The digital asset market is undergoing a new stage of maturation that is beginning to change the way private banks and high-net-worth investors evaluate its potential as an asset class. Far from the extreme fragmentation that characterized previous cycles, liquidity is now concentrating in a small group of crypto assets, giving rise to an “upper tier” that is beginning to show characteristics of a more stable and accessible market for professional investors.
This is according to the OTC Markets 2025 report, prepared by Wintermute, one of the leading market makers in the crypto ecosystem, which analyzes the evolution of OTC activity and institutional flows.
The study highlights that a growing share of traded volume is concentrated in large-cap digital assets, while the relative weight of smaller, less liquid tokens is declining.
For private banking, this consolidation process is crucial. Greater liquidity concentration improves execution conditions, reduces price impact, and brings greater predictability, key elements for including digital assets in portfolios managed under stricter risk criteria.
In this context, the report suggests that the crypto market is beginning to show a clearer distinction between potentially investable assets and a more speculative universe.
The study emphasizes the growing role of OTC trading as the preferred channel for institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals. Unlike traditional exchanges, the OTC market allows for large-size orders to be handled with lower friction and greater discretion, features especially valued by private banks and family offices.
According to Wintermute, the profile of participants in this segment has become more professional, with increasing demand for solutions tailored to institutional standards.
Another key point is that this consolidation does not imply a homogeneous expansion of the crypto market as a whole, but rather a more pronounced hierarchy. In practice, this forces wealth managers to adopt a more selective approach—focusing on assets with sufficient market depth, robust infrastructure, and greater acceptance among institutional investors.
In this scenario, the inclusion of crypto assets in private banking portfolios is no longer merely opportunistic but is becoming part of a broader conversation about diversification, correlations, and strategic allocation. The report suggests that the shift toward a more mature market structure could lay the groundwork for gradual adoption, always contingent on clear regulatory frameworks and proper risk management.
History suggests major dollar sell-offs tend to occur in consecutive years. This is the conclusion reached by Bank of America after analyzing the behavior of the U.S. dollar since the 1980s. Looking ahead to this year, the institution argues that the closest historical analogues point to an additional 8% decline in the Dollar Index (DXY Index) in 2026.
“2018 was the exception, but it coincided with Fed rate hikes, the trade war, and weak European growth. For now, the dollar remains in broad downward trends against G10 currencies. The fact that global equities are outperforming U.S. equities at the start of 2026 warrants attention,” they argue.
Reference to 1995
Focusing on the dollar’s decline in 2025, the institution explains that in the main historical analogues with the highest correlation to last year’s dollar movements, the dollar’s weakness continued the following year in four out of five cases. “The average of the five best analogues would imply an additional -8% drop in the dollar in 2026. Among these analogues, 1995 may be the most relevant for 2026, as it also featured a soft landing of the U.S. economy driven by technology and Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year. The dollar weakened by -4.2% in 1995, close to our forecast that the DXY index will fall toward the 95 level in 2026,” the report notes.
They also highlight that 2018 was an unusual year in which the dollar reversed its 2017 losses and rose by 4.7% due to Fed rate hikes, headlines surrounding the U.S., China trade war, and a weak eurozone economy. According to their analysis, despite a moderate rebound toward the end of 2025, the dollar remains in broad downward trends against G10 currencies. “Global equity markets also began 2026 outperforming the U.S. This factor deserves attention, as equity flows and hedging could become a clearly bearish trigger for the dollar in 2026,” they add.
Years “Similar” to 2025
The dollar fell by 9.4% in 2025 against G10 currencies, according to the DXY index, making it the second-largest annual dollar decline in the past two decades. In identifying the historical years most closely correlated with the dollar’s performance in 2025 and drawing possible implications for 2026, the institution highlights 2005, 1995, and 1975.
Since 1975, the five closest historical analogues have shown an average correlation of 81% with the dollar’s performance in 2025, the report states.
In those five years, the dollar weakened by an average of 10.5%, with most of the decline concentrated in the first half of the year, similar to what occurred in 2025. And in all five historical analogues, the dollar continued to fall the following year, with the sole exception of 2018. On average, the dollar recorded a further 8.3% drop in the subsequent year.
