Photo courtesyFrank Groven, Head of Global Financial Institutions at Robeco; and Amr Albialy, Head of Institutional Sales for EMEA and North America at Robeco
Robeco has appointed Amr Albialy as Head of Institutional Sales for EMEA and North America, and Frank Groven as Head of Global Financial Institutions, a new role within Robeco’s Wholesale division. These two senior appointments within the sales and marketing team will be effective as of April 1, 2026. Both reflect the strength of internal talent and reinforce the company’s commitment to long-term commercial growth in key global markets.
Amr Albialy has served as interim Head of Institutional Sales for EMEA and North America since September 2025. Based in Dubai, he will continue to lead the sales business in the Middle East and Central Asia. He joined Robeco in 2011 as Head of Sales for the Middle East business and later became Regional Head of Institutional Sales for the Middle East and Central Asia. Over the past 15 years, he has been instrumental in expanding Robeco’s institutional presence in the region, delivering strong commercial performance, driving growth, and building long-standing strategic partnerships with clients.
Frank Groven has been appointed Head of Global Financial Institutions. He will be responsible for leading and expanding Robeco’s commercial relationships with global financial institutions, accelerating the development of the firm’s global wholesale distribution strategy. Groven previously served as Head of Wholesale for Belgium and Luxembourg (BeLux) and has been with Robeco for more than 18 years, initially joining as a Fixed Income Client Portfolio Manager. Since 2012, he has led commercial development in the BeLux region. To ensure continuity in BeLux, Erik van de Weele, currently Sales Manager BeLux, will assume Frank Groven’s responsibilities as interim head of the region.
Ivo Frielink, Global Head of Sales and Marketing at Robeco, stated that he is pleased “to strengthen our sales team with these senior roles filled by trusted colleagues from within our own organization. Both bring extensive experience, proven commercial strength, and a strong commitment to our clients, our colleagues, and our strategy. Their appointments ensure continuity in our leadership and reinforce our ability to execute long-term commercial objectives. I look forward to working together as we continue building on Robeco’s growth ambitions.”
Do you remember what you were doing exactly a year ago? Most likely, you were glued to your Bloomberg terminal or responding to calls and emails from your clients while the S&P 500 index plunged by as much as 18.7% from its peak in February. Yes, it has already been a year since ‘Liberation Day,’ and the image that has gone down in history is that of Donald Trump holding an enormous board listing each of the tariffs that the U.S. was going to apply to countries with which it maintained a large trade deficit—though not exclusively.
For the markets, this staging had another meaning: the return of volatility and uncertainty that continue today, now driven by geopolitics and oil. As Mauro Valle, head of fixed income at Generali AM (part of Generali Investments), points out when taking stock of this first year of a new normal in U.S. trade policy, the most relevant aspect is the changes in the market that have occurred since Liberation Day.
“President Trump’s protectionist policy had two consequences in the months following the announcement of the tariffs. The first was in the bond market, where the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose sharply. The second, which still largely persists, was a weaker dollar against currencies such as the euro. In fact, the dollar has depreciated in recent months due to other factors such as twin deficits, geopolitics, and the fragmentation of global capital flows. However, in these recent phases of acute risk aversion, it can still strengthen tactically, reflecting its liquidity function. It remains to be seen whether, after this crisis, the dollar will continue to be perceived as a safe-haven asset or not,” explains Valle.
Market Performance
The surprise has been that, despite the initial impact, the balance of the past year shows a different message: emerging markets defied expectations and led the gains in global stock markets one year after the announcement of the Liberation Day tariffs. According to data analyzed by Aberdeen Investments, which focuses on comparing percentage changes to assess how markets have performed across six major global markets between the market close on April 2, 2025, and one year later, on March 27, 2026, overall, most major indices experienced positive dynamics, with emerging markets at the forefront.
According to the asset manager, global stock markets recorded strong gains over the period, but the MSCI Emerging Markets index had the best performance, with a rise of 26%, followed by the FTSE 100, with 16%, and the FTSE World, with 14.1%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 posted an increase of 9.6%, while the Dow Jones and the DAX recorded more modest gains of 4.4% and 3.1%, respectively.
“During the past year, investors have had to make sense of a great deal of noise and uncertainty, in addition to the human impact of global events. Although we would never want to draw major conclusions from a single year of market data, our analysis is interesting, and this period has served to remind us that headlines do not always tell the whole story. Even at a time when markets and geopolitics seem more entangled than ever, the figures can sometimes point to something different. Our main recommendation has been to encourage investors to diversify their equity allocations and, in that sense, it is encouraging to see that markets outside the United States are leading the way at a time of great uncertainty,” notes Ben Ritchie, Head of Developed Markets Equities at Aberdeen Investments, in light of these conclusions.
