Janus Henderson to Develop New AI-Based Analytics and Client Engagement Tools

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Photo courtesyAli Dibadj, CEO of Janus Henderson.

Janus Henderson has announced that it is developing a suite of AI-native tools to transform the way it invests and serves its clients. According to the firm, Percepta, a transformation company backed by General Catalyst, will be responsible for building the infrastructure, while Anthropic’s Claude will serve as the AI model layer.

The firm believes that cutting-edge AI delivers the greatest impact when it enhances human expertise, enabling an even more client-centric approach to both investing and client service. Building on Claude, Janus Henderson is putting this approach into practice in two ways that could shape the future use of artificial intelligence within the asset management industry.

Specifically, it is developing new AI-native tools for its investment and client service teams. On the one hand, the asset manager is working on Prism, a global client intelligence and engagement platform designed for Janus Henderson’s distribution teams. Powered by Claude, it helps sales teams prioritize the right outreach actions, leverage internal and third-party data to better understand what clients have and what they need, and prepare personalized communications. In this way, it provides a single, consistent tool for sales and marketing teams across all regions.

On the other hand, the firm is developing Libros, an AI-native research management tool for Janus Henderson’s investment teams. Also powered by Claude, it synthesizes the firm’s internal research alongside external research and public market data, helping analysts and portfolio managers identify relevant signals more quickly and devote more time to analysis and investment decision-making.

In addition, Janus Henderson is rolling out Claude across the organization. Its engineering teams will use Claude Code, while Cowork will be available to employees in investment, distribution, and corporate functions, further integrating AI into day-to-day work.

Meanwhile, Prism and Libros are being developed in collaboration with the technology teams at Janus Henderson and Percepta. Percepta helps large enterprises transform through AI by embedding specialized engineers, researchers, and product managers directly into organizations and leveraging the Percepta Mosaic platform to rapidly develop agent-based workflows and customized decision-support tools.

At Janus Henderson, Percepta’s teams work alongside the firm’s investment, distribution, and technology professionals to develop Prism and Libros on Claude, and to build the data and knowledge foundation that connects Claude to Janus Henderson’s proprietary research, client, and market data.

According to the asset manager, this integrated model addresses a challenge that has slowed AI adoption in asset management: generic tools rarely fit the way an active manager analyzes markets, manages portfolios, and serves clients. The value comes from connecting cutting-edge AI to proprietary data and rebuilding core workflows around it, which generally requires engineering embedded within the business rather than externally purchased software.

“We believe the AI transformation will fundamentally change the way asset managers serve their clients as it becomes integrated into the core of the business. This collaboration with Anthropic and Percepta, together with Janus Henderson’s partnership with Trian and General Catalyst, reinforces our leadership in AI and tokenization innovation and supports our ambition to be the most technologically sophisticated asset manager in the world. We believe it will improve the way we serve our clients—the 75 million people* around the world who trust us to help build a brighter future together,” said Ali Dibadj, CEO of Janus Henderson.

For his part, Peter Nolan, Head of Asset and Wealth Management at Anthropic, stated: “Asset management is a knowledge-intensive industry where reliable AI can help teams work faster and deliver better client service. Janus Henderson is putting Claude directly into the hands of the teams responsible for managing investments and client relationships—from purpose-built tools such as Prism and Libros to Claude Code and Cowork across the company.”

“Transforming industries with AI requires fundamentally rethinking how work gets done within organizations and designing engineering systems purpose-built for a new way of operating. Our work with Janus Henderson focuses on strengthening research and market intelligence while enhancing client engagement. We are proud to collaborate with Janus Henderson and Anthropic in transforming the asset management industry,” commented Hirsh Jain, CEO of Percepta.

Phil Orlando of Federated Hermes: “There Is Overvaluation, Not a Bubble; Technology Stocks Could Fall 20%”

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Phil Orlando, estratega jefe de mercados globales de Federated Hermes
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Phil Orlando, Chief Market Strategist at Federated Hermes, opened his presentation at INSITE 2026 with a historical perspective: from Eugene Black in 1933 to Jerome Powell, there have been eleven leadership transitions at the U.S. Federal Reserve, and the market tested every new chair without exception. “The market hits a rough patch, tests the new leader, and then recovers. By the end of the year, the new chair gains credibility,” he said.

The current transition, however, has several unique features that distinguish it from previous ones. The confirmation of the new chair was the closest in recent history, with a vote of 54 in favor and 45 against. In addition, Jerome Powell chose to remain a member of the Board of Governors after his term as chair expired on May 15, something that had happened only once before, with Marriner Eccles in 1948. This creates an unprecedented dynamic, with the outgoing and incoming chairs sitting at the same table. Finally, the meeting at the end of April recorded four dissenting votes, the highest number since 1982. The dissenters’ argument: the Fed should neutralize its bias in light of its dual mandate—inflation and employment—given that the labor market remains strong while inflation continues to exert upward pressure.

Against this backdrop, Orlando highlighted the critical calendar for the coming months: meetings on June 17, July 29, and September 16, with the new Federal Reserve chair’s inaugural speech at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on August 28 serving as a pivotal moment. “That will be the moment when he presents his vision. We do not know what he will say or do, but the market will be paying very close attention,” he warned. His conclusion: there is a real possibility of turbulence during the summer.

