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The ISM Manufacturing Index Sends Clear Signals of Recovery

The first data of the year begins to confirm the impact of monetary and fiscal stimulus accumulated in Q4 2025. In particular, the January ISM Manufacturing survey delivered a positive surprise by returning to expansion territory with a reading of 52.6, breaking a streak of 10 consecutive months of contraction.

The rebound is supported by solid fundamentals such as:

New orders surged to 57.1 (an increase of around 10 points).
Production also posted a strong recovery.
Delivery times lengthened, consistent with stronger demand traction.
The “new orders – inventories” spread, a leading indicator of activity, accelerated after a flat 2025.

The employment subcomponent surprised to the upside, although it remains in contraction (48.1). This reinforces the perception of labor market stabilization, in line with recent jobless claims data. However, the figure does not yet confirm a sustained turnaround in manufacturing employment and therefore does not justify a hawkish shift from the Fed.

Labor Market in Progressive Normalization

The December JOLTs report, delayed due to the partial government shutdown, points to stability with nuances of weakness. Job openings declined, although voluntary quits edged up slightly (from 3.19 to 3.2 million), while layoffs did not worsen. The labor market remains in a post-pandemic normalization phase, with structurally lower demand in light of productivity gains.

Inflation: Mixed Signals and Need for Monitoring

The ISM also provides insights into price dynamics. While the prices paid series remains stable, the lengthening of delivery times could indicate early signs of price pressures. This remains an isolated data point, but given the acceleration in growth, it is advisable to monitor for potential second-round effects. The real-time inflation indicator from Truflation continues to trend downward, supporting our thesis of progressive disinflation.

However, a sharp shift in the growth outlook or a negative ruling by the Supreme Court regarding the use of tariffs could put pressure on yields and affect risk assets through:

Increased rate volatility
Less room for Fed rate cuts
Repricing of valuations

For this reason, we maintain a neutral view on equities, awaiting the right moment to increase positions.

Severe Correction in Software Within the Tech Sector

The week was also marked by a sharp correction in the technology sector, particularly in software. Despite the structural strength of the AI investment cycle, software companies experienced a capitulation session on Tuesday, with market capitalization losses exceeding $300 billion.

The decline was triggered by:

New functionalities announced by Anthropic CoWork
Comparisons to the impact of DeepSeek in 2025
Fears of disruption to SaaS models and per-user licensing
Initial drops concentrated in firms such as RELX, S&P Global, Thomson Reuters, and Legalzoom.com, later spreading across the sector and to private equity firms with significant exposure

However, the mass selloff appears to be driven more by panic than objective analysis. Disruption risk is real, but many stocks are already trading at decade-low multiples after a roughly 40% valuation compression. At these levels, much of the potential impact appears to be already priced in.

AI and CapEx: The Cycle Continues

Our view that 2026 will not be the year the AI bubble bursts is further reinforced. Hyperscalers are not only continuing to expand their computational capacity but are also significantly revising their investment plans upward. Alphabet now targets $180 billion, up from the previously expected $116 billion, while Amazon raises its estimate to $200 billion from the previous $150 billion. Altogether, AI investment could exceed $700 billion in 2026.

Toward a Less Concentrated Market

With more dynamic economic growth, the door opens to a more balanced market, where returns are no longer so heavily concentrated in technology and communications. The growing divergence in performance, and valuation, between winners and losers within the AI universe points to increased market selectivity.

The recent decline in software may have been the first step toward a broader rotation: from defensive growth to cyclicals, and from thematic concentration to structural diversification.

In conclusion, the ISM data signals the beginning of a new phase in the economic cycle, with manufacturing emerging from contraction and AI investment far from exhausted. However, concerns around inflationary pressure could resurface, requiring tactical caution and balanced portfolio construction. The key for 2026 will be clearly distinguishing between real opportunities and speculative noise surrounding disruptive technology.

Dynasty Financial Partners Closes a Minority Capital Round

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

Dynasty Financial Partners has announced the successful closing of a minority capital round, backed by its community of stakeholders, including employees, clients, and partners, as well as several long-term investors and members of its Board of Directors. According to the firm, investors in the round include The Charles Schwab Corporation, BlackRock, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Abry Partners, Glick Family Office, and Dynasty Chairman Harvey Golub, along with various clients. Fortress Investment Group LLC participated as a new investor. This marks the sixth capital round since Dynasty’s founding in 2010.

