BBVA Launches Independent Multi-Family Office Service for Fortunes Between 30 and 300 Million Euros

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After months of internal work, BBVA Private Banking has announced the launch of an independent multi-family office service for fortunes between 30 and 300 million euros. The initiative is led by César Solera, Head of BBVA Multi-Family Office in Spain. Aiming to become a benchmark in wealth management, the service—which is already operational and will be presented to its private banking clients—takes the form of an independent company with a value proposition backed by three pillars: an experienced team, company independence and autonomy, and technology.

The service, which was presented and launched in Spain, has a global and international scope, meaning it will be implemented in other geographies where the bank operates. Regarding the pace at which this service will be rolled out to other countries, Fernando Ruiz, Head of BBVA Private Banking, explained that “it will depend on the needs of high-net-worth clients in other markets, as well as the characteristics of this ultra-high-net-worth profile, whose requirements vary by country.”

At an operational level, they noted that the service starts with a team of 10 senior professionals, each with more than 20 years of experience. This team will grow based on client needs, operating from offices located in Madrid’s prime area, outside the orbit of standard BBVA offices.

According to Solera and Ruiz, the target audience is not its current Private Banking or Wealth Management clients—”to whom this service will also be offered”—but rather those high-net-worth individuals and business families seeking a comprehensive management proposal that operates across multiple entities, with a special focus on governance.

“These services do not compete with each other; they complement one another. It adds a layer of service and advice. We are launching this service because we believe there is sufficient demand in Spain from these high-net-worth individuals or family businesses. The service is designed to address all needs, including the growing demand from Latin American wealth profiles,” both executives commented.

Open Architecture and Independence

The multi-bank operations and open architecture model with which this service is born allow clients to consolidate wealth information regardless of the institutions they work with. This provides a unified and transparent view of their assets, offering a more precise reading of risks, costs, diversification, and investment opportunities.

Additionally, this unit provides clients with a multidisciplinary team possessing cross-functional capabilities. This close, personalized guidance integrates into the realities and objectives of each holder. With a focus on building long-term relationships, the company acts as an extension of the client, transforming into a strategic partner that guarantees continuity, trust, and generational alignment.

Furthermore, its commitment to independence shapes an advisory model geared toward providing order, strategic vision, and coordination, moving well beyond the simple selection of financial products. The goal is to help preserve and grow wealth over the long term, avoiding the loss of value caused by inflation, market volatility, or insufficient planning.

A Proposal Structured Around Four Ejes

BBVA backs this new service with its differential capabilities, such as its international footprint, technological leadership, and wealth management expertise. In this sense, the value proposition of the multi-family office is structured around four main axes that comprehensively address all dimensions of wealth using specialized tools and services.

The first is investment strategy, defining investment frameworks and guiding families in asset allocation across listed markets, private markets, and real assets. The second is wealth planning, which allows for the consolidation of all client assets to perform a comprehensive diagnosis and design a roadmap incorporating wealth structure, taxation, succession planning, and a long-term vision. This analysis will rely on tracking tools and scenario analysis, with particular attention to wealth protection and its evolution across generations.

It will also include defining real estate strategies, analyzing and managing property wealth, as well as accessing off-market opportunities, international investments, and alternative assets. This dimension is especially relevant for many families where non-financial assets represent a significant portion of their global structure.

The third axis is governance and legacy, supporting generational transition processes and preparing future heirs to assume their wealth responsibilities. The fourth is purpose and lifestyle, incorporating fields such as philanthropy, art collection management, and other specialized services linked to family legacy. The model is rounded out with other financial services, including debt and financing structuring, insurance and forecasting solutions, and coordinated access to internal and external specialists based on each client’s needs.

Competition for Deals Intensifies in the Private Credit Industry

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Con el telón de fondo de una industria cada vez más concentrada y donde los grandes negocios reinan en el ecosistema de crédito privado, la competencia por acceder a las transacciones más atractivas se está volviendo más intensa. Ese es el diagnóstico de McKinsey & Company, según un informe reciente de la consultora.

El polvo seco (dry powder) de los fondos cerrados de crédito directo terminó la primera mitad del año pasado en alrededor de 500.000 millones de dólares, cerca de sus máximos históricos. Esto, señalaron desde la firma, “subraya la escala del capital que está compitiendo por un número finito de negocios”.

