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¿Por qué la burbuja residencial sí puede ser posible en Colombia?

En Colombia existe una creencia según la cual el precio de los bienes inmuebles residenciales nunca baja. Esto, dentro del imaginario común, lleva a la falsa creencia de seguridad respecto a la inversión residencial, pues no se concibe en la mayoría de los casos caídas del orden del 10% o 20% en el precio de una casa de habitación, apartamento, etc.

Ese imaginario, surgido de la experiencia de generaciones anteriores que invertían principalmente en inmuebles, se ha transmitido hasta nuestros días, permitiendo que los precios residenciales suban y suban sin control aparente. Pero nos enfrentamos a un pequeño detalle: la forma en que se ha dado el incremento de precios en los últimos años pudo haber cambiado el ciclo de la vivienda, convirtiéndola más en un activo financiero que en un bien propiamente inmobiliario.

Ésta es la segunda parte de mi teoría sobre la burbuja residencial. Explico un poco: en generaciones anteriores la vivienda era, precisamente eso, una vivienda, por lo cual la compra de un bien inmueble se asociaba con el “nunca cae de precio”. Era lógico, pues al comprar vivienda para destinarla a vivir, los precios se mantenían. Pero al darse la dinámica como la actual, en la cual muchas personas toman los inmuebles en sustitución de un activo financiero, las cosas cambian (y deben cambiar). Esto convierte a los inmuebles residenciales en activos de compra, venta y especulación, y esto debe llevarlos a que, como en el caso de los bonos, las acciones o las monedas, tengan ciclos de subida, ciclos de bajadas, gente comprando por codicia y vendiendo por miedo. No puede ser de otra forma, no debería serlo.

Esto llevará a dos grupos altamente diferenciados: los que tienen su vivienda para vivir, que por definición es una inversión de largo plazo, y donde no importa mucho la fluctuación en precio (para cambiar de vivienda, se esperará el momento correcto); y los que tienen una vivienda (o más) como un activo puro financiero de inversión, a los que sí afectará el tema de la fluctuación de los precios y serán los que salen corriendo a comprar o a vender.

Ese cambio en la característica del activo va a tener consecuencias en el imaginario que hasta ahora ha tenido el sector residencial en Colombia. Me la juego con esta mi teoría (segunda parte), que ojalá alguien comparta.

Las opiniones expresadas son a título personal y no reflejan necesariamente la posición de Old Mutual sobre los temas tratados

Columna de Manuel Felipe García Ospina

Por favor ingrese al siguiente enlace para leer la notificación legal de e-mail de Old Mutual Colombia:

BOCHK AM y Citi lanzan un vehículo UCITS high yield en renminbis

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BOCHK AM and Citi Jointly Launch Renminbi High Yield Bond UCITS Fund — Foto: Arild Vågen . BOCHK AM y Citi lanzan un vehículo UCITS high yield en renminbis

Bank of China (Hong Kong) Asset Management Limited (BOCHK AM) y Citigroup Global Markets han lanzado conjuntamente el fondo High Yield Bond Fund BOCHK RMB. Este es el primer vehículo UCITS high yield en renminbis de BOCHK que se registra en Luxemburgo. El fondo tiene como objetivo generar un aumento de capital a largo plazo y renta mediante la inversión principalmente en títulos de deuda en RMB, con cobertura a esa moneda u otro tipo de exposición, informó Citigroup.

BOCHK AM es uno de los mayores gestores de fondos de RMB en el mundo, con mandatos discrecionales y de asesoramiento de 7.700 millones de dólares.

BOCHK AM lanzó su primer fondo de bonos de alto rendimiento en RMB en agosto de 2011.

Citi Market & Securities ha colaborado con BOCHK AM para lanzar este nuevo vehículo UCITS. Ambos actuarán como distribuidores del mismo, mientras que la entidad china asumirá el papel de gestor de inversiones y Citibank International (Sucursal de Luxemburgo) será el administrador y custodio del fondo.

El regulador de Luxemburgo (CSSF) daba el visto bueno hace casi un año al registro de fondos UCITS en renminbi (RMB) para inversores extranjeros cualificados, que se engloban bajo Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor fund (RQFII) y el esquema UCITS.