Despite monetary policy uncertainties, Orlando remained constructive on the state of the economy. Combined retail sales growth in March and April reached 4.5% year over year, a result he described as solid. He acknowledged the argument of a bifurcated economy but downplayed it with a straightforward arithmetic exercise: the wealthiest 10% of the population accounts for approximately 50% of consumer spending, while private consumption represents 70% of GDP. Therefore, that top decile accounts for roughly one-third of GDP. “Stock prices are at all-time highs and home values have risen 50% from COVID lows. Sixty percent of Americans own stocks and property. They are doing well, and they are spending,” he explained.

Among lower-income households, recently approved tax reforms generated savings of approximately 18% year over year, enough to offset the impact of higher energy prices for roughly six months.

On the corporate side, Orlando highlighted the full expensing of corporate capital expenditures as the most stimulative element of the recently approved tax legislation. The result: productivity grew 3% over the last four quarters, well above the historical average of nearly 2% over the past five decades. Taking all these factors into account, he projected U.S. GDP growth of around 3% in 2027, significantly above the market consensus of approximately 2%.

On monetary policy, Orlando was direct. The two-year Treasury yield rose from 3.40%—the level at which pressure was mounting on the Fed to cut rates—to 4.10% currently, reflecting the energy supply shock and inflation. Looking at the data objectively, the more likely move would be a rate hike rather than a cut. However, he noted that the Fed typically does not react to temporary supply shocks. “The most likely outcome is that the Fed does nothing and waits for the energy situation and inflation to normalize,” he said.

Overvaluation, Not a Bubble: The Diagnosis and Strategy

Orlando firmly rejected comparisons with the technology bubble of the late 1990s. “These are real companies, with real products, real revenues, real earnings, and real valuations,” he said. Nevertheless, he acknowledged that valuations are ahead of fundamentals: his estimate for the S&P 500 is 20 times expected corporate earnings over the next 12 months, while the current multiple is around 22.5 times, implying that the market is trading roughly 12% to 13% above where it should be.

“Could there be a 10% correction during the summer and early fall? Absolutely. But we are nowhere near the 85% collapse we saw in the Nasdaq between 2000 and 2003,” he added.

In terms of asset allocation, Federated Hermes maintains a six-percentage-point overweight in equities relative to its benchmark—66% in stocks and 34% in bonds and cash—but Orlando was specific about where that exposure should be concentrated. Not in mega-cap technology stocks, which trade at 30 to 40 times earnings, but in sectors trading closer to 14 or 15 times earnings: domestic large caps, small caps, and emerging markets. These sectors also offer dividend yields of between 3% and 5%.

“If technology falls 20% or 30%, those sectors might decline only 5%, partially offset by dividends. The key is to stay invested but remain focused on valuation,” he summarized. In fixed income, he noted that the bond market has reacted more clearly than equities to the rebound in inflation: the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose from around 4.33% to nearly 4.70%.

The Election Cycle: The Dip That Is Always an Opportunity

To conclude, Orlando placed the current environment in historical perspective. Over the last 80 years of S&P 500 history, the two middle quarters of the U.S. midterm election year have historically been the weakest, partly because the party in power typically loses seats. This year also combines a Fed leadership transition with a midterm election cycle, a combination that has occurred only six times in the last 93 years and has always been accompanied by a market pullback of roughly 10% during the middle of the year.

But that weakness has also consistently represented a buying opportunity: from the market bottom in those years, equities went on to post sustained gains over the following two and a half years. “If I am right and there is a dip over the next quarter or two, that will be the time to buy with conviction. I believe we will be back at all-time highs before year-end,” he concluded.

Three Perspectives on What SpaceX’s IPO Would Mean

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Investors remain focused on SpaceX’s IPO, as it is an unprecedented transaction in terms of both scale and structure. According to experts from international asset managers, its implications for markets, indices, and portfolios extend far beyond the transaction itself.

“A number of large-cap private companies are heading toward the public markets, and their arrival could reshape the equity landscape. SpaceX, Elon Musk’s aerospace, satellite communications, and artificial intelligence (AI) company, is the first. Its target valuation for the IPO is around $1.8 trillion, which could allow it to raise as much as $75 billion in the process,” note Shannon L. Saccocia, Chief Investment Officer of Wealth Management at Neuberger Berman, and Joe Amato, President and Chief Investment Officer of Equities at Neuberger Berman.

This will be a historic transaction, not only because of the company’s size and brand strength, but also because of the enthusiasm it is likely to generate among both institutional and retail investors.

“However, enthusiasm is not an investment discipline. The issue is not simply determining whether SpaceX is a great company, but assessing what expectations are already reflected in its price,” says Aymeric Gastaldi, International Equity Portfolio Manager at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management.

According to Gastaldi, there is also a structural factor investors should consider: index inclusion.

“If a company like SpaceX were quickly added to the major Nasdaq indices following its IPO, passive funds and ETFs would become forced buyers. This could absorb a significant portion of the available free float and create additional upward pressure on the stock regardless of its valuation,” he explains.

Is There Enough Investor Demand?