A esto se suma la presión agregada de la demanda de los canales de inversores privados, reflejada en el auge de los vehículos semilíquidos de deuda privada. “Como estos vehículos levantan capital continuamente (en vez de realizar llamados de capital a medida que los necesitan), las gestoras están bajo una gran presión para desplegarlo rápido y empezar a generar rendimientos”, explicaron.

Otro ingrediente de esta dinámica es que la competencia de los bancos y el sector de préstamos sindicados a gran escala (BSL, por su sigla en inglés) también se ha vuelto más aguda. En palabras de McKinsey, las firmas financieras tradicionales están compitiendo con más fuerza no solo como facilitadores de deuda sindicada, sino a través de principios directos.

J.P. Morgan, por ejemplo, destinó 50.000 millones de dólares de su propio balance para originar deudas al estilo del crédito privado, “con el objetivo de competir directamente con gestoras no bancarias en velocidad, certeza de ejecución y tamaño”.

Además, las nuevas emisiones de BSL siguen cerca de sus niveles récord y los flujos de refinanciamiento entre ambos mercados están alcanzando la paridad, agregaron. “Aproximadamente 37.000 millones de dólares en préstamos BSL se refinanciaron en créditos directos, mientras que 34.000 millones en préstamos directos se movilizaron en la otra dirección. Esto marca un quiebre claro con años anteriores, cuando los flujos eran mayoritariamente unidireccionales, de BSL a crédito directo”, explicaron en su informe.

Con todo, la competencia más fuerte está modificando el panorama de precios y condiciones de los negocios, manteniendo un cambio a favor de los prestatarios. La señal más clara de esto, comentaron desde McKinsey, es la compresión de los spreads, que cayeron de un máximo de 716 puntos básicos (en marzo de 2023) a los 544 puntos básicos registrados a finales de 2025.

Concentración de la industria

A la par con el fenómeno observado en mercados como el private equity, el mercado de deuda privada también está avanzando hacia una mayor concentración. Y en este contexto, la escala de las gestoras importa más que nunca.

“Incluso en un mercado de levantamiento de capital más suave, los mánagers con escala siguieron recaudando vehículos de tamaño récord, lo que subraya que el capital se está concentrando en pocas manos”.

Ares Management, por ejemplo, uno de los nombres más prominentes en el mundo de la gestión de fondos alternativos, consiguió atraer 17.100 millones de libras esterlinas (alrededor de 22.640 millones de dólares) en compromisos de LPs para su sexto fondo insignia en Europa. Esta transacción marcó el vehículo cerrado de deuda privada más grande de la historia en términos de compromisos.

“Efectivamente, el levantamiento de capital para fondos cerrados de crédito privado siguió avanzando hacia la concentración en 2025”, zanjó McKinsey en su informe.

La consultora resaltó que los mayores 25 gestores concentraban alrededor del 72% del fundraising total y que las siete plataformas de crédito privado más grandes aumentaron sus activos bajo gestión (AUM) en torno a un 20% anual de 2022 a 2025, superando el crecimiento del mercado en general.

“Lo que está claro es que la escala importa considerablemente. Permite una oferta de productos más amplia, una liquidez más oportuna y carteras de activos diversificadas más grandes”, indicaron. Estas capacidades, agregaron, son difíciles de replicar por parte de las firmas de inversión más pequeñas.

University of Oxford and EBC Financial Group Renew Partnership to Boost Economic Education

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EBC Financial Group (EBC) and the University of Oxford’s Department of Economics announced the renewal of their strategic partnership for an additional three years, consolidating a collaboration aimed at expanding public access to economic knowledge and bringing academic research closer to audiences worldwide.

As part of the agreement, EBC will continue to sponsor an annual edition of the webinar series “What Economists Really Do,” an initiative by Oxford’s Department of Economics designed to bring globally relevant economic topics closer to students, researchers, alumni, and anyone interested in better understanding the challenges facing modern economies.

The renewal of this collaboration comes at a time when financial education and the understanding of economic phenomena have acquired increasing relevance for individuals, businesses, and investors. Since the beginning of the partnership, the editions sponsored by EBC have addressed topics such as tax evasion, financial literacy, and the economic impact of climate change. Each session has brought together internationally renowned specialists and academics, creating spaces for discussion on some of today’s main economic challenges.

