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How to Capitalize on the Rare Earth Boom Through ETFs

Rare earths have become essential to the evolution of the global economy. They are key to a wide range of applications, from electric vehicles, wind turbines, and robotics to drones and fighter jets. It is no exaggeration to say that they are at the core of economic and military competition between nations.

The world’s major economies are well aware of this. The United States, for example, is introducing increasingly aggressive measures to kick-start rare earth production outside of China, which has led to a surge in the stocks of mining companies that produce these metals.

What are rare earths?

The term “rare earths” is not entirely accurate, as these shiny silver-white, soft heavy metals are relatively abundant. However, scandium, yttrium, and the 15 lanthanides do not occur as pure metals, but only in compounds that are difficult to isolate and purify. Refining them is a complex process with a high environmental impact.

VanEck explains that while the United States and Europe disregarded these metals for many years, China’s low-cost processing industry took over the market. “In recent years, this has increasingly become a problem for other countries, as rare earths are essential to the growing electrification of the global economy associated with artificial intelligence and the energy transition,” the firm states.

The investment case

Global appetite for investing in rare earths has grown because these metals are now crucial for national security, clean energy, and industrial policy. The United States, Europe, Japan, and Australia are taking action to secure supply chains through direct funding, tax incentives, and procurement guarantees. VanEck cites as an example the U.S. Department of Defense’s July acquisition of a 15% stake in MP Materials, the largest U.S. producer of rare earths.

“Investors are seeing rising demand for rare earths backed by public policies. They are an essential component of AI hardware and clean energy technologies, such as grid storage, wind energy, and electric vehicles, as well as advanced defense systems, including the F-35 fighter jet,” they assert.

Diversification

Despite this favorable tailwind for investment in these metals, the firm notes that “investing in rare earth mining and other companies in the supply chain remains risky due to geopolitical factors, trade disruptions, new export restrictions, or political instability in major producing countries.” Additionally, the firm points out that project execution also carries risk, “as some companies in the sector rely on unproven technologies, complex authorization processes, and continued public support.” For this reason, “diversification across companies is key.”

To gain exposure in this sector, there are ETFs offering high diversification in their holdings, while also providing additional returns to investor portfolios.

The VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals UCITS ETF holds more than 20 positions spread across nine countries. Its benchmark is the MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index, which tracks the global rare earth and strategic metals segment and includes companies that derive at least 50% of their revenue from rare earths/strategic metals.

WisdomTree, on the other hand, offers the WisdomTree Strategic Metals and Rare Earths Miners UCITS ETF, whose underlying index is the WisdomTree Strategic Metals and Rare Earths Miners Index. The fund’s exposure is focused on companies that capitalize on the growing use of metals for the energy transition and that meet WisdomTree’s ESG (environmental, social, and governance) criteria. Company selection for the strategy is carried out by experts in the energy transition metals value chain.

That said, the firm acknowledges that, since these are companies with greater growth potential—such as those involved in megatrends—they tend to trade at higher valuations. Therefore, “investors must consider the risk inherent in these higher valuations as part of any investment decision.”

Nomura Completes Acquisition of Macquarie’s Exchange-Traded Asset Management Business in the U.S. and Europe

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Nomura Has Successfully Completed the Acquisition of Macquarie’s Exchange-Traded Asset Management Business in the U.S. and Europe. According to the company, the purchase price was 1.8 billion U.S. dollars, and the closing of the transaction incorporates approximately 166 billion U.S. dollars (as of October 31, 2025) in assets from retail and institutional clients across equity, fixed income, and multi-asset strategies, under Nomura’s global brand, Nomura Asset Management.

As announced in April 2025, Nomura will integrate its private markets business, Nomura Capital Management (NCM), and its high-yield business, Nomura Corporate Research and Asset Management (NCRAM), together with the acquired assets to form Nomura Asset Management International, which will be part of Nomura Asset Management.

“The successful closing of this transaction marks an important step toward our 2030 Management Vision by boosting our assets under management and diversifying and strengthening our platform,” said Kentaro Okuda, President and CEO of Nomura Group.

New CEO and Strategic Alliance

Headquartered in New York and Philadelphia, Shawn Lytle will be CEO of Nomura Asset Management International, and Robert Stark, President and Deputy CEO of Nomura Asset Management International. Lytle was formerly Head of the Americas for Macquarie Group, while Mr. Stark will continue in his current role as CEO of Nomura Capital Management and will report functionally to Yoshihiro Namura, Head of Nomura’s Investment Management Division, and Satoshi Kawamura, CEO and President of Nomura Holding America Inc., from a corporate perspective.

