España archivos - Funds Society

Can Bitcoin Be Considered a Reliable Measure of Market Liquidity?

For many experts, there is a strong correlation between Bitcoin and digital assets with global liquidity. According to Yves Bonzon, CIO of Julius Baer, we are facing one of the “most liquidity-sensitive segments in financial markets,” which has led some analysts to interpret the cryptocurrency’s price drop as an early warning of monetary contraction. In his latest analysis, Bonzon raises this debate by posing fundamental questions.

Have investors found the key to measuring liquidity fluctuations in the financial system?

Bonzon points out that recent market dynamics have intensified these questions. He recalls that recently, U.S. stocks experienced a sharp intraday drop after the initial rally triggered by Nvidia’s results was unwound. Although this type of movement is uncommon, he emphasizes that “they are usually followed by strong rebounds.”

In the digital asset space, Bitcoin has entered a marked bearish phase: “It has experienced a sustained downtrend, falling more than 30% from its recent peak.” The price evolution, along with its decoupling from gold, has reopened the debate about its ability to act as a digital equivalent of the precious metal. Bonzon insists that investors must differentiate between short- and long-term correlations, as in the short term the relationship can fluctuate from “significantly positive to significantly negative,” a behavior that intensifies when Bitcoin “trades like a high-beta technology stock” during periods of excessive leverage or deleveraging.

In the long term, however, the CIO asserts that both gold and Bitcoin will tend to move “largely in tandem” as long as Western governments continue to use capital markets for sanctions, an environment that favors “greater structural demand for external assets that hedge against the consequences of such actions.”

Bonzon adds that although Bitcoin and digital assets are among the most sensitive segments to global liquidity, it does not necessarily make the cryptocurrency a reliable leading indicator. He explains that its relatively short history already shows a recognizable pattern: after its halving events, it tends to enter a sustained consolidation phase. Despite this, and in the context of the firm’s Secular Outlook, Julius Baer continues to consider Bitcoin “a viable long-term hedge against fiscal dominance and fiat currency devaluation.”

NVIDIA earnings trigger a rollercoaster in U.S. stock markets

The report contextualizes the recent behavior of traditional markets. U.S. stocks recently suffered an exceptionally volatile session: after a start driven by Nvidia’s results, the S&P 500 “opened more than 1% higher,” only to experience “a massive intraday reversal” and close in negative territory.

The Nasdaq 100 experienced an even more extreme move, with “an unusually wide intraday trading range of more than 4%.” These are very uncommon episodes: “Since 2000, only eight such episodes have occurred,” Bonzon recalls. However, all of them have historically been followed by average rebounds of 16% in the 100 days afterward. Since that session, both benchmark indices have recorded three consecutive days of recovery.

Other indicators also showed signs of stability, such as the NYSE Securities Broker/Dealer Index, which recently rebounded at its 200-day moving average, and the VIX, which, according to the expert, has calmed, trading only slightly above its long-term average of 20.

In fixed income markets, Bonzon notes that the Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate (MOVE) Index, which reflects implied volatility in the U.S. Treasury market, “is behaving well,” staying below 80 points. He also notes that neither nominal nor real U.S. Treasury yields have shown significant movements in recent sessions, while inflation expectations remain stable. A similar stability is observed in the U.S. dollar index, which remains around 100 points, and in gold prices, which continue moving sideways within a range of $4,000 to $4,200 per ounce.

Digital gold or Nasdaq on steroids?

Regarding Bitcoin, Bonzon details that the cryptocurrency “has lost more than 30% of its value from its previous all-time high in early October,” after touching a provisional low of $80,553. At the same time, Bitcoin ETFs are heading toward a record month of outflows.

The CIO mentions that in a recent Financial Times opinion piece titled “The Warning Signal from Bitcoin’s Drop,” Katie Martin wrote that the evolution of Bitcoin and digital asset prices in general is becoming an early warning that markets feel unstable, giving investors, especially leveraged ones, an early signal of liquidity contraction.

The divergence between gold and Bitcoin has led some analysts to conclude that the cryptocurrency is not really digital gold. But Bonzon qualifies that statement as potentially premature: gold investors usually operate without leverage, while a large portion of Bitcoin investors, especially retail, do use leverage. This mismatch explains why, in certain periods, “investing in Bitcoin resembles investing in high-beta IT stocks.”

He also warns that the theory of Bitcoin as a leading liquidity indicator has limits: “If Bitcoin became the new U.S. liquidity indicator followed by everyone, the signal would stop working.”

The argument for long-term co-movement between gold and its digital equivalent remains valid

During his recent trip to Singapore and Hong Kong, Bonzon received numerous questions about the crypto market’s future. He notes that despite the asset’s short history, there is “a distinctive pattern” that usually repeats after each halving, marking the start of “a sustained consolidation phase.”

In the long term, Bonzon expects both gold and Bitcoin “to continue rising as long as Western governments keep instrumentalizing their capital markets for sanctions.” This dynamic would extend the structural demand for external assets that protect against geopolitical intervention.

