Flexstone Partners Announces Acquisition of Glouston Capital Partners

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Flexstone Partners (Flexstone), a global private markets investment manager with $12 billion in assets under management (AUM) and an affiliate of Natixis Investment Managers, has announced that it has reached an agreement to acquire Glouston Capital Partners (Glouston), a Boston-based private equity secondary markets manager with more than $3.4 billion in assets under management.

According to the firms, the combined platform will manage more than $15 billion in assets across primary, secondary and co-investment strategies, serving institutional investors across North America, Europe and Asia. The combined entity brings together two highly complementary businesses: Flexstone’s global primary and co-investment platform and Glouston’s North American secondary market capabilities, which operate largely in different geographies with minimal strategic overlap. Glouston’s experienced team, strong General Partner (GP) relationships and disciplined approach to the North American middle market will significantly strengthen Flexstone’s secondary platform and enhance its ability to meet the evolving needs of institutional investors.

“Flexstone Partners is delighted to welcome the experienced Glouston Capital Partners team as we embark on this new phase of growth. Glouston brings a complementary middle-market investment philosophy and a long track record of disciplined execution. Their expertise in the secondary market is a natural fit with our culture and broadens the range of private capital strategies Flexstone can offer investors through our platform,” said Eric Deram, Managing Partner and Chief Executive Officer of Flexstone Partners.

About the transaction

The investment and management teams at Flexstone will remain unchanged, ensuring continuity for clients while adding deep middle-market secondary expertise. Glouston’s investment strategy and investment team will also remain intact following the closing of the transaction. Glouston’s six partners will continue to manage the secondary business from Boston, applying the same investment process and criteria that have historically defined the firm’s investment approach.

“This partnership represents a natural evolution for Glouston Capital Partners. Flexstone’s global platform, complementary GP relationships and strong distribution network will allow us to expand our reach while maintaining the investment discipline and team-based decision-making that our Limited Partners (LPs) value. We are excited to join forces and continue building a leading secondary platform with the resources and scale needed to compete effectively in today’s market,” said Red Barrett, Senior Managing Partner at Glouston Capital Partners.

As part of the transaction, Glouston’s partners will reinvest a significant portion of their equity ownership in the combined entity and will become Managing Partners of Flexstone, ensuring strong alignment of interests. Flexstone’s partners will also make an additional capital investment alongside the Glouston team.

Expanding the private markets offering

According to Philippe Setbon, Chief Executive Officer of Natixis Investment Managers, investor demand for large-scale, high-quality private markets solutions continues to grow. “Private assets are a core pillar of Natixis Investment Managers’ long-term growth strategy, with Flexstone Partners playing a key role. Glouston Capital Partners’ experienced team, strong institutional relationships and differentiated middle-market strategy are an excellent complement to Flexstone’s private equity business. This integrated platform is uniquely positioned to meet clients’ evolving needs in one of the fastest-growing segments of private markets,” Setbon said.

The combined platform will operate from five offices—New York, Boston, Paris, Geneva and Singapore—and will include 37 investment professionals. Flexstone will continue to manage its primary and co-investment strategies across private equity, private debt, infrastructure and real estate, serving an institutional Limited Partner (LP) client base primarily located in Europe and Asia.

Glouston will lead the combined firm’s secondary investment strategy and U.S. distribution, while Flexstone’s secondary investment team—comprising three professionals in Europe and one in New York—will join forces with Glouston’s investment leadership team. Following the closing of the transaction, Glouston’s strategies will be marketed under the Flexstone Partners brand. The Glouston team will continue operating from Boston as part of Flexstone’s expanded global platform. Existing fund structures, LP agreements and investment mandates will remain unchanged following the rebranding.

Jonathan Steinberg, CEO of WisdomTree: “We Are Entering a Golden Age of Investing, but the Industry Has Been Astonishingly Slow.”

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Jonathan Steinberg, CEO de WisdomTree
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In 1988, Jonathan Steinberg, CEO of WisdomTree, acquired The Penny Stock Journal, a broadsheet newspaper dedicated to the lowest-quality stocks. “Everything they covered was destined to go bankrupt—it was basically a marketing scam. I thought I could do something better,” he recalled during INSITE26, BNY’s annual conference in Denver. He transformed it into Individual Investor, hired analysts, and began producing independent research for retail investors. In 1997, he published his first article about ETFs when the vehicle held just $40 billion in assets and only three products existed. “I was struck by the leap forward that the ETF represented as a structure,” he said.

What surprised him most, however, was the industry’s slow pace of adoption. The first ETFs had launched in 1993, yet by 1997 no additional products had come to market. It took another seven years before the next wave arrived. “Asset managers and distribution platforms were extraordinarily slow to evolve,” he said. That inertia created an opportunity: exactly twenty years ago, WisdomTree launched its first 20 ETFs. Today the firm manages $170 billion in assets but competes with firms overseeing between $1 trillion and $14 trillion. “As CEO of a smaller asset manager, I try to make the right decisions with the least amount of information possible, always trying to stay one step ahead,” he explained.