“The new combined business has a strong foundation, with a well-diversified platform across all major asset classes and client segments. We now have an exciting opportunity to strengthen the combined capabilities of the new business and grow the franchise globally,” said Shawn Lytle, CEO of Nomura Asset Management International.

In addition to completing the transaction, Macquarie and Nomura have formalized a strategic alliance for product distribution and joint development of investment strategies, as initially announced in April 2025. Under the agreement, Nomura will distribute certain private funds from Macquarie to high-net-worth clients and family offices in the U.S.

The alliance also establishes collaboration in developing innovative investment solutions for clients in the U.S. and Japan. “We have created a joint task force between Nomura and Macquarie, as part of this alliance, to explore additional opportunities aimed at generating value for clients through increased collaboration between the two organizations,” the company stated.

Key Statements

Following the announcement, Chris Willcox, Head of Nomura’s Investment Management Division and Head of Wholesale, stated: “We are delighted to have completed this acquisition ahead of schedule and to welcome our new colleagues from Macquarie Asset Management.”

Meanwhile, Yoshihiro Namura, Head of the Investment Management Division, added: “Our goal with this transaction is simple: to build a global platform with excellent capabilities and investment outcomes that help clients achieve what matters most to them. I believe the new leadership team, led by Shawn and Robert, is in an ideal position to realize our ambitions.”

XP Doubles Down on Miami and Plans to Expand Offshore Investments

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Photo courtesyFabiano Cintra, Head of Fund Selection at XP: “Ten Years Ago, Those Who Invested Abroad Were the Outliers. Today, Those Who Don’t Invest Abroad Are the Ones Who Stand Out”

With an offshore operation that currently offers a global account for clients ranging from the retail segment to private banking, XP is committed to expanding its international presence, continuing to educate advisors on offshore investments, and broadening the reach of available strategies and assets.

Challenging the well-known home bias of Brazilian investors, the firm founded by Guilherme Benchimol and Marcelo Maisonnave counts the growth of the global account among its top priorities, according to Fabiano Cintra, Head of Fund Selection.

The first edition of the Global Conference—an event aimed at invited guests and advisors within the XP network—held in the auditorium of the company’s headquarters, marked this movement. XP is already preparing to bring the same event to Miami in March of next year, alongside its partner asset managers.

Today, the international platform includes 12 global asset managers and hundreds of feeders, a direct reflection of the more than 500,000 enabled global accounts, as revealed by Diego Corrêa, Head of XP International.

The executive emphasizes that, across all international fronts, the total assets under custody exceed 15 billion dollars. “Growth has been over 100% year over year,” he states. Internal data show that clients who start an offshore position increase, on average, 50% of their international wealth within just six months, while the customer churn rate consistently declines.

According to Corrêa, this behavior confirms the company’s thesis: education + advisory + seamless experience form the equation that has changed the way Brazilians invest abroad. “When we show the value of structural allocation, the client understands it — and stays,” he says. Today, XP recommends that investors have at least 15% of their portfolios allocated abroad.

Speaking about the future, Corrêa sums up XP International in 2026 with one word: “multi.”

It will be multi-currency, with full integration into the Wise ecosystem and operations also in euros; multi-account, with different structures for different profiles; and multi-model, including new formats of global advisory.

The company also plans to launch new alternative products and expand access to international funds through Allfunds.

How Asset Managers Will Turn the Global Wealth Boom Into Business

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Although the asset management industry is undergoing a clear process of transformation and consolidation—leading to fewer players in the market—the reality is that business opportunities remain strong. According to estimates from the latest report by Morgan Stanley and Oliver Wyman, global household financial wealth is on track to reach 393 trillion U.S. dollars by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.5%. In other words, individuals will continue to need investment products.

In fact, global household financial wealth reached 301 trillion U.S. dollars in 2024, marking a 7% increase in 2023 and an 8% rise in 2024. Its growth was resilient across all regions, with the Americas and the Middle East & Africa showing the largest gains, excluding currency effects. However, when adjusted for currency, real growth in U.S. dollars was moderate across all regions, with negative growth in Latin America and Japan.

Looking ahead, the report projects that global financial wealth will grow at an annual rate of 5.5% through 2029, returning to a level closer to the 6% annual rate observed between 2019 and 2023. In absolute terms, wealth growth remains heavily concentrated in North America and APAC. Europe’s wealth could benefit from supportive policies and increased household investment allocation in the future. The Middle East and Africa, as well as Latin America, show steady growth. Overall, growth rates are lower than in previous reports due to the inclusion of life insurance, pensions, and the wealth bracket below 0.3 million dollars.