The report also argues that 1995 may be the most relevant analogue for 2026 among the DXY’s imperfect historical comparisons. According to the bank’s analysis, tech-driven growth helped the U.S. economy achieve a soft landing instead of a recession. Additionally, the Fed began cutting rates in the second half of 1995, even though inflation was closer to 3% than 2%.
In light of these findings, the conclusion is that large dollar sell-offs rarely happen in isolation: “This bearish quantitative outcome supports our base case for currencies in 2026, where we expect further dollar weakness due to interest rate convergence between the U.S. and the rest of the world post-Powell, stimulus in the eurozone and China, and increased currency hedging on dollar-denominated assets.”
Outlook for 2026
Looking ahead, Bank of America expects the U.S. economy to struggle after a temporary setback in Q4 2025 caused by the government shutdown, and sees the Fed continuing to cut rates after midyear. Under this scenario, the 1995 analogue alone would imply a further 4.2% decline in the dollar, closely in line with the bank’s forecast for the DXY to fall toward the 95 level in 2026.
Another key observation is that divergence in equity markets could prolong the dollar’s downward trend in 2026. “Although U.S. stock markets reached new all-time highs at the start of 2026, their performance has lagged most global equity markets. With global central bank easing cycles nearing their end, the FX regime is gradually shifting from being almost entirely rate-driven, as it was between 2022 and 2024, to being more influenced by equities. The relative performance of equity markets across countries should be watched closely, as continued divergence like we’ve seen so far in 2026 could become a major bearish driver for the dollar,” the Bank of America report concludes.
Photo courtesyLarrainVial’s Distribution Team for the US Offshore Market
LarrainVial (LV) becomes the largest Third-Party Distributor in Latin America and the US Offshore Channel
According to the firm, this leadership position has been reinforced by the expansion of its long-standing distribution alliance with Invesco, which now extends to the US Offshore market.
For more than 18 years, Invesco has collaborated with LV in distribution throughout Latin America. Currently, LV manages 9.2 billion dollars in UCITS mutual funds and 15.6 billion dollars in Invesco ETFs, “a track record that underscores the depth and strength of this relationship,” they stated. The alliance will now extend to the US Offshore channel for Invesco’s UCITS products, leveraging LV’s proven expertise and scale to replicate this success.
Sales efforts in the US Offshore market will be led by María Elena Isaza and Julieta Henke, Managing Directors and Co-Heads of Sales for LV’s US Offshore Distribution, who will continue to lead Robeco’s commercial initiatives under LV’s multi-firm distribution model.
According to the firm, Alejandra Saldías will join the team and play a key role in designing the ETF sales strategy as Head of ETF Sales Latam and US Offshore, ensuring that LV’s strong ETF track record in Latin America translates into meaningful growth in the US Offshore market. Additionally, Robert (Rhett) Baughan, Jr. will continue as Head of U.S. Offshore Distribution at Invesco, working closely with the LV team to strengthen client relationships and expand reach.
Following this announcement, Andrés Bulnes, Partner and Global Head of Distribution at LarrainVial, commented: “For more than 90 years, LarrainVial has earned the trust of clients throughout the region. Deepening our alliance with Invesco reinforces our shared vision of delivering exceptional service and innovative solutions. Together, we are well positioned to support clients in the U.S. Offshore market with top-tier investment opportunities.”
US Offshore Market
By joining forces, LV brings distribution capability, scale, and a dedicated team, significantly strengthening its presence and reach in the U.S. Offshore market. This development benefits the entire ecosystem and positions LV as the leading third-party distributor in the U.S. Offshore segment, enabling deeper client relationships, greater share of wallet, and more effective communication.
LV US Offshore currently represents Robeco, Invesco, Brown Advisory, PineBridge, and LarrainVial Asset Management, with a team composed of María Elena Isaza, Julieta Henke, and Cala Aguiar (Robeco and Invesco), and Matías Paulsen, Isabel Bachelet, and Paulina Esposito (Brown Advisory, PineBridge, LV Asset Management).
Founded in 1934 in Chile, LarrainVial has evolved over nine decades, transitioning from an equities firm to a comprehensive financial institution with operations in Chile, Peru, Colombia, Mexico, Uruguay, Argentina, Panama, and the United States. Our more than 900 collaborators across eight countries are led by 27 executive partners, and since 2010, we have operated as a registered broker-dealer in the United States under the supervision of FINRA/SEC. Across all its business lines, LV manages 65 billion dollars in assets under management (AUM), with Third-Party Distribution being a core pillar (53 billion dollars under distribution).
