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Global Asset Managers Demand Fiscal Adjustment Following Lula’s Victory, but See Opportunities in Brazil

Photo courtesyLula and Geraldo Alckmin celebrate reelection in São Paulo, October 25, 2026. Ricardo Stuckert / Flickr Lula Oficial (CC BY-SA 4.0)

The reelection of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva last Sunday (25) led international banks and asset managers to revise their outlook for Brazilian assets, following weeks of positioning favored toward a victory by Flávio Bolsonaro. In the analyses of these firms, the central concern is the government’s ability to present a sufficient fiscal adjustment to stabilize public debt. However, short-term caution coexists with assessments that the price correction may open opportunities in equities and fixed income.

Lula won Sunday’s (25) runoff with 51.79% of the valid votes, compared to 48.21% for Flávio Bolsonaro, according to the Superior Electoral Court. For the firms consulted, the outcome contradicted the scenario priced in after the first round. Investors’ focus now shifts to the composition of the economic team, the consistency of fiscal measures, and the ability to pass them through Congress.

Pressure on assets materialized concretely during Monday’s trading session. In a statement sent to the press, B3 confirmed the activation of the circuit breaker, with trading suspended for 30 minutes. The exchange reported a resumption via auction from 10:30 to 10:35. Brazilian financial markets reacted on Monday to the reelection of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as president of Brazil with a rise in yields on dollar-denominated sovereign bonds, a sharp depreciation of the real against the U.S. dollar, and a 17% plunge in the country’s stock exchange. Specifically, the yield on 10-year notes climbed to 6.478%, representing an increase of around 20 basis points from Friday’s close.

“From here on, the fundamental issue is not growth, but fiscal credibility,” states Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio manager at Natixis IM Solutions. His assessment is that new spending initiatives without a convincing debt plan could make sovereign financing more expensive and reduce room for interest rate cuts.

The Reversal of the Election Bet

Thomas Haugaard, portfolio manager on the hard-currency emerging market debt team at Janus Henderson, believes the surprise reveals an asymmetry in positioning. Even with polls indicating a tight race, the external debt market had largely priced in a Bolsonaro victory. “The election bet was already priced in, whereas the risk of a Lula victory was not,” he wrote.

In Haugaard’s assessment, the weakness of the real is an important transmission channel for the shock: depreciation can raise inflation expectations and local interest rates, increase government interest expenses, and worsen fiscal pressures. A lasting recovery in spreads would depend on recurring spending reforms and a credible debt trajectory.

This reading is shared by Thierry Larose, portfolio manager and analyst at Vontobel. In a commentary distributed before the market open, he projected sell-offs, higher interest rates, and a weakening real, with the potential reversal of post-first-round gains. “We believe the Lula government will also have no choice but to adopt fiscal consolidation measures,” he states. The doubt, he adds, is whether they will be sufficient to restore debt sustainability.

Larose sees, however, limits to a disorderly adjustment: the Central Bank in foreign exchange and the Ministry of Finance in public debt have, in his view, the capacity to contain chaotic movements. Kristin Ceva, emerging debt manager at Payden & Rygel, also associates the initial pressure with the unwinding of positions built in anticipation of a fiscal shift.

What Is Needed to Restore Confidence

UBS Global Wealth Management assesses that available information does not yet show a concrete adjustment sufficient to sustain the revaluation of Brazilian assets since the first round. In the report signed by Alejo Czerwonko, Luciano Telo, Solange Srour, Ronaldo Patah, and Debora Nogueira, the bank works with a return of equities, currencies, and interest rates to pre-first-round levels, allowing for temporary deterioration beyond that point.

The institution outlines three conditions to stabilize confidence: a package with quantified measures; alignment of the adjustment effort with campaign commitments estimated at 300 billion reais; and a viable pathway for congressional approval before year-end. The report points to public debt above 80% of GDP and a fiscal deficit near 10% of GDP as part of the initial hurdles for the new term. For currencies, UBS presents 5.40 BRL per dollar as an initial depreciation benchmark, without ruling out sharper initial moves. This is a bank scenario, not a closing price. The firm also considers that a delay in fiscal consolidation could slow the Selic rate-cutting cycle, especially if exchange rate pressures arise.

Mali Chivakul, emerging markets economist at J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable AM, expects Lula to seek to reassure investors with an appointment at the Finance Ministry that inspires confidence and with early announcements to stabilize debt. Even so, she foresees a period of weakness and volatility leading into the start of the presidential term. Performance in 2027 will depend, according to her analysis, on a fiscal correction perceived as lasting and credible.

At Fidelity International, Andressa Tezine, senior sovereign debt analyst, sees limited room for immediate fiscal progress and a risk of further rate hikes. Philip Fielding, emerging debt manager, points to cabinet appointments and fiscal plans for 2027 as decisive signals for assessing opportunities once prices stabilize.

Congress May Contain Spending and Complicate Reforms

The more conservative composition of the legislature appears as a counterweight across several analyses. Natixis, UBS, and J. Safra Sarasin consider that the need to negotiate with center and right-wing parties may limit spending expansion measures. Eirini Tsekeridou, fixed-income analyst at Julius Baer, highlights that legislative execution will depend on building coalitions in a fragmented and predominantly center-right Congress.

Viktor Szabó, investment director for emerging market debt at Aberdeen Investments, offers a less favorable interpretation of this counterweight. While an adversarial Congress can block more expensive pledges, it can also complicate revenue-raising measures and structural reforms, in addition to demanding costly concessions. “Paralysis is not consolidation,” he summarizes. For Szabó, the test goes beyond team names: investors need a framework capable of generating primary surpluses sufficient to stabilize debt, accompanied by measures on benefit indexation, mandatory spending, and tax expenditures. His analysis recognizes the strength of external accounts, natural resources, and the Brazilian institutional structure, but maintains that these attributes do not replace fiscal discipline.

Opportunities, with Conditions

Despite the cautious tone, market commentaries do not point to a generalized abandonment of Brazil. Larry Hatheway, global investment strategist at the Franklin Templeton Institute, considers that elevated interest rates, both nominal and real, must persist. “Despite short-term volatility, Brazil’s local-currency debt remains an attractive source of income and return,” he states. For Hatheway, the stock market can recover over the medium term if the government combines fiscal adjustment with liberalization measures that stimulate productivity and return on capital. Julius Baer also sees room for strong performance across bonds, the real, and domestic equities should there be a commitment to debt stabilization and the gradual consolidation of public accounts.