Economic Resilience
In the opinion of Jon Butcher, Senior U.S. Economist at Aberdeen, one year after “Liberation Day,” the U.S. economy has demonstrated resilience despite a clear cooling of the labor market. “Hiring slowed sharply in the months following the announcement of the tariffs, as companies assessed rising costs and policy uncertainty. Even so, growth held up better than expected, as households continued to spend and business investment accelerated. Tariffs did boost inflation, but the impact has been slower and smaller than the market initially feared,” says Butcher.
In addition, it is noteworthy that trade in 2025 did not contract, despite gloomy forecasts. “Both U.S. imports and Chinese exports reached new highs. Southeast Asia deepened its role in global manufacturing, India gained ground in selected sectors, and Brazil expanded commodity exports to China. Overall, trade grew faster than the global economy, while advanced economies and China reoriented away from geopolitically distant trading partners,” notes the McKinsey Global Institute in its latest report.
However, according to the think tank of McKinsey & Company in its report, tariffs triggered a reshaping of trade, with trade between the U.S. and China falling by around 30%. “The United States replaced approximately two-thirds of that gap with imports from other suppliers, while Chinese exporters of consumer goods, from electric cars to toys, cut prices by an average of 8% to find buyers in new markets. ASEAN prospered, increasing trade with both economies, but the European Union faced a double pressure: more Chinese imports and higher U.S. tariffs,” they add.
Lessons Learned
This episode leaves several lessons learned. First, according to the McKinsey Global Institute, changes in trade point to some lasting trends and, consequently, to the need for resilience in the face of shocks. “AI, the growth of emerging markets, and the evolution of China’s manufacturing approach are not temporary phenomena, nor is the growing role of geopolitics in reshaping trade, a shift that has been evident in the data for nearly a decade. Short-term developments also require a response. Tariff changes in 2025 were abrupt, and 2026 has already brought its own shocks. Companies need a long-term vision combined with agility,” they note.
Second, the Aberdeen economist warns that the political landscape has become even more uncertain: “The Supreme Court ruling on the IEEPA has cast doubt on the future of the tariff regime, and efforts to rebuild parts of it through other policy tools have left companies unsure about what the long-term rules of the game will be. For markets, the greatest risk is the growing perception among global investors that the United States is becoming a less reliable destination for capital. Concerns have increased about political volatility, central bank independence, and fiscal pressure. And although attention has shifted toward the Iran crisis and energy prices, tariffs remain a critical unresolved factor shaping how international capital perceives the United States.”
Finally, Capital Group reminds us that when markets are volatile, it is difficult to resist the temptation to do something, but they recommend staying the course. “What is the lesson of ‘Liberation Day’? Market downturns can be painful, but rather than trying to time when to enter or exit the market, the most sensible approach for investors is to stay the course. To weather market volatility, they should seek diversification across equities and bonds, while periodically assessing their risk tolerance in the face of elevated volatility. Although it may seem that this time is different, markets have proven resilient throughout history when faced with wars, pandemics, and other crises,” they insist.
Political swings recorded especially in Latin America so far this century have deepened the phenomenon of wealth migration, the outflow of capital, wealth, and individuals seeking greater stability and certainty for their fortunes, their families, and themselves.
This wealth migration, in turn, is driving a kind of “reconquest” of places and cities where wealthy migrants settle and create hubs of wealth and ultra-wealth, particularly in several of the most important cities in the United States and even in Europe.
“The phenomenon of wealth migration is not new, but it has intensified in recent years, not only in Mexico but across Latin America; with the rise of left-wing governments in the region, a certain degree of legal and financial uncertainty has emerged, intensifying the migration of wealth in search of security,” explains Juan Carlos Eguiarte, Country Manager of BAI Capital Financial in Mexico, a boutique real estate developer based in Florida, USA.
Which are these hubs of wealth and ultra-wealth driven by wealth migration? Here is a review of some of the most notable in recent years, which are not necessarily the only ones.
Key Biscayne, the “Spain of America”
Key Biscayne, a locality located southeast of Miami, Florida, is fully consolidated as one of the most exclusive and sought-after residential enclaves, home to wealthy families, celebrities, and senior executives, with a strong presence of Latin Americans and, above all, Spaniards—so much so that some affectionately call it “Key Spain.”
Real estate managers in that region know what wealthy migrants are looking for and offer it to their clients; the proposition to make them “land” there is simple: a “country club” lifestyle, maximum security, privacy, and natural beauty, all close to the vibrant urban life of Brickell and Miami Beach.
Key Biscayne, or “Key Spain,” offers luxury beachfront condominiums and private mansions, with prices reflecting high demand and limited land availability. In addition, the majority of the population in Miami-Dade County is Hispanic (69.1%), which facilitates the cultural integration of newcomers. But beyond that, the range of figures related to this hub of wealth and ultra-wealth in the United States linked to Spain and Latin America leaves no doubt about what wealth migration has generated in this location.