According to figures shared by both institutions, the sessions have registered around 200 live attendees per edition, while the accumulated recordings have surpassed 3,600 views and more than 270 hours of playtime. Christopher Stiegeler, Executive Director of EBC Financial Group (Cayman) Limited, stated: “The renewal of the agreement responds to the importance of bringing reliable economic information to an increasingly broader audience.”

He also highlighted the benefits of the alliance for the University of Oxford: “In a constantly evolving global economy, access to reliable financial knowledge is more important than ever. Our collaboration with the University of Oxford’s Department of Economics reflects EBC’s commitment to education and to developing tools that help people make more informed decisions,” Christopher concluded.

In addition to this partnership, EBC has driven financial education initiatives and academic collaborations with higher education institutions in different regions of the world, including projects developed with universities in Mexico, Asia, and Latin America.

For his part, Johannes Abeler, Head of the Department of Economics at the University of Oxford, emphasized the relevance of bringing academic research closer to society: “Public outreach and education are a fundamental part of our mission. Through initiatives like What Economists Really Do, we seek to show how economics can contribute to improving public policies and to better understanding the issues shaping today’s world.” Over the next three years, both institutions will continue working to bring economic research to new audiences through educational content, specialized seminars, and outreach materials designed to facilitate the understanding of complex economic topics.

The initiative is part of EBC Financial Group’s corporate social responsibility efforts focused on lowering barriers to educational access and fostering more informed participation in topics related to economics, financial markets, and global development.

The Bet of Family Offices on Digital Assets

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New global research from Ocorian, an international provider specialized in services for high-net-worth individuals, family offices, financial institutions, asset managers, and corporates, reveals that family offices are increasingly focusing their attention on digital assets.

The study, conducted among family members, senior family office employees, and intermediaries working for family offices with total assets under management of 68.26 billion dollars, found that this is a trend that has been growing over time. More than three-quarters (78%) state that the level or value of the digital assets they hold has increased over the last five years, with 15% noting a significant increase. Approximately one in five (18%) indicates that it has remained the same, and only 3% assert that it has decreased.

The trend toward digital assets shows no signs of losing momentum. The global study reveals that nearly all (97%) family offices believe that digital assets are here to stay, compared to just 1% who hold the opposite view.

This trend is also being supported by the professionals and third parties working for family offices. Nearly all (96%) family offices state that their intermediaries are adapting to respond to this growing interest in digital asset investment. “Investment in digital assets has grown exponentially in recent years, and our research shows there are no signs of it slowing down. In addition to the forecasts from family offices themselves indicating that this trend will continue, professionals and intermediaries are adapting and shifting to ensure they offer the most innovative and comprehensive services to support family offices in their investments in crypto-assets and other digital assets,” explains Leevyn Isabel, Commercial Director – Middle East at Ocorian.

Private Banking Clients Trust AI and Protect Their Wealth Against a More Unstable World

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Private banking and wealth management clients are optimistic about the developments and implications of AI over the next five years, but at the same time, they are reorienting their portfolios toward more prudent positions in the face of rising geopolitical instability and global uncertainty.

This emerges from the conclusions of the study ‘Investing for Change: Client Strategies and Concerns’, which Deutsche Bank published based on data from a survey of its Private Bank clients conducted between March and May 2026, complemented by another somewhat shorter monthly survey of clients and non-clients. Respondents expect technological advancements within a context of continuous global and social turbulence. Notably, younger respondents (aged 25 to 40) are more pessimistic than older ones regarding issues related to geopolitics or social and environmental cohesion, while this trend reverses when it comes to artificial intelligence.

Specifically, AI, government debt and fiscal pressures, and policy-driven changes in trade patterns are perceived as the main drivers of change by 69.8%, 56.9%, and 50% of respondents, respectively; meanwhile, health security and pharmaceutical advancements ranked as the least influential topics. In fact, 77% are certain that AI will affect most aspects of business and investment. Furthermore, 70.2% believe that higher levels of defense spending will be necessary, and 49.9% are of the opinion that corporate governance must change radically to tackle all of these new global challenges.

