La fortaleza del dólar beneficia a los inversores europeos en fondos de renta variable norteamericana sin cobertura

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European Investors in US Funds Find Compensation in a Strong Dollar, if the Product Is Unhedged
Foto: sean hobson . La fortaleza del dólar beneficia a los inversores europeos en fondos de renta variable norteamericana sin cobertura

Los gestores de fondos de renta variable estadounidenses deberían mirar más allá del corto plazo para ver las oportunidades, ya que el fortalecimiento de la mayor economía del mundo y un dólar al alza podría beneficiar a los inversores europeos, según el último número de The Cerulli Edge.

Mientras que los fondos de renta variable estadounidense deben soportar vientos en contra en 2016 -incluyendo el período previo a las elecciones presidenciales, nuevas subidas de tipos y valoraciones generosas- también se pueden encontrar aspectos positivos, dice el documento.

«Las subidas de la Fed pueden fortalecer el dólar, por lo que las exportaciones estadounidenses serían menos competitivas, lo que contuvo a algunas empresas en 2015. Sin embargo, para los inversores europeos en fondos norteamericanos, existe una compensación en un dólar fuerte, si el producto no cuenta con cobertura«, dice Barbara Wall, MD para Europa de la firma global de análisis.

En los 12 meses anteriores a noviembre de 2015, el S&P 500 apenas rozó el territorio positivo en términos de dólares, quedando por debajo de los europeos,  pero en euros creció un 20%.

El documento señala que la economía de Estados Unidos avanza camino de la recuperación y, habiendo creado más de 10 millones de empleos en los últimos años, puede esperar una fuerte demanda interna, lo que reduciría la dependencia de las exportaciones, dice Brian Gorman, analista de la firma. Las inversiones en las envejecidas infraestructuras de los EE.UU. deberían resultar positivas para las grandes firmas industriales del sector, añade.

«La clave puede estar en la selección de valores si los inversores quieren aprovechar el crecimiento y limitar las pérdidas, en caso de que el mercado tuviera un comportamiento tan negativo como algunos temen. Las empresas con buenos historiales, con ventas razonables, puede esperar mayores beneficios, especialmente si algunas se quedan por el camino», mantiene Gorman.

Gorman menciona el US Value Fund de MFS Investments como uno de los que presenta un comportamiento más estable, desde su lanzamiento en 2002, señalando que mientras que los fondos pasivos suponen una amenaza para los activos, es durante los tiempos más difíciles cuando éstos ganan sus fees. «El reciente retroceso ha hecho que muchas empresas estén considerablemente más baratas. El mejor fondo activo distinguirá entre las oportunidades de compra reales y los casos en los que se seguirá sufriendo. Abundan los fondos con resultados fuertes, como el US Blue Chip equity funddomiciliado en Luxemburgo de T. Rowe Price, con una selección de acciones que está dando muchas alegrías, en particular en el sector salud”.

Reconociendo que las turbulencias provenientes de China pueden provocar más salidas de los fondos de renta variable en los primeros meses de 2016, la firma cree que una economía fuerte en Estados Unidos ayudará a generar beneficios corporativos sostenibles, dividendos, una fuerte actividad en fusiones y adquisiciones y en los programas de recompra de acciones.

«Los fondos de renta variable estadounidenses con un buen historial de selección de acciones pueden esperar vender en Europa, dada la falta de alternativas. El potencial de crecimiento es claro, siempre que los mejores fondos puedan mitigar las pérdidas que se produzcan durante los tiempos más difíciles”, dice Wall.

 

New Record Inflows for the Global ETP Industry: 2.95 Billion Dollar by the End of 2015

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ETP assets up 8.3% reaching US$ 2.95 trillion in 2015 driven by record inflows Global ETP industry reached near the US$ 3 trillion mark and closed at US$ 2.95 trillion by the end of 2015. Amid volatile markets last year, ETP assets grew by 8.3% mainly attributable to organic sources (i.e. new money inflows) which made up 13.7%, while prices went negative and eroded 5.5% from overall assets. Year-on-year, organic growth or new money inflows continued to remain strong and provided healthy growth to the ETP industry.