Regarding the SpaceX IPO, Adam Berger, Multi-Asset Strategist, and Matthew Strzepka, Head of Equity Capital Markets at Wellington Management, believe the first lesson will be whether sufficient investor demand exists. In their view, the answer is yes.

“SpaceX enjoys enormous brand recognition and is likely to attract interest from a broad range of investors. We also expect retail investor participation to be significant, given the extensive media attention surrounding the offering and reports suggesting that the company may allocate a substantial portion of the shares to this group,” they note.

The Wellington Management experts also point out that inclusion in major indices would mean that many passive investment funds could be compelled to purchase shares within a short period, while active managers would need to consider SpaceX within their benchmark investment universe.

They also note that hedge funds and crossover funds, which can invest in both public and private companies, could further boost demand.

“Pricing and valuation will ultimately play a decisive role, although we expect the IPO to be priced at a level that is attractive to both retail and institutional investors,” they add.

For Clémence Rusek, Chief Investment Strategist at Vontobel, concerns about the market’s ability to absorb such offerings appear justified at first glance.

“The concentration of IPOs and capital increases from large-cap companies over a relatively short period raises fears that the supply of shares could significantly exceed demand,” she says.

However, she acknowledges that the underlying data suggest otherwise.

“The proposed IPO structures are likely to involve only 5% to 6% of total shares being offered initially, meaning the effective supply entering the market at the time of listing could be considerably smaller than overall valuations imply. Therefore, despite the record figures, the total share offering is expected to represent only around 1% of total stock market capitalization, a level that remains below long-term averages when measured relative to the overall size of equity markets,” she explains.

Nevertheless, Berger and Strzepka warn that this does not rule out periods of volatility in the stock, although they expect broader market volatility to remain contained.

“Historically, some large IPOs have created short-term market disruptions, but these movements generally do not have a significant or lasting impact on the market as a whole. While the new wave of large IPOs could exceed previous examples in size, it is worth remembering that total market capitalization is also much larger today than it was in the past: bigger fish, but also a bigger pond.”

SpaceX, One of Many

This leads to a second question raised by international asset managers: are we entering a new wave of IPOs?

According to Rusek, the answer is yes. He argues that a new wave of mega-listings is set to dominate equity markets in 2026, driven largely by artificial intelligence.

“Companies such as OpenAI, SpaceX, and Anthropic are preparing to go public at valuations measured in trillions of dollars, potentially creating one of the largest issuance cycles in market history,” Rusek notes.

History suggests that successful IPOs can create a “halo effect.” A successful offering paves the way for the next one, creating a virtuous cycle. Various reports indicate that several large companies are waiting for the right moment to go public. If the SpaceX IPO proves successful and its performance as a listed company is positive, it would be reasonable to expect other major offerings to follow.

“The rally in equity markets during 2025 and the first half of 2026 has boosted IPO activity, with implications for both private equity and public market investors. Two years ago, prices in public markets were below the levels at which private company owners were willing to sell. Following the strong gains since then—particularly in technology stocks—market prices and seller expectations are now more closely aligned,” explain Berger and Strzepka.

A Radical Shift for Passive Investing

For the experts at Neuberger Berman, it is crucial to analyze the implications of SpaceX and other mega-IPOs for passive indices, considering that approximately $30 trillion in assets globally track such benchmarks.

Index providers are now making active decisions about when to include mega-cap companies, what weightings to assign them, and how to adjust their rules to accommodate the anticipated surge in demand.

“Importantly, at the time of inclusion it is difficult to calculate an exact weighting in the S&P 500. Under current plans, SpaceX would join the index in June of next year, at which point more shares would be outstanding and the index itself would have changed. But based on a current valuation of $1.75 trillion, and assuming 53% of the float is available by June 2027, we estimate SpaceX’s float-adjusted market value at roughly $930 billion. That would translate into approximately a 1.4% weighting relative to the index’s current market capitalization of $65 trillion.

However, the mechanical buying pressure is considerable: our base-case scenario suggests that index funds could absorb 24% of the outstanding shares by day 15. This means passive investors will own SpaceX stock without having made an active decision to buy it,” explain Saccocia and Amato.

Their conclusion is that index inclusion will also require proportional sales of existing holdings to rebalance portfolios, primarily among large-cap constituents of the index and especially technology stocks such as Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia.

“Another factor to consider is that lock-up expirations begin periodically after the company reports its first earnings and well before its inclusion in the S&P 500. This is likely to add significant supply pressure,” they conclude.

Wellington Management Acquires Hartford Funds from The Hartford

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Wellington Management and The Hartford have announced the signing of a definitive agreement under which Wellington will acquire Hartford Funds, a provider of investment solutions for the wealth management market. Upon completion of the transaction, Hartford Funds will be integrated into Wellington’s U.S. wealth management business and will subsequently operate under the Wellington brand.

The transaction will enable Wellington to provide financial advisors and investors with broader access to investment capabilities, a stronger distribution platform, and more integrated support within the U.S. wealth management market. This will be achieved by combining Wellington’s global institutional investment expertise with Hartford Funds’ established relationships with financial advisors.

The acquisition transforms the companies’ long-standing strategic partnership into a single full-service organization capable of delivering better outcomes for financial advisors and investors over the coming decades. The combined organization will be a stronger independent investment manager, better positioned to compete in an industry that continues to evolve.

