent expect Chinese exports to non-U.S. markets to continue growing, while economists are divided on the future volume of global trade. Meanwhile, nearly half expect international investment flows to keep rising, and 57% anticipate an increase in foreign direct investment (FDI) into the United States, compared to just 9% who expect greater inflows into China,” the report notes.
Beyond China, attention is now turning to Greenland. “By making the imposition of new tariffs conditional on Europe’s acceptance of his plan to acquire Greenland, Donald Trump is taking another step in using trade as a tool of geopolitical pressure. Beyond the theatrics of the statement lies a doctrine now widely accepted: alliances are no longer stable frameworks, but renegotiable power relationships. This political strategy comes with a potentially significant economic cost, between 0.2% and 0.5% in growth depending on the severity of the tariff threat,” says Michaël Nizard, Head of Multi-Assets & Overlay at Edmond de Rothschild AM.
Photo courtesyEduardo Ferrín and Miguel Ángel Fernández, Founders of Wealnest
The Wealnest Wealth Well-Being Platform, designed to help users organize, visualize, and manage all their assets in a simple and intuitive way, is now active. This pioneering initiative has been developed technologically by a Spanish team with an international vision, and it relies on specialized partners for functions such as valuation, security, and open banking.
The project is led by Eduardo Ferrín and Miguel Ángel Fernández, two executives with extensive experience in management, strategy, and technological development. It is aimed at individuals with medium to high net worth who currently manage their wealth manually or in a fragmented way. It is also designed for professionals, entrepreneurs, families, or emerging family offices seeking uncomplicated control over their assets.
With over 250 subscribers from 15 different countries, who have registered assets worth more than €300 million, Wealnest is redefining what it means to manage wealth in order to live with peace of mind. The project is currently undergoing rapid international expansion across Europe—Germany, France, and the United Kingdom—and the Americas—the United States, Mexico, Colombia, Argentina, Chile, and Peru—through a network of partners. It aspires to become the global reference marketplace for managing wealth well-being.
The concept of “wealth well-being” is at the core of Wealnest’s offering. It goes beyond simply having a solid financial situation; it’s about living with clarity, balance, and oversight over everything a person has built. The goal is to achieve the peace of mind that comes from knowing that both liquidity and owned assets are under control, without losing sight of the future, by planning for both retirement and legacy with foresight.
Miguel Ángel Fernández emphasizes that “currently, around 15% of global wealth is trapped in assets that don’t outpace inflation, so understanding and managing your wealth with the right tools can improve that return. True wealth management shouldn’t be exclusive to the ultra-wealthy, everyone should be able to understand, control, and manage their assets using the best tools available to them.”
Eduardo Ferrín, in turn, states that “the wealth management sector is undergoing a revolution, with €450 billion in annual inheritance transfers from baby boomers to younger generations, and Wealnest meets a need the market currently does not fulfill. Our system goes beyond simply optimizing financial positions. It offers the peace of mind that your wealth is working for you in the right way and adapted to current market conditions.”
Wealnest leverages the capabilities of artificial intelligence to democratize tools that until now have only been available to large fortunes. Through a subscription model, it offers various services based on the selected tier. Even in its free version, limited to three assets, it provides real-time property valuations in major European markets and the United States. The premium version includes additional tools such as succession and retirement planning.
The platform goes beyond showing a snapshot of your wealth: it helps you understand its real value, make your assets more profitable, and plan your future with intelligence and peace of mind, in a way that is simple, intuitive, and accessible, regardless of the size of your portfolio. It combines three key differentiators: ease of use and an onboarding process designed for any user, not just financial experts; affordable pricing, well below that of other professional platforms offering similar services; and smart AI-powered assistance to improve decision-making and optimize wealth management.
The FII Institute has announced the return of the FII PRIORITY Miami Summit, which will be held from March 25to 27, 2026. The event will bring together global leaders to address a central question: how should capital move, adapt, and lead in an increasingly fragmented world.
Under the theme “Capital in Motion,” the 2026 summit will gather policymakers, investors, innovators, and decision-makers to explore how capital, technology, and policies can drive sustainable and inclusive growth, with the Americas at the heart of global transformation.
In its fourth edition, the gathering reaffirms Miami’s strategic role as a bridge between North and South America and as a gateway to international markets. Following the recent success of the FII PRIORITY Asia Summit in Tokyo, Miami will offer a cross-sectional perspective on investment flows, economic resilience, and opportunity generation.
“Miami is not just a place, it is a symbol. At a time when capital is being reassigned, revalued, and reinvented, FII PRIORITY Miami will go beyond dialogue to generate action, shaping impactful partnerships, strategies, and decisions,” stated Richard Attias, Chairman of the Executive Committee and Acting CEO of the FII Institute.
Highlights of the summit’s key content include:
High-level dialogues with global leaders, policymakers, investors, and CEOs on capital deployment, emerging technologies, and growth focused on the Americas.
Strategic closed-door roundtables aimed at influencing investment priorities and delivering concrete outcomes.
Thought leadership and exclusive analysis, co-created with global partners and presented during the event.
The 2026 edition will also mark the beginning of a key year for the institute, leading up to the tenth edition of the Future Investment Initiative (FII 10) in Riyadh at the end of October, consolidating the FII Institute as the global platform where investment, innovation, and policy converge to define the future.
Registration is now open for FII Institute members, partners, media, and invited delegates. For more information and to register, visit the FII PRIORITY Miami 2026 page. More details about the program and speakers will be announced soon.
