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AI Crowned Top Direct Investment Destination for Global Ultra-High-Net-Worth Individuals

Citi Wealth’s recent “2026 Global Family Office Report,” based on responses from 351 family office executives across 41 countries, reveals that leading organizations are constructing long-term strategies grounded in three pillars: capital, capability, and continuity. In an environment characterized by high interest rates, doubts regarding financial system stability, and geopolitical risks, family offices have operated in an agile and disciplined manner. Sector leaders have not allowed uncertainty to paralyze them; instead, they have adopted more deliberate and institutional approaches to investing, deploying technology, and preparing the next generation to preserve wealth.

Extraordinary Performance Amid Uncertainty

Capital management has proven to be exceptionally resilient. Nearly nine out of ten family offices (89%) reported positive portfolio returns so far in 2026. Nearly 60% of respondents reported gains of up to 10%, while 13% reported appreciation in their investments exceeding 15%. The Asia-Pacific region stood out, with 26% of family offices achieving gains above 15%.

Annual return targets reflect a focus on sustainable growth. First, 41% of family offices target returns of 7% to 10%. Another 20% aim for returns between 5% and 7%, while 18% seek margins of 10% to 13%. Finally, in Asia-Pacific, 22% of respondents target annual returns above 15%.

Inflation and Asset Restructuring

The hierarchy of macroeconomic risks shifted substantially in 2026. Inflation emerged as the dominant concern, cited by 63% of respondents (a significant jump from 37% in 2025). This was followed by interest rate trends (44%) and global financial system stability (38%). Notably, concern over trade disputes and tariffs dropped dramatically to 18%. In Latin America, inflation concerns reached their highest level at 76%.

To protect purchasing power, family offices have adjusted their strategic asset allocations. Publicly traded equities currently represent the largest average allocation at 30% of portfolios, followed by fixed income (16%) and cash (12%). Over the past 12 months, equities attracted the largest net capital increase, with 46% of respondents indicating they increased their exposure.

Private Markets and Direct Investment

Private markets remain a fundamental pillar. Looking at private equity, interest is heavily concentrated in growth equity strategies, where 30% plan to increase their allocation. This is followed by venture capital (21%) and secondary transactions (19%).

Direct investment is a widespread practice, with 75% of family offices participating. Growth stage (Series C or D) is the most frequent target area (57%), followed by pre-IPO opportunities in second place (40%), and secondary transactions capturing 40% of respondents.

At the sector level, artificial intelligence (AI) has established itself as the top destination for direct investments, selected by 51% of participants. Healthcare (32%) and real estate (31%) also maintain solid demand. The preferred deal size for these investments ranges between $1 million and $5 million for 44% of family offices, although 26% of the largest firms (with wealth exceeding $500 million) target check sizes between $5 million and $10 million.

Adoption of Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence has transitioned from an exploratory concept into an operational reality. Forty percent of respondents describe their adoption of AI as early-stage, while an additional 30% report moderate adoption. Only 10% report advanced usage. Just 19% indicate no adoption at all—a significant improvement compared to last year.

Primary applications focus on productivity: generating meeting notes and summaries (16% extensive use and 22% in implementation) is the leading use case. In terms of tangible benefits, 67% state that AI has dramatically improved the speed of information processing. Other positive impacts include reducing manual work or headcount (35%) and faster due diligence (35%). In investment management, market and macroeconomic analysis leads adoption, with 12% using it extensively.

Financing and Operating Companies

The link to operating businesses remains strong: 67% of respondents hold controlling stakes in one or more operating businesses. In terms of banking services for these businesses, 40% require capital or credit lines. As for the family offices themselves, 57% turn to securities-based lending or margin facilities as their primary form of leverage, favoring capital efficiency without disrupting their portfolios.

Continuity, Governance, and Succession

Leadership succession is emerging as one of the most pressing issues on the horizon. One-third of family offices expect a leadership transition within the next five years. However, readiness remains deficient: only 17% feel “well prepared,” while 34% consider themselves “somewhat prepared.”

Among the main challenges, the primary obstacle is the lack of a clear leadership succession plan (29%), followed by insufficient preparation of future leaders (24%), and a lack of a clear vision and goals for the future (22%).

When developing the next generation, 46% cite “lack of clarity regarding future roles” as their biggest hurdle, followed by an “insufficient sense of urgency” (42%) and “lack of engagement from the next generation” (39%). To address this situation, family offices are betting on participation in family meetings (56%), meetings with advisors (47%), and professional experience outside the family business (44%).

Cross-Border Complexity and Globalization

Family wealth is internationalizing rapidly. Thirty-eight percent of respondents expect family globalization (living abroad, acquiring new residences, or obtaining citizenships) to increase moderately or significantly over the next five years. This trend is especially pronounced in Latin America, where 58% expect a global impact.

Currently, 26% of family offices operate across multiple jurisdictions, and another 14% are considering doing so. The number one need for cross-border wealth management is tax coordination (59%), followed by asset structuring (43%) and residence/citizenship planning (35%).

Family Values and Purpose

Decisions are deeply rooted in principles. Fifty-five percent of respondents state that family mission and values strongly guide or fundamentally shape their investment strategy. This figure rises to nearly 80% among third-generation family offices and beyond. Nearly half of family offices maintain allocations to sustainable investments, with public equities (23%) and private equity (21%) being the preferred vehicles.

To enhance philanthropic impact, respondents prioritize access to networks and learning opportunities (25%) on par with intergenerational engagement and legacy building (25%), balancing external effectiveness with internal cohesion. In the realm of art, 17% would consider working with art advisors to gain intelligence on the global market.

Active ETFs, AI, and Tokenized Funds: Janus Henderson’s Present and Future Innovation Roadmap

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Ali Dibadj, CEO of Janus Henderson, used the opening of the Janus Henderson Investment Summit—the asset manager’s annual event for investors and clients, held in September this year for the first time in Rome, Italy—to highlight three fronts where he believes the firm is more innovative than many realize: active ETFs, tokenized funds, and artificial intelligence. During his presentation, he used the Italian capital as a metaphor for the company itself.

Dibadj asked attendees to explore the firm as they would the Italian city: “I would like you to think of Janus Henderson a bit like Rome, in the sense that we have a foundation that began 92 years ago, upon which we continue to build,” he maintained, adding: “You may know us for one thing, but consider getting to know us for something else as well.”