Key Biscayne is one of the communities with the highest concentration of foreign-born residents; the total Hispanic population represents 70.3% of inhabitants (approximately 10,400 people), and it is estimated that 58.1% of the current population was born outside the United States, according to 2025 figures from Data USA.
This region concentrates one of the highest per capita wealth densities in Florida. The median household income stands at $181,505 (more than double the U.S. national average); likewise, the average household income is $309,291 (this figure is higher due to the concentration of ultra-wealthy families).
Regarding wealth distribution, it is estimated that 48% of households in Key Biscayne have incomes above $200,000 per year, while per capita income is estimated at $106,219 (valued for 2024). All figures are from the U.S. Census Bureau, as of the end of 2025.
But the narrative of a “safe haven for capital” is supported by the fact that these groups not only live there, but also use the island to dollarize and protect their wealth. Data from the MIAMI Association of Realtors (2025–2026 reports) indicate that international buyers (led by Latin Americans) acquired 49% of all new luxury units in South Florida up to June 2025.
In addition, 68% of Latin American investors in the area pay for their properties entirely in cash, evidence of their very high liquidity and their intention to protect savings from instability in their countries of origin. And they are not there just for fashion or short stays; 91% of buyers in this region acquire properties in Miami and its islands for investment or second-home purposes.
But not only in Key Biscayne—Florida has other attractive locations for wealthy Latin Americans migrating in search of security and certainty.
Weston, Florida (“Westonzuela,” the South American hub)
Located in Broward County, near Fort Lauderdale, Weston is considered one of the cities with the highest quality of life in the United States and has become the epicenter of wealth migration for Venezuelans, Colombians, and Argentinians—essentially South America as a whole. Surprisingly, Weston is considered one of the most Hispanic cities in the country; 56.8% of its residents are Latino. The concentration of Venezuelans is so high that it is informally known as “Westonzuela” (Venezuela).
Weston attracts highly educated professionals and business owners; it is estimated that more than 53% of its residents are foreign-born, many of whom arrived with capital to invest in franchises and real estate. This small U.S. territory represents the success of the upper-middle and upper classes of South America, who seek a perfect suburban environment (A-rated schools, total security, and parks) without losing their Latin cultural connection.
Miami, a magnet for Latin American capital
Wealth migration has turned Miami into a kind of “magnet” for Latin American capital, with several additional examples. Doral is a hub where wealth migration translates directly into commercial and logistics activity, unlike Key Biscayne, which is more residential and leisure-oriented. Nearly 80% of its population is of Hispanic origin, and it has the highest concentration of Venezuelans per capita in the United States.
The flow of wealth into private banking offices in Miami (which serves Doral) grew by 10% annually from Mexico, Argentina, Chile, and Peru, seeking security amid political instability. Doral hosts more than 150 corporate headquarters and thousands of small and medium-sized enterprises founded by wealth migrants who have replicated their successful Latin American business models on U.S. soil.
It is a key logistics hub; its proximity to Miami International Airport allows Latin capital to control a large share of import/export trade with the region. Brickell (Miami) is, in turn, the financial district that has received a massive influx of “technolatinas” (startups valued in the millions) and investment bankers from the region.
Meanwhile, Coral Gables is considered the historic refuge of Central American and Spanish industrial families, characterized by Mediterranean architecture and one of the highest concentrations of consulates and multinational companies from Latin America.
One thing is clear: the wealth of Latin American and Spanish families does not arrive in the United States in a passive form (savings), but is highly active, accounting for 49% of new luxury developments in the region by mid-2025. But in the southern United States, and across the Atlantic, there are more examples of what capital can achieve when it has certainty and security.
The Woodlands (Texas), the refuge of the Mexican elite
Located north of Houston, The Woodlands has become a residential refuge and a luxury “oasis” for thousands of high-net-worth Mexican families, entrepreneurs, and politicians seeking security, certainty, and quality of life. But The Woodlands is not just a suburb; what wealthy and ultra-wealthy Latin Americans—especially Mexicans—have built here is an entire financial and security ecosystem designed for the transfer of large amounts of capital from Mexico (mainly Mexico City, Monterrey, and Puebla).
Unlike other migration waves, in this case the migration is purely wealth- and business-driven. It is estimated that more than 10,000 high- and ultra-high-net-worth Mexicans live in The Woodlands; the boom was driven by peaks of insecurity in Mexico (2006–2012 and 2018–2024), which turned The Woodlands into a “luxury extension” of neighborhoods such as San Pedro Garza García (Monterrey; the wealthiest municipality in Latin America) or Tecamachalco (Mexico City). In fact, the presence of institutions such as The John Cooper School or The Woodlands Prep is a decisive factor. For example, tuition can exceed $30,000 per year per child.