Jean Hynes, CEO and Managing Partner of Wellington Management, stated: “For more than 40 years, Wellington and Hartford Funds have worked together to support advisors and investors, and I am excited about what this combination means for the future of both organizations. Wellington’s nearly century-long investment track record is supported by a deep commitment to advisors, investors, and employees, and I know the Hartford Funds team shares that same commitment.

Together, we are building on the strengths that have defined our relationship to deepen our commitment to the U.S. wealth management market through expanded access to investment capabilities, broader distribution reach, and additional resources for advisors and investors. I look forward to continuing to build on the strengths that have defined our collaboration in the years ahead.”

From his part, Christopher Swift, Chairman and CEO of The Hartford, commented: “We are proud of the strong, advisor-focused asset management business we have built, supported for many years by Wellington’s outstanding investment capabilities. This transaction allows us to deliver immediate and sustained value to The Hartford’s shareholders while positioning the exceptional Hartford Funds team for continued success. This combination represents the ideal long-term home for Hartford Funds.”

A Four-Decade Strategic Partnership

Wellington and Hartford Funds have maintained a close relationship for more than four decades, built on a shared objective of delivering strong outcomes for financial advisors and investors.

The relationship began in 1978 and evolved formally in 1984 with the launch of a long-term mutual fund sub-advisory partnership. Since then, the collaboration has expanded to include new capabilities, such as ETFs and additional investment strategies, reflecting a shared commitment to innovation and growth.

Today, Wellington serves as sub-advisor for 83% of Hartford Funds’ approximately $160 billion in assets, supported by a sales and client service team of more than 160 professionals dedicated to representing Wellington’s investment platform.

Strategic and Operational Benefits of the Transaction

  1. A single, fully integrated platform: The transaction will combine Wellington’s institutional expertise and nearly century-long investment track record with Hartford Funds’ extensive advisor distribution platform and deep relationships with financial intermediaries. The result will be a stronger and more strategically aligned U.S. wealth management platform encompassing investment management, distribution, and client service.
  2. Expanded capabilities and solutions for advisors and investors: As an integrated platform, Wellington will provide advisors with broader access to investment strategies and solutions across mutual funds, ETFs, separately managed accounts (SMAs), model portfolios, and alternative investments. This offering will be supported by enhanced market insights, expanded capabilities, and improved service resources to help advisors address the evolving needs of their clients.
  3. Positioned for long-term growth: By operating as a single full-service firm, Wellington will drive long-term growth in the wealth management market through expanded access to investment capabilities, a larger advisor distribution platform, and broader commercial reach.

The combined organization will have approximately 200 client-facing professionals, offering broader solutions, more coordinated support, and a simpler, more consistent experience for advisors and investors.

Christina Kopec Rooney, Head of U.S. Wealth at Wellington Management, commented: “This combination strengthens our competitive advantage and the value we deliver to advisors and clients by bringing together Wellington’s investment capabilities and global expertise across both the institutional and wealth management segments with Hartford Funds’ U.S. distribution scale and highly regarded team.

I am excited about our combined strengths and the potential to innovate and deliver best-in-class investment solutions, deeper insights, and expanded access to Wellington’s capabilities, including alternative investments. It is a highly compelling combination built on decades of close collaboration.”

Greg Frost, President of Hartford Funds, added: “The partnership between Hartford Funds and Wellington is built on shared values, organizational alignment, and a focus on delivering excellence in investment management for advisors and investors. We are delighted to become part of a single integrated Wellington platform and believe this combination represents not only continuity for our clients and teams, but also a reaffirmation of our shared investment philosophy. We look forward to working together to build on our history and create new opportunities for growth and innovation.”

Transaction Terms

The estimated net present value of the transaction is $1.9 billion. Under the terms of the agreement, The Hartford will receive $300 million in cash at closing, in addition to further payments linked to the after-tax available cash generated by the combination of the Hartford Funds business and Wellington’s activities related to Hartford Funds—including the sale of certain Wellington-sponsored products in the U.S. wealth management market—during the seven years following the completion of the transaction.

The transaction is expected to close in the first quarter of 2027, subject to the necessary regulatory and fund approvals.

Transaction Advisors

J.P. Morgan Securities is acting as financial advisor to Wellington, while Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison is serving as legal advisor.

On behalf of The Hartford, Goldman Sachs is acting as financial advisor and Weil, Gotshal & Manges as legal advisor.

Investment Committees Gain Prominence and Displace Founders in Family Office Decision-Making

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The evolution of family offices toward increasingly professionalized management models is transforming the way these structures make decisions regarding investments, governance, and wealth planning. This is the conclusion of a new global study conducted by Ocorian, an international provider of services to asset managers and asset owners, including private clients, fund administration, capital markets, and corporate and regulatory solutions.

The research, based on responses from members of entrepreneurial families and senior family office executives responsible for a combined $119.37 billion in assets, reveals a significant shift in internal leadership models.

Today, nearly half (47%) report that an investment committee has the final say on major investment decisions or wealth structures, compared with just 6% who still leave this responsibility to the family founder. In addition, 39% say decision-making authority rests with members of the next generation, while 6% delegate this role to external advisors and 3% to family councils or boards of directors.