The funds raised in this round will be used to strengthen support for Dynasty’s network of partner firms, enabling them to better serve their clients. In particular, they will drive continued growth in talent and advanced AI-driven technology, facilitating the integration of Dynasty Desktop and Core Services; enhance the firm’s investment platform with a focus on private investments and its comprehensive Outsourced Chief Investment Officer (OCIO) services; provide additional growth capital to drive mergers and acquisitions within the network; expand Dynasty Investment Bank; and reinforce Dynasty’s strong balance sheet, positioning the firm to proactively capitalize on future opportunities.

“The future is bright for Dynasty and our network of independent advisors, thanks to the remarkable alignment within our ecosystem, as reflected in this investment round. As more advisors recognize the benefits of being independent RIA advisors, and more RIAs understand the power of outsourcing to grow their businesses, we are committed to ensuring they have every opportunity to build better firms while delivering exceptional care to their clients. We are investing in the best technology, talent, and resources, while strengthening our solid balance sheet to support our clients’ growth ambitions, whether through M&A or succession planning. I am deeply grateful to our investors, team members, industry partners, and clients who have supported us since Dynasty’s early days, making today’s announcement possible,” said Shirl Penney, Founder and CEO of Dynasty.

Dynasty’s network is primarily composed of clients who own and operate independent Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs). These RIAs typically hold majority ownership, control their own economics, own their ADV filings, and have the freedom to manage their client experience model. These clients leverage Dynasty’s integrated technology, services, robust Turnkey Asset Management Program (TAMP), digital lead-generation services, capital solutions, and investment bank.

This integrated RIA platform model provides synthetic scale, allowing RIAs supported by Dynasty to be “Independent, but not alone.” Currently, Dynasty has 58 partner firms in its network, representing over 500 advisors and managing more than $125 billion in platform assets.

In October 2024, Dynasty closed a minority capital round backed by several of its long-term investors and board members, along with three strategic investors, including existing investor The Charles Schwab Corporation and new investors BlackRock and J.P. Morgan Asset Management. While Dynasty currently carries no debt, the firm secured a $125 million corporate credit facility in 2025, backed by a syndicate of financial institutions including UMB Bank, N.A., Flagstar Bank, J.P. Morgan, Citibank, N.A., and Goldman Sachs Bank USA.

“This latest investment round reflects the incredible momentum of the independent movement within the financial advisory industry. The growth of the RIA space is driving positive change for advisors and their clients. Together with the other board members, I’m excited to continue supporting Shirl and the leadership team as they guide our growing network of independent advisors,” added Harvey Golub, Chairman of the Board at Dynasty.

China Tunes Its Growth Engines: Investment and Technological Innovation

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

China’s strong close in 2025 keeps the country’s outlook firm for 2026 and its growth target around 4%-5%, driven by technological innovation and investment. Looking ahead to next year, some of the tailwinds expected to support the Asian giant include stronger domestic consumption and improved diplomatic relations with the U.S.

“Although these factors could support the Chinese stock market, policy missteps are always a risk, and companies and consumers should play a leading role in driving growth,” note sources from KraneShares.

Macroeconomic Data: The GDP Deflator

According to Robert Gilhooly, senior economist specializing in emerging markets at Aberdeen Investments, the set of easing measures announced in recent weeks, along with the signal that cuts to key interest rates will occur in due course, will help underpin real GDP growth in 2026.

“However, the outlook for nominal growth may remain more challenging, as illustrated by the record streak of 11 consecutive quarters of negative growth in the GDP deflator. In fact, although recent data on fixed asset investment points to some success in reducing investment in the automotive industry, the economy-wide overcapacity is likely to continue weighing on inflation, partly because the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) appears more willing to allow greater appreciation of the renminbi. The large number of maturing fixed-term deposits opens the door to further interest rate cuts, while protecting banks’ net interest margins (NIM). A key question is whether these significant household savings will flow into the stock market; however, it is likely to be very difficult to spark a slow bull market,” Gilhooly concludes.

In this regard, Ecaterina Bigos, Chief Investment Officer for Asia excluding Japan at AXA IM Core (part of BNP Paribas AM), believes the country’s GDP deflator remains firmly in negative territory, falling for the third consecutive year, marking the longest stretch of broad price declines since the late 1970s.

