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Private Equity Deals in the Healthcare Sector Reached 190 Billion Dollars in 2025

According to the Global Healthcare Private Equity Report 2026, published by Bain & Company, the global value of private equity deals in the healthcare sector reached a new record in 2025, with an estimated 191 billion dollars in transactions, surpassing the previous all-time high recorded in 2021.

The report notes that this increase was driven mainly by a sharp rise in deals exceeding 1 billion dollars, which offset the second-quarter slowdown caused by tariffs in North America and Asia-Pacific. Transaction volume also remained strong, with 445 announced acquisitions, the second-highest figure on record.

At the same time, divestments rebounded sharply to reach 156 billion dollars — the second-highest level in history — compared to 54 billion dollars in 2024, thanks to the return of sponsor-to-sponsor transactions following the post-pandemic lows.

According to Cira Cuberes, partner at Bain & Company, “The private equity market in healthcare delivered record performance last year, with a major increase in large-scale transactions and growth across all segments, led by biopharma and providers, and driven by activity in medtech. We also observed a strong recovery in divestment value following recent lows, signaling the return of exit activity as sponsors restart sales processes for strategic assets. Everything points to a very dynamic 2026, supported by high liquidity levels and a growing number of sponsor-owned assets approaching the end of their investment cycle.”

Sponsor-to-sponsor deals on the rise

The analysis highlights that, following the slowdown seen in 2023 and 2024, sponsor-to-sponsor transactions returned strongly in 2025, reaching record highs in both volume and value. More than 150 transactions are expected, with an estimated value exceeding 120 billion dollars.

Bain & Company also emphasized the increase in average deal size: more than 30 transactions exceeded 1 billion dollars, compared to just eight in 2024. In addition, public-to-private deals and carve-outs continue gaining prominence as alternative opportunities for investors, showing sustained growth since 2023.

Recovery after the second-quarter decline

The report indicates that global growth was sustained thanks to consistent activity in Europe and the recovery of North America and Asia-Pacific after the second-quarter slowdown. Transaction volume increased 39% between the second and third quarters, and the second half of the year closed 7% above the first half.

North America: momentum from large deals

According to the study, the region managed to overcome the second-quarter slowdown thanks to the rise in large-scale transactions. Through November 2025, 26 deals exceeding 1 billion dollars were recorded, compared to 14 during all of 2024, and more than 70% were sponsor-to-sponsor.

Total deal volume grew slightly compared to the previous year, although it remains below the historical peak reached in 2021. In divestments, 2025 closed with an estimated value of 90 billion dollars, well above the 35 billion dollars recorded in 2024.

Europe: biopharma leadership and major transactions

The analysis indicates that in Europe, deal value is expected to double compared to the previous year, reaching approximately 59 billion dollars. The biopharma sector led this growth, accounting for the five largest transactions in the region and representing 65% of total value.

Large-scale deals also returned strongly: around 15 transactions exceeding 1 billion dollars were recorded in 2025, compared to only three in 2023 and four in 2024. Total transaction volume also increased, surpassing the 2024 record and maintaining the upward trend that began in 2022.

Divestments rebounded significantly to approximately 53 billion dollars following the sharp decline of the previous year, driven mainly by large sponsor-to-sponsor transactions.

Asia-Pacific: broad-based strength

The report states that deal value in Asia-Pacific reached a record in 2025, surpassing the 2021 peak by more than 30% despite the second-quarter slowdown. The biopharma and provider segments remain the main drivers of healthcare private equity in the region, although medtech and healthcare IT also posted significant growth.

Japan, India, and Australia-New Zealand showed notable gains compared to 2024, while China doubled its previous year’s performance in both volume and value, although overall activity remains below historical highs.

Biopharma sector: concentration of value

The study notes that transaction value in the biopharma segment increased to around 80 billion dollars in 2025, up from 55 billion dollars in 2024, while volume is expected to grow nearly 20%, surpassing 130 deals. Since 2020, this sector has represented approximately 30% of total deal volume and at least 22% of global transaction value.

Europe led much of this momentum, with transaction volume rising nearly 40% and value increasing 70% compared to 2024. In North America, growth was more moderate: value increased 20%, while volume remained stable.

Providers: growth driven by technology

According to the analysis, transaction value in providers and related services rose 57% to approximately 62 billion dollars, while volume remained stable, reflecting larger deal sizes. Growth was led by healthcare IT and provider services, although investment focused exclusively on providers did not accelerate at the same pace.

Investors concentrated on technology-enabled assets such as analytics, workforce optimization, and platform solutions. Within this segment, healthcare IT deal value doubled in 2025 to an estimated 32 billion dollars.

Medtech: momentum in the post-Covid era

The report highlights that transaction value in medtech nearly doubled compared to the previous year, reaching approximately 33 billion dollars, while volume increased nearly 20% to around 88 transactions. The sector is gaining traction as investors identify opportunities to apply proven value-creation strategies focused on revenue growth, margin expansion, and multiple expansion while managing downside risks.

Three key trends for 2026

The analysis points out that healthcare technology has maintained an upward trend in both volume and value since 2023, reflecting sustained investor interest. Those focusing on specific value-creation levers — such as developing comprehensive pricing and packaging strategies or pursuing large-scale mergers and acquisitions to build synergistic platforms — will be better positioned to differentiate their offerings and achieve stronger exits in an environment of high valuations and intense competition.

