Global investors have put some of their cash to work in spite of a more downbeat assessment of global growth and corporate profits, according to the BofA Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey for January. Investors have regained a muted risk appetite, turning to U.S. equities, bonds and real estate. The proportion of respondents overweight cash has tumbled to a net 17 percent from a net 28 percent last month. Average cash positions have fallen to 4.5 percent of portfolios, the lowest in six months, down from 5.0 percent in December.
More than two-thirds of investors say equities will outperform other major asset classes in 2015. Accordingly, a net 51 percent of asset allocators are overweight equities, down one percentage point since last month but the third-highest reading in the past year. A net 24 percent of asset allocators are overweight U.S. equities, up from a net 16 percent a month ago. However, a net 75 percent say U.S. equities are overvalued – the highest reading since the question first appeared in 2001. The proportion of asset allocators overweight real estate has climbed six percentage points to a net 9 percent. Investors also reduced net underweight positions in bonds.
Investors are less optimistic about the economy. A net 51 percent of the panel believes the world economy will improve this year, down from a net 60 percent in December. But, as deflation surfaces in the Eurozone, expectations of stimulus from the European Central Bank (ECB) are high. This month, 72 percent predict QE to start in the first quarter. Furthermore, the third quarter is now the most likely timing for a rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve, verses the second quarter a month ago.
“Lower oil prices and hopes for policy stimulus are sustaining both global growth expectations and investor confidence,” said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. “Amid expectations of ECB stimulus, consensus is convinced that Europe is the region to overweight in the coming year. But, on an absolute basis, European stocks will be vulnerable to headwinds from outside the region,” said Manish Kabra, European equity and quantitative strategist.
Equity allocations defy weaker corporate outlook
Allocations towards equities remain strong despite concerns about the prospects for profits and margins. A net 8 percent of global investors expect corporate operating margins to fall in the coming 12 months, up from a net 1 percent in December. The proportion of the panel expecting corporate profits to improve has fallen to a net 38 percent from a net 46 percent.
Only a small minority believes that a double-digit rise in profits is possible in the coming year. A net 53 percent now says that it is unlikely profits will improve 10 percent or more, up from a net 32 percent in December. On a regional basis, a net 41 percent of the panel says that profit outlooks are the most favorable in the U.S., with a net 20 percent backing Japan.
Oil and Energy – undervalued yet underweight
Investors see value in oil and in energy stocks – but it seems too soon for them to have made a move. A net 45 percent of respondents say that oil is undervalued, up from a net 36 percent in December and at the highest level in exactly six years. At the same time, a net 30 percent of the panel says that energy stocks are the most undervalued – up from a net 21 percent.
Allocators to energy and commodities remain weak. The proportion of investors underweight energy stocks has increased in the past month to a net 25 percent from a net 22 percent. Asset allocators have modestly increased allocations to commodities but a net 24 percent remains underweight.
Emerging markets fall further out of favor
With questions hanging over China’s economy, bearishness towards Global Emerging Market equities has intensified. A net 13 percent of asset allocators are underweight the region compared with a net 1 percent being overweight in December. Furthermore, a net 17 percent of investors say that emerging markets is the region they most want to underweight in the coming year. A net 41 percent of respondents to the regional survey say that they expect weaker growth in China in the coming year.
Foto: Anna Christina, Flickr, Creative Commons. La responsable de selección de fondos de la brasileña Itaú AM sale de la gestora
La responsable de la selección de fondos offshore en Itaú Asset Management, Eliza Pepper, se dispone a abandonar la entidad tras siete años, según publica Citywire. Itaú AM cuenta con activos bajo gestión de 153.000 millones de dólares.
Según la publicación, su marcha ha sido anunciada y no se sabe aún si se producirá de forma inminente, pero su potencial sustituto, Jeff Lombardi, ya se habría unido a la oficina que el grupo tiene en Nueva York.
Pepper se unió al grupo brasileño en 2008 en la oficina de Nueva York. Antes, fue responsable de análisis de gestores de inversión en UBS Wealth Management durante dos años. Entre 1999 y 2006 trabajó en Citi como responsable de análisis en su plataforma de inversiones globales para la división de banca privada.
Lombardi es el ex reponsable global de gestores de carteras de banca privada en Citi y es actualmente miembro del equpo de selección de fondos internacionales de Itaú AM.
Lombard Odier Investment Managers (LOIM) has named Théodore Economou Chief Investment Officer of LOIM’s multi-asset business.