El optimismo de los inversores de EE.UU. está en su nivel más alto desde 2007

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Investor Optimism Highest Since 2007 — Foto: Robert Weißenberg. El optimismo de los inversores de EE.UU. está en su nivel más alto desde 2007

El índice de optimismo y retiro de los inversores escaló 46 puntos en el tercer trimestre, su nivel más alto en siete años, de acuerdo a la encuesta de Wells Fargo y Gallup. El índice ha subido 17 puntos en el segundo trimestre (+29), con la mayor parte de las ganancias derivadas del mayor optimismo de los inversores sobre el crecimiento económico y del mercado laboral. Mientras que el índice de optimismo está en su punto más alto desde diciembre de 2007, se mantiene muy por debajo que antes de 2008.

El optimismo entre los inversores no jubilados saltó casi 20 puntos a +50, mientras que el optimismo de los inversionistas jubilados subió 11 puntos a +35. La encuesta trimestral de Wells Fargo/ Gallup mide las percepciones de los inversionistas de Estados Unidos con 10.000 dólares o más en activos invertibles.

“Los inversores están diciendo que son más optimistas sobre la economía y el mercado laboral. Pero los no jubilados se preocupan por su capacidad para ganar más, y están escépticos sobre el si el mercado de valores es el lugar donde pueden hacer crecer sus ahorros”, dijo Karen Wimbish, directora de Retiro de Wells Fargo. “Claramente, el inversor medio no se ha olvidado de su experiencia de la recesión”, subrayó.

Respecto al futuro, la mayoría de los inversores no jubilados esperan que sus ingresos se estanquen. El 56% no espera que sus ingresos registren un aumento significativo en la actualidad, en comparación con el 42% que sí prevé un potencial crecimiento de sus ingresos.

Los inversores aún activos laboralmente y con 100.000 dólares o más en activos son especialmente pesimistas sobre la posibilidad de ganar más; el 61% no espera que sus ingresos sean en algún momento mayores que en la actualidad comparado con el 51% que tiene menos de 100.000 dólares en activos.

Para Winbish, los inversores con mayor cantidad de activos parecen sentir como si hubieran tocado teco. Lo han hecho bien, pero no aprecian oportunidades de continuar aumentando los ingresos en ese sentido.

Si quiere consultar el informe completo de Wells Fargo/Gallup puede hacerlo en este enlace.

Tracey Brophy Warson Named Head of Citi Private Bank in North America

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Citi Private Bank announced that Tracey Brophy Warson has been named Head of Citi Private Bank in North America. Ms. Warson succeeds Peter Charrington, who was recently named Global Head of Citi Private Bank. Ms. Warson will report to Mr. Charrington and be based in New York. She will be a member of the Private Bank Global Leadership Team.

«Since joining Citi Private Bank in 2010, Tracey has done a remarkable job growing our footprint on the West Coast. Since that time, she has significantly increased revenues and AUMs and built an exceptional team of private bankers and specialists who are doing a superb job serving the fast growing number of ultra high net worth clients in that market,» said Mr. Charrington. “We are excited by this appointment and look forward to her leadership in North America.«

Ms. Warson has nearly 30 years of experience working with ultra high net worth individuals, families and institutions. She was most recently Western Region Market Manager for Citi Private Bank in North America. In this role she oversaw ultra high net worth banking offices in Beverly Hills, Los Angeles, Orange County, Palo Alto, San Francisco, Phoenix and Seattle. Before joining Citi, Ms. Warson served as West Division Executive for US Trust, Bank of America Private Wealth Management where she built and ran the Western Region. Prior to joining US Trust she was Executive Vice President and Regional Managing Director of Private Client Services at Wells Fargo Private Bank. In this role she was responsible for Wells Fargo’s investment management, trust, private banking, wealth planning and brokerage businesses in the Bay Area. Previously Ms. Warson served as an Executive Vice President and Head of Sales and Distribution for Wells Fargo’s foreign exchange and financial risk management businesses nationally. Ms. Warson worked in the investment banking division of Citi in Los Angeles and started her career in banking as an International Banking Officer at Toyo Trust & Banking Company in Los Angeles.

