New Geopolitical and Monetary Order: Amundi Outlines the Key Investment Themes for 2026
| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios
Amundi recently held its World Investment Forum 2026, titled “Age of Empires?”, where several leading figures from the worlds of economics and finance explored the major macro trends currently shaping the global landscape, as well as the investment opportunities they present.
The event opened with Valérie Baudson, CEO of Amundi, who shared her outlook for the coming year and discussed the firm’s strategic plan. Baudson highlighted the accelerating fragmentation of the multilateral order and the “evident” competition for critical resources, technological supremacy and the race to develop AI capabilities.
On the economic front, she pointed to the resilience of the global economy, which is becoming increasingly diversified; reaffirmed Europe’s resilience and the slowdown in U.S. growth; and noted the divergence within the Chinese economy. In this context, according to Baudson, “fiscal and monetary policy, both in developed and emerging markets, has become increasingly important,” while markets “continue to offer opportunities, provided you know where to look.”
As a result, “in the age of empires, geopolitics has regained primacy over economics.” The relationship between the United States and China will continue along a path of uneasy coexistence, but Europe “can act as a balancing force,” and as the world adapts to the energy crisis, “we are entering a new geoeconomic regime.”
Overall, Baudson believes the U.S. economy is likely to remain strong, although inflationary pressures will persist, “testing the monetary policy of the new Federal Reserve Chair.” In Europe, she expects growth to remain moderate this year, but over the longer term the agenda will revolve around “greater spending on defense and infrastructure, more resilient supply chains and progress in the energy transition.” Asia, meanwhile, will continue to display “multiple pillars of growth,” with Baudson highlighting China and India in particular, while paying special attention to countries dependent on oil and gas imports.
“Markets will adapt to this new reality while continuing to offer opportunities for investors. Artificial intelligence, which was once primarily a technological phenomenon, is now an energy phenomenon that is transforming the competitive landscape,” she said, adding that cybersecurity “will remain a risk we must keep firmly in mind, as will the cost of usage.”
Baudson also emphasized the “quiet but persistent questioning” of U.S. sovereign assets as a pillar of global stability. As “regional dynamics matter increasingly,” diversification “must also take into account currency, region and sector, as well as supply chain exposure and energy security.”
In this environment, Baudson said Amundi’s mission “is clear: to provide clients with resilient portfolios capable of capturing the transformative opportunities ahead.”
From a business perspective, the CEO detailed that retirement solutions and the digitalization of savings are the firm’s two priority growth drivers. To achieve this, Amundi has set two objectives: supporting new digital players and helping banks accelerate their digital transition, with the goal of doubling the number of digital partners by 2028.
Geographically, the firm is focusing on Asia, where it aims to reach €150 billion in investment inflows by 2028. It also plans to “significantly increase market share in Northern Europe, from the UK to Germany,” while noting that its strategic plan also calls for “a stronger presence in high-potential regions such as Latin America.”
According to Baudson, achieving these goals will require innovation in securitization. She highlighted the launch of the first tokenized money market fund and reaffirmed Amundi’s commitment to remaining a leader in responsible investing. She also referenced innovation in both passive and active ETFs, as well as the expansion of technology and digital services through Amundi Technology.
Janet Yellen
Following her opening remarks, Baudson held a conversation with Janet Yellen, former Chair of the Federal Reserve and former U.S. Treasury Secretary, who admitted that the most challenging period of her career was the phase of financial instability, during which she felt like a true “firefighter” dealing with problems created by an “unregulated shadow banking system.”
Yellen acknowledged that concerns about the energy shock “are dominant,” but said the Fed is monitoring inflation appropriately and does not expect an interest rate hike in the coming months, while the possibility of a rate cut has “virtually disappeared.”
She also stated that she had “never before seen threats to central bank independence that come close to those we have witnessed over the past year,” noting that central banks were granted independence so they could focus on price stability and resist pressure from elected political leaders seeking interest rate policies that help manage public debt. In the United States, she said, the interest burden has become “genuinely problematic.”
Regarding the labor market, Yellen said that those who understand AI best “are very optimistic about productivity gains,” but she also noted that productivity improvements often take time to materialize.
“Sometimes it can take decades. AI may move faster, but there could still be a lag,” she said.
Bullard and Trichet
James Bullard, former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, and Jean-Claude Trichet, former President of the European Central Bank, completed the lineup of prominent speakers at the forum, focusing on the evolving monetary order.
Bullard argued that governments appear reluctant to raise taxes or control spending, which in his view will eventually create “problems at some point in the future,” with implications for central bank independence.
“We are approaching an unfavorable policy mix similar to what we saw in the 1970s, when undisciplined governments and central banks, lacking a coherent plan and inflation targets, combined with extensive exchange-rate manipulation, generated substantial volatility and ultimately numerous recessions across many countries,” he said.
At the same time, he encouraged policymakers to “do everything possible” to promote technological progress and rising living standards, while avoiding political developments that “take us back to a past that did not work.”
Bullard also addressed central bank projections. While he described scenario analysis as “useful” and helpful in “visualizing possible paths, pricing markets and calculating returns under different conditions,” he emphasized its limitations and argued that assessing future risks requires collaboration between central banks and the private sector.
For his part, Trichet described Europe’s role in today’s fragmented geopolitical landscape as “very important.”
“Perhaps I am too optimistic, so I should be cautious,” he said, before noting that the four currencies issued by the major central banks of the advanced economies—the U.S. dollar, euro, yen and pound sterling—share the same definition of price stability.
“In my view, this is extremely important,” he said, arguing that since the explosion of retail finance, “this represents the most dramatic change in the international monetary system since the end of the modern era.”
“That makes me somewhat more optimistic about our ability, despite all the challenges, to preserve both price stability and financial stability,” Trichet concluded.