Real estate is the main vehicle for sheltering Mexican capital in Texas. Although the average price of homes ranges from $600,000 to $800,000, in areas where wealthy and ultra-wealthy Mexicans concentrate (such as Carlton Woods), mansions range from $2.5 million to as much as $15 million.
And if all the previous figures and data were not enough, one stands out as a clear indicator of the level of wealth generated in The Woodlands thanks to Latin American wealth migration: the cost of living in The Woodlands is 12% higher than the U.S. average, driven by the luxury consumption of its residents.
Salamanca District (Madrid), wealth migration that crosses oceans
Madrid, Spain, is a magnet for Americans and Latin Americans; in this city, for the past couple of years, one has heard the quip that the Salamanca district has become the “new Miami.” This is not just a perception—data supports it. The Luxury Homes 2025 report, prepared by Colliers, states that 55% of Madrid’s high-end supply is concentrated in the Salamanca district and that Madrid attracts international investors “especially from Latin America and the United States.” According to its conclusions, Madrid has climbed the rankings to become the second most attractive European city for real estate investment, surpassed only by London.
During 2024, approximately half of the homes purchased in the Community of Madrid were located in the capital, and 7% of these corresponded to foreign investors. This phenomenon has been particularly driven by buyers from Latin America and the United States, placing Madrid among the five most profitable markets for high-end residential investment. Likewise, Madrid has positioned itself as the fourth most attractive city globally for High Net Worth Individuals (HNWIs), leading the European ranking.
Specifically, the Salamanca district has been the clearest example of this trend. According to the Madrid Insight 2025/26 report, prepared by Knight Frank, the supply of newly built prime housing in its streets has fallen by nearly 20% between 2020 and 2025, helping to explain price pressure in an area where international demand is very strong.
“The Salamanca district continues to be the epicenter of the prime market, concentrating most high-price transactions. Within the district, neighborhoods such as Castellana and Recoletos stand out, with average prices currently ranging between €13,000/m² and €15,400/m². This is where the most exclusive properties are located, along with a top-tier commercial and gastronomic offering that reinforces its position as the most prestigious area of Madrid,” the report notes. For now, no increase in new prime housing developments is expected in this district due, according to Knight Frank, to local regulations and the city’s urban style.
In a week of significant geopolitical turmoil and market volatility, UBS has presented its Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2026, in which it places current investment challenges and debates into a long-term perspective, following a historical analysis of markets since 1900. Taking into account the current context, the main conclusion of this year’s edition is that global markets have undergone a profound transformation.
“At the beginning of the 20th century, the global stock market showed a relatively balanced distribution; today, by contrast, the United States dominates global market capitalization, representing 62% of the total equity market value. This reflects strong long-term equity returns and sustained equity issuance, even as the United States’ share of global GDP has declined from its mid-century peak,” the report notes.
A significant shift can also be observed in the sectors that have dominated global markets. Of the U.S. listed companies in 1900, nearly 80% of their value was concentrated in sectors that are now small or have disappeared, such as railroads, textiles, iron, coal, and steel. Meanwhile, 70% of today’s U.S. companies come from sectors that were small or nonexistent in 1900. By contrast, technology and healthcare were virtually absent from stock markets in 1900.
According to the report, investors often associate new technologies with “bubbles” and subsequent periods of lower returns. However, as was the case with railroads, despite being a declining sector over the study period (falling from 63% of the U.S. market in 1900 to less than 1% today), they actually delivered returns higher than both the U.S. stock market and their more recent technological competitors since 1900.
Other Lessons from the Market
Another clear conclusion from the report is that “equities are the best-performing liquid asset.” Specifically, equities have outperformed bonds, bills, and inflation since 1900: an initial investment of $1 grew to $124,854 in nominal terms by the end of 2025. Long-term bonds and Treasury bills delivered lower returns, although they outpaced inflation. Their respective index levels at the end of 2025 were $284 and $69, while the inflation index ended at $38.
“This outperformance is not unique to the United States. The Yearbook shows that equities were the best-performing asset class in all 21 countries with continuous investment histories covered in the Yearbook. Meanwhile, bonds outperformed bills in every country except Portugal. This pattern supports one of the enduring laws of finance, the risk-return trade-off, and the idea that taking risk should entail an expected reward,” explain UBS.
On the other hand, it is observed that developed markets have delivered better long-term results. In fact, since 1900, developed markets have recorded higher annual equity returns (8.5%) than emerging markets (6.9%). However, the report notes that “in more recent periods, emerging markets have outperformed developed ones, with an annual return of 10.9% between 1960 and 2025, compared with 9.6% for developed markets.”