Ms. Warson earned her BA in Business Administration and French from the University of Minnesota. She also completed a fellowship at the Université de Tours, in Tours, France. Ms. Warson has repeatedly been named one of «The Most Influential Women in Bay Area Business» by the San Francisco Business Times.

Population and Wealth of U.S. High Net Worth Individuals Reaches Record Levels

| Por Alicia Miguel | 0 Comentarios

A continued economic recovery, strong equity market performance, rising real estate values, and an «energy renaissance» that pushed U.S. oil production to its highest levels in over 20 years, boosted the population and wealth of High Net Worth Individuals (HNWIs) in the U.S. to record levels in 2013, according to the U.S. Wealth Report 2014 released by Capgemini and RBC Wealth Management.

The population of U.S. HNWIs jumped 17 percent to 4 million and their investable wealth by 18 percent to reach $13.9 trillion. Growth rates of both the HNWI population and HNWI wealth in the U.S. exceed the global averages of 15 percent and 14 percent respectively.

«Steady GDP growth, reduced unemployment, a falling deficit, and an energy renaissance boosted investor confidence and energized risk appetites in 2013,» said John Taft, Chief Executive Officer, RBC Wealth Management – U.S. «These factors contributed to record wealth levels in the U.S. Over the last five years, some of the strongest growth in wealth occurred in the energy and technology-centric cities of Dallas, Houston and San Jose, indicating that a broader mix of geographies and industries is driving wealth creation in the U.S.»

Twelve cities are home to the majority of U.S. HNWIs

Growth in U.S. HNWI wealth was driven by the top 12 cities by HNWI population – New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Washington D.C., San Francisco, Boston, Philadelphia, Houston, San Jose, Dallas, Detroit, and Seattle – which are home to more than two-thirds (69 percent) of U.S. HNWIs and three-quarters (75 percent) of U.S. HNWI wealth.

While New York still reigns, holding almost three times more HNWIs (at 894,000) and wealth ($3.2 trillion) than second-ranked Los Angeles (at 330,000; $1.2 trillion), it recorded the second lowest growth rate (12 percent) in HNWI population of the top 12 MSAs, ranking only slightly higher than Detroit (11 percent).

Tech and energy-centric cities increasingly leading HNWI population and wealth growth

The Texas cities of Dallas and Houston were stand-outs, leading in both HNWI population growth – at 20 percent and 18 percent respectively – and wealth growth, at 24 percent and 22 percent respectively. In fact, Dallas entered into the top 10 HNWI population centers for the first time, edging out Detroit.

While HNWI wealth remains mostly concentrated along the East and West coasts, the report notes that, between 2008-2013, three of the four fastest-growing cities in HNWI population and wealth have been those with ties to energy – in the case of Dallas and Houston, and technology – in the case of San Jose, pointing to a new pattern of HNWI wealth creation in the U.S.

Greater risk-taking supported by surging trust in wealth industry

According to the report’s Global HNW Insights Survey, U.S. HNWIs’ trust in all aspects of the wealth management industry surged by double-digit rates between early 2013 and early 2014. Trust in wealth managers and firms increased 12 percentage points each to 84 percent and 87 percent respectively, putting U.S. HNWIs well above their peers in the rest of the world (71 percent and 72 percent respectively).

Increased trust supported a greater appetite for risk, with allocations to alternative investments up by four percentage points to 13 percent of portfolios, while equity allocations remained the highest across the globe at one-third of portfolios (and up to 41 percent in Washington D.C., highest in the U.S.). U.S. HNWIs were also more inclined to invest beyond North American borders, with their international allocations up to 33 percent in early 2014 from only 20 percent of portfolios a year earlier. This trend was particularly driven by HNWIs aged under 40 who invested 53 percent of their wealth in foreign markets.

Despite increased trust in wealth managers, HNWIs’ assessment of wealth manager performance dropped by six percentage points to 73 percent, though remains much higher than the rest of the world average of 59 percent. Declining scores signal opportunities for firms to reposition their offerings to meet specific HNWI preferences, especially for HNWIs under 40 versus their counterparts aged 60 and over.