In the pharmaceutical services market, despite historically being an attractive and large segment, recent challenges have led some investors to adopt a more cautious stance. Others have opted for a selective approach, prioritizing premium assets with strong operational improvement potential and business models more resilient to market volatility.

Meanwhile, although activity remains below peak levels from several years ago, interest in physician groups persists among U.S. investors. Leading platforms are differentiating themselves by moving beyond the traditional buy-and-build model toward integrated, clinician-focused approaches that improve quality of care. Those investing in next-generation models based on attractive trends such as pharmaceutical exposure or value-based care are expected to find compelling opportunities.

“We are optimistic about the evolution of the healthcare private equity market this year, especially because investor confidence in the market’s fundamentals has remained strong despite the difficulties experienced last spring. The strength of public-to-private deals and carve-outs, together with the return of sponsor-to-sponsor transactions, reinforces expectations of intense activity. Looking ahead, investors will need to clearly define their value-creation strategies to achieve standout returns in an environment where competition for assets remains extremely high,” concluded Cira Cuberes, partner at Bain & Company.

The Waltons and the Art of Preserving What Was Built

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

In 1953, Sam Walton, best known for founding the world’s largest retail chain, did something that at the time almost no one noticed: he created Walton Enterprises and transferred 20% of the shares into a trust for each of his five children, keeping the remaining 20% for himself and his wife. He was not yet a successful businessman. But Sam was already thinking about how to protect what he was going to build.

That is estate planning. Not the outcome, but the early decision. The structure put in place before the wealth appears, on the surface, to justify the cost of creating it.

Today, the Waltons are one of the wealthiest families in the United States, with a fortune exceeding 200 billion dollars. And the relevant question is not how they got there, but why they are still there, four generations later, without the wealth having fragmented, diluted, or evaporated.

The answer has a name and surname. Or rather, several instruments with technical names.

The first is the irrevocable dynasty trust. Unlike a conventional trust, a dynasty trust is designed to last for decades without the assets becoming subject to estate taxes at each generational transfer. The Waltons used it, and the structure is so solid that, according to Bloomberg, none of the multiple divorces among Walton heirs managed to extract a single share from the trust.
The second instrument is the Charitable Lead Annuity Trust, or “CLAT” — also known as the “Jackie O. Trust” because of its pioneering use in the estate planning of the Kennedy family. The donor transfers assets into an irrevocable trust that, for a defined period, pays a fixed annuity to one or more charitable organizations chosen by the donor. At the end of the term, the remaining assets — plus all the appreciation accumulated during that period — are transferred to the heirs. The donor loses control over the assets from the moment they are contributed, but in return receives a tax deduction for the charitable contribution and allows a significant portion of the estate to pass to the next generation with a substantially reduced tax burden. The efficiency of the instrument depends largely on benchmark interest rates: the lower the rates, the greater the arbitrage opportunity. In the CLAT established by the Waltons in 2003, Bloomberg estimated that more than 2 billion dollars would pass to heirs tax-free. Two billion dollars. Tax-free. Legally.
The third instrument is what is now known in the estate planning world as the “Walton GRAT.” Through a Grantor Retained Annuity Trust, the grantor transfers assets — typically shares with high appreciation potential — into an irrevocable trust. For a defined period, the trust pays the grantor a fixed annuity. At maturity, if the grantor is still alive, the remaining assets — that is, all appreciation above the interest rate set by the IRS, known as the hurdle rate — are transferred to the beneficiaries without tax cost.

It is, essentially, an estate freeze: the original owner transfers the future appreciation of the asset without using up the lifetime gift tax exemption.

If the asset appreciates above the hurdle rate, the heirs receive that difference tax-free. If it does not, the assets return to the grantor. The only real risk is mortality: if the grantor dies during the GRAT term, the assets are reincorporated into the taxable estate, neutralizing the benefit.

In 1998, the Waltons refined this structure with very short-term GRATs — sometimes lasting just two years — designed to capture appreciation in Walmart shares during specific growth windows. The mechanism proved so efficient that the IRS spent years trying to block it. In 2000, Congress partially closed the loophole. But the Waltons had already passed through it, and the technique bearing their name remains today one of the most replicated instruments among ultra-high-net-worth families around the world.

4. The fourth element is Walton Enterprises, the single family office that manages the entire ecosystem. Based in Bentonville, Arkansas, it oversees more than 200 billion dollars in assets, coordinates the network of trusts and holdings, and functions as the backbone of family governance.

It is not a bank. It does not sell products. It has no conflicts of interest. It exists for one reason only: to ensure that Walton wealth remains Walton wealth.

What can be learned from all this?

Estate planning is not for when you are already wealthy. Sam Walton built his structure when Walmart was still a regional discount chain. The early decision is what makes the difference, because the most powerful instruments — the dynasty trust, the GRAT, the CLAT — require time to work. They are not last-minute solutions.
Trusts are not for hiding assets. They are for protecting them. From creditors, yes. From taxation as well — within what the law allows. But above all, from the inevitable fragmentation that occurs when a family grows and wealth lacks structure. The Waltons have dozens of heirs. Without Walton Enterprises and the trusts, the company’s capital today would likely be dispersed among hundreds of cousins who do not know each other. With the structure, it remains a company controlled by a family with a long-term vision.
Governance matters as much as the instruments. Trusts are the container. The rules about who decides, how benefits are distributed, who can be a trustee and who cannot, what happens in the event of conflict — that is the content. And it is what determines whether the structure endures or collapses at the first family crisis.
The same logic applies in any jurisdiction. The dynasty trust has equivalents in the British Virgin Islands, the Cayman Islands, Liechtenstein, and New Zealand. The CLAT and GRAT have variants across multiple civil law systems. Technical creativity is not limited to a single legal system. It is limited, instead, by a lack of planning.