A new analysis by Ocorian, specialists in asset services for private markets and corporate and fiduciary administration, reveals that assets in infrastructure funds have reached a record high of $1.35 billion. Their value has more than doubled since 2020, when it stood at $652 billion, and has grown 10% since December 2024, according to the latest Global Asset Monitor from Ocorian.
The firm projects a further 70% increase by 2030, which would bring total assets in global infrastructure funds to $2.3 trillion.
The analysis shows that nearly half (47%) of the underlying assets in infrastructure funds are located in North America, while two-fifths are in Europe. Europe is nearing North America in terms of fund domicile, and Asia-based funds represent about one-sixth of the total.
“Infrastructure investment AUM has grown 10% this year, reaching $1.35 trillion. AI infrastructure, the energy transition, and decarbonization are key drivers of this growth, showing that investors are committing long-term capital to critical sectors and assets that support real economic resilience and sustained returns,” says Yegor Lanovenko, Global Co-Head of Fund Services at Ocorian.
“At Ocorian, we support alternative asset managers in navigating operational and regulatory complexity across the entire investment lifecycle, especially where operational scale makes a difference and investor needs and profiles are rapidly evolving across asset classes,” Lanovenko concludes.
Napoleón Lazardi, founder and CEO of Pitagora Capital & Consulting, knows firsthand what it means to leave Venezuela and rebuild from scratch abroad. Born in the land of arepas and having lived outside the country for over a decade, his personal journey, which took him through Europe and Latin America before establishing himself in the world of financial analysis and technology, shapes his view on how an extreme political shock might affect markets and, especially, Venezuelan capital currently held offshore.
For Lazardi, the recent arrest of Nicolás Maduro should be seen less as an immediate turning point and more as an exogenous risk shock. “The market doesn’t change the final value of the bond; what changes is the probability of default and its distribution over time,” he explains, referring to the sovereign bonds of his home country. In a context where Venezuelan bonds trade outside formal markets, with low volume and blurred pricing references, such events trigger abrupt reactions, curve distortions, and short-term panic.
From a technical perspective, the Pitagora Capital CEO underscores that Venezuela’s market is currently unprepared to absorb such shocks without amplifying volatility. “There’s a collapse in the pricing system and a redistribution of risk toward the short term. That doesn’t mean value disappears, it just shifts over time,” he notes, drawing on probabilistic models he developed through his experience in emerging markets like Argentina, where he once lived.
Still, the focus extends beyond bonds. One of the major unknowns is what might happen to the Venezuelan capital that left the country in recent years. With a diaspora estimated at nearly eight million people, Lazardi is blunt: a massive repatriation of capital is not an immediate scenario.
“Venezuelan capital doesn’t return quickly or automatically. Much of those assets are already structured offshore, primarily in the United States, and follow wealth preservation logics, not short-term opportunism,” he states.
Even in the event of a profound political shift or greater international involvement, the analyst warns that several often-overlooked factors remain: legal timelines, litigation processes, lack of infrastructure, and the real capacity for reinvestment. By his estimates, Venezuela would need around $180 billion and deep structural reforms to rebuild its productive base, particularly in the energy sector, which has seen nearly two decades without sustained investment.
“Production doesn’t recover overnight. The market knows this, which is why it prices in risk even under more open scenarios,” he explains. In that sense, U.S. presence or backing alone does not guarantee a swift normalization of investment flows.
Paradoxically, Lazardi acknowledges that Venezuela is currently a country full of potential opportunities. Energy, tourism, transport, and financial services stand out as attractive sectors in the long term. But the starting point is extremely low. “The technological infrastructure is destroyed. The foundation needed to support a modern development process simply doesn’t exist today,” he warns.
For Venezuelan capital abroad, from family savings to more sophisticated portfolios, the message is clear: the return will depend less on a one-off political event and more on the institutional, legal, and technological reconstruction of the country. “The market isn’t pricing in certainties; it’s pricing in probabilities,” Lazardi concludes. And for now, those probabilities remain steeped in uncertainty.
It seems the Trump administration intends to make the final months of Jerome Powell’s tenure at the Federal Reserve more difficult. Over the weekend, the Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into the Federal Reserve (Fed) over the renovation of the central bank’s headquarters. Jerome Powell, its chairman, views this as a pretext to escalate pressure on the Fed, as President Trump remains dissatisfied with monetary policy, putting the central bank’s independence at risk.