As a tail risk, the CIO warns that a potential peace agreement in Ukraine that includes the unfreezing of Russian assets could trigger a “sudden profit-taking” in off-system assets.

In the coming months, the high correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. tech stocks is expected to decrease, as it is a phenomenon linked to the current phase of stock market consolidation. Meanwhile, sentiment indicators are “in depressed territory,” and overbought/oversold indicators point to “advanced selling pressure,” leaving room for short-term rebounds.

Structurally, Bonzon states: “Bitcoin should continue to be the original ‘native token,’ the only digital asset capable, in principle, of fulfilling the function of digital gold.” However, he rules out replacing fiat currencies, as it is “embedded in a deflationary monetary system by design and therefore suboptimal as a medium of exchange.”

Nevertheless, Julius Baer maintains its central thesis: “We continue to consider Bitcoin a viable long-term hedge against fiscal dominance and fiat currency devaluation.” The CIO concludes by noting that the next halving is scheduled for mid-2028.

Private Asset ETFs: Key Insights Into a Rapidly Growing Strategy

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

A new wave of ETFs investing in private markets has made headlines over the past year. The sector is still in its early stages but evolving rapidly. The structure bundles traditionally illiquid assets into a historically liquid vehicle. Based on recent work with asset managers exploring these options, Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) has developed a guide analyzing the factors driving the product’s evolution, as well as the opportunities, challenges, limitations, and risks it presents.

What Are Private Market ETFs and Why Are They in the Spotlight?

Unlike most listed assets, private markets, such as private equity, private debt, or private real estate, are typically illiquid. By nature, they are owned by a small group of investors, can be harder to trade, and are usually valued infrequently, often quarterly.

ETFs, in contrast, trade intraday and generally contain listed securities that are also traded throughout the day. By packaging private market assets into an ETF, investors gain exposure to an investment that is traditionally illiquid, costly, and long-term, in a more accessible way.

U.S.-domiciled ETFs are subject to regulatory liquidity requirements that limit investment in illiquid assets to no more than 15% of the fund’s net asset value.

Overall, private markets and ETFs represent two of the fastest-growing areas in the investment sector, consistently capturing an increasing share of capital flows for over a decade.

As an example, BBH cites a survey of private market investors conducted this year, which revealed strong investor confidence: of 500 global investors surveyed, 34% planned to invest in private market ETFs, and 57% sought more information about these products.

Market Context and Growth Drivers

The private market investment landscape is rapidly expanding and converging with another sector megatrend: ETFs.

Growth of Private Markets: Private assets currently represent over $14.8 trillion in committed and deployed capital, projected to reach $20–25 trillion by 2030. Additionally, the number of U.S. public companies has declined by roughly 50% since the 1980s, making private assets a key, often untapped, opportunity for investors historically excluded from these asset classes.
ETF Boom: The U.S. ETF market reached a total net asset value of $11.8 trillion in July 2025, with over 460 new ETFs launched in just the first half of the year, including Apollo’s and State Street Global Advisors’ first public-private credit ETFs.
Retail Access: Historically, retail investors had limited pathways to invest in private assets. Most products were targeted at institutional or high-net-worth investors. ETFs that hold private assets offer everyday investors a means to access private markets, often with minimums as low as a single share.

Several existing ETFs already emphasize connections with alternative and private market investments. Many are innovative, successful, and provide exposure, often indirect, to private assets. However, terminology is important, and BBH defines a private market ETF as one that directly holds private assets, such as private companies, private debt, or private real estate. This includes ETFs holding private companies either directly (e.g., AGIX’s investments in xAI or Anthropic) or via a special purpose vehicle (SPV).

BBH notes that ETFs do not qualify as private market ETFs when:

Alternative vs. Private Markets: “Alternative” is a broader term encompassing a wide variety of investments, including hedge funds. These strategies typically invest mainly in listed securities within a private fund vehicle.
ETFs holding publicly traded investment managers whose main activity is investing in private markets (e.g., Blackstone, Brookfield, Apollo, KKR). These funds invest in listed securities that indirectly gain exposure to private markets through the ongoing business activities of the companies they own.
ETFs invest in listed vehicles, such as business development companies (BDCs), which lend to or hold stakes in private companies.

BBH emphasizes that details matter for understanding regulatory restrictions, operational mechanisms, NAV calculations, valuations, and any relevant discussion regarding potential returns, liquidity, and risk.

Operational Mechanics of Private Market ETFs

Any ETF investing in private assets requires a well-designed valuation policy to manage daily market fluctuations, with triggers specifying when and how private asset holdings should be revalued.

Given the 15% exposure limit to private assets, investment managers must continuously monitor the mix of public and private market assets. Intraday movements in public markets can alter the fund’s overall allocation, so managers need a plan to rebalance the fund accordingly.

New Products on the Market

Recently, two ETFs have launched with an innovative approach: the IG Public & Private Credit ETF (PRIV) and the Short Duration IG Public & Private Credit ETF, both designed to provide greater exposure to private credit.