The story of the Waltons is not the story of a family that found a shortcut. It is the story of a family that made structural decisions while it was still early, surrounded itself with the right advisors, and maintained the discipline to preserve the architecture over time.

What to Expect From the Change at the Fed: Four Views on a Warsh Presidency

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

The U.S. Federal Reserve begins a new chapter this week with the arrival of Kevin Warsh as chairman of the central bank, bringing Jerome Powell’s eight years at the helm to an end. Powell will remain a member of the Board of Governors until January 2028, a decision that could influence the institution’s internal dynamics over the coming months.

This new phase comes at a delicate moment for the U.S. economy. Inflation remains elevated, while geopolitical tensions and rising energy prices linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East create the perfect backdrop for questions about when the next rate-cutting cycle will begin. In this context, several international asset managers agree that Warsh will bring his own style to the Fed, although views differ regarding the implications for monetary policy and markets.

More room for rate cuts

At Neuberger Berman, analysts believe the market remains focused on the central bank’s hawkish tone and is not clearly seeing the possibility of further rate cuts. The key idea is that Warsh views balance sheet policy and interest rate policy as complementary, meaning both tools can act simultaneously and gradual balance sheet reduction could occur alongside cuts to short-term rates rather than one happening at the expense of the other.

The asset manager’s hypothesis is that “the FOMC will remain in an easing cycle, with additional cuts bringing the policy rate to between 2.75% and 3.25% — broadly in line with the Fed’s own estimate of the neutral rate. In fact, market expectations of one or no cuts this year appear too conservative. Risks lean toward elevated inflation and delayed cuts, but the direction of travel is clear,” said Ashok Bhatia, CIO and Global Head of Fixed Income at Neuberger Berman.

For Vontobel, the main change will be in leadership style. “Warsh has openly expressed his desire to move away from the traditional consensus-based approach toward a more debate-oriented model,” said Michaela Huber, Senior Cross-Asset Strategist at the firm. The institution also emphasized that “Warsh made it clear he is a firm critic of forward guidance, arguing that it boxed the Fed into predetermined paths and reduced its ability to respond to real-time data. This approach could lead to a more dynamic (and perhaps unpredictable) Fed.” Warsh has also expressed confidence that advances in artificial intelligence could boost productivity and help contain inflation, creating room for lower rates.

“Warsh prefers trimmed mean or trimmed median inflation as the gauge to guide monetary policy. This could result in lower perceived price pressures than the indicator currently used by the Federal Reserve,” said Mickael Benhaim, Head of Fixed Income Strategy at Pictet Asset Management. This suggests interest rates could be lower under Warsh. “Currently, the trimmed mean inflation reading is 2.3%, more than 0.5% below the PCE indicator and the widest gap since the pandemic,” the expert noted.

The new Fed chairman has made it clear that he believes the current seven trillion dollars in government bond holdings are too large and has not hidden his intention to reduce them. “Over time, his preference for a smaller balance sheet, together with liquidity rules that encourage banks to hold more Treasury bills and fewer reserves, could create structurally higher term premiums on long-term debt and force private investors to hold fixed income with lower sensitivity to interest-rate changes,” the fixed-income strategist added.

Language and risks

At PIMCO, analysts believe the leadership change will affect the Federal Reserve’s language more than its decisions on rates. “Even so, we continue to expect that the next move will ultimately be a cut, and we still place the neutral interest rate at around 3%. However, the timing is uncertain. If the conflict with Iran and the energy shock prove more persistent, it could take longer for core inflation to moderate more clearly toward the Fed’s target, complicating the decision to ease monetary policy,” explained Tiffany Wilding, economist at PIMCO.

Finally, for eToro, a Fed led by Warsh will not necessarily imply more restrictive monetary policy, but it will represent a significant shift in how markets price risk. “A Federal Reserve under Warsh’s leadership would likely rely less on balance sheet expansion and signaling every move, and more on market valuation, private capital, and economic fundamentals. This points to a gradual transition toward a smaller and shorter-duration Fed balance sheet, with private banks playing a greater role in absorbing liquidity and government debt,” said Lale Akoner, Global Market Analyst at eToro.

This means that “short-term bonds could benefit from potential cuts once the energy crisis passes, while long-term bonds could see less upside potential if concerns about inflation and public debt keep yields elevated,” analysts at the firm explained. Financial companies, banks, and asset managers could therefore benefit, while highly leveraged and speculative growth companies may face more demanding market conditions.

Brazil Becomes the Main Hub for Global Investment Attraction in 2026

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

Photo courtesyCaio Megale, Chief Economist at XP Investimentos

It cannot be described as a perfect scenario, as numerous challenges still exist within the Brazilian economy. However, several global and domestic factors have aligned during the first half of 2026 to make the Brazilian market the world’s leading destination for foreign investment, according to the analysis of Caio Megale, Chief Economist at XP Investimentos.

During his participation in a panel at the 15th Investment Seminar for EFPCs, organized by Abrapp (Brazilian Association of Closed Supplementary Pension Entities), the economist explained that the country has successfully weathered the crises stemming from the “tariff shock” and has benefited from the global rise in oil prices.