The report also reveals a unanimous consensus: all surveyed family offices believe their organizations have become more professional over the past year and have implemented significant changes to achieve that goal.

Among the most common initiatives is the development of a more diversified and professionally managed investment portfolio (54%), as well as greater use of specialized external advisors (51%).

Meanwhile, 46% report having strengthened their compliance, tax, and legal infrastructure, while the same percentage have advanced the development of more robust succession plans.

Other measures aimed at strengthening these organizations include the creation of more cohesive philanthropic programs (42%) and the enhancement of management teams responsible for overseeing the family office (41%).

In terms of governance, the study shows a clear consolidation of formal mechanisms. Sixty-five percent of family offices now have an investment committee that includes independent members, while 60% have established an advisory board for the next generation.

More than half (56%) have created a formal risk committee, and 54% have independent external trustees or a board of directors. In addition, 35% have established a family council, and 18% have adopted a formal family constitution or charter.

Despite these advances, the sector continues to face significant challenges, particularly in relation to the increasingly complex international regulatory environment.

Only 8% of respondents believe they are very well advised and fully prepared to meet current regulatory requirements. Most (74%) consider themselves to be in a reasonably strong position, while 18% rate their preparedness as average.

According to Dion Yee, Chief Commercial Officer at Ocorian, “Family office operations and management are undergoing an increasingly rapid process of professionalization, and many organizations have already introduced substantial changes to their governance structures and the way they make investment decisions.”

“Many are looking ahead and preparing for succession, and investment committees are progressively replacing founders in decision-making rather than automatically transferring that responsibility to the next generation. However, there is still work to be done, particularly given global regulatory requirements that continue to evolve and become more complex,” he adds.

Ocorian’s specialized family office division offers a comprehensive approach to helping families navigate the challenges and opportunities associated with wealth management. Its model is based on long-term personal relationships and a deep understanding of clients’ priorities.

Its core services include family office formation and administration, human resources support, luxury asset and lifestyle management, family governance advisory, residency and relocation services, as well as specialized support in immigration, visas, payroll, maritime and aviation crew management, and financial reporting.

Europe Leads the Top Vacation Home Markets for HNWIs

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Global Citizen Solutions, a residency and citizenship planning consultancy, has published its report, Best Destinations for Owning a Vacation Home as an HNWI: The Lifestyle Perspective. The study ranks 20 global markets and concludes that seven of the top ten destinations for HNWIs (high-net-worth individuals) are located in Europe.

The analysis examines 20 established global markets, represented by their flagship luxury vacation home destinations, and evaluates them based on three criteria: real estate market quality, quality of life and lifestyle, and destination accessibility.

The study’s main conclusion is that the highest-ranked destinations are not those that excel in a single category, but rather those that perform strongly across all three simultaneously.

The fact that seven of the top ten destinations are European is due, according to Global Citizen Solutions (GCS), to a combination that is difficult to find in other regions: favorable weather, high-quality infrastructure, political stability, and accessible rules for foreign buyers. In the words of Patricia Casaburi, CEO of Global Citizen Solutions: “Europe’s leadership here is structural, not accidental. The leading markets share a rare alignment of climate, luxury infrastructure, security, and ease of purchase that continues to make the continent attractive to lifestyle-oriented buyers.”

Spain stands out for its balance between strong property appreciation and the highest quality-of-life score in the study. Portugal, meanwhile, recorded the highest appreciation in the ranking (a 17.7% increase in median bank appraisal values through October 2025), a strong safety index, and relatively accessible entry prices—factors that support rental yield potential in markets such as the Algarve and Comporta.

France and Italy, meanwhile, attract HNWIs through long-term demand and prestige, even with more moderate growth or higher entry prices. Austria and Switzerland offer near-maximum levels of security and a limited supply of properties. The United States leads in air connectivity, while Greece ranks highest for climate, with the greatest number of sunshine hours in the study. Niseko, Japan, and Queenstown, New Zealand, are also attractive from a portfolio perspective, offering diversification and high levels of safety.

The analysis also identifies a clear divide between two types of markets. Southern European destinations—Spain, Portugal, France, and Italy—appeal to buyers seeking lifestyle, capital appreciation, and a property they will use throughout the season. Alpine markets, by contrast, are favored by those seeking intergenerational value: limited supply and buyers who tend to hold properties for generations. Austria and Switzerland achieved the highest safety scores in the study. Austria is the more accessible of the two for foreign buyers, with less restrictive purchasing rules.

Liana Simonyan, researcher at the Global Intelligence Unit of GCS, adds: “Using a three-pillar framework, this index ranks twenty established luxury markets, with deliberately greater weight assigned to lifestyle and destination appeal than to real estate fundamentals—a methodological decision based on how high-net-worth individuals actually experience their vacation homes.”

Condoleezza Rice Warns That the AI Race Between the United States and China Will Define the World Order

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Condoleezza Rice en el Summit Insite 2026

Former U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice argued that the world is undergoing a profound transition away from the international order built after World War II, and that artificial intelligence (AI) represents the greatest technological disruption within that reconfiguration. Rice spoke before financial industry executives at INSITE 2026, an event organized by BNY, where she analyzed the new geopolitical landscape, the risks facing the West from China’s technological advances, and the challenges AI poses for education and institutional leadership.