Similar to 2014, global ETP industry once again received healthy inflows in 2015 recording inflows of US$ 373.8 billion but this time it is the highest ever flows total for any of the years historically. Flows for US listed ETPs were similar to last year but Europe and Asia listed ETPs saw significant jump in new creations. During the last three years’ equities have stood as leaders contributing the major portion of the inflows, but since 2014 fixed income ETFs also showed significant signs of growth and contributed US$ 105.4 billion in 2015 (US$ 89.4 billion in 2014).

The US, Europe, Asia-Pac, and RoW regional ETP assets closed the year at US$ 2.11 trillion (+6.8%), US$ 507.4 billion (+10.6%), US$ 250.2 billion (+23.8%), and US$ 74.7 billion (-7.9%), respectively.

ETP assets likely to reach US$ 3.46 trillion at the end of 2016

Deutsche Bank Markets Research projects the industry will continue to grow significantly in 2016 despite potential weak markets. In their base case scenario, assuming a neutral market condition, global ETF assets may grow by 17.8%: broken down into 11.6% or US$ 335 billion growth from new flows, and 5.5% from price appreciation. This growth should put the ETF assets well on their way to US$ 3.4 trillion by the end of 2016. Deutsche Bank Markets Research expects the US ETF market to be the major contributor with asset growth of 16.1% and inflows in the vicinity of US$ 230 billion. In a bull market case, ETF assets may grow by 29.7% reaching over US$ 3.7 trillion. Deutsche Bank Markets Research expects ETPs (including ETFs and other exchange traded products such as ETVs/ETCs) to experience a similar growth rate and reach about US$ 3.46 trillion in 2016 in their base case scenario, and pass US$ 3.8 trillion in a bull market case.

ETF flows suggest that investors continue to prefer less risky assets 2015 was another strong year for global equity flows with over US$ 250 billion.

Similarly, fixed income ETP flows also attracted healthy amounts of new cash reaching just above US$ 100 billion at the end of last year. However, other asset classes such as commodities with under US$ 5 billion of inflows didn’t enjoy the same degree of interest from investors.

Most of the major trends happened within equities. Among equity products, ETPs with exposure to developed markets excluding the US received the largest new allocations with inflows of US$ 195 billion last year. Meanwhile European focused and Japan-focused equity products also received significant attention from investors with positive flows of US$ 80 billion and US$ 50 billion, respectively.

ETPs tracking US equities didn’t fall short either, and attracted US$ 66 billion in inflows during the same period. On the other hand, ETFs with focus on Chinese equities also received significant attention, but mostly due to the exodus of investors who pulled about US$ 15 billion away from these funds. Outside equities, the most remarkable trend was registered in fixed income where the investment grade space received over US$ 70 billion inflows during 2015.

Going into 2016, Deutsche Bank Markets Research continues to favor global equities (mainly DM), a strong USD as well as investment grade credit and short durations in Fixed Income (Europe is more preferable than the US). Therefore, Deutsche Bank Markets Research expects equity products particularly in developed markets to continue attracting most of the flows. Certain type of Fixed Income products and currency hedge products should continue to remain relevant during 2016, although less than in 2015; while smart beta products should raise strong support as investors seek to control risk in a more specific way in the current year.

ETP trading activity up 16.8% in 2015 reaching US$ 21.8 trillion and will continue to rise

Trading activity picked up in 2015 again with ETP turnover levels registering a rise of 16.8% over 2014. Overall turnover levels in 2015, 2014 and 2013 were US$ 21.8 trillion, US$ 18.7 trillion and US$ 16.5 trillion, respectively. In 2015, Asian ETFs recorded the highest increase of over 100% in trading volumes (US$ 1.9 trillion), significantly surpassing European on-exchange volumes (US$ 903 billion, up 22.9%). US ETFs continue to dominate the global ETP trading activity (US$ 18.8 trillion, up 12.1%). Deutsche Bank Markets Research expects to see ETP trading activity to further increase in 2016 due to wider adoption of ETFs, elevated market volatility, and more product offerings.