The analysis also shows that, in terms of onshore investable financial wealth—defined as financial wealth held onshore excluding assets in insurance policies and pensions—ultra-high-net-worth individuals (UHNWIs) and high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) will continue to drive wealth creation with annual growth rates of 8.0% and 6.6%, respectively, over the next five years. However, the upper end of the Affluent/Lower-HNWI group remains a significant opportunity for asset managers globally: a segment that is “wealthy but underserved” and offers significantly higher revenue potential than the UHNWI and HNWI space. Asset managers that can tailor their offerings and manage costs can unlock growth in this segment.

Offshore financial wealth totaled 14 trillion U.S. dollars in 2024, with cross-border wealth flows growing at nearly 10% annually, outpacing global growth. Geopolitical uncertainty and diversification needs among UHNWI clients are sustaining demand for booking centers in safe havens. The three largest cross-border wealth hubs—Switzerland, Hong Kong, and Singapore—are expected to capture nearly two-thirds of new inflows through 2029. Outside these top centers, the United States and the United Arab Emirates are projected to see the fastest growth, with the U.S. benefiting from Latin American flows and the UAE expanding its appeal beyond the Middle East.

In terms of converting clients into profit, the challenge for asset managers will be to tap into this expanding pool while managing costs effectively. The report highlights that revenue margins in the sector dropped by 6 basis points in 2024 and another 3 basis points in the first half of 2025. Three out of four leading firms recorded declines, and only half offset them through cost reductions—further highlighting pressure on margins.

Clients with a net worth between 1 and 10 million U.S. dollars are identified as a key segment. This group is the largest by volume, offers higher basis-point returns than UHNWIs, and is seeing the entry of many new participants who are unadvised and holding substantial cash reserves. To win in this segment, leading asset managers are mobilizing five strategic catalysts:

Modular investment solutions with varying levels of performance protection.
Portfolio anchoring with tax-efficient equities, fixed income, and structured solutions for growth, income, and protection.
Transparent packaging and value-based pricing.
A hybrid human-digital model supported by robust digital and AI layers.
Enhanced client acquisition channels.

At the same time, asset managers are being warned against over-reliance on market beta. Between 2015 and 2024, only about one-third of asset manager growth came from net new money, prompting firms to focus more on relationship manager productivity, pricing discipline, and increasing wallet share from existing clients.

Morgan Stanley and Oliver Wyman emphasize that asset managers must urgently readjust their costs: “Many cost-to-income ratios (CIRs) hover around 75%, with personnel accounting for around two-thirds of operating expenses. Operating model programs can unlock between 10% and 25% in gross savings before reinvestment.”

Argentina Prepares for Return to the International Debt Market After Eight Years

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Following the victory of President Javier Milei’s party in the October midterm elections and after the financial backing provided by Donald Trump and Scott Bessent to the South American country, Argentina’s country risk (JP Morgan’s EMBI+ Argentina) plummeted, while financial assets surged. In this context, discussions have begun around the possibility of a sovereign debt issuance in the international market. However, market expectations suggest it won’t happen immediately.

Sources consulted by Funds Society agreed that the country has several issues to resolve before attempting a return to international markets. Attention has turned once again to the foreign currency reserves of the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA), while the market awaits concrete progress on the structural reforms promised by the government and seeks clarity on the strategy to address January’s upcoming maturities.

Regarding international investor appetite for a potential new Argentine issuance, one expert noted that caution prevails, as the political landscape in Argentina remains binary. Another added that if the market perceives continuity, and once there is more visibility on pending matters, interest should deepen.

Between Issuances and Defaults

During Mauricio Macri’s administration (2015–2019), Argentina returned to capital markets and issued debt abroad multiple times. A landmark during that period was the issuance of a 100-year dollar-denominated bond in June 2017.

But that was the last major “traditional” international issuance by the South American country. In 2018, a new currency crisis led to an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and Argentina lost sustained access to voluntary external markets. In 2020, with the debt restructuring (selective default) and swap led by Alberto Fernández’s administration, the international window for new issuances remained closed.

On May 28 of this year, the government tested a return with an issuance aimed at international investors through the BONTE 2030 instrument (a peso-denominated bond subscribed in U.S. dollars).

Following the latest electoral result, market sentiment shifted. The City of Buenos Aires Government and eight energy companies (Tecpetrol, YPF, Pampa Energía, TGS, Pluspetrol, CGC, Genneia, and Edenor) seized the momentum and launched a wave of international bond issuances totaling 4.201 billion U.S. dollars. The average yield on these issuances was around 8%.

However, when The Wall Street Journal reported that the assistance package of another 20 billion dollars with international banks had been suspended, the market began demanding clarity on how external maturities would be covered and how the reserve accumulation program would continue.

Foreign-currency bond maturities amount to more than 8.4 billion U.S. dollars in 2026. Meanwhile, the Central Bank’s net reserves are only slightly positive. Noise returned—something common in Argentina—and the country risk began to rise once again.