“For equity investors, the GDP deflator is a key indicator for assessing corporate performance, profit growth potential, and overall market conditions. Despite signs of rising inflation, China continues to face various deflationary pressures. The country’s economy, which has been impacted by the decline in the real estate market and weak consumption, has struggled to emerge from the deflation recorded since the end of the pandemic. Overproduction in certain sectors has led to an oversupply of goods, forcing companies to cut prices to stay afloat,” explains Bigos.

Betting on Technological Innovation

In this context, KraneShares expects China’s 15th Five-Year Plan, scheduled for release in the first quarter, to support the development of high-tech industries, increase technological self-sufficiency, and stimulate domestic demand and inflation. “Efforts to curb overcapacity and downward competition, especially in the solar panel industry, could bear fruit in 2026, potentially resulting in improved corporate profit margins and inflation,” they add.

For now, the draft of this plan suggests that technological innovation and broad economic expansion are key priorities. At the same time, behind the scenes, top government leadership is paying close attention to the growth of domestic consumption.

Focusing on the main goals outlined during the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC), an annual economic meeting involving President Xi and the State Council—KraneShares experts highlight deepening the expansion of the “Artificial Intelligence +” policy; reforming policies to support high-quality development while correcting destructive competition; and stabilizing the real estate market through city-specific policies to optimize housing supply, including purchasing part of the existing commercial housing stock for affordable housing use.

“In December, President Xi published an article titled Expanding Domestic Demand Is a Strategic Move. In it, he stated that ‘expanding domestic demand is related to both economic stability and economic security,’ and that domestic demand will be supported, among other measures, by ‘promoting employment and improving social protection,’” they add.

The Relationship with the U.S.

KraneShares experts believe that the restart of diplomatic relations between the U.S. and China could bring greater clarity to global export markets for Chinese goods, the status of their ability to import high-end chips, and reduced volatility in equity markets, especially abroad.

“We believe markets are underestimating President Trump’s desire to reestablish U.S.-China relations. We are optimistic that the trade and national security measures already implemented or underway could give the Administration the confidence to work toward improving long-term relations,” they note. These measures include reshoring automobile manufacturing and other critical industries to the U.S., as well as export restrictions on chips.

“We believe President Trump may expand the trade truce established with President Xi during their meeting in South Korea earlier this year. Although we may see tougher legislative initiatives in Congress, such as the BIOSECURE Act, we think it is unlikely these will seriously derail the White House’s efforts,” they add.

Implications for Chinese Equities

Without a doubt, 2025 was a strong year for Chinese equities, driven by improved confidence, especially in growth and technology sectors. Many investors reallocated their portfolios during the year, although some remain on the sidelines, particularly U.S. investors sensitive to geopolitical headlines. And despite the challenging macroeconomic environment, Chinese equity markets posted returns above 10% in 2025.

In Bigos’ view, this divergence from macroeconomic trends may be due to the strong performance of sectors such as technology, thanks to advances in artificial intelligence, as well as biotech and others that also benefit from anti-involution initiatives. “Moreover, the increase in liquidity has supported the revaluation of companies, as savings have been redirected into equities: a dividend yield more attractive than deposit interest rates is drawing investors. Meanwhile, fixed income returns have declined, market volatility has increased, and the real estate market remains weak, prompting investors to seek alternative investment avenues,” she explains.

Looking ahead to this year, KraneShares experts believe that the 15th Five-Year Plan’s focus on technological self-sufficiency, anti-involution policies that improve corporate earnings, and increased consumer spending will allow for a strong year in China’s equity market. “Meanwhile, we believe the Trump administration will seek to move forward with the reestablishment of diplomatic relations with China, reducing headline risks and allowing some U.S. investors to reallocate their investments,” they emphasize.

For the AXA IM expert (part of BNP Paribas AM), weak confidence in the private sector and among consumers, along with supply-demand imbalances, increasingly limit the potential for reflation and, ultimately, corporate profits. “Reviving domestic demand is essential to achieve sustained long-term growth, but it will still take time to redirect the economy toward higher consumption levels. For now, economic policy remains focused on an investment- and trade-driven growth model, with an emphasis on developing a modern industrial system and achieving technological self-sufficiency. In this context, investors should pay close attention to those areas that benefit from this policy direction and from technological innovation,” concludes Bigos.