“Brazil has become a major magnet for global investment. Investors perceive that the country emerged well from the tariff crisis, gained market share relative to China, and maintained its position in the United States,” said Megale. According to him, January and February saw the largest inflow of international capital in the recent history of the domestic market. “Markets soared during those two months,” he stated.

In March, war came to dominate the global financial agenda and oil prices surged. The economist from XP recalled that at the beginning of the year, the asset manager viewed a drop in oil prices as one of the main risks for Brazil, since it could have reduced fiscal revenues and exports. However, the scenario evolved in the opposite direction.

With the start of the conflict, oil surpassed 100 dollars per barrel and has remained at those levels. Although a short war and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz were initially expected, that did not happen. In this context, Brazil is seen as a relative winner. Since the discovery of the pre-salt reserves, oil has gained significant weight in the country’s trade balance and fiscal revenues.

“The impact of rising oil prices on most countries is usually negative for GDP. Only in Brazil and Russia does it tend to boost it. In relative terms, Brazil is well positioned. The trade balance is accelerating its surplus, fiscal revenues have increased, and the government is trying to use those resources to soften the effects of the domestic crisis,” Megale analyzed. He added that domestic markets continue to perform well, although not with the same intensity as during the first two months of the year, with particularly strong performances in equities and foreign exchange.

Brazilian real sees strong appreciation

Under the current outlook, especially from the perspective of foreign investors, Brazil is perceived as a winner. “Brazilian markets are performing well, for example equities and the exchange rate,” Megale pointed out. “If you ask me whether the dollar looks more likely to trade at 4.50 reais or 5.50, I would choose the first option,” he added.

The economist recalled that last year the dollar weakened globally and the real benefited from that trend. However, this year the dollar is strengthening worldwide and, even so, the real continues to appreciate against other currencies. As a result, in 2026 the real would be experiencing a “double” appreciation.

Record foreign capital inflows and market outlook

Roberto Belchior, partner at Tarpon, who also participated in the seminar, noted that a year ago few could have anticipated the sharp rebound of the Ibovespa beginning in the second half of 2025. This rally was mainly driven by the massive inflow of foreign capital — around 200 billion reais in recent months — while domestic institutional investors moved in the opposite direction, with withdrawals close to 100 billion reais since 2024.

The asset manager agrees that Brazil could become one of the main long-term structural winners in global markets. He even foresees a new bull cycle for Brazilian equities similar to the one experienced between 2002 and 2008. Since the largest gains have been concentrated in the most liquid stocks, Belchior is now betting on the potential of small caps, which are underperforming the Ibovespa by around 20%.

Domestic challenges: inflation and interest rates

To improve the economic outlook, the Selic rate would need to begin falling, especially in real terms. However, according to Megale, inflationary pressures persist due to oil prices, food prices — with the possible emergence of El Niño in the second half of the year, which could affect supply — and a demand shock driven by government policies aimed at increasing consumers’ disposable income.

All of this complicates the central bank’s task. “It still makes sense to cut the Selic because rates are very high, but the Central Bank will have to do so more gradually,” he summarized.

Inflationary pressure is global. Central banks have reversed the trend of rate cuts, sovereign bond yields have risen in developed economies, and this movement has also impacted emerging markets. Yield curves have steepened across all markets, including Brazil.

Elections and risk perception

At the beginning of the year, XP Investimentos projected a dollar exchange rate of around 5.60 reais, incorporating electoral risk. However, that view has changed. “The flow into Brazil is so strong that there is now a perception that the elections will not be as decisive,” Megale explained.

According to his analysis, both President Lula and a possible alternative represented by Flávio Bolsonaro are relatively familiar scenarios for investors, reducing uncertainty. “Economic factors appear to carry more weight in global appetite for Brazil,” he added.

XP’s political analyst, Paulo Gama, expects a very close electoral race. He highlighted that Flávio Bolsonaro has reduced his rejection levels and is trying to position himself as a more moderate option, while Lula’s government seeks to strengthen support through economic and fiscal measures.

Beyond the electoral cycle, both analysts agree that the main challenge will be the growth of public spending beginning in 2027, regardless of who governs. For Megale, that year will be marked by fiscal adjustment with a negative impact on economic growth. In this context, the Central Bank would maintain interest rates at elevated levels, around 13.5%-14% in the short term. Only from the second half of 2026 — or more likely in 2027 — could a clearer cycle of rate cuts begin, depending on the evolution of inflation and fiscal adjustment.

Innovation and Growth: The Drivers of Luxembourg as a European Investment Hub

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

Luxembourg consolidated its position in 2025 as Europe’s leading fund domicile, with assets under management reaching 8.3 trillion euros, driven by the continued growth of alternative assets, ETFs, and sustainable finance. The industry association ALFI advanced the Savings and Investments Union agenda through the publication of its “SIU Blueprint” and the study “Europe’s Productive Capital Gap,” carried out together with McGill University.

ALFI’s annual report also highlights how fund tokenization has moved from the experimental phase into a scaling stage, supported by the development of distributed ledger technology (DLT), Luxembourg’s Blockchain IV Law, and growing market adoption. At the same time, ETFs continued gaining momentum, surpassing 500 billion euros in assets, while artificial intelligence is progressively being incorporated into multiple industry processes to improve operational efficiency and client experience. The regulatory framework also continued evolving, with particular attention on AIFMD II, liquidity management tools, valuation, AML/CFT regulation, the creation of AMLA, as well as developments related to EMIR, CSDR, T+1, the Retail Investment Strategy, DORA, and SFDR.