According to the press, Economy Minister Luis “Toto” Caputo is currently negotiating a loan of approximately 5 billion U.S. dollars under a repo scheme. Under this structure, Argentina would provide a portfolio of assets as collateral in exchange for fresh dollars. The primary objective is for the government to meet a debt payment of nearly 4 billion dollars due next January.

Experts’ Perspectives

Following the victory in October’s legislative elections, “long-term investment expectations in international financial markets improved, reducing JP Morgan’s country risk indicator from 1,080 basis points to the current 630–650,” said Rodolfo Sosa-García, PhD in Economics and Finance from The City University of New York and CEO of GALILEI Consulting, speaking to Funds Society from New York.

In his view, Milei’s government could return to international debt markets “optimally” once the country risk reaches the 450–550 range. All consulted experts shared this view. Sosa-García believes the country is “not far” from regaining access to international debt markets. However, he stressed that the current administration “must continue with long-term public policies: reduce inflation, increase the BCRA’s foreign reserves, liberalize the exchange rate, and control the fiscal deficit.”

A senior executive from a major international fund added that he sees “caution” among foreign investors regarding a potential new sovereign issuance. There is “expectation,” he told Funds Society, but international investors want “more evidence” because they still perceive “a binary political scenario.” In his opinion, demand would currently come mainly from local or Latin American investors.

“Today, there are no significant positions held by international investors in Argentina,” wrote Juan Ignacio Abuchdid, president of local financial holding Grupo IEB, in an opinion column in La Nación. “We have regained credibility, but we are still classified as a standalone market by MSCI, the global index that defines financial market categories,” he added.

“Argentina is getting closer and closer to regaining market access, although tasks remain,” assessed Alejo Rivas, strategist at Balanz. The country must “improve its external position and move forward on structural reforms; a swap or repo operation could also help. Once progress is made on these fronts, the yield curve could converge to levels seen in comparable countries like Nigeria, Egypt, Pakistan, or El Salvador, currently near 9% on the long end,” he noted.

Fiscal progress and the political backing earned by the government in the latest election are factors helping to sustain current rates, which are slightly above 10% on the long end of the curve. However, these rates are still not low enough to enable sustainable market access. “There is still ground to cover,” the professional summarized.

Eric Ritondale, Chief Economist at PUENTE, agreed with the assessment. “With short-term sovereign debt yielding in single digits, a return seems very close. However, we expect this to occur only by mid-2026, once yields compress further and several key milestones are achieved: legislative progress on the budget and reforms, definitions on how to address January maturities, the second IMF review scheduled for January/February 2026, an upgrade of the sovereign credit rating to B-, and a reserve buildup process by the Central Bank, potentially starting in March or April next year.”

In a webinar titled “Is Argentina Returning to the Markets?”, Martín Polo, Chief Strategist at Cohen, praised Milei’s government for its “strict fiscal discipline.” However, he noted that country risk still needs to fall, net reserves are far from the IMF-agreed target, and hinted that “the key lever for resolving these issues is the exchange rate.” With the real exchange rate at the same level as in June 2023 and commodity prices lower, “there’s plenty of ground to cover on the international market front,” he added.

Meanwhile, the Balanz strategist pointed out that “it’s most likely there will be some recalibration of the exchange rate scheme, expanding the floating band. Granting more freedom to the exchange rate—which is currently very close to the upper limit—and acknowledging that the Central Bank, in addition to the Treasury, should be buying reserves are logical steps, largely already priced in by the market.”

Regarding the bond buyback operation, Rivas noted that it could help partially ease maturities and provide the final boost. “Although the amortizing structure of the bonds makes it difficult to fully clear upcoming payments through such operations, they could still be useful. It will be key to assess the rate and term of any new debt issued to determine whether the operation effectively helps restore market access,” he concluded.

Juan José Vázquez, Head of Research at Cohen, took a more constructive stance. As he explained during the online seminar, with the buyback of short-term bonds, the government could go to international markets in January to raise funds and rebuild reserves. Most likely, he indicated, this first placement would close at a yield of around 9%.

“There Is a New Franklin Templeton That Offers More Alternatives, More ETFs, and Focuses on Digital Innovation”

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Three decades after the opening of its first office in the region, Franklin Templeton commemorates its 30th anniversary in South America, emphasizing that this milestone represents, more than a goal achieved, a solid foundation to accelerate its next stage of growth. This is how Sergio Guerrien, Director & Country Manager South America of the asset manager, described it when he sat down with Funds Society in Buenos Aires to discuss the evolution of the business and, above all, the new map of opportunities the company offers to investors in the region.