The Challenges of Omnibus Accounts in AML Matters: The Strength of Their Chain

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

Omnibus accounts are one of the central tools in fund distribution, but also a key element when it comes to money laundering. Their main advantage is that they are accounts opened in the name of a financial institution in which the investments of multiple clients are pooled. And although the positions are jointly recorded, the financial institution that holds the omnibus account maintains at all times an individualized internal record that allows the identification of which investments belong to each investor.

This structure explains their relevance for international fund managers. “This system facilitates operations in certain products and markets and is especially common when investing in foreign markets, where institutions usually operate through sub-custodians,” says Maite Álvarez, Director of Financial Regulation at finReg360.

Álvarez acknowledges that there are also drawbacks: “There may be temporary limitations in the availability of financial instruments or in the exercise of the rights associated with them. For this reason, it is essential that investors know whether their investments are channeled through this type of account and are aware of the risks involved.”

However, the balance is clear for asset managers: these types of accounts simplify administrative management and are highly operationally efficient. “For both reasons, the trend we see among managers is to continue using them, while also working to provide these accounts with greater traceability and cooperation among the various actors in the chain. The goal is to combine commercial efficiency with effective control of money laundering risk,” states José Antonio Tuero, Partner of Criminal and Compliance Law at Andersen.

The Chain Links

When it comes to anti-money laundering (AML), the debate centers on who should be responsible for these obligations when distributing third-party funds through these accounts. According to Tuero, there should be no issues because “each part of this chain has a defined area of responsibility for which it is accountable.”

He acknowledges that this may create the impression of diluted responsibility, but insists that the key is for each link to fulfill its own AML obligations: “It is important to remember that we are talking about responsibilities and duties that cannot be contractually transferred to a third party. If we had to identify the most sensitive part of this chain, we could say it is the last link, the one directly in contact with the end client.”

So, how does it work and who conducts due diligence? According to Martín Litwak, CEO of Untitled Collection, we are dealing with an omnibus account opened at any regulated institution, broker, investment fund, etc., where the account holder is the intermediary. “It is important to note that for many years, large global investment managers have used this system for investment accounts, which generally carry a low regulatory risk profile. The problem now is that they are starting to be seen in commercial or transactional accounts,” he clarifies.

Regarding due diligence, he adds: “In theory, it should be the same, but instead of falling on the bank where the omnibus account is held, which will perform its due diligence, but more lightly, since its client is a regulated entity, it falls on the intermediaries, who generally have fewer resources.”

Although this may seem like a “weak link” in the chain, the regulations are clear and increasingly converging. According to Pilar Galán, Partner in Charge of the Asset Management Sector at KPMG Spain, “In the distribution and marketing of investment funds, AML/CFT responsibility lies primarily with the entity that maintains the direct relationship with the end investor. This intermediary, usually the distributor, is responsible for fulfilling identification, verification, and monitoring obligations.”

Galán clarifies that in omnibus models, where the manager only sees a platform as the account holder and not each individual investor, AML obligations toward the investor still fall on the distributor. “The manager performs due diligence on the platform as an institutional client but does not identify the investors behind the intermediary,” she adds. Álvarez also points out that, since the manager lacks individualized client information, the AML obligations fall to the distributing entity, which knows and directly interacts with the investor.

This means that the fund manager typically does not perform KYC on the end investor when the fund is distributed through third parties. However, the manager still has AML/CFT responsibilities. “These focus on managing the laundering risk associated with the fund vehicle itself, defining internal policies and controls, and properly supervising the network of distributors involved in marketing. To do this, the manager must conduct periodic due diligence on these intermediaries and ensure they are correctly applying due diligence measures. Only if the manager sells the fund directly to the investor does it assume onboarding and KYC of the final client,” adds Galán.

In Litwak’s view, the conclusion is clear: “There is often a perception that offshore or cross-border alternatives are chosen to hide, but generally they are selected for their simplicity, flexibility, and legal certainty. History, especially recent history, has shown that financial crimes occur onshore, not offshore.”

Regulation, Supervision, and New Frontiers
According to these experts, it is true that regulators are increasingly concerned about the lack of transparency in certain fund distribution structures, especially when multiple intermediaries are involved and omnibus accounts are used, as these structures can make it difficult to identify the end investor and obscure the origin of funds. In fact, regulators such as the SEC have intensified oversight of transactions carried out through omnibus accounts, particularly those involving foreign intermediaries.