Younger HNWIs are more likely to classify their needs as complex (38 percent vs. nine percent), seek family wealth advice (35 percent vs. 13 percent) and demand digital (internet, mobile, email) contact over direct personal contact (39 percent vs. 15 percent). Given the strong preference for digital interactions, wealth management firms will need to take proactive steps to meet increasing demands in this area.

«There is great opportunity for wealth management firms to reposition and strengthen their offerings in response to declining performance scores,»said Jean Lassignardie, Chief Sales and Marketing Officer, Capgemini Financial Services. «One way to respond to clients is by developing an integrated channel experience that not only maintains their wealth manager relationship but enhances it through digital enablement.»

As U.S. HNWIs expressed a pronounced preference to work with a single firm (54 percent vs. 11 percent multiple firms), firms that work with them will need to continue to deliver against the specific needs of their clients to drive high satisfaction levels.

Younger and female HNWIs could signal shift in causes supported by U.S. wealth

Making a positive impact on society through investing time, money or expertise is important to the vast majority (88 percent) of U.S. HNWIs and extremely or very important to 56 percent. HNWIs under 40 are particularly focused on driving social impact, with 81 percent citing driving social impact as extremely or very important.

Younger HNWIs also favor different causes than their older peers (aged 60 and over), citing social programs, race relations, gender inequality, energy security and unemployment as their top five priorities, while their older counterparts favor child welfare, education, and health. Given the rising wealth among younger HNWIs, there could be a shift in the types of social issues that get the most attention in the U.S. moving forward.

Female HNWIs are likely to have a greater influence on driving social impact going forward. As with younger HNWIs, female HNWIs place great value on driving social impact, with 62 percent citing it as extremely or very important, compared to 50 percent of male HNWIs.

View the report at this link.

Guggenheim Partners Hires Securities Executive Gerald A. Donini

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Guggenheim Partners has announced the hiring of Gerald A. Donini as a Senior Managing Director. Mr. Donini will work closely with senior management to identify and develop business opportunities for the firm.

«We are pleased to welcome Jerry to our team,» said Alan Schwartz, Executive Chairman of Guggenheim Partners and CEO of Guggenheim Securities. «Jerry’s reputation as a leader and his expertise in building markets platforms will enhance our ability to scale our businesses. Moreover, Jerry is a perfect fit with our team-oriented culture.»

«I am excited about the business that Alan and the team at Guggenheim are building,» Mr. Donini said. «In a short time, Guggenheim has emerged as a highly respected partner known for its client service and differentiated approach within the securities industry. That recognition and trust from the clients provide us with a great foundation to move forward.»

Mr. Donini was most recently the Chief Operating Officer of Barclays Global Corporate and Investment Banking. Prior to that, he served as the Global Head of Equities at both Lehman Brothers and Barclays. Mr. Donini served on both firms’ Executive Committees.

He graduated with a B.A. in Economics from Brown University.

BlackRock emite dos nuevos TRACs en la Bolsa Mexicana

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BlackRock México emitió este miércoles dos nuevas ofertas públicas de certificados bursátiles fiduciarios indizados en la Bolsa de Valores de México, tal y como informó esta última a través de un comunicado.

La primera Oferta de Certificados Bursátiles Fiduciarios corresponde al iShares MSCI Mexico Momentum TRAC, clave de cotización «MEXMTUM», por un monto total de 3.913 millones de pesos. El fiduciario del fideicomiso emisor fue Nacional Financiera, S.N.C., Institución de Banca de Desarrollo.

Este TRAC, como se les conoce a los ETFs en México, replicará al MSCI Mexico Select Mometum Capped Index, integrado por acciones de empresas mexicanas de gran y mediana capitalización, y que está diseñado para reflejar el rendimiento con énfasis en acciones con un alto impulso en su precio, manteniendo una liquidez comercial relativamente alta, capacidad de inversión y una rotación moderada.

El rendimiento de los Certificados Bursátiles buscará replicar el rendimiento total (antes de gastos) del MSCI Mexico Select Mometum Capped Index.