As he recounted, the firm was founded in 1934 with a single client in the United Kingdom, where it maintains its headquarters, and since then has invested “in things others were not investing in”: the first British railways, the electrification of London, and lightbulbs. Thirty-five years later, it began operating in the United States, where it bet on the first personal computers, the first fiber-optic cables, and later, the internet. “Different, new, and innovative things,” he summarized.

Among the Top Ten in Active ETFs

“We are very innovative in many ways,” Dibadj stated. In exchange-traded funds, he contended that Janus Henderson is one of the top ten active ETF providers in the world and ranks among the top three or four in active fixed-income ETFs.

The CEO framed this positioning within the weight of fixed income in their business, which already accounts for 30% of the total and, as he explained, continues to grow. Along with CLOs and securitized products, it is a area where the firm sees opportunities in an environment of persistent rates and yields. Dibadj also outlined an organic and inorganic growth strategy that includes ETFs, portfolio analysis for clients, private asset distribution, and asset-backed securities, with the goal of finding “differentiated areas” for clients and advisors.

At the same time, he highlighted the manager’s position in tokenized funds: “We are one of the top five providers of tokenized funds worldwide. I bet you didn’t know that about Janus Henderson.” He added: “We believe it is an area of the future where we can be leaders, and we would love for your clients to participate with us.”

Regarding artificial intelligence, Dibadj maintained that the firm relies heavily on it, but with a different approach from the one he believes dominates the sector: “Not just to cut costs, not just to gain productivity, not just what everyone else is saying.” It applies it, he explained, “to deliver for you,” focusing “on client service” and “on better investment performance. That is what matters to you, and that is what matters to us.”

He placed technology among the company’s “core beliefs”: “We believe technology will change absolutely everything and we have to be prepared for that, for you and for your clients.” He added that the attendees’ clients “are asking more of them” and want to work with their teams, and that the manager must support them in that task while its own costs—like those of the entire industry—continue to rise.

A Private Company, with More Room to Invest

To finance these initiatives, Dibadj explained, the firm decided that “as a public company it is harder to do so,” and this year it went private. “We feel a bit less quarterly pressure. We can invest and be creative again, investing with a return for you and for your clients,” he stated. His premise, he said, is simple: “If we deliver for our clients, everything will be fine.”

The CEO maintained that Janus Henderson was the fastest-growing asset manager over the last four years, “faster than many of the other major companies,” attributing this to the attendees and their clients. He added that the company was able to add new people to its teams and provide room to invest in existing staff.

The Context: Three Persistent Trends

According to Dibadj, these strategic bets are supported by trends the firm identified “before they were obvious” and that will remain relevant “for many years to come.”

The first is geopolitical realignments, which the firm began speaking about nearly five years ago: “Not a day goes by without us hearing about instability, deglobalization, broken supply chains.” The second is lifestyle changes, involving AI, aging populations, healthcare, and working arrangements: “How often are people on Zoom calls now, and how much were they ten years ago?”

The third is the return of the cost of capital, something that, he recalled, “four or five years ago people didn’t think would happen.” It implies higher yields and, therefore, more fixed income, but also selection: “When there is no cost of capital, there is no differentiation. That differentiation,” he assured, “will come and happen as rates and yields remain persistent,” creating a divide between the haves and the have-nots.

At the conclusion of his presentation, Dibadj placed the manager at $500 billion in assets under management, with 64 strategies exceeding $1 billion each, 2,000 employees, and 75 million clients worldwide. About 350 people are dedicated exclusively to researching investment strategies, and another 450 focus on client service.

In closing, he referred to the firm’s identity and the “&” symbol: “It is the ‘together’ part. The ‘together’ is you and us. That is how we operate, that is how we think.” Along those lines, he invited attendees to share how the company can improve, “because it is about the &. It is about you.”

Ricciardi: “If in Three Years People Think Fidelity Is the Ideal Retirement Company, I Would Be Very Happy”

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Photo courtesySamantha Ricciardi, Head of EMEA de Fidelity International.

Samantha Ricciardi, Head of EMEA at Fidelity International, outlined key trends and challenges facing both the industry in general and Fidelity International in particular at the firm’s European Media Summit recently held in London. The executive, who joined the firm just six months ago, cited the need for individuals to take greater responsibility for their financial future as the primary industry trend. “We are not going to have enough money to retire,” she asserted, emphasizing that “there is a push at the European level regarding how we ensure that people take ownership of their financial future and better plan for their retirement.”

Second, she pointed to advice as a growing trend. “We have noticed a significant increase in people’s interest in knowing not just what to invest in, but also how to achieve certain goals,” she stated. Ultimately, she observes that clients are seeking solutions to reach a specific target rather than an opinion on a particular product. “This means people are requesting much more advice,” she argued. In this realm, it is inevitable to consider the impact artificial intelligence will have on advisory services. Ricciardi recalled that a few years ago, the industry thought robo-advisors “were going to dominate everything.” However, she concluded that when it comes to deciding what to do with your financial future, “you usually prefer to sit down and talk to someone.”

As the third major trend transforming the industry, the executive cited the huge growth of new vehicles. Specifically, she highlighted ETFs—especially actively managed ones—which help facilitate investor access to the world of investing.

Ricciardi also discussed her goals for Fidelity International. She acknowledged the firm’s profile as an asset manager in EMEA, but also highlighted the importance of its direct-access investment platforms, which allow them to “better understand our clients’ needs and offer them solutions throughout their entire lifecycle.” This even extends to retirement solutions for corporate clients. Ultimately, “Fidelity goes far beyond simple investment management. We have extensive knowledge on how to interact with clients and support them throughout the entire lifecycle of their investments,” she declared.

As an underlying priority, Ricciardi noted that they are working “very hard” to position Fidelity as a strategic partner for clients amid an industry trend where investors are reducing their number of providers.