“They are also increasingly worried about insufficient oversight that some managers exercise over distributors and platforms, even though these intermediaries are the ones actually conducting KYC and investor monitoring. The growing complexity of platforms and structures has raised supervisory expectations, which now require stronger controls and greater clarity on who is responsible for what in the distribution chain,” says Galán. In this regard, regulators are focusing on international custody chains and the need to improve ultimate beneficiary traceability, especially in omnibus structures. “They aim to prevent the distance between investor, distributor, platform, and manager from creating AML/CFT responsibility gaps,” she notes.

According to Maite Álvarez, “we anticipate a general tightening of governance and control requirements when financial institutions rely on third parties for client services. In light of this, financial institutions may in the future have to apply enhanced selection, due diligence, and ongoing supervision processes to sub-custodians or management companies, that is, to the entities where omnibus accounts are opened.”

As Tuero recalls, there is no fully unified international legislation, but there is a clear convergence in regulatory criteria. In his opinion, the next major frontier in AML lies in the field of cryptoassets. “In Europe, the requirements focus on eliminating effective anonymity in transactions through the regulation of service providers and the traceability of movements, which in practice represents a very significant shift from the original spirit in which these assets were created,” he concludes.

CaixaBank Studies Entering Miami to Serve the Wealth Management Segment

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

Photo courtesyGonzalo Gortázar, CEO of CaixaBank

As Part of the Presentation of Its Annual Results, Gonzalo Gortázar, CEO of CaixaBank, Was Asked About the Institution’s Intentions to Grow Outside Spain, Specifically Regarding the Possibility of Opening a Branch in Miami to Serve the Wealth Management Segment. According to What He Acknowledged, For Now, the Institution Is Analyzing It, but Has Not Yet Made a Decision.

“We Have Not Made Any Decision, and It Would Not Be Anything Significant. We Are Not in a Program of Making Acquisitions and Large Investments Abroad. The Only Thing It Would Be, in Any Case, Is to Accompany Our Private Banking Clients; but It Is Not Something That Has Financial or Material Relevance for the Group,” He Clarified in This Regard.

However, He Did Affirm That the Private Banking Business, Which the Institution Refers to as Wealth Management, Is Strategic and Very Important for CaixaBank. “We Have Many Years of Growth and Innovation, Including Our Opening of a Bank in Luxembourg, Which Is Going Very Well, Where We Now Have 5 Billion Euros, and Which Celebrated Its Five-Year Anniversary in 2025. It Celebrated, Last Year, Its Five Years of Existence. Miami Would Represent an Addition to That Strategy, if We Ultimately Decide That It Adds Value to Our Current Business,” He Stated.

According to Gortázar, There Is Currently a Business Opportunity for Private Banking Institutions: “Evidently, There Is a Flow of Immigration and of People From Latin America to Spain at All Levels, Including High-Net-Worth Individuals. How to Provide Them With the Best Service Is the Only Question We Are Reflecting On. But That Will Not Result in Any Material Investment That Moves the Needle.”

Wealth Management Segment

Currently, CaixaBank’s Wealth Management Business Has an International Presence Mainly Structured From Luxembourg, Where It Has a Specialized Bank (CaixaBank Wealth Management Luxembourg) to Serve Clients With Wealth Management and Investment Needs in an International Financial Environment. In Addition, at the Group Level, Its Presence Outside Spain Is Especially Reinforced in Portugal Through Banco BPI, Which Also Serves High-Net-Worth Clients With Its Local Private Banking/Wealth Offering.

Insigneo Adds Renato Bisconcini and Renato Rizzatti to Its Team as Managing Directors

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

Insigneo, an international firm specialized in wealth management, has welcomed Renato Bisconcini and Renato Rizzatti to its team. Both join as Managing Directors and investment professionals to expand coverage in Brazil. According to the firm, the team comes from BTG Pactual and brings experience in managing sophisticated portfolios for ultra-high-net-worth and high-net-worth clients in Brazil.

Before their time at BTG Pactual, Bisconcini and Rizzatti held key positions at Morgan Stanley, where they built a strong reputation for delivering tailored financial strategies to Brazilian families and institutional investors. Their decision to join Insigneo reinforces the firm’s commitment to attracting top-tier talent and expanding in Latin America.

“We are thrilled to welcome Renato Bisconcini and Renato Rizzatti to the Insigneo family. Their deep knowledge of the Brazilian market and proven track record are invaluable. These two professionals represent the high caliber of advisors we strive to work with, and their addition strengthens our position as the leading platform for international wealth management,” said Alfredo J. Maldonado, Managing Director and Head of Market for the Northeast Region.