Oferta TRAC MSCI Mexico Select Risk Weighted Index

Por su parte, la segunda Oferta de Certificados Bursátiles Fiduciarios se refiere al iShares MSCI Mexico Risk TRAC, con clave de cotización “MEXRISK”, por un monto total que ascendió a 1.950 millones de pesos. En esta ocasión, Nacional Financiera, S.N.C., Institución de Banca de Desarrollo, también fungió como fiduciario del fideicomiso emisor.

El TRAC listado replicará al MSCI Mexico Select Risk Weighted Index, que está conformado por acciones de empresas mexicanas de gran y mediana capitalización, y diseñado para reflejar el rendimiento de acciones, excluyendo REITs (Real Estate Investment Trust), que puedan lograr que las acciones con menor riesgo tengan un peso más alto en el mismo índice, con el objetivo de enfatizar las acciones con menor variación histórica de retornos y tendientes a tener un sesgo hacia acciones de menor tamaño y menor riesgo.

De igual forma, el rendimiento de los Certificados Bursátiles buscará replicar el rendimiento total (antes de gastos) del MSCI Mexico Select Risk Weighted Index. En los dos listados de TRACs, el Intermediario Colocador fue Merrill Lynch, S.A. de C.V., Casa de Bolsa.

Los flujos de fondos podrían apoyar la deuda de mercados emergentes

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Flows Should Prove Supportive for Emerging Market Debt — Foto: Phil Whitehouse. Los flujos de fondos podrían apoyar la deuda de mercados emergentes

Los flujos de salida en deuda de mercados emergentes durante la corrección de 2013-2014 ascendieron a la importante cifra de 31.000 millones de dólares. En los meses posteriores Investec AM ha observado flujos de entrada sostenidos en este activo provocados por su atractivo rendimiento, que ha generado un compromiso renovado por parte de los inversionistas. Investec ha visto como su propia base de clientes iba aumentado su participación en deuda emergente, en especial entre los institucionales.

Agosto puso fin al período ininterrumpido de flujos de entrada, con algunas salidas en deuda en denominada en monedas fuertes. Según el administrador de activos, esto es un síntoma saludable puesto que la clase de activos había funcionado bien y una toma de ganancias era inevitable, y de hecho es probable que haya más movimientos de ida y vuelta de flujos durante los próximos meses.

Aunque Investec AM no espera que los flujos netos en deuda emergente para el año 2015 lleguen a los niveles vertiginosos de 40.000 a 80.000 millones de dólares que se registraron en el pasado, sí esperan una mejora gradual. Dada la magnitud de las ventas durante el periodo 2013-2014, el administrador de activos considera que la posición global es aún relativamente baja por lo que se esperan flujos favorables por parte de los inversores institucionales, sobre todo en EE.UU., en la medida en que vayan corrigiendo su infraponderación a esta clase de activos. Los programas de reformas más amplios que se esperan en varios mercados emergentes también ayudarán a mantener la confianza de los inversores y a estimular los flujos hacia los activos de mercados emergentes.

Puede acceder al informe completo de Investec AM a través de este link.

Marathon Asset Management Appoints Diego Gradowczyk as New Co-Head of Emerging Markets

| Por Alicia Miguel | 0 Comentarios

Marathon Asset Management, a New York-based global investment advisor overseeing approximately $12.5 billion in assets, has announced that Diego Gradowczyk, former Head of Emerging Markets Trading at Barclays Plc, has joined the firm as a Senior Managing Director and co-Head of Emerging Markets. In his new role, Gradowczyk will co-run the firm’s emerging markets group with Partner and group co-Lead, Gabriel Szpigiel and be a member of the firm’s executive committee. Marathon also announced that it has added Andrew Szmulewicz, a former Executive Director at J.P. Morgan Chase in the Global Index Research Group, to its emerging markets team.

A focus of the firm since its inception in 1998, Marathon’s Emerging Markets Group is comprised of a highly experienced global team of professionals in the firm’s New York, London and Singapore offices. The group takes an opportunistic, flexible approach to capitalize on the wide array of opportunities available across the different emerging market geographies, including Latin America, Eastern Europe and Asia.