At Fidelity, Zoltan Palfi, Latin American equities manager, assesses that a sharp correction can create entry points for long-term investors. The firm considers Brazilian equities attractive compared to historical levels and other emerging peers, highlighting small and mid-cap companies focused on the domestic market. UBS’s analysis is more cautious regarding the starting point: prior to the result, it viewed the market trading near its 10-year historical average, at 9.6 times forward earnings. The assessments use different reference points, showing that there is no uniform view on asset discounts.

Lale Akoner, global market strategist at eToro, also distinguishes the correction of positions from a sudden deterioration in activity. “Part of the reaction reflects a rapid repositioning by investors rather than an abrupt deterioration of the Brazilian economy,” she states. She sees greater pressure on banks, retail, and companies reliant on the domestic consumer, while exporters with dollar revenues may benefit from a weaker real. Akoner recommends caution when seeking dip-buying opportunities. The key lies in separating structurally challenged companies from those sold off amid market nervousness, paying attention to balance sheet quality and potential signs of spending containment. Fidelity makes a similar caveat for fixed income: high interest rates do not guarantee a positive total return when bond losses and currency depreciation absorb incoming yield.

Payden & Rygel maintains a favorable view toward emerging debt as a strategic allocation, supported by positive real rates, foreign exchange reserves, and external fundamentals. The thesis covers emerging markets as a whole; it does not represent an exclusively Brazilian assessment nor does it eliminate local fiscal risks.

In commentary also received this Monday, William Castro Alves, chief strategist at Avenue, reinforces the importance of international diversification regardless of the election winner. The analysis complements the views of global firms by emphasizing the protection of dollar-linked liabilities and expenses.

For the coming months, the main difference across assessments lies in the degree of confidence that a fiscal correction will take place and the speed at which prices can offer compensation for the risks. The markers noted for this assessment are concrete: recurring spending measures, verifiable numbers, legislative support, and a debt trajectory capable of facilitating lower interest rates.

Revolut Creates Revolut Ventures in Collaboration with Carne Group

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Revolut, the global fintech, has announced the incorporation of Revolut Ventures in collaboration with Carne Group, Europe’s largest third-party management company. As explained, Revolut Ventures will serve as a bridge between selected investors and high-growth, unlisted technology companies.

The company explains that these businesses are taking increasingly longer to go public, with the median time rising from 6.9 years in 2014 to 11 years in 2025. Consequently, a large portion of value creation now takes place prior to an IPO. In their view, these investment opportunities have traditionally been reserved for large institutions and high-net-worth individuals, leaving retail investors on the sidelines. In parallel, the firm maintains that public equity investment opportunities in the U.S. have been cut in half, dropping from 7,000 listed companies in 2000 to 3,900 in 2025. “More and more mature, cash-generating companies are becoming privately held or deciding never to go public, reducing opportunities for retail investors,” they point out.

As one of the world’s leading privately held tech companies, Revolut has deep, first-hand knowledge of the private markets ecosystem. The creation of Revolut Ventures represents a natural evolution following the launch of Private Markets in July 2026 across selected EEA markets.

Through partnerships with some of the world’s most prominent unlisted technology companies, the Revolut Ventures platform will be integrated into the Revolut app alongside existing investment options, which include U.S. and EEA stocks, ETFs, money market funds, bonds, and private market funds. While these alternatives offer growth potential, they are significantly less liquid than publicly traded equities and carry a substantial risk of capital loss.

Rolandas Juteika, Head of Wealth and Trading (EEA) at Revolut, stated that “with Revolut Ventures, our goal is to break down one of the final barriers in wealth management: the exclusion of retail investors from unlisted companies. Value creation occurs long before an IPO, and by operating our own platform, we are giving everyday investors the opportunity to access tomorrow’s market leaders directly from the Revolut app.”

J.P. Morgan Projects a 7.0% Annual Return for a 60/40 Investment Portfolio over 10–15 Years

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

The projected annual return for a U.S. dollar-denominated 60/40 stock and bond portfolio over the next 10–15 years rises to 7.0%, although higher correlations between stocks and bonds call for additional diversification. This is the main takeaway from the 31st edition of the 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMA) report by J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The study offers a comprehensive 10- to 15-year outlook on the future returns and risks across various investment asset classes, against a backdrop where inflation uncertainty and market volatility remain elevated.

While labor and demographic headwinds may constrain long-term growth potential, the report argues that increased capital expenditure and the adoption of artificial intelligence across sectors will bolster near-term earnings and lift long-term productivity.

The report emphasizes the potential of regional equity diversification and the inclusion of alternative assets, particularly hedge funds and real assets. A 60/40+ portfolio with a 30% allocation to diversified alternatives could boost expected returns up to 7.5% and improve the Sharpe ratio by 21% compared to a conventional 60/40 portfolio.

“Our long-term capital market assumptions help investors navigate markets reshaped by economic nationalism, technological acceleration, and shifting capital flows. This year’s outlook points to stronger long-term growth and new opportunities to build more resilient portfolios through diversification—combining higher global fixed-income yields with alternative and real assets that deliver differentiated return sources and enhanced inflation protection,” noted John Bilton, Global Head of Multi-Asset Strategy at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

For his part, David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, commented: “The global economy is entering a dynamic investment cycle in which AI adoption and productivity gains reinforce growth prospects. At the same time, demographic challenges, elevated public deficits, and a more complex geopolitical landscape suggest that inflation will remain more volatile across our forecast horizon.”

Regarding the report’s practical utility, Grace Peters, Global Co-Head of Investment Strategy at J.P. Morgan Private Bank, explained: “Each year, the assumptions from our LTCMA report provide the foundation for building client portfolios, and that has never been more critical than it is today. Returns matter, but they are no longer the only factor to consider. In the current environment, achieving an optimal balance between risk and return is essential. High market dispersion creates opportunities for investors who take a disciplined approach to strategic asset allocation, looking beyond what the headlines might suggest.”