How Have Markets Responded to This Latest Episode?
According to experts, as in previous cases, the Fed’s lack of independence doesn’t go unnoticed, and markets don’t like it. “The global financial ecosystem has entered a phase of systemic volatility and power realignment reminiscent of periods of intense geopolitical friction in the 20th century. The convergence of an institutional crisis at the heart of the Federal Reserve, an aggressive resource-grabbing policy in the Southern Hemisphere, and escalating tensions in the Arctic and Middle East has fractured the stability narrative that dominated the end of last year,” says Felipe Mendoza, CEO of IMB Capital Quants.
Jon Butcher, Senior U.S. Economist at Aberdeen, notes that the initial market reaction appears negative, with rising risks that a devaluation could weigh on the U.S. dollar, equities, and bonds. In particular, he warns, “the long end of the curve could see an increase in term premiums.” In his view, this also raises questions about the composition of the Fed’s Board of Governors. “A new chair is expected to be appointed this month, likely filling the seat of Stephen Miran, whose term ends on January 31. However, Republican Senator Thom Tillis has stated he will oppose any Fed nomination until this legal matter is fully resolved,” Butcher explains.
Powell’s term as a governor runs through 2028, and he had been expected to step down once his term as chair ends in May. However, his recent statement raises questions about whether he will remain on the Board to defend the Fed’s independence despite legal risks. “Regardless of whether this legal action has merit, it signals the administration’s willingness to continue pressuring the Fed to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy. Given that President Donald Trump is also considering fiscal measures that would widen the deficit, we expect growing concerns over fiscal dominance and the external risk of yield curve control,” Butcher adds.
The Question of Independence
Paul Donovan, Chief Economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, believes that if the move is aimed at weakening the Fed’s independence, it could backfire on the administration. He speculates that Powell now has “less incentive to resign as a Fed governor, given the publicly defiant stance he has taken against this criminal investigation.”
“Trump doesn’t directly appoint the next Fed chair—he only nominates the candidate,” he continues. “That candidate must either be a sitting governor or fill a board vacancy. The Senate must confirm the next Fed chair, and that process could become more complicated if this situation is seen as a direct attack on the central bank’s independence.”
Donovan outlines a more extreme scenario, suggesting that if a future interest rate decision is particularly close, “these explicit attacks on central bank independence could push FOMC members toward a more hawkish stance as a show of autonomy.” In fact, he argues, based on market reactions, that may be the safest response from a bond market perspective. “The need to underline independence could become a key factor in rate-setting, both institutionally and in terms of market consequences,” he emphasizes.
The Gold Market Narrative
For Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, it’s clear that concerns over the Fed’s independence are being reflected in the commodities market. “Gold and silver reacted positively to the news, rising 1.5% and 5% respectively in early Monday trading. We see increased interference in the Fed as a clearly bullish wildcard for precious metals in 2026. While silver is expected to respond more strongly to such concerns, we still believe its outperformance relative to gold has become excessive,” says Menke.
He concludes that, although the U.S. dollar is also weakening, the reaction in precious metals markets, especially silver, seems somewhat disproportionate. For Menke, growing interference with the Fed and doubts about its independence are among the main bullish wildcards for precious metals in 2026. “With Powell’s expected departure in May, the future of the Fed’s independence will hinge on whether his successor acts independently or aligns closely with the administration. Ongoing concerns over the Fed’s independence and the U.S. dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency could drive more safe-haven investment into gold and silver, pushing prices even higher than current levels,” he adds.
Powell Defends the Fed
In a rare statement from a central bank chair, Powell said the move represents “an unprecedented action” that should be understood “in the broader context of the administration’s threats and continued pressure.” He stated:
“This new threat has nothing to do with my June testimony or the renovation of the Federal Reserve buildings. Nor does it relate to the Congressional oversight function; the Fed, through testimony and other public disclosures, has made every effort to keep Congress informed about the renovation project. These are pretexts. The threat of criminal charges stems from the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best judgment of what serves the public interest, rather than following the President’s preferences. The real issue is whether the Fed will continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions, or whether monetary policy will be dictated by political pressure or intimidation.”