His assessment of today’s investment landscape was unequivocal: “This is a golden age for investing. Fees have fallen, investment vehicles have become more sophisticated. Today, even the smallest investor can have a better experience than the wealthiest person in the world could have had 20 years ago.”

The question he asked himself seven years ago

Seven years ago, before tokenization had become an industry-wide discussion, Steinberg posed a question internally that would shape WisdomTree’s long-term strategy: “What could do to ETFs what ETFs did to mutual funds?” The answer led him to act long before a consensus had formed.

“I knew that if I started when this conversation became mainstream, it would already be too late for a small boutique manager like WisdomTree,” he said.

The decision required an uncomfortable leap. “I had to do something that made me extremely uncomfortable: make a strategic investment in a startup that had built a tokenization platform and a regulatory framework for its tokens—in other words, a programmable wrapper.”

That platform was eventually acquired by the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), but WisdomTree retained its own version and continued developing it. Today, the firm has $1 billion in tokenized assets and the world’s largest portfolio of tokenized real-world assets. Its latest milestone is a money market fund that operates and settles 24/7 on blockchain.

“It is the first real-world asset that behaves on-chain like a native crypto asset,” Steinberg said.

Two weeks ago, the firm filed with regulators to launch tokenized ETFs under the same framework.

For the financial intermediaries attending the conference, however, his message was one of tactical patience.

“For now, this is irrelevant to you—seriously. Your opportunity lies in the regulated exchange-traded markets, and that opportunity is enormous.”

Tokenization, he argued, belongs to the next generation of clients.

“It’s like the internet. We don’t really know how it works—it simply exists, integrated into everything we do. What will happen is that BNY, other financial institutions, and WisdomTree will bring financial services onto blockchain.”

Farmland instead of BlackRock or Blackstone

While many competitors rushed into private credit, WisdomTree chose a different path: farmland.

“We went into farmland, where there isn’t a BlackRock or a Blackstone,” Steinberg said.

Today, WisdomTree is the third-largest owner of farmland in the United States, managing 180,000 acres through an evergreen “one-and-twenty” structure.

“Our competitors are the Mormon Church, Bill Gates, and family farmers—not BlackRock or Blackstone. It’s a much better business.”

More broadly, Steinberg challenged the prevailing narrative around private markets.

“Most investors give up liquidity and transparency far too easily. And high fees can corrupt investment advice.”

He openly questioned recommendations that investors allocate as much as 30% of their portfolios to private assets.

“That sounds like a lot.”

He was equally skeptical of proposals to incorporate private assets into 401(k) retirement plans.

“I think that’s aggressive. I don’t agree with that approach.”

The ETF as the future wrapper for private assets

WisdomTree’s alternative approach is to bring private assets into the ETF structure itself.

“While my competitors are putting private credit into interval funds, we’re going to put private assets into ETFs.”

Whereas interval funds may hold up to 90% of their assets in illiquid investments, WisdomTree’s proposed structure would cap private exposure at 15%, while eliminating K-1 tax forms, paperwork, lock-up periods, and investment minimums or maximums.

Before the end of the first quarter next year, the firm expects to launch ETFs providing exposure to both farmland and venture capital.

For Steinberg, the rationale is straightforward.

“I don’t want to be the last person buying SpaceX. A tremendous amount of value creation happens before companies ever reach the public markets.”

He also sees clear historical parallels.

“I often ask why the mutual fund industry was so slow to adopt ETFs. Part of it was transparency—portfolio managers didn’t want to disclose their holdings—but fees also played a major role. They were earning high fees, and that made them resistant to adopting what would ultimately have been a better experience for clients.”

Over the past 24 months, roughly 120 mutual fund companies launched their first ETF in 2025 or 2026.

“I’m amazed they literally waited until 2026,” he said.

His guiding principle—and the one he encouraged advisors in the audience to embrace—is simple:

“How do I genuinely help my client achieve the life they ultimately want? That means truly putting yourself in their shoes, rather than placing yourself above them.”

“The Demand for Credit Is Insatiable”: The Forces Driving Investors’ Appetite

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Against a backdrop of tight credit spreads, strong demand for fixed income, and the growing role of artificial intelligence as an investment driver, Christopher Hult, portfolio manager of the CT (Lux) Credit Opportunities Fund at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, discusses the key opportunities and risks he currently sees in credit markets. Hult maintains a defensive positioning focused on high-quality issuers, identifies the automotive sector as one of the market’s most vulnerable areas, and argues that active management is particularly valuable in today’s volatile environment. He also examines how AI-driven capital spending is reshaping corporate financing needs, highlights opportunities in the utilities sector, and shares his views on the evolution of private credit.

How do you view valuations today? Where do you see the most attractive opportunities?

Credit valuations have been elevated for some time, but we believe they are fully justified. Corporate fundamentals remain strong, earnings growth has been impressive, and the macroeconomic backdrop has consistently delivered positive growth. Demand for credit is insatiable.

One consequence of tighter spreads is reduced dispersion in returns. The additional compensation available for more cyclical issuers has narrowed considerably. Spreads may remain tight for an extended period, so we do not want to position ourselves aggressively against the market. However, because we are no longer being adequately compensated for taking cyclical or lower-quality credit risk, we maintain a defensive bias focused on higher-quality issuers.