ETF markets to continue forward on strong organic growth

In the US, the organic growth gap between ETFs and mutual funds, and passive and active management continued to widen reaching levels of about US$ 250 billion and US$ 500 billion through the end of November 2015, respectively. In the meantime, Deutsche Bank Markets Research believes that there is still room for new entrants and new products despite the record activity registered during 2015; however, Deutsche Bank Markets Research believes that smart beta ETFs and clear distribution access should be key to the success of new ETF ventures. Furthermore, it also believes there is abundant room for organic growth in the range of US$ 500 billion to US$ 1 trillion over the next 5 to 10 years just from migration away from less efficient vehicles and penetration to the retirement market.

In Europe, smart beta products expected to be in demand as market uncertainty remains and investment landscape evolves. Also, currency hedged ETFs to be utilized to invest with reduced currency risks. Despite poor start to equity markets, ETFs tracking European equities anticipated to have a reasonable year. In addition, absolute ETF trading volumes expected to increase despite concerns on overall equity volumes.

In Asia-Pac, Japan, China and South Korea were the key domestic markets which drove the industry in 2015. Most of the AUM growth and inflows of the region were contributed by Japan listed ETFs, while China listed equity ETFs saw heavy redemptions offset by money market ETFs receiving notable inflows. Trading activity also rose in the region in 2015, primarily in China, Hong Kong and Japan. South Korea saw most number of ETF launches along with many new development plans announced by its Financial Services Commission to boost ETF market in South Korea. Deutsche Bank Markets Research expects Japan (with increased equity allocation from GPIF and the ETF purchase from Bank of Japan), China (stronger asset growth as market stabilizes and increased product adoption) and South Korea (with new developments being implemented) to be major growth drivers in Asia-Pac region in 2016.

Mario Draghi, The Italian Banking Sector, and Oil; Main concerns for Fixed Income at Pioneer

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During last week, the three things that Pioneer’s European Investment-Grade Fixed Income Team talked about where:

1. ECB – “No Surrender”
Bravissimo Mario! After a lacklustre performance at the December 2015 European Central Bank (ECB) press conference, ECB President Mario Draghi was back to his best at this week’s ECB press conference. In a virtuoso performance Draghi signalled that it will be “necessary to review and possibly reconsider in March” the ECB’s current stance, given that the expected path of inflation in 2016 is “significantly lower than the path in December”. To be fair, that was always expected, given the ongoing precipitous fall in the oil price over that period. But Draghi didn’t stop there, giving us other soundbites such as the “risks of second-round effects should be monitored closely” and the emphasis that there are “no limits” to the measures that the ECB will undertake to ensure that it meets its inflation target of “close to, but below 2%”. That comment about “risks of second-round effects” is as close as we will probably get to the ECB admitting that ongoing low levels of inflation is now impacting the general economy – the famous “unanchoring of inflation expectations” that the ECB fears so much. The second comment suggests that all options will be on the table at the March meeting, despite the minutes of the December 2015 showing a distinct preference for a deposit rate cut. Finally, President Draghi noted that the line of communication adopted today was “agreed unanimously” by the Governing Council, suggesting that their bar to further action is very low. At this stage, we believe that another 10bps cut in the deposit rate to -0.30% is likely, with other options such as an increase in the monthly pace of bond purchases, an extension of bond purchases beyond March 2017, and the loosening of current restrictions on bond purchases all open for discussion.

