Transforming financial advisory in Mexico and Chile: the key to the independent and technological model

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Photo courtesyAlicia Arias, Commercial Director of LAKPA

In an increasingly demanding financial environment, where technology is redefining the rules of the game and inclusion becomes an unavoidable priority, voices like that of Alicia Arias, Commercial Director of LAKPA, gain special relevance. LAKPA is a fintech company aspiring to become the largest community of independent financial advisors in Spanish-speaking Latin America. Currently, it has over 260 advisors in Chile and is actively expanding into the Mexican market.

In this exclusive interview for the Key Trends Watch by FlexFunds and Funds Society, Arias shares her vision on the transformative role of independent financial advisory and the challenges faced by wealth management in Latin America.

Far from viewing the financial industry as an environment reserved for a few, Arias sees it as a tool to generate real impact in the lives of individuals and companies. “Participating in this industry gives us the opportunity to make a difference in society,” she states. With a career that includes leadership positions at firms like BlackRock and GBM, her current focus is on bringing investment solutions to a broader audience and empowering independent financial advisors.

Simultaneously, she promotes initiatives aimed at modernizing and humanizing the sector, such as the non-profit association Mujeres en Finanzas, which encourages the development of diverse talent in the industry. From her perspective, fostering greater representation and professionalism not only enhances service quality but also broadens access to opportunities that have historically been limited to a few.

In her role at LAKPA, Arias drives an independent financial advisory model that seeks to professionalize and scale the service in Latin America. “Today, there are fewer than 5,000 active advisors in Mexico for a population of over 100 million.” For Arias, the key lies in freeing advisors from operational tasks through technological platforms that allow them to focus on the client and autonomously choose the segment they wish to serve, from affluent profiles to ultra high net worth individuals.

The expert highlights the enormous potential of the affluent segment, often overlooked by large institutions: “Many investors with $200,000 or $300,000 end up trapped in generic products or with poor advisory.” She firmly believes that, with the right tools, it is possible to offer them high-quality service. “We are seeing more and more advisors building their portfolios around this segment, with independence, structure, and access to global solutions. To me, that is a real transformation of the advisory model in the region,” she concludes.

Three key trends in financial advisory

For Arias, the future of wealth advisory revolves around three major trends:

  1. Fee-based accounts: a transparent model that eliminates traditional conflicts of interest in the industry and places the client at the center.
  2. Technology as an enabler: platforms that automate administrative processes and free up the advisor’s time to generate real value.
  3. Independent advisory: a service centered on the investor, without conflicts of interest and with an open architecture. Until the arrival of players like LAKPA, this was only accessible to high-net-worth clients.

Collective vehicles: efficiency and access from an expert’s perspective

In her opinion, collective investment vehicles are particularly attractive in the context of independent financial advisory. Products like ETFs have become key tools due to their efficiency, liquidity, transparency, and low cost, allowing advisors to build diversified portfolios with access to markets that were previously restricted.

“A client enters an ETF at the same price as an institutional investor,” she emphasizes, highlighting the democratizing role of these instruments. From her perspective, these types of solutions enable the provision of professional and competitive advisory, even in segments like the affluent.

Alternatives on the rise: perspective on wealth demand

From her experience, alternative assets have ceased to be exclusive to the institutional world and have become a growing trend in wealth management. “Financial advisors are already allocating a portion of portfolios to these types of strategies,” she states. In her opinion, two factors have been key to this evolution: on one hand, innovation in vehicles—such as semi-liquid funds, evergreen funds, or those with more frequent liquidity windows—which make them more suitable for this segment; and on the other, the emergence of technological platforms that allow access to funds from major managers with tickets starting at $20,000.

According to Arias, advisors are already incorporating between 10% and 15% of alternatives in more aggressive portfolios, with private debt funds being particularly attractive due to their generation of recurring income and lower exposure to the J-curve. In contrast, she observes that in many cases, traditional private equity may overlap with the business exposure that clients already have in their own companies. “That’s where private debt makes more sense: it allows for real diversification,” she concludes.