“For nearly 80 years, we had a system that progressively moved toward an international economy that was not zero-sum. My growth did not come at your expense,” said Rice. That system, she argued, is breaking down, driven in part by the inability to integrate China as a cooperative actor within the global order.

Rice noted that Xi Jinping stated in 2015 that China would surpass the United States in frontier technologies such as AI, and that since then the Asian country has behaved more like a challenger to the system than a participant in it. Added to this is a domestic backlash in the United States against 80 years of globalization, with broad segments of the population who did not benefit from the model now calling for manufacturing to return home. “There is a recalibration underway, and we are somewhere in the middle of that recalibration,” she said.

On artificial intelligence, Rice was direct: it is a two-horse race, and she wants a democracy to win it. Her argument is not only technological but also political. It will never be possible to predict all the problems AI will create or all of its power, she warned, which is why it is preferable for its development to occur in an open society, with investigative journalism and institutional checks and balances. Regarding China, she was categorical: it will manage AI very differently from a democracy, just as it did with COVID, hiding problems and lying about them.

The former official acknowledged that the United States holds an advantage in cutting-edge innovation, partly thanks to restrictions on exports of advanced chips to China. But she warned: “We make a mistake if we believe everything China does is simply copying.” As an example, she cited DeepSeek, the Chinese AI model that shook the sector at the beginning of 2025. All national security experts were stunned, she said, but no AI scientist was surprised because “they were reading the academic papers.” Rice also emphasized that none of the company’s scientists studied outside China, revealing the strength of its domestic research ecosystem.

She identified two areas where China has an advantage over the United States: the speed of AI adoption and the global spread of its low-cost, open-source models, which are expanding worldwide more rapidly than American models. In light of this, Rice called for preserving the U.S. innovation ecosystem and advocated minimal regulation. She proposed a framework aligning the interests of major infrastructure providers, frontier-model developers, and the federal government in order to avoid what she described as “an AI 9/11,” without slowing innovation.

The debate over AI has also reached the classroom. Rice, a professor at Stanford University, argued that students must learn how to use AI agents with judgment: as assistants to critical thinking, not substitutes for it. If the agent does all the work, the brain stops exercising itself, she warned. She cited a recent article documenting how instant access to information reduces the practice of analytical thinking: where someone once tried to remember the date of the Crimean War, they now simply perform a search. Rice said this phenomenon will force a rethinking of teaching methods and the way organizations train their employees.

Rice also warned about a troubling domestic trend: Americans are more skeptical of AI than any other population in the developed world. She attributed this skepticism to the prevailing narrative that technology will destroy jobs, increase energy consumption, and threaten people. “With that narrative around AI, is it any surprise that people are nervous about such a powerful technology?” she asked. To illustrate the point, she recounted the story of an 11-year-old daughter of a friend who was remarkably polite to her chatbot. When her father pointed out that it was only a program, the girl replied: “When they come for us, I’ll be on the list of people who were nice to it.”

At the conclusion of her remarks, Rice described AI, robotics, synthetic biology, and space exploration as “civilizational technologies.” If future generations can look back and say these technologies were managed wisely, given their immense power, then humanity will have met the greatest challenge of its time, she argued. The former U.S. official also warned that the answer is not to lay off workers and replace them with agents, but rather to explore combinations that enable greater productivity with the same number of people, enhanced by AI tools.

The Great Dilemma Returns to Central Banks: How to Curb Inflation Without Choking the Economy

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The task facing central banks in the coming months will not be an easy one. With a new round of policy meetings just a week away, experts point out that inflation risks are rising on the one hand, while growth forecasts continue to be revised downward on the other. Markets are pricing in interest rate hikes in both Europe and the United States; however, uncertainty regarding the duration of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is adding skepticism around those expectations.

What is clear is that markets are being driven by shifts in interest rate expectations and geopolitical developments, with tensions between the United States and Iran adding further volatility.

“Fixed income rallied as moderating inflation and central bank signals reinforced a more cautious monetary policy outlook. Equities remained resilient, supported by strong corporate earnings, particularly in the technology sector. The U.S. dollar remained firm thanks to the Federal Reserve’s relatively hawkish stance, while weaker European data weighed on the euro. Overall, interest rate expectations continue to dominate performance across asset classes,” explain analysts at Union Bancaire Privée (UBP).

The Impact of Hormuz and Iran

According to Raphael Olszyna-Marzys, International Economist at J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable AM, interest rates have shown a very close correlation with oil prices.

“The longer crude oil prices remain elevated, the greater the likelihood of second-round effects emerging. This is precisely the scenario central banks want to avoid, and their messaging has been clearly hawkish since the conflict began. In fact, they have been successful: market-based inflation expectations remain well anchored, especially at the longer end of the curve,” he explains.

This environment implies that much of the rise in bond yields reflects an increase in real interest rates. According to Olszyna-Marzys, if all other factors remain unchanged, this increase represents a tightening of financial conditions. As a result, it will weigh on growth and labor markets, in addition to the direct impact of higher energy prices.