Finally, the report highlights that inflation has a key impact on long-term returns. According to its analysis, although inflation in the United States has been relatively low compared with global standards—averaging 2.9% annually since 1900—its cumulative effect is highly significant: $1 in 1900 is equivalent to approximately $38 today. “Therefore, when comparing returns over time or across countries, the focus should be on real returns adjusted for inflation. In this regard, real equity returns have significantly outpaced inflation,” the report concludes.
Photo courtesyNicholas Stockdale, Global Head of Infrastructure Credit of Santander Alternative Investments.
Santander Alternative Investments (SAI) has appointed Nicholas Stockdale as Global Head of Infrastructure Credit. Stockdale has more than 25 years of experience in infrastructure debt financing across different subsectors.
This appointment strengthens Santander Alternative Investments’ capabilities in infrastructure credit, one of the key areas within the group’s alternative investment platform. Currently, Banco Santander has more than €12 billion committed to alternative assets.
“The addition of Nicholas represents a further step in strengthening our infrastructure credit platform. His experience in structuring, investing, and raising capital across different geographies will be key to continuing to develop this strategy and to offer differentiated solutions to our clients,” explains Borja Díaz-Llanos, Chief Investment Officer at Santander Alternative Investments.
Before joining SAI, Stockdale developed his career for around a decade in senior asset management roles at Queensland Investment Corporation and Patrizia (formerly Whitehelm Capital). During this period, he led and closed multiple proprietary high-yield infrastructure debt investments across different geographies through two co-mingled debt funds and three separately managed accounts (SMAs). In addition, he was responsible for capital raising in Europe and Asia and has extensive experience in structuring debt fund platforms with one or multiple investors across different jurisdictions.
Previously, he worked for 16 years at Barclays Investment Bank, where he held various senior positions and participated in closing more than 20 infrastructure financing transactions under non-recourse or project finance structures, as well as numerous corporate transactions across the credit spectrum, including acquisition financings, bridge loans, term loans, and revolving credit facilities (RCFs). Before his time at Barclays, he spent two years in the project finance team at Edison Mission Energy, a power generation subsidiary of Edison International.
Stockdale also has experience as a board member, having served as chairman of QIC’s UK subsidiary and as a member of various fund entity boards and investment committees.
A British national, he began his professional career at PwC, where he qualified as a Chartered Accountant in 1997. He holds degrees in Chemistry and Law from the University of Exeter.
The wealth of the world’s billionaires reached an unprecedented figure in 2025: $15.8 trillion. This is highlighted in the latest report by UBS, which notes that there are now nearly 3,000 billionaires worldwide. Despite economic instability and international tensions, the value of their wealth has grown by 13% in just one year, driven mainly by strong financial markets and business innovation.
The United States has been the country that benefited the most from this growth, leading this expansion. There, billionaire wealth increased by 18%, thanks to the momentum of technology companies and the creation of new large fortunes. Asia-Pacific also experienced a positive year, while Europe grew at a more moderate pace. Overall, the global wealth map confirms that the creation of large fortunes remains highly concentrated in a few countries, as shown in the report.
Technology has once again been the main driver of growth. Fortunes linked to this sector increased by nearly 24%, driven by the rise of artificial intelligence, chips, and digital services. Companies such as Nvidia, Meta, and Oracle strengthened already established fortunes, while in China the technology sector showed signs of recovery after a period of slower momentum.
Other sectors also recorded significant gains. The industrial sector grew the fastest, with an increase of 27%, supported by the expansion of the aerospace and electric vehicle industries. Financial services grew by 17%, boosted by the stock market recovery and the rebound in digital assets, while the consumer and retail sector showed more moderate growth, affected by the slowdown in European luxury.
A notable finding of the report is the evolution of female wealth. Although women represent a minority (374 compared to 2,545 men), their average wealth grew by 8.4%, more than double that of male billionaires. Much of this female wealth is concentrated in sectors such as consumer and retail, where inheritance continues to play a decisive role, especially in Europe.
By region, in addition to the United States and China, Singapore and Germany stood out as particularly dynamic markets. Singapore increased the wealth of its billionaires by more than 66%, while Germany led growth in Western Europe. In contrast, France recorded a significant decline due to the drop in the value of large fortunes linked to the luxury sector, confirming a shift in the cycle of global wealth distribution.
At the beginning of the last century, canaries helped miners detect toxic gases that could put them in danger. This metaphor seems especially relevant today, according to those who see a warning sign in the wave of redemptions experienced by private debt funds globally. Some see risk in this industry, one of the alternative asset classes that has generated the most interest in recent years—while others view it as a temporary episode of anxiety against the backdrop of solid market fundamentals. Time will tell which side is right, but industry professionals are watching all available signals closely.