Financial education: the real challenge in capital raising

The biggest obstacle faced by financial advisors today is not the lack of available capital, but the lack of financial education among potential investors: “The money is there, but the client still doesn’t have the necessary information to take the first step,” says Arias. To illustrate this, she cites a figure from the Bank of Mexico: resources in demand accounts—that is, money that is not invested or is invested for very short terms—amount to over 400 billion pesos, a figure that doubles the size of the investment fund industry in the country.

In her opinion, this idle capital could be generating returns if there were greater awareness of the available alternatives, something in which advisors can play a key role. Additionally, she explains that the location of assets largely depends on the client’s profile: while higher-net-worth individuals tend to invest offshore, thanks to their operational capacity and access to international custodians, the affluent segment usually keeps their money onshore.

The irreplaceable role of the advisor in the face of technological advancement

For the expert, technology is revolutionizing financial advisory, but the human role remains essential. “Many professions are going to disappear or transform, but that of the financial advisor is not one of them,” she states. She cites a Vanguard study that classifies human tasks into basic, repetitive, and advanced. The first are easily automatable; the second, such as relating, teaching, or building trust, are not.

From this perspective, the value of the advisor lies in their ability to connect with the client. “Technology can optimize processes, but it doesn’t replace empathy or personalization. Those are the true competitive advantages,” she maintains. In her view, financial advisory, due to its high human component, will not only withstand technological change but will become even more relevant.

A more human and conscious future for wealth management

Looking ahead to the next 5 to 10 years, Arias identifies two key challenges for the sector: the climate crisis and the retirement crisis. “We will live longer, but not necessarily better if we don’t plan properly,” she warns. The industry must take an active role, designing sustainable solutions tailored to real needs, especially in underserved segments.

In this context, empathy will be the critical skill for the advisor. “Trust is built by listening, understanding, and acting with sensitivity. No platform replaces that,” she emphasizes.

Arias concludes with a strategic outlook: the growth of the sector will not come solely from technology, but from a combination of digital tools and expert advisory. “The hybrid model is the catalyst. Technology alone is not enough. People need guidance, trust, empathy,” she points out.

In a continent with significant gaps in access to quality financial services, Alicia Arias’s vision paves the way for a model that bets on independence, technology, and, above all, human talent as the engine of transformation.

Interview conducted by Emilio Veiga Gil, Executive Vice President of FlexFunds, in the context of the Key Trends Watch by FlexFunds and Funds Society.

BlackRock Launches an ETF Focused on European Defense Sector Companies

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According to the asset manager, the fund is designed to provide targeted exposure to European defense sector companies, selected based on their revenue levels at a time when European nations are increasing public spending to strengthen their defense capabilities. The firm notes that as Europe advances in reconfiguring its security architecture and enhancing resilience, investors are increasingly interested in aligning their portfolios with national strategic priorities and the opportunities offered by the defense sector.

Research from SIPRI indicates that NATO, excluding the United States, increased its spending by $68 billion, or 19%, between 2022 and 2023. It is also highlighted that all NATO members increased their military spending in 2024. The European Commission has called for an increase in “made in Europe” defense spending to ensure long-term security and generate economic benefits for countries in the region. The proposals include boosting European budgets to create €650 billion in fiscal space over four years. In this context, on May 19, 2025, the United Kingdom and the European Union signed a Security and Defense Agreement. A BlackRock study of EMEA-based portfolios reveals that only 2% have an explicit allocation to the defense sector, with such exposure representing, on average, less than 1.6% of the total portfolio.

Regarding this ETF, Jane Sloan, Head of Global Product Solutions for EMEA at BlackRock, stated: “In recent months, our European clients have consistently expressed interest in gaining exposure to the European defense sector. Many European countries are prepared to increase spending, strengthen cooperation, and prioritize European companies. BlackRock offers investors targeted exposure to the European defense sector while also channeling capital into Europe to support local industry and the strategic goals of the region’s countries. This new launch provides clients with a set of tools to precisely express their views and access the long-term structural drivers of the defense sector.”

Axel Lomholt, CEO of STOXX, added: “At STOXX, we are committed to developing index solutions that respond to Europe’s evolving strategic priorities. Our new STOXX Europe Targeted Defence Index reflects this mission by offering a transparent, rules-based approach to selecting companies that contribute to Europe’s defense and security. The index provides an accurate representation of the industry by incorporating high-quality revenue data from military equipment into the selection and weighting of companies active in the defense industry. This reflects the unique synergies of ISS STOXX, where data, expert insight, and index innovation are combined to meet the market’s changing needs.”

