High Net Worth Individuals Optimistic about China Market

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Pekín y la Fed: "Yo te tengo, tú me tienes"
La Fed está entre la espada y la pared, según SYZ AM. Foto: AndyCastro, Flickr, Creative Commons. Pekín y la Fed: "Yo te tengo, tú me tienes"

In a landmark research collaboration, Julius Baer and Bank of China Limited have jointly launched the 2014 annual report on wealth trends in Asia. The report finds domestic investors, High Net Worth Individuals (HNWI) in China have a positive stance on risky assets and are turning increasingly to private banks to meet their financial service needs.

This year’s Julius Baer – Bank of China Wealth Report: Asia provides a focused China Lifestyle Index of 12 mainland China cities. The report also examines pivotal shifts in the world’s second largest economy and how HNWI in China see private banking as well as the education for their next generation.

Shumin Zhu, Executive Vice President of Bank of China Limited commented: “Internationalization of the renminbi is a key element in China’s wider economic reform process and Bank of China is at the forefront of this development. As a bank, we are committed to contributing to supporting China’s businesses and entrepreneurs, who strive to further develop the country’s economy and contribute to the China Dream. We are very pleased to cooperate with Julius Baer in producing this landmark report. The findings confirmed that our clients, many of whom are entrepreneurs, are confident about the future of the Chinese economy and investment environment. As the leading wealth manager in China, sharing expertise with Julius Baer as new opportunities emerge in global private banking, is an exciting proposition for Bank of China.”

Boris F.J. Collardi, Chief Executive Officer of Julius Baer Group Ltd, said: “Our strategic partnership with Bank of China comes as the economies in the region are becoming increasingly synchronised and financially integrated. It is clear to us that the combination of these factors, together with the internationalisation of the renminbi, Asia’s growth drivers are evolving rapidly. These are important issues, and our partnership with Bank of China places Julius Baer in a prime, unique and privileged position to engage with our international clients on these matters.”

The Julius Baer – Bank of China Wealth Report: Asia features a unique survey of a representative sample of Bank of China’s onshore private banking clients across the nation. On the forefront of China’s economic transition, Bank of China’s private banking client base represents mostly entrepreneurs who cherish the services that Bank of China offers.

Internationalization is a key theme that echoes throughout the report. Be it from the perspective of High Net Worth Individuals (HNWI) as parents or investors, respondents to the surveys on private banking service and education planning for their next generation expressed clear interests in broadening horizons. This parallels with the joint Julius Baer and Bank of China stance on what is happening in China’s economy and broader policy making arena today.

Macro landscape

Among the key highlights of the 2014 Julius Baer – Bank of China Wealth Report: Asia, worries over ‘hard landings’ in China are unfounded, as these ignore the important progress already made in the context of evolving the economic model. Also, the Bank of China proprietary Cross-Border RMB Index (CRI) points to the continual internationalisation of the currency, echoing the shared view that reserve currency status is attainable in the medium term. 


Private banking clients in China

In a landmark research enterprise, Bank of China has surveyed over 200 of its private banking clients in 30 branches across the country. The face-to-face interviews took place in mid-June 2014, gauging client preferences with regard to private banking products and services and their outlook on financial markets.

Structured products that offer capital protection remain the preferred investment vehicle, but foreign exchange-linked products, bonds and overseas equities were listed as being of interest over the coming 12 months.

In terms of cross-border investing, the top two interests over the next 12 months are to invest overseas financially (44%) and buy properties (40%). In terms of investment destination, the United States and Canada (61%) took the top spot, followed by Hong Kong (34%), Australia (21%), continental Europe (15%) and the United Kingdom (11%) tying with Singapore (11%) in fifth place.

The preferred long-term investment is real estate (53%). In terms of gold, survey respondents see the longer term value of holding gold (35%) in their portfolios, but have limited return expectations in the shorter term. Equities (14%) ranked last as a ‘long-term investment’.

The Julius Baer – Bank of China Lifestyle Index

2014 marks the launch of the Julius Baer – Bank of China Lifestyle Index, covering the cost of luxury goods and services as relevant to HNWI entrepreneurs across China. The data will be collected on an annual basis, in tandem with the enhanced Julius Baer Lifestyle Index.