These emerging doubts around the asset class come after years of strong growth, which have left their mark on the industry’s size. Figures from the Alternative Investment Management Association (AIMA) show that the category ended last year with global AUM of more than 2.5 trillion dollars. Moreover, according to data compiled by S&P Global Ratings, 2025 saw industry fundraising reach 224.25 billion dollars worldwide.
Against this backdrop, the year so far has brought a series of major redemption announcements from large international funds such as Blackstone, Blue Owl, BlackRock, and Apollo. Does this mean the asset class is heading into a downturn? Industry participants downplay the situation, asserting that this is not a looming financial crisis, as some more alarmist voices have suggested. That said, this does not mean they see no areas of risk, especially given the dispersion and heterogeneity of the sector.
Illiquidity: nothing new under the sun
For Blue Owl, what is happening is simply a natural phenomenon tied to one of the core characteristics of alternative investments: illiquidity.
“These vehicles are designed to balance access to long-term assets with periodic liquidity windows. This trade-off—accepting limited liquidity in exchange for higher returns—is intentional and, when properly managed, allows strategies to function exactly as designed. Limited liquidity is not a flaw of the model; it is a structural feature of it,” says Felipe Manzo, Managing Director and Head of Private Wealth for Latin America at the firm, in comments to Funds Society.
In that sense, he says they do not see a systemic problem, but rather “specific situations.”
According to Manzo, the current situation stems from a gap between market sentiment and the fundamentals of the vehicles themselves. “Private credit continues to offer an attractive premium relative to public credit markets, with solid opportunities in high-quality borrowers,” he says, adding that more disciplined strategies tend to prevail in periods of volatility. “At Blue Owl, we believe we are particularly well positioned to navigate this environment, thanks to a rigorous credit analysis process and a diversified portfolio that has demonstrated resilience and solid returns across the business, not only in credit,” he notes.
At CIO Invest, a boutique specialized in alternatives, they call for a precise diagnosis of the phenomenon. This is not an industry-wide liquidity crisis, according to the firm’s team, but rather a specific tension in certain vehicles, where market sentiment is leading investors to request redemptions above established contractual limits. “That distinction is crucial,” they stress.
The role of semi-liquid vehicles
One factor that has accelerated redemption dynamics is the creation of semi-liquid funds—alternative structures designed to offer somewhat greater liquidity. Given this feature, it is not surprising that these products are seen as the spearhead that has opened the door to alternative strategies for a more retail-oriented investor base over the years.
However, despite offering more flexibility for withdrawals than traditional alternative funds, these episodes have served as a reminder that illiquid assets remain illiquid assets.
“Semi-liquid vehicles were designed with redemption limits precisely to manage this reality, but when sentiment deteriorates, investors seek to exit in volumes that far exceed those thresholds. That works as long as inflows exceed outflows, but when sentiment reverses, the system fractures,” explain sources at CIO Invest.
As such, this appears to be a localized issue, since traditional closed-ended vehicles, pure private credit platforms, and structures such as CLOs are not currently facing this dilemma.
At Blue Owl, they also highlight the role of wealth management channels in current dynamics. “The growth of private banking and wealth management channels has significantly expanded access to private markets. At the same time, this dynamic has raised the level of demand and responsibility for managers,” says Manzo.
Short-term flows
Regardless of the long-term impact, it appears that some damage has already been done. Considering that individual investors tend to be more sensitive to so-called “headline risk” than other segments—such as institutional investors—the expectation is that redemptions currently being deferred due to withdrawal limits will continue to drive outflows in the short term.
A report from Goldman Sachs Research indicates that the trend of declining sales and rising redemptions began in the last quarter of last year, driven by the prospect of lower future returns—given lower base rates, tighter spreads, and a credit event rate that has risen slightly from previously negligible levels—as well as increased media focus.
Looking ahead, the investment bank estimates that outflows will range between 45 billion and 70 billion dollars over the next two years. Even so, the firm does not expect this to trigger a wave of asset sales across the industry.
“Considering certain levels of liquidity buffers within funds (around 19% of the industry’s NAV and about 11% of total gross fund assets), the maturity profile of loans (typically between 5 and 7 years), managers’ ability to provide liquidity, the capacity to maintain quarterly redemption limits of 5%, and the ability to use leverage, we believe the need to liquidate private loans at an industry level will be limited,” Goldman Sachs noted.
Even so, from the perspective of asset managers, this phenomenon opens up a behavioral risk that was not previously on their radar. “The real risk is not that loans will default en masse, but that sustained redemptions will force asset sales at discounts, depressing NAVs and triggering further redemptions in a vicious cycle. That is the scenario that needs to be closely monitored,” conclude sources at CIO Invest.
Global investors, policymakers, and business leaders gathered in Miami during the sessions organized by the FII Institute to analyze how capital is shifting across regions, sectors, and technologies in a period marked by geopolitical and economic changes and shocks.