The STOXX Europe Targeted Defence Index is based on the STOXX Europe All Country All Cap Index and selects its components (price-weighted) according to revenue levels derived from military equipment, using ISS research data. This revenue-based selection ensures that the index maintains a strong focus and concentration on companies generating a high percentage of their revenue from the defense sector.

DFEU has a total expense ratio (TER) of 35 basis points and is classified as Article 6 under the SFDR. It is listed on Euronext Amsterdam and Xetra.

Blackstone Launches a Multi-Asset Private Credit Fund

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Blackstone has announced the launch of the Blackstone Private Multi-Asset Credit and Income Fund (BMACX), the firm’s first private interval fund focused on multi-asset credit. According to the company, it is available through advisors and aims to provide access to strategies within Blackstone’s credit platform, which manages $465 billion. The fund offers ticker-based execution with daily subscriptions, quarterly liquidity, and low investment minimums, with capital deployed immediately.

“We believe BMACX can serve as a foundational component in portfolio construction to capitalize on expanding credit markets. It offers individuals full access to Blackstone’s credit platform in what we consider an investor-friendly structure,” said Heather von Zuben, Chief Executive Officer of BMACX.

Dan Oneglia, Chief Investment Officer of BMACX, added:
“Our goal will be to deliver diversified, high-quality income with lower volatility than traditional fixed income products by investing in a broad range of attractive credit assets. We believe this multi-strategy approach positions investors to capitalize on compelling relative value, particularly in dynamic market environments.”

BMACX will invest in a diverse range of credit assets, including private corporate credit, asset-backed and real estate credit, structured credit, and liquid credit, aiming to provide attractive and stable income through monthly distributions while managing risk. BMACX builds on Blackstone’s leadership in delivering private credit solutions to individual investors, with dedicated vehicles focused on direct lending available since 2018.

Strong Demand and High Cost for the First International Debt Issuance of the Milei Era

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CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrBuenos Aires, Puerto Madero

The Argentine government had to pay a steep price — 29.5% — in its first international debt issuance under President Javier Milei. Nevertheless, it successfully placed the $1 billion Bonte 2030 bond (a dollar-denominated debt security that pays in pesos), with demand exceeding supply.

This marks the first issuance of local currency bonds under Argentine law targeted at foreign investors in seven years. The offering saw strong demand, with bids totaling $1.694 billion from 146 investors.

The Market Had Expected a Yield Around 22%

The issuance met the goal set by Argentine authorities: to increase reserves without intervening in the exchange rate, which currently fluctuates within two bands. However, the Bonte 2030 came at a high cost: while the market had anticipated a yield of around 22%, the final rate was significantly higher.

“In Argentina, if you go back to what happened in 2017 and 2018, the government at the time (Mauricio Macri’s administration) issued around $4 billion in bonds similar to the Bonte, and the holders of those bonds who kept them to maturity lost all their capital due to a nearly 100% devaluation of the peso. So it makes sense that investors would demand a premium, especially since this is the first significant issuance in the market, in local currency, and with a long duration,” explained Juan Salerno, partner and head of investments for Argentina at Vinci Compass.

Banco Mariva offered a similar analysis: “The 29.5% yield at which the bond was issued exceeded market expectations and may initially seem excessive. However, there are various interpretations: the yield includes an initial risk premium the government must pay to reestablish market access. Another perspective (supported by the government) is that the 29.5% rate aligns with both the dollar yield curve (around 12%) and the CER curve (real yields of around 10%).”

Paula Bujía from Buda Partners explained that “demand was oriented toward real yields closer to 10%, far above the 5% that some local traders considered reasonable and in line with current CER (inflation-adjusted) bond yields. The inclusion of a two-year early redemption (‘put’) clause also serves to reduce risk. Additionally, the perception that the official exchange rate is overvalued is not a minor factor: had the peso been closer to the upper band (1300–1400), the required yield might have been lower.”