Key Takeaways from the Report

The firm explains that three core forces are shaping the future and will drive returns. The first is economic nationalism, which spurs state investment, though risks linked to inflation volatility persist. Second, technology adoption is underpinning the global economy by driving investment and productivity. Meanwhile, a surge in domestic investment is prompting a reallocation of capital and altering the dynamics of public and private flows.

The best growth prospects for the developed world in 15 years: The report notes that a global investment boom focused on artificial intelligence, set to extend through 2040, will lift total factor productivity by 50% to 120 basis points. This boost raises the forecast for U.S. real GDP growth to 2.1% and developed-market nominal growth to 4.2%. In addition, the policy mix of GDP and inflation is the most favorable seen since the pandemic.

Furthermore, upward revisions to U.S. equities, a global bond revival, and a maiden analysis of bitcoin take center stage. According to the study, profit margins exceeding 15% lift the forecast for U.S. large-cap equities by 80 basis points to 7.5%, leading developed market equity expectations to surpass emerging markets for the first time in the report’s history. Meanwhile, rising real yields push global aggregate bond forecasts up from a low of 2.1% in 2021 to 5.3% today—the highest level in two decades. The document also includes an expected return range for bitcoin, although the asset is not included as a portfolio allocation.

Regarding alternative assets, they offer superior returns, enhanced diversification, and strengthened inflation protection. Higher inflation volatility, persistent currency debasement risks, and expanding alpha-generation opportunities reinforce the role of alternative assets as an indispensable portfolio component and return engine. The analysis lifts the outlook for diversified hedge funds by 140 basis points, supported by sustained alpha resilience and a higher interest-rate regime. Concurrently, it maintains a constructive outlook on real assets given their capacity to hedge against heightened inflation volatility.

Return Assumptions by Asset Class

Fixed Income

Intermediate-term U.S. Treasuries are expected to deliver a 4.6% return, supported by expectations of higher policy rates and the reconstitution of term premia, which brightens long-term return prospects.

U.S. investment-grade corporate debt is projected to return 6.1%, while U.S. high-yield debt is forecast at 6.7%, with a fair value spread of 440 basis points, driven by improved credit quality among the index’s constituents.

Equities

U.S. large-cap equities are expected to yield 7.5% (up from 6.7% previously), reflecting persistent technology adoption and productivity gains. Nevertheless, elevated starting valuations and concentration risk remain vital considerations. Globally, equities are projected to return 7.5% (in USD), with non-U.S. markets offering richer diversification potential and benefiting from a U.S. dollar depreciation that proceeds at a more measured pace.

For emerging markets, the report projects equity returns of 7.1% (in USD)—a lower figure than the previous year, as AI tailwinds and capital expenditures (capex) normalize.

Alternative Investments

Alternatives encompass several distinct categories:

Private Equity: Projected return stands at 9.8%, marking a slight moderation. Return potential remains anchored to consistent value creation and operational efficiencies, including AI integration across portfolio companies.
Real Estate: Core U.S. real estate is projected to return 8.1%, while European core real estate is set at 7.1%.
Core Global Infrastructure: Forecast to deliver 7.1% (up from 6.5% last year), mirroring supply chain reconfigurations.
Commodities: Broad-basket commodities return forecasts rise to 4.8%, as access to critical minerals remains constrained and geopolitical risks weigh on the outlook. Gold holds steady at 5.5%.
Timberland: Global timberland assets are expected to generate 6.2%, slightly below the 6.3% recorded the previous year.
Hedge Funds: Diversified hedge funds are projected to return 6.7%, up from 5.3% last year, reflecting higher alpha estimates.

The Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (LTCMA) report is the product of an exhaustive research process combining quantitative and qualitative inputs from more than 90 leading portfolio managers, economists, and research analysts globally. These time-tested projections cover over 200 assets denominated in more than 20 currencies, serving as a benchmark for strategic asset allocation and long-term investment planning across today’s evolving financial landscape.

The Reasons Pointing to December for the Next Fed Rate Hike

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

No changes are expected in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate at next week’s meeting. The market takes it for granted that the U.S. monetary authority will choose to leave its monetary policy unchanged, holding rates within the 3.75%–4.00% target range set following last month’s hike. According to asset management experts, the rationale is twofold: the proximity of the midterm elections and the ongoing economic resilience displayed by the United States.

“The proximity of the midterm elections, along with the need to evaluate the impact that the previous rate hike has had on the market, are among the most significant arguments for postponing a decision to raise rates again in October. Consequently, even though the September U.S. inflation print came in worse than expected across both headline and core metrics, it still appears too early to confirm an upward trend. Investors believe Warsh will opt to delay any hike until December, when the market anticipates another increase in the policy rate that will lift the target range to 4.00%–4.25%,” explains Cristina Gavín Moreno, Head of Fixed Income at Ibercaja Gestión.

Between Statements and Data

Furthermore, as Kish Pathak, fixed-income research analyst at MFS IM, and Erik Weisman, chief economist and portfolio manager at MFS IM, recall, comments from Vice Chairs Williams and Jefferson revealed no intention to raise rates this month. Christopher Waller stated that hikes “do not necessarily have to happen at consecutive meetings,” and Bowman sees no urgency to act. Finally, Warsh’s remarks in Bangkok were notable for what went unsaid: he did not repeat the forceful anti-inflation message delivered at Jackson Hole.

“Data published since the last meeting supports the view that the labor market remains in good shape and that inflation is still too elevated for comfort. At the same time, Warsh has favored focusing on broader trends. A single additional month of data does little to determine whether the trend is shifting, which is why he has advocated for reducing the number of FOMC meetings. The nature of the risks confronting the economy also counsels patience. For instance, latent inflationary pressures will ease if some resolution to the war involving Iran is reached and energy prices retreat. The economy has proven resilient amid the oil crisis thanks to robust capital expenditure linked to artificial intelligence and the wealth effect generated by equities. If the recent volatility in AI-related stocks worsens, growth could lose momentum. By December, there will be more visibility on both fronts,” argue the MFS IM experts.