To help restore confidence in the monetary institution, he added that throughout his service under four different administrations, he has performed his duties without fear or political favoritism, focusing solely on the Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment.
“Public service sometimes requires standing firm in the face of threats. I will continue to do the job the Senate confirmed me to do, with integrity and a commitment to serve the American people,” Powell concluded in his statement.
The global bull market could continue in 2026, supported by growth in corporate earnings and resilient economic activity, although equity gains are unlikely to match the strong advance seen in 2025, according to Goldman Sachs Research. The firm expects continued global economic expansion across all regions and further moderate rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
“Given this macroeconomic backdrop, it would be unusual to see a significant equity pullback or a bear market without a recession, even starting from elevated valuations,” writes Peter Oppenheimer, Chief Global Equity Strategist at Goldman Sachs Research, in the report Global Equity Strategy 2026 Outlook: Tech Tonic—A Broadening Bull Market.
Looking back, diversification was a central theme for Goldman Sachs Research last year. “Investors who diversified across regions in 2025 were rewarded for the first time in many years, and analysts expect diversification to continue in 2026, extending to investment factors such as growth and value, as well as across different sectors,” they explain.
Outlook for Global Equities in 2026
“We believe that returns in 2026 will be driven more by earnings growth than by rising valuations,” says Oppenheimer. The 12-month global forecast suggests that stock prices, weighted by regional market capitalization, could rise by 9% and deliver a total return of 11% including dividends, in U.S. dollars. “Most of these returns are driven by earnings,” he adds. Commodity indexes could also advance this year, with gains in precious metals once again offsetting declines in energy, as was the case in 2025, according to Goldman Sachs.
Diversification and Market Cycle
Oppenheimer’s team analyzes the typical phases of market cycles: despair during bear markets, a brief phase of hope after the initial rebound, a longer period of growth driven by rising earnings, and finally, a phase of optimism as investor confidence builds.
According to this analysis, equities are currently in the optimism phase of a cycle that began with the 2020 bear market during the pandemic. This stage is typically accompanied by rising valuations, suggesting some upside risks to baseline forecasts.
Should Investors Diversify in 2026?
Geographic diversification benefited investors in 2025, an unusual outcome, as the United States underperformed other major markets for the first time in nearly 15 years. Equity returns in Europe, China, and Asia were nearly double those of the S&P 500 in dollar terms, supported by the weakness of the U.S. currency.
While U.S. equities were driven primarily by earnings growth, especially among large tech companies, markets outside the U.S. showed a more balanced mix of improving corporate results and rising valuations. The growth-adjusted valuation gap between the U.S. and the rest of the world narrowed last year.
“We expect this convergence in growth-adjusted valuation ratios to continue in 2026, even though absolute valuations in the U.S. are likely to remain higher,” notes Oppenheimer’s team.
Diversification is expected to continue offering potential to enhance risk-adjusted returns in 2026. Investors may consider broad geographic exposure, including a greater focus on emerging markets, while combining growth and value stocks and diversifying across sectors.
Elevated Valuations and Sector Opportunities
Although equities performed strongly in 2025, outperforming both commodities and bonds, gains were not linear. The S&P 500 saw a nearly 20% correction between mid-February and April before rebounding. The sharp recovery that followed has left valuations at historically high levels across all regions, including Japan, Europe, and emerging markets.
Oppenheimer notes that non-technology sectors could perform well this year, and investors may benefit from companies that indirectly gain from capital investment by tech firms. Interest is also expected to grow in companies outside the tech sector as new capabilities related to artificial intelligence begin to materialize.
Is There a Bubble in Artificial Intelligence?
Market interest in artificial intelligence remains intense, though this does not necessarily signal a bubble. The dominance of the tech sector began after the financial crisis and has been supported by stronger-than-average earnings growth.
While the share prices of major tech companies have risen sharply, valuations are not as extreme as in past cycles, such as the peak of the tech bubble in 2000.
The year begins with few surprises on the macroeconomic front. The U.S. labor market remains in a gray area: hiring appears sluggish, yet there are no significant increases in layoffs. The December ADP private employment report came in below expectations (41,000 vs. the expected 50,000), although it confirms a trend of stability since mid-2025. For Friday’s payroll report, an increase of around 60,000 jobs is anticipated, along with a slight improvement in the unemployment rate from 4.6% to 4.5%.