Analysts from Adcap Grupo Financiero noted that the rate was identical to that of a one-year peso Treasury bill (Lecap): “As in other auctions, the government offered a premium, though in this case it was significant. The cut-off rate was set at a nominal 29.5% (31.7% effective annual), virtually identical to the one-year Lecap rate.”

A Positive Issuance to Boost Reserves

A recent report by Cohen Aliados Financieros noted that under the terms of the IMF agreement from April, the BCRA (Central Bank of Argentina) is required to bring its net reserves to –$2.746 billion by June of this year and reach a positive balance by the end of 2025.

In this context, Juan Salerno of Vinci Compass explained that this issuance is positive given the government’s goal of meeting its reserve targets with the IMF, because “local currency bonds are counted at 100% toward net reserves, and this bond is subscribed in dollars, which means the dollars go directly into reserves. The broader context is that the government doesn’t want to buy dollars within the floating bands, so the only way to meet the reserve target is to turn to external borrowing.”

Analysts point to another positive aspect: it opens the door to similar future issuances. The identities of the 146 entities that purchased the Bonte 2030 are not public, but the market believes they are international risk funds.

Salerno noted that, internationally, Vinci Compass currently holds no peso-denominated Argentine bonds but does hold dollar-denominated ones — both sovereign and corporate, including some provincial issues. Locally, the firm does participate in the peso market.

“The Bonte issuance is a first step because there are still capital controls in Argentina (exceptions were made in this case), and we still need greater predictability. We believe it will be successful because this rate will attract many investors. Now, it’s important to watch how the secondary market behaves; I also believe it will be successful if the government maintains its goal of controlling inflation,” said the Vinci Compass expert.

Paula Bujía of Buda Partners also offered an encouraging note: “Looking on the bright side, and recalling the BOTES issued in 2016 — which debuted with high yields but then compressed significantly as macroeconomic conditions improved — this new placement could meet a similar fate. If Argentina continues to normalize its economy and starts accumulating reserves, the Bonte 2030 could follow a similar path of spread compression and pave the way for less onerous issuances for the government. But it’s important to note that issuing debt is not enough: reserves must also be accumulated to satisfy the market.”

Columbia Threadneedle Investments Enters the Active ETF Business in Europe

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Columbia Threadneedle Investments has announced that it will offer its range of active ETFs in Europe. According to the firm, it plans to launch four equity UCITS vehicles in the UK and Europe over the course of this year, subject to regulatory approval. These four new active ETFs will offer European clients exposure to global, U.S., European, and emerging market equities. The firm also noted that its goal is to expand the range and include active fixed income ETFs next year.

The initial product range will be managed by Chris Lo, Senior Portfolio Manager, and his team based in the United States. They currently manage $15 billion in assets across 13 U.S.-domiciled funds. Columbia Threadneedle has a strong track record in designing and managing ETF strategies tailored to client needs, with $5.5 billion in assets under management across 14 U.S.-domiciled ETFs.

The new active equity ETFs launching in the European market will leverage the firm’s expertise in ETF and systematic solutions management. According to Columbia Threadneedle, the new lineup is built on the investment approach of the Columbia Research Enhanced Core ETF, a Morningstar five-star rated fund that combines quantitative analysis with Columbia Threadneedle’s extensive fundamental research capabilities. “The active equity ETFs will be truly active, designed to outperform the index,” the firm states.

Following the announcement, Richard Vincent, Head of Product (EMEA) at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, explained: “We are continuously looking to develop and expand our investment offering for clients, providing innovative, high-value products and solutions that complement our existing range. In this regard, bringing active ETFs to Europe and building on the foundation of our successful U.S. platform is a natural expansion that draws on years of experience delivering ETF solutions to our U.S. clients.”

A Clear Vision

Columbia Threadneedle’s new European active equity ETFs aim to meet various needs of discretionary fund buyers. First, by offering high-conviction core equity positions as fundamental building blocks for portfolios—strategies aligned with benchmark indices but designed to generate alpha through genuine stock selection.

The firm also emphasizes that this is a proven, consistent, and replicable investment strategy, combining quantitative and fundamental analysis within a rules-based, repeatable, and easy-to-understand framework. In addition, it offers transparency and cost efficiency: daily disclosure of investment decisions, a portfolio designed to minimize transaction costs, and competitive fees.