Bank of America (BofA) economists take a more critical view of the headline U.S. economic data, acknowledging that while there are “strong arguments for raising rates, there are substantial hurdles to executing it.” They maintain their forecast that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points, although they recognize it will be a difficult decision to implement given market developments over the past week. “September inflation, coming in well above expectations, bolsters the case for an October hike. The October decision will test Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s resolve to introduce a radical shift in the institution’s forward guidance. If the Fed raises rates, fears of excessive monetary tightening could emerge; if it holds rates unchanged, markets might question its credibility,” they state.

A New Way of Communicating

Thus, according to market experts, the primary focus of next week’s meeting lies in the Fed Chair’s assessment of the condition of the U.S. economy. “Even if he does not deliver formal forward guidance, he can certainly offer clues about what to expect—not so much for the remainder of this year, where the market already prices in a December hike, but looking ahead to 2027. If consumer strength persists and inflationary pressures become entrenched, that could lead to two additional hikes next year,” Gavín notes.

According to Christian Scherrmann, Chief U.S. Economist at DWS, in one of his rare public appearances outside the post-FOMC press conference, the Fed Chair refrained from commenting on the monetary policy outlook. “This was widely interpreted as a signal that the Fed will maintain the status quo, likely referencing his Jackson Hole remarks prior to the last rate increase. However, other Fed officials continue to send mixed signals. For example, Governor Christopher Waller still entertains the possibility of further hikes, even as higher Treasury yields tighten financial conditions. Vice Chair Philip Jefferson advocates for patience, while Governor Michelle Bowman sees little urgency to act. Others, such as Austan Goolsbee, Beth Hammack, John Williams, and Susan Collins, worry that inflation could prove stickier than expected. This divergence of views suggests the committee itself is divided over whether policy is already restrictive enough. In any case, central bankers have become more active in recent months rather than less, contrary to what Chair Warsh suggested. We interpret this as a sign of an engaged FOMC, which in our view reinforces the institution’s independence,” Scherrmann emphasizes.

For François Rimeu, Senior Strategist at Crédit Mutuel AM, although he agrees with fellow analysts that forward guidance has fallen out of favor, close attention must be paid to Warsh’s remarks during the ensuing press conference. “The official statement is likely to remain largely unchanged from September: solid growth, a stable labor market without wage pressures, elevated inflation, and a reaffirmed commitment to price stability. In the press conference, Chair Warsh is expected to maintain his stance of avoiding guidance on the future path of interest rates,” he adds.

AI Crowned Top Direct Investment Destination for Global Ultra-High-Net-Worth Individuals

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Citi Wealth’s recent “2026 Global Family Office Report,” based on responses from 351 family office executives across 41 countries, reveals that leading organizations are constructing long-term strategies grounded in three pillars: capital, capability, and continuity. In an environment characterized by high interest rates, doubts regarding financial system stability, and geopolitical risks, family offices have operated in an agile and disciplined manner. Sector leaders have not allowed uncertainty to paralyze them; instead, they have adopted more deliberate and institutional approaches to investing, deploying technology, and preparing the next generation to preserve wealth.

Extraordinary Performance Amid Uncertainty

Capital management has proven to be exceptionally resilient. Nearly nine out of ten family offices (89%) reported positive portfolio returns so far in 2026. Nearly 60% of respondents reported gains of up to 10%, while 13% reported appreciation in their investments exceeding 15%. The Asia-Pacific region stood out, with 26% of family offices achieving gains above 15%.

Annual return targets reflect a focus on sustainable growth. First, 41% of family offices target returns of 7% to 10%. Another 20% aim for returns between 5% and 7%, while 18% seek margins of 10% to 13%. Finally, in Asia-Pacific, 22% of respondents target annual returns above 15%.

Inflation and Asset Restructuring

The hierarchy of macroeconomic risks shifted substantially in 2026. Inflation emerged as the dominant concern, cited by 63% of respondents (a significant jump from 37% in 2025). This was followed by interest rate trends (44%) and global financial system stability (38%). Notably, concern over trade disputes and tariffs dropped dramatically to 18%. In Latin America, inflation concerns reached their highest level at 76%.

To protect purchasing power, family offices have adjusted their strategic asset allocations. Publicly traded equities currently represent the largest average allocation at 30% of portfolios, followed by fixed income (16%) and cash (12%). Over the past 12 months, equities attracted the largest net capital increase, with 46% of respondents indicating they increased their exposure.

Private Markets and Direct Investment

Private markets remain a fundamental pillar. Looking at private equity, interest is heavily concentrated in growth equity strategies, where 30% plan to increase their allocation. This is followed by venture capital (21%) and secondary transactions (19%).

Direct investment is a widespread practice, with 75% of family offices participating. Growth stage (Series C or D) is the most frequent target area (57%), followed by pre-IPO opportunities in second place (40%), and secondary transactions capturing 40% of respondents.

At the sector level, artificial intelligence (AI) has established itself as the top destination for direct investments, selected by 51% of participants. Healthcare (32%) and real estate (31%) also maintain solid demand. The preferred deal size for these investments ranges between $1 million and $5 million for 44% of family offices, although 26% of the largest firms (with wealth exceeding $500 million) target check sizes between $5 million and $10 million.

Adoption of Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence has transitioned from an exploratory concept into an operational reality. Forty percent of respondents describe their adoption of AI as early-stage, while an additional 30% report moderate adoption. Only 10% report advanced usage. Just 19% indicate no adoption at all—a significant improvement compared to last year.

Primary applications focus on productivity: generating meeting notes and summaries (16% extensive use and 22% in implementation) is the leading use case. In terms of tangible benefits, 67% state that AI has dramatically improved the speed of information processing. Other positive impacts include reducing manual work or headcount (35%) and faster due diligence (35%). In investment management, market and macroeconomic analysis leads adoption, with 12% using it extensively.

Financing and Operating Companies

The link to operating businesses remains strong: 67% of respondents hold controlling stakes in one or more operating businesses. In terms of banking services for these businesses, 40% require capital or credit lines. As for the family offices themselves, 57% turn to securities-based lending or margin facilities as their primary form of leverage, favoring capital efficiency without disrupting their portfolios.