Is there a sector that appears particularly vulnerable?

The automotive sector. This year the industry is facing a changing regulatory environment as governments roll back some of their commitments related to electric vehicles and climate policy. As a result, what was already a significant capital expenditure cycle is being extended.

Manufacturers must now maintain expensive parallel investment programs: continuing to develop electric vehicle platforms, battery systems, and software while also investing in traditional internal combustion engines and hybrid technologies. This prevents the capital efficiency gains that would come from focusing on a single technology.

At the same time, competition from Chinese manufacturers is putting additional pressure on margins. Given these dynamics, we prefer to remain underweight the sector.

Following the sharp interest rate hikes of 2022, global fixed income has staged a strong recovery with attractive real yields. Is this still a favorable environment for buy-and-hold portfolios? How are your clients positioning their portfolios?

All-in yields remain attractive across fixed income markets, and we continue to see strong interest from a broad range of investors.

That said, we expect market volatility to persist. This is an environment that requires careful investing and agile decision-making, which strengthens the case for active management.

We believe the term premium has not yet fully adjusted, so we favor shorter maturities while looking for opportunities to increase inflation protection.

Fixed income investors have been closely watching the wave of AI-related bond issuance. Do you find these hyperscaler bond offerings attractive? How are you gaining AI exposure through fixed income investments?

As artificial intelligence applications continue to proliferate, the race to build the infrastructure supporting them has triggered one of the largest capital investment cycles in recent history.

We estimate cumulative investment needs between 2025 and 2030 will approach $6 trillion. This enormous buildout is creating unprecedented financing requirements. While the major technology companies generate significant operating cash flow, the scale of the investments required is leading them to explore multiple financing sources.

In the public credit markets, technology companies are issuing increasing amounts of debt, although index concentration and risk premiums are also rising. Given the hyperscalers’ high credit quality, the issuance itself is not a credit concern. The real question is whether the market is large enough to absorb the supply and what level of concession investors will require.

We entered this period underweight technology but have gradually increased our exposure over the past nine months, as sector spreads have repriced relative to the broader market. Even so, we will remain nimble and reduce exposure if we believe investors are no longer being adequately compensated for the continued supply likely to reach the market.

What other themes are you identifying within the investment grade fixed income universe?

The adoption of artificial intelligence technologies will affect many sectors, particularly electric utilities and power grids, given the rapidly growing demand for electricity generation. We see significant opportunities in this area.

Utilities’ capital investments generally translate into growth in their regulated asset base. This allows companies to earn higher regulated returns across their customer base under existing regulatory frameworks. As a result, their cash flow profiles should remain resilient regardless of how the AI industry ultimately develops.

In addition, utilities have the ability to issue hybrid debt, enabling them to raise capital while preserving their existing credit ratings. At the same time, the structural features of hybrid securities—including subordination, call optionality, and coupon deferral—offer higher yields, creating attractive investment opportunities.

We are also closely monitoring the rapid growth of private credit. Although public and private markets generally finance different segments of the economy, we remain alert to any spillover effects stemming from negative developments in private credit.

Ultimately, we do not believe private credit represents a systemic risk to the financial system, given banks’ limited exposure to leveraged private credit funds and the fact that the investor base is primarily institutional with long-term investment horizons.

Nevertheless, to mitigate potential contagion risks, we have made it standard practice to gradually take profits on our exposure to U.S. bank credit while identifying opportunities to rotate toward European financial institutions.

With inflation concerns rising due to the war with Iran and the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, what is your macroeconomic outlook for the second half of 2026? What do you expect from the Fed and the ECB?

The European Central Bank has raised interest rates because inflation has moved above its target. This comes despite the fact that tighter monetary policy could further weaken growth prospects, which have already deteriorated due to the consequences of the conflict in the Persian Gulf.

The ECB hopes that this single rate increase will allow it to preserve its inflation-fighting credibility while buying time for the conflict to end and maritime traffic to return to normal.

Before the conflict, the ECB had become the envy of many developed-market central banks after successfully bringing inflation back to target while gradually lowering rates toward what it considered a neutral policy stance. However, if the conflict drags on, it may be forced into additional rate hikes as inflationary pressures increase.

Being constrained by a single policy mandate raises the risk of repeating the mistakes of 2008 and 2011, when rate hikes driven by higher energy prices ultimately had to be quickly reversed.

The Federal Reserve enjoys greater flexibility, partly because of its dual mandate of employment and inflation. Even so, the market is now pricing in a Fed rate hike before the end of the year.

Giorgia Baistrocchi (Pictet Alternative Advisors): “The Clearest Entry Point in a Generation”

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Photo courtesyGiorgia Baistrocchi, Head of Investor Relations – Real Estate & Infrastructure at Pictet Alternative Advisors.

The traditional reasons for investing in real estate—durable income, inflation protection, diversification and low volatility—have been challenged during this cycle, unlike private equity, private credit and infrastructure, where valuations have become increasingly elevated.