“We are excited to bring this innovative and differentiated investment strategy to the European market in an active ETF format. These four new active ETFs will complement our existing open-ended fund offering, expanding options for clients seeking core active components for their portfolios. Active ETFs are increasingly being adopted by clients as an efficient way to implement portfolios. By leveraging our U.S. track record, we can offer clients excellent value. We believe this represents a genuine growth opportunity for us in the region,” said Michaela Collet Jackson, Head of Distribution and Marketing for EMEA at Columbia Threadneedle Investments.

Global Private Equity Investment Grows 14% After Two Years of Decline

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The latest report from McKinsey & Company, the Global Private Markets Review 2025, reveals that raising capital continues to be a challenge, resulting in a 24% reduction in new commitments globally to $589 billion in 2024—marking the third consecutive year of decline. Nevertheless, distributions to LPs surpassed capital contributions for the first time since 2015, providing much-needed relief to investors during a pivotal moment for sector liquidity.

However, global investment in Private Equity reached $2 trillion in 2024, recording a 14% increase after two years of decline. This rebound was driven by a notable rise in both the number and value of large transactions, primarily under buyout strategies, amid more favorable financing conditions. Moreover, entry multiples approached levels seen in 2021 and 2022, reflecting increased investor confidence in the potential for asset appreciation.

Greater Focus on Value Creation

The 2024 investment landscape was marked by higher entry multiples and longer holding periods, intensifying pressure on Private Equity funds to generate value through more active strategies focused on operational and revenue enhancements in their portfolio companies. In this context, add-on mergers and acquisitions accounted for 40% of total private equity deal value, consolidating their position as a key driver of returns.

Debt costs improved gradually, leading to a rise in the value of new credit issuances for private equity-backed companies. However, global dry powder declined by 11% in the first half of 2024, standing at $2.1 trillion, reducing the inventory to 1.89 years.

Tomeu Palmer, Partner at McKinsey and Leader of the Private Equity & Principal Investors practice in Iberia, states: “For private equity managers, focusing on value creation through operational and growth levers has never been more important. Entry multiples have reached historical highs and holding periods are longer, making operational optimization and growth essential for delivering strong returns.”

New Dynamics in the Secondary Market

The secondary market has become a significant additional liquidity source for LPs, with a 45% increase in transaction value. This growth has fueled LP interest in seeking liquidity beyond distributions, as well as in GP-led secondaries through the creation of continuation vehicles as a strategy for portfolio management. In total, secondary transactions reached $162 billion—the highest level on record.

Meanwhile, middle-market funds were the only ones to maintain stable fundraising levels amid widespread declines. Large funds failed to grow for the first time in three years, while smaller and newly launched funds faced greater challenges, with longer fundraising periods and lower volumes. Nonetheless, LP confidence in the Private Equity segment remains strong, with 30% planning to increase their allocation to private equity over the next 12 months, according to McKinsey’s global LP survey.

“The secondary market has gained unprecedented relevance, reaching a record-breaking transaction volume of $162 billion. More than half of this total was driven by LP-led transactions, showing that investors have found this mechanism to be an efficient way to reallocate capital and manage liquidity. Moreover, the GP-led segment also reached record figures, with 84% of these funds channeled through continuation vehicles,” says Joseba Eceiza, Senior Partner at McKinsey and Leader of the Private Equity & Principal Investors practice in Iberia.

GPMR Report Highlights

Global fundraising fell by 24% to $589 billion, marking the third consecutive year of decline. Transaction activity rebounded by 14% to $2 trillion, the third-highest figure ever recorded in the sector.

For the first time since 2015, distributions to investors exceeded capital contributions, easing liquidity pressures. Buyouts led fundraising efforts and achieved the highest internal rate of return (IRR) in 2024, with a significant increase in transactions exceeding $500 million.

Venture capital experienced a drop in both the number and value of deals, reflecting a decrease in momentum in that segment. Growth equity showed relative stability, although it was affected by investor caution and tighter debt conditions.

The financing environment improved with lower costs and increased issuance value for new private equity-backed debt. Global dry powder fell by 11% in the first half of 2024 to $2.1 trillion, reducing inventory levels to 1.89 years.