By joining Insigneo, the team will leverage the firm’s open architecture platform and technology to offer clients a wide range of global investment solutions tailored to their evolving needs. Their addition to the Insigneo network represents a strategic step, strengthening its wealth management capabilities with top industry talent across Latin America.

“We are excited to join Insigneo. The firm’s entrepreneurial structure, open architecture platform, and tech-driven infrastructure expand what we can offer, more options, greater customization, and a smoother client experience. Insigneo will allow us to move faster, tailor solutions more precisely, and maintain a client-centered approach across market cycles,” said Bisconcini and Rizzatti in a joint statement.

Disinflationary Growth Momentum Underway

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

The start of 2026 confirms the resilience of the economic cycle despite geopolitical noise (Greenland, Iran, Venezuela) and political uncertainty (Fed independence, ICE, and a potential shutdown).

Rather than weakening, the baseline scenario is solidifying into a disinflationary expansion, closely resembling the 1995–1999 period. The delayed transmission of the Fed’s three rate cuts in Q4 2025 is beginning to show, just as the fiscal impulse (OBBBA, stimulus checks, tax refunds, and fiscal measures in Japan and Germany) shifts from being a drag to becoming a tailwind for cyclical activity.

Monetary policy: Powell relies on price dynamics

The Fed’s first meeting of 2026 was widely anticipated by markets. Powell delivered a more constructive outlook on growth and the labor market. While his assessment could be read as slightly hawkish, the overall tone was dovish. The focus of his remarks shifted from labor market conditions to price dynamics.

Powell indicated that the recent inflation overshoot is largely due to tariffs, which added up to half a percentage point to the cost of living. Without them, core PCE would already be just above 2%.

The message was clear: the bias is toward future rate cuts, although the bar for action remains high. Current conditions support holding rates steady for now, with markets no longer expecting a cut before June.

Fed succession: risk of a hawkish shift

On Friday, Kevin Warsh was named as Powell’s successor. A former Fed governor (2006–2011), Warsh is known for his critical stance on expansionary monetary policy. He has opposed QE programs beyond the initial post-subprime round, arguing that they distort markets, fuel inflation, and politicize the Fed.

His conservative approach and preference for orthodox monetary policy—emphasizing price discipline, a leaner balance sheet, and limited intervention—have raised concerns among investors. He has even questioned recent decisions such as the 50 basis point cut in September, which he views as politically motivated. His appointment could strain the current balance between growth and financial stability and may strengthen the dollar.

Inflation, productivity, and dollar dynamics

The disinflationary trend continues. Productivity growth is outpacing GDP, easing wage pressures. Oil prices are supportive, and rents are moderating, while the impact of tariffs on the CPI is expected to fade in the coming months.

Despite this favorable macroeconomic backdrop, the recent decline in the dollar, coinciding with a rally in real assets such as gold, silver, and copper, appears to reflect a narrative of eroding monetary credibility rather than underlying fundamentals.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly defended a “strong dollar” policy, which helped stabilize the EUR/USD exchange rate after a technical oversold condition. However, the interest rate differential between the United States and the Eurozone suggests that a political risk premium is weighing on the pair, bringing it closer to April 2025 levels.

Earnings and Market Sentiment: Software in the Spotlight

The earnings season for the software sector reveals a technical capitulation. Companies like MSFT, NOW, and SAP have seen significant declines—not due to poor results, but rather their inability to justify previously high valuations. Adding to the pressure are concerns that AI solutions such as Anthropic Cowork could disintermediate major SaaS providers, threatening the traditional per-user licensing model.

The sector is clearly oversold. However, sentiment and technical damage will take time to recover. Key indicators to watch include upcoming data on Net Revenue Retention (NRR), cRPO, and company guidance. The market is looking for signs that renewals and workflow organization continue to hold up, and that AI has not yet had a structurally negative impact. Workday’s earnings on February 25 could be the catalyst to shift this narrative.

Circularity in the AI Ecosystem: Are Funding Rounds Inflated?

Another source of concern comes from the funding side. Reports of a potential $100 billion round for OpenAI, allegedly backed by its own partners (Nvidia, Amazon), have reignited fears over excessive circularity in the AI ecosystem. The perception that capital circulates within a closed loop of beneficiaries undermines the credibility of projected growth models.