According to Giorgia Baistrocchi, Head of Investor Relations – Real Estate & Infrastructure at Pictet Alternative Advisors, global real estate entered 2026 trading at a substantial discount relative to other risk assets such as listed equities and private credit, both of which have appreciated significantly. If that discount reflected structural deterioration, it would represent a value trap. Instead, she argues that it is largely technical in nature and creates “the clearest entry point in a generation.”

Transaction activity supports the thesis

According to her analysis, global real estate transaction volumes reached $873 billion in 2025, an increase of 11.7% versus 2024 and the second consecutive annual increase since the 2023 trough. Activity was concentrated in residential, prime office and industrial assets (Source: McKinsey / RCA-MSCI), suggesting that demand remains healthy.

“In fact, real estate is the only major private asset class whose weakness is being driven more by technical dislocations than by deteriorating fundamentals. That said, in an environment of higher interest rates and lower liquidity, discipline is essential because the truly investable universe has narrowed. The most attractive opportunities are no longer based on a broad macroeconomic recovery, and institutional investors are rebuilding exposure selectively rather than through passive allocations,” Baistrocchi says.

Four of the five forces that compressed valuations are fading

Baistrocchi argues that four of the five forces that have weighed on real estate valuations and liquidity over recent years are now coming to an end. For more than a decade, capitalization rates offered a substantial premium over the risk-free rate. With the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield now around 4.6%, that spread has largely disappeared, bringing the market back toward historical norms.

“In 2022, while listed portfolios declined sharply, private real estate valuations remained relatively stable. As equities and credit subsequently recovered, asset allocators facing redemption requests rebalanced portfolios by selling real estate—not because they were overweight, but because it was the most readily available illiquid asset to generate liquidity. Those were forced sales that should reverse as portfolio allocations normalize. In addition, the quarterly appraisal process typically used in private real estate smoothed volatility, causing valuations to continue adjusting downward while listed and credit markets had already recovered,” she explains.

Private credit displaced real estate

She also notes that real estate lost part of its appeal as an income-generating asset to private credit, an asset class that has now grown to approximately $2.2 trillion in senior floating-rate debt with lower sensitivity to changes in interest rates. For some managers, private credit now represents a larger share of assets under management than private equity.

However, she points out that private credit has recently faced redemption restrictions, valuation concerns and litigation involving retail-oriented vehicles, where secondary market discounts have reached as much as 35% relative to reported net asset values.

“As a result, investors have begun to reassess the value of the liquidity premium and the perceived liquidity advantage of private credit. Moreover, real estate and private credit were both marketed as independent sources of income, yet they share many of the same characteristics: they are illiquid assets, they can experience mismatches between liquidity and redemptions, and price discovery is often delayed,” she says.

In her view, the key difference is that much of the valuation adjustment has already taken place in real estate, whereas private credit is only beginning that process. Although she does not see systemic risk—default rates in direct lending remain below historical averages and current stress is largely concentrated in semi-liquid retail vehicles—she believes private credit now represents less competition for real estate allocations.

Infrastructure: the new competitor

Turning to infrastructure, Baistrocchi highlights that return dispersion among managers is significantly lower than in real estate. This reflects the sector’s long-duration regulated contracts, inflation-linked revenues and sovereign or quasi-sovereign counterparties.

“Infrastructure offers predictable income streams protected against inflation—the very value proposition that real estate has marketed for the past three decades,” she argues.

Data centers, energy transition assets, telecommunications towers, fiber networks, senior housing and student accommodation have become some of the most sought-after assets among infrastructure managers. Many institutional investors have even created dedicated strategic infrastructure allocations funded by reducing their real estate exposure.

Even so, she warns that infrastructure also shares some of the vulnerabilities currently emerging in private credit: illiquid assets, semi-liquid vehicles and potential gaps between official valuations and secondary market pricing.

“The question is whether the stability of infrastructure cash flows will be sufficient to protect against future liquidity mismatches and confidence shocks. For now, infrastructure represents a significant competitive force for real estate,” she says.

Selectivity has become essential

Finally, Baistrocchi argues that the source of real estate returns has fundamentally changed. In a higher-rate environment, returns can no longer rely on cap-rate compression, multiple expansion or inexpensive leverage.

“Today, the market values buildings more like operating businesses than bond-like income streams. Dispersion between assets continues to widen, making security selection more important than ever,” she says.

Against this backdrop, value-add strategies—income-producing assets requiring operational improvements, repositioning or redevelopment—accounted for 55% of global real estate fundraising during the first quarter of 2026, while opportunistic strategies declined.

In logistics, secular demand continues to be supported by resilient supply chains and reshoring trends, although speculative development has slowed considerably. Office remains far from a full recovery, but improving lending activity and opportunistic buyers targeting supply-constrained prime offices suggest selective opportunities are emerging.

Global investment volumes increased 15% year over year during the first quarter of 2026, led by North America (+19%), followed by Asia-Pacific (+15%) and Europe, the Middle East and Africa (+14%). By sector, investment remained concentrated in multifamily residential, industrial assets and prime offices.

Industrial accounted for 47% of global fundraising, while data centers stabilized at around 25%. North America attracted 65% of investment flows into the data center segment, up from 30% previously, reflecting growing investor demand for regional rather than global strategies.