A global LP survey revealed that 30% of respondents plan to increase their private equity allocations over the next 12 months, indicating continued confidence in the asset class. Large-scale transactions (over $500 million) increased by 37% in value and 3% in volume, highlighting a growing preference for larger deals.

The rise of the secondary market and a higher number of exits by financial sponsors reflect a more sophisticated approach to portfolio and liquidity management strategies.

William López, New Head of Europe and Latin America at Jupiter AM

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William Lopez head Europe Latin America
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Jupiter Asset Management has announced the appointment of William López as the new Head of Europe and Latin America. Until now, López served as Head of Latin America, Iberia, France, and US Offshore. With this internal promotion, he expands his responsibilities in response to a broader review of the firm’s approach in the EMEA region.

According to the firm, US Offshore will remain under his responsibilities. The appointment is intended to further advance the firm in some of its key international markets, as well as to strengthen its focus on managing cross-border key accounts, working closely with the existing sales teams in each market.

One such team is the Iberia team, led by Francisco Amorim, Head of Business Development for Iberia at Jupiter Asset Management since fall 2024. The team also includes Susana García, Sales Director, and Adela Cervera, Business Development Manager. “Jupiter’s team in the Iberian region works very closely with William to drive business growth in this market, aiming to optimize sales capabilities and foster commercial momentum,” the firm explained.

Crypto Assets Sneak Into the S&P 500 and Break a New Barrier

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On May 19, 2025, Coinbase will officially be added to the S&P 500, becoming the first major crypto platform to join the world’s most iconic stock index. For experts in the crypto space, this milestone marks an unprecedented level of institutional validation for the digital asset sector.

“This is not a symbolic gesture but a structural confirmation: Coinbase has met the rigorous standards for stability, liquidity, and profitability required by the index committee, which only admits well-established companies from the U.S. corporate elite,” says Dovile Silenskyte, Director of Digital Assets Research at WisdomTree.

Coinbase’s inclusion coincides with a moment of strong momentum in the market: Bitcoin has surpassed $100,000, and altcoins such as Solana, Ether, and XRP are seeing significant capital inflows. “This reinforces renewed investor interest in the crypto ecosystem, and inclusion in the S&P 500 means Coinbase will begin channeling passive flows from the trillions of dollars tracking this index,” adds Silenskyte.

In the first week of May, Bitcoin surged past $100,000 and is now very close to its all-time high of $110,400. “Altcoins also rallied, in some cases even outperforming Bitcoin. Ethereum, for example, gained 28% against Bitcoin last week, driven both by the trade agreement and the successful rollout of the long-awaited ‘Pectra’ upgrade on the Ethereum mainnet. On the more speculative end of the market, memecoins posted even steeper gains, in some cases up to 125%,” notes Simon Peters, analyst at eToro.

However, experts remain cautious, and the current rally in crypto assets comes with nuances. For example, Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research Analyst at Julius Baer, points out that Ethereum is not to silver what Bitcoin is to gold. “Their fundamental drivers are very different. In the short term, volatile —and noisy— macroeconomic conditions may obscure these distinctions, causing Ethereum to behave like a high-beta version of Bitcoin, but in the long run, each token’s fundamentals will prevail. Flows into Ethereum ETFs have been minimal —at best—. At the same time, we clearly see institutional interest in collateral management and stablecoins, where significant activity may concentrate on Ethereum. Meanwhile, its supply remains inflationary, as network activity is still limited,” Villegas notes.

The Coinbase Case

Focusing on Coinbase, it’s worth highlighting that the company, which survived the bear market and regulatory pressure of 2022–2023, successfully transformed itself: it cut costs, diversified revenues into areas like staking, custody, and blockchain infrastructure, and posted GAAP profits in 2024, which cemented its eligibility.

“This inclusion accelerates the institutionalization of the crypto world and removes barriers for traditional investors, who now see Coinbase as a legitimate gateway to the sector. It also sends a clear signal to traditional financial firms: Wall Street is no longer watching from afar—it is participating, allocating capital, and gaining exposure —even passively— to crypto. What was once marginal is now an integral part of the global financial architecture. Crypto assets are no longer knocking on the system’s door — they’ve been handed the keys,” concludes Silenskyte.