“It’s been 30 truly interesting years with many challenges,” summarized Guerrien, an Argentine national, who is also celebrating three decades at the company, where he began years ago in a junior position. The executive expressed being “more excited than ever” about what lies ahead for Franklin in the region.

“In the last century, the mutual fund vehicle was neither well known nor widely recognized. Today, 30 years later, it’s part of any client’s investment portfolio. That discussion is no longer relevant,” he explained. “Moreover, in these past decades,” he added, “new, more sophisticated investment vehicles have been introduced, and today the industry in South America has expanded significantly across all countries in the region. These are all new markets that have become part of the international investment landscape.”

From Nascent Market to Diversified Regional Industry

Franklin Templeton landed in South America in 1995 with the opening of its office in Buenos Aires, at a time when the local market was booming and distribution structures were still in their early stages. Over time, its expansion accompanied the development of other key hubs, particularly in the Andean region.

“Later, with the development of markets such as Chile, Peru, and Colombia, we decided to open offices in those countries and in Montevideo,” Guerrien detailed. The strategy responded to a reality that now defines South America: markets with distinctly different DNA, requiring tailored value propositions.

“The Andean region has a strong institutional and pension presence, whereas the Río de la Plata area is more focused on the wealth segment. That led us to create segmented offerings depending on the market,” noted the executive, while highlighting one cross-cutting capability: the ability to serve both retail and institutional clients across the region. “I believe that’s unique in South America,” he stated, “being able to effectively serve both markets with a globally recognized brand.”

A “New Franklin Templeton” With Global Scale

The regional transformation is inseparable from the group’s global evolution. Guerrien emphasized that since 2020, Franklin Templeton has entered a phase of accelerated growth through acquisitions that expanded its global investment platform.

The acquisition of Legg Mason was one of the most relevant and transformative moves, integrating multiple teams and strategies into the parent company. Since then, the asset manager has strengthened its positioning in private markets through acquisitions of specialists in various asset classes, including private credit (Benefit Street Partners), real estate (Clarion Partners), and private equity, particularly in the secondary segment (Lexington Partners).

“Today, we are managing around 270 billion dollars in private markets,” Guerrien highlighted, noting that this scale places Franklin Templeton among the largest global players in the alternative universe. The thesis behind this growth is clear: there are opportunities not represented in public indices that require a more sophisticated approach.

“Democratized” Private Markets and New Doors for Retail

One of the most disruptive changes, according to Guerrien, is the opening of the private world to a broader public. Historically reserved for high-net-worth investors, the alternative universe is moving toward greater accessibility through structures designed for the wealth segment.

“With the democratization of private markets, evergreen funds with quarterly liquidity began to emerge,” he explained. In practice, this allows retail investors to access private credit, real estate, or private equity with lower minimums and a more flexible dynamic.

Adoption of these solutions is not uniform. “Andean markets, such as Peru and Colombia, are adopting them more quickly due to their institutional history; in Argentina and Uruguay, the process is progressing more slowly,” he described.

Regarding the debate over bubble risk or liquidity in alternatives, Guerrien distinguished between subsegments. He acknowledged that private credit appears more “crowded” with tighter spreads, but sees opportunities in other niches. “We’re seeing the opportunity more in asset-backed lending, a large and less crowded market,” he affirmed. The executive also highlighted the current potential of secondary private equity, where attractive valuations are observed.

Guerrien anticipated that Franklin will soon offer investment opportunities in the fourth pillar of private markets: infrastructure, following a recently signed agreement with Actis (Sustainable Infrastructure business of General Atlantic), Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (CIP), and DigitalBridge, to offer private infrastructure solutions to individual investors.

ETFs: A Second Wave Coexisting With Traditional Funds

Although Guerrien acknowledges the growth of the ETF industry in developed markets, he argued that this is not direct competition with mutual funds but rather a coexistence of tools with different functions. In this regard, Franklin Templeton has built a proprietary ETF platform that has already achieved global scale.

“We have an ETF platform that currently manages around 50 billion dollars,” he stated. Guerrien presented this platform as a strategic step in the group’s modernization and diversification process.

Digital Innovation, Tokenization, and Bitcoin Under Regulation

Another important strategic area is innovation related to digital assets and blockchain. Guerrien highlighted that the group has been a digital innovation leader since the 1960s, launching pioneering products, and that this same culture now manifests in tokenization and the development of vehicles tied to cryptoassets.

One concrete example is the launch of a tokenized money market fund under regulation, an initiative that opened the door for the asset manager in the world of digital investing. “What’s important is that we always do it within a strict regulatory framework. That gives investors peace of mind,” he emphasized.

A Global Trend: Fewer Providers, More Partnerships

Looking ahead, Guerrien identified a trend that is reshaping the industry: global distribution platforms are reducing the number of asset managers they work with. The reasons are operational, regulatory, and cost-related.