Continuity, Governance, and Succession

Leadership succession is emerging as one of the most pressing issues on the horizon. One-third of family offices expect a leadership transition within the next five years. However, readiness remains deficient: only 17% feel “well prepared,” while 34% consider themselves “somewhat prepared.”

Among the main challenges, the primary obstacle is the lack of a clear leadership succession plan (29%), followed by insufficient preparation of future leaders (24%), and a lack of a clear vision and goals for the future (22%).

When developing the next generation, 46% cite “lack of clarity regarding future roles” as their biggest hurdle, followed by an “insufficient sense of urgency” (42%) and “lack of engagement from the next generation” (39%). To address this situation, family offices are betting on participation in family meetings (56%), meetings with advisors (47%), and professional experience outside the family business (44%).

Cross-Border Complexity and Globalization

Family wealth is internationalizing rapidly. Thirty-eight percent of respondents expect family globalization (living abroad, acquiring new residences, or obtaining citizenships) to increase moderately or significantly over the next five years. This trend is especially pronounced in Latin America, where 58% expect a global impact.

Currently, 26% of family offices operate across multiple jurisdictions, and another 14% are considering doing so. The number one need for cross-border wealth management is tax coordination (59%), followed by asset structuring (43%) and residence/citizenship planning (35%).

Family Values and Purpose

Decisions are deeply rooted in principles. Fifty-five percent of respondents state that family mission and values strongly guide or fundamentally shape their investment strategy. This figure rises to nearly 80% among third-generation family offices and beyond. Nearly half of family offices maintain allocations to sustainable investments, with public equities (23%) and private equity (21%) being the preferred vehicles.

To enhance philanthropic impact, respondents prioritize access to networks and learning opportunities (25%) on par with intergenerational engagement and legacy building (25%), balancing external effectiveness with internal cohesion. In the realm of art, 17% would consider working with art advisors to gain intelligence on the global market.

Active ETFs, AI, and Tokenized Funds: Janus Henderson’s Present and Future Innovation Roadmap

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Ali Dibadj, CEO of Janus Henderson, used the opening of the Janus Henderson Investment Summit—the asset manager’s annual event for investors and clients, held in September this year for the first time in Rome, Italy—to highlight three fronts where he believes the firm is more innovative than many realize: active ETFs, tokenized funds, and artificial intelligence. During his presentation, he used the Italian capital as a metaphor for the company itself.

Dibadj asked attendees to explore the firm as they would the Italian city: “I would like you to think of Janus Henderson a bit like Rome, in the sense that we have a foundation that began 92 years ago, upon which we continue to build,” he maintained, adding: “You may know us for one thing, but consider getting to know us for something else as well.”

As he recounted, the firm was founded in 1934 with a single client in the United Kingdom, where it maintains its headquarters, and since then has invested “in things others were not investing in”: the first British railways, the electrification of London, and lightbulbs. Thirty-five years later, it began operating in the United States, where it bet on the first personal computers, the first fiber-optic cables, and later, the internet. “Different, new, and innovative things,” he summarized.

Among the Top Ten in Active ETFs

“We are very innovative in many ways,” Dibadj stated. In exchange-traded funds, he contended that Janus Henderson is one of the top ten active ETF providers in the world and ranks among the top three or four in active fixed-income ETFs.

The CEO framed this positioning within the weight of fixed income in their business, which already accounts for 30% of the total and, as he explained, continues to grow. Along with CLOs and securitized products, it is a area where the firm sees opportunities in an environment of persistent rates and yields. Dibadj also outlined an organic and inorganic growth strategy that includes ETFs, portfolio analysis for clients, private asset distribution, and asset-backed securities, with the goal of finding “differentiated areas” for clients and advisors.

At the same time, he highlighted the manager’s position in tokenized funds: “We are one of the top five providers of tokenized funds worldwide. I bet you didn’t know that about Janus Henderson.” He added: “We believe it is an area of the future where we can be leaders, and we would love for your clients to participate with us.”

Regarding artificial intelligence, Dibadj maintained that the firm relies heavily on it, but with a different approach from the one he believes dominates the sector: “Not just to cut costs, not just to gain productivity, not just what everyone else is saying.” It applies it, he explained, “to deliver for you,” focusing “on client service” and “on better investment performance. That is what matters to you, and that is what matters to us.”

He placed technology among the company’s “core beliefs”: “We believe technology will change absolutely everything and we have to be prepared for that, for you and for your clients.” He added that the attendees’ clients “are asking more of them” and want to work with their teams, and that the manager must support them in that task while its own costs—like those of the entire industry—continue to rise.

A Private Company, with More Room to Invest

To finance these initiatives, Dibadj explained, the firm decided that “as a public company it is harder to do so,” and this year it went private. “We feel a bit less quarterly pressure. We can invest and be creative again, investing with a return for you and for your clients,” he stated. His premise, he said, is simple: “If we deliver for our clients, everything will be fine.”

The CEO maintained that Janus Henderson was the fastest-growing asset manager over the last four years, “faster than many of the other major companies,” attributing this to the attendees and their clients. He added that the company was able to add new people to its teams and provide room to invest in existing staff.

The Context: Three Persistent Trends

According to Dibadj, these strategic bets are supported by trends the firm identified “before they were obvious” and that will remain relevant “for many years to come.”

The first is geopolitical realignments, which the firm began speaking about nearly five years ago: “Not a day goes by without us hearing about instability, deglobalization, broken supply chains.” The second is lifestyle changes, involving AI, aging populations, healthcare, and working arrangements: “How often are people on Zoom calls now, and how much were they ten years ago?”

The third is the return of the cost of capital, something that, he recalled, “four or five years ago people didn’t think would happen.” It implies higher yields and, therefore, more fixed income, but also selection: “When there is no cost of capital, there is no differentiation. That differentiation,” he assured, “will come and happen as rates and yields remain persistent,” creating a divide between the haves and the have-nots.

At the conclusion of his presentation, Dibadj placed the manager at $500 billion in assets under management, with 64 strategies exceeding $1 billion each, 2,000 employees, and 75 million clients worldwide. About 350 people are dedicated exclusively to researching investment strategies, and another 450 focus on client service.