The November JOLTS survey reinforced this mixed picture: job openings declined from 7.67 to 7.15 million, but voluntary quits rose, typically a sign of worker confidence. Layoffs remain stable. The message? A fragile balance, with no clear signs of acceleration or systemic deterioration. Even so, the divergence between public and private employment could distort the broader interpretation. The BLS’s upcoming methodological revision in February could mark a turning point in how labor data is assessed.
In this context, the Fed maintains its “wait and see” approach, with growing attention on employment trends as a key variable for adjusting monetary policy. The possibility of an additional rate cut by mid-2026 will largely depend on how the labor market evolves in the second quarter.
Growth, CAPEX, and Focus on the Tech Sector
The Atlanta Fed’s GDP model projects above-potential growth. The recovery remains concentrated in specific sectors, such as technology, which generate little direct employment. Focus will turn to fourth-quarter results from hyperscalers to assess whether investment momentum is holding. However, BEA data shows that tech CAPEX has lost traction in recent months.
The potential slowdown in tech investment comes at a time when the market is beginning to demand concrete results. Investors are no longer rewarding narratives alone, they are starting to penalize models without clear profitability. This could lead to a rotation toward sectors with more visible fundamentals.
ISM Services and Favorable Signals for Risk Assets
The ISM services index exceeded expectations (54.4) and showed improvements in the new orders and employment components (the latter rising to 52, entering expansion territory), while the prices subindex declined. This combination of easing inflationary pressure and modest gains in activity and employment is favorable for risk assets, helping to keep the 10-year Treasury yield below 4.2%. That, in turn, supports equity valuations and strengthens expectations that the Fed could cut rates more than markets had anticipated after its last meeting.
The composite ISM and JOLTS indicators support the case for wage moderation. Layoffs are at a six-month low, and the Challenger index fell from +23.5% to -8.3% in December. This environment reinforces the post-pandemic normalization narrative, with a soft landing increasingly gaining traction as the baseline scenario.
AI, Productivity, and Pressure on Wages
The accelerated adoption of AI tools is beginning to show effects on productivity and labor structure. While it enhances efficiency, it also reduces employees’ bargaining power, contributing to further moderation of real wages in 2026.
Although large-scale AI investment began in 2024, its impact on productivity remains uneven. Some major companies have achieved tangible improvements, while others are still in the exploratory phase. The market is beginning to differentiate between those with a clear monetization strategy and those without.
This shift in focus will also have implications for the labor market. Sectors such as financial services, marketing, and administrative technology could see workforce adjustments in favor of leaner structures.
Energy, Housing, and the Electoral Agenda
On the geopolitical front, U.S. control of Venezuela’s oil sector, with a projected release of 30 to 50 million barrels, could stabilize crude prices between $50 and $60. This aligns with Trump’s goals of protecting the purchasing power of his electoral base.
President Trump is also seeking to improve housing access. His proposals include limiting the role of institutional investors in the residential market, allowing retirement savings to be used for home purchases, and promoting mortgage portability. In addition, he is pressuring Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to acquire up to $200 billion in MBS, which would lower real estate financing costs. If fully implemented, the 30-year mortgage rate could fall below 6%, compared to the historical average spread of 1.76% over the 10-year Treasury (currently at 2.03%).
These measures carry a strong electoral component. The early 2025 ResiClub survey suggests they could help revive the housing market. Understanding the behavior of the “lower leg” of the K-shaped economy will be key to sector allocation in portfolios.
Political Stimulus and Inflation Expectations
With limited fiscal space (debt-to-GDP above 120%), Republicans may intensify the use of alternative policies: deregulation, tax cuts, selective tariff reductions, and access to cheaper financing. The OBBBA plan will play a key role in catalyzing investment during the first half of the year.
At the same time, inflation could ease more than expected in the second half of 2026. The impact of tariffs is likely to fade, and productivity gains from AI may have a meaningful disinflationary effect. Trump may also choose to ease certain trade sanctions (including those on China), aiming to support growth and broaden his electoral base.
In addition, private consumption could rebound if direct transfer mechanisms, such as checks or temporary subsidies, are activated. The conditions for a more expansive second half in terms of consumption are in place, as long as external shocks do not materialize.
Sector Rotation and a Rally Beyond Technology
While AI-related CAPEX and productivity gains are expected to remain in the spotlight, the rally could extend to previously lagging sectors such as industrials and consumer goods. Active sector selection will be key in 2026 to capture shifts in the composition of growth. Valuations continue to show exploitable dispersion.
In this environment, maintaining a balanced exposure across technology, advanced manufacturing, and services could be a prudent strategy. Additionally, cyclical sectors may benefit from an extended economic cycle if consumption holds and inflation continues to ease.
Tactically, the combination of contained interest rates, disinflationary pressure, and active policy measures could create a favorable backdrop for maintaining exposure to risk assets during the first half of the year. However, we anticipate increased volatility and will be monitoring historical parallels with U.S. midterm election periods.
Vanguard, the global investment management giant, announced that starting this year, Juan Hernández, who serves as head of LatAm, is taking on additional responsibilities as he assumes leadership of global UCITS distribution outside Europe.
“This change reflects Vanguard’s strategic focus on scaling its global distribution network, building on Juan’s proven success in developing client-focused businesses in complex, cross-border markets. By unifying oversight of UCITS distribution beyond Europe under Juan’s leadership, Vanguard aims to improve coordination, identify new market opportunities, and better serve institutional clients and intermediaries around the world,” the firm said in a statement.
The promotion was based on the professional’s experience and leadership in the region, as well as the global demand for these instruments. Under Juan Hernández’s leadership, Vanguard’s presence in Mexico and Latin America has grown.
“This move strengthens Vanguard’s global strategy and ensures we continue delivering accessible, low-cost investment solutions where demand is growing,” the firm added in the statement.
“Juan’s appointment reflects Vanguard’s commitment to developing internal leaders. His promotion not only acknowledges his past performance, but also represents a strategic investment in our future growth and in serving global clients,” the firm also stated.
Vanguard noted that since joining the company in 2017, Juan Hernández has demonstrated exceptional leadership. The launch of Vanguard’s business in Mexico, its expansion across Latin America and U.S. Offshore, and his involvement in various regional investment committees are clear evidence of his experience, leadership, and results, qualities that earned him this promotion.
According to the firm, his extensive experience in institutional markets, ETFs, and entering new markets makes him well equipped to drive the company’s UCITS strategy with a forward-looking perspective.
“Juan’s dual experience in the Americas and now with UCITS positions us to respond more quickly to client needs and capture opportunities in high-potential regions. UCITS funds and ETFs are a vital part of our international offering and are increasingly becoming the investment vehicle of choice in many jurisdictions around the world. With Juan leading distribution outside Europe, we are ensuring this key range of funds continues to meet the needs of clients globally,” Vanguard concluded.
Photo courtesyFrom left to right: Michael Averett, Chief Revenue Officer for Insigneo; Mariano Huidobro, SVP Financial Advisor at Insigneo; Edward Varona, Insigneo advisor; Juan Carlos Amado, Financial Advisor at Insigneo; and Andres Brik, Senior Vice President at Insigneo.
During Insigneo’s triennial event held in Seville in November 2025, several of the firm’s financial advisors shared their vision on how they are guiding their clients through the transition toward advisory services, moving away from the more traditional transactional model common among broker-dealers in the region. Far from framing it as a simple “account change,” the panelists agreed that the shift to the advisory model is driven by a combination of good timing, financial education, transparency, and client connection. Above all, they recognize that this change stems from the advisor’s ability to deliver excellence to their clients.
“For me, in a broad sense, excellence is about giving more of yourself—something similar to what happens in sports. For example, Kobe Bryant used to do something different; he didn’t have extraordinary talent. His team was willing to give more, just like we want to give more to our clients every day, and that’s why I believe excellence is built when no one is watching. Working late nights, training hard, improving 1% in every small thing 1,000 times, it’s a process of hard work, not a single performance. We aspire to excellence as a team, and I believe we have the best team,” said Juan Carlos Amado, Financial Advisor at Insigneo.
In the view of Edward Varona, Insigneo advisor, excellence is achieved by adopting a different mindset. “If we analyze a problem, for example, how to manage volatility, we need to step back and figure out where we might fail so we can avoid it. The key is, if we can prevent volatility by explaining to clients that it’s not about constantly watching the screen, then that kind of proposal and way of thinking will add value,” Varona explained during the panel discussion.