There are twelve cities grouped into four regions. Bohai Economic Rim (Beijing, Tianjin, Dalian), Yangtze River Delta Zone (Nanjing, Shanghai, Wuxi), Pearl River Delta Zone (Guangzhou, Jiangmen, Huizhou) and the Western China Emerging Zone (Chongqing, Chengdu, Xian).

The items covered are: business registration fees, dental implants, first class domestic air travel, golf club memberships, hospital, hotel suites, luxury property and wedding banquets.

The highest average costs are found in the Bohai Economic Rim, with a significant gap between Beijing and the other two member cities (Tainjin and Dalian). The lowest costs can be found in the Western China Emerging Zone – as well as the gaps between the three cities (Chongqing, Chengdu and Xian) are the smallest. 
Investing in future generations

Within the Julius Baer Lifestyle Index, the education-related components (university tuition and boarding school fees) have shown the most consistent increases, double-digit increases since 2011. Taking this as a starting point, Julius Baer commissioned a survey of over affluent 800 parents across Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Mumbai and Singapore, to ascertain their attitudes, preferences and expectations in terms of investing for their children’s futures.

Parents in Beijing and Shanghai (98%) have the highest expectations that their children will achieve advanced degrees (Bachelor degree or above).

Singapore (64%) stands out for the strongest preference for local universities. Parents in China (66%) have the clearest preference for overseas education, in particular the United States and United Kingdom. Interestingly, this echoes the results of the Bank of China private banking survey in terms of desired overseas investment destinations.

Parents in Mumbai (91%), Beijing and Shanghai (88%) have the strongest expectation that 
their children will enjoy higher incomes than themselves.

In terms of generational transfers, parents in Beijing and Shanghai (62%) feel that passing on 
personal values to their children is simultaneously the most important and challenging aspect of being an affluent household. By contrast, for parents in Mumbai (39%), the most important qualitative aspect of generational transfer cited was ‘skill’. 
Thomas R. Meier, Region Head Asia Pacific of Julius Baer said: “Julius Baer and Bank of China have been working together to promote the exchange of wealth management experience and knowledge, as well as to enhance the understanding and confidence in the strong fundamentals of the Chinese economy and investment space for our international clientele.”

Active and Passive U.S. Equity Fund Flows Continued to Move in Opposite Directions in October

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Morningstar has reported estimated U.S. mutual fund and exchange-traded fund (ETF) asset flows for September 2014. Long-term mutual funds and ETFs attracted $9.0 billion of new investor cash during the month.

Active taxable-bond funds registered their most significant monthly outflow since June 2013, $18.7 billion, spurred by the Sept. 26, 2014 announcement of Bill Gross’ departure from PIMCO. Outflows from PIMCO Total Return aside, taxable-bond funds have otherwise seen relatively consistent inflows year to date.

Active and passive U.S. equity fund flows continued to move in opposite directions—active U.S. equity funds saw outflows for the seventh consecutive month, and passive U.S. equity funds collected inflows for the eighth consecutive month.

Among passive funds, all categories except commodities funds saw inflows in September, most notably U.S. and international-equity offerings. Total passive flows were larger than total active flows for the seventh straight month.

The three active funds with the heaviest outflows during the month were PIMCO funds formerly managed by Bill Gross, which lost a little more than $23.3 billion. Two intermediate-term bond funds that appeared to be reaping the benefits of investors seeking alternatives to PIMCO include Metropolitan West Total Return Bond, which has a Morningstar Analyst Rating™ of Gold, and unrated Fidelity® Series Investment Grade Bond. On the passive side, Vanguard Total Bond Market Index also collected large sums of fixed-income-oriented money.

Changes for several U.S. funds

Morningstar has also announced Morningstar Analyst Rating changes for several U.S. funds. In the six weeks since the end of August, Morningstar analysts upgraded one U.S. fund rating and downgraded three fund ratings, including PIMCO Total Return. On Sept. 26, Morningstar placed all 39 analyst-rated PIMCO funds Under Review following the departure from the firm of Bill Gross, founder, managing director, and chief investment officer. As of Oct. 10, Morningstar analysts had reaffirmed, upgraded, or downgraded Analyst Ratings for 10 PIMCO funds. Morningstar will continue to review Analyst Ratings for PIMCO funds as part of an ongoing assessment of Gross’ departure based on the Morningstar Analyst Rating methodology.

