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Aberdeen explica en Santiago y Montevideo sus perspectivas para el mercado asiático

Aberdeen comienza este mes un breve roadshow por América Latina que llevará a la firma a visitar Chile y Uruguay.

En esta ocasión los expertos de la gestora han organizado un desayuno de trabajo el martes 30 de junio a las 8.45 de la mañana en el hotel Sofitel de Montevideo, y la jornada siguiente, el miércoles 1 de julio, tendrá lugar otro encuentro a las 8.45 de la mañana en el hotel Ritz Carlton de Santiago de Chile.

El evento, que lleva por título “Case for Investing in Asia”, contará con la presencia del director de Asia, Don Amstad, que comentará las perspectivas de Aberdeen para la región. En concreto su ponencia girará en torno a cinco temas:

Los factores estructurales de la región
Fuerte demografía y la creciente clase media
Dónde encuentra Aberdeen las oportunidades de inversión más atractivas en el universo de la renta fija y las estrategias multiactivos
Comentarios y perspectiva sobre el continente
Gama de fondos de renta fija y multiactivos de Aberdeen que invierten en Asia.

“En Aberdeen, hemos estado aprovechando el potencial de inversión de la región de Asia-Pacífico durante más de 20 años y creemos que el dinámico crecimiento de Asia continuará en el futuro”, explica Amstad.

Donald Amstad ha sido director de Aberdeen Asset Management Asia desde que se unió a la compañía en la oficina de Singapur en 2007. Amstad comenzó su carrera en Nomura antes de pasar a JPMorgan y acumula casi 30 años de experiencia en los mercados de renta fija. Ha vivido en Asia durante más de 15 años.

Si desean inscribirse en la sesión de Montevideo, pueden hacerlo a través de este link.

Para inscribirse en la sesión de Santiago, pueden hacerlo a través de este link.

La economía de México muestra más puntos positivos que negativos

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Desde principio de año, el índice MSCI Mexico ha ofrecido un rendimiento, en moneda local, del 4,9% (1,6% medido en USD), lo que supone una recuperación del 9,8% desde su mínimo de mediados de enero, dice Fernando Buendia, Mexico Strategic Solutions del negocio de Banca Privada y Wealth Management de Credit Suisse. La cifra es inferior a la del general MSCI LatinAmerica, que ha rendido un 6,8% desde principio de año. El momentum de los beneficios empresariales sigue siendo negativo, debido a las fluctuaciones de la divisa, puesto que el tipo medio de cambio en 2015 es de 15,05 pesos por dólar estadounidense, cuando en el 4T de 2014 era de 13,89.

Según este esperto, la bajada de los precios del petróleo -que se ha traducido en una disminución de los ingresos fiscales- ha obligado al gobierno a recortar el gasto público para reforzar la estabilidad de las finanzas públicas a largo plazo. Estos recortes implican –explica- un crecimiento de la inversión en infraestructuras menor de lo esperado, así como una ralentización general de la economía. Sin embargo, en su opinión, la reciente estabilización de los precios del petróleo debería ejercer un efecto positivo sobre la ejecución de las reformas energéticas, ya que los nuevos proyectos resultan ahora más atractivos. Así pues, su previsión es que “la economía estadounidense reacelere en los próximos meses, lo cual podría impulsar positivamente a México, pero por ahora hay que esperar para ver si finalmente es así”.

Más allá de esto, Buendía opina que el sector privado continúa evolucionando bien. Las principales áreas de la economía están registrando un aumento de la inversión, como sucede en el sector inmobiliario en particular, que se espera que bata su récord de inversiones este año. El consumo interno muestra signos de mejora, lo que conlleva una notable recuperación de las ventas. Según la Asociación Nacional de Tiendas de Autoservicio y Departamentales (ANTAD), el crecimiento de las ventas de cada establecimiento en los últimos 12 meses ha sido del 4,9% en abril y promedia un 5,1% en lo que va de año, cifra que contrasta con la media del 0,7% registrada en 2014.