“Central banks face a delicate balancing act: if they do not act decisively enough, inflation expectations could rise again; if they tighten too aggressively, the economy could slow more than necessary,” warns the expert from J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable AM.

For Olszyna-Marzys, market expectations for interest rate hikes are excessive, particularly given that investors are pricing in three additional hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB) before year-end.

“As a result, we expect some decline in yields once energy prices retreat. That decline will likely follow some form of agreement between the United States and Iran,” he notes.

A Broader Perspective

Against this backdrop, what can be expected from the major central banks?

For François Rimeu, Senior Strategist at Crédit Mutuel Asset Management, an objective reading of current U.S. data suggests that a near-term increase in interest rates could be justified.

“In our view, risks currently appear greater in U.S. interest rates than in eurozone rates, which could ultimately support further appreciation of the U.S. dollar against the euro. Naturally, much will depend on developments in the conflict with Iran and commodity prices. But absent significant improvement in the coming months, Mr. Warsh’s task appears particularly challenging,” says Rimeu.

David Rees, Head of Global Economics at Schroders, agrees that a rapid and lasting resolution to the conflict in the Middle East would eliminate significant tail risks. However, he argues that the damage already caused by higher commodity prices and supply chain disruptions appears to have pushed the global economy toward a more stagflationary direction that markets may not yet have fully priced in.

“We doubt that growth will prove resilient enough to force the hawkish central banks of Europe and the United Kingdom to raise interest rates. For the same reason, the rate cuts that markets had expected this year in the United States also appear unlikely to materialize,” argues Rees.

Regarding Asia, Rees notes that Japan should benefit from fiscal stimulus and robust wage growth.

“This, together with higher energy costs and a weaker currency, will keep inflation above target. As a result, the Bank of Japan is likely to continue moving forward with a gradual normalization of monetary policy,” he says.

He also notes that optimism surrounding growth and emerging price pressures has fueled hopes that the Chinese economy may finally emerge from three years of deflation.

“China could export supply-side price pressures and add further upside to global goods inflation. However, the continued collapse of the property sector suggests that hopes for sustained domestic reflation will ultimately be disappointed. The macroeconomic backdrop has already begun to weigh once again on equity markets and could, over time, also limit appreciation of the renminbi,” he adds.

Institutional Investors and Wealth Managers Believe Tokenized ETFs Will Drive Mass Adoption in the Markets

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Barriers to the expansion of tokenization are beginning to fall as major investment firms consider launching tokenized ETFs, according to new global research conducted by London-based Nickel Digital Asset Management (Nickel), Europe’s largest digital-asset-focused hedge fund manager, founded by former professionals from Bankers Trust, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan.

The study, conducted among institutional investors and wealth managers from organizations that collectively oversee more than $14 trillion in assets, found that almost all respondents (97%) believe that the potential launch of tokenized ETFs—such as those being considered by BlackRock—will be significant for the sector’s expansion. Nearly one-third (32%) view this development as very important.

The research also reflects a strong conviction that tokenization will continue to grow. Nearly 70% of respondents believe that the number of asset managers seeking to tokenize investment funds and asset classes will increase over the next three years.

The survey, which included firms from the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Switzerland, Singapore, Brazil, and the United Arab Emirates, highlights growing awareness of the benefits of tokenization.

Private markets are viewed as the segment with the greatest potential. Nearly 70% of respondents identified private equity as the asset class offering the most opportunities, followed by fixed income (55%) and listed equities (42%).

Shorter settlement times, enhanced risk-management capabilities, and lower costs were cited as the least compelling benefits.

The study also confirms that concerns surrounding the expansion of tokenization remain. Nearly three out of four respondents (73%) identified distribution challenges as one of the five main barriers to adoption among professional investors, while 70% pointed to the lack of maturity among service providers.

Tell Me Where You Are and I’ll Tell You Your Family Office’s Asset Allocation

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As geopolitical risk and structural uncertainty reshape global portfolios, family offices are placing a greater emphasis on resilience. According to the UBS Global Family Office Report 2026, most respondents are planning strategic changes to their portfolios, increasing currency diversification, and deepening their investments in artificial intelligence.

According to Benjamin Cavalli, Head of Strategic Clients and Global Connectivity at UBS Global Wealth Management, the latest edition of the report shows that family offices continue to adjust their portfolios gradually and methodically, diversifying across asset classes, currencies, and regions while maintaining exposure to long-term themes such as artificial intelligence, albeit with greater selectivity. “Many are considering reducing their exposure to the U.S. dollar or planning greater regional diversification, but North American assets still clearly account for the largest share of allocations,” he says.

According to the report’s findings, geopolitical conflicts have become the leading risk in both the short and long term, while concerns over rising global debt levels and recession risks continue to increase. In response, family offices are adopting a prudent, medium-term approach, prioritizing diversification across asset classes, currencies, and regions rather than making abrupt changes to their allocations.

Notably, for the first time, 60% of family offices plan to change their strategic asset allocation over the next 12 months, the highest level ever recorded by UBS. According to the report, developed markets remain the backbone of portfolios, but family offices are allocating increasing amounts of capital to emerging market equities and alternative assets such as infrastructure, while reducing exposure to real estate. At the same time, they are making targeted diversification adjustments, reflecting a disciplined, long-term investment mindset.