Morningstar reaffirmed Analyst Ratings for the following PIMCO funds as of Oct. 10:

  • PIMCO All Asset, reaffirmed Analyst Rating of Gold
  • PIMCO All Asset All Authority, reaffirmed Analyst Rating of Silver
  • PIMCO EqS® Long/Short, reaffirmed Analyst Rating of Neutral
  • PIMCO Income A, reaffirmed Analyst Rating of Silver
  • PIMCO Municipal Income II, reaffirmed Analyst Rating of Neutral

Morningstar upgraded the following PIMCO fund as of Oct. 10:

  • PIMCO Municipal Bond, upgraded to Bronze from Neutral

Morningstar downgraded the following PIMCO funds as of Oct. 10:

  • PIMCO Corporate & Income Opportunities, downgraded to Neutral from Bronze
  • PIMCO Emerging Local Bond, downgraded to Silver from Gold
  • PIMCO Emerging Markets Bond A, downgraded to Silver from Gold
  • PIMCO Total Return, downgraded to Bronze from Gold

As of Sept. 30, 2014, 138 U.S. funds had a Morningstar Analyst Rating of Gold, 285 funds had a Silver rating, 325 funds were rated Bronze, 330 funds had a Neutral rating, and 40 funds were rated Negative. Approximately 10 percent of mutual funds available for sale in the United States are currently Morningstar Medalists. Morningstar’s manager research team covers about $8 trillion of U.S. investor assets, which is equivalent to approximately 70 percent of total investor assets in the United States.

Aside from Analyst Rating changes for PIMCO funds, Morningstar changed Analyst Ratings for the following U.S. mutual funds in September:

  • Franklin Flex Cap Growth, downgraded to Neutral from Bronze
  • Invesco International Growth, upgraded to Silver from Bronze
  • TFS Market Neutral, downgraded to Silver from Gold

Fidelity Investments Names Abigail Johnson as CEO

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Fidelity Investments named Abigail Johnson chief executive of the financial services company, the third CEO of the company founded by her grandfather.

Johnson, 52, is replacing her father, 84-year-old Edward Johnson, who has been CEO of Fidelity since 1977. He will stay on as chairman of the company’s board.

The changes were announced Monday in a memo to Fidelity shareholders.

Fidelity in one of the world’s biggest investors, managing 401(k)s and other retirement and investment accounts for 23 million people, according to the company’s website. Its 401(k) plans are used by 193 of Fortune 500 companies. At the end of last year, it was managing 566 mutual funds. The company has $2 trillion assets under management.

Abigail Johnson has worked at the Boston company since 1988, starting out as a stock analyst. Most recently she was president of Fidelity’s retail, workplace and institutional businesses. She is among the nation’s wealthiest women, worth an estimated $12.3 billion, according to Forbes.

Johnson takes over Fidelity at a challenging time for the fund giant. Investors are increasingly turning to low-cost index funds, a specialty of rival Vanguard Group. And Fidelity has been playing catch-up in another low-cost option popular with investors, exchange-traded funds, which can be bought and sold during the day.

Riskmathics le invita en México al lanzamiento de un nuevo libro sobre capital privado

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Riskmathics le invita en México al lanzamiento de un nuevo libro sobre capital privado
Foto: Luis Miguel Bugallo Sánchez . Riskmathics le invita en México al lanzamiento de un nuevo libro sobre capital privado

¿Qué es un fondo de búsqueda? ¿Por qué es una mejor alternativa que un fondo de capital privado? ¿Qué papel juega el search fund dentro del ecosistema emprendedor? ¿Por qué empieza a haber tanta actividad de fondos de búsqueda en México?

Riskmathics le invita el próximo miércoles 22 de octubre a la presentación del nuevo libro sobre capital privado ¿Cómo comprar una empresa exitosa?, en una ceremonia que tendrá lugar en la sede de la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores (BMV).