Retirement

The pensions industry was the focal point of Ricciardi’s presentation. “It has always been a challenge,” she admitted, emphasizing that “the numbers are very revealing and certainly quite concerning.” The executive highlighted the global demographic challenge, concluding that “the numbers simply do not add up” regarding public pensions. “It is important for governments to start thinking about how to ensure citizens reflect on whether they have enough money saved and invested, and whether it will last them into retirement,” she pointed out, citing instruments like the Altersvorsorgedepot—a new private pension model in Germany effective as of January 1, 2027. “This could serve as a good example for mobilizing the 13 trillion euros in deposits currently held by European citizens,” she assured.

Ricciardi believes the Capital Markets Union (CMU) is a good first step toward encouraging people to move from cash to investments, noting that the challenge lies in the fact that each country will decide how to proceed. She referenced studies showing that what truly makes a difference is auto-enrollment in pension plans and including tax incentives, as well as having access to all savings in a single location alongside pension simulators, as is done in Sweden.

In reality, this landscape is full of opportunities, according to Ricciardi. “If in three years people think Fidelity is the ideal retirement company, I would be very happy,” stated the executive, who underscored the firm’s long-term vision and its “DNA fully tied to the retirement sector.”

ETFs

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been a booming instrument for several years. Ricciardi recalled that active ETFs have grown from $800 billion to $2 trillion and are projected to reach $4 trillion by 2030. “It meets an existing demand” and “they are useful” because they offer a more innovative way to invest, according to the Fidelity International executive, giving savers another avenue to grow their money through an innovative instrument. In the case of active ETFs, they combine the innovation of the vehicle with active management as the underlying component.

Ricciardi “firmly” believes that ETFs incentivize savers to become investors and save more, in addition to being a good instrument to use in investment portfolios. On this point, she revealed that the firm is the second-largest active ETF provider in Europe. Although she is aware that “competition is fierce” and the ultimate aspiration is “to be number one,” Ricciardi would be satisfied remaining in the top three.

In terms of figures, Ricciardi noted that the firm currently manages approximately $17 billion in ETFs, with the goal of more than tripling that figure over the next two years.

Regarding artificial intelligence, Ricciardi believes it “is changing how we distribute, as clients are closer to being able to meet their expectations than in the past,” thereby making investing easier. However, she also believes that when it comes to making major decisions, such as closing a deal, there will continue to be plenty of room for human interaction and personal conversation.

Fiscal Credibility, Debt, and Riots: Why Are Investors Watching France?

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Investors are closely monitoring social unrest in Europe, led mainly by France. According to experts at international asset managers, October could be a complicated month for global markets considering the US midterm elections, rising bond yields, and geopolitical and domestic political risks, which do not appear to be losing momentum.

“October is a month that strikes fear into the heart of many investors due to the dramatic, high-profile sell-offs experienced that month in 1929, 1987, and 2008. The negative perception of October is more psychological than real, as historically it has not been the worst month for stock market investing. However, psychology is important when it comes to the markets, and with bond yields hitting multi-year highs, several major elections around the corner, and the US midterm elections just a month away, it seems October is taking us straight into the danger zone,” acknowledges Kristina Hooper, Chief Market Strategist at Man Group.

From Aberdeen Investments, they note that short-term selling pressure may not be over. “Rising oil and gas prices have highlighted pre-existing weaknesses in the fiscal credibility of the US, the UK, and France, as well as persistent inflation, while forced liquidations by leveraged investors have amplified these moves. The only factor that could clearly halt this trend is an improvement in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East,” they indicate.

The Case of France

For now, the big focus is France, as spreads on its sovereign debt have reached new highs while fiscal consolidation seems increasingly distant. It is worth noting that the wave of riots and violence that has broken out responds to social discontent resulting from government cuts and rising inflation. “With the French 10-year bond close to 5%, the 140-billion-euro net savings program proposed by Le Pen arouses skepticism by requiring a gross adjustment of 185 billion euros and relying on unrealistic GDP growth of 1.8%, compared to real estimates of between 0.5% and 0.8% for 2026. The lack of a solution to the French deficit revives the ghost of the 2012 sovereign debt crisis, placing the European Central Bank before the dilemma of letting debt fall and harming confidence in the euro, or intervening and rewarding fiscal indiscipline, creating moral hazard in the rest of the region,” points out Javier Cabrera, analyst at XTB.

For Erick Muller, Director of Product and Market Strategy and Co-Head of the Asset Allocation Group at Muzinich & Co, political gridlock and the proximity of the 2027 elections make it difficult to adopt corrective measures and could prolong uncertainty in the markets. “France is a good example of the difficulties developed economies face in controlling public spending. In 2026, its deficit stands at around 5.6% of GDP, and the interest cost on debt is increasing considerably. This year, interest expenditure has gone from a forecast of 70 billion euros to approximately 80 billion. In 2027 it could reach 92 billion, and in 2028 be close to 100 billion. To put these figures in perspective, the government is trying to find savings of 53 billion euros, something I don’t think it will achieve. We are talking about an increase of around 30 billion in interest payments in just three years. It is a very difficult situation to solve,” he explains.

In his opinion, France’s problem is that the economy is slowing down and the political landscape makes any fiscal response extremely difficult. “Expected growth for 2026 has been reduced to practically half of what was initially expected, which also affects public accounts. Markets are asking what the answer is to this deterioration, and for now, they are not finding any satisfactory one,” he adds.

Return of the Bond Vigilantes?

In this context, investors are paying close attention to the spike in debt yields and the course of the Federal Reserve—have the “bond vigilantes” returned? For Giordano Lombardo, founder, CEO, and CIO of Plenisfer Investments (Generali Investments), yes; furthermore, he warns that the boom in AI investment, increasingly financed by debt, and rising public deficits are increasing pressure on fixed-income markets and elevating stagflation risks.

According to his analysis, the increase in bond yields extended to public securities of other countries. “All major fixed-income markets registered negative returns, except China. In recent weeks, concerns surrounding government bonds of certain Eurozone countries have resurfaced strongly, and France seems to be the epicenter of the crisis this time due to the sharp increase in its public deficit and the prospect of elections that could further worsen the sustainability of public finances,” he states. Moreover, he considers that waves of pessimism in the fixed-income market also affected the technology sector.

His main conclusion is that we have entered a phase of structural bear market conditions for bonds. “However, in recent months, the role of the Federal Reserve has once again become the dominant factor driving short-term movements in the bond market. In addition, the fiscal policies of major economies have all been expansionary, at least over the last fifteen years and especially following the post-pandemic measures introduced in 2020. In the US and Europe, there do not appear to be political forces interested in returning to the fiscal discipline of previous decades,” he qualifies.