ALFI also strengthened its collaborative approach with the launch of the Member Collaboration Hub, a digital platform integrating industry content, collaborative workspaces, and the AI-based assistant ALFIBot. During 2025, the association organized 49 events across eight countries, with more than 12,000 registered participants, and promoted new initiatives such as Digifund, the Leadership Seminar, and the Conducting Officers Seminar. Talent development remained a strategic priority, with support for two specialized master’s programs in advanced financial management and private assets.

According to Serge Weyland, CEO of ALFI, tokenization and artificial intelligence will be transformative for the industry: “They will profoundly change access to financial products and the structure and distribution of investment funds.”

Along the same lines, Corinne Lamesch, Deputy CEO of ALFI, emphasized that recent reforms strengthen Luxembourg’s competitiveness as a European fund center by adapting its legal and tax framework to new market needs. The report also underscores Europe’s challenge of connecting savings with investment by promoting retail participation and financial education through initiatives such as Personal Investing Day and the joint ALFI/McGill study.

Sustainable finance remains a structural pillar of the sector, with Luxembourg consolidating itself as one of Europe’s leading hubs for sustainable investment in both public and private markets. At the same time, the importance of markets outside Europe continues to grow, with Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East gaining prominence as key destinations for Luxembourg’s fund industry.

According to Britta Borneff, CMO of ALFI, Luxembourg has evolved into a global hub for structuring and channeling international capital. Looking ahead, Jean-Marc Goy, President of ALFI, stated that the goal is to strengthen the country’s global competitiveness through innovation, regulatory excellence, and closer ties with society by expanding access to capital markets and promoting long-term savings.

Stablecoins and Tokenized Real Assets: The New Drivers of the Crypto Market

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

According to experts, there is a unique tension in the crypto market. Evidence of this is the path bitcoin has taken during the first quarter, moving from a weak start to reaching highs not seen since February, climbing to 78,400 dollars. Now, the crypto market is beginning the second quarter in a stabilization phase. Following April’s technical rebound, institutional investor flows appear to have returned, leading to a tactical improvement rather than the start of a new bull cycle.

“In the middle of the month, bitcoin rose to 78,400 dollars last week, reaching its highest level since early February, driven by improved risk appetite following progress between the United States and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs also contributed to the rally, with 664 million dollars recorded on Friday, along with a 344 million dollar short squeeze driven by the futures market, which forced the liquidation of bearish positions. From a technical standpoint, bitcoin has broken above the 76,000-dollar resistance level that had capped prices over the past two months, potentially opening the door to further gains if this momentum is sustained,” said Simon Peters, crypto asset analyst at investment and trading platform eToro.

Market entering a consolidation phase

According to Bitwise Asset Management in its quarterly report, the underlying data remains weak: the 10 largest crypto assets declined during the first quarter, with losses ranging between 23% and 38%; crypto’s correlation with equities is at its highest level since the start of COVID; and key metrics such as active addresses, transaction activity, and trading volume remain below their peaks.

This first-quarter performance contrasts with an extraordinary flow of news. “Wall Street is moving toward the onchain environment, regulators are establishing clear rules, and institutions are allocating capital. On the other hand, the underlying data is weak. This disconnect is uncomfortable. Developments are positive, but the underlying data is not. The way to resolve this tension is simple: both perspectives are looking in different directions,” said Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise AM.

Based on this data, the asset manager believes that the first quarter was indeed difficult for crypto investors. “But the news flow is forward-looking and shows there are compelling reasons to believe the underlying data will improve. In fact, if you look closely, some signs of this can already be seen. For example, assets under management in stablecoins are at record highs, tokenized real assets are gaining prominence, and stablecoin transaction activity already exceeds that of Visa,” added Hougan.

Drawing on his experience after eight years working in the crypto world, he described the current moment as “the end phase of bear markets.” “Prices are low and fundamental data is weak, but the smartest people are beginning to build again. There is something underneath that is starting to generate excitement and, if you look closely enough, you can already make out the first outlines of a new bull market,” Hougan concluded.

The Industry Eyes the Infrastructure Investment Boom Ahead

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

FOTO (Wikipedia) Data center — Wikimedia Commons

Within the world of real assets, infrastructure has been presenting increasingly attractive prospects for investors. And the alternative asset industry is taking notice, benefiting from the favorable investment cycle for categories such as digital infrastructure and energy, among others.

Driven by a range of ongoing global trends — including digitalization and electrification — the coming years are expected to bring a boom in infrastructure investment. Consulting firm PwC projects that spending on these types of projects will rise to 6.9 trillion dollars by 2050, up from the 4.4 trillion dollars recorded in 2024.

“Throughout that period, cumulative global investment is projected to reach 151 trillion dollars, as countries modernize transportation, energy, and industrial systems to meet the demands of AI, electrification, and urbanization,” the firm said in a recent report.

And it is precisely these trends that are setting the pace for the market, according to Macquarie, one of the leading managers in the asset class. “Infrastructure opportunities are increasingly defined by long-term structural changes rather than short-term economic cycles,” the firm noted.

In line with these expectations, last year brought a rebound in fundraising for the asset class, reaching 250 billion dollars and more than doubling the 99 billion dollars raised by the industry in 2024 — the lowest figure in six years — according to data from With Intelligence, a unit of S&P Global Ratings.

For the firm, these figures suggest that investor confidence remains strong. “Fund managers have seen particularly high demand for strategies such as the energy transition and data centers,” they added in their report.