Deutsche Bank Chart. Source: Deutsche Bank Client Survey Investment Portfolio Composition

Given this context, a long-term vision dominates the current objectives of investment portfolios. Specifically, 68.3% of private banking clients state that their goal is the long-term preservation of their wealth, and 65.2% point to consistent long-term returns. Only a minority of respondents (17.8%) affirm that achieving maximum returns is a current objective for their portfolio. Furthermore, only 3.3% have non-financial goals such as environmental or social impact. Caution and selective conviction also prevail in investment plans. For many investors, strategic and tactical approaches will coexist. Around 36.1% plan to review their strategic asset allocation, but 47% will adopt a more tactical approach as opportunities arise. It is also interesting to note that 29.7% will expand and seek new risk management approaches.

Only a minority plan major shifts toward specific themes or assets. For instance, only 9% foresee increasing exposure to technology and AI themes, followed by health/pharma and medicine (7.5%), energy and renewables (4.1%), and defense (3.9%). Regarding ESG matters, 15.1% plan to increase their investment, while 9.5% plan to reduce it. By country, according to Deutsche Bank’s dbInsights survey platform—which targets a broader audience in Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and the US—AI is consensus-ranked as the top investment theme, followed by renewable energy and biotechnology. In terms of risks, continental Europe is most concerned about geopolitical instability, whereas the US and the UK are more wary of government policy and regulation.

M&G Accelerates Growth with Asia as a Key Driver and Private Assets as the Engine of the Future

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CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrAndrea Rossi, Chief Executive Officer of M&G plc, the parent company of M&G Investments.

M&G is experiencing one of the strongest periods in its recent history. After returning to a solid growth trajectory, the asset manager has once again posted strong net inflows while reinforcing its international expansion strategy, driven in particular by the partnership reached last year with Japanese insurer Dai-ichi Life, now one of its largest shareholders and a strategic partner for expanding its business across Asia.

Funds Society recently attended the Media Forum organized by M&G Investments at its London headquarters, where the firm’s senior executives shared their views on the evolution of the business and the key trends shaping the investment industry.

Organic Growth at Double-Digit Rates

“Growth is what defines us.” With that message, Andrea Rossi, CEO of M&G plc, summarized the firm’s roadmap, which is built around sustained growth supported by what he considers a differentiated business model.

“Our business model is our competitive advantage, and our focus is on continuing to grow,” Rossi emphasized.

Rossi explained that 2025 was an exceptional year for M&G, with €9.1 billion in net inflows, a trend that continued into 2026, with positive net inflows during the first quarter.

Today, M&G Group manages €430.5 billion in assets, of which €394.5 billion is managed by M&G Investments. While the firm remains predominantly invested in listed assets (€302 billion), it has significantly expanded its private assets business in recent years, which now totals €93 billion, according to company data.

Rossi highlighted the strong performance of M&G’s European private markets business, a market now approaching €90 trillion and growing at roughly 10% annually—a pace the firm has successfully matched. At the same time, its international business—primarily Continental Europe and Asia—is expanding at approximately 6% annually, while M&G itself is growing at double-digit rates across those regions.

The CEO stressed that organic growth remains the firm’s top priority, although he left the door open to selective acquisitions.

“We want small acquisitions that we can successfully scale within our private assets platform,” he said.

Asia: M&G’s International Growth Engine

International expansion was perhaps the most recurring theme throughout the event.

For Rossi, “international expansion is key,” with Japan occupying a central role in that strategy. Dai-ichi Life’s investment in M&G has strengthened a partnership that extends well beyond the shareholder relationship. In addition to distributing M&G’s products in Japan, the two firms also collaborate in asset management. M&G also maintains a strategic partnership with Mizuho, one of Japan’s largest banks.

Rossi explained that Japan presents an exceptional opportunity for both institutional and retail investors. An aging population, increasing life expectancy and a prolonged low-interest-rate environment have created substantial demand for long-term savings and investment solutions. Against that backdrop, M&G sees significant potential to capture part of the nearly $4 trillion currently held in Japanese bank deposits.

The partnership with Dai-ichi Life is also serving as a platform for accelerating growth across the rest of Asia.

M&G already has an institutional presence in Hong Kong, South Korea, Japan and Australia, while also distributing products in Taiwan. Today, the firm’s Asset Management division oversees approximately €17 billion in assets across Asia, a figure the company expects to grow as insurers, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds throughout the region increase their allocations.