«Emerging markets is one of our core competences and main strategic areas of focus,» said Louis Hanover, co-Managing Partner and Chief Investment Officer for Marathon Asset Management. «We are highly committed to continually looking for ways to strengthen this team to provide our clients with best-in-class investment opportunities. Adding these two extremely accomplished individuals is a testament to this promise and will help us ensure we continue to deliver cutting-edge investment ideas in this space.»

«We are very excited to announce the addition of Diego and Andrew, two very high-caliber investment professionals, to our emerging markets team,» said Gabriel Szpigiel, Partner and Co-Head of Emerging Markets for Marathon Asset Management. «Together, they will help us increase our franchise and investing capabilities in these geographical regions. We look forward to integrating Diego and Andrew into our team and working with them to grow our business.»

Gradowczyk added: «This is an amazing opportunity and I am extremely honored to join a world class firm like Marathon Asset Management. Right now is an exciting time in emerging markets and I am greatly looking forward to working together with Gabriel and the rest of the team to help grow the firm’s emerging markets business.»

With more than two decades of experience working in the space, Gradowczyk brings a tremendous amount of emerging markets investing experience to Marathon. After joining Barclays in 2001, he ran the firm’s Emerging Markets Trading desk for nearly ten years. Prior to Barclays, Gradowczyk was a partner and portfolio manager at Compass Group, a New York-based investment management firm focused on emerging markets.

Szmulewicz previously worked in J.P. Morgan Chase’s Global Index Research group, where he contributed to many of the firm’s emerging market indices, including being a key contributor to the CEMBI index.

Barclays appoints Akshaya Bhargava as Chief Executive of Wealth and Investment Management

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Barclays has today announced that Akshaya Bhargava has been appointed as Chief Executive of Wealth and Investment Management. He will join Barclays on 13 October 2014.

With over 35 years’ experience in the financial services industry, Akshaya joins from InfraHedge which he founded in 2010 and was acquired by State Street Corporation at the end of 2013. Prior to this he was CEO of Butterfield Fulcrum Group and founding CEO of Infosys BPO. He spent 22 years at Citibank, leading teams in London, India and the Czech Republic.

Announcing the appointment, Ashok Vaswani, Chief Executive of Barclays Personal and Corporate Banking, said:

“I’m delighted that Akshaya is joining to lead our Wealth and Investment Management business. Akshaya brings with him deep management experience and a strong track record of business development and growth. Appointing Akshaya, with his breadth of global financial services knowledge and experience in creating bespoke investment platforms, is a significant coup for the business.

“The wealth management industry is evolving and clients’ needs are changing. A leader who can drive success through transformational times and harness new technologies to enhance the client experience will help to position Barclays at the forefront of this industry revolution.”

Akshaya Bhargava, Chief Executive, Barclays Wealth and Investment Management, said:

“Barclays Wealth and Investment Management is well placed to deliver a market leading set of global banking and investment solutions to high net worth clients. This is an exciting time to be joining Barclays and I feel privileged to be taking charge of the next chapter in the growth and evolution of the business.”

Akshaya began his career at Citibank in India in Operations and Relationship Management roles before moving into Transaction Services, based out of London. He was Chairman and Country Manager of Citibank in the Czech Republic for four years, before heading back to London as Global Product Management Head for Small Business Banking.

After 22 years with Citibank, he was approached by Infosys to set up a Business Process Outsourcing offering in India. He led the business from a start up to No 7 rank in the industry in four years by focusing on the more complex and high value segment of the market. After Infosys absorbed the business in 2006, he took on the CEO role for the hedge fund administrator Butterfield Fulcrum. He saw the business through the financial crisis, restructuring it into a profitable business. In 2010 he set up InfraHedge, a hedge fund managed account platform, which was acquired by State Street Corporation at the end of 2013.

Akshaya graduated in India with a BA in Economics and MBA in Finance and Marketing. At State Street Bank he holds the following 3 active authorisations from the FCA – CF1 (Director), CF3 (Chief Executive) and CF30 (Customer).