To achieve this, these ETFs have partnered with Apollo to provide firm, executable intraday offers on the portfolio via a guaranteed capital line backed by Apollo. This mechanism offers reasonable certainty that Apollo will provide liquidity if daily redemptions need to be funded, even for underlying private credit portfolios that would otherwise be difficult or impossible to liquidate during lock-up periods.

Conclusion

ETFs represent an opportunity for both managers and investors. Investment managers can expand distribution and access to private markets while offering broader exposure to a historically illiquid asset class.

Investors can view this from two perspectives:

Institutional investors may view private market ETFs as a means to access the asset class more efficiently, with significantly fewer liquidity obligations.
Retail investors, historically excluded from these assets, now have a pathway to participate in private market investments.

Regardless of product design, the existing 15% limit results in limited exposure to private assets. However, the current administration appears willing to reconsider many related regulations. In August, the SEC removed the 15% limit for registered closed-end funds investing in private funds.

“This is welcome news for the fund community and is likely to drive increased demand for such funds,” the BBH report notes, adding that it also serves as “a potential signal of the administration’s intent to increase access to alternative assets, which could foreshadow future developments in the ETF space.”

Over Five Million New Millionaires Worldwide by 2029

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Average Wealth per Adult Will Continue to Grow Over the Next Five Years, with the United States as the main driver of this expansion, followed by the China region, Latin America, and Oceania, according to the UBS Global Wealth Report 2025. Europe and Southeast Asia are expected to experience solid but more moderate growth, while the Middle East and Africa will remain stable or see slight increases.

According to the latest report from the institution, total personal wealth is expected to show particularly dynamic behavior, with annual growth close to 5% in North America and approximately half that pace in the Middle East and Africa. The momentum will come mainly from rising asset prices and value creation associated with technological innovation in a context of structural transformation.

In this scenario, it is estimated that by 2029 there will be more than five million new millionaires worldwide. This trend will be reflected in the majority of the 56 markets analyzed, with no distinction between developed or emerging economies, large or small, dynamic or stagnant.

One of the Most Striking Findings of the Study Is That the Evolution of Wealth Does Not Always Move in Parallel With Economic Growth. At Times, It Far Outpaces It; at Others, It Lags Behind. Even Within Regions Showing Strong Macroeconomic Performance, There Can Be Areas Where Wealth Accumulation Is Weak or Stagnant.

Added to this is the fact that asset prices do not necessarily follow the same trajectory as GDP, and that the private sector—where individual wealth is concentrated—does not move at the same pace as the public sector, which is particularly relevant in economies where the latter holds considerable weight.

Another Key Factor Going Forward Will Be the Individual Mobility of Wealth, Driven by Intergenerational Transfers. In This Regard, the Size of the Population or Economy Is Not the Only Thing That Matters: Some Smaller Countries Could Surpass Much Larger Nations in Transfer Volume, Even When Demographic Projections Would Suggest Otherwise.

UBS Concludes That, While These Scenarios Are Subject to Multiple Factors and Could Evolve in Various Ways, the Initial Signs of Growth Already Observed Provide a Solid Foundation for Reflecting on the Path That Global Wealth Will Take in the Coming Years.

New York Life Appoints Joao Magallanes Canals as Wealth Management Executive

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

New York Life has appointed Joao Magallanes Canals as Wealth Management Executive for its Boston Atlantic General Office, with the goal of strengthening its value proposition in wealth management for high-net-worth clients in the United States. Joao Magallanes, an economist with a degree from Universidad del Pacífico (Lima, Peru) and a Level II candidate in the CFA Program, brings nearly a decade of experience in wealth management and capital markets.

“Joao’s appointment enhances our ability to serve families and entrepreneurs with sophisticated wealth management and planning needs. His analytical rigor, market knowledge, and client-centric approach align perfectly with New York Life’s culture,” stated representatives from the Boston Atlantic General Office.

For his part, Joao Magallanes Canals noted: “I am excited to contribute my experience in portfolio structuring across multiple banking institutions, in tailored investment solutions, and in intergenerational planning to help our clients preserve, grow, and transfer their wealth with discipline and purpose.”

Extensive Experience

He began his career in the Market Risk division at Banco de Crédito del Perú (BCP), later joining the Fixed Income and FX Desk at Credicorp Capital Bolsa. He subsequently moved to BCP’s Private Banking division and was later promoted within Credicorp Capital from Senior Analyst to Investment Advisor. Both BCP and Credicorp Capital are part of Credicorp Ltd., the leading financial holding company in Peru. After consolidating his experience within the group, he joined SURA Investments, part of the Colombian conglomerate Grupo SURA, where he served as a Private Banker, advising high-net-worth clients on global investment strategies.

Throughout his career, Joao, who is trilingual (Spanish, English, and Portuguese), has advised HNW/UHNW and institutional investors in portfolio structuring, asset allocation, and bespoke solutions (both discretionary and non-discretionary), in addition to providing independent private advisory services to large estates. His recognitions include the ALMA Award and the Best Investment Advisor – Corporate Clients award at Credicorp Capital.