Bull Market

Current market conditions are dominated by macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, suggesting that volatility driven by external events will remain present. As for this asset class, crypto regulation in the U.S. and the UK is expected to remain one of the most relevant drivers throughout the rest of the year, with stablecoins being the key issue in the U.S. and spot ETFs the top priority in the UK.

According to Julius Baer, the crypto market’s rally reflects an improvement in risk sentiment, driven by the easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Silenskyte explains that Bitcoin’s price increase is fundamentally based on its scarcity, with institutional demand outpacing supply. Meanwhile, due to differing fundamentals, Ethereum is likely to continue diverging from Bitcoin in the long term, despite currently being influenced by similar macroeconomic trends. “Regulatory developments in the U.S. and the UK will be key factors shaping the market going forward. Investors should act with caution, as macro-driven volatility will remain,” she notes.

In their view, sentiment in the crypto market appears to have shifted significantly, in line with improved sentiment across financial markets following signs of easing U.S.–China trade tensions. “That said, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have also rallied due to multiple acquisitions happening in the background, among which Coinbase’s $2.9 billion acquisition of the non-listed options trading platform Deribit marked a turning point in the pause in crypto sector M&A activity,” concludes the Julius Baer analyst.

Trade Uncertainty: Have We Hit the Ceiling?

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Markets appear to have breathed a sigh of relief following the truce agreement between Washington and Beijing, which includes a reduction in tariffs on Chinese exports to the U.S. from 145% to 30% for a period of 90 days. “The news that China and the U.S. have rolled back policies that, in practice, amounted to a trade blockade between the two countries has been warmly welcomed by the markets. Investors are hopeful that this three-month window will be used to negotiate a lasting agreement that, while unlikely to remove all tensions stemming from strategic competition, at least provides a more predictable environment for companies,” says Sean Shepley, Senior Economist at Allianz Global Investors.

According to experts, markets gained ground, led by cyclical sectors. “In the U.S., inflation stability offered slight relief, though the rise in durable goods prices was not fully offset by the slowdown in service inflation. In Europe, cyclical sectors such as automotive rebounded, though sector rotation began to show signs of fatigue by the end of the period, with defensive sectors making a comeback. Investors are now waiting for a new catalyst, as the good news appears to be already priced in,” summarizes Edmond de Rothschild AM.

According to the firm’s analysis, U.S. economic data for April have yet to reflect the impact of the increased tariffs, either in prices or consumer spending. “The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month stood at 2.3%, so the anticipated acceleration has not yet materialized, not even in goods. Services continued to ease. Meanwhile, falling oil prices helped slow energy and food inflation. The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed imported goods prices rising slightly from 2.3% in March to 2.5%,” they note.

With PMI releases still pending this week, analysts at Banca March believe market attention in the U.S. will focus on negotiations over the tax reform promoted by President Trump. “According to House Speaker Mike Johnson, the proposal could go to a vote next Monday. The new law gains relevance after Moody’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating. Market attention will also be on Treasury auctions, particularly a $16 billion 20-year bond issue scheduled for Wednesday,” they explain.

The Truce Between Washington and Beijing

In the view of Paolo Zanghieri, Senior Economist at Generali AM (part of Generali Investments), the unexpected and swift agreement to temporarily de-escalate trade tensions between China and the U.S. shows there is a sort of “Trump option,” even if the exercise price is higher than expected. “Following the truce, we have revised our growth forecasts for the U.S. and the eurozone to 1.6% (from 1%) and 1% (from 0.9%), respectively, and reduced our forecast for Fed rate cuts from three to two by year-end. In terms of asset allocation, we have strengthened our preference for investment grade bonds while maintaining a slight overweight in equities. The peak of uncertainty has passed, and trade protectionists no longer seem to hold the upper hand in the U.S. administration—but caution is still warranted,” explains Zanghieri.

He first points out that the truce with China is temporary, with the suspension of punitive tariffs set to expire on July 8, though he expects it to be extended until the U.S. reaches agreements with key trading partners. “This extension, while welcome, would not fully resolve the uncertainty that continues to hinder corporate capex planning,” he adds.