In closing, he referred to the firm’s identity and the “&” symbol: “It is the ‘together’ part. The ‘together’ is you and us. That is how we operate, that is how we think.” Along those lines, he invited attendees to share how the company can improve, “because it is about the &. It is about you.”

Ricciardi: “If in Three Years People Think Fidelity Is the Ideal Retirement Company, I Would Be Very Happy”

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Photo courtesySamantha Ricciardi, Head of EMEA de Fidelity International.

Samantha Ricciardi, Head of EMEA at Fidelity International, outlined key trends and challenges facing both the industry in general and Fidelity International in particular at the firm’s European Media Summit recently held in London. The executive, who joined the firm just six months ago, cited the need for individuals to take greater responsibility for their financial future as the primary industry trend. “We are not going to have enough money to retire,” she asserted, emphasizing that “there is a push at the European level regarding how we ensure that people take ownership of their financial future and better plan for their retirement.”

Second, she pointed to advice as a growing trend. “We have noticed a significant increase in people’s interest in knowing not just what to invest in, but also how to achieve certain goals,” she stated. Ultimately, she observes that clients are seeking solutions to reach a specific target rather than an opinion on a particular product. “This means people are requesting much more advice,” she argued. In this realm, it is inevitable to consider the impact artificial intelligence will have on advisory services. Ricciardi recalled that a few years ago, the industry thought robo-advisors “were going to dominate everything.” However, she concluded that when it comes to deciding what to do with your financial future, “you usually prefer to sit down and talk to someone.”

As the third major trend transforming the industry, the executive cited the huge growth of new vehicles. Specifically, she highlighted ETFs—especially actively managed ones—which help facilitate investor access to the world of investing.

Ricciardi also discussed her goals for Fidelity International. She acknowledged the firm’s profile as an asset manager in EMEA, but also highlighted the importance of its direct-access investment platforms, which allow them to “better understand our clients’ needs and offer them solutions throughout their entire lifecycle.” This even extends to retirement solutions for corporate clients. Ultimately, “Fidelity goes far beyond simple investment management. We have extensive knowledge on how to interact with clients and support them throughout the entire lifecycle of their investments,” she declared.

As an underlying priority, Ricciardi noted that they are working “very hard” to position Fidelity as a strategic partner for clients amid an industry trend where investors are reducing their number of providers.

Retirement

The pensions industry was the focal point of Ricciardi’s presentation. “It has always been a challenge,” she admitted, emphasizing that “the numbers are very revealing and certainly quite concerning.” The executive highlighted the global demographic challenge, concluding that “the numbers simply do not add up” regarding public pensions. “It is important for governments to start thinking about how to ensure citizens reflect on whether they have enough money saved and invested, and whether it will last them into retirement,” she pointed out, citing instruments like the Altersvorsorgedepot—a new private pension model in Germany effective as of January 1, 2027. “This could serve as a good example for mobilizing the 13 trillion euros in deposits currently held by European citizens,” she assured.

Ricciardi believes the Capital Markets Union (CMU) is a good first step toward encouraging people to move from cash to investments, noting that the challenge lies in the fact that each country will decide how to proceed. She referenced studies showing that what truly makes a difference is auto-enrollment in pension plans and including tax incentives, as well as having access to all savings in a single location alongside pension simulators, as is done in Sweden.

In reality, this landscape is full of opportunities, according to Ricciardi. “If in three years people think Fidelity is the ideal retirement company, I would be very happy,” stated the executive, who underscored the firm’s long-term vision and its “DNA fully tied to the retirement sector.”

ETFs

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been a booming instrument for several years. Ricciardi recalled that active ETFs have grown from $800 billion to $2 trillion and are projected to reach $4 trillion by 2030. “It meets an existing demand” and “they are useful” because they offer a more innovative way to invest, according to the Fidelity International executive, giving savers another avenue to grow their money through an innovative instrument. In the case of active ETFs, they combine the innovation of the vehicle with active management as the underlying component.

Ricciardi “firmly” believes that ETFs incentivize savers to become investors and save more, in addition to being a good instrument to use in investment portfolios. On this point, she revealed that the firm is the second-largest active ETF provider in Europe. Although she is aware that “competition is fierce” and the ultimate aspiration is “to be number one,” Ricciardi would be satisfied remaining in the top three.

In terms of figures, Ricciardi noted that the firm currently manages approximately $17 billion in ETFs, with the goal of more than tripling that figure over the next two years.

Regarding artificial intelligence, Ricciardi believes it “is changing how we distribute, as clients are closer to being able to meet their expectations than in the past,” thereby making investing easier. However, she also believes that when it comes to making major decisions, such as closing a deal, there will continue to be plenty of room for human interaction and personal conversation.

Fiscal Credibility, Debt, and Riots: Why Are Investors Watching France?

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Investors are closely monitoring social unrest in Europe, led mainly by France. According to experts at international asset managers, October could be a complicated month for global markets considering the US midterm elections, rising bond yields, and geopolitical and domestic political risks, which do not appear to be losing momentum.

“October is a month that strikes fear into the heart of many investors due to the dramatic, high-profile sell-offs experienced that month in 1929, 1987, and 2008. The negative perception of October is more psychological than real, as historically it has not been the worst month for stock market investing. However, psychology is important when it comes to the markets, and with bond yields hitting multi-year highs, several major elections around the corner, and the US midterm elections just a month away, it seems October is taking us straight into the danger zone,” acknowledges Kristina Hooper, Chief Market Strategist at Man Group.

From Aberdeen Investments, they note that short-term selling pressure may not be over. “Rising oil and gas prices have highlighted pre-existing weaknesses in the fiscal credibility of the US, the UK, and France, as well as persistent inflation, while forced liquidations by leveraged investors have amplified these moves. The only factor that could clearly halt this trend is an improvement in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East,” they indicate.

The Case of France

For now, the big focus is France, as spreads on its sovereign debt have reached new highs while fiscal consolidation seems increasingly distant. It is worth noting that the wave of riots and violence that has broken out responds to social discontent resulting from government cuts and rising inflation. “With the French 10-year bond close to 5%, the 140-billion-euro net savings program proposed by Le Pen arouses skepticism by requiring a gross adjustment of 185 billion euros and relying on unrealistic GDP growth of 1.8%, compared to real estimates of between 0.5% and 0.8% for 2026. The lack of a solution to the French deficit revives the ghost of the 2012 sovereign debt crisis, placing the European Central Bank before the dilemma of letting debt fall and harming confidence in the euro, or intervening and rewarding fiscal indiscipline, creating moral hazard in the rest of the region,” points out Javier Cabrera, analyst at XTB.