The report also highlights a significant shift in currency positioning. “Sixty-five percent of family offices expect confidence in the U.S. dollar’s reserve currency status to weaken, and many are reassessing their exposure to assets that are listed or denominated in U.S. dollars,” the report states.

According to the firm, this is driving broader adoption of multi-currency strategies, with the euro and the Swiss franc emerging as preferred alternatives. Regionally, North America continues to account for the largest share of allocations, although family offices are actively seeking to reduce concentration risk. Increasingly, they plan to raise their exposure to Asia-Pacific, Greater China, and Western Europe, reflecting a structural shift toward greater regional diversification.

A Regional Focus on Both Sides of the Atlantic

These are the broad conclusions that apply across the family office universe. However, the findings become more nuanced when examined through a regional lens. For example, U.S. family offices display the strongest home-country bias globally, with 88% of portfolios allocated to North America. According to the report, this reflects confidence in the depth, liquidity, and resilience of domestic capital markets despite global uncertainty. “While AI continues to lead investment themes at 65%, respondents are also showing growing interest in defense and security infrastructure (39%) and infrastructure investments more broadly (35%), possibly reflecting geopolitical considerations and growth opportunities,” the report notes.

According to UBS, despite global diversification trends, U.S. family offices remain relatively insulated, with portfolio strategies centered more on domestic strength than on geographic rebalancing. Nevertheless, they are not immune to broader shifts, including increased awareness of currency risk and structural market changes, although to a lesser extent than their counterparts in other regions.

In the case of Latin American family offices, allocations are comparatively more diversified, with 60% exposure to North America and 23% allocated within Latin America itself. “They are among the most active family offices globally when it comes to rethinking portfolio strategies, with 61% planning changes to their strategic asset allocation, above the global average,” the report states.

In the region, thematic priorities are centered on artificial intelligence (77%), infrastructure (55%), and energy and resources (45%), reflecting a combination of technology-driven growth opportunities and exposure to real assets. According to UBS Global Wealth Management, this dual focus may stem both from a global search for investment opportunities and from the region’s familiarity with resource-related investments, positioning Latin American family offices as relatively dynamic investors with a global outlook.

Looking at Europe, European family offices—excluding Switzerland—are among the most active globally when it comes to reassessing their portfolios, with 67% planning changes to their strategic asset allocations, one of the highest levels worldwide. Although North America remains the largest allocation at 45%, European investors are actively rebalancing toward Western Europe and Asia-Pacific, reflecting a strategic effort to reduce concentration risk. Artificial intelligence leads thematic allocations at 57%, followed by infrastructure (33%) and energy and resources (33%), demonstrating a balance between growth themes and structural investments. “These entities are at the forefront of portfolio repositioning, apparently driven by valuation considerations, currency diversification, and evolving global risk dynamics,” the report notes.

As for Switzerland, family offices maintain balanced and internationally diversified portfolios, with 50% allocated to Western Europe and 37% to North America. According to the report, their investment approach places a strong emphasis on stability, diversification, and innovation, with key themes including artificial intelligence (59%), energy and resources (41%), and automation and robotics (38%).

Compared with their global peers, Swiss family offices are moving at a more measured pace, with 43% planning allocation adjustments. Their portfolios stand out for their balanced exposure across both regions and themes, suggesting an approach focused on long-term resilience and technological transformation.

Dynamics in the Middle East and Asia

Turning to other regions of growing importance, family offices in the Middle East exhibit the highest level of planned portfolio changes globally, with 82% intending to adjust their strategic allocations.

According to UBS Global Wealth Management, their portfolios remain anchored in North America (50%), while also maintaining meaningful exposure to Western Europe and the Middle East, reflecting a hybrid investment approach. Their leading investment themes include artificial intelligence (50%), AI-enabled healthcare (35%), and infrastructure (30%), indicating strong interest in both technological adoption and regional development priorities. The region stands out for its proactive and high-conviction approach to capital reallocation, likely driven by a combination of opportunity-seeking behavior and the need to navigate global uncertainty.

Meanwhile, family offices in North Asia are highly technology-oriented and display significant global diversification, with substantial exposure to North America (47%) and Greater China (25%). AI adoption ranks among the highest in the world at 74%, complemented by strong interest in AI-driven healthcare (49%) and energy and resources (34%).

“Seventy-one percent of family offices plan to make changes to their asset allocation, suggesting a proactive willingness to reposition portfolios in response to evolving global conditions. Overall, North Asia stands out for its strong conviction in technology-led growth and cross-border diversification, balancing regional expertise with the pursuit of global opportunities,” the report states.

Finally, family offices in Southeast Asia are the most focused on artificial intelligence globally, with 88% already invested in the theme, the highest percentage of any region. Portfolios maintain significant exposure to North America (58%), while increasingly allocating capital to Greater China and Asia-Pacific, reflecting deeper regional integration. “Eighty-one percent plan to adjust their strategic asset allocation, suggesting an active approach to global economic and geopolitical changes. Beyond AI, the leading investment themes include energy and resources (50%) and automation and robotics (44%), reinforcing Southeast Asia’s position at the intersection of technology adoption and industrial transformation,” the UBS report concludes.