From the Dollar to Real Yield: A Look at Emerging Markets

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

“The Composite Risk Premium in the U.S.—Equities, Sovereign Debt, and Credit—is the Lowest Since 2000 and Points to Below-Average Returns in the Coming Years. Moreover, We Expect Mid-Cap Domestic Companies and Value-Oriented Stocks in Europe to Outperform the MSCI World Index, Along With Certain Growth Companies in the U.S. and, Above All, Emerging Markets,” Says Luca Paolini, Chief Strategist at Pictet AM.

In Paolini’s view, over the medium term, there are additional arguments in favor of emerging markets beyond benefiting from their secular growth and attractive valuations. “They Should Benefit From a Weaker Dollar, a Trend Toward Lower Real Interest Rates, and Higher Commodity Prices. Uncertainty About Global Trade Agreements Encourages Greater Investment and Flows Between These Economies,” he adds.

Furthermore, as is the case in other regions, the chief strategist believes that many emerging market companies are well positioned to take advantage of the expansion of artificial intelligence. “Emerging Asia Is at the Forefront of the Technological Revolution With a Growing Group of Companies Playing an Indispensable Role in the Global AI Supply Chain (Such as Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturers) and Others That May Challenge U.S. Leaders Due to Scalability and Monetization (Such as China’s Hyperscalers). India Relies Less on Foreign Investment Flows, Which Should Lead to Lower Volatility, as Its Domestic Investors Hold 18.5% of the Equity Market—the Highest Figure in Over Two Decades,” comments Paolini.

Tariffs and Supply Chains

According to Martin Schulz, Director of the International Equity Group at Federated Hermes, we are witnessing regional spheres of influence strengthen as geopolitical relations evolve, which encourages investors to pay closer attention to opportunities in emerging markets.

“Instead of Globalization, We Are Now Seeing Regionalization and Groupings Around Centers of Power, Alliances, Monetary Blocs, and Shared Interests. Global Trade Will Continue, but Likely on a Smaller Scale. However, Not Everything Is Changing. We Are Not Facing a Repeat of the Cold War, Where Trade Flows Across the Iron Curtain Were Virtually Nonexistent. For Now, China and the United States Have Put Their Rivalry on Hold: China Needs to Address a Weak Economy Mired in Deflation, and the Trump Administration Needs to Focus on Domestic Politics. I Don’t See Apple or Tesla Leaving China. Supply Chains Are Becoming More Local Than Before. We’re Also Seeing Chinese Companies Produce for the Local Market in Europe and Potentially Even in the United States,” says Schulz, explaining their view of the global landscape.

He also notes that in 2026, numerous elections will be held around the world, especially in South America. According to his analysis, this may alter expectations and increase short-term uncertainty but could lead to greater long-term stability. “In China, the Trade War With the United States Has Been Resolved for Now, Giving the Country the Opportunity to Focus on Economic Stimulus While Implementing Its Next Five-Year Plan. As Manufacturing Continues to Move Out of China Due to Costs and Trade Restrictions, This Should Benefit Many Other Asian Economies. Finally, We Believe That the Global Monetary Easing Cycle Will Support Emerging Markets Overall,” he argues.

A New Frontier for Real Yields

This macro context is complemented by a key data point: after more than a decade of underperformance compared to developed markets, emerging markets recorded some of the best performances globally in 2025, with gains exceeding 30%. In fact, equity indexes doubled the return of the S&P 500, and fixed income—both in local currencies and in U.S. dollars (USD)—also generated significant returns. For Mauro Ratto, Co-Founder and CIO at Plenisfer Investments (Part of Generali Investments), this is the strongest argument in favor of including emerging assets in portfolios.

“In Many Ways, This Was Atypical Behavior: While a Weak Dollar Typically Favors Emerging Markets—Given Their High Proportion of Dollar-Denominated Debt—New U.S. Tariffs Should Have Been an Obstacle. However, These Economies Showed a Surprising Degree of Adaptability in an Unfavorable Global Environment Marked by Widespread Geopolitical Tensions and a Weak Global Economic Cycle,” acknowledges Ratto.

According to the expert, emerging markets remain a highly diverse and heterogeneous universe, but most countries share a common trait: the pursuit, over several years, of fiscal and monetary orthodoxy. “While the West Grapples With Record Levels of Public Debt and Growing Deficits, Many Emerging Countries Today Exhibit Strong Budget Discipline, Monetary Policies That Have Remained Restrictive, and Contained Inflation,” he highlights.

For the asset manager, emerging markets not only represent a potential source of return but also an opportunity for diversification and protection in the event of a correction in developed markets, which today face a significant concentration risk in the U.S. technology sector. “This Risk Also Exists Within Emerging Market Indexes—Where the Top Six Companies Belong to the Technology Sector and Account for More Than a Quarter of the Index—but Diversification Remains Substantial: Investors Gain Exposure Both to Chinese Companies Competing Directly With Major U.S. Tech Firms and to Companies Operating in Key Nodes of the AI Value Chain, Such as Chip Manufacturers or Producers of Critical Components Like High-Bandwidth Memory. Furthermore, the Opportunity Set Extends Well Beyond This Theme—Especially in India, ASEAN, and Selectively in Latin America,” concludes Ratto.