For Erick Muller, Director of Product and Market Strategy and Co-Head of the Asset Allocation Group at Muzinich & Co, political gridlock and the proximity of the 2027 elections make it difficult to adopt corrective measures and could prolong uncertainty in the markets. “France is a good example of the difficulties developed economies face in controlling public spending. In 2026, its deficit stands at around 5.6% of GDP, and the interest cost on debt is increasing considerably. This year, interest expenditure has gone from a forecast of 70 billion euros to approximately 80 billion. In 2027 it could reach 92 billion, and in 2028 be close to 100 billion. To put these figures in perspective, the government is trying to find savings of 53 billion euros, something I don’t think it will achieve. We are talking about an increase of around 30 billion in interest payments in just three years. It is a very difficult situation to solve,” he explains.

In his opinion, France’s problem is that the economy is slowing down and the political landscape makes any fiscal response extremely difficult. “Expected growth for 2026 has been reduced to practically half of what was initially expected, which also affects public accounts. Markets are asking what the answer is to this deterioration, and for now, they are not finding any satisfactory one,” he adds.

Return of the Bond Vigilantes?

In this context, investors are paying close attention to the spike in debt yields and the course of the Federal Reserve—have the “bond vigilantes” returned? For Giordano Lombardo, founder, CEO, and CIO of Plenisfer Investments (Generali Investments), yes; furthermore, he warns that the boom in AI investment, increasingly financed by debt, and rising public deficits are increasing pressure on fixed-income markets and elevating stagflation risks.

According to his analysis, the increase in bond yields extended to public securities of other countries. “All major fixed-income markets registered negative returns, except China. In recent weeks, concerns surrounding government bonds of certain Eurozone countries have resurfaced strongly, and France seems to be the epicenter of the crisis this time due to the sharp increase in its public deficit and the prospect of elections that could further worsen the sustainability of public finances,” he states. Moreover, he considers that waves of pessimism in the fixed-income market also affected the technology sector.

His main conclusion is that we have entered a phase of structural bear market conditions for bonds. “However, in recent months, the role of the Federal Reserve has once again become the dominant factor driving short-term movements in the bond market. In addition, the fiscal policies of major economies have all been expansionary, at least over the last fifteen years and especially following the post-pandemic measures introduced in 2020. In the US and Europe, there do not appear to be political forces interested in returning to the fiscal discipline of previous decades,” he qualifies.

Natixis IM Strengthens Its Distribution Model With the Creation of a Global Client Development Division

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Fabrice Chemouny, director of Chief Client Officer.

Natixis Investment Managers (Natixis IM) has announced the creation of the Global Client Development division, which will bring together all teams involved in client services across the entire value chain. According to the asset manager, the new division will feature three areas: Client Markets, organized into six geographic regions; Partnerships; and Product Range & Solutions.

Additionally, it announces that Fabrice Chemouny, current Head of International Distribution, will lead this division as Chief Client Officer. He will assume his new role on January 1, 2027, reporting directly to Philippe Setbon, CEO of Natixis IM. As clarified, this new organizational structure will be implemented following the conclusion of the information and consultation process with the relevant employee representative bodies.

This new organization is part of Groupe BPCE’s VISION 2030 strategic plan. Based on Natixis IM’s ambition for organic growth, this transformation aims, in particular, to adapt the firm’s distribution model to accelerate its global growth and better respond to client needs.

According to the announcement, the creation of a single global platform, which will integrate the United States and other international markets, will foster synergies across regions, provide clients with access to the full range of investment capabilities of Natixis IM and its affiliated investment managers, and enhance operational agility.

The new division will be structured around three main pillars. First, Client Markets, which is a single distribution platform organized into six regions, with each region focused on meeting the needs and investment preferences of its clients, taking into account local market regulations and specifics: United States; Northern Europe and Canada: United Kingdom, Netherlands, Nordics, and Canada; Continental Europe and Latin America: Western and Southern Europe, including France; Central and Eastern Europe; Latin America; and US Offshore; Middle East, Central Asia, and Africa; Asia-Pacific, excluding Japan; and Japan.

Second, a new Partnerships area, whose mission will be to strengthen existing strategic distribution alliances and establish new ones with banking networks, insurers, and other distributors worldwide, with the goal of making Natixis IM’s offering accessible to a broader client base. And finally, a new Product Range & Solutions department. As explained, this area will define the product range strategy based on client needs, developing solutions in areas such as retirement, long-term savings, and wealth management, drawing upon the offerings of investment managers affiliated with Natixis IM.

“We are a global player with deep local roots. In an increasingly fragmented international environment, we want to strengthen both dimensions. Our strategic plan has proven successful, and we want to take it a step further. This new organization further reinforces the central role of clients in our model across all regions and helps accelerate our growth,” stated Philippe Setbon, CEO of Natixis Investment Managers.

For his part, Fabrice Chemouny, who will assume the role of Chief Client Officer of Natixis Investment Managers effective January 1, 2027, added: “By bringing our teams together into a new global organization, we combine a deep understanding of each market with the strength of an international player. Furthermore, we will make our offering accessible to a greater number of clients through new distribution alliances and work with them to develop solutions tailored to their long-term needs. This transformation will provide us with the agility needed to navigate volatile markets, foster synergies across regions, and drive innovation for the benefit of our clients.”

The Funds Industry Faces New Data-Driven Supervision

| By Amaya Uriarte | 0 Comentarios

Authorities will evaluate governance based on its effectiveness under stress, prioritizing the use of “better data” rather than a higher volume of reports to detect risks in time. ESMA drives new UCITS rules to standardize information, while the CSSF intensifies supervision of conflicts of interest in delegation agreements. Luxembourg plans to make its unregulated funds more flexible through segregated compartments, and the United Kingdom has just presented its largest post-Brexit asset management reform.