The unit, which managed $5.2bn (€4.5bn) at the end of December, also includes a fiduciary management division.
Economou most recently served as CEO and Chief Investment Officer of the CERN Pension fund, where over five years he initiated a risk-based approach that came to be known as the CERN Model. The multi-asset, factor-driven model aims to preserve capital while maximizing returns relative to risk.
Economou will be based in Geneva and build on a similar approach that LOIM began applying to its own employee pension fund in 2009 and developed for institutional clients. The risk-based approach is designed to meet the needs of Sovereign Wealth Funds and pension funds. He will report to Jan Straatman, Chief Investment Officer of LOIM.
In multi-asset investing, portfolios are built with a global mix of asset classes and styles, including investments in public and private markets. Factor-driven—also called smart beta-—portfolios allocate assets to investments with identifiable characteristics or “factors” that account for their performance.
Before joining CERN, Mr Economou was assistant treasurer of ITT Corporation in New York where he managed pension assets and liabilities worldwide as well as the firm’s capital markets activities. Prior to that, he was a consultant with Accenture’s Financial Services Group in Geneva and Zurich. He holds an M.Sc. in Mechanical Engineering from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne and an MBA from Northwestern University’s J.L. Kellogg Graduate School of Management.
. Ivanhoé Cambridge compra por 2.200 millones el edificio Three Bryant Park en Manhattan
Ivanhoé Cambridge, el brazo inmobiliario del fondo de pensiones del gigante canadiense Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec, y su socio, la firma de private equity Callahan Capital Properties, han comprado el 100% de la propiedad de oficinas Three Bryant Park de 1,2 millones de pies cuadrados en el centro de Manhattan por 2.200 millones de dólares al grupo Blackstone, tal y como ha informado Ivanhoé Cambridge.
Ubicado en el 1095 de la Avenida de las Américas, entre las calles 41 y 42, Three Bryant Park es uno de los edificios de oficinas más prominentes de la ciudad de Nueva York. Three Bryant Park se ha convertido en una dirección comercial de clase mundial, que combina una ubicación inmejorable, vistas panorámicas, acceso a los principales centros de tránsito de la ciudad, además de unas instalaciones recientemente remodeladas.
Entre los inquilinos figuran firmas como MetLife, Verizon y Dechert, entre otros.
La oportunidad de adquirir una propiedad verdaderamente icono como Three Bryant Park es extremadamente rara”, dijo Arthur Lloyd, vicepresidente ejecutivo de Global Investments Ivanhoé Cambridge.
El 97% de la propiedad está arrendada a largo plazo a una lista de inquilinos de alta calidad crediticia. En este sentido, Lloyd subrayó que el inmueble “se adapta perfectamente a nuestra estrategia de inversión de construir una cartera diversificada de inmuebles de oficinas de alta calidad en los principales mercados de oficinas de Estados Unidos”.
The European Fund and Asset Management Association (EFAMA) has published its latest Investment Funds Industry Fact Sheet, which provides net sales of UCITS and non-UCITS for November 2014. 27 associations representing more than 99.6 percent of total UCITS and non-UCITS assets at end November 2014 provided them with net sales and/or net assets data.
The main developments in November 2014 in the reporting countries can be summarized as follows:Net sales of UCITS reduced to EUR 27 billion in November from EUR 44 billion in October. This fall in net sales came despite increased net sales of long term funds during the month.
Long-term UCITS (UCITS excluding money market funds) posted increased net inflows of EUR 31 billion, up from EUR 23 billion in October. Equity fund net sales returned to positive territory in November posting inflows of EUR 2 billion, against net outflows of EUR 6 billion in October. Bernard Delbecque, Director of Economics and Research commented: “The decline in stock market uncertainty brought back net sales of equity funds to positive territory in November.”
Bond fund net sales reduced to EUR 11 billion, down from EUR 16 billion in October. Balanced funds enjoyed a pick-up in net sales to EUR 13 billion in November, up from EUR 9 billion in October.
Money market fund net sales returned to negative territory in November posting outflows of EUR 4 billion in October, compared to net inflows of EUR 22 billion in October.
Total non-UCITS net sales remained relatively steady in November at EUR 16 billion. Net sales of special funds (funds reserved to institutional investors) remained at EUR 12 billion for the second consecutive month.
Total net assets of UCITS stood at EUR 8.02 trillion at end November 2014, representing a 1.5 percent increase during the month.
Total net assets of non-UCITS increased 1.4 percent to stand at EUR 3.17 trillion at month end. Overall, total net assets of the European investment fund industry stood at EUR 11.2 trillion at end November 2014.