The Fed Maintains Its Independence, but the Debate and Risks Will Persist

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

After a 2025 marked by tensions between Fed Chair Jerome Powell and U.S. President Donald Trump, it was inevitable to raise the question of whether the Fed has lost its independence. In the opinion of our readers and social media followers (53%), the U.S. monetary institution is still following its own guidance. Additionally, it is noteworthy that 20% believe Trump is influencing the FOMC, and 13% do not believe that central banks are independent at all.

The Debate Over the Fed’s Independence Will Remain Alive

The debate over the independence of the Fed will remain ongoing, as it extends beyond the figure of Jerome Powell himself, whose term as Chair ends in May 2026. According to Felipe Mendoza, CEO of IMB Capital Quants, the discussion around his succession is intensifying. “Donald Trump will interview Christopher Waller for the position, while Kevin Warsh’s odds have risen to 41%, compared to the 90% that Kevin Hassett had at the beginning of December. Trump has stated that the next Fed Chair should consult him on interest rates and that he wants to see them at 1% or lower within a year. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, has said that Warsh would make a great Fed Chair. In this context, White House advisor Kevin Hassett argued that economic data points to inflation heading toward the 2% target and that, although Trump has strong views, the Fed must maintain its independence.”

Additionally, according to Álvaro Peró, Head of Fixed Income Investments at Capital Group, the debate surrounding the Fed is a clear example of a broader trend experienced in 2025. “Significant shifts have occurred in the macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape. Principles that have underpinned the global economy for decades—such as free trade, globalization, and central bank independence—are being called into question,” Peró explains.

The Risks of Losing Independence

According to experts at Vontobel, compromising the Fed’s independence entails significant risks. “When a central bank’s credibility weakens, markets stop interpreting its policies through the lens of economic data and begin to view them from a political perspective. This shift first becomes apparent in expectations. Survey-based measures may appear stable for some time, as both households and professional analysts tend to adjust their views gradually. However, market prices react more quickly. Investors incorporate an inflation risk premium into their base outlook, which is why implied inflation rates often exceed survey-based expectations once credibility is in doubt,” they explain.

In their view, uncertainty around the central bank’s reaction function raises the term premium on longer-dated maturities. “Long-term rates begin to reflect additional compensation for potential policy errors and inflation volatility, rather than just the expected path of short-term interest rates. If fiscal objectives—such as the desire to keep financing costs low relative to nominal growth—begin to influence monetary policy, decisions may tilt toward financial expediency. While this may ease short-term funding pressures for the public sector, it functions as an inflationary tax on savers and raises the required returns on private assets,” they add.

As history shows, financial conditions tend to follow a predictable sequence. That is, the yield curve steepens as the short end responds to a more accommodative monetary stance, while the long end shows resistance. Credit spreads settle at higher levels as lenders price in increased uncertainty. “The dollar tends to strengthen during periods of stress when liquidity tightens in a crisis, but it then weakens if real yields are suppressed and the policy framework appears less sound,” the asset manager’s experts conclude.

The Two Uncomfortable Questions About AI That Investors Face

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

In presenting their outlooks for 2026, all international asset managers have devoted significant attention to artificial intelligence, both as an investment opportunity and as a key driver of economies and global growth.

“AI is a long-term wave, not just a theme. A technological wave—AI is the fourth wave after mainframes, personal computers connected to the Internet, and the mobile cloud—is defined by the fact that it affects all aspects of the economy. It requires investment across every layer of the tech stack, from silicon—semiconductors—to platforms, devices, and models, and every company becomes, in some way, a user of AI. These waves take several years to evolve, and in the case of AI, the pace of capacity development is constrained by deglobalization, permitting, energy availability, construction limitations, and availability within the computing supply chain,” emphasize Alison Porter, Graeme Clark, and Richard Clode, portfolio managers at Janus Henderson.

According to Janus Henderson portfolio managers, there is a circular problem, as the limiting factor for demand in computing power has been the available capacity to train and develop new models. “As we move from generative AI to agentic AI, more reasoning and memory capacity is needed to provide greater context. This requires significantly more computing power to increase token generation (units of data processed by AI models). We are seeing areas such as physical AI rapidly developing, with the expansion of autonomous driving and robotics testing worldwide. In short, looking ahead to 2026 and 2027, we believe demand for computing power will continue to outpace supply,” they argue.

Are We in an AI Bubble?

In contrast to this highly positive scenario, investors remain attentive to the ongoing debate over whether we are currently in an AI bubble. According to Karen Watkin, multi-asset portfolio manager at AllianceBernstein, the defining feature of this bull market is its narrow leadership. “AI-driven technology companies have delivered extraordinary gains, creating a K-shaped market: a few large winners while many are left behind. This concentration drives index returns but introduces fragility. The U.S. economy is asymmetrically exposed: wealthier households hold most of the equity and sustain consumption, so an AI correction could impact spending and potentially lead the economy into a recession,” she explains.