2. Italian Banking Sector – Reality Bites
Media leaks last Monday (January 18th) suggesting that the ECB’s central oversight arm, the Single Supervisory Mechanism, was scrutinising the non-performing loans (NPL’s) and bad debts Italian banking system truly put the cat amongst the proverbial pigeons. While this news does not come as a surprise, the market became concerned that further provisioning may be required for the weaker Italian financial institutions, which would place additional pressure on solvency levels. At the same time, progress on the Italian bad bank appeared to have stalled, with a solution to comply with European Commissions State Aid rules proving elusive. The market reaction was swift and brutal, with both equity and bond prices plummeting. The subordinated bonds of the weaker Italian banks have been under significant pressure since the start of the year and are trading at around 75c per €1 face value. At Thursday’s press conference, ECB President Draghi confirmed that the ECB is not about to force higher provisions or capital raises on peripheral banks as part of its latest NPL exercise. Rather the focus is on improving processes and strategies around the resolution of NPLs across Europe (with the recent NPL information requests sent to a broad range of banks across the region, not just to Italian institutions). Further reports emerged that the creation of a bad bank may be agreed between the Italian government and European Commission over the coming weeks . Finer details remain light, but these reports were enough to drive a rebound in Italian bank spreads on Friday. While a step in the right direction, the Italian banks do not currently have sufficient capital or provisioning to transfer NPLs at market prices to a potential new asset management vehicle. This solution is unlikely to be the panacea to the sector’s problems, but will be welcomed nevertheless and hopefully help to kick-start sales in the NPL market. We have a cautious outlook on the Italian banking sector, and still prefer to sell into strength.

3. Oil is in a Bull Market 
Not the headline you might expect to see after the last couple of months, but technically it could be correct if the recent bounce in the oil price continues. The standard definition of a bull (bear) market is a 20% rise (fall) in the price of an asset. The oil price has appreciated by almost 18% from its intraday lows of last week to Monday morning. What is also interesting is the effect this has had on markets – it has been the main driver of a classic “risk-on, risk-off” sentiment. So as the oil price has risen in the past couple of days, we’ve seen equities recover, core bond yields rise, peripheral bond spreads tighten, the U.S. Dollar has appreciated against the Euro and the Japanese Yen and credit spreads globally have tightened. In turn, that backs up the view of the European Investment-Grade Fixed Income team that much of the price action in the first three weeks of the year is a response to the movements in the oil price, and not a reflection of changing economic fundamentals.

El venture capital marca nuevo récord en 2015

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Aggregate Venture Capital Deal Value Hits Record High in 2015

Foto: AJ Cann . El venture capital marca nuevo récord en 2015

En 2015 el valor agregado de las operaciones de venture capital creció por tercer año consecutivo, hasta situarse en 135.800 millones de dólares, frente a 93.500 millones de 2014 y más que duplicando los 57.100 de 2013. Aunque las 9.202 operaciones registradas en el año es una cifra similar a la de 2013 y 2014 (9.785 y 9.811 respectivamente), el tamaño medio de las operaciones creció hasta los 18,4 millones en 2015, desde 12,4 en 2014. Esto representa una caída del 6% en el número de operaciones en el último año, pero un aumento del 45% en su valor agregado, según publica Preqin en una nota.

Asia, en particular, ha visto un repunte significativo en la actividad, ya que China registró 1.605 operaciones, más que Europa, que se quedó en 1.373, mientras que la India registró 927 ofertas, casi el doble que en 2014, en que se registraron 512.

A pesar del sano entorno global, el significativo aumento en Asia lo tapó la disminución del resto del mundo. Europa registró 1.373 operaciones, en su segunda caída anual desde el máximo de 2.002 que registró en 2013 y el segundo menor número de operaciones desde 2010. Del mismo modo, aunque el valor agregado de las operaciones de América del Norte aumentó, el número de operaciones en la región cayó el 23%, pasando de 5.587 en 2014 a 4.307 en 2015. Aunque Preqin espera que estos totales aumenten a medida que se disponga de nuevos datos, la actividad de 2015 no parece que vaya a alcanzar los niveles observados en años anteriores.