Foto: PrimelmageMedia, Flickr, Creative Commons. Seis tendencias en real estate a vigilar en 2015
El mundo en el que vivimos está en constante cambio y a veces resulta complicado detectar las tendencias que le darán forma en los próximos años. KPMG ha estado siguiendo esas tendencias y considerando las implicaciones potenciales para la industria del real estate, según explica en un reciente informe.
“Estas tendencias no solo son para ser vigiladas y aceptadas sino que hay desarrollos reales que pueden suponer una llamada a la acción. Si puedes anticipar esas tendencias, podrás obtener oportunidades para tu negocio”. Éstas son las tendencias que ve KPMG para 2015 en real estate:
Globalización
Debido a la necesidad de diversificar más allá de los mercados domésticos, los flujos de capitales globales continuarán fluyendo. Esto traerá un mayor conocimiento de los mercados de real estate en su conjunto. La predicción de KPMG es que, como resultado, el universo de real estate se expandirá, con los inversores buscando mayores retornos ajustados al riesgo.
Cambio hacia “activos reales”
Sin duda, la mayor volatilidad y el menor crecimiento han llevado a los inversores a asignar una mayor parte de sus carteras a activos reales. Este término comprende una variedad de inversiones tangibles que dan a los inversores opciones y que proporcionan una estable fuente de rentas en momentos de mercado más débiles, así como acceso a una apreciación del capital en los mejores momentos.
Un mayor apetito por el riesgo
La llamada vuelta a la calidad ha llevado a una competición significativa por el acceso a activos prime en lugares muy demandados. En la medida en que los inversores están aumentando sus asignaciones a real estate, se están viendo forzados (por la competencia) e impulsados (por la mejora en el sentimiento económico) a diversificar. “Esperamos ver cómo nuevas ubicaciones geográficas, clases de activos y segmentos de activos ganarán popularidad”, dice KPMG.
La clase de activo se amplía
Los tipos de propiedades que se han venido considerando como especializadas hace poco tiempo atrás están convirtiéndose ahora en una tendencia principal. En la medida en que los inversores buscan cada vez más rentas de largo plazo, la demanda por activos con elementos operativos (como hoteles, residencias de estudiantes, etc.) están siendo foco de un mayor interés, lo que está llevando a una compresión de rentabilidades. Todos los signos apuntan a la continuidad de esta tendencia.
Mayor seguridad
La profundidad y la amplitud de las compañías cotizadas o REITs es está creciendo, con más balances conservadores tras 2009. El cambio de los planes de prestación definida a contribución definida está también apoyando esta tendencia, así como el surgimiento de vehículos de private equity compatibles con la contribución definida. ¿Continuará esto en 2015?, se pregunta KPMG, y la respuesta es positiva.
Deuda
El desapalancamiento de los bancos está haciendo hueco a nuevos entrantes en los mercados de deuda. La consultora recomienda vigilar este espacio porque considera que es la señal de próximas oportunidades.
Nuveen Investments has announced it has extended its offerings to non-U.S. investors with the availability of a new UCITS fund focused on large cap core equities. The new fund is offered via Nuveen Global Investors Fund plc through a UCITS structure.
The new fund is managed by Nuveen Asset Management (NAM) LLC, a Nuveen investment affiliate recognized as a global investment manager with a broad investment platform. As a $130 billion multi-asset-class investment manager, NAM’s collaborative approach to portfolio construction is driven by integrated research and risk management processes.
The objective of the fund is to provide long-term capital appreciation through investments in large cap core equity securities. Led by respected portfolio manager and market strategist, Bob Doll, the portfolio management team will select securities using an investment process that combines quantitative, objective analysis with fundamental, research-based measures. Securities generally are added to the portfolio based both on the ranking given to a particular security by the multi-factor quantitative models used by the management team as well as the fundamental analysis of the securities.
Foto: Warko. La superintendencia financiera chilena ampliará su supervisión sobre el Banco Penta y advierte "riesgo reputacional"
El superintendente de Bancos e Instituciones Financieras de Chile (SBIF), Eric Parrado, se dirigió este miércoles a la Cámara de Diputados para ofrecer una detallada presentación respecto a la situación financiera del Banco Penta. Además de llamar a la prudencia, Parrado afirmó que el banco se encuentra en una sana situación financiera y que la SBIF mantendrá un monitoreo permanente de la entidad.