Regarding capital structures, Baistrocchi sees the most compelling opportunities in recapitalizations, preferred equity and structured equity investments, as well as single-asset continuation vehicles.

“Preferred equity is particularly attractive for acquiring high-quality assets financed under a very different interest-rate environment. Recapitalization opportunities should continue expanding as the refinancing wall approaches. By contrast, passive core strategies—which prioritize stable, lower-risk assets—are in a weaker position because higher risk-free rates make it increasingly difficult for assets with limited upside potential to generate sufficient excess returns,” she concludes.

Guinness Global Investors Expands Its Real Assets Platform With a New Acquisition

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Guinness Global Investors (Guinness) has announced the acquisition of Foresight Capital Management (FCM), the public markets division of Foresight Group. The transaction includes seven investment strategies focused on listed real assets and sustainable and impact investing funds.

According to the firm, FCM’s listed real assets team will be integrated into Guinness’ Real Assets team, led by Mark Brennan, who helped develop and manage these strategies at FCM before joining Guinness. Meanwhile, Nick Scullion, Partner and Head of FCM, will remain at Foresight.

“The diversification benefits offered by listed real assets are more relevant than ever in today’s markets. Reuniting Mark Brennan with the funds he launched at FCM represents an excellent opportunity to strengthen our real assets investment platform,” said Edward Guinness, CEO of Guinness Global Investors.

For his part, Mark Brennan, Portfolio Manager at Guinness, commented: “The addition of these strategies and the listed real assets team to Guinness accelerates our growth plans by providing greater scale and expanding our investment team.”

Eric Bright and Mayank Markanday, Portfolio Managers at FCM, added: “Guinness will provide our listed real assets teams with an outstanding platform to support future growth. Collaborating with Guinness and with Mark is a natural evolution that will allow us to expand our capabilities.”

WHEB Strategies

The transaction also includes WHEB’s sustainable and impact investing team, now part of FCM, which will work alongside the Guinness team responsible for the Guinness Sustainable Energy strategy, launched in 2006, and the Guinness Global Environment strategy, launched in 2025.

WHEB’s impact investing approach—widely regarded as a market benchmark—will be maintained. Its framework combines the impact generated by portfolio companies with the contribution made by investors, while incorporating measurement criteria, stewardship, corporate governance, and transparency.

Edward Guinness added: “FCM’s WHEB team is recognized as a thought leader in responsible investing and will strengthen the expertise we have built at Guinness in this area. FCM’s WHEB funds offer attractive long-term prospects, and their portfolio companies are currently trading at historically low relative valuations.”

Ted Franks, Portfolio Manager of the impact strategies, said: “We have always admired Guinness’ disciplined investment and research process, as well as its expertise in areas closely aligned with our strategies. The integration will create a larger investment team, and I am very excited about this new chapter.”

The Strait of Hormuz, Inflation, and Interest Rates: What Will Warsh’s Message Be?

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Geopolitics and the agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz—which is expected to provide relief to markets—set the stage for a week in which inflation and monetary policy return to the forefront. It is a busy week for central banks, with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, while the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England (BoE) are both expected to leave rates unchanged.

What these three institutions have in common—along with the European Central Bank (ECB), which met last week and raised rates by 25 basis points—is that persistent inflationary pressures are testing their resolve. Undoubtedly, the announced peace agreement between Iran and the United States adds a new dimension to the current environment and to inflation expectations.

“After weeks of negotiations and swings between optimism and pessimism, it appears that a key diplomatic milestone has been reached to bring the war with Iran to an end. There will be setbacks along the way, but the path out of the crisis now seems clear. The energy crisis has been far less threatening than feared, as markets have once again demonstrated their resilience. While several long-term uncertainties remain, energy markets appear to be heading back toward a situation similar to the previous one, where oversupply dominates. We maintain our cautious outlook and expect further downward pressure on oil prices,” says Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research at Julius Baer.

According to investment managers, global central banks—including the Fed—are likely to maintain a hawkish stance to combat persistent energy-related inflationary pressures. Raphael Olszyna-Marzys, International Economist at J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable AM, argues that this stance is reinforced by oil prices remaining at around $85 per barrel, adding approximately one percentage point to inflation this year. “In addition, the prolonged closure of the Strait has already triggered visible second-round inflation effects. At the same time, extremely tight credit spreads leave very little room for further compression,” he notes.

Focus on the Fed: Growth and Inflation

However, the greatest attention is focused on the Federal Reserve, and not only because it marks Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair. “While Donald Trump continues to call for rate cuts and some observers still expect one, the arguments in favor of such a monetary policy move do not withstand even the most basic analysis,” says Enguerrand Artaz, strategist at La Financière de l’Échiquier (LFDE).

From a growth perspective, the recent trend has been decidedly positive: economic growth remains solid, investment continues to expand thanks to AI, and the labor market is once again strengthening, with more sectors participating in the recovery. “This last point is especially important because, beyond being positive for consumer spending, it directly affects one of the Federal Reserve’s two mandates,” Artaz adds.

As for inflation, the latest figures clearly show an increase driven primarily—as expected—by higher energy prices, but also by a faster rise in services inflation, which is far more troubling for the Fed. Services inflation was the central concern during the Fed’s tightening cycle and, unlike energy prices, is not directly linked to the consequences of the conflict with Iran.