Second, he notes that the universal 10% tariff and the 25% tariffs on steel, aluminum, automobiles, and auto parts remain in effect, with few exemptions, which will impact both growth and inflation. “U.S. trade authorities are still assessing potential security threats from imports of semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, critical minerals, and commercial aircraft, among others, which could trigger new sector-specific tariffs,” he explains.

Lastly, Zanghieri highlights that the only near-finalized deal—with the UK—has very limited scope and includes provisions aimed at excluding China from British supply chains in strategic sectors. “Beijing would strongly oppose this becoming a standard feature of all trade agreements,” he concludes.

Navigating the 90-Day Pause

In the view of Andrew Lake, Chief Investment Officer and Head of Fixed Income at Mirabaud Asset Management, the rhetoric may sound familiar, but this latest chapter in the tariff saga comes with a notable shift: “The real negotiations are not between the United States and its trading partners, but between the White House and the U.S. bond markets.”

According to Lake’s analysis, a subtle yet significant change has emerged in recent weeks: Trump appears far less reactive to stock market volatility than during his first term, when he often measured his success by the performance of the S&P 500. “This time, the key indicator is U.S. funding costs. He wants lower Treasury yields, lower interest rates, and a weaker dollar. When Treasury yields started to break down in April, the tone changed. Now it is the bond market—not equities—that seems to be driving policy adjustments,” they explain. In Lake’s view, with most of the 90-day pause still ahead, markets remain optimistically positioned, buoyed by news of deals with the UK and China.

For Lake, the real question is whether financial markets, encouraged by optimism over tariffs, can look past current data and focus instead on the potentially better economic expectations now being priced in for the second half of the year.

“Clearly, we are in a worse position than at the start of the year, with 10% now seemingly the minimum tariff rate, but that is still much better than the situation just a few weeks ago. Doubts remain, but if this is now the ‘new normal,’ then we would expect agreements with other major trading partners to follow in the coming months. As we return to a ‘wait-and-see’ mode, our positioning remains cautious. Markets are rising on narrative, not fundamentals, and we have been reducing risk during these rallies. We prefer rotating into high-quality credit, where spreads have widened to levels we consider ‘recessionary.’ We are building exposure gradually at attractive entry points,” he concludes.

86% of Managers Will Increase Use of Alternative Data in the Next Two Years

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Asset managers plan to further increase their use of alternative data for research and analysis. Specifically, they are showing interest in emerging data types such as geolocation and consumer spending data. These are among the findings highlighted in the latest global report produced by Exabel and BattleFin.

The study, conducted with investment managers and analysts working at fund management firms overseeing a total of $820 billion in assets under management, found that 86% expect to increase their use of alternative datasets over the next two years. All data categories are expected to see increased demand, with 51% forecasting a drastic rise in the use of geolocation data over the next three years, and 50% anticipating significant growth in the use of consumer spending data.

The Exabel report, “Alternative Data Buy-side Insights & Trends 2025,” revealed that all surveyed managers and analysts in the U.S., U.K., Singapore, and Hong Kong currently use alternative data in some form. Nearly all respondents (98%) agree that traditional data and official figures are too slow to reflect changes in economic activity.

Consumer spending datasets are considered the most likely to provide a significant informational edge in the near future, according to the study. About 75% of respondents selected consumer spending data, compared with 50% who chose Natural Language Processing (NLP) and sentiment analysis, 45% who opted for social listening, and 43% who selected employment and labor mobility data. Only 7% chose satellite data.

The study also revealed that investment managers and analysts have developed experience in using alternative data: 61% said they began using it between three and five years ago, while nearly one in ten (9%) have used it for more than five years. Around 28% started using it between one and three years ago. Overall, their experience with these data sources has been positive, with 87% rating the process of using alternative data as good or excellent.

In response to these findings, Andreas Aglen, President of Exabel, stated: “Institutional investors have embraced alternative data as a key source of differentiated insight, and demand for alternative data as a critical component in generating alpha continues to accelerate. It is now even more evident that alternative data has become mainstream, serving as a vital source of information for investment managers worldwide.”

The following table shows fund managers’ forecasts for rising demand across different types of alternative data over the next three years, with all categories projected to grow.