Etapas, tamaños y salidas

La mayoría de las operaciones se produjeron en los primeros ciclo de vida de una empresa, con el 33% de las operaciones completadas en las fases previas al lanzamiento o etapa “semilla” y otro 26% en la etapa conocida como “serie A”;

El tamaño medio de las rondas de financiación se ha incrementado sustancialmente durante 2015. Las financiaciones de la Serie A crecieron un 34%, pasando 7,9 millones en 2014 a 10,6 este año, mientras que la financiación de la deuda pasó de media de 9,6 millones a 32,7. Las inversiones realizadas en la Serie D y posteriores suponen ahora una media de 94 millones.

La financiación en el mes de julio de Didi kuaidi fue, con 2.000 millones de dólares, la mayor operación de venture capital de 2015. De las 10 mayores operaciones del año, cinco tuvieron lugar en Asia y las otras cinco en Estados Unidos.

En general, las salidas se redujeron en 2015 por primera vez desde 2008, pasando de 1.138 en 2014 a 1.052 en 2015, y su valor total se redujo en un 41%, pasando de 125.100 millones a 73.300 millones.

«Ha sido otro gran año para el venture capital. De nuevo, Asia mostró un comportamiento fuerte durante todo el año y ha marcado un importante hito, ya que China ha superado el numero de operaciones de Europa por primera vez en la historia. Aunque América del Norte, especialmente California, sigue dominando la industria del venture capital, Asia está copando una parte mayor del mercado cada vez” dice Felice Egidio, jefe de productos de Venture Capital de Preqin.

“Las salidas han sido menores, tanto por número como por valor que en 2014. Un mercado difícil de salidas a bolsa ha hecho que los gestores e inversores fueran cautelosos, pero todavía se está generando mucho valor en las salidas de las empresas en cartera”, dice.

 

The Current Market Presents Unique Opportunities for Active Managers

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Reacting to the recent downturn in global equity markets, Francis Scotland of Brandywine Global, a Legg Mason affiliate, observed that there’s been a loss of confidence in the last month, which he attributed to a tightening global liquidity position; and capital coming out of financial assets worldwide. “We are in a correction that’s ongoing. I don’t expect it to be an extreme correction,” Mr. Scotland declared. “As a manager I like to use volatility to my advantage. I’m seeing compelling values come to the surface in U.S. stocks. The values tend to be in technology, financials, health care. A number of dividend growth stocks appear attractive. Quality-oriented stocks are doing better. That’s where the opportunities are.”

James Norman of QS Investors added that “people are re-evaluating where opportunities are. It’s hard to predict because a lot of it will be based on what investors believe. There’s going to be a lot of behavior involved in this. If people are nervous, markets will become more volatile. I think investors are nervous. We’ll have a lot of uneven economic data: some will surprise on the upside, some will surprise on the downside. It’s going to be very mixed. Going forward you need a diversified portfolio. Make sure you’re not exposed to too much of any individual economic risk or macro risk, whether oil prices, or China, or any of the things that China affects, and so on. That really is the best course of action. But it can go either way. If you look further out – three to five years – we think equities will be a very attractive place to be. However, it’s going to be a very bumpy ride over the next three to five years.”

Scott Glasser of ClearBridge Investments thinks the markets have retained many positives. “For stocks that are growing their earnings and giving capital back it is a fine environment,” he said. “We’re coming out of a period where we’ve had extremely low volatility, a function of a QE regime that had been in place for five plus years. Easy money and ultra low or zero interest rates promote a low volatility environment. We’re going back to normal and volatility will go back to at least normal. My expectation is to see higher volatility over the course of the next year… I don’t mind volatility,” he said. “From a client perspective it’s not fun to go through, but I think from a portfolio manager’s standpoint it actually gives us better ability to add value.”

In the fixed income arena, Michael Buchanan of Western Asset Management said, “We should continue to expect elevated fixed income volatility… One answer to what’s driving this increase in volatility is regulatory. Post-crisis, many firms – especially dealers and market makers – have been operating with a higher level of regulation, whether Volker Rule, Basel III, you name it. They’re operating defensively, with less inventory…the key point is that, especially given where valuations are now, you can take advantage of this opportunity. As much as it hurt in 2015, it’s likely to contribute to performance in 2016.”

“Global equity markets have really had quite a strong six years plus,” he said. “The things that had been very cheap six years ago have now gotten not cheap, and arguably maybe a little bit towards the upper end of normal. That’s sort of like a rubber band. When that rubber band is pulled tight, it’s much more sensitive to somebody pulling at it and vibrates a lot more… Three things we’re focusing on, that are going to drive a lot of the volatility but also a lot of opportunities because there’s a lot of dispersion, are: we are at fair valuations; investors are worried about growth going forward, but it’s going to be slow growth; and macro risks, since people are more sensitive to them when valuations are towards the higher end. Whether it’s China, oil, the U.S. Federal Reserve raising rates, people just become very concerned.”

“Because of that we’re seeing a lot of dispersion in individual country returns,” Norman said. “We’re also seeing a lot of dispersion in sector returns, so there are very large differences… All markets will see a high correlation but a very different magnitude of return,” he said.

In regards to China, Scotland mentioned “Philosophically, this is an economy where success has been measured by their ability to control the outcome. Moving forward, they really should be measured in terms of letting go.” Norman said. “China will be sort of a lumbering awkward teenager trying to figure it out. But at the end of the day, they will figure it out, because they have to. They’re also really a state-controlled economy and they will make it work – whatever it takes.”

When asked about oil, Buchanan said, “It’s tough to say near-term where oil is going… We strongly believe – and we think it’s a 2016 event – we’re going to print the bottom on oil, and that you will see a migration higher in terms of pricing… It’s just a matter of time before you start to see production come down in a meaningful way. At the same time, we do see demand continuing to grow. That supply-demand dynamic should go a ways towards addressing the imbalance.”
 

La Financière de l’Echiquier Opens a Subsidiary in Switzerland

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La Financière de l’Echiquier (LFDE) has been offering Swiss investors long-term savings solutions for more than 10 years. It currently manages EUR 250 million for a customer base in Switzerland of IFAs and private banks through a limited number of independent and conviction-driven active management funds (equities, fixed income and diversified). The company marks a new milestone in building long-term relations of proximity with Swiss customers. It has thus recently obtained the regulatory authorizations required to open its subsidiary that will be based in Geneva.

«This step opens up an important new chapter in our entrepreneurial development. I am proud and happy to be able to demonstrate by this strong measure our commitment to establishing a lasting presence in Switzerland based on direct contacts with investors», commented Didier Le Menestrel, Chairman of LFDE.

«After Italy and Germany, this new subsidiary highlights the strategic importance of the Swiss market in LFDE’s business development project. We believe that our value proposition is more than ever relevant for addressing the issues facing Swiss investors on an everyday basis. The presence of an office will allow us, in all humility, to better identify the needs of our customers and prospects in order to further improve the relevance of our solutions», added Dominique Carrel-Billiard, LFDE’s Chief Executive Officer.

Benjamin Canlorbe, who was appointed Country Manager Switzerland in September 2015, will manage the subsidiary. His mission will be to strengthen the brand’s local presence and develop assets under management in the French and German speaking areas of Switzerland.

For more than ten years, Benjamin Canlorbe has been developing LFDE’s presence in the segment of French wealth management advisors. With a Master’s degree in economics, Benjamin worked for three years for BNP Paribas’ Credit Risk department in the Netherlands and France. Joining LFDE in 2004, he was first tasked with monitoring and developing relations with wealth management advisors before becoming the customer relations manager for the independent financial planners’ segment.

Crédit Agricole Private Banking se transforma en Indosuez Wealth Management

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Crédit Agricole Private Banking Becomes Indosuez Wealth Management
Wikimedia CommonsFoto: Tangopaso . Crédit Agricole Private Banking se transforma en Indosuez Wealth Management

Crédit Agricole Private Banking, el brazo de gestión patrimonial de Crèdit Agricole, operará bajo la marca única Indosuez Wealth Management.

De acuerdo con un comunicado, la unificación de la marca, estrategia que empezó en 2012, tiene el objetivo de hacer llegar a todos sus clientes los valores de una entidad global, que cuenta con el respaldo de Crèdit Agricole como entidad financiera.

Jean-Yves Hocher, director general adjunto de Crédit Agricole, explica que «el negocio de Wealth Management está completamente en línea con el modelo de banca universal de Crèdit Agricole, centrado en el cliente». Por su parte, Christophe Gancel, director general de CA Indosuez Wealth, insistió en que «éste es un hito clave en el desarrollo de la empresa. Desde 2012 estamos comprometidos con una revisión importante de la organización con el fin de optimizar los recursos y mejorar nuestra oferta».

La oferta de la entidad se divide en tres áreas:

  • Structuring Wealth, para el negocio de gestión patrimonial de familias y empresas,
  • Investing Wealth, con soluciones de inversión en distintas clases de activos y
  • Banking and Beyond, más centrado en banca privada.

Hoy por hoy Indosuez Wealth Management tiene 30 oficinas en 14 países y activos bajo administración por 110.000 millones de euros.

It is Very Likely the US Will Not Raise Rates for a While

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According to Juan Nevado, Fund Manager at M&G, over the past weeks, negative sentiment triggered by China’s economic slowdown and continued declines in the oil price have driven a bear market across ‘risk’ assets such as equities and credit. «Investor pessimism has reached levels where some have begun to ask whether we are about to enter the next global recession. The M&G Multi Asset team’s base case at present is that, while there are very real risks in parts of emerging markets, this is unlikely to trigger a global recession. As such, we view markets movements in some areas at least as somewhat ‘episodic’ and are therefore watching carefully for potential opportunities to exploit,» Nevado says.

In summary, the team’s view is that:

  • Weighing the magnitude of the sell-off against the fundamental backdrop suggests to us that we are in an ‘episode’ in which market movements are being driven by fear, not facts. With valuations in some areas having been behaviourally driven to attractive levels, we believe this could present a chance to exploit compelling opportunities across selected risk assets. When it feels most uncomfortable to be buying assets is exactly the point at which we should be, one of the strongest indicators to us that we are in an Episode is that is feels so emotionally challenging to take it on.
  • Fundamentals in developed economies are strong enough that we have conviction that the West is not entering recession.
  • Areas such as Europe and Japan have been growing, but slowing a little and missing inflation targets. Therefore, we think policymakers in these areas are likely to be inclined towards further easing. We also think it’s plausible that the Federal Reserve will not seek to continue raising US interest rates in this environment, echoing the Bank of England’s statement this week that it will not raise rates for now. So central bankers are likely to remain in supportive stance.
  • There are genuine risks in China and other Asian/emerging markets to worry about.
  • However, even if Asia continues to weaken, we are unlikely to see a contagion effect developing into a global recession. A slowdown in China will not have the same impact at the aggregate global level as a similar slowdown in a major developed economy would.
  • The collapse in the oil price is partly fundamentally driven because OPEC are operating at maximum output. We still believe the boost this provides to consumers, businesses and oil-importing countries should be a net positive for the global economy.
  • Those predicting these two factors (Chinese slowdown and the oil price) will trigger a global recession need to provide better evidence and explanation of how this would happen to persuade us that they are right.
  • We do not believe there is much evidence for this. It is sentiment, not facts, driving the market sell-off. Investors are overly fearful, partly because the memory of 2008 still lingers, and when investors are in pessimistic mood, they will seek the negatives and ignore the positives in any situation.
  • In this context, when we see valuations cheapen so significantly in a relatively short period of time (six weeks in this case, perhaps not as clearly ‘episodic’ as August 2015 in terms of the speed, but certainly in terms of the magnitude) we start to look for opportunities to exploit.
  • With valuation as our guide, we are not forecasting the future, we are simply aiming to put the odds in our favour. The risk premium on growth assets has skyrocketed since November 2015 and this suggests to us potential opportunities on which to position for the most attractive prospective returns.

Robert Senz, New Head of Fixed Income at Erste Asset Management

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From February 2016, Robert Senz will be the new Head of the 20-strong cross-border Fixed Income team of Erste Asset Management. He will report directly to Gerold Permoser, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of EAM. The current Head, Alexander Fleischer, will take an educational leave at his own request.

Robert Senz has more than 25 years of experience in the fixed income area as well as a successful professional track record for example as Chief Investment Officer for bonds with Raiffeisen Capital Management. Gerold Permoser said «with Robert Senz we ensure the continuity of our successful active investment approach. Mr Senz has years of experience, he has received numerous awards, and is highly client-oriented. This will help us strengthen and further expand the already high degree of acceptance displayed by our clients and sales partners.”

“I am very much looking forward to this task, and I am convinced that I will continue the successful path together with the team of Erste Asset Management,” Rober Senz, concluded.

Pioneer Investments alcanza un récord de más de 15.000 millones de euros en ventas netas en 2015

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Pioneer Investments Posts Strong 2015
Foto: Giordano Lombardo, CEO and Group CIO of Pioneer Investments. Pioneer Investments alcanza un récord de más de 15.000 millones de euros en ventas netas en 2015

Pioneer Investments alcanzó en 2015 un récord de flujos de entrada de 15.200 millones de euros globalmente. Las ventas netas crecieron un 15% en tasa interanual y los activos bajo gestión se situaron en 224.000 millones de euros a finales de diciembre de 2015, una subida del 11% respecto a diciembre del año anterior, reflejando un impulso positivo a lo largo de todas las unidades de negocio. Pioneer Investments ha visto un crecimiento importante en Italia y Alemania, así como un impulso positivo en Asia y Latinoamérica.

De acuerdo a los datos de los flujos de fondos de Morningstar, la firma ocuparía la cuarta posición con sus estrategias multiactivo y la octava en el segmento de fondos alternativos a nivel global, gracias a las importantes entradas en las estrategias multi-activo e inversiones alternativas líquidas de Pioneer Investments. Estas clases de activo en crecimiento, complementan la gama de producto de renta fija y renta variable de Pioneer Investments, que han seguido contribuyendo a los resultados de la compañía en 2015.

“Es gratificante ver la continua confianza que nuestros clientes han depositado en nosotros. En el actual entorno de mercado caracterizado por la volatilidad, las condiciones de liquidez, las preocupaciones macro, la eficacia de las políticas monetarias, la visión para China y la trayectoria de las economías de los mercados emergentes, nosotros seguimos manteniendo un claro enfoque en la gestión”, afirmó Giordano Lombardo, consejero delegado y director de Inversiones del Grupo de Pioneer Investments.

“Seguimos comprometidos con la preservación del capital de nuestros clientes bajo nuestro enfoque de inversión testado eficazmente, con un exhaustivo sistema de gestión del riesgo que permite identificar oportunidades durante los períodos de debilidad del mercado, invirtiendo con un horizonte de largo plazo para nuestros clientes”, añadió.

A pesar de un escenario de bajos retornos y rentabilidades inferiores de las clases de activo tradicionales, Pioneer Investments ha continuado reforzando su gama de producto, ofreciendo soluciones de inversión innovadoras para sus clientes. Por ejemplo, la gama “Target Income” de Pioneer Investments, ha sido diseñada para facilitar a los inversores una renta, ha logrado atraer más de 10 mil millones de euros en menos de cuatro años desde su lanzamiento. En Renta Variable, las estrategias US Fundamental Growth y European Potenial, han sido también unas de las que más entradas han atraído. Por el lado de la Renta Fija, Pioneer Investments ha lanzado en 2015 una estrategia de bonos globales en función del peso del PIB mundial y una de Renta Fija Emergente a corto plazo.