Watkin believes that, for now, fundamentals offer some reassurance: earnings growth—not just multiple expansion—has driven returns. According to her analysis, hyperscaler capex—though extraordinarily high—is largely funded by strong cash flows rather than debt, but signs of increasing leverage and debt issuance are being monitored. “We also observe more structural risks: circular funding patterns, such as repeated cross-investments and successive corporate transactions, which can introduce fragility. And while adoption trends are promising, imbalances between supply and demand, energy bottlenecks, and the risk of obsolescence could challenge the AI-driven economy,” she states.

The AllianceBernstein expert adds that elevated valuations do not guarantee poor short-term returns, but they do increase the risk of declines: “We believe that narrow leadership warrants greater diversification; asset classes such as low volatility equities can offer defensive exposure and attractive valuations, with a potential tailwind if yields fall.”

What Are the Implications of a Correction?

Until now, investment in artificial intelligence has been primarily financed through corporate cash flows and venture capital. However, as hyperscalers seek to sustain exponential growth in model size, data center construction, and chip supply, debt financing has begun to gain prominence once again.

With major U.S. equity indices becoming increasingly concentrated in AI leaders, in the view of the experts at Quality Growth (a Vontobel boutique), a significant correction could ripple through the economy not via layoffs or failed AI projects, but through the negative wealth effect caused by falling asset prices.

“This dynamic would be similar to what followed the dot-com bubble in 2000, when the decline in equity value disproportionately affected higher-income households and, consequently, overall consumer spending,” they explain.

In their view, a second transmission channel has already taken shape: capital expenditure in AI as a main driver of U.S. GDP. “By the end of 2025, technology-related capital expenditure (capex) is estimated to account for more than half of the quarterly growth in gross domestic product (GDP). This implies that the same force that has driven markets upward could become a drag if investment expectations are adjusted. In this way, AI has become both a tailwind and a potential vulnerability for the macroeconomic outlook in 2026,” conclude the team at Quality Growth.

Trian Fund Management and General Catalyst Acquire Janus Henderson

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Last Major Corporate Deal in the Asset Management Industry Before the End of 2025
Janus Henderson Group plc, Trian Fund Management, L.P. and its affiliated funds (Trian), and General Catalyst Group Management, LLC and its affiliated funds (General Catalyst) have announced that they have entered into a definitive agreement under which Janus Henderson will be acquired by Trian and General Catalyst in an all-cash transaction, with an equity valuation of approximately $7.4 billion. The investor group includes, among others, the strategic investors Qatar Investment Authority and Sun Hung Kai & Co. Limited.

Under the terms of the agreement, shareholders who do not already own or control shares through Trian will receive $49.00 per share in cash, representing an 18% premium over Janus Henderson’s unaffected closing share price on October 24, 2025, the last trading day before the initial proposal from Trian and General Catalyst was made public.

The Key Players

The asset manager recalls that Trian, an investment firm with extensive experience in investing and operating within the asset management sector, currently owns 20.6% of Janus Henderson’s outstanding shares and has been a shareholder since 2020, with board representation since 2022. For its part, General Catalyst is a global investment and transformation firm focused on applying artificial intelligence to enhance business operations. They note that this will be one of several transactions that Trian and General Catalyst teams have undertaken jointly.

Additionally, they clarify that, as a private company, Janus Henderson would continue to be led by the current management team, with Ali Dibadj as CEO, and would maintain its main presence in both London (England) and Denver (Colorado).

According to Janus Henderson, shortly after receiving the proposal from Trian and General Catalyst, the company’s Board of Directors formed a Special Committee, comprised of independent directors not affiliated with Trian or General Catalyst.

“The transaction was unanimously approved and recommended by the Special Committee after evaluating the deal with Trian and General Catalyst and completing a thorough review process. At the Special Committee’s recommendation, the Board subsequently approved the transaction by unanimous vote,” they stated.

Main Reactions

Following this announcement, John Cassaday, Chairman of the Board and Chair of the Special Committee, stated: “After a careful review of the proposed transaction and its alternatives, we have determined that this deal is in the best interest of Janus Henderson, its shareholders, clients, employees, and other stakeholders, and offers attractive certainty and cash value to our public shareholders, with a significant premium over the unaffected share price.”

Meanwhile, Ali Dibadj, CEO of Janus Henderson, said: “We are pleased with Trian and General Catalyst’s interest in partnering with us, which is a strong endorsement of our long-term strategy. Throughout our 91-year history, Janus Henderson has been both a public and private company at various times, and has never lost focus on investing—together with our clients and employees—in a more promising future. Through this partnership with Trian and General Catalyst, we are confident that we will continue investing in our product offering, client services, technology, and talent to accelerate our growth and deliver differentiated insights, disciplined investment strategies, and top-tier service to our clients. This transaction is a testament to Janus Henderson’s employees worldwide, who have executed our strategy of protecting and growing our core business, amplifying our strengths, and diversifying where it makes sense, always putting our clients first.”

Nelson Peltz, CEO and Founding Partner of Trian, added: “Our team at Trian has successfully invested in and driven growth at many iconic public and private companies over the years. As a significant shareholder of Janus Henderson and with board representation since 2022, we are proud of the company’s performance in recent years, led by Ali and his outstanding team. We see a growing opportunity to accelerate investment in people, technology, and clients. The partnership with General Catalyst enables us to bring to Janus Henderson our shared entrepreneurial spirit and complementary strengths in operational excellence and technological transformation. We look forward to working closely with Ali and the JHG team, as well as with Hemant and the General Catalyst team, to build a best-in-class business.”

From General Catalyst, its CEO Hemant Taneja added: “We see a tremendous opportunity to partner with Janus Henderson’s management team to enhance the Company’s operations and customer value proposition through the use of AI, in order to drive growth and transform the business. We are also excited to partner with Trian, with whom we share a long-term vision for success in creating additional value for Janus Henderson, a top-tier organization.”

Finally, Mohammed Saif Al-Sowaidi, CEO of QIA, stated: “QIA is pleased to be part of this agreement to take Janus Henderson private. As a long-term financial investor, we look forward to working with our partners at Trian and General Catalyst to support Janus Henderson in the next phase of its impressive growth story.”

Transaction Details

They explained that the transaction is expected to be completed by mid-2026 and is subject to customary closing conditions, including obtaining the relevant regulatory approvals, client consents, and approval from Janus Henderson shareholders.

The transaction will be financed in part through investment vehicles managed by Trian and General Catalyst, backed by funding commitments from global investors, including Qatar Investment Authority and Sun Hung Kai & Co. Limited, as well as MassMutual and others, along with the retention of Janus Henderson shares currently held by Trian and related parties.

How to Manage Talent in the Asset and Wealth Management Industry

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

According to the latest report by Morgan Stanley and Oliver Wyman, AI tools and generative automated models have shifted from tasks typically handled by the middle and back offices—such as report preparation and operational controls—to front-office functions.

“While these advancements initially benefited employees by gradually enhancing their productivity, they are now starting to translate into efficiency gains for the company, with experiences indicating up to a 30% improvement in analytical activities,” the document states. This evolution represents an opportunity due to the efficiency it brings, but also a challenge in how to leverage that efficiency and integrate it with professionals in the sector.

The Paths of AI-Driven Efficiency

The report outlines two paths companies can take to capitalize on this efficiency. First, it suggests reinvesting efficiency gains to enhance analysis, arguing that “AI frees up analysts’ time, allowing them to increase the depth and breadth of research, which ultimately enables stronger alpha generation.” Second, it points to optimization as a way to create leaner cost structures.

“Instead of reinvesting time, some companies are reducing their analyst base and relying on AI to handle repetitive and lower-value tasks. Reinvesting efficiency has the advantage of maintaining a stable base of analysts without disrupting the traditional career path of analysts. However, it is likely to reshape their role and the associated required skills: proficiency in AI and automation tools, and the ability to generate original insights based on AI-generated results. It also challenges the learning curve for junior analysts, as they would be required to oversee AI-generated outputs without first mastering the underlying analysis themselves,” the report notes.

Furthermore, it acknowledges that reducing the number of junior analysts may provide immediate cost savings but warns that, in the medium term, it creates the challenge of the “hourglass effect”: a narrowing at the mid-senior level, which weakens the succession pipeline for senior analyst and portfolio management positions. “Just as many firms are actively seeking to ‘juniorize’ teams to control costs, this exacerbates the seniorization trend. Already, portfolio managers are becoming increasingly senior, with 50% of them having more than 25 years of experience (compared to 39% in 2020),” the report states.

“In This Context, Human Resources Functions Must Adapt Quickly and Work Hand-in-Hand With Investment and Technology Teams to Redesign Workforce Planning, Integrate AI Capabilities Into Learning Pathways, and Structure Sustainable Succession Strategies That Ensure Long-Term Organizational Resilience,” the report proposes in its conclusions.

Attracting and Retaining New Talent

The document argues that the growing influence of AI in this industry requires asset managers to seek new and scarce skill sets outside the core group of finance graduates. Furthermore, as both the asset management and wealth management industries shift toward a more client-centric model, each must increasingly cultivate a workforce that excels in relationship-building, emotional intelligence, and cultural sensitivity.

“While this broadens the scope of potential hires beyond traditional financial and mathematical backgrounds, it also forces asset managers to compete for these more transferable skills with broader industries (particularly tech companies). Therefore, firms must renew their value proposition to attract this wider audience,” the document states.

In addition to attracting and retaining talent, the conclusions assert that HR departments in investment firms need to rethink their approaches to people development in order to adapt to the hybrid “human + AI” mode of work. As explained, “teaching practical AI knowledge must be balanced with building stronger judgment skills. Leaders, in particular, may need support in change management, cross-functional collaboration (investment, data, engineering), and the ethical use of AI.”

In this regard, the report presents a clear proposal: “Rotations, hands-on AI labs, and mentorship pairings between senior portfolio managers and technologists can be used alongside traditional HR approaches to preserve deep expertise while building the leaders of the future.”

Finally, the report emphasizes that scaling AI within traditionally conservative asset and wealth management cultures will require a deliberate cultural shift. “Existing cultural profiles will shape how quickly and widely AI is adopted, so tailoring interventions to current and lived cultures will be more effective. Designing the workforces and cultures of the future will also require activating the right incentive levers and creating regular rituals, such as recognizing AI-driven improvements in performance reviews, internal showcases of AI achievements, and leaders visibly modeling new behaviors,” the report concludes.