“What has defined our growth has been a truly international effort. Once you decide to expand internationally, you need a very clear strategy and an equally strong ability to execute,” added Micaela Forelli, CEO of Europe Asset Management Operations at M&G Investments.

Forelli stressed that consistently delivering strong investment performance remains the firm’s first priority, but added that success also requires efficient operating models and effective use of available regulatory frameworks.

She highlighted the development of the UCITS industry over the past decade, describing it as one of Europe’s greatest financial exports.

“UCITS funds have become a global standard,” she said.

As an example, she noted that M&G’s Luxembourg fund structures are already distributed across 27 countries, although the potential is considerably greater, given that UCITS products are now marketed in 50 markets worldwide.

International growth opportunities, however, extend beyond geographic expansion.

Joseph Pinto, CEO of Asset Management at M&G Investments, argued that the transformation of pension systems represents one of the industry’s most significant long-term structural drivers.

Across Europe, many countries are introducing reforms to encourage defined contribution pension plans, following the path pioneered by the United Kingdom. Germany is expected to be one of the next examples.

“An increasing number of countries need to strengthen their retirement savings systems, creating a tremendous opportunity for our industry,” Pinto said.

He added that Asia offers even greater long-term potential. Unlike Europe or the United States, many Asian markets remain at a relatively early stage of development, with a growing number of individual investors beginning to seek long-term savings and investment products.

From an investment perspective, Pinto argued that Europe has once again become highly attractive for international investors.

The need to finance infrastructure, defense and new industrial capacity is creating opportunities across both public and private markets.

“We don’t aspire to be everything to everyone, but we do want to become a leading investment manager in Europe,” he said.

Private Assets, Diversification and Structural Megatrends

The third major theme of the event centered on the structural shifts reshaping institutional portfolios—changes that M&G believes strongly favor its positioning.

Rossi argued that Europe continues to attract strong interest from global investors and that, within private markets, the region is currently even more attractive than the United States.

That growing appeal is reflected in rising demand from European institutions as well as Asian and North American investors for infrastructure, private credit and European real estate.

Rossi framed this evolution within several megatrends that will drive investment demand over the coming years.

The energy transition, infrastructure development, Europe’s push for greater energy independence, rising defense spending and the investments required to deploy artificial intelligence will all require enormous amounts of capital at a time when European governments are already carrying high debt burdens.

“Governments are highly indebted, which means private markets and capital markets will need to play a greater role in financing these investments. We have the opportunity to support infrastructure that enables the energy transition, and given our expertise, this represents a tremendous growth opportunity for us,” Rossi said.

In his view, investor interest will continue to grow because Europe is undergoing a fundamental transformation in how its economy is financed.

Historically, European companies have relied much more heavily on bank lending than their U.S. counterparts. However, banks are reducing certain types of lending on their balance sheets, creating expanding opportunities for private capital.

While Rossi acknowledged that Europe remains a complex market—with different regulatory frameworks and business practices across countries—he believes that complexity is no longer the obstacle it once was. Greater political stability and increasing international interest are helping drive a rebalancing of global portfolios toward the region.

Pinto confirmed that this trend is already evident in conversations with clients.

Since last year, he said, an increasing number of investors have been modestly reducing their exposure to the United States while increasing allocations to Europe and Asia.

“This doesn’t mean abandoning the United States, which remains a priority market. It means building more balanced and diversified portfolios,” he explained.

He added that diversification is taking place not only across regions but also across asset classes, with investors gradually shifting allocations from public to private markets.

“M&G is exceptionally well positioned to support that transition,” he said, citing the firm’s combination of active management expertise, innovation capabilities and access to permanent capital through the balance sheet of Prudential, the group’s parent company.

Finally, Kathryn McLeland, Chief Financial Officer of M&G plc, explained that the firm’s growth has also been supported by significant reinvestment.

After exceeding its cost-saving targets over the past three years, the company has been able to reinvest approximately €140 million into the business, allocating more than half of that amount to its asset management division, particularly toward strengthening its private assets capabilities.

LPs Increasingly Intend to Reduce the Number of Alternative Asset Managers in Their Portfolios

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At a time when geopolitical uncertainty has become an increasingly prominent concern for investors, a growing share of the LP community is looking to reduce the number of asset managers with which they maintain relationships. That is one of the key findings of the latest Global Private Capital Barometer from Coller Capital, published for the Northern Hemisphere summer, which shows an increasing proportion of investors planning to streamline their manager rosters.