In other words, according to Artaz, “the Fed is simultaneously facing a resurgence in inflation—even excluding energy—and an economic cycle that continues to accelerate. It is difficult to envision a rate cut in such an environment, and markets are already pricing in a rate hike in 2026. Nevertheless, it is highly likely that Kevin Warsh, the new Fed Chair, will at least try to preserve the status quo for as long as possible amid pressure from the White House.”

Warsh’s First Meeting

Regarding what to expect from Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair, most investment managers expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to leave the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, in line with market consensus and investor expectations. They also agree that he may remove the accommodative bias that has been in place since the current easing cycle began in September 2024. For some, this shift in tone would reflect a more balanced approach and, above all, growing concern over persistent inflation.

“The new Chair, Kevin Warsh, faces his first meeting in an especially complex environment. He inherits the most divided committee in more than three decades: three voting members had already opposed the accommodative bias in April, while outgoing Governor Stephen Miran once again voted in favor of a rate cut. The minutes make it clear that the committee’s internal balance has shifted toward a more hawkish stance, given the increasing uncertainty surrounding the duration and economic impact of the conflict in the Middle East. Recent data have done little to dispel those concerns,” says Michael Krautzberger, CIO of Global Public Markets at Allianz Global Investors.

According to Alessia Berardi, Head of Global Macroeconomics at the Amundi Investment Institute, this week’s meeting is not really about interest rates. “There is not much focus on rates themselves, but rather on Kevin Warsh’s first press conference and how he will balance the demands of President Trump with those of the bond market. Inflation is rising and the economy remains resilient—particularly the labor market, which is not cooling. The emerging agreement with Iran may make that balancing act easier for now. Questions about the balance sheet are expected during the press conference, although there are unlikely to be any clear answers.”

Finally, Benoit Anne, Senior Managing Director and Head of the Investment Insight Group at MFS Investment Management, highlights two key questions ahead of this week’s meeting: Will the median projection indicate no change in interest rates throughout 2026, which seems plausible? And will it continue to point toward some degree of monetary easing in 2027?

In his view, the broader issue is how the Fed’s communication strategy will evolve going forward. “This matters because Fed signals continue to move markets. The era of forward guidance may be coming to an end. Looking back, this tool appears to have gradually lost its effectiveness. It worked when interest rates were low and stable, and when the macroeconomic environment seemed relatively predictable. Going forward, we believe the Fed faces a challenging environment: persistent inflation, political pressure, and the challenge for a new Chair of building consensus around monetary policy,” Anne concludes.

How Have Pension Funds Changed Their Approach to Asset Allocation?

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Global pension assets have reached record highs, surpassing $68.3 trillion, but how has their asset allocation evolved? According to the Global Pension Assets Study published by the Thinking Ahead Institute (TAI) and sponsored by WTW, across the seven largest pension markets, over the past 20 years, the allocation to equities has declined by 9%, representing 48% of total assets, while allocations to bonds and other asset classes have increased by 3% and 6%, respectively, reaching 31% and 19% of total assets.

Looking specifically at last year, when pension assets exceeded $68.3 trillion, global markets delivered broad-based gains, with most major asset classes generating positive returns. “Equities performed particularly well, while fixed income also posted gains in light of global interest-rate cuts and narrowing credit spreads,” noted Jessica Gao, Director of the Thinking Ahead Institute.

Looking ahead to 2026, Gao highlights that fiscal support and AI-related investment should continue to be important drivers of growth. “Inflation trends and central bank actions will be key, particularly in the U.S., where strong capital spending and supportive fiscal policy may continue to drive growth and keep yields relatively elevated,” she added.

Change in Approach

The main conclusion of the report is that the current aggregate asset allocation more closely resembles that of 15 years ago. In addition, it argues that the Total Portfolio Approach (TPA) has reached a defining moment, as portfolios have moved beyond traditional asset-class silos. “What began as a cutting-edge concept among a small group of asset owners has entered the mainstream, supported by high-profile adopters. This shift reflects a growing recognition that managing today’s portfolios requires whole-portfolio decision-making rather than asset-class optimization, as well as organizational and portfolio resilience rather than simply managing volatility and tracking-error risks,” the report explains in its conclusions.

According to WTW, the TPA framework changes the fundamental question: “It is no longer about how an asset performs in isolation, but rather how each exposure contributes to the fund’s overall objectives, making this approach both a test of organizational maturity and an investment framework.”

In this regard, the report argues that a total portfolio perspective is better suited to the interconnected risks investors now face, including inflation, liquidity, concentration, systemic, and climate risks, all of which cut across asset classes. “TPA supports more coherent portfolio construction by clarifying the role of each exposure, the next unit of risk the fund is willing to assume, and the trade-offs among private market opportunities, liquidity, and long-term resilience. Its focus on integrated decision-making and enhanced data helps investors manage risk over time—not just short-term volatility—and promotes adaptability through scenario analysis and a broader view of risk than traditional models allow,” the report states in its conclusions.