How to Meet the Investment Objectives of Billionaires?

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

The Aspirations of Heirs, the Challenges of New Generations, and Increased Longevity Are the Three Main Issues Billionaires Seek to Address to Sustain Their Wealth. According to the Billionaire Ambitions Report 2025, prepared by UBS, this client profile wants their children to succeed independently and places more importance on personal achievement than on reliance on inherited wealth.

In an era in which entrepreneurs often appoint professional managers or sell their businesses rather than pass them on to the next generation, independent success is particularly valued. In this context, the report reveals that 82% of billionaires with children hope to see them develop the skills and values needed to succeed on their own, rather than relying solely on inherited wealth. In addition, 67% hope their children will pursue their own passions, and 55% want them to use their wealth to make a positive impact in the world.

At the same time, a significant minority expects their heirs to continue the family business: more than four in ten (43%) state they would like to see their children continue growing the family’s operating company, brand, or assets, thereby ensuring the continuity of the family legacy.

A New Social Reality

This goal faces two challenges linked to today’s societal dynamics: the values of new generations and increased longevity. On the first factor, the report notes that billionaires see younger generations as more inclined to value holistic aspects: they say the new generations place greater importance on technological advancement and innovation, lifestyle, and impact investing than their own generation.

According to the survey, 75% consider technology and AI to be a pressing challenge that must be addressed, while 55% point to climate change. “However, opinions vary by region: billionaires in EMEA prioritize climate change and poverty and inequality; those in the Americas focus on technology and AI followed by education; and those in Asia-Pacific are primarily concerned with technology and AI,” the document clarifies.

Regarding the impact of longevity, billionaires believe that living longer may complicate the way they manage family wealth. In a shift that could have far-reaching implications, more than four in ten (44%) expect to live significantly longer than just 10 years ago, and more than a third (37%) expect to live somewhat longer.

“As a result, more than half (58%) of those who expect to live longer plan to regularly review and update their wills, trusts, and beneficiaries. Over four in ten (42%) plan to make—or have already made—longer-term investments. Family offices are also likely to take on a more prominent role in family affairs as the first generation ages,” the report concludes.

Asset Allocation of Billionaires

The big question is what impact these trends are having on asset allocation and how billionaires invest. The UBS report reveals that despite market volatility in 2025, North America remains the leading investment destination (63%), followed by Western Europe (40%) and Greater China (34%). 42% of billionaires plan to increase their exposure to emerging market equities, while more than four in ten (43%) are considering expanding their exposure to developed markets.

Notably, over the next 12 months, nearly two-thirds (63%) of respondents believe North America offers the greatest profit opportunity, down from four in five (80%) last year. “Looking at a five-year horizon, the proportion is slightly higher (65%), almost unchanged from the 2024 survey (68%),” UBS notes.

The report states that as the short-term appeal of North America has waned, that of other major destinations has grown: 40% believe Western Europe offers one of the greatest 12-month opportunities, ahead of Greater China (34%) and Asia-Pacific (excluding Greater China) (33%). “All of these represent significant increases compared to 2024, when fewer than one in five (18%) saw potential in Western Europe, just over one in ten (11%) in Greater China, and a quarter (25%) in Asia-Pacific (excluding Greater China),” the report explains.

Asia and Private Markets

Looking five years ahead, around half of billionaires view Asia-Pacific (excluding Greater China) (51%) and Greater China (48%) as among the most attractive investment destinations. “Perhaps reflecting their widely reported economic and political challenges, just under a third (30%) lean toward Western Europe,” UBS points out.

The report notes that in a context of renewed confidence in Greater China and Asia-Pacific overall, more than four in ten (42%) billionaires plan to increase their exposure to emerging market equities over the next 12 months, where returns have begun to recover after a prolonged period of underperformance compared to developed markets. In contrast, almost none (2%) of the billionaires surveyed intend to reduce their exposure. Meanwhile, in developed market equities, more than four in ten (43%) intend to increase their exposure, although nearly one in ten (7%) plan to reduce it.

Views on Private Markets

Another key finding of the report is that views on private markets are mixed: 49% plan to increase their direct exposure to private equity, while 20% plan to reduce it. 33% intend to increase exposure to private debt, while 22% aim to reduce it. As for hedge funds, more than four in ten (43%) billionaires intend to raise their exposure (compared to 18% who plan to reduce it). According to the report, “some long-short equity hedge funds may be well positioned to benefit from the current wide and persistent divergence in individual stock performance.”

Meanwhile, infrastructure and gold / precious metals are two areas billionaires are turning to in an effort to diversify their portfolios. “More than a third (35%) are increasing their exposure to infrastructure and nearly a third (32%) to gold / precious metals. Fixed income remains a relatively stable area for now. Most billionaires plan to keep their exposure to developed market fixed income (52%) and/or emerging market fixed income (66%) unchanged over the next 12 months,” the report states.