“There are so many funds and managers that for large distributors it’s extremely expensive to handle compliance and monitoring for all of them. So they’re narrowing their list and prioritizing firms that offer all capabilities on a single platform,” he explained. In that scenario, Franklin Templeton believes it has a distinctive advantage: a comprehensive investment and service platform that spans public and private markets, ETFs, and digital innovation, all supported by unified global infrastructure.

Financial Education as the Fourth Pillar

The fourth pillar the firm aims to strengthen is education. Guerrien described a training ecosystem that includes programs for financial advisors, macro and geopolitical analysis publications, and academic partnerships with international universities.

“We believe that to achieve the best results, our partners and investors must have strong financial education,” he maintained. The asset manager offers training modules, periodic research, and programs in collaboration with academic institutions such as Singularity University, Oxford, and IE University.

Looking Ahead: The Anniversary as a Springboard

After three decades of trajectory, Guerrien set aside nostalgia and focused on the future. He emphasized that Franklin Templeton is evolving toward a higher phase, with more available resources to meet the growing demands of an increasingly competitive and concentrated industry.

“Today I find myself with a new, renewed Franklin Templeton. I’ve never been as excited as I am now about what we can offer investors,” he expressed. “We are very well positioned to offer unique investment solutions,” he concluded. Indeed, this 30th anniversary, far from marking the end of a cycle, signals the beginning of a new chapter.

“The Dollar Is Being Questioned, But Not Replaced”

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Photo courtesyPhilippe Dauba-Pantanacce, Global Head of Geopolitics & Senior Economist at Standard Chartered.

Although “de-dollarization” is advancing in some emerging markets and several countries are seeking to reduce their dependence on the dollar, it remains the main currency for international trade, as well as for global reserves and financial markets. “The dollar is not dead, but it is taking on new forms,” says Philippe Dauba-Pantanacce, Global Head of Geopolitics & Senior Economist at Standard Chartered, who believes that the future of the U.S. currency faces a global context shaped by political tensions, changes in supply chains, and a globalization that is also not dead—but is likewise taking on new forms.

According to the economist, the dollar faces growing challenges: “More and more countries are seeking to reduce their dependence on the dollar, partly because the United States has used the dollar as a weapon for political purposes.” For Dauba-Pantanacce, one example is the exclusion of Russian banks from SWIFT or the prolonged sanctions on Iran, which “has led many emerging markets to question the neutrality of a currency they view as too closely tied to decisions made in Washington,” he explains.

Even so, the Standard Chartered expert stresses that this trend does not imply a collapse of the dollar. According to his analysis, “de-dollarization is real, but progressing slowly and does not change the fact that the dollar remains the dominant currency in international trade, global reserves, and financial markets.” He also notes that, even in recent episodes of volatility, the dollar has regained its role as a safe-haven asset, demonstrating that its leadership remains intact.

When discussing possible alternatives, Dauba-Pantanacce emphasizes that none are in a position to replace it. In the case of the renminbi, he explained that China’s ambition clashes with its own capital controls. As for the euro, he acknowledges it has potential, but notes that “to elevate a currency, you need a liquid capital market,” and today Europe still lacks the financial depth that would allow the euro to compete with the dollar on equal footing. Regarding the BRICS, he adds that the idea of a common currency is unrealistic and lacks both the political will and integrated financial structures.

In conclusion, Dauba-Pantanacce believes the world is moving toward a more multipolar structure, with several currencies gaining some ground as globalization evolves. But he stresses that this process does not signal the end of the dollar’s leadership: “Its enormous liquidity, the size of the Treasuries market, and its status as a global safe haven remain unmatched. The dollar is being questioned, but it is not being replaced.”

Deutsche Börse Confirms Exclusive Talks to Acquire Allfunds

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Following recent rumors reported in the financial press, Allfunds and Deutsche Börse have each issued statements confirming that they are in “exclusive negotiations” regarding a potential acquisition by Deutsche Börse of all issued and outstanding share capital of Allfunds.

“Allfunds confirms that it has been approached by Deutsche Börse AG (Deutsche Börse) and is in exclusive negotiations with it regarding a possible acquisition of Allfunds by Deutsche Börse. The Board of Directors of Allfunds has unanimously agreed to enter a period of exclusivity based on the proposal submitted by Deutsche Börse,” Allfunds explained in its statement.

For its part, Deutsche Börse expressed caution and noted that “the announcement of any binding offer regarding a potential acquisition is subject to the satisfaction or, where applicable, waiver of a number of customary conditions precedent, including, among others, the successful completion of customary due diligence on Allfunds, the finalization of definitive transaction documentation, and final approval by the Boards of Directors of both Deutsche Börse and Allfunds.”