They also noted that this asset class is following the path of other alternative segments by expanding its investor base. Infrastructure managers, they said, are seeking capital from private banks “with the same urgency as their private equity and private credit peers.” This has sparked a race to develop products suited to a wide range of investor profiles.

The golden promise of AI

Beyond the competitive world of private capital, the artificial intelligence boom has had its own effect on the infrastructure asset space: the rise of data centers.

The excitement generated by this technology — described by many as a true industrial revolution that could affect every aspect of the modern economy — has created strong investor demand for digital infrastructure aimed at capturing this growth.

“The AI revolution, an extraordinary level of investment in data centers, equipment, chips, energy infrastructure, and other related areas continues to drive economic growth, and we see no signs that the engine is slowing,” said Stephen Schwarzman, CEO of Blackstone, during the firm’s first-quarter earnings call with investors.

The firm — the world’s largest alternative asset manager — is betting heavily on this trend through strategic investments in artificial intelligence. “We believe Blackstone has become the world’s largest investor in AI-related infrastructure,” the executive stated, adding that this gives them “a front-row seat” to future developments.

According to Macquarie, beyond data centers, digitalization is also driving demand for fiber-optic networks and communications infrastructure. Development is expanding across different markets as well: “Supply constraints in established markets are supporting pricing power and encouraging development in new regions.”

Overall, the path appears set. PwC estimates that annual investment in data center buildings will increase from 113.8 billion dollars in 2024 to 251.8 billion dollars by 2027. That represents a 2.2-fold increase in just a few years. Looking ahead, the consultancy expects this figure to reach 1.5 trillion dollars by 2032, with a “remarkable short-term escalation” followed by a period of stock improvement.

A more electric economy

Alongside AI demand and its data centers, energy has also become a major focus, supported by the broader global trend of the energy transition.

“Electricity demand is rising at a pace we haven’t seen in decades, driven by electrification, reindustrialization, and digital infrastructure,” said Bruce Flatt, CEO of Brookfield Corporation — another major infrastructure fund — during his own investor call. Meeting this demand will require “enormous amounts of new generation capacity,” he added, creating opportunities for solar, wind, nuclear energy, and batteries.

“While digitalization, decarbonization, and deglobalization will continue evolving, each is driving significant long-term demand for new infrastructure,” the executive added.

Macquarie agrees with this assessment, arguing that energy demand is expected to keep rising, underscoring the need for reliable and low-cost energy solutions. For the firm, solar and wind assets, along with battery storage, continue gaining traction — and market share — due to falling costs and rising demand.

In this segment, PwC projects that the infrastructure investment boom in energy will lift annual spending to 1.1 trillion dollars by 2050. This marks a sharp increase from the 631 billion dollars recorded by the industry in 2024, totaling 25 trillion dollars over the period.

“Reflecting the pace of electrification, by 2025 annual investment in energy storage will reach around 91 billion dollars,” the consultancy stated in its report, equivalent to 3.7 times 2024 levels. Capital allocated to transmission and distribution, meanwhile, is expected to grow 2.6 times to 472 billion dollars.

Nouriel Roubini Bets on U.S. Resilience: “American Exceptionalism Has Not Ended”

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

During the “2026 Bolton Advisor Conference,” held in Miami, renowned economist Nouriel Roubini outlined an optimistic view of the future of the U.S. economy. Throughout his presentation, first, and later during his conversation with the firm’s Managing Director and Chief Legal Officer, John Cataldo, he highlighted the growth potential and resilience of the U.S. economy in the coming years.

The CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, a New York-based consulting firm that provides strategic macroeconomic analysis, began his presentation with a perspective on the current global regime shift, warning about the transition “from relative political stability to relative instability, or even chaos.”

“We are now in a period in which supply shocks, especially negative ones, have become significant: covid, supply chain problems, protectionism, restrictions on migration, and geopolitical conflicts, all fragmenting and deglobalizing the world economy, generating stagflation risks,” he analyzed.

Roubini warned about the shift of the global economy toward more regulated markets and the risks of lower growth and higher inflation: “This entire set of concerns indicates that our economic regime is moving away from free markets toward regulated markets, and toward a situation where growth could be lower and inflation gradually higher, what people call stagflation,” he stated.

However, when analyzing the future of the United States, he affirmed: “American exceptionalism has not ended, the U.S. stock market is not in a bubble, our debts are not unsustainable or exorbitant. The dollar is going to remain and fluctuate, but it is not going to collapse.”

For the speaker, the key to U.S. leadership lies in its capacity for innovation and technological adaptation. “Technology, historically, is a positive supply shock that increases potential growth, productivity, and reduces the cost of producing goods and services. Artificial intelligence is just the latest manifestation of that positive shock,” he explained. In his view, the current technological revolution “is more important than the invention of fire, the introduction of agriculture, the printing press, the steam engine, or electrification.”

The economist, who also serves as Professor Emeritus of Economics at the New York University (NYU) Stern School of Business, projected that this innovation cycle will allow the United States to grow faster than other developed economies. “If the United States grows faster than Europe, eventually the dollar will be stronger, not weaker,” he stated. Roubini emphasized that the acceleration of potential growth, thanks to technology and digitalization, will be the best remedy for the country’s fiscal challenges. “Having a larger deficit and growing public debt is a problem. But if U.S. potential growth accelerates, the debt-to-GDP ratio will tend to stabilize or decline,” he argued.