“Aunque hay más factores positivos que negativos, parece que el mercado mexicano de renta variable está atravesando dificultades para batir su máximo histórico alcanzado en otoño de 2014”apunta Buendia. Puede deberse a la valoración, puesto que el múltiplo de la P/E a 12 meses vista es de 19, lo que sitúa al mexicano entre los mercados más caros del mundo. Un múltiplo tan elevado solo puede deberse a un aumento muy notable de los beneficios en los años venideros, cosa que no resulta muy realista.

En opinión del equipo de Mexico Strategic Solutions de la división de Banca Privada y Wealth Managemente de Credit Suisse “cualquier estrategia adecuada para invertir en el mercado mexicano de renta variable debería incluir la gestión activa, con un riguroso proceso de selección de valores, en lugar de la realización de inversiones pasivas. Nosotros apostamos por empresas con fundamentos sólidos, elevados rendimientos del capital, fuerte crecimiento de las ventas y valoración razonable. Hemos identificado oportunidades en el sector financiero, en ciertas empresas de comercio minorista, aeropuertos y FIBRAs (Mercado inmobiliario mexicano)” concluye.

Emerging Market Risks Hotting Up

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Investing in Emerging Markets continues to prove challenging and volatile, but Standard Life Investments has produced a heat map to assess the vulnerability of emerging market economies to future shocks. The risk profiles of emerging economies have changed considerably in the past six months. That is the period that will take the map and research to be updated with the aim of helping investors and fund managers improve their understanding of the large amounts of economic and financial data and potential threats currently facing emerging markets.

Countries such as Mexico and India generally look safer now, while conditions in already risky countries like Brazil and Malaysia have deteriorated further. The largest reduction in vulnerability was in Ukraine and Russia, thanks partly to better management of monetary policy, although this could change if there is a re-escalation of conflict between the two countries.

Jeremy Lawson, Chief Economist, and Nicolas Jaquier, Emerging Markets Economist for the Emerging Market Debt team created the heat map in October 2014 and produced an update in May 2015 which incorporates data following the two main shocks in recent months – the collapse in oil prices and sharp rise of the dollar.

Jeremy Lawson, Chief Economist, Standard Life Investments said: “Risk improvement was particularly prevalent in Eastern European countries such as Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic, thanks to improving fiscal policy and falling inflation. Mexico and the Philippines which scored amongst the most resilient back in October also continued to strengthen – as a large oil importer the Philippines benefitted from falling oil prices. India and Indonesia were also out-performers, cutting fuel subsidies and spending more on infrastructure.

“At the other end of the spectrum, vulnerabilities are heightened in economies with large macroeconomic imbalances or reliance on exporting commodities, such as Brazil, Chile, Malaysia and Turkey.

“The dispersion of risk highlights that emerging markets should not be analysed as a homogenous group, it’s essential that investors adopt an active unconstrained approach. Whilst emerging market risk remains well below pre-Asian crisis levels, the next challenge ahead will be the beginning of the Federal Reserve’s rate hiking expected in the second half of 2015 – it’s the pace of this that will prove critical.”

El Salvador se une a los esfuerzos internacionales para luchar contra la evasión fiscal internacional

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El Salvador Joins International Efforts to Fight Offshore Tax Evasion — CC-BY-SA-2.0, Flickr1 de junio de 2015 - (de izquierda a derecha) Francisco Galindo Vélez, Embajador de El Salvador en Francia firmado el . El Salvador se une a los esfuerzos internacionales para luchar contra la evasión fiscal internacional

El Salvador ha firmado hoy el Convenio Multilateral sobre Asistencia Administrativa Mutua en Materia Fiscal, convirtiéndose en el 86 signatario del instrumento internacional más completo para impulsar la cooperación contra la evasión fiscal internacional.

El Embajador de El Salvador en Francia, Francisco Galindo Vélez, firmó el Convenio en presencia de Carlos Cáceres, ministro de Hacienda de El Salvador.

El Salvador es el octavo país de América Latina y el tercer miembro del Mercado Común Centroamericano – después de Costa Rica y Guatemala – que se ha unido al Convenio.