The proposal entails a total consideration of €8.80 per Allfunds share, valuing the company at €5.29 billion. The proposed payment would be structured as follows:

€4.30 per Allfunds share in cash;
€4.30 in new Deutsche Börse shares for each Allfunds share—calculated based on the 10-day volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of Deutsche Börse shares prior to the announcement, unaffected by the deal;
€0.20 per Allfunds share for fiscal year 2025, as a permitted cash dividend to be paid by Allfunds in 2026.

Deutsche Börse’s Rationale

Deutsche Börse Group stated it strongly believes in the “solid strategic, commercial, and financial rationale” of combining Allfunds with its own fund services business segment. “This potential business combination would represent a successful new consolidation, creating a true pan-European ecosystem. It would reduce fragmentation in the European investment fund industry and result in a harmonized, globally scaled business that would play a key role in further facilitating the channeling of retail savings into productive capital allocations, such as investment funds. The combination is expected to generate significant operational efficiencies and cost synergies across platforms and services, enable a streamlining of investment capacity, and foster greater innovation for clients, with even faster market access. Overall, both clients and EU equity markets are expected to benefit significantly from the strengthened structure of such a combined platform,” Deutsche Börse noted in its statement.

It added: “Deutsche Börse Group is a firm advocate that a thriving fund sector is essential to the EU’s status as a globally relevant financial hub. The proposed transaction would align with Deutsche Börse’s strategy and further underscore its continued commitment and efforts to strengthen European capital markets and their global competitiveness, as envisioned in the Savings and Investments Union (SIU).”

Next Steps

Both companies reiterated that the announcement of any binding offer related to the proposal is subject to the fulfillment—or waiver—of a number of customary conditions, including a satisfactory due diligence review of Allfunds, the finalization of definitive transaction documents, and approval from the boards of Deutsche Börse and Allfunds.

“There can be no certainty regarding the conclusion of any future agreement with Deutsche Börse or any other party in relation to a potential transaction, nor regarding the terms of any possible transaction (if agreed),” Allfunds stated.

Allfunds began trading on Euronext Amsterdam in April 2021, after placing nearly 30% of its capital at a price of €11.50 per share. On its first trading day, the stock rose by 20%.

The Fed in the Spotlight: Will There Be an Imminent Cut?

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

After weeks of fragmentation within the FOMC, the market now assigns an 80% probability to a 25-basis-point cut at the December 10 meeting. The shift in expectations accelerated after rumors emerged positioning Kevin Hassett—current Director of the NEC—as the leading candidate to chair the Federal Reserve.

Powell appears to have gained internal leeway to move forward with a “risk management” decision given the slowdown in consumption, the risk posed by the “K-shaped” economy, weakness in some manufacturing indicators, and the absence of significant inflationary pressures.

Mixed Macro, but With a Dovish Tone

Although the industrial recovery has yet to take hold, the set of data released this week supports an accommodative decision:

Regional Surveys:

Philadelphia: Overall index improves (from -12.8 to -1.7) despite a decline in new orders.
Dallas: Improvement in orders, but overall index deteriorates (from -5 to -10.4).
Richmond: Sharp decline (from -4 to -15).

Flash PMI:

United States: Rebound to 54.8, driven by services.
Eurozone/Germany: Manufacturing remains weak and the Ifo index declines (from 91.6 to 90.6), confirming stagnation.

Retail Sales: +0.2% (vs. +0.4% expected).
Core PPI: Below consensus.
Conference Board: Confidence stabilizes but remains on a downward trend. The reading for the labor market is still…

This environment reduces the immediate inflationary risk but increases that of a two-speed or “K-shaped” economy, in which the slowdown hits middle- and low-income consumption, while corporate investment—especially in AI—remains strong.

In Europe, the Ifo index (which falls from 91.6 to 90.6) also comes in below expectations and confirms the readings from the ZEW index a couple of weeks ago and the preliminary PMIs: growth will remain stagnant. The United States is performing better than Europe.

Employment: Risks Contained, but Not Null

The Beige Book reflects an economy with stable activity, but less momentum in sales and hiring. Labor demand is easing, but there are still no signs of pressure for mass layoffs.

This aligns with a view of a benign slowdown, sufficient to justify a cut, but without the panic associated with a severe short-term contraction.

Toward December: Mixed Signal Risks

Although the general expectation points to a cut in December, the tone of communication will be key to the market’s reaction. If Powell suggests that this is the last move of the cycle, or if the curve must adjust its expectations to a less accommodative monetary policy outlook for 2026, several side effects could arise:

High-multiple assets (tech, crypto, growth) could correct or move sideways if the market interprets the cut as the end of the road.
The dollar would be supported, hurting sensitive assets like gold, emerging markets, or bitcoin.
High-yield corporate credit, with spreads still tight, could suffer due to expectations of higher long-term rates.
The Taylor Rule indicates that fed funds are at reasonable levels; if a higher neutral rate is mentioned due to productivity or asset price bubbles, the market would interpret this as more hawkish than expected.