It further argues that TPA is particularly important now because the investment environment is more uncertain, complex, and interdependent than the governance models for which many funds were originally designed. “Rapid technological change and rising political and systemic risks require frameworks that can operate with less certainty and less model stability. TPA addresses this by enabling faster and more coordinated decision-making, supported by better data, technology, and an organization-wide perspective,” the report concludes.

Harvey Schwartz of Carlyle: “Demand for Private Capital Will Be Extraordinary”

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Harvey Schwartz, de Carlyle
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Harvey Schwartz, CEO of The Carlyle Group, was unequivocal during Insite 2026, an event organized by BNY: the world is undergoing a structural reconfiguration of the global economy that will create unique investment opportunities, and the wealth segment will be one of its main drivers.

For Schwartz, the current moment leaves no room for half measures. “I believe this is the most important inflection point in capital formation that I have seen in my lifetime,” he stated. The argument is straightforward: the major trends that shaped finance for decades—disinflation, declining interest rates, manageable deficits, and global economic integration—have either reversed or been put on hold. The only force that continues unabated is technology.

The geopolitical backdrop is central to his analysis. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, he argued, was “one of the most significant events of this century, perhaps of the last 50 years,” and, together with the conflict in the Middle East, it has completely reshaped government priorities. “Everywhere I go in the world—Japan, South Korea, Beijing, Central Europe—the narrative is always the same: national security, economic growth, and political stability,” he said.

But there has been a key redefinition of that concept. “Historically, national security was synonymous with defense. Now it is a much broader concept: it includes energy security and data security.” And that expansion, according to Schwartz, is precisely where private capital flows will be concentrated over the coming years.

Defense, Energy, and Other Sectors Where Carlyle Sees Opportunities

The Carlyle CEO was specific about the sectors expected to attract investment. Aerospace and defense, industrials, and healthcare top the list, all of them increasingly converging with technological advancement. “Look at all the defense investment announcements around the world: Canada, Europe, Japan. The demand is enormous,” he noted.

However, it was on energy that Schwartz made one of his strongest arguments, and where Carlyle holds a distinctive position. “We were the only major private equity firm that maintained a full energy business when energy was unpopular.” That decision, which at the time may have appeared contrary to consensus, now looks strategic: “The conversation around the world has shifted from ‘energy transition’ to ‘energy diversification,’ which is really code for: I need energy security.” Carlyle’s business in this sector ranges from traditional energy to renewables, covering the entire spectrum.

The underlying thesis is that governments cannot finance this transformation on their own. “Deficits are too large. So where will the capital come from? From banks, public markets, and private capital.” And within that trio, private markets—and the financial advisors who channel them—will play a leading role.

Wealth Management as a Driver of Private Capital

Schwartz was direct about the importance the wealth segment will have in this new cycle. “There are 43 million households in the United States that spend $15 trillion a year. That’s the size of China. All of that wealth needs to be managed by this audience,” he told the advisors in attendance.

The executive described how, upon joining Carlyle, he personally set out to listen to financial advisors before making decisions. “I went and spoke with them directly. I asked them what was important to them, about portfolio construction, what their clients needed. And I was surprised by how sophisticated they are. It bothers me when I read articles saying advisors are confused. They are not confused. They manage enormous pools of wealth, as sophisticated as my institutional client base.”

Regarding the product strategy for this segment, Schwartz emphasized diversification as the guiding principle. “You may not own the winning asset that rises 130% or 40%, but you will mitigate much of the downside risk. And as the industry evolves, you have to build the right vehicles for this audience.” The implicit warning was clear: the world is changing too quickly to bet everything on a single sector. “When I arrived at Carlyle, everyone told me the big gap was software. Three years later, nobody likes software.”

Despite the complexity of the environment, Schwartz concluded on an optimistic note. “I believe all of this can be very, very positive for markets. The marginal returns on that capital will be quite attractive over the next decade.” Geopolitical risk is difficult to quantify, he acknowledged, but it also creates inefficiencies that generate opportunities for those with the scale and sector expertise needed to navigate this environment.

Maximilian Kunkel (UBS GWM): “Family Offices Are Actively Diversifying Their Currency Risk”

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Photo courtesyMaximilian Kunkel, Chief Investment Officer, Global Family and Institutional Wealth at UBS GWM.

Sixty percent of family offices plan to modify their strategic asset allocation over the next 12 months. This is the highest percentage ever recorded in the UBS Global Family Office Report 2026 and, according to Maximilian Kunkel, Chief Investment Officer, Global Family and Institutional Wealth at UBS GWM, it reflects “both a defensive reaction to a more complex macroeconomic environment, increased geopolitical uncertainty, and concentration risk, as well as a proactive repositioning to capitalize on new megatrends, particularly artificial intelligence, as well as areas such as infrastructure and emerging markets.”

In addition, a paradigm shift is emerging in currencies: 65% of family offices expect confidence in the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency to weaken in the short term due to concerns about U.S. debt, and 47% acknowledge being overly exposed to the greenback. We spoke with Kunkel about these and other trends highlighted in the report.

Continuing with the currency theme, how is UBS advising clients to structure multi-currency frameworks without compromising the returns of the underlying assets, which are traditionally denominated in U.S. dollars?