El Secretario General de la OCDE, Angel Gurría, felicitó a El Salvador durante la ceremonia de firma, y afirmó que «se envía así otro mensaje poderoso a la comunidad internacional sobre el compromiso de El Salvador para luchar contra la evasión y el fraude fiscal internacional, mediante el aumento de la transparencia”. Gurría añadió que “la OCDE espera que el Convenio entre en vigor rápidamente, para que así El Salvador pueda aprovechar esta oportunidad con el fin de ayudar a restaurar la confianza en las instituciones y el Estado de Derecho «.

El Convenio, desarrollado por la OCDE y el Consejo de Europa, proporciona un marco multilateral global para el intercambio de información y asistencia en la recaudación de impuestos. El Convenio contempla: asistencia administrativa tributaria entre las autoridades para el intercambio de información previa solicitud, intercambio automático de información, inspecciones tributarias simultáneas y asistencia en el cobro de las deudas tributarias.

Desde que el G-20 situó la transparencia en el sector financiero y la evasión de impuestos en el calendario internacional en 2009, el Convenio se ha convertido en un elemento esencial de los esfuerzos de cooperación internacional. Es considerado como el instrumento perfecto para la rápida aplicación de la nueva Norma Internacional sobre el Intercambio Automático de Información de Cuentas Financieras, desarrollada por los países de la OCDE y el G-20, así como el informe sobre el intercambio automático “país por país” que incluye el Proyecto de la OCDE y el G-20 sobre la erosión de las bases y la transferencia de beneficios (BEPS).

El Salvador se convirtió en un miembro del Foro Global sobre la Transparencia y el Intercambio de Información con Fines Fiscales en 2011. La Fase 1 de la Revisión Entre Pares, donde El Salvador demuestra su alto nivel de compromiso con el estándar internacional para la transparencia fiscal y el intercambio de información, fue publicada en marzo de 2015.

Las 86 jurisdicciones que participan en el Convenio se pueden encontrar en: www.oecd.org/ctp/exchange-of-tax-information/status_of_convention.pdf

Fitch Rates Petrobras’ Proposed Notes Due 2115 ‘BBB-‘

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Fitch Ratings has assigned a ‘BBB-‘ rating to Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.’s (Petrobras) proposed senior unsecured century notes issuance. The notes, which mature in 2115, will be issued through its wholly owned subsidiary, Petrobras Global Finance B.V. (PGF), and will be unconditionally and irrevocably guaranteed by Petrobras. Proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes. Fitch currently rates Petrobras ‘BBB-‘. The Rating Outlook is Negative.

Key rating drivers

Petrobras’ ratings continue to reflect its close linkage with the sovereign rating of Brazil due to the government’s control of the company and its strategic importance to Brazil as its near monopoly supplier of liquid fuels. Absent implicit and explicit government support and its defacto monopoly position, Petrobras’ credit quality is not commensurate with an investment grade rating.

Government support is evidenced by the recent lending commitments offered by stated-owned Banco do Brasil and Caixa Economica Federal as well as the decision to maintain gasoline and diesel prices at the pump significantly above international levels in order to bolster Petrobras’ cash flow generation. By law, the federal government must hold at least a majority of Petrobras’ voting stock. The government currently owns 60.5% of Petrobras’ voting rights, directly and indirectly, and has an overall economic stake in the company of 48.9%. Petrobras’ cash position is sufficient to meet its short-term funding needs.

Petrobras’ Negative Outlook reflects the uncertainties surrounding the company’s ability to deleverage its balance sheet over the medium term. Petrobras may face challenges to deleverage its capital structure organically as the corruption scandal may result in delivery delays of production units.

Fitch will continue to monitor Petrobras’ strategy to strengthen its capital structure and expects the company to release coherent deleveraging program once the company releases its revised business plan for the next five years. Should Petrobras succeed in placing this proposed debt issuance, it will be viewed as a positive step in regaining access to the debt capital markets, which the company relies on in order to support its investment plans and funding needs.

Global ETP Flows in May Reflect Durable Demand For Non-U.S. Equities

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Amy Belew, global head of ETP research at BlackRock comments on the May ETP Landscape Report the firm just presented, that Global ETP flows of $18.3bn were concentrated in developed market EAFE equities and Japan funds. Europe and U.S. flows were modest as mixed economic data for both regions has led to uncertainty over growth prospects. Still, 2015 asset gathering remains ahead of the record year-to-date pace set in 2013 and nearly matched last year on the way to a new full-year high.

Broad developed markets equities gathered $6.4bn as demand remains robust for non-U.S. exposures. EAFE ETPs accounted for $4.2bn, with an additional $2.1bn going to global funds. These categories have quickly accumulated $35.8bn year-to-date and are set exceed the average of $45bn over the past two years.

Japan equities maintained momentum with $5.8bn as the Nikkei 225 Index reached its highest level since 20002. Flows were driven by strength in corporate earnings. Locally-domiciled funds led, though asset gathering has also picked up for U.S.- and Europe-listed funds.

Currency-hedged equities brought in $3.4bn, slowed early in the month by a stretch of U.S. dollar weakening that began in April. Flows have proven responsive to currency movements, and resumed toward the end of May across EAFE, Europe and Japan funds as the dollar exhibited renewed strength.

Broad EM equities gathered $1.6bn, and flows have now trended higher during consecutive months for the first time since August. Improving returns, accommodative Chinese government policies and the pause in dollar appreciation have helped turn flows around.

Fixed income flows overall were flat and have been volatile with investors uncertain as to when rates may begin to move higher. Pockets of strength persist, including U.S. investment-grade corporate funds, which gathered $0.9bn, and EM debt, which added $0.5bn to bring year-to-date flows to $3.2bn. But U.S. Treasury funds shed ($2.8bn). Year-to-date fixed income flows remain ahead of the record pace established last year, driven by investment grade and high yield corporate bonds.

Recon Capital Partners Enters Strategic Engagement with Brazilian RIA

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Recon Capital Partners, the issuer behind the Recon Capital FTSE 100 ETF and the Recon Capital DAX Germany ETF, has increased its global distribution efforts and strengthened its commitment to continue delivering global investment solutions by partnering with Bullmark Financial Group, one of Brazil’s fastest-growing RIA firms. The scope of the relationship will entail both firms collaborating on product development, enhancement and distribution with an emphasis on Latin American-themed exchange-traded products (ETPs) that mitigate risk via intelligent index construction.

“As Brazil is one of the top emerging markets, we see great potential in working in tandem with Bullmark Financial to develop much-needed, risk-conscious ETPs focused on the quickly growing Latin American market. Our affiliation with Bullmark is a significant decision to align two investment firms from different continents that share similar goals and parallel investment philosophies,” said Recon Capital Partners Chief Executive Officer Garrett Paolella. “This relationship marks the beginning of substantial development plans, strategic initiatives and future partnerships with similarly minded international investment professionals for Recon Capital.”

Bullmark Financial Group, headquartered in Brazil’s Federal District and staffed by more than 75 employees, offers financial planning solutions, wealth management and asset allocation services for high net worth clients, including individuals, families and institutions. “Bullmark Financial saw in Recon Capital Partners an accomplished firm that parallels our investment outlook and business model,” said Renato Nobile, CEO of Bullmark Financial. “By collaborating with Recon Capital Partners on products and global distribution, we are providing solutions to investors looking to tap into the Latin American economy and markets.”

Recon Capital Partners’ suite of international investment solutions includes the only US-listed ETFs to track the German DAX and British FTSE 100, trading under the tickers DAX and UK, respectively. Additionally, the firm offers the Recon Capital Nasdaq 100 Covered Call ETF (QYLD).

Smarter Data Management is Essential for Effective Fund Management

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BNY Mellon has published a new white paper examining Big Data’s credentials and its potential as a transformative tool in the current era of shrinking margins and ever-more sophisticated and powerful analytical tools.

The new paper —Big Data and Investment Management — highlights how custodians, depositary banks and administrators are positioned at the forefront of product development around Big Data solutions that address the complex and commercially critical issues of how to enhance both sales performance and client satisfaction.

The paper also examines how investment managers can utilize Big Data to bring together separate elements — dark pools of data, predictive analysis, behavioral finance — to allow the investment industry to enhance product design, drive sales and improve investor outcomes.

Daron Pearce, global investment manager segment head for Investment Services at BNY Mellon, said: «As the lines between the front, middle and back office continue to blur, smarter data management is essential for effective fund management. Big Data facilitates that – but also poses challenges. Through an understanding of these opportunities and potential obstacles, the investment management industry can use their own data to design, manufacture and market solutions more effectively with a view to generating outcomes that are more aligned to investor expectations.»

Mark Gibbons, chief information officer, EMEA at BNY Mellon, added: «B2C businesses have already embraced Big Data, developing sophisticated, data-driven profiling tools that enable tailored services for different client segments. While client, transactional and portfolio data is collected across the investment management industry for historical, regulatory and analytical purposes, most managers are yet to fully leverage these diverse data pools with a view to identifying key correlations and generating fresh insights. That is a particular area of focus for BNY Mellon, as demonstrated by our own Digital Pulse offering which tracks activities, processes and transactions within our company, resulting in predictive analytics that enable businesses to work smarter and drive improvement.»

Avoid European Equities Leaving a Bitter Taste

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Asset managers need to take steps to avoid losing investors along with the exodus from European equity funds once the sugar-rush effect of quantitative easing (QE) has waned, warns the latest issue of The Cerulli Edge – European Monthly Product Trends Edition.

European equity funds are enjoying their strongest flows in several quarters, thanks in part to the European Central Bank’s monthly liquidity injections of €60 billion (US$66 billion) to bolster the eurozone, but asset managers should be gearing up for the inevitable end of the cycle, says Cerulli Associates.

«Once investors start sensing Europe has had its run, they will want to take out their money. To realize longer-lasting benefits, asset managers must convince clients to stick with the brand by offering strong products in another sector, such as emerging markets, which are now presenting buying opportunities,» says Barbara Wall, Europe research director at the analytics firm.

The firm notes that investors in countries such as Spain and Italy are once again keen on European equities, going through private banking channels. Asia is showing more interest, while funds are also flowing out of the United States after a strong run. U.S. investors who bought when the euro and dollar were nearing parity are enjoying a currency bonus.

Flows into long-term active European equity funds hit €14 billion for the first three months of 2015, the highest quarterly level since the first quarter of last year. The firm believes that further positive flows are likely to continue, but for months, rather than years.

«Asset managers should enjoy the QE bonus flows while they last. But the pattern is unlikely to be different from previous cycles, and the end may already be in sight. Positive developments such as the definitive U.K. election result are being offset by Greece remaining in crisis mode,» says Brian Gorman, an analyst at Cerulli.

Other Findings include that Italy, Germany, and Spain were the most successful European countries for the first quarter of 2015, gathering €12 billion, €14 billion, and €3 billion respectively, driven in the main by investors’ demand for mixed assets and euro bonds, which attracted €12.2 billion and €8.5 billion.

European exchange-traded funds tracking Japanese equities saw net inflows rising to €1 billion in March from €370 million during February, as investors abandoned U.S. and U.K. equities in favor of opportunities in Japan.

Italian funds remain out in front for inflows among European markets, even if March did not quite match February’s stellar achievement. Mixed assets accounted for half the flows, and were slightly down on the previous month. Bond flow rates picked up. Money market funds, which have suffered outflows every month so far in 2015, were the only negative category.

Cass Business School Study Reveals M&A Strategies That Lead to Highest Shareholder Value Creation

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New research, authored by Intralinks Holdings Inc., and City University London’s Cass Business School, has identified the best-performing global businesses in creating shareholder value from mergers and acquisitions (M&A).

The study, ‘Masters of the Deal: Part 2, looks at 20 years of data’, the largest ever analysis of shareholder value creation from M&A, and analyzed 265,000 deals and the performance of over 25,000 global public companies. The research identified 1,469 elite global firms that consistently outperformed their peers in delivering above-average total shareholder returns. A complete list of these best performing companies in M&A can be found on the Intralinks website.

The report also found the common M&A strategies employed by these high performing companies, which had a significant influence on their outperformance. The strategies of these companies, referred to in the report as Excellent Corporate Portfolio Managers (ECPMs), included:

Bolder M&A strategies, with greater execution risk – cross-border acquisitions accounted for 38% of the value of all acquisitions by ECPMs versus 28% of the value of all acquisitions by other firms; ECPMs made four times as many hostile acquisitions as other firms.
Faster deal completion – 33% of all acquisitions and 33% of all divestments by ECPMs were slow to complete, versus 34% and 39% respectively for other firms.
Greater engagement with financial sponsors and public companies – ECPMs engaged in a higher proportion of deals than other firms where the counterparty was a private equity firm or a public company.
Greater use of all-cash consideration – 38% of the value of all acquisitions by ECPMs were all-cash, compared to 30% of the value of all acquisitions by other firms.
Avoiding large, transformational acquisitions by undertaking smaller acquisitions, relative to their own size, than other firms – the average value of acquisitions by ECPMs was 0.18 times their own sales, versus 0.26 times the buyer’s own sales for non-ECPM firms.
Making significantly more acquisitions than divestments – ECPMs made 3.4 times as many acquisitions, by value, than divestments, compared to other firms which, on average, engaged in the same value of acquisition and divestment transactions.
Making significant timing adjustments to acquisitions and divestments to align with market conditions and take advantage of valuation opportunities – ECPMs reduced the value of acquisitions relative to divestments during periods when M&A markets and valuation levels are increasing strongly, and significantly increased the value of acquisitions relative to divestments immediately following sharp market downturns.

The Best Performing Companies in M&A

Number of ECPMs per region:

US: 588
UK: 276
Europe, Middle East & Africa excluding UK: 275
Asia Pacific: 206
Americas excluding the US: 124

The Oil & Gas sector was found to have the highest percentage of firms identified as ECPMs (10.5%), followed by Industrials, Healthcare, and Technology.

Globally, 6% of all companies examined for the report were identified as ECPMS. Regionally, it was European companies that were more likely to qualify as ECPMs. In fact, 12% of listed firms in the UK and France identified as ECPMs, along with 9% of the listed German companies. Even though the US had the highest number of ECPMs (40% of total sample), the US as a region fell below the global average with only 5% of US firms identified as ECPMs.

Firms identified as ECPMs include:

US: Colfax, Concho Resources, Dana Holding, EMC, EV Energy Partners, FleetCor Technologies, Google, IHS, Monsanto, RigNet, Salesforce.com, Targa Resources Partners, TriMas, Vanguard Natural Resources

Europe, Middle East & Africa: Aberdeen Asset Management (UK), Intertek (UK), Mondi (UK), SABMiller (UK), Aros Quality Group (Sweden), HEXPOL (Sweden), AURELIUS (Germany), MBB SE (Germany), SMT Scharf (Germany), Burkhalter (Switzerland), Eurocash (Poland), Eurofins Scientific (Luxembourg), Nizhnekamskneftekhim (Russia), Jeronimo Martins (Portugal), Econocom (Belgium)

Asia Pacific: Hinokiya Holdings (Japan), Maeda Kosen (Japan), Ancom Logistics (Malaysia), C.I. Holdings (Malaysia), Tiong Nam Logistics Holdings (Malaysia), Austin Engineering (Australia), Corporate Travel Management (Australia), M2 Group (Australia), Mineral Resources (Australia), Silver Lake Resources (Australia)

Americas excluding the US: Alimentation Couche-Tard (Canada), Amaya Gaming Group (Canada), Black Diamond Group (Canada), Canadian Energy Services & Technology (Canada), Constellation Software (Canada), GoGold Resources (Canada), SECURE Energy Services (Canada), Trinidad Drilling (Canada), Mexichem (Mexico), TOTVS (Brazil)