AI Investment: Persistence and Barriers

Despite these concerns, AI investment shows no signs of slowing. The focus has shifted toward closed models with access to user data and reasoning capabilities—elements that could create durable barriers to entry.

While the market now demands tangible results, the disruptive potential and monetization opportunities continue to justify capital deployment. In 2026, AI-related CapEx will remain a key driver of corporate growth.

In conclusion, despite volatility and political risks, the macroeconomic backdrop remains constructive. The combination of robust growth, disinflation, and monetary prudence supports risk exposure. However, sector rotation, the evolving AI narrative, and the interpretation of post-Powell monetary policy will be critical to tactical portfolio construction in the first half of 2026. In the short term, there are also technical signals worth monitoring closely.

Global Assets in Active ETFs Approach $2 Trillion

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

Insigneo nuevos managing directors — Canva

Global assets in actively managed ETFs reached a new all-time high of $1.92 trillion at the end of December, surpassing the previous record of $1.86 trillion set in November 2025. This means that, in 2025, assets grew by 64.5%, rising from $1.17 trillion at the end of 2024 to $1.92 trillion.

According to ETFGI’s analysis of the data, “during December, the global actively managed ETF industry recorded net inflows of $56.23 billion, bringing total net inflows for 2025 to a record $637.47 billion.” This flow activity was driven by globally listed, actively managed equity ETFs, which saw net inflows of $33.31 billion. “This brought total inflows for the year to $361.33 billion, significantly higher than the $211.34 billion accumulated in 2024,” they noted.

Actively managed fixed income ETFs also saw strong demand, with $18.56 billion in inflows in December and $237.93 billion year-to-date, well above the $139.69 billion recorded in 2024.

They note that “the substantial inflows can be attributed to the 20 top active ETFs by new net assets, which collectively gathered $15.89 billion during December.” Specifically, the JPMorgan Active Bond ETF (JBND US) attracted $1.19 billion, marking the largest individual net inflow.

Why Monitor the Impact of Japan’s Early Election

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

In the past twelve months, Japan has been responsible for some market volatility, something we are not accustomed to. A sign of this has been the recent sharp bond sell-off, which drove yields to record levels and attracted media attention. The combination of a weak yen, the rebound in long-term yields, the fiscal challenges that need to be addressed, and the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy normalization process are part of the elements behind these movements.

To this is added the fact that, over the weekend, the country will hold early elections, which were called earlier this year by Sanae Takaishi, Prime Minister and leader of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan (LDP).

“This move by Takaishi aims to assert control over her own party and coalition, in order to implement her multi-year reflation strategy. The markets rightly fear that giving her more political capital means more fiscal deficits and inflationary pressures, hence the massive sell-off in the bond market and the jump in stocks. The yen reflects the fear that the Bank of Japan may be hindered by the executive from normalizing real interest rates quickly enough to contain inflationary pressures,” explains Raphael Gallardo, Chief Economist at Carmignac.

For now, the current expansive fiscal policy and uncertainty on the political front highlight the structural obstacles the country is facing, including negative real yields and an already high level of debt.

“The new prime minister wants to take advantage of her very high current popularity rating to win seats for the Liberal Democratic Party and regain control of the Lower House against a Democratic Party for the People, the opposition party, which is unprepared,” adds Martin Schulz, Head of the International Equity Group at Federated Hermes.

Moreover, stocks reacted positively, boosting the “Takaichi Trade,” which includes the aerospace and defense, nuclear, cyber, and domestic exposure sectors.

“Although we have observed some yen depreciation, the restrictions on Chinese exports and the increase in inflationary pressures could negatively affect the confidence of Japanese households and businesses in the short term, so ensuring internal political unity in the long term could help Japan’s negotiating position internationally, especially with the upcoming summit between Japan and the United States. Among the risks we are observing are internal political gridlock and a further unwanted depreciation of the yen,” notes Schulz.

Implication for the Markets

To understand why this weekend’s Japanese election is important, it is necessary to reflect on the role Japan plays in the markets. First, after several decades, it seems to be breaking out of economic stagnation.
“Japanese equity valuations have been particularly affected by the persistent reflation scenario. In these environments, the relationship between interest rates and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios tends to invert. This has caused the P/E ratios of Japanese companies to barely exceed 17 times over the past twenty years, compared to the nearly 20-times average over rolling 10-year periods recorded by U.S. equities,” explains Noriko Chen, Portfolio Manager at Capital Group.