Regulators are increasingly examining how governance and delegation operate in practice, using higher quality data and more visible on-site supervision to drive targeted supervisory actions. Therefore, the central theme of Carne Group’s third-quarter update points to how companies are being driven toward more resilient models of delegation and fund structuring, through “smart” supervision that uses standardized, high-quality data to detect issues early rather than after the fact.

In the report, the firm analyzes the Central Bank of Ireland’s review of the delegation framework and the growing expectation that governance will be evaluated by how it functions under stress, not just on paper. In addition to ESMA’s ongoing effort toward reporting harmonization, the recent work by the CSSF on conflicts of interest, the potential for segregated liability compartments in unregulated funds, and the Financial Conduct Authority’s (FCA) proposal for the new U.K. asset management framework.

Review of the CBI Delegation Framework

The Central Bank of Ireland’s (CBI) July 2026 delegation review marks an important evolution in regulatory expectations, rather than a challenge to the delegation model itself. It concludes that delegation remains fundamental to the European fund industry. The broader issue it addresses concerns how effectively governance operates in practice, rather than simply what structures exist. For managers and delegates, this means a greater emphasis on demonstrable supervision, accountability, and resilience.

Effective governance increasingly depends on factors such as timely, reliable, and connected information. For this reason, the Central Bank identified fragmented systems, manual reconciliations, and weak contingency planning as areas for improvement. What they seek with this is to prioritize quality over quantity; that is, “better data” as opposed to “more data.” If companies collect information intelligently and connect it effectively, they can identify risk areas without creating unnecessary layers of reporting. Consequently, they can scale their business and become much more effective supervisors of delegates.

ESMA Drives Supervisory Convergence

ESMA continues to drive supervisory convergence and the harmonization of reporting, particularly through new UCITS reporting rules expected in the autumn. These will require more detailed information on liquidity, risk management, delegation arrangements, and investment markets and instruments. Implementation will require operational work, but in turn, it creates an opportunity to move away from ad hoc reporting toward consolidated and flexible reporting capabilities. Standardized data requirements could reduce point-in-time regulatory requests and allow companies to use regulatory data more proactively across all their businesses.

UCITS is already a fully harmonized European framework, making it a logical vehicle for greater standardization across all markets. However, at Carne Group they perceive some caution regarding ESMA assuming a broader supervisory role, with a preference for harmonization when it creates a level playing field while retaining the expertise of national regulators, such as those in Ireland and Luxembourg. Amendments in the European Parliament are also not in favor of ESMA becoming a single supervisor. This falls within a broader macroeconomic dynamic amid a growing focus on European champions.

Therefore, the question is how far supervisory convergence can go while maintaining national expertise, which remains important for Europe’s fund industry. ESMA’s Common Supervisory Action is also analyzing the risk management function, including whether companies have genuinely independent risk functions, adequate expertise, sufficient authority, appropriate staffing, and effective oversight by senior management. Unlike previous thematic reviews, the focus is centered directly on whether the function can operate effectively and independently.

On September 28, ESMA set its priorities for 2027, which include delivering on key elements of the Savings and Investments Union (SIU) agenda and advancing capabilities in data, artificial intelligence, and tokenization.

Conflicts of Interest: The CSSF Identifies Key Areas of Focus

Recent work by Luxembourg’s CSSF on conflicts of interest underscores the growing regulatory focus on how governance operates in practice, particularly where delegation arrangements exist. The CSSF has identified conflicts that can arise when commercial partners or initiators are appointed as investment advisors or portfolio managers. For example, when an initiator acts as a portfolio manager, they must have both the capability and the willingness to operate independent controls. If the investment manager retains portfolio management, there is a risk that the investment fund manager (IFM) will follow the initiator’s guidelines rather than acting independently in the best interest of the fund.

Another concern is that commercial partners or initiators may attempt to influence asset valuations, potentially affecting the independence of the valuation process and the IFM’s ability to act in the best interest of investors. The CSSF is also analyzing “white-label” firms, where conflicts may arise from the allocation of responsibilities, particularly when individuals linked to commercial partners or initiators occupy roles, functions, or positions in reporting lines that give rise to conflicts.

Segregated Liability Compartments for Unregulated Funds

A proposed change to Luxembourg’s fund framework could provide greater flexibility to private equity managers using Société en Commandite Simple (SCS) and Société en Commandite Spéciale (SCSp) structures. Standard SCSps are widely used in the world of private equity and infrastructure funds. However, an unregulated SCSp cannot legally create umbrella “sub-funds” with ring-fenced liabilities. Managers seeking segregated compartments typically need to use structures like RAIFs, SIFs, SICARs, or a Part II Fund, all of which carry additional legal product requirements.

The new proposal introduces a new Article 28bis to the Luxembourg AIFM Law, allowing eligible SCS and SCSp AIFs to legally create segregated compartments. Each compartment would have legally separate assets, liabilities, investors, and creditors, and creditors of a compartment would generally have recourse only against the assets of that compartment. Therefore, a single SCSp could contain multiple compartments representing different strategies, vintages, parallel vehicles, co-investment tranches, or separate groups of investors within a single legal entity. Individual compartments could also be liquidated independently, while cross-investment between compartments would be possible subject to safeguards.

If the proposal (still subject to Luxembourg’s parliamentary process) moves forward in its current state, managers currently using separate SCSp vehicles or RAIF umbrellas to achieve segregated liability could achieve the same result through a single unregulated SCSp platform managed by an authorized AIFM.

Regulation of Asset Management in the U.K.

In mid-July, the FCA launched the largest reform of the U.K. asset management framework since Brexit, consulting on an entirely new U.K. AIFM regime alongside Treasury (HM Treasury) legislation. Rather than maintaining inherited EU rules, the FCA wants a more proportionate, simpler regime tailored to different manager sizes. It has also proposed simplifying remuneration requirements and reviewing fund reporting.

The U.K. regulator has a number of statutory objectives, including promoting the global competitiveness of the U.K. financial sector. However, “it remains to be seen whether the new framework will ultimately drive greater divergence or alignment with European regulation,” notes the study. Therefore, the firm asserts that for the market, the key point will be how a simpler and more proportionate U.K. regime operates alongside the requirements faced by managers operating in Europe.