According to the report, 23% of the limited partners surveyed said they intend to reduce the number of investment firms in their portfolios going forward. This represents a notable increase from the last time Coller included this question in its investor survey, in 2020, when only 16% of LPs planned to reduce the number of manager relationships.

Even so, more investors still intend to expand their manager lineup than reduce it. Thirty-eight percent of respondents expect to increase the number of managers in their portfolios.

With respect to asset classes, Coller noted that 57% of respondents do not anticipate making significant changes to their overall allocations. However, the survey does reveal cooling enthusiasm for private credit and infrastructure strategies.

Compared with the previous edition of the barometer, the proportion of investors planning to increase their allocation to private credit fell from 42% to 29% over the past six months. For infrastructure assets, the figure declined from 39% to 31% during the same period.

“This may simply represent a natural pause following periods of rapid growth for both asset classes, but the recent negative headlines surrounding private credit are also likely influencing LPs’ allocation plans,” the firm said in its report.

That does not mean investors are turning away from the asset class altogether. Coller emphasized that an “overwhelming majority” of respondents—87%—plan to either maintain or increase their private debt investments over the next 12 months.

What Is Driving Investment Decisions?

Global investors continue to allocate capital to alternative markets, with their long-term investment horizon providing some protection against short-term shocks.

“For that reason, it is not surprising that LPs continue deploying capital into private markets, even amid the unpredictable course of global events,” Coller Capital said in the report.

The survey found that one-third of limited partners expect to accelerate the pace of their commitments over the next two years, while 57% expect to maintain their current pace.

Moreover, 63% of respondents said the geopolitical environment has not altered its influence on their investment allocation decisions. The remaining respondents indicated that geopolitical considerations are playing a greater role in their decision-making process.

Coller noted, however, that the regional breakdown presents a more nuanced picture.

“Among our North American respondents, just under one-quarter (23%) said geopolitics plays a greater role than before. By contrast, investors in other regions appear considerably more concerned,” the report stated, with roughly half of investors in both Europe and Asia indicating that geopolitical developments have become a more significant factor in their investment decisions.

Equities: Leveraged ETFs and the Mechanics of Market Declines

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Hedge funds, which have maintained significant long positions in technology broadly—and in semiconductors and hardware in particular—are beginning to consider taking profits. On Tuesday, the Nasdaq posted one of the largest point declines in its history.

However, important technical factors also amplified the selloff in AI-related stocks. Assets invested in leveraged ETFs tied to technology or semiconductor indexes—such as TQQQ, SOXL, or MUU, the 2x leveraged ETF linked to Micron shares—have surged (+39% for the first, +261% for the second), with the category now approaching $190 billion in assets, an unthinkable figure just five years ago. The well-known 7709—the largest 2x leveraged ETF tracking SK Hynix, the memory chip manufacturer—has reached $16 billion in assets, while the Direxion Daily MU Bull 2X Shares ETF linked to Micron is approaching a market capitalization of $8 billion.

A 2x or 3x leveraged ETF must rebalance its exposure every day to maintain its leverage multiple. If the underlying index rises, the fund must buy additional exposure at the close; if it falls, it must sell. This daily rebalancing creates what is structurally a short gamma profile: buying into strength and selling into weakness. The more assets these products accumulate, the larger the mechanical trading flows generated by every market move.

This dynamic is amplified further because positioning is concentrated in only a handful of names. Memory and semiconductor stocks account for more than 10% of hedge funds’ long exposure, while roughly three-quarters of short gamma exposure is concentrated in semiconductors, the Nasdaq-100 (NDX) and related names. When the same hedging activity repeatedly impacts the same stocks, price movements become concentrated rather than dispersed.

The situation becomes even more complex when considering that the volatility of the stocks that have contributed most to the S&P 500’s appreciation is approaching the levels seen at the peak of the dot-com bubble. Given that those returns are concentrated in just a handful of stocks and sectors, portfolio risk management becomes significantly more challenging. At the same time, the risk of gamma-driven market effects increases if retail investors begin exiting leveraged products en masse. The resulting volatility drag could trigger a wave of investor dissatisfaction with these leveraged ETFs.