Along these lines, Roubini also downplayed fears about the dollar: “The honest truth is that there is no alternative. The U.S. dollar will continue to be the world’s leading reserve currency because we remain the place to invest, among others, not the only one, but the main one.”

Referring to the financial market, he rejected the idea of a long-term bubble in U.S. assets: “If one takes a medium-term view, returns for the best private technology companies, for the Nasdaq and the S&P, will be as high as in the last twenty years, and probably much higher. We are not in a bubble. This is something secular.”

By contrast, Roubini was skeptical about the supposed cryptocurrency revolution: “Calling these things currencies is incorrect. Perhaps they are crypto assets, but they are not currencies, because anyone who knows basic monetary theory understands that for something to be money or currency it must be a unit of account. Things are priced in dollars, euros, yen; nothing is priced in Bitcoin… it has to be a stable store of value, and it is too volatile.”

Regarding Latin America, he was direct: “Latin America, like most emerging markets, is a mixed picture. One must ask which country has macroeconomic stability, because without stability there is no foundation for growth. Latin America has oscillated between booms and crises, and between right- and left-wing populism. I would say things are changing in part because many of these countries learned that loose fiscal and monetary policy is a recipe for disaster.”

In the case of Argentina, he specified: “The program (of President Javier Milei) may be radical, but the type of economic adjustment that was needed required shock therapy, and that is what is being done. It will take time and involve pain, but eventually it will produce results.”

He also addressed the rivalry between the United States and China, arguing that strategic competition will persist, but that the U.S. capacity for innovation and adaptation will be a decisive factor in maintaining global leadership: “Even before Trump, there was already a kind of cold war between the U.S. and China in economic, political, military, and security matters. That competition will continue. China is an emerging power.”

Closing his presentation, Roubini emphasized that American exceptionalism remains in force, supported by institutional strength, innovation capacity, the strength of the dollar, and the resilience of the financial system. According to his assessment, the United States is positioned to experience a cycle of accelerated growth and sustain its leadership in an increasingly fragmented and challenging world.

Greater Risk Appetite Drives Global Investment Flows Into ETPs

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

Global purchases of exchange-traded products (ETPs) totaled 212.4 billion dollars in April, marking their sixth-largest month of inflows on record, according to BlackRock data. The firm points to the return of risk appetite as the main reason behind the surge in investment flows into ETPs.

This rebound was largely driven by increased inflows into equities (148.4 billion dollars), which offset a slight decline in fixed-income purchases (52.8 billion dollars). Commodity flows returned to positive territory (3.5 billion dollars) following a period of investment outflows driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Although overall fixed-income flows were similar to the previous month (52.8 billion dollars in April versus 56.5 billion in March), the figure masked a significant rotation within the asset class, according to the firm.

The return of risk appetite caused flows into rate-sensitive fixed-income assets to fall from 38.5 billion dollars to 10.4 billion dollars — the lowest level since June 2025 — while flows into spread products increased. High-yield (HY) credit rebounded from the record outflows recorded in March (-8.9 billion dollars) to post inflows of 5.3 billion dollars in April, the highest amount since May 2025, mainly toward U.S. exposures.

Investment-grade (IG) credit ETPs and emerging-market debt ETPs recorded inflows of 10.8 billion and 8.2 billion dollars in April, respectively, following relatively stable flows for both in March. Subscriptions into inflation-linked assets also remained steady, with 2.2 billion dollars added to global inflation-linked ETPs in April.

The decline in rate-sensitive flows was largely due to the collapse in short-term rate flows, which fell from 26.6 billion dollars in March to 900 million in April, although reductions were also seen across other maturities.

In March, short-term positions accounted for 69% of total rate flows, while in April this percentage dropped to just 9%, with mixed-maturity products becoming the most popular position, accounting for more than 50% of flows.

Return to U.S. positions

Investments in U.S. assets drove the rebound in flows into equity ETPs, which rose from 39.5 billion dollars in March to 121.2 billion in April, representing the fourth-largest monthly inflow on record. Purchases of U.S. equities increased across all listing regions, with flows largely directed toward large-cap exposures.

By contrast, European equity flows (-2.5 billion dollars) and emerging-market equity flows (-26.6 billion dollars) entered negative territory, while purchases of Japanese equities fell to 1.9 billion dollars.

The global emerging-market equity flow picture was once again distorted by flows listed in the APAC region, which accounted for all outflows in April (-37.1 billion dollars) and offset increased purchases in the U.S. listing region (5.4 billion dollars) and EMEA (4.1 billion dollars).

By contrast, although European equity sales were driven mainly by U.S.-listed ETPs (76% of total European equity outflows), April also saw net sales of EMEA-listed products, marking the first month of simultaneous outflows from European equity ETPs in both listing regions since December 2024.

Laura Valdez (Franklin Templeton): “A Large Part of the Growth of the ETF Industry Will Come From the Wealth Segment”

| By Marta Rodriguez | 0 Comentarios

Photo courtesyLaura Valdez, Vice President of the ETF Business Development Team at Franklin Templeton.

Franklin Templeton closed the first quarter of the year with more than $61 billion in global assets on its ETF platform. The firm proudly highlights this figure as an example of its growth and track record in the exchange-traded fund business, which began in 2013 with the launch of its first ETF and gained further momentum in 2016 with the launch of an official platform under the Franklin LibertyShares brand.