Durante la presentación del libro se abordarán éste y otros temas relacionados con el libro de la mano de Raúl Felíz, profesor e investigador del CIDE, que moderará una mesa redonda, en la que participarán Pedro Zorrilla, director adjunto de la BMV y los coautores del libro.

La mesa redonda llevará por título: “Emprender a través de adquisiciones. El papel del search fund en el ecosistema emprendedor”. Además de la presentación y mesa redonda habrá un coctel, así como firma de ejemplares.

Si quiere más información o registrarse para acudir al evento puede hacerlo siguiendo este enlace.

Pierre Schoeffler Joins La Française
 as Senior Global Asset Allocation Advisor

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Following the group’s initiative to organise its activities around four core business lines, La Française appoints Pierre Schoeffler as «Senior Global Asset Allocation Advisor», a role that will cover all asset classes managed by the group. The Group’s strength and originality lies in its wide-range of expertise, as well as its coherent approach to asset allocation.

Xavier Lépine, Chairman of the Board of La Française said, «Pierre’s experience, advice and quantitative tools will help reinforce our strategic overview in terms of allocation through a quantitative approach to the various asset classes. Our strength lies in the diversity and originality of our solutions and approaches, and our ambition is to optimise their combination by drawing on Pierre’s vision as a portfolio strategist. In the current low rate environment, our aim is to help our clients manage this challenge by providing them with a comprehensive service and a 360 degree view of Asset Allocation by including all asset classes from real estate to bonds, and equities to hedge funds».

Pierre Schoeffler is Chairman of S&Partners and a Senior Advisor at IEIF.

Pierre Schoeffler is an engineer with degrees from Ecole Polytechnique and the Ecole Nationale de la Météorologie. He began his career as a fluid mechanics researcher before being appointed as a portfolio strategist at Crédit Commercial de France. He was then appointed head of Asset-Liability Management at the bank, and became head of the Economic and Equity Research Department. In 1990, he left the CCF to open the Paris branch of the Swedish bank Svenska Handelsbanken and launch its investment banking business in France. In 2004, he left Svenska Handelsbanken to found S&Partners, a financial and alternative (including real estate) asset allocation strategy consulting company.

EFAMA Hires Gabriela Diezhandino to Head its New Public Policy Department

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The European Fund and Asset Management Association (EFAMA) has hired Gabriela Diezhandino, the former Head of Public Affairs for Insurance Europe, to head its newly created Public Policy Department.

The new departmentwill work closely alongside EFAMA’s other two specialist divisions – Economics and Research, directed by Bernard Delbecque and Regulatory Policy, directed by Vincent Ingham. Its primary focus will be on engaging in a constructive dialogue with policy and decision makers to promote EFAMA’s legislative agenda and the views of its members.

This development reflects EFAMA’s commitment to proactive engagement with new and existing political stakeholders through transparent dialogue, and to ensure the industry continues to be represented effectively on the European and international political stage.

As Director of Public Policy, Gabriela will take responsibility for strengthening political and public support for EFAMA’s issues and priorities, ensuring that the industry retains a strong voice and positive representation. Gabriela will also be responsible for developing the best possible political framework within which EFAMA’s members operate, working in collaboration with EFAMA’s Director General, the other two Directors, EFAMA members and industry representatives to identify, pinpoint and develop industry priorities and policies.

A 14-year Brussels and EU affairs veteran, Gabriela joins EFAMA from Insurance Europe, where she was Head of Public Affairs for seven years, responsible for devising and implementing the policy communication and engagement strategies, and promoting the policy messages of the association.

Peter De Proft, Director General of EFAMA, said:“We are delighted to welcome Gabriela to the EFAMA team. The creation of this new role is proof positive of our commitment to engaging constructively with law-makers, and is a particularly important and strategic move for us in the context of the newly elected European Commission and Parliament. Moreover, we needed someone with a strong track record on-the-ground in Brussels allied to an in-depth knowledge of the international financial services industry, and the issues that EFAMA will be engaging with.

“We now enter a new and important phase of political engagement and representation for our industry, and Gabriela will play a key role in making sure that we meet our stated intention to provide leadership and play an enhanced collaborative role with legislators and regulators. We have no doubt Gabriela will prove a worthy addition to our team.”