This mathematical effect, which is particularly pronounced in leveraged and inverse ETFs that must rebalance their exposure to the underlying asset on a daily basis, results in a gradual loss of value caused by day-to-day price fluctuations—even when the underlying asset ultimately returns to its original level.

Consider a simple example: an index falls by 10% and then rises by 10%. An unleveraged fund would decline from $100 to $90 and then recover to $99 after the rebound. A 3x leveraged ETF, however, would recover only to $91 following the same movement in the underlying index.

The recent volatility in semiconductor stocks—as reflected in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)—provides an ideal environment for this effect to materialize.

Micron’s earnings, released Wednesday evening, exceeded already ambitious expectations and could continue to support capital flows into leveraged products. However, this momentum is accompanied by increased market instability that should not be underestimated.

In addition, efforts to manage memory chip supply bottlenecks are beginning to spill over into consumer prices and inflation readings. Apple’s announcement of 15% to 25% price increases for Macs and iPads, beyond its implications for the company itself, suggests that the strategy of capitalizing on supply constraints may be reaching its limits.

Global Macro: PMIs Improve While Energy Prices Decline

The volatility in equity markets contrasts with the constructive economic data released this week. June flash PMI readings generally surprised to the upside, suggesting that the global economy continues to absorb the energy shock better than expected.

The U.S. composite PMI rose to 52.2 in June, its highest level since the onset of the conflict with Iran. In the eurozone, the composite PMI also exceeded expectations, coming in at 49.5 versus the 49.2 consensus forecast. Taken together, the data paint a constructive picture of the global economy as the second quarter draws to a close.

Markets also received another supportive tailwind in the form of lower energy prices. Brent crude fell to $73.80 per barrel, its lowest level in three months, reflecting the beginning of a normalization of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Dollar and the Fed: Enduring Dominance, but an Opportunity to Reduce Exposure

With the U.S. economy showing stronger momentum than Europe’s, the euro this week broke below its summer 2025 lows against the U.S. dollar.

The dollar’s dominance no longer appears to be under serious challenge. Neither the euro nor the renminbi represents a credible rival over the short to medium term. The euro continues to face unresolved questions in the absence of a genuine fiscal union—as illustrated by France’s budgetary difficulties in 2025. Meanwhile, the Chinese renminbi (CNY) would require a fully open capital account and much deeper, more liquid financial markets before becoming a meaningful alternative, a process that could take decades.

In reality, central banks have not been selling dollars; rather, they have been diversifying their reserves into other currencies. That diversification, concentrated in smaller currencies such as the Canadian and Australian dollars, has risen from 2% to 11% since 2000—a shift that remains far too small to undermine global demand for the U.S. dollar.

The global savings surplus generated by China, the eurozone, Japan and the Gulf countries continues to be structurally recycled into U.S. assets because only the United States offers financial markets with sufficient depth and liquidity to absorb those flows. Net foreign capital inflows into U.S. assets have returned to record highs, and that trend is likely to persist as long as artificial intelligence continues to drive the S&P 500 and Nasdaq as leaders of global equity markets.

Structurally, the dollar remains an expensive currency, and with concerns over the end of U.S. exceptionalism having largely subsided for now, its valuation will depend primarily on inflation-adjusted interest rate differentials.

The yield curve still implies one additional rate hike between October and December. Lower oil prices will reduce inflation expectations while supporting corporate profit margins. However, accumulated supply shocks—including tariffs and higher energy costs—continue to feed through into inflation data. Indicators such as supply chain stress, order backlogs and delivery times suggest that core inflation may peak somewhat later than previously expected. Even so, conditions in the labor market appear to be improving.

The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a restrictive bias in the coming months, but the most probable scenario is that it remains on hold for the rest of the year—neither raising rates nor cutting them until 2027, when disinflation is expected to resume more forcefully.

There are four reasons why U.S. inflation could eventually surprise to the downside. First, the New York Fed’s inflation gauge suggests that the recent inflation rebound has been driven primarily by supply-side factors. Second, declining crude oil prices should pull inflation expectations lower. Third, distortions resulting from the government shutdown will gradually fade from the data. Finally, the adoption of artificial intelligence is boosting labor productivity at annual rates approaching 3%, while unit labor costs have fallen sharply.

For all of these reasons—and given the U.S. dollar’s tendency to exhibit momentum—it is plausible that the currency could appreciate somewhat further in the short term, as our model suggests. Nevertheless, all indications point to this being an attractive opportunity to reduce exposure to the dollar.

The U.S. Consolidates Its Position as the Global Epicenter of Private Equity Value Creation

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The U.S. venture capital market displayed a sharply divergent pattern during the first five months of 2026: investors completed slightly fewer transactions but deployed substantially more capital than during the same period a year earlier.

According to GlobalData, the total number of venture capital deals announced in the United States declined by 2% year over year between January and May 2026, while total funding value more than tripled.

“This divergence reflects a clear trend toward larger funding rounds and highly selective megadeals. It reinforces the United States as the undisputed epicenter of global venture capital value creation, even amid a modest slowdown in overall deal activity. It is also worth noting that much of this increase in funding value was driven by multibillion-dollar investments secured by a handful of artificial intelligence startups,” said Aurojyoti Bose, Lead Analyst at GlobalData.

Why the U.S. Remains the Global Leader

Among the most notable U.S. financing rounds during the January–May 2026 period were OpenAI’s $122 billion fundraising, Anthropic’s consecutive funding rounds of $65 billion and $30 billion, and xAI’s $20 billion capital raise, among others.

Analysis of GlobalData’s financial deals database shows that despite the decline in transaction volume, the United States maintained its global leadership, accounting for approximately 30% of all venture capital deals announced worldwide between January and May 2026.

At the same time, the sharp increase in deal value propelled the U.S. to capture an overwhelming 81% of global venture capital investment, underscoring the country’s outsized influence in shaping international capital allocation trends.

According to Bose, “the substantial gap between the U.S. share of deal volume and its share of funding value highlights a market characterized by larger average check sizes and a high concentration of capital in high-conviction investment opportunities.”

Other Venture Capital Hotspots

Compared with other major markets, the United States continues to outperform its competitors by a wide margin.

China, the world’s second-largest venture capital market, experienced a strong rebound. The number of transactions increased by approximately 41% year over year, while total deal value surged by around 220%. As a result, China accounted for 23% of global venture capital deal volume and 7% of global funding value. Although these figures point to renewed momentum, China’s share of total investment value remains only a fraction of that of the United States.

The United Kingdom accounted for 7% of global deal volume and 3% of total funding value, while India represented 8% of global transactions but just 1% of worldwide funding value.

“Compared with the U.S., venture capital activity in these markets points to considerably more cautious investor sentiment and a lower frequency of large-scale financing rounds during the period,” GlobalData noted.

Five Months of Record Highs and Historic Flows for Active ETFs Worldwide

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Assets in active ETFs reached a new all-time high of $2.49 trillion at the end of May, driven by a record $412 billion in year-to-date net inflows. According to ETFGI’s latest monthly report, the global active ETF industry attracted $100.08 billion in net inflows during May alone, bringing total inflows for the first five months of 2026 to $411.75 billion.

According to the report, assets have increased 28.8% year to date, up from the $1.93 trillion recorded at the end of 2025, reflecting the increasingly strong and accelerating adoption of active investment strategies in the ETF format.

“Year-to-date net inflows through May—$411.75 billion—are the highest ever recorded, shattering the previous record of $220.53 billion during the same period in 2025. With this performance, the industry has now posted 74 consecutive months of net inflows, reinforcing a sustained structural shift toward these investment solutions worldwide,” ETFGI noted.

A breakdown of the flows shows that active equity ETFs led subscriptions, attracting $60.97 billion in net inflows during May. Year to date, they have gathered $242.18 billion, significantly higher than the $124.28 billion recorded during the same period in 2025.

Meanwhile, active fixed income ETFs posted $26.12 billion in net inflows in May. Total year-to-date inflows reached $136.73 billion, compared with $82.09 billion through May 2025, underscoring investors’ continued appetite for income generation and portfolio diversification.

Leading Asset Managers

Dimensional remains the world’s largest active ETF provider by assets under management, with $296.82 billion and an 11.9% market share. It is followed closely by J.P. Morgan Asset Management, with $291.38 billion in assets (11.7% market share), while iShares ranks third with $168.64 billion (6.8% market share).

According to ETFGI, these three firms—out of 717 providers operating in the market—collectively account for 30.4% of global active ETF assets, while none of the remaining 714 providers individually holds a market share of more than 6%.