Natixis IM Strengthens Its Distribution Model With the Creation of a Global Client Development Division

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Fabrice Chemouny, director of Chief Client Officer.

Natixis Investment Managers (Natixis IM) has announced the creation of the Global Client Development division, which will bring together all teams involved in client services across the entire value chain. According to the asset manager, the new division will feature three areas: Client Markets, organized into six geographic regions; Partnerships; and Product Range & Solutions.

Additionally, it announces that Fabrice Chemouny, current Head of International Distribution, will lead this division as Chief Client Officer. He will assume his new role on January 1, 2027, reporting directly to Philippe Setbon, CEO of Natixis IM. As clarified, this new organizational structure will be implemented following the conclusion of the information and consultation process with the relevant employee representative bodies.

This new organization is part of Groupe BPCE’s VISION 2030 strategic plan. Based on Natixis IM’s ambition for organic growth, this transformation aims, in particular, to adapt the firm’s distribution model to accelerate its global growth and better respond to client needs.

According to the announcement, the creation of a single global platform, which will integrate the United States and other international markets, will foster synergies across regions, provide clients with access to the full range of investment capabilities of Natixis IM and its affiliated investment managers, and enhance operational agility.

The new division will be structured around three main pillars. First, Client Markets, which is a single distribution platform organized into six regions, with each region focused on meeting the needs and investment preferences of its clients, taking into account local market regulations and specifics: United States; Northern Europe and Canada: United Kingdom, Netherlands, Nordics, and Canada; Continental Europe and Latin America: Western and Southern Europe, including France; Central and Eastern Europe; Latin America; and US Offshore; Middle East, Central Asia, and Africa; Asia-Pacific, excluding Japan; and Japan.

Second, a new Partnerships area, whose mission will be to strengthen existing strategic distribution alliances and establish new ones with banking networks, insurers, and other distributors worldwide, with the goal of making Natixis IM’s offering accessible to a broader client base. And finally, a new Product Range & Solutions department. As explained, this area will define the product range strategy based on client needs, developing solutions in areas such as retirement, long-term savings, and wealth management, drawing upon the offerings of investment managers affiliated with Natixis IM.

“We are a global player with deep local roots. In an increasingly fragmented international environment, we want to strengthen both dimensions. Our strategic plan has proven successful, and we want to take it a step further. This new organization further reinforces the central role of clients in our model across all regions and helps accelerate our growth,” stated Philippe Setbon, CEO of Natixis Investment Managers.

For his part, Fabrice Chemouny, who will assume the role of Chief Client Officer of Natixis Investment Managers effective January 1, 2027, added: “By bringing our teams together into a new global organization, we combine a deep understanding of each market with the strength of an international player. Furthermore, we will make our offering accessible to a greater number of clients through new distribution alliances and work with them to develop solutions tailored to their long-term needs. This transformation will provide us with the agility needed to navigate volatile markets, foster synergies across regions, and drive innovation for the benefit of our clients.”

The Funds Industry Faces New Data-Driven Supervision

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Authorities will evaluate governance based on its effectiveness under stress, prioritizing the use of “better data” rather than a higher volume of reports to detect risks in time. ESMA drives new UCITS rules to standardize information, while the CSSF intensifies supervision of conflicts of interest in delegation agreements. Luxembourg plans to make its unregulated funds more flexible through segregated compartments, and the United Kingdom has just presented its largest post-Brexit asset management reform.

Regulators are increasingly examining how governance and delegation operate in practice, using higher quality data and more visible on-site supervision to drive targeted supervisory actions. Therefore, the central theme of Carne Group’s third-quarter update points to how companies are being driven toward more resilient models of delegation and fund structuring, through “smart” supervision that uses standardized, high-quality data to detect issues early rather than after the fact.

In the report, the firm analyzes the Central Bank of Ireland’s review of the delegation framework and the growing expectation that governance will be evaluated by how it functions under stress, not just on paper. In addition to ESMA’s ongoing effort toward reporting harmonization, the recent work by the CSSF on conflicts of interest, the potential for segregated liability compartments in unregulated funds, and the Financial Conduct Authority’s (FCA) proposal for the new U.K. asset management framework.

Review of the CBI Delegation Framework

The Central Bank of Ireland’s (CBI) July 2026 delegation review marks an important evolution in regulatory expectations, rather than a challenge to the delegation model itself. It concludes that delegation remains fundamental to the European fund industry. The broader issue it addresses concerns how effectively governance operates in practice, rather than simply what structures exist. For managers and delegates, this means a greater emphasis on demonstrable supervision, accountability, and resilience.

Effective governance increasingly depends on factors such as timely, reliable, and connected information. For this reason, the Central Bank identified fragmented systems, manual reconciliations, and weak contingency planning as areas for improvement. What they seek with this is to prioritize quality over quantity; that is, “better data” as opposed to “more data.” If companies collect information intelligently and connect it effectively, they can identify risk areas without creating unnecessary layers of reporting. Consequently, they can scale their business and become much more effective supervisors of delegates.

ESMA Drives Supervisory Convergence

ESMA continues to drive supervisory convergence and the harmonization of reporting, particularly through new UCITS reporting rules expected in the autumn. These will require more detailed information on liquidity, risk management, delegation arrangements, and investment markets and instruments. Implementation will require operational work, but in turn, it creates an opportunity to move away from ad hoc reporting toward consolidated and flexible reporting capabilities. Standardized data requirements could reduce point-in-time regulatory requests and allow companies to use regulatory data more proactively across all their businesses.

UCITS is already a fully harmonized European framework, making it a logical vehicle for greater standardization across all markets. However, at Carne Group they perceive some caution regarding ESMA assuming a broader supervisory role, with a preference for harmonization when it creates a level playing field while retaining the expertise of national regulators, such as those in Ireland and Luxembourg. Amendments in the European Parliament are also not in favor of ESMA becoming a single supervisor. This falls within a broader macroeconomic dynamic amid a growing focus on European champions.