Fortune International es reconocida en EE.UU. como la Firma de Real Estate del Año

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Fortune International es reconocida en EE.UU. como la Firma de Real Estate del Año
De izquierda a derecha Carla Defortuna, Eric Montes de Oca, Walter Defortuna, Alex Lastra y Daniel Guerra. Fortune International es reconocida en EE.UU. como la Firma de Real Estate del Año

The Latin Builders Association (LBA) ha reconocido a Fortune International Realty como la “Firma del Año de Real Estate” de Estados Unidos, destacando también el trabajo de la compañía inmobiliaria en nombre de LBA, informó Fortune.

Tras recibir el galardón, el presidente de Fortune International, Walter Defortuna, dijo estar muy orgulloso de la labor y los logros de la empresa tras tres décadas de representar a la clientela internacional en el Sur de Florida. Asimismo, manifestó su interés por continuar trabajando para seguir contribuyendo a la transformación del mercado de real estate del Sur de Florida y reconoció que el tributo es un reconocimiento a los agentes, empleados, clientes y socios de la firma.

El gobernador de Florida, Rick Scott, presidió la comida y ceremonia ante un nutrido grupo de profesionales y expertos del sector hace unos días en Miami. El premio a la Firma del Año fue recogido por Walter Defortuna y Carla Defortuna, vicepresidenta de Ventas y Marketing.

Fortune International Realty fue fundado en 1983. Desde entonces, la compañía ha ampliado sus actividades a corretaje, gestión de propiedades, financiación, ventas de nuevos desarrollos y desarrollos propios. Durante más de tres décadas, Fortune International Realty ha estado al frente de la transformación inmobiliaria del Sur de Florida.

La firma cuenta con 19 oficinas y 800 agentes. Por su parte, LAB, establecida en 1971, es la mayor asociación hispana de construcción.

Blackstone to Spin Off Financial Advisory Business

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Blackstone has announced that its Board of Directors has approved a plan to spin off its financial and strategic advisory services, restructuring and reorganization advisory services, and its Park Hill fund placement businesses and combine these businesses with PJT Partners, an independent financial advisory firm founded by Paul J. Taubman. The parties expect the transaction to close in 2015.

The new entity will be an independent, publicly traded company, which will be led by Mr. Taubman, 53, as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Prior to founding PJT Partners, Mr. Taubman spent 30 years at Morgan Stanley where he served as Co-President of the Institutional Securities Group. Prior to becoming Co-President, he was the Head of Global Investment Banking and Head of its Global Mergers and Acquisitions Department. Since leaving Morgan Stanley, Mr. Taubman, acting independently, has advised corporate clients on some of the largest M&A transactions in recent years and began building an elite team of senior bankers to form PJT Partners.

Upon completion of the spin-off, Blackstone’s current unitholders will initially own approximately 65% of the new entity. Blackstone’s advisory employees will roll their Blackstone units into the new company and, combined with Mr. Taubman and his partners, will initially own approximately 35% of the company. Mr. Taubman will serve as Chairman of the Board of Directors of the new company, which will also include four independent directors.

Stephen A. Schwarzman, Blackstone’s Chairman, CEO and Co-Founder, commenting on the announcement, said, “Blackstone began as an advisory firm nearly 30 years ago. The decision to spin off these businesses is possible because of our success in growing them over the past 30 years. As the largest alternative asset manager in the world, and with our investing areas considerably broader and larger than even a few years ago, we have not been free to aggressively grow our advisory businesses further out of concern for potential conflicts. The separation of our investing and advisory areas will create new growth opportunities for both businesses.”

Mr. Schwarzman continued, “Paul is one of the preeminent investment bankers in the world. He has had an impressive career over three decades as a strategic advisor to Fortune 500 corporations and as a senior Wall Street executive at one of the most respected financial institutions. With this experience, along with his recent success founding and growing an independent financial advisory business and his proven ability to attract top talent to his new firm, I am confident that Paul will help create the best advisory business on the Street. And, while we will truly miss the daily interaction with our advisory colleagues, we look forward to working with them as clients in the future.”