More Fuel for 2026?

The December cut and “pause” could be anticipated as a precaution in light of uncertainties in the labor market and a potential overheating in 2026, when the OBBA fiscal plan comes into full effect (contributing between 0.3% and 0.4% to GDP growth).

Added to this is the possibility of a targeted fiscal injection for low- and middle-income households, aimed at revitalizing consumption. While politically useful, this approach would further accentuate the divergence between consumption and savings across income groups, exacerbating the structure of the “K-shaped” economy.

AI, Investment, and Imbalances: The Boom That Divides

Corporate investment in AI continues to expand, supporting a narrative similar to that of 1995–1999. The process is evident, but still far from its peak.

However, the boom in productivity (and income) has not been distributed evenly. The top 10% of the population by income already accounts for more than 50% of total spending in the United States, which increases inequality in access to consumption and investment. This structural imbalance puts pressure on the Fed to continue cutting rates, even if inflation remains contained or surprises to the downside.

Valuations, Liquidity, and Volatility: Beware of Overheating

The combination of expansionary fiscal policy, tech-driven narrative, and expectations of rate cuts is pushing valuations to levels that warrant close monitoring. Despite comparisons to the dotcom bubble, the current environment includes:

Greater accounting transparency.
More profitable business models.
Lower operational and financial leverage.
High investment levels relative to cash flow generation, but still far from the excesses seen in the 1999–2000 TMT space.

Nonetheless, conditions can change rapidly. If the Fed is forced to reverse course in 2026, assets with more demanding multiples would be the most vulnerable.

The parallel with the 1995–1999 period remains valid: a structurally upward trend, but with greater volatility. In this context, taking strategic protection remains a reasonable decision, without giving up the underlying positive bias.

Conclusion

Everything points to a cut in December, driven more by a policy of prevention than reaction. But what matters most will not be the move itself, but how Powell communicates it.

Investors will need to balance three key axes:

AI narrative + expansionary fiscal policy = structural support.
Risks of uneven slowdown + reactive monetary policy.
Threat of overheating in 2026 = risk of reversal.

At this point in the cycle, the prudent course is to continue participating in the trend, but with discipline in risk exposure, close monitoring of consumption, and attention to signals of monetary reversal.

Private Markets: Key Meeting in Miami for SuperReturn North America 2026

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

private markets key meeting in Miami 2026 — Photo courtesy

Miami will once again host one of the most important gatherings in the private markets industry in North America. From March 16 to 18, 2026, the InterContinental Hotel will welcome a new edition of SuperReturn North America, a conference that brings together key players from the alternative investment ecosystem, including managers, institutional investors, and specialists from various regions around the world.

Considered the leading private markets forum in the region, the event is expected to draw over 800 decision-makers, including more than 250 limited partners (LPs) and 350 general partners (GPs) from over 30 countries. After returning to Miami in 2025, the conference will be held in the city for the second consecutive year, with the promise of a “bigger, bolder, and better” agenda.

A Broad Agenda With a Focus on Emerging Managers

Over the course of three days, attendees will have access to panels and sessions featuring more than 200 industry experts. The program includes specialized summits dedicated to private debt, venture capital, private wealth management, and hedge funds within the private markets universe.

According to the organizers, this year’s edition will also feature more content focused on emerging managers and new exclusive sessions for LPs, in line with the growing presence of these players in the market.

Networking and Pre-Scheduled Meetings

SuperReturn North America 2026 will also enhance its professional networking offering. Through SuperReturn Allocate, participants will be able to maximize their pre-scheduled meetings, while the event’s social format will include themed activities designed to expand networking opportunities: casino night, women-in-finance lunches, champagne roundtables, and other informal networking spaces.

Confirmed LPs

Among the institutional investors already confirmed are Aksia, American Student Assistance, Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan (HOOPP), LCG Associates, Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance Co, NEPC, Prime Healthcare, Public Investment Fund, Reinsurance Group of America, and Symetra Investment Management, among others.

Exclusive Discount From Funds Society

Funds Society is a media partner of SuperReturn North America 2026, which means our readers have access to an exclusive discount.

Simply visit this Discount URL: https://tinyurl.com/2ppcrthu
and enter the following Discount Code: FKR3585FS.

With growing international attendance and an agenda focused on the leading trends in private capital, SuperReturn North America 2026 aims to solidify its place as a strategic meeting point for the North American and global markets.