With 65% expecting a weaker dollar and nearly half considering themselves overexposed to the currency, family offices are actively diversifying their currency risk. This involves designing multi-currency frameworks that balance diversification with return objectives. In practice, this may mean maintaining strategic allocations to currencies such as the euro and the Swiss franc, while employing hedging strategies to manage foreign exchange risk without undermining the performance of dollar-denominated assets. The goal is to enhance portfolio resilience and flexibility—not to abandon the dollar, but to ensure portfolios are prepared for a range of scenarios.

Interest in AI remains strong, but we are seeing a shift in focus from highly valued software companies toward the physical ecosystem supporting AI. For a fund selector, what is the most efficient way to capture this “second derivative” of AI? Is it time to rotate from purely technology-themed funds into global infrastructure funds?

Interest in artificial intelligence (AI) remains strong, but investors increasingly recognize that the opportunity extends beyond the technology itself and encompasses the entire value chain that supports it, including the energy and resources required for its growth. For investors, this means it is important to take an active management approach not only within the AI universe itself—software, hardware, and applications—but also across the sectors that enable its development, such as commodities, utilities, and industrials, ensuring portfolios are positioned to benefit from innovation throughout the ecosystem.

Historically, gold has represented a modest allocation within family office portfolios (around 2%). However, the 2026 report shows that the average planned allocation has risen to 3%. Are wealthy families increasingly using gold as a structural hedge against the erosion of purchasing power in traditional fiat currencies?

Beyond its role as a safe-haven asset against geopolitical risks, family offices are increasingly using gold as a structural hedge against the loss of purchasing power in fiat currencies. Concerns about rising sovereign debt levels, currency volatility, and geopolitical risks have contributed to this trend. Family offices typically view gold as a long-term store of value and a diversification tool within multi-asset portfolios.

The report highlights a striking geographic divergence: while family offices in Europe and Asia are actively seeking to reduce concentration risk in the United States by diversifying into Asia-Pacific and Western Europe, U.S. family offices have increased their domestic bias from 86% to 88%. How do you explain to a North American family office that concentrating on its domestic market may represent a dangerous concentration risk in the current geopolitical environment?

Global diversification can help mitigate risks arising from domestic disruptions, regulatory changes, or sector-specific slowdowns. It also provides access to opportunities unique to different regions. We believe the most resilient portfolios are those that successfully balance local expertise with global opportunities.

Finally, the report once again highlights a persistent challenge: governance. With the multi-trillion-dollar intergenerational wealth transfer already underway, what are the real risks for financial advisors of losing relationships with these structures if families fail to professionalize their governance today?

Despite significant progress in the institutionalization of investment processes, governance remains an area requiring greater attention. With only one-third of family offices having a defined succession plan and just 27% actively preparing the next generation, there is a risk of losing continuity, family cohesion, and long-term stability as wealth passes from one generation to the next. In the context of the Great Wealth Transfer, professionalizing governance through proactive succession planning and the involvement of younger generations is essential to preserving family wealth, ensuring smooth transitions, and maintaining the effectiveness of family office structures over time.

ECB Raises Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points Due to the Inflationary Impact of the War in the Middle East

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The Governing Council remains committed to setting monetary policy in a way that ensures inflation stabilizes at its 2% medium-term target. In line with this commitment, the Governing Council has decided to raise the ECB’s three key interest rates by 25 basis points. The war in the Middle East is generating inflationary pressures, and the decision to increase interest rates is appropriate across the various scenarios assessing the possible evolution of the shock and its impact on the euro area’s medium-term outlook.

The baseline scenario in the latest Eurosystem staff projections foresees headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026, 2.3% in 2027, and 2.0% in 2028. Inflation excluding energy and food is projected to average 2.5% in both 2026 and 2027, and 2.2% in 2028 under this scenario. Compared with the March projections, staff have revised upward the baseline inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027 due to a higher projected path for energy prices, which is expected to pass through to food, goods, and services inflation to some extent.

The baseline scenario projects economic growth to average 0.8% in 2026, 1.2% in 2027, and 1.5% in 2028, implying downward revisions for 2026 and 2027 due to a more pronounced impact of the war on commodity markets, real incomes, and confidence.

The outlook remains uncertain, with upside risks to inflation and downside risks to economic growth. The full implications of the war for medium-term inflation and growth will depend on the intensity and duration of the energy price shock, as well as the magnitude of its indirect and second-round effects. This uncertainty is also reflected in the wide range of inflation and growth outcomes across the updated illustrative scenarios prepared by Eurosystem staff. These scenarios will be published alongside the staff projections on the ECB’s website.

With today’s decision, the Governing Council remains well positioned to navigate the uncertainty caused by the war. It will continue to closely monitor developments and follow a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach in determining the appropriate monetary policy stance. In particular, the Governing Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook and the risks surrounding it, taking into account incoming economic and financial data, underlying inflation dynamics, and the strength of monetary policy transmission. The Governing Council is not pre-committing to any particular rate path.

ECB Key Interest Rates

The Governing Council has decided to raise the ECB’s three key interest rates by 25 basis points. Accordingly, the interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations, and the marginal