Secondly, it should be remembered that Japan plays a significant role as a “major financier” in recent years through the large carry trade that many have taken advantage of as a technical strategy, and upon which much of today’s leverage has been built.

“By keeping interest rates at zero or even negative levels, the Bank of Japan allowed a large amount of trillions of dollars to flow into risk assets around the world, especially the United States. Today, that cycle appears to be ending with the normalization of monetary policy, which is forcing the unwinding of massive positions,” states Laura Torres, Chief Investment Officer at IMB Capital Quants.

In view of the early elections this weekend, Ray Sharma-Ong, Deputy Global Head of Bespoke Multi-Asset Solutions at Aberdeen Investments, explains that if the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) were to secure a majority and move forward with its fiscal agenda, several macroeconomic repercussions could be expected in the markets.

“Growth and aggregate demand will increase, driven by considerable fiscal stimulus and targeted investment in strategic sectors such as defense and energy. In addition, inflation expectations and Japanese government bond yields will rise, reflecting the market’s anticipation of a larger fiscal deficit, increased public spending, and greater uncertainty regarding the long-term fiscal path. And finally, the Japanese yen will weaken, as markets price in a weaker fiscal position, a larger fiscal deficit, and the possibility of a slower consolidation of public finances,” argues Sharma-Ong.

Historic Silver Rally: From Structural Factors to Political Decisions

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

Grey Capital acuerdo estrategico Peru — Canva

Although all eyes are on the record highs gold is setting, the truth is that another precious metal is experiencing a true rally: silver. It posted a spectacular year-end surge that has continued into the early weeks of 2026. In fact, in 2025, the metal appreciated by nearly 150%, clearly outperforming gold.

So far, gold’s current bullish trend has been supported by falling real interest rates, a weaker dollar, and market concern over the implications of rising U.S. public debt levels, the cost of servicing that debt, and the impact on U.S. Treasury bonds. But what factors are driving silver’s performance?

According to Claudio Wewel, currency strategist at J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable AM, the silver market has recorded a structural supply deficit for five consecutive years. “However, this imbalance hadn’t triggered a significant price reaction until 2025, when the uptrend accelerated and took on a virtually parabolic pattern toward the end of the year,” he notes. Wewel attributes this sharp upward movement, which even surpassed the absolute price increases seen ahead of the peaks in 1980 and 2011, to the combination of several factors:

Decline in U.S. interest rate expectations: In the second half of 2025, the market began to focus on the appointment of a successor to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. “The expectation of a more accommodative Fed, which could implement several rate cuts in 2026, has weakened the U.S. dollar and increased the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets such as silver and gold,” he notes.
Inclusion on the U.S. critical minerals list: In early November 2025, the U.S. Department of the Interior added silver to its list of critical minerals. Thanks to its high electrical conductivity, this material is essential for manufacturing high-performance chips and for the development of infrastructure linked to artificial intelligence. Its inclusion on the list, along with fears of potential U.S. tariffs on silver, alerted the market to potential supply risks and prompted an advance in silver shipments to the U.S. As a result, the London market recorded physical outflows of the metal, reducing local reserves.
Chinese export restrictions: Since the beginning of the year, China has implemented stricter controls on silver exports. This decision is part of a broader strategy to secure access to critical minerals and limits silver exports during 2026 and 2027 exclusively to government-approved companies.
Growing relevance as a store of value: Finally, silver is gaining prominence as a monetary metal. Compared to other commodities, its storage cost is low, and it has a long historical track record as a key material in coinage. The high per-unit cost of physical gold purchases is excluding many low- and middle-income buyers in emerging markets, positioning silver as a more “affordable” alternative to gold in these countries. As a result, household demand has increased in India and China. In Shanghai, buyers are paying a premium of around $10 per ounce over the London market price.

“The sharp surge in the price of silver has brought the gold/silver ratio to around 50. Given that this indicator fell to levels near 40 in previous bullish cycles, silver could significantly surpass $100 per ounce in the current cycle. In principle, our positive view on gold supports this scenario, and speculative positions do not appear excessive,” states Wewel.

However, he warns that although the physical supply deficit should keep silver prices elevated in the short term, the metal tends to experience much deeper corrections than gold after a prolonged rally due to its higher volatility. “Since momentum is losing strength, the risk-return balance now seems less attractive for silver. This also implies that, from these levels, it should be difficult for silver to continue outperforming gold,” he concludes.