A Transition Built on Experience
Advisors are confident in their ability to provide excellence and added value to clients; now comes the more complex part: transitioning to a model of explicitly paid advisory services. Along this path, one of the concepts most often mentioned by advisors was the use of so-called “natural transition moments.” Situations such as a platform shutting down or structural changes in a firm, for example, the closure of Wells Fargo Advisors, force clients to move their assets. Rather than replicating the old setup, advisors use this moment to reframe the relationship and focus on becoming more efficient and improving client service.
That was the case in the experience shared by Varona, a former Wells Fargo advisor, during the panel. “In my case, I was quite lucky, it was like being in the right place at the right time. We built our business from our branch with a synergy-focused approach and a solid team. So, when the shutdown happened, I almost saw it as my own ‘Liberation Day,’ because I was able to continue working within a model where advisory is a key and integral part of the business and your frontline operations,” Varona recalled.
For Andres Brik, Senior Vice President at Insigneo, the journey was a mix of conviction and passion, culminating in a single proposition: the advisory model. “We like to take the reins of investment, even in more complex assets like alternatives and private markets. I do believe that, as markets evolve, clients need to understand that financial education is extremely important, especially for private assets. This is work we do by combining education, the technology from various providers, and quarterly reviews. The result is that when something happens in the market, like last year’s ‘Liberation Day’, we don’t get calls from clients asking what’s going on, because they know exactly what they have in their portfolios and how those assets behave. They’re fully aware of what they hold,” he explained.
Making the Case to Clients and the Next Generation
When it comes to knowledge, advisors aren’t just referring to how assets or portfolios work, but also to the cost of investment, of advisory services, and the margins involved. As Varona acknowledged, that was one of his strongest arguments when guiding clients through this transition. “I showed clients, openly and transparently, the fees—so they could decide for themselves. We were also lucky because, right in the middle of the transition, we saw that Insigneo’s IMAPS program was available. The other thing we did was, for every new client opening an account, I’d set up a dual scheme: a transactional account and an advisory account. And I’d explain: ‘Look, we have these mutual funds. And math doesn’t lie; it comes down to that, math doesn’t lie. There’s an internal expense ratio. These firms need to keep the lights on, you know. So, if we move from here to here, from this share class to that one, you’re going to save money.’ That’s basically it,” Varona recalled during the event.
Beyond transparency with the client, advisors emphasized that the advisory model is better aligned with today’s expectations, and especially with those of the next generation. “One of the common and key factors is listening to what your client has to say. We have two ears, two eyes, and only one mouth, there’s a reason for that. To connect with the client and understand their needs, you have to listen: what is their body language telling you, what is their attitude saying? It’s essential to earning their trust. And having younger professionals on the team also helps improve that empathy, especially with younger generations,” noted Mariano Huidobro, SVP Financial Advisor at Insigneo, who shared his experience on the panel.
Among other conclusions presented by the advisors regarding the advisory model were the importance of professional and ongoing management, consistency with goals and risk profile, long-term planning, and a clear fee structure, all of which are increasingly valued by heirs and younger clients. These elements become especially relevant when navigating uncertain cycles and environments, as in 2025. In this regard, Amado emphasized that advisors must prepare clients for volatility. “Volatility is the price you pay to stay in the game. But then comes the question of how you can reduce volatility with the range of products we have. And I firmly believe that Insigneo has a platform that gives clients access to an unmatched range of products. For me, private infrastructure plays a very important role in reducing volatility without sacrificing returns, taking fees into account. When you go through those storms with the client, explaining why something is happening now and how their portfolio is positioned for it, and show them that every time we’ve been through this before, the market recovered and so did the portfolio, then the transition becomes much more manageable,” he pointed out.
The Value of Advisory
Up to this point, Insigneo’s advisors are clear on the value they deliver, but as they themselves admit, it’s difficult to price their service. “The transactional part of the business is like a commodity: it’s very hard to prove your value if you’re not adding any. That’s why, among brokers, we do a lot of non-discretionary advisory. But I also think it’s important to move forward and start developing the advisory business. IMAPS is a very good solution because you have the entire senior team, strong performance, and it’s a way to start building an advisory business. Another path is through the technology we have, Orion, which integrates accounts and lets you access other parts of the client’s wealth held on other platforms. That way, you can provide real advisory on their true asset allocation,” concluded Huidobro.