Added Mr. Taubman, “This is a unique opportunity to combine the legacy, scale and scope of a well-established business while capturing the entrepreneurial energy of a new firm to better serve clients. Further, by eliminating the potential conflicts that existed as part of the world’s largest alternative asset manager, these three businesses will now be positioned for significant growth. The new enterprise will include the leading restructuring franchise on the Street, a market-leading fund placement business and a strategically important advisory practice. By combining resources, we have an opportunity to establish a new leader in the advisory space and the premier destination for talent.”

Excluding capital markets revenues attributable to Blackstone’s Financial Advisory segment that will not be part of the transaction, Blackstone’s advisory businesses generated approximately $380 million of revenue for the twelve months ending June 30, 2014.

The transaction is intended to be tax-free to Blackstone and Blackstone’s unitholders. The completion of the transaction is subject to the satisfaction or waiver of certain customary closing conditions, including the effectiveness of a registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the receipt by Blackstone of an opinion from its tax counsel as to the tax-free nature of the transaction and certain regulatory approvals. The transaction will not be subject to a vote of Blackstone’s common unitholders. There can be no assurance that the transaction will ultimately be consummated, or, as to its timing in the event the transaction is consummated.

Simpson Thacher & Bartlett LLP is acting as legal counsel to Blackstone in this transaction. Weil, Gotshal & Manges LLP is acting as legal counsel to PJT Partners.

What the Fund?

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What the Fund?
Foto: Mattbuck. What the Fund?

Los proyectos más desafiantes que han llegado a mi escritorio este año han tenido que ver con la domiciliación de fondos emergentes y offshore y buscar los socios custodios en las jurisdicciones de confianza para las operaciones diarias de los fondos. Puede parecer una tarea fácil, pero la mayoría de los bancos en Estados Unidos, Reino Unido o Irlanda no recibirán con mucha sonrisa su portfolio de renta fija argentina o su fondo BVI small cap como le gustaría.

Comencé el año trabajando con varios fondos de inversión de LatAm que necesitaban un banco custodio o un agente, tareas que podrían realizarse fácilmente en 30 días para cualquier fondo estructurado en Estados Unidos, Reino Unido o Irlanda.

Pero ¿por qué los custodios son tan cautelosos ante cualquier jurisdicción que no se encuentre en el top 10 de los centros financieros globales? Es cierto que los nuevos cambios regulatorios en todo el mundo están jugando un papel importante para que los bancos sean más selectivos respecto a los clientes a los que quieren dar servicio. Después de trabajar directamente con los bancos en el proceso de selección y de incorporación, he aprendido que en este caso el mayor problema es el miedo a lo desconocido. Los custodios y trust bankers simplemente no son plenamente conscientes de las reglas, regulaciones y restricciones que gobiernan a los fondos domiciliados en mercados emergentes y otras jurisdicciones offshore.

Como fund manager o líder de su empresa de inversión, su trabajo es educarlos. Éstos son algunos temas para romper el hielo que discuto con los bancos custodios cuando hablo de mis clientes:

Hablar el mismo idioma

Si está hablando con un banco fuera de su jurisdicción, aprenda los términos, reglas y regulaciones de la jurisdicción que va a hacer la custodia. Asegúrese de que su banquero sabe cuáles son sus necesidades, identificándolas con claridad. Una cuenta de custodia, por ejemplo, podría no tener las mismas funcionalidades en Reino Unido que en Estados Unidos.

Explique su estrategia de inversión y su potencial de crecimiento

La banca de custodia está basada en fees, por lo que cualquier banquero estará más inclinado a ayudarle si se puede determinar fácilmente el número de activos que van a custodia, el número de operaciones anuales a ejecutar y los riesgos involucrados en la estrategia de inversión.

Dibuje un mapa de jurisdicción

Usted no puede asumir que los bancos son plenamente conscientes de cómo se regulan los bancos en Uruguay, o de las reglas y restricciones que enfrentan los agentes de bolsa en Argentina, o los requisitos de información para un fondo en Nueva Zelanda. Al igual que un plan de negocios, usted debe explicar por escrito las reglas y regulaciones sobre las que usted está supervisado, las similitudes entre su jurisdicción y un centro de inversión mayor, los riesgos y las recