On August Inflation and the Fed’s Rate Hike

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The advance August inflation figure delivered a negative surprise. Headline CPI came in as expected (+0.4% month-over-month) and remained flat year-over-year at +3.4%. However, core inflation breached the +0.2% mark to reach +0.3%, despite a modest slowdown in year-over-year growth (dropping from 2.5% to 2.4%).

This uptick—driven primarily by mobile phone and communication services, airfares, and lodging—could leak into the August core PCE readings due on the 30th, likely triggering a year-over-year increase of ~+0.3% (up from 0.2% in July).

The postponement of the expected summit between Iran and the Gulf nations—now pushed to Sunday to formulate an alternative transit route through the Strait of Hormuz—alongside new comments from Trump (“Iran is desperate to make a deal quickly”) convey urgency ahead of the upcoming November midterms and shift leverage to Tehran. Consequently, Brent crude rose to $109 per barrel, raising the odds of a prolonged monetary tightening cycle (markets are now pricing in nearly four Fed rate hikes between now and the summer of 2027).

Although the overall trajectory of inflation continues to move closer to the 2% target (as reflected by the average of trimmed-mean, supercore, and sticky inflation metrics), progress has not been as fast as the Federal Reserve’s FOMC would prefer. Adding to these concerns are the price and growth impacts of massive AI investments and strong nominal economic activity, with Atlanta Fed real final sales (which measure total output value adjusted for inflation excluding inventory shifts) holding at three-year highs.

Given this setup, the probability of a 25-basis-point hike (bringing rates to 4%) jumped toward ~90% over the weekend. This presented Kevin Warsh with an opportunity to build market credibility through an insurance hike—one unlikely to derail an economy expanding at nominal growth rates above 7%. Standing pat, by contrast, would have seemed contradictory following his hawkish tone at Jackson Hole.

Warsh entered the decision balancing two forces: accommodating a vocal president or delivering what the bond market was demanding to secure its confidence. While Trump holds immense executive authority, the bond market exerts its own formidable influence on policy.

Warsh opted to raise rates by 25 basis points in a unanimous decision—the first increase since 2023—aiming to guide inflation back toward the 2% target over a reasonable horizon. Statements and the updated dot plot (one additional hike in 2026 priced in for December, a pause through 2027, and cuts starting in 2028) frame this as a mini-cycle of preemptive hikes. The Fed’s upward revision to the terminal rate is supported both by AI-driven productivity gains—a view Warsh strongly champions—and by the continuation of pro-cyclical, expansionary fiscal policies dating back to Trump’s first administration.

Fixed Income Positioning and Key Drivers

Within fixed income, if current inflation forecasts hold, positive surprises are more likely moving forward. With the market having largely priced in the Fed’s stance, a neutral duration posture appears prudent. Close attention should be paid to labor market indicators that could shift the Fed’s path if momentum accelerates, including wage gains among job switchers, shifts in marginally attached workers, hiring demand within AI infrastructure, and jobless claims trends.

The Bank of Japan’s dovish 25-basis-point increase—taking its policy rate to a 30-year high—is another focal point. Higher Japanese yields and increased yen volatility could impact the carry trade, which historically provided funding flows into U.S. fixed income markets.

Energy price relief could offer another upside surprise, following news that the Saudi East-West pipeline can resume operation at half capacity immediately, with full repairs slated within six weeks. Meanwhile, central bank activity tracking indicates a clear inflection point away from global monetary easing, suggesting softer industrial momentum entering 2027.

Equities: Impact of the Hike Mini-Cycle on AI

For equity markets, elevated borrowing costs tied to this rate-hike mini-cycle may disproportionately pressure AI companies carrying leveraged balance sheets. Early-stage startups lacking credit ratings—such as specialized neocloud providers—may encounter higher hurdles securing funding for data center builds.

Compounding this are growing public objections to data center construction (Morgan Stanley research indicates 75% of Americans and 83% of Democrats oppose hosting such facilities locally; as a result, $156 billion in projects were delayed or canceled in 2025, followed by another $130 billion in Q1 2026). These constraints could limit total compute supply, benefiting early-moving hyperscalers.

Hyperscalers have secured significant long-term, fixed-rate financing at borrowing costs well below current 10-year Treasury yields, leveraging their investment-grade credit profiles.

Slower deployment of AI capital expenditures—which contributed ~0.6% and ~0.4% to GDP in Q1 and Q2, respectively—could also exert downward pressure on overall inflation readings.

From a historical perspective, analysis of the past six U.S. rate-tightening cycles indicates that while equities often experience short-term volatility following an initial rate hike, broad indexes generally post positive total returns 12 months later. The primary exception remains 2022, when the Fed fell significantly behind the curve.

“Father Time Always Wins”: Warren Buffett’s Final Lesson as He Becomes Chairman Emeritus of Berkshire

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The legendary Warren Buffett recently turned 96 and, in accordance with the succession roadmap designed many years prior, has fully relinquished the reins of Berkshire Hathaway by assuming the duties of Chairman Emeritus. However, he did not miss the opportunity to leave one more lesson as part of his intangible—yet equally valuable—legacy.

Without a trace of defeat, Warren Buffett acknowledged the only opponent no investor can defeat. “Father Time always wins,” he wrote to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders as he explained his decision to become Chairman Emeritus. But in his case, he added something more: “he has been generous to me.”

The phrase summarizes far more than just a change in corporate title. In the letter accompanying Berkshire Hathaway’s announcement, Buffett does not write as someone abandoning a company after six decades, but as someone observing the passage from one generation to another, evaluating which part of his work should survive when he is no longer at the helm.

Since 1965, Buffett has been the central figure of Berkshire. Now he leaves the chairmanship of the Board, and Howard G. Buffett, his son, will assume that responsibility, while Greg Abel will continue at the operational helm as Chief Executive Officer. Warren Buffett will remain as a member of the Board.

The transition, therefore, does not represent a rupture. In fact, Buffett himself presents it as the logical conclusion of a process that had been in preparation for years. The novelty of his message lies elsewhere: in how he explains what he considers truly important to preserve at Berkshire.

And his answer is surprising because it is not a stock, an acquisition, a cash reserve, or any other financial asset—it is something he considers far more valuable: culture.

The True Asset Is Off the Balance Sheet

Buffett writes that Greg Abel manages the company, while Howard Buffett will bear the responsibility of protecting its culture and values. He immediately establishes an unusual hierarchy in business parlance: both elements possess, he says, a value superior to that of any asset recorded on Berkshire’s balance sheet.

The statement is especially meaningful coming from the man who built Berkshire into one of the largest business conglomerates in the world and who for decades was considered one of the primary benchmarks of long-term investing.

At the moment of handing over control, Buffett does not speak of maintaining a specific level of profitability, keeping a particular portfolio, or reaching a certain market capitalization; he speaks of preserving a way of doing business.

It is precisely there that one of the keys to his legacy emerges: Berkshire was not built solely around the investments that Buffett and Charlie Munger selected. It was also built around a philosophy—thinking in terms of decades, avoiding impulsive decisions, maintaining a unique relationship with shareholders, and granting managers of acquired companies a considerable degree of autonomy.

That is why succession does not simply consist of finding someone who can sit in Buffett’s chair; it consists of proving whether an organization can maintain its principles when the person who embodied them for more than six decades is no longer in command.

An Insurance Policy for Shareholders

Buffett leaves in his letter one of his customary metaphors to explain his son’s role: Howard Buffett, he says, should be viewed as “an insurance policy” owned by the shareholders—one that everyone hopes never to have to use. Coming from Buffett, this is telling.

Furthermore, Greg Abel is at the operational helm. Howard does not step in to manage Berkshire’s day-to-day operations, but rather to act as a custodian of what does not appear on the financial statements: culture and values. This division of responsibilities demonstrates the extent to which the succession was designed as an institutional process rather than merely replacing an individual.

Buffett points out that Howard has served as a director of Berkshire for 33 years—a period even longer than the time he himself had to learn before taking control of the company at age 34. In this sense, the message is clear: succession does not begin the day Buffett steps down from a role; in reality, it began decades earlier.

Time as an Enemy and as an Ally

There is an irony in all of this that says much about Warren Buffett: for decades, the investor turned time into one of Berkshire’s primary advantages. While much of the financial market moves to the rhythm of quarterly earnings, Buffett and Munger built their reputation on patience and the ability to think long term.

In his letter, Buffett recalls precisely that from the beginning they sought shareholders who thought “in terms of decades rather than quarters.” Now, however, time appears from a different perspective. Buffett has just turned 96, and after more than 60 years leading Berkshire, he acknowledges that the time has come to complete the transition.

Yet he does not present it as a tragedy or a crisis—quite the contrary. He says he still has “the best job in the world” and has never felt better about what lies ahead. This is likely one of the most interesting aspects of the letter: Buffett does not describe his departure as the end of an era to be mourned, but as a natural consequence of the very same principle he recommended to his shareholders for decades: thinking long term.

Time ultimately wins, but preparation can determine what happens next. Buffett is not leaving Berkshire; rather, Berkshire no longer needs him to run it. There is another important distinction: Buffett is not departing Berkshire entirely, as he continues as a director and shareholder. In his letter, he expresses his desire to remain a shareholder alongside the rest of the owners.

That changes the meaning of the transition. The man who for decades made the fundamental decisions will no longer occupy the position from which they are made, but he will continue to observe the company’s evolution from within and participate in it as an owner.

This aligns seamlessly with the relationship he always sought to build with shareholders: sitting on the same side of the table. That is why, rather than a farewell, the letter carries the tone of passing the baton. Buffett seems to be saying that Berkshire no longer needs him to serve as its operational core because key decisions can be made by others and because, at least in his view, the principles he considers essential are deeply rooted.

Greg Abel is proof of that trust. Buffett asserts that his expectations for him were very high from the start, and that Abel has exceeded them. He also states that Abel has been making the truly important decisions for some time, and that he has never had reason to doubt any of them.

The statement carries special weight: succession does not begin now simply because Abel has officially received power; it formalizes a dynamic that was already largely in place.

From Charlie Munger to Howard Buffett

The letter also has a generational dimension: throughout much of Berkshire’s modern history, Buffett and Charlie Munger were inseparable from the company’s identity. Munger passed away in November 2023, just days shy of his 100th birthday. Now Buffett steps back further, doing so by leaving behind an organization where continuity no longer depends on two historic figures at the helm.

That may represent one of Berkshire’s greatest challenges in the coming years: demonstrating that what worked extraordinarily well under Buffett and Munger can continue to work when both belong to the company’s history. Buffett appears confident that it will, not because he believes a replacement for himself exists, but because he believes the organization he built can prove more enduring than the man who built it.

Perhaps that is why the final section of his letter is more significant than the corporate announcement itself. Buffett thanks the shareholders for the trust they placed in him and calls serving as their chairman “the privilege of a lifetime.” He then returns to the concept of time: “Father Time always wins,” he writes.

Immediately, however, he refrains from framing the phrase as a tragedy, writing instead that time was generous to him because it allowed him to see Berkshire reach a point where he feels more confident than ever about its future. That is perhaps the true message and final lesson of his last letter as Chairman.

A company’s success consists not merely of how much capital it can accumulate while its founder is at the helm, but whether it can preserve what made it unique once the founder is no longer there. Buffett appears to have reached that conclusion after more than six decades.

The man who turned patience into an investment strategy ultimately faces his own ultimate long-term test: handing over control and trusting that time—which inevitably ends all individual leadership—will not also bring an end to the philosophy he built.

T. Rowe Price Launches Active Securitized Credit ETF

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T. Rowe Price, a global investment management firm, has announced the addition of the T. Rowe Price Securitized Income ETF to its product suite. The new fully transparent, actively managed fixed income exchange-traded fund (ETF) has begun trading on the NYSE Arca.

The T. Rowe Price Securitized Income ETF is designed for investors seeking to enhance periodic portfolio returns while diversifying fixed income exposure beyond traditional corporate and government bonds. Actively managed and backed by the firm’s fundamental research capabilities, TSCZ seeks to generate high current income through a portfolio diversified across U.S. securitized credit sectors, such as asset-backed securities (ABS), commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), collateralized loan obligations (CLO), and non-agency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS). TSCZ carries a total expense ratio of 0.20%.

TSCZ is actively co-managed by Jean-Marc Breaux, CFA®, and Ramón de Castro. Breaux is Head of Securitized Products in the Fixed Income division and brings 20 years of investment experience, eight of them at T. Rowe Price. De Castro is a sector portfolio manager in the Fixed Income division with over 30 years of experience, 14 at the firm. He also serves as portfolio manager for the T. Rowe Price GNMA Fund (Ticker: PRGMX) and oversees residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) allocations across several multisector fixed income portfolios.

With this addition, T. Rowe Price’s ETF lineup expands to 35 total funds, spanning fixed income, equity, multi-asset, digital assets, and thematic strategies. Each ETF solution brings key advantages such as tax efficiency, competitive expense ratios, and the flexibility to buy and sell shares throughout the trading day. All funds leverage the rigorous fundamental research of T. Rowe Price’s analysts and portfolio managers, focused on asking better questions to deliver better client outcomes.

Separately, T. Rowe Price recently announced an agreement to acquire F/m Investments LLC, a specialized fixed income and ETF asset manager. Expected to close in early 2027, the transaction will increase its fixed income assets under management by nearly 9%, more than double its volume in fixed income ETFs, and expand its separately managed accounts (SMA) business. Alongside today’s launch, this transaction reflects the firm’s ongoing commitment to expanding its fixed income ETF capabilities and diversifying the suite of solutions available to its clients.

The Shadow of ‘Terminator’ and Regulation Creep into the AI Investment Cycle

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Artificial intelligence (AI) has become a recurring topic of discussion with investment firms. When asked whether we have reached the peak of investment in this theme—from both fixed income and equity perspectives—they insist we have not. They argue that there is still room and investment opportunities left within the AI universe, even following warnings from key industry figures—such as Dario Amodei (CEO of Anthropic), Sam Altman (CEO of OpenAI), and Elon Musk (xAI)—regarding the need to slow down development due to safety risks.

The impact of the current wave of investment in artificial intelligence could exceed $20 trillion. According to Capital Group, tech megacap capital expenditure is accelerating at a rate that could eclipse China’s industrialization process, referencing a benchmark of reaching $30 trillion by 2032.

“There is no doubt that artificial intelligence is becoming one of the primary drivers of economic activity. However, it should not be understood solely as a technology theme, but as an investment cycle with broad implications for the economy as a whole. The artificial intelligence ecosystem spans multiple levels, from semiconductor design and software development to power supply, infrastructure construction, and sectors integrating the new technology into their operations, such as media and financial services,” they note.

Debate or Marketing?

This massive investment opportunity has coincided in recent days with suggestions to moderate the pace of technological development, which had a slight impact on semiconductor companies while favoring software firms. “Leading model developers have little incentive to voluntarily slow down a technology they view as strategic, especially when Chinese competitors are just six to eight months behind,” according to Banca March.

This debate, combined with a higher interest rate outlook, could, according to Banca March’s latest analysis, “become the perfect backdrop for a temporary pullback in equity markets.” However, the firm’s experts downplay the concern, noting that “the narrative surrounding a potential slowdown in AI development seems to reflect an institutional marketing strategy ahead of two of the largest IPOs in history rather than an operational reality.”

“Competition in this space is extraordinarily intense, global, and decentralized, making any coordination attempt among primary players extremely difficult. Even more so when the Trump administration has been openly opposed, ruling out government interventions in the sector,” they add.

In the view of Flavien del Pino, Head of BDL Capital Management for Spain, the recent correction in tech companies most exposed to AI is not merely a cyclical market movement, but reflects a fundamental doubt regarding the actual profitability of this technology.

“Hyperscaler spending is accelerating to unprecedented levels and is destroying free cash flow generation, accumulating debt that will approach $2 trillion. To justify the $7 trillion that will be invested in data centers through 2030 with a return on capital employed (ROCE) of just 10%, the sector would need to generate $3.6 trillion annually in new revenues—a figure higher than the entire current global market for software and IT services,” he explains regarding the resulting capital return uncertainty.

Brakes on Investment

So, is there any factor that could genuinely stall AI investment? According to experts, a key issue will be national regulations—specifically, the outlook for AI regulation in the United States and potential restrictions on data center development. In the view of Libby Cantrill, Head of Public Policy at PIMCO, while the U.S. Congress may begin to focus more intensely on AI safety and federal government involvement appears inevitable at some point, “we are unlikely to see a comprehensive federal regulatory framework enacted into law in the near term.” Looking ahead to the next Congress, she notes there will likely be greater scrutiny on the issue, though “for now, AI regulation does not appear imminent.”

In the absence of federal progress, Cantrill believes “states are likely to continue moving forward with AI safety legislation” and taking the lead on data center restrictions. In this domain, municipalities in 32 states have already moved forward with moratoria, and up to 26 states are currently considering statewide moratoria.

Against this backdrop, Cantrill anticipates that “in 2027, given the political landscape, we could see greater friction in AI infrastructure development, with a likely widespread increase in data center construction costs” and, in some cases, states opting to halt them entirely. This would imply, she concludes, “a more complex patchworks for both companies and investors.”

Implications for Investors

From an investor’s perspective, Andrew Heiskell, Equity Strategist at Wellington Management, and Brian Barbetta, Global Industry Analyst at Wellington Management, consider that the debate is no longer centered on whether AI is relevant, but on a more complex question: which links in the ecosystem will capture the value generated?

“In such a dynamic environment, long-term technological progress and short-term public market expectations are unlikely to move at the same pace. Instead, we should expect continued moments where investor sentiment overvalues or undervalues shifting business and technological realities,” hold both Wellington Management experts.

Their position is that investing in the constantly evolving AI universe requires not only stock selection, robust analytical capabilities, and top-tier active management, but also a comprehensive understanding of its ecosystem, which can offer investors greater composure amid market volatility and ambiguity. “Simply diversifying across a basket of AI-exposed stocks is unlikely to capture the full potential of this unique and transformative technology. Conversely, active managers with strong analytical capabilities who recognize that leadership will rotate as technology evolves and market conditions change will be better positioned to generate returns and manage risk in this new AI era,” they argue.

Furthermore, for investors, it is becoming increasingly difficult to avoid tech megacaps altogether, given their weight in global equity benchmarks and their critical role in driving productivity, innovation, and economic growth. However, “investors do not need to concentrate their exposure in a handful of U.S. large-cap companies to participate in long-term digitization and artificial intelligence trends,” warns Yan Taw Boon, Head of Thematic Strategies for Asia at Neuberger.

In his view, one of the most important current developments is that the AI infrastructure boom is broadening beyond technology itself. “Capital is increasingly flowing into sectors such as energy, construction, industrial automation, and the manufacturing of specialized components required to build and operate AI data centers. This creates a broader set of opportunities for investors seeking exposure to AI-driven growth while reducing reliance on a small group of dominant tech stocks,” the Neuberger expert explains.

For Taw, diversifying exposure across geographies, sectors, and market capitalizations will be essential so that “investors can participate in the structural growth of the tech sector while mitigating concentration risk.”

Goldman Sachs Alternatives Captures $11.7 Billion for Private Equity with the Final Close of West Street Capital Partners IX

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Goldman Sachs Alternatives has announced the final close of West Street Capital Partners IX and its related vehicles. The fund closed with $9.6 billion in total capital to invest in leading companies worldwide to create value. Combined with the more than $1.6 billion raised to date for West Street Asia Equity Partners I, the dedicated private equity strategy for Asia-Pacific, and $500 million allocated to related co-investment vehicles, total capital raised globally reaches $11.7 billion.
According to the asset manager, this represents the ninth generation of Goldman Sachs Alternatives’ flagship buyout platform. Since 1986, the team has invested over $89 billion globally, partnering with companies and management teams to drive growth. The fund’s capital comes from a diverse group of institutional and high-net-worth investors across North America, Europe, and the Middle East, along with significant commitments from Goldman Sachs and its employees. In addition to the capital raised for this fund and its related vehicles, Goldman Sachs Alternatives is independently raising capital for West Street Asia Equity Partners I, its dedicated pan-Asian private equity strategy focused on mid-market control investments and select growth investments across the region. Following its initial aggregate close, WSAEP I has raised over $1.6 billion to date.
The fund will maintain its strategy, predominantly focused on upper-middle-market control investments. Leveraging the team’s deep sector expertise, the fund is expected to target investments in the business services, financial services, technology, healthcare, consumer, and energy transition sectors. In a dynamic investment environment, the team is strategically positioned to identify new opportunities across these sectors, utilizing operating models that have proven resilient across different market cycles.
Brad Gross, Global Co-Head of Private Equity at Goldman Sachs Alternatives, noted: “This capital raise builds on our long-standing track record as a leading private equity platform, leveraging Goldman Sachs’ global scale, network, and expertise to identify differentiated investments and drive value for our portfolio companies. The enthusiasm of our global investor base reflects strong confidence in the strength of our franchise and our ability to deliver attractive returns across market cycles.”
Meanwhile, Michael Bruun, Global Co-Head of Private Equity at Goldman Sachs Alternatives, added: “Against a backdrop of macroeconomic and geopolitical shifts, public market volatility, and rapid technological transformation, our experienced team is well-positioned to identify areas of opportunity and execute resilient investment strategies. Our extensive team of experts and advisors also possesses the tools and resources needed to help portfolio companies navigate the ongoing artificial intelligence transformation and scale their businesses.”
WSCP IX has already invested in several companies across various geographies and sectors, including Schellman, a leading U.S.-based provider of cybersecurity audit and compliance services; Numantec, a leading European developer, manufacturer, and distributor of medical devices and vascular access/infusion consumables; Excel Sports, a premier independent U.S.-based sports agency and representation firm; and Mace, a global program and project management company serving infrastructure and built environment clients, based in Europe.
In Asia, WSAEP I builds on Goldman Sachs Alternatives’ long history as one of the earliest private equity investors in the region, with approximately $17 billion deployed. With over 30 years of investment experience in Asia, the team seeks to collaborate with management teams to drive growth, operational transformation, and long-term value creation.
Portfolio companies of the funds benefit from GS Value Accelerator, a proprietary platform that helps build enduring businesses and generate incremental value. Value Accelerator offers a premier global network of operating advisors and sector experts who can support companies in their technology, data, and artificial intelligence transformation, revenue growth, talent and organizational strategy, operational excellence, finance and strategy, and sustainability optimization. The Private Equity division at Goldman Sachs Alternatives is led by its Global Co-Heads, Brad Gross and Michael Bruun. Stephanie Hui is Head of Private and Growth Equity in Asia-Pacific and Head of Private Investing in Asia-Pacific at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

The Long-Term Effects of AI Deployment

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Photo courtesyDrew T. Matus, Chief Market Strategist at MetLife Investment Management.

The second edition of the Funds Society Leaders Summit, held in collaboration with CFA Society Spain, featured an analysis by MetLife Investment Management, in which Drew T. Matus, Chief Market Strategist at the firm, focused on how he views the world right now and how he believes it will evolve; its risks and, above all, the impact of artificial intelligence.

Matus stated that growth is being driven primarily by AI: the United States and Korea are experiencing accelerated growth, but the rest of the world is facing some difficulties in recovering from last year’s weakness. All of this occurs within a context of inflation and high yields, “which is not necessarily a bad thing.”

The expert observes that, despite geopolitical volatility and inflation, recession expectations in any of these regions remain quite low. “People feel very comfortable that the status quo will hold indefinitely, which is somewhat strange given that yields are normalizing and there is significant geopolitical risk,” he comments, pointing out that the only country behaving remotely abnormally compared to the recent period is Japan.

Matus explains that artificial intelligence, as it spreads across the globe and is used more frequently in different regions, “could narrow the gap between the United States and the rest of the world in terms of productivity growth, which would imply reducing the differential in potential GDP growth.” This circumstance could provide a solution to issues such as government deficits, because according to the expert, “if you manage to grow out of the deficit, you will be in a fairly favorable position.”

However, according to Matus, the future could bring either a narrowing or a widening of this gap. Ultimately, “it will depend on policymakers, in this case in Europe, although the same applies to parts of Asia,” meaning “it is up to policymakers to determine whether they want to close this gap or not, and how to regulate the emerging technologies that could enable it.”

Risks

One of the main risks Matus sees regarding AI does not lie in the promise of the technology itself. CEOs believe it is enough to simply implement this technology in their companies and that giving everyone access to the tool will solve everything on its own. “But the reality is that you need a company designed to use the new technology,” he notes. From an operational standpoint, leveraging it is far more difficult than at any previous time, and now “CEOs have begun to realize that they have made many promises they cannot keep.”

Matus highlights the lack of evidence suggesting that AI is leaving young people out of work. In fact, in the United States, hiring is happening, but for experienced workers, “which is precisely the opposite of what is intended with AI, because experienced workers are the ones who can be replaced and are usually more expensive.” Ultimately, he observes neither an increase in unemployment or underemployment, nor high productivity levels in the United States. Specifically, the latest quarterly figures align with the average of the last 10 years, and even the last 50 years. “If we look for AI in the data, we haven’t found it yet,” he states. Therefore, he sees an opportunity for the markets, “as we have not yet seen the positive impact of AI on the broader economy, neither in the United States nor, frankly, anywhere else.”

Another aspect Matus finds concerning is that a sector that should benefit from artificial intelligence and all the productivity gains it brings—the financial sector—is not experiencing a strong market run on par with the tech sector or the broader market. “The market has bought into the idea that AI will be a revolutionary technology, but conclusive proof is still lacking,” Matus notes.

Ultimately, the expert concludes that the market is betting on short-term optimism around AI. But the reality is that AI will take time to integrate into the economy. For this reason, he anticipates that as AI spreads throughout the economy, “it will have all the effects that are promised in the short term, but we won’t see them anytime soon.”

The Long Term

How do we expect this to play out in the long term? To understand productivity gains in the United States, Matus points to technology and its optimal utilization. The methodology the country used to achieve this—through employee training—was “the right one, whether due to lower regulation or any other reason.”

Matus puts figures on potential U.S. growth through the application of AI: between 4% and 4.5% over the next 10 years, “something we have never seen before in a developed market economy.” It would only be comparable to what was seen following China’s entry into the WTO. Matus highlights at this point that this is one of the reasons why, when analyzing the U.S. deficit or perceiving that Americans do not care about it, “it is because we really don’t care; we believe we can outgrow it.”

There will also be shifts in the economy, as has happened in other technological revolutions. In fact, Matus does not rule out that some of the largest companies in 2025 will no longer hold those positions in the future, just as occurred with the giants of the 1990s. What became clear then—and what Matus considers a risk when weighing artificial intelligence and all the changes occurring in the global economy—is that the companies that figured out how to use the new technology are precisely the ones that made it into that group.

“One or two of them are directly related to technology, but in general, they simply take a different approach to new technologies. So, when reflecting on what the world will look like in 2035, 2040, and 2050, the winners and losers will not necessarily be the names appearing today on the front pages of the Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal. It is really about companies that are figuring out how to use the technology being offered to them,” he concludes.

State Street Names Mostapha Tahiri President of Its Alpha Platform and Ann Fogarty Chief Operating Officer

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State Street Corporation has announced the appointment of new executives to support the next phase of the firm’s growth strategy and its continued focus on driving innovation and transformation to help clients achieve better outcomes in increasingly complex global markets. Specifically, Mostapha Tahiri, previously Chief Operating Officer, will become President of State Street Alpha, assuming responsibility for Alpha, Charles River Development (CRD), and a suite of innovative platform solutions; and Ann Fogarty, previously Chief Operating Officer of Investment Services, has been named Enterprise Chief Operating Officer.

Regarding Tahiri’s appointment, the firm clarifies that Alpha is State Street’s leading end-to-end (front-to-back) integrated platform, combining CRD’s front-office technology with the firm’s servicing, markets, and data capabilities to offer investors a single platform experience across the entire investment lifecycle. Drawing on his deep commercial, client, technological, AI, and operational experience, Tahiri will assume end-to-end responsibility for commercial strategy, product strategy, technology, and client delivery for Alpha and CRD. Leveraging the strength of this platform, Tahiri will focus on accelerating growth, strengthening execution, transforming the operating model, and maximizing the full potential of innovation across the business.

Tahiri will also serve as Chair for Asia-Pacific (APAC). Having spent much of his career serving clients in APAC and following his recent return to Singapore, Tahiri is ideally positioned to oversee State Street’s business relationships in the region with key clients, regulatory bodies, and strategic partners. He will continue to serve on State Street’s Executive Committee. This executive has nearly 30 years of international experience in the asset management, asset servicing, investment platforms, and financial technology sectors. His track record includes leading and transforming complex global businesses and driving initiatives where clients, technology, and operations intersect.

Another announced change affects Ann Fogarty, previously Chief Operating Officer of Investment Services, who has been named Enterprise Chief Operating Officer, succeeding Tahiri. In her new role, she will also report to O’Hanley. As Enterprise Chief Operating Officer, she will lead the firm’s global technology and operations areas and drive State Street’s technological modernization and AI agenda, reflecting the growing convergence of technology, operations, data, resilience, and client service across the industry. She will continue to co-lead the firm’s global transformation program alongside John Woods, Chief Financial Officer (CFO), helping accelerate innovation, build greater scale and efficiency, reduce cycle times, and further strengthen the quality of client outcomes across State Street’s businesses. Fogarty will continue to serve on the firm’s Executive Committee. Fogarty brings nearly four decades of industry experience. She has led key client operations for Investment Services, where she drove operational simplification, resilience, and enterprise-wide global transformation initiatives. Fogarty also chairs the Supervisory Board of State Street Bank International GmbH (SSBI), our principal European bank.

Following these changes, Ron O’Hanley, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of State Street, highlighted: “Our clients face increasingly complex markets and operating environments, and are demanding with increasing frequency that technology and operations function seamlessly together. Mostapha’s focus on Alpha—one of State Street’s most differentiating businesses and a core strategic priority for the firm—and Ann’s leadership in global operations and technology provide dedicated direction in areas that drive how we create value for clients. These appointments reinforce the strength of our leadership team and position us to continue executing for clients while investing in the future of our business.”

Together, these appointments establish dedicated leadership in two key areas critical to client needs and the firm’s long-term strategy. They also reflect State Street’s commitment to leading alongside its clients as technology, AI, data, and operations shape the future of investment and investment infrastructure. Both appointments are effective as of 09/14/2026.

The US Sets the Pace While Emerging Markets Accelerate the Global “Ultra-Rich” Factory

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Photo courtesyThe Wealth Report 2026 (Knight Frank)

Global wealth creation has surged at an extraordinary pace over the last five years. According to the new Wealth Sizing Model included in The Wealth Report 2026 by Knight Frank, the global population of Ultra-High-Net-Worth Individuals (UHNWIs)—defined as those with net assets exceeding $30 million—has expanded from 551,435 in 2021 to reach 713,626 worldwide.

As detailed in the document, this rapid expansion has been decisively dominated by the United States, which generated 41% of new ultra-high-net-worth individuals thanks to the depth and liquidity of its capital markets, as well as the powerful multiplier effect of the technology sector and artificial intelligence (AI). Meanwhile, Asia-Pacific and India are consolidating their positions as secondary drivers of structural growth.

Figures from the report reveal that, over the past five years, 89 people around the world crossed the $30 million threshold every single day. The strength of U.S. financial infrastructure will drive the country from concentrating 35% of global UHNWIs in 2026 to a projected 41% by the year 2031, adding more than 136,000 new ultra-high-net-worth individuals. To accommodate this relentless U.S. expansion, nearly every other country—including China, which will drop from its current 17% share to 15%—will see its global market share contract.

However, the report highlights clear geographical dispersion looking ahead, driven by rapidly maturing economies. Indonesia leads percentage growth forecasts, with a projected 82% surge in its UHNWI population by 2031. It is followed closely by Saudi Arabia and Poland (both above 60%), as well as Vietnam (nearly 60%), underscoring the speed at which new wealth hubs are forming, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East.

Global UHNWI and Billionaire Charts. Source: Knight Frank, The Wealth Report 2026

The billionaire segment confirms this shift toward global diversification. Although Asia-Pacific holds the highest total count (1,116 compared to North America’s 965), the fastest growth rates over the next five years will be registered in Saudi Arabia (+183%), Poland (+123%), Sweden (+81%), and Australia (+77%).

The Australian case stands out for its economic resilience and depth: its UHNWI population is projected to grow nearly 60% (reaching 26,095 individuals), supported by an ecosystem combining commodities with an increasingly sophisticated financial services and technology sector.

For its part, India represents a story of large-scale consolidation. After seeing its ultra-wealthy population skyrocket 63% between 2021 and 2026, the country is set to add an additional 27% by 2031, surpassing 25,000 UHNWIs. This progress reflects the transformation of its economy toward a model backed by a deeper equity market, greater private equity penetration, and increasingly established global investment networks.

mRNA Melanoma Vaccine: What the Market Measures and How Health Managers Interpret It

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Julia Kung (Groupama AM) a la izquierda, Christian Fay (BNP Paribas AM) en el centro y Sara Torrecilla (Candriam) a la derecha.
Photo courtesy

When Moderna and MSD announced that their personalized mRNA melanoma vaccine had met its primary endpoints in Phase 3, the market did not wait for the fine print. Within hours, both companies added tens of billions of dollars in market capitalization, without a peer-reviewed scientific publication or a complete breakdown of efficacy and safety yet available. Funds Society consulted three fund managers with exposure to the healthcare sector—Candriam, BNP Paribas AM, and Groupama AM—to understand exactly what that price is discounting, and what needs to happen for the bet to hold.

“Investors are assigning value to the possibility that this approach could work across multiple tumor types and treatment settings,” summarizes Sara Torrecilla, Senior Biotech Analyst at Candriam, regarding a stock rally that at its peak added roughly $90 billion in combined market value and settled around $60 billion net. It is, in her words, a warning sign as much as a point of enthusiasm: the peak sales estimates already circulating in the market, in the tens of billions of dollars, “should be viewed as market assumptions, not clinical evidence.”

Groupama AM, manager of the Global Disruption fund, reaches a similar diagnosis from a different angle. “The surge in stock prices for Moderna and Merck reflects a de-risking re-rating of both companies thanks to a historic validation of the mRNA platform, considered ‘first-in-class,'” explains Julia Kung, portfolio manager and international equity and convertible bond analyst at the firm. The market, she adds, “is also betting that this could be expanded beyond melanoma to other tumors, such as non-small cell lung cancer, bladder, kidney, and other cancer types,” even though all that has been published so far is “an interim summary of results across two endpoints” without the complete dataset on risk, statistical confidence, and safety. Stock prices, she reminds, “always look forward,” and reacted this way because this represents the first Phase III success for an individualized neoantigen therapy and for any mRNA-based cancer treatment.

From BNP Paribas AM, Senior Portfolio Manager Christian Fay agrees that the reaction is justified, though he emphasizes the underlying medical need: the interim data showed “statistically significant and clinically meaningful” improvements compared to treatment with Keytruda alone, in a type of melanoma—resected high-risk cutaneous—where unmet medical need remains high. “These results reinforce our conviction that targeted, personalized medicine can be a particularly effective strategy to treat specific types of cancer, such as melanoma,” notes Fay.

Merck, Keytruda, and the Defensive Play

There is a second layer to the story that relates specifically to Merck. Kung, from Groupama, observes that by combining the vaccine with Keytruda, “this collaboration generates a narrative of potential market dominance not only in melanoma, but also across other cancer types where Keytruda is used.” She goes further: “the rally in Merck’s stock price can be interpreted as a successful defensive narrative: that Merck can protect and extend the Keytruda franchise through combination therapies, while also signaling confidence in Merck’s ability to grow beyond Keytruda.” In other words, part of what the market is celebrating is not just the vaccine itself, but the possibility that Merck has found a way to extend the commercial lifespan of its flagship product.

Revolution or Intermediate Step?

It is in the scale of the promise where perspectives begin to diverge. Kung admits that, over the long term, this “could prove to be ‘revolutionary’ and, so to speak, mark the true beginning of the ‘cancer vaccine’ market.” But she qualifies: “at present, it is better characterized as a platform-level inflection point, analogous to the first kinase inhibitor that validated targeted therapy, rather than an immediate restructuring of pharmaceutical leadership.” The reason is two-fold: adjuvant melanoma is “a relatively narrow indication,” and large-scale personalized manufacturing—producing a distinct treatment for every single patient—”remains operationally complex and expensive.”

Candriam frames the same caution within its specific oncology mandate: personalized mRNA vaccines must be “evaluated with the same discipline as other treatment modalities,” in an increasingly multimodal therapeutic landscape where other innovations—such as antibody-drug conjugates and targeted therapies—have already found their place depending on the tumor type. Torrecilla expands the radar beyond pharmaceutical companies: the life sciences supply chain—tumor sequencing, mRNA manufacturing, lipid nanoparticles—added roughly $50 billion in market value on the day of the announcement, according to Jefferies estimates. But she clarifies the limits of that thesis: “no third-party vendor has been publicly confirmed as a direct manufacturing or sequencing partner,” so it is best not to get ahead of assigning that value to specific companies just yet.

BNP Paribas, without a dedicated thematic healthcare fund, resolves the dilemma differently: capturing the thesis through diversified portfolios that collectively exceed $5 billion, with exposure to healthcare and biotech companies that, according to Fay, act as “engines of innovation” for big pharma. The backdrop, he explains, is structural: nearly $200 billion in big pharma sales will be exposed to patent expirations in the coming years, which will keep both innovation and M&A activity high, because internal R&D at major companies is insufficient to fill that gap.

The next real test for all of this comes in October, with the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) Congress, taking place from October 23 to 27 in Madrid. It is one of the most influential events on the global oncology calendar, where the full trial dataset will be shared.

According to Kung, “the gap between top-line data and granular details is where short-term valuation risk is concentrated.” Torrecilla speaks in similar terms: “The market will focus on the magnitude of the benefit,” both to confirm the commercial opportunity in melanoma and to build confidence in extending the approach to other tumors.

Meanwhile, each fund manager maintains their own list of catalysts. Groupama monitors the FDA submission and review of the Biologics License Application (BLA) for adjuvant melanoma, results in non-small cell lung cancer—which they view as “the most closely watched expansion opportunity given its significantly larger potential market”—pricing and reimbursement signals—since “custom production for every patient represents a major commercial constraint” and payers “will establish the revenue ceiling”—and BioNTech’s trial in pancreatic cancer with autogene cevumeran, which “will indicate the extent to which the concept can be generalized across different tumor types.” Candriam adds Phase 1 data in pancreatic cancer and expected renal cell carcinoma results by year-end to that list. BNP Paribas, for its part, closely tracks other industry milestones such as the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference, broadening its view to other areas of healthcare innovation where it identifies similar opportunities.

Active ETFs, Increasingly Important in Investor Portfolios

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Photo courtesyTom Stephens, Head of ETFs at Schroders.

Active ETFs are leaving behind their status as a niche allocation to become an increasingly relevant element in portfolio construction. The Schroders Global Investor Insights Study 2026 (GIIS) shows that investors are seeking to combine active management with the operational advantages inherent to ETFs, overcoming the perception of these vehicles as a mere lower-cost alternative to mutual funds.

Active ETFs are leaving behind their status as a niche allocation to become an increasingly relevant element in portfolio construction. The Schroders Global Investor Insights Study 2026 (GIIS) shows that investors are seeking to combine active management with the operational advantages inherent to ETFs, overcoming the perception of these vehicles as a mere lower-cost alternative to mutual funds.

Thus, globally, virtually all respondents (98%) recognize that active ETFs have a role to play in portfolios (compared to only 2% who believe otherwise), shifting the debate: it is no longer about whether to use them, but how to get the most out of them.

This shift is especially relevant in the current market environment. In a setting marked by higher volatility and persistent uncertainty, investors need tools that allow them to act quickly, closely monitor their positions, and adjust them with agility, without giving up the added value of active management.

Cost is no longer everything

Regarding the factors investors place the most importance on when evaluating an active ETF, cost is cited without hesitation. Lower costs compared to mutual funds are the main advantage for 70% of respondents. But interest in these products is no longer limited to cheaper access to active management. For more than half of respondents worldwide (51%), intraday liquidity and the ability to trade at market prices, along with higher liquidity in the secondary market (55%) compared to equivalent mutual funds, are other major arguments in favor of this investment vehicle. This is because active ETFs can be bought and sold continuously, often supported by market makers. In contrast, traditional funds are typically valued and settled only once a day, limiting flexibility when rapid intervention is needed.

Greater portfolio transparency is another element particularly valued by investors (51%). Conversely, barely 11% of respondents identified tax efficiency as a benefit.

Chart 1: Top factors when choosing an active ETF

Source: Schroders Global Investor Insights Study 2026. The survey question was: “When considering an active ETF, which of the following advantages are most important to you?”, and respondents were asked to rank their top three reasons.

How do investors use active ETFs?

The survey points out that investors incorporate active ETFs as flexible components within portfolio construction. They allow them to express their investment convictions, access differentiated exposures, and complement their core positions, while maintaining high operational efficiency.

This is structured mainly on two levels. On one hand, investors consider that active ETFs play a relevant role in diversification (68%). On the other hand, they also point to them as a core component in building their investment portfolios (38%).

Tom Stephens, Head of ETFs at Schroders, noted: “The appeal of active ETFs lies in the simplicity of the vehicle and the ease with which they can be integrated, both strategically and tactically. Strategically, they can serve as core equity or fixed income exposure; tactically, they allow positioning in duration, themes, or sectors. And it’s not just a matter of costs: the ability to trade intraday across different platforms facilitates making rapid adjustments, with greater transparency and operational efficiency than many other instruments. This is especially useful when seeking specific goals, such as diversification or risk management.”

Active ETFs for specialized and harder-to-access markets

The survey also shows that demand for active ETFs is not uniform across all investment areas. Investors especially value active management in areas where markets have less coverage, are less efficient, or present greater structural complexity. This is the case for thematic or sector strategies (49%), small- and mid-cap equities (43%), and emerging market equities (40%).

This highlights that investors are looking for active ETFs to combine ease of trading with active management results that make a real difference, especially when index exposure is less precise or when other vehicles are less operational.

Addressing concerns: returns and con fusion with passive ETFs

Despite the strong momentum of active ETFs, the survey shows that some obstacles to adoption remain, which have more to do with the fund manager than with the structure of the vehicle itself. Thus, nearly half of respondents globally (43%) point to uncertainty regarding the performance of this investment solution compared to active mutual funds, a vehicle that remains dominant and has a long tradition in the market, as the main concern. Meanwhile, the second largest concern expressed by investors (40%) is the unclear differentiation between active and passive ETFs.

These elements suggest that the next phase of growth for active ETFs will largely depend on managers’ ability to demonstrate the robustness of their investment process and explain how strategies are implemented and managed within the ETF fund structure, so that investors can understand them and track them over the long term.