One of the main conclusions was the key role that Latin America is playing in the reconfiguration of global capital flows. At the center of the debate on its role are nearshoring, infrastructure, energy, and human capital as key drivers of long-term growth.
In this context, participants highlighted Latin America’s transformation into a safe haven and a growth engine, with abundant natural resources, expanding capital markets, and increasing geopolitical relevance. “This is the moment to move from fragmentation to alignment, from hesitation to action. The new Latin American order will not be defined by speeches, but by decisions, alliances, and investment,” said Richard Attias, Chairman of the Executive Committee and Acting CEO of the FII Institute.
Capital in motion
Among the most notable themes during the event were strong capital inflows into key markets such as Brazil, Latin America’s role in global food and energy security, and the need to invest in infrastructure and education to unlock long-term returns.
“We are moving away from viewing social investment as a cost and recognizing it as the foundation of economic growth, because addressing early childhood, health, education, and sanitation is what truly shapes a country’s future,” said María José Pinto González Artigas, Vice President of Ecuador.
Throughout the sessions, three messages were consistently emphasized: capital is shifting toward new geographies, including Latin America; it is increasingly focused on long-term resilience and real-economy impact; and it is moving rapidly, driven by geopolitics, technology, and energy transitions.
They also agreed that in a world where disruption is the “new normal,” capital is being repositioned. “As global leaders continue their conversations in the coming days, the focus remains the same: how to align capital with opportunity and how to turn that movement into measurable impact,” noted the FII Institute.
Energy, infrastructure, and the next investment cycle
When it comes to turning challenges into opportunities, Venezuela and the new opportunities in its technology sector took center stage. Speaking remotely, Delcy Rodríguez Gómez, Acting President of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, highlighted that the country is welcoming more than 120 energy companies from the United States, the Middle East, Asia, Africa, and Europe amid legal reforms. According to her, Venezuela’s hydrocarbons law and broader legal reforms have been designed to provide the legal certainty investors need.
Another clear area of opportunity is infrastructure. According to experts participating in a panel on the topic, discussions in this sector are focused on the challenges that energy and electricity supply constraints pose for nearshoring, as well as the rapid expansion of industrial infrastructure and data centers. Participants also highlighted the role of tourism, logistics, and cultural infrastructure in generating long-term returns.
In this regard, Manfredi Lefebvre d’Ovidio, Chairman of the World Travel & Tourism Council, emphasized the importance of Miami and investment partnerships for Latin America’s success: “Global public-private collaboration is essential for Latin America’s success, and Miami is proof of that. Most flights from Europeans traveling to Latin America pass through Miami.”
One more week, market attention remains focused on energy prices and fears of a possible stagflation. The verdict remains one of contained concern, without panic, as the conflict in Iran has increased volatility but has not severely damaged the performance of risk assets.
The macroeconomic situation is different from the one that preceded the 2022 energy crisis. In addition, the world is now 60% less dependent on oil than in the 1970s, which mitigates the structural impact.
That said, the historical threshold for real damage is clear: oil needs to more than double to trigger a recession or a bear market. In the case of WTI, that implies sustainably exceeding $140 per barrel, an outcome that is possible but not yet the base case. If energy spending were to double, it would absorb approximately 7% of U.S. disposable income, slowing consumption and weakening the Republican bloc ahead of the midterm elections.
Iran cannot win militarily, but it can keep oil prices elevated long enough to force a shift in Washington’s stance. Trump, under pressure from a largely anti-war public, the proximity of legislative elections, and an affordability crisis directly affecting his electoral base, has strong incentives to resolve the conflict quickly. Markets are pricing in a favorable outcome, but a deterioration in the situation could generate a further correction, not necessarily a bear market, but an episode uncomfortable enough to precipitate a resolution.
In recent days, we have received clear signs of a conciliatory stance from Trump, but Iran continues to play cat and mouse. The new deadline set by the U.S. president to reach a preliminary agreement expires on April 6.
Moreover, the macroeconomic similarity to the First Gulf War discourages abrupt changes in portfolio composition. In 1990–91, the U.S. economy was already losing momentum before Iraq invaded Kuwait on August 2, 1990. In 2026, the pattern is repeating: before the attacks on Iran, the economy was already feeling the impact of intermittent tariffs, weak hiring, and inflationary pressures that, although easing, had not disappeared. In fact, Greenspan had already been cutting rates for a year when Iraq invaded Kuwait, just like Powell, who had also begun easing before the Iranian conflict, reducing rates from 5.25%–5.50% to around 4.25%–4.50% between the second half of 2024 and early 2025.