In 2025, the firm’s ETF business experienced strong growth, surpassing projected targets. This momentum was accompanied by significant expansion in the active ETF segment and an important milestone: ETF AUM surpassed $50 billion. Overall, assets grew by approximately 60% during the year, reflecting strong client demand and the continued expansion of capabilities globally. This positive trend has continued into the beginning of the new fiscal year. Currently, Franklin Templeton’s ETF platform stands at around $70 billion in global AUM, highlighting both the pace of growth and the scale achieved.

According to Laura Valdez, Vice President of the ETF Business Development Team at Franklin Templeton, the asset manager is prepared to maintain this pace of growth and, looking ahead, the firm’s ambition is to establish itself as one of the leading global ETF platforms. To achieve this, it is committed to a differentiated approach that combines active ETFs, indexed solutions, and outcome-oriented strategies, while also facilitating access to its investment capabilities across multiple global asset classes. We discussed all of this in our interview with her.

Why do you believe this growth will come from certain regions?

We are seeing growth globally across EMEA, Asia, LatAm, and the United States. The United States is our largest market, and that is obviously a reflection of the reality of the global industry. In fact, at the end of last year, there were $13.5 trillion in assets in the U.S., while UCITS ETFs represented more than $3 trillion. Consequently, the greatest growth we have observed has taken place in the United States, where the platform is larger. However, our teams are highly motivated to grow the global ETF platform with specialists based throughout Europe. Looking toward LatAm, the team has also been highly motivated because we have seen growth in the use of UCITS ETFs.

Do you see an opportunity in Europe’s recent active UCITS ETF market?

I believe Franklin Templeton entered this market at the right time. Initially, we saw many product launches, so it took some time to understand where investor flows were heading. We launched our first vehicle in 2013, and it was directly an active ETF, because we were building on the experience and track record acquired in the U.S. market. Then, formally, our ETF platform in Europe arrived in 2017 with the launch of passive and factor-based products. Since then, we have seen significant growth in assets under management, especially over the last two years. Our view is that active ETFs are the part of the business where the greatest growth can be achieved, not only in Europe, but globally.

What explains the increase in ETF flows you mention?

On the one hand, we have seen a trend toward active ETFs with global exposure, including regional and country exposures. On the other hand, and I consider this almost the most relevant factor, ETFs used to be viewed as a passive tool, but investors no longer interpret them that way. They have become a more sophisticated tool through which we can offer different investment strategies, from equities to multi-assets, including thematic and alternative investments. This shift in investors’ interpretation and use of the vehicle is significant in Europe, even though the tax ecosystem is different.

What changes have you seen in the ETF selection process among platforms, advisors, and selectors over the last 18 months?

First, I should clarify that I focus exclusively on platforms in the United States, working with banks and broker-dealers. That said, what I am seeing is that as there are more products, there is more due diligence and more competition. For example, we have seen an increase in requirements in terms of assets because analysts are concerned that a product could close. It is striking that the asset-size requirements for ETFs have continued to increase.

On the other hand, it is important to understand that the objective is not to replicate a successful product — notwithstanding structural and regulatory differences — but to recognize that these players are not looking for the same thing in every market. For example, U.S. advisors often build portfolios using U.S.-style model portfolios because they work for larger American banks and wealth managers. However, when they build portfolios, they are reflecting the U.S. investor and not what a European or Latin American investor demands. This means that launching UCITS ETFs is not about replicating what we already have or know works; it must be something specific and tailored to the investors who use UCITS.

Regarding the wealth segment, how do you think ETFs are being interpreted and used?

Globally, within the wealth segment, this shift in perception of ETFs as something merely passive is taking place. Additionally, this is a segment that appreciates the cost efficiency and transparency offered by ETFs, both in pricing and, in the case of the United States, because of tax advantages. This leads me to believe that a large part of the growth of the ETF industry will come from the wealth segment.

What does the word innovation mean in the ETF business?

I think a very interesting reflection — and one we do not make often enough — is that ETFs are being used as a real innovation tool. For example, in 2024 in the United States, we saw the launch of all the ETFs in the crypto and digital assets space. In other words, the mutual fund structure was not used to design how to invest in this new asset class. That is something significant. In addition, the SEC continues approving different digital currencies and new products, and we know this serves as a benchmark for other markets around the world. Over the past two years, we have seen new innovations, such as private fixed-income ETFs and ETF share classes for mutual funds. I believe all of this is very interesting, although I think there is still development needed in terms of market infrastructure.

Tokenized ETFs or private market ETFs: which do you believe will be the next frontier crossed by this type of vehicle?

As an employee of Franklin Templeton, I will tell you that I feel fortunate to have a CEO who has dedicated many resources to exploring blockchain technology. As a result, we have developed very interesting products such as Benji, which is a money market mutual fund that exists on the blockchain and is a tokenized product. In this sense, we already have ETFs that have been tokenized and are being distributed. On the other hand, I believe we must be very cautious when talking about private market ETFs because the foundation of the ETF is that it has a fully liquid structure.

Finally, how do you plan to compete for your place among the major ETF providers?

We are in a market with a high concentration of large players, but with market evolution and innovation, we are seeing a reduction in that concentration. For example, the growth of active ETFs has created an opportunity for Franklin Templeton to bring all its specialized portfolio management teams into the ETF space, a vehicle that offers a broad range of strategies. What is interesting is that if you analyze what is happening in the active ETF segment, that reality has begun to change. In the United States, the market share of the top 10 active ETF providers has been declining. In 2020, they held 82% of the assets, and by the end of the first quarter of 2026, that figure had fallen to 67%.