En el marco de la comisión conjunta que investiga el caso Penta y el financiamiento de las campañas electorales, Parrado destacó que la SBIF debe velar por mantener la estabilidad y solvencia del sistema financiero y, por ello, toda acción se realiza con una lógica prudencial que permita cumplir con estos objetivos, en resguardo de los depositantes y el interés público.
El caso Penta estalló inicialmente el pasado mes de agosto como un posible fraude tributario, un caso que llevó a las administradoras de fondos de pensiones (AFP) a reducir su exposición a la entidad, quitando gran liquidez a los títulos, una medida que fue seguida por otros actores del mercado, poniendo en una delicada situación al banco.
A pesar de que la defensa de los empresarios involucrados ha insistido en que la investigación no afecta a las compañías del grupo, porque solo apunta directamente a sus controladores, se han producido masivas salidas de bonos.
Asimismo, Parrado afirmó que Banco Penta mantiene una sana posición financiera caracterizada por adecuados niveles de capitalización y liquidez. Sin embargo, acotó que el proceso judicial en que están involucrados sus dueños expone al banco a un efecto reputacional. Informó que en esta situación la SBIF implementó un plan de seguimiento permanente a la entidad.
Señaló que más allá de este caso puntual, que debe seguir su debido proceso, es importante señalar que para la SBIF es de la mayor importancia la integridad y solvencia de los accionistas controladores de un banco.
Por último, Parrado dijo que la SBIF seguirá promoviendo activamente dos importantes proyectos que seguirán fortaleciendo la institucionalidad en la regulación bancaria: La Ley General de Bancos y la Ley de Conglomerados Financieros. Ambos proyectos en los que el gobierno está trabajando y que esperamos se envíen al Congreso según lo planificado.
In «Getting Closer to Home,»Henry H. McVey, Member & Head of Global Macro and Asset Allocation at KKR, outlines key global trends that he believes will impact asset allocations for the year.
«While the general backdrop for risk assets remains favorable, we are no longer advising folks to «Stay the Course» as we did in our January 2014 Outlook piece,» McVey writes. «Rather, given where we are in the cycle and the magnitude of gains in recent years, we have begun the inevitable process of «Getting Closer to Home» in terms of our asset allocation targets. In particular, we do advise folks to raise some cash and to tilt the invested part of the portfolio to become more opportunistic in 2015.»
In the piece, McVey also outlines key themes that make compelling «arbitrages» in the global macro landscape that CIOs and portfolio managers should pursue this year. These include:
China’s slowing is not an aberration. As such, its role in the global economy is materially shifting, which means that McVey expects to see sizeable restructuring and recapitalization opportunities in sectors that previously over-earned and/or overstretched their footprints.
Many corporations still have inefficient capital structures, including too much cash and too little debt, in his view. As such, investors can still benefit from corporate and/or shareholder actions to lower companies’ cost of capital and/or improve growth, including buybacks, dividends, capital expenditures and acquisitions.
Despite a slew of liquidity in the system, many companies across both emerging and developed economies still can’t get proper access to credit. Hence, McVey still sees a compelling illiquidity premium that is worth pursuing, particularly in today’s low rate environment.
McVey suggests harnessing volatility in the liquid commodity markets. He continues to favor private real asset investments with upfront yield, growth and long-term inflation hedging relative to traditional liquid commodity notes and swaps.
Government deleveraging in the developed markets is disinflationary, which drives McVey’s thinking about the direction of long-term interest rates as well as the relative value of risk assets against the risk-free rates.
La Française REM purchased the PANORAMA SEINE and DOCKSIDE buildings, located 255 and 224 quai de la Bataille de Stalingrad respectively in Issy-les-Moulineaux (92130), ZAC des Chartreux, overlooking the river Seine, near Paris. Designed by architects Patrice Novarina and Atelier de Midi, and built by Sefri-Cime, the office complex was completed in 2008.
The acquisition includes two buildings: a seven-storey building (at 255) with 7,905 m² of office floor space; a two-storey building (at 224) with 2,082 m² of office space, including restauration facilities. The complex has 116 underground parking spaces. The global headquarters of the Sodexo group have been based there since 2008, under a twelve-year lease.
La Française REM was assisted by law firm Fairway Avocats and 14 Pyramides Notaires. The financing was provided by pbb Deutsche Pfandbriefbank, assisted by Lefèvre Pelletier & associés and Attorney Moisy-Namand. The seller was assisted by DTZ, as part of an exclusive mandate, and law firms K&L Gates and Le Breton & Associés.