Therefore, the question is how far supervisory convergence can go while maintaining national expertise, which remains important for Europe’s fund industry. ESMA’s Common Supervisory Action is also analyzing the risk management function, including whether companies have genuinely independent risk functions, adequate expertise, sufficient authority, appropriate staffing, and effective oversight by senior management. Unlike previous thematic reviews, the focus is centered directly on whether the function can operate effectively and independently.

On September 28, ESMA set its priorities for 2027, which include delivering on key elements of the Savings and Investments Union (SIU) agenda and advancing capabilities in data, artificial intelligence, and tokenization.

Conflicts of Interest: The CSSF Identifies Key Areas of Focus

Recent work by Luxembourg’s CSSF on conflicts of interest underscores the growing regulatory focus on how governance operates in practice, particularly where delegation arrangements exist. The CSSF has identified conflicts that can arise when commercial partners or initiators are appointed as investment advisors or portfolio managers. For example, when an initiator acts as a portfolio manager, they must have both the capability and the willingness to operate independent controls. If the investment manager retains portfolio management, there is a risk that the investment fund manager (IFM) will follow the initiator’s guidelines rather than acting independently in the best interest of the fund.

Another concern is that commercial partners or initiators may attempt to influence asset valuations, potentially affecting the independence of the valuation process and the IFM’s ability to act in the best interest of investors. The CSSF is also analyzing “white-label” firms, where conflicts may arise from the allocation of responsibilities, particularly when individuals linked to commercial partners or initiators occupy roles, functions, or positions in reporting lines that give rise to conflicts.

Segregated Liability Compartments for Unregulated Funds

A proposed change to Luxembourg’s fund framework could provide greater flexibility to private equity managers using Société en Commandite Simple (SCS) and Société en Commandite Spéciale (SCSp) structures. Standard SCSps are widely used in the world of private equity and infrastructure funds. However, an unregulated SCSp cannot legally create umbrella “sub-funds” with ring-fenced liabilities. Managers seeking segregated compartments typically need to use structures like RAIFs, SIFs, SICARs, or a Part II Fund, all of which carry additional legal product requirements.

The new proposal introduces a new Article 28bis to the Luxembourg AIFM Law, allowing eligible SCS and SCSp AIFs to legally create segregated compartments. Each compartment would have legally separate assets, liabilities, investors, and creditors, and creditors of a compartment would generally have recourse only against the assets of that compartment. Therefore, a single SCSp could contain multiple compartments representing different strategies, vintages, parallel vehicles, co-investment tranches, or separate groups of investors within a single legal entity. Individual compartments could also be liquidated independently, while cross-investment between compartments would be possible subject to safeguards.

If the proposal (still subject to Luxembourg’s parliamentary process) moves forward in its current state, managers currently using separate SCSp vehicles or RAIF umbrellas to achieve segregated liability could achieve the same result through a single unregulated SCSp platform managed by an authorized AIFM.

Regulation of Asset Management in the U.K.

In mid-July, the FCA launched the largest reform of the U.K. asset management framework since Brexit, consulting on an entirely new U.K. AIFM regime alongside Treasury (HM Treasury) legislation. Rather than maintaining inherited EU rules, the FCA wants a more proportionate, simpler regime tailored to different manager sizes. It has also proposed simplifying remuneration requirements and reviewing fund reporting.

The U.K. regulator has a number of statutory objectives, including promoting the global competitiveness of the U.K. financial sector. However, “it remains to be seen whether the new framework will ultimately drive greater divergence or alignment with European regulation,” notes the study. Therefore, the firm asserts that for the market, the key point will be how a simpler and more proportionate U.K. regime operates alongside the requirements faced by managers operating in Europe.

The War in Iran and the El Niño Phenomenon Transform the Agricultural Commodities Market

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

The Center for Climate Prediction of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) maintained an advisory on the El Niño phenomenon and stated that it is intensifying, with a probability exceeding 90% that a very intense episode will occur during the autumn and winter of the Northern Hemisphere in 2026-27. The starting point for any outlook on the agricultural market facing 2027 is that meteorological agencies have reached a consensus, and have done so with unusual certainty.

The World Meteorological Organization reached the same conclusion on September 3, indicating a probability close to 100% that El Niño will persist during the periods from September to November 2026 and from December to February 2027, with the forecast that the phenomenon will reach a very strong intensity before reaching its peak toward the end of the year. Monitoring data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology agree: the so-called relative El Niño 3.4 index reached +2.51 °C in the week ending September 13, compared to an El Niño threshold of +0.80 °C, while most models indicate that a maximum exceeding +3.0 °C will be reached and it is forecast that the phenomenon will persist until the autumn of 2027.

Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), from 2000 to Present. Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Bloomberg Finance L.P. and WisdomTree, as of July 31, 2026.

The effects of El Niño on agriculture occur with a delay of between six and twelve months relative to the peak, due to the time it takes for atmospheric changes to modify local climate, affect crop cycles and impact global supply chains. Therefore, an event that reaches its peak at the end of the year impacts more directly the 2026/27 crops that are currently being sown or prepared: the Southern Hemisphere summer harvest, India’s Rabi season, West Africa’s main harvest, and Southeast Asia’s oil palm and robusta coffee cycles. The price impacts of what is happening in the Pacific will be felt mainly starting in 2027.

The Gulf Conflict Has Shifted from Focusing on Energy to Being a Matter of Inputs

The Gulf conflict has lasted seven months now and, instead of stabilizing, it has escalated. The ceasefire agreed upon in April and the memorandum of understanding signed in June were rendered ineffective when hostilities resumed in July. The recent event with the greatest impact took place on September 11, when Saudi Arabia closed its 1,200-kilometer east-west pipeline following a drone attack, which meant the closure of the main route by which Gulf crude bypasses the Strait of Hormuz.

In the agricultural sector, main exposure derives from the trade of fertilizers and raw materials transiting through the same waterway, and it is precisely the difference compared to 2022 that makes it lasting. The war between Russia and Ukraine in 2022 diverted trade flows, whereas this one has diminished productive capacity. It is estimated that 31 ammonia plants across the Middle East have been directly affected or closed down completely; another 49 in South Asia have reduced production or are halted due to raw material shortages; and at least 20 Russian plants have suffered damage due to drone attacks.

Their reactivation will require time and capital far beyond the end of hostilities. Persian Gulf countries account for approximately 43% of seaborne urea exports and 44% of seaborne sulfur trade. Even in the United States, which obtains two-thirds of both its urea and phosphate from the domestic market, 12% of the urea supply and 17% of DAP/MAP (diammonium phosphate/monoammonium phosphate) comes from beyond the Strait. This points to a capacity constraint extending across several seasons, rather than a freight transport issue.

Grains: A Group of Annual Crops That Already Carries a Risk Premium

The energy sector has recorded the largest individual variations of the year 2026, and refined products and crude oil occupy four of the top five spots. However, what is most revealing about the year-to-date performance table is the breadth, rather than the magnitude. Agriculture occupies virtually the entire space of the ranking between rice and sugar.

Cumulative Performance Year-to-Date Across Commodity Groups. Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. and WisdomTree, as of September 21, 2026.

What has driven crops throughout the year has been almost exclusively geopolitical and input factors, rather than weather factors. Wheat is the clearest example: the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report for September was clearly bearish, as world production for the 2026/27 campaign was revised upward by 3.1 million tons to 822.4 million due to increased harvests in Australia and Canada, and ending stocks were increased by 3 million tons to 276.3 million. However, wheat prices have risen 42% year-to-date, as continued Russian and Ukrainian attacks against Black Sea port infrastructure have disrupted the physical route for nearly a quarter of world wheat exports. Net speculative positioning in wheat increased 130% last month, reflecting an improvement in confidence regarding this grain. For this commodity, the structural outlook could depend on whether the current risk premium proves persistent, rather than sporadic. Black Sea infrastructure has now become a recurrent target, rather than representing a one-off disruption, and Australian wheat is in the highest exposure band to El Niño for the 2026/27 harvest.

On the other hand, corn markets are highlighting a genuine supply contraction. U.S. production for 2026/27 was cut by 5.4 million tons to 401.3 million due to hot conditions and uneven rainfall. Global production was reduced by 7.9 million tons to 1,291 million, and global ending stocks fell by 2.6 million tons to 272.1 million. Net positioning increased 92%. In the case of corn, the argument that has been made for years is the constraint in inputs. Corn is the most nitrogen-intensive crop, and fertilizer prices are projected to remain above pre-conflict levels until 2028. Where prolonged under-application of phosphate and potassium is already observed, doses have decreased between 10% and 15% in recent years. Consequences on yield manifest with a three-year lag. This is a slow, cumulative drag that affects the yield trend, rather than a one-off single-season disruption, and is the mechanism by which this conflict extends beyond itself.

Meanwhile, the soybean sector has been driven more by demand than supply. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised U.S. production to 123.4 million tons, but China has already purchased nearly 13 million tons this season, representing more than half of its annual commitment of 25 million tons, valid until the year 2028, in addition to a broader commitment to purchase $17 billion worth of agricultural products. China’s purchase commitment extends until 2028 and could provide some demand support that depends less directly on weather conditions. The reason for short-term caution is stocks: soybean and soybean oil reserves stand 7.9% and 8.5% above their five-year seasonal averages. Soybean oil features an additional and underappreciated support factor in the energy context: with crude oil above $100, biofuel demand could strengthen the vegetable oil sector independently of oil production.

Soft Commodities: The Sector Where the Meteorological Signal Is Least Reflected in Prices

The cumulative year-to-date performance table makes it clear. Sugar is up 20%, cotton up 25%, but cocoa is down 9%, coffee down 22%, and orange juice down 28%. The soft agricultural products sector, which historically has shown the greatest sensitivity to El Niño, has been the weakest link in the agricultural sector this year.

The exception is sugar and the clearest expression of the double impact. In early September, raw sugar was trading at 18.44 cents per pound, near the 16-month high located at 18.77 cents, as supply reduction reinforced expectations of a deficit in the 2026/27 campaign. Production in center-south Brazil fell 7.9% during the first half of August, and high energy prices continue to encourage mills to prioritize ethanol over sugar. India has authorized the duty-free import of one million tons of raw material, while drastically reducing ethanol diversion, a combination of measures suggesting domestic stocks are tighter than official figures indicate. Monsoon rainfall has been significantly below normal in Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Marathwada, regions representing close to one-third of Indian production. Sugar is affected by both meteorological conditions and energy price pass-through, and holds the thinnest inventory cushion among major soft agricultural products.

Cocoa is the crop generating the most controversy. Prices have recovered strongly since the low recorded in the second quarter, with New York futures standing around $6,250 per ton, and rainfall in West Africa during the August mini-drought was well below normal levels for this time of year, representing a real risk to pod survival and main crop development if rain does not fall. In contrast, the stock situation is fundamentally different from that of 2023/24. ICE-certified stocks have recovered to near their two-year high, while European cocoa grindings in the first quarter fell 4.6% year-on-year to reach their lowest level in 17 years. The cocoa sector faces this El Niño episode with reserves it lacked two years ago, and with demand clearly damped by the previous price crisis. The bullish thesis is based on weather conditions overcoming those reserves; it is not the same strategy as in 2023.

Regarding Arabica coffee, it faces improving supply: the Brazilian harvest is well advanced and revised export registry data indicate significantly higher flows than previously reported. Certified stocks remain near multi-year lows and physical availability is tight, but the supply trend is positive. The Robusta variety is the most interesting investment. It has been trading near multi-month lows, around $3,296 per ton, precisely as drought spreads across Indonesia and Vietnam during a critical flowering period. Since coffee is a perennial plant, damage suffered during flowering affects the 2027/28 crop, not the current one. Robusta coffee prices stand near their recent lows, even though major producing regions lie in the highest exposure band to the El Niño phenomenon. This creates a divergence between current prices and potential meteorological risks threatening supply.

For its part, cotton is up 25% year-to-date and is the commodity most dependent on demand. Recent price evolution has been downward due to improving U.S. crop conditions, declining export sales, and a strengthening dollar. The curve is in contango, somewhat steepened compared to wheat or corn, which contrasts with cotton stocks being the tightest of the group seasonally. That divergence highlights that the market is placing more weight on current crop conditions than on previous harvest scarcity, and that should a weather disruption occur in 2027, there would be very little margin for error. However, the long-term evolution of cotton is more closely tied to global textile demand and the dollar than to the Pacific region.

Conclusion

Two disruptions impact the same production window from different directions. The Gulf conflict increases cost and limits availability of inputs used prior to the 2026/27 campaign, doing so over a multi-year horizon, as damage affects production capacity rather than trade routes. El Niño increases the likelihood that the yields those inputs aim to protect fall below trend, with a lag in market transmission between six and twelve months relative to the oceanic peak, meaning its effects will be felt mainly in 2027.

The intensity of El Niño and its regional meteorological effects could differ from current forecasts, while an easing of geopolitical tensions could reduce pressure on energy and fertilizer markets. Better-than-expected harvests, inventory replenishment, lower demand, or changes in government policy could also offset pressures arising from meteorological conditions and input costs, resulting in commodity price performance different from that analyzed above.

What Are Semi-Liquid Funds?

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

For years, investing in private markets implied accepting a demanding commitment: locking up capital for eight, ten, or more years, with no real possibility of early exit. Semi-liquid funds emerged to soften that restriction and bring these asset classes closer to a broader investor audience.

It is a middle ground between two worlds. A semi-liquid fund is a vehicle that invests in non-publicly traded assets, such as unlisted companies, private loans, infrastructure, or real estate, but offers the investor a certain capacity to enter and exit on a periodic basis. It is thus situated between traditional funds with daily liquidity and classic closed-end private equity funds.

The key difference lies in frequency. While a conventional equity fund allows participations to be redeemed on any business day, a semi-liquid fund typically opens liquidity windows on a monthly, quarterly, or even semi-annual basis.

How Liquidity Is Managed

The underlying assets cannot be sold overnight without sacrificing value. For this reason, these funds incorporate protection mechanisms for the benefit of all unitholders. The most common are:

Advance notice: Investors must communicate their intention to exit weeks or months in advance.
Redemption caps: Many funds set a limit per period, for example, a percentage of total assets. If requests exceed this limit, they are met on a proportional basis.
Initial lock-up periods: A minimum holding period is common before requesting an exit.
Liquidity reserves: Part of the portfolio is kept in more liquid assets to meet ordinary redemptions.

These mechanisms are not a flaw, but part of the design. They acknowledge that the illiquidity of the asset is inherent to the strategy.

What the Investor Looks For

The main appeal is the illiquidity premium: the additional return that, in theory, is obtained by holding assets that cannot be sold quickly. Added to this are diversification—since private markets have dynamics different from public ones—and access to opportunities not available on the stock exchange.

Furthermore, the format lowers barriers. Many semi-liquid vehicles allow lower minimum investments than traditional closed-end funds and avoid staggered capital calls, where investors must contribute funds as the manager requests them.

Risks and Points of Attention

Liquidity is “semi,” not total. In stress scenarios, when many unitholders want to exit at the same time, limits can be activated and delay payment. It is crucial, therefore, not to consider these investments as capital for immediate use.

Attention should also be paid to valuation. As these are unlisted assets, their price is calculated through models and periodic appraisals, rather than daily market quotes, which can artificially smooth apparent volatility. And, as with any alternative strategy, fees tend to be higher than in traditional management.

A Tool, Not a Universal Solution

Semi-liquid funds expand options for those seeking to diversify beyond equities and fixed income. Their usefulness depends on the investor’s time horizon, liquidity needs, and understanding of the exit terms. Reading the prospectus in detail, understanding the redemption rules, and allocating only a prudent portion of the portfolio are basic practices before investing.

U.S. Inflation in September and Implications for the Fed

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Inflation concerns continue to be the heaviest factor explaining short-term equity movements. The consensus among economists anticipated a strong U.S. inflation reading for September, which ultimately surprised on the downside: headline CPI reached +0.6%, in line with the year-over-year rate moving from 3.4% to 3.7%, while core CPI came in at +0.3% versus the +0.2% expected, shifting from 2.4% to 2.6% year-over-year. Its impact was amplified by the proximity of the Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for the 28th.

However, we believe the release was not strong enough to justify another rate hike in October. Beyond the impact of rising energy costs and the effect of AI investments on the prices of PCs, software, and mobile phones, the only aspect to monitor is the uptick in Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER), which rose compared to the previous month.

The market’s immediate reaction to the data was to push expectations of a 25-basis-point rate hike in federal funds higher: probabilities spiked above 70%, only to quickly retreat to 12.7%, the lowest level since June. The September retail sales data (which deteriorated relative to August), the moderation in import prices shown in the Philadelphia Fed survey, and comments from Mary Daly (San Francisco Fed) and Michelle Bowman—who do not foresee a rate hike this month—exerted downward pressure on that probability, aiding the Treasury bond market. Regarding the U.S. Treasury bond, we do not believe that developments in the neocloud sector, discussed in the next section, were the main driver behind the yield compression. Investment in AI will continue to contribute positively to GDP in the coming months.

AI: Neocloud Strain and Ongoing Adoption

Inflation and its initial effect on the Treasury yield (which exceeded 5.32% on Wednesday before stabilizing near 5.08% on Friday) was also the catalyst for the sharp drop in share prices among neocloud companies. CoreWeave alarmed investors at the worst possible time by communicating that it would like to achieve an investment-grade credit rating to finance its growth on an “unlimited” basis. Its debt fell below 80 (against a par value of 100), having traded at par just a few months ago, while its CDS priced in a more than 50% probability of default over the next five years.

We consider this an isolated case affecting a subsegment of technology companies with higher financial leverage and greater sensitivity to rate hikes, rather than a red flag for the broader set of companies linked to the AI theme.

For now, the adoption of paid AI services among both large and small enterprises continues to advance, rising from 8% in large firms and less than 4% in small ones at the start of 2023 to 67% of large, 62% of mid-sized, and 50% of small businesses today—all within just three and a half years. Moreover, investments are being monetized: aggregate cloud revenues among major compute providers grew 43% year-over-year in the second quarter, based on nearly $370 billion over the last twelve months.

Geopolitics and the “Incompetence Premium” in U.S. Debt

In the short term, the evolution of inflation readings will be determined primarily by geopolitical factors. In this regard, uncertainty has heightened recently: Iran, through its Revolutionary Guard, has intensified threats against vessels that might “illegally” attempt to trade or load oil in the strait. Similarly, the Wall Street Journal reported comments from Iranian authorities regarding the deployment of troops to carry out retaliatory actions against U.S. allies in the Gulf.

As we have been explaining, one of the Iranians’ objectives is to keep the price of crude oil near $100 per barrel to minimize Trump’s chances of retaining control of the Senate as much as possible. However, the escalation in hostilities places Iran in a difficult situation to manage: overreaching in its pressure could hand Trump the justification he needs to strike with greater force once control of both houses is lost on November 3.

A poorly explained war, an imprecise central bank, and Treasury buybacks too small to move the needle have exasperated fixed-income buyers. Some strategists are already referring to an “incompetence premium” impacting the pricing of U.S. sovereign debt.

Woodford, Warsh, and the Abandonment of Forward Guidance

This is why the coincidence surrounding Kevin Warsh’s abandonment of forward guidance—which likely affected the structure of the yield curve—and the Nobel Prize in Economics awarded to Michael Woodford, arguably the academic who put the most effort into establishing a theoretical foundation for that concept, remains curious. The award arrived last Monday, October 12, four months after Warsh dropped the concept in the FOMC statement on June 17. That said, the contradiction is smaller than it appears at first glance.

In Interest and Prices (2003), Woodford argued that monetary policy operates primarily through expectations of the future rate trajectory rather than the rate applied today. At Jackson Hole (2012), he extended that concept to zero-lower-bound (ZIRP) environments. His recommendation was to communicate guidance state-contingent on the economy rather than tied to a calendar date. The Fed implemented this in December 2012 by incorporating unemployment and inflation thresholds into the FOMC statement.

His subsequent work with García-Schmidt (2019) on economic agents planning over finite horizons significantly tempers the impact of long-term projections. Thus, within his own body of work, we find reasons to believe that guidance was less potent than the models suggested.

In reality, the disagreement with Warsh lies in substance, not form. For Woodford, what must be communicated is the central bank’s reaction function to incoming data, not the path of interest rates. Warsh states that guidance has “outlasted its usefulness” and offers instead a “framework” or “roadmap,” provided it is not termed forward guidance. This closely aligns with abandoning the rate trajectory while retaining the reaction function—which is precisely what Wall Street requested.

Furthermore, an important nuance exists: Woodford advocated guidance as a tool specifically when rates are at zero. With federal funds at 3.75–4%, its marginal utility is significantly lower. Therefore, in my view, extrapolating what occurred post-COVID (in 2021, the issue lay in committing to a rate path in an unprecedented environment amid runaway inflation) with Powell’s “transitory inflation” commentary and the resulting loss of credibility would be a mistake.

What occurred then does not prove that communicating the Fed’s reaction function to the market is useless. The risk lies in leaving the market to guess it, which inherently increases uncertainty, noise, and volatility in the fixed-income market.

In summary, the Fed’s reaction function is the rule, explicit or implicit, that translates the state of the economy into a rate decision. Communicating it means telling the market how the Fed decides, without promising what it will do.

Communicating the reaction function establishes the rule: the market continues to react to data, but in the direction and magnitude intended by the Fed—exactly what Woodford advocated. The question with Warsh is whether, in removing guidance, he will also cease to communicate the rule.

Historic Record in Assets Under Management: BlackRock Crosses the $15.5 Trillion Threshold

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Photo courtesyLarry Fink, CEO and Chairman of BlackRock.

In its third-quarter results presentation, BlackRock announced that it has crossed the $15.5 trillion threshold in assets under management (AUM), driven by $869 billion in net inflows over the last twelve months, representing organic growth in base fees of 10%. “These results demonstrate the value of our integrated platform, as clients increasingly choose us as a partner in investment, financing, and technology. That client trust is translating into greater earnings power, with shareholders benefiting from a more than 35% year-over-year increase in adjusted earnings per share, an adjusted operating margin of 47.8%, and annualized organic base fee growth of 11% in the third quarter,” highlighted Larry Fink, CEO and Chairman of BlackRock.

This momentum is reflected in the $205 billion in net inflows recorded during the third quarter and an 11% annualized organic base fee growth, reflecting broad-based strength across iShares ETFs, systematic active equities, private markets, and cash. In this regard, Fink added: “Clients entrusted us with $205 billion in net inflows this quarter, and $869 billion over the past year. Our results reflect BlackRock’s scale, with 12% growth in technology ACV (Annual Contract Value) and net inflows across all asset classes, client types, regions, and in both active and index management.”

Solid investment performance drove $66 billion in active net inflows led by fixed income and systematic franchises, while iShares generated $135 billion in net inflows. “BlackRock brings together issuer relationships built over decades, financing expertise, investment performance, and the technology and data that connect everything. That combination is differentiating us in every region,” commented the CEO, highlighting the securing of mandates at the forefront of capital markets, raising $68 billion in private markets over the past year, and the first deployment of its AI Infrastructure Partnership. “We are entering our seasonally strongest fourth quarter with accelerating momentum and a broad pipeline. Demand for capital is growing across the global economy, and BlackRock is increasingly at the center of how that capital is deployed and managed,” Fink concluded.

Business Lines

On a financial level, investment advisory, administration fees, and securities lending revenue increased by $990 million compared to the third quarter of 2025, driven by organic base fee growth and the impact of market beta on average AUM. Compared to the second quarter of 2026, the increase was $310 million, also supported by the effect of one additional day in the quarter. Within this category, securities lending revenue reached $253 million (compared to $203 million in the third quarter of 2025 and $239 million in the second quarter of 2026), reflecting higher spreads and higher average balances of securities on loan.

On the other hand, performance fees grew by $114 million compared to the third quarter of 2025, primarily due to higher revenues from liquid alternative products related to a single hedge fund, partially offset by lower revenues in private markets. Compared to the second quarter of 2026, these fees increased by $325 million, driven by liquid alternative and private market products.

The firm’s technology business continued its expansion with 14% growth in technology services and subscription revenue year-over-year. In figures, this represented an increase of $73 million compared to the third quarter of 2025 and $22 million compared to the second quarter of 2026, reflecting sustained demand for Aladdin and multi-product solutions, with ACV increasing 12% year-over-year.

Finally, distribution fees experienced an increase of $59 million compared to the third quarter of 2025, an increase directly driven by the company’s higher average assets under management (AUM).