The rate cuts implemented by the Fed in the second half of 2025 and the fiscal stimulus from the OBBBA plan are acting as buffers against the effects of the war on the economy. If the crisis is resolved within a reasonable timeframe, the boost to equities could be just as strong: from the lows of October 1990, the S&P 500 surged 26% in just three months, quickly recovering pre-conflict levels.
The outlook for the fixed income market points in the same direction. In 1990, Greenspan paused rate cuts when inflation expectations rose due to higher oil prices, and Treasury yields increased accordingly. However, the deterioration in the labor market and the recession forced a resumption of cuts, and by the end of that year, Treasury yields were below pre-conflict levels.
Europe: a less burdensome starting point than in 2022
Although logic suggests comparing the Iranian conflict with the 2022 energy crisis, the starting point is substantially different. When Russia invaded Ukraine, eurozone inflation was already մոտ 6%. Today, with headline inflation at 1.9% and wage growth below 2%, the ECB has insufficient justification to raise rates.
Energy prices should be treated as a temporary supply shock, not as structural inflationary pressure. Tightening monetary policy in this context would repeat Trichet’s 2011 mistake and hinder an economy already hit by gas prices, tariffs, and Germany’s manufacturing crisis. The market is pricing in 76 basis points of hikes in 2026, which may create opportunities in the short and intermediate parts of the curve.
That said, it is worth remembering that, unlike the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate, the ECB’s sole objective is to keep inflation close to 2%. If oil spikes or stabilizes above $100, the memory of Trichet’s mistake may fade among Governing Council members.
The references from the 2022 episode are clear: equities and cyclical currencies do not bottom out until energy prices peak. In the meantime, the energy sector outperforms the market, defensives outperform cyclicals, and the dollar appreciates against major currencies.
The Strait of Hormuz is also the main transit route for helium and fertilizers, among other commodities that are difficult to substitute in production processes, introducing additional risks to food inflation and the global supply chain. This uncertainty particularly penalizes more open economies, such as those in Europe.
Before the subprime crisis, 79% of S&P 500 earnings came from cyclical sectors. Now, 57% comes from growth industries, making the U.S. index more defensive.
Currency markets: dollar strength and gold to the downside
The EUR/USD has corrected since the start of the conflict, confirming that the dollar’s role as a safe-haven asset remains intact despite downgrade concerns. As long as uncertainty persists, the relative strength of the U.S. currency will remain in place. The dollar is also a trending currency, and the breakout above its 200-day moving average provides technical support for this view.
However, the appreciation has fully erased the premium the market had assigned to EUR/USD following the tariff announcements on Liberation Day, although uncertainty around Trump’s trade policy remains high. Long-term models point to a somewhat overvalued dollar, and speculative investors have already closed their short positions on the greenback. Additionally, the market has shifted from expecting fed funds to end 2026 at 3% to seeing them anchored at 3.75%. The announcement of a truce would force a rapid reassessment of these expectations.
Contrary to what might be expected from a safe-haven asset, gold has fallen 14% in the month of March. The strength of the dollar, the sharp rise in real interest rates, and technical overbought conditions explain the move. However, the proximity of a truce (which would entail a reversal of these negative forces), the structural shift toward geopolitical multipolarity, and the procyclical turn toward expansionary fiscal policies maintain gold’s appeal as a diversifying element in multi-asset portfolios.
With the support of CFA Society Miami as a partner, Funds Society is organizing the first edition of the Funds Society Leaders Summit in Miami. This is a meeting aimed at leaders in the asset and wealth management industry, created by and for the industry.
The Funds Society Leaders Summit will take place next April 21 at 10:00 am at the AKA Brickell Hotel in Miami, a sophisticated urban retreat located in the Brickell financial district, overlooking Biscayne Bay.
The event, designed in collaboration with CFA Society Miami, will feature top-level speakers and experts in key areas such as asset management, private banking, family offices, pension funds, and insurance companies, who will analyze the main challenges and trends currently shaping the industry.
The program will combine roundtable discussions with dedicated networking spaces and will conclude with a keynote session, followed by a cocktail at Casa Zeru, offering the perfect setting to exchange insights and continue expanding professional networks.
The event will include participation from panelists who are leading figures in the industry, such as Raúl Henríquez, CEO and Chairman of Insigneo Financial Group; Santiago Ulloa, Founder, Managing Partner and CIO of WE Family Offices; Jesús Valencia, Market Director – Florida International Market at UBS; and Rocío Harb, Director & Brand Manager at IPG Investment, among others.
Participating in the Funds Society Leaders Summit
The event is not only endorsed by CFA Society Miami, but also supported by Janus Henderson, M&G, Muzinich & Co, Capital Group, Fidelity, State Street Investment Management, Thornburg, and VanEck.
Places are limited, so if you have not yet registered, we encourage you to do so as soon as possible, as capacity is restricted. If you are interested, please contact this email: elena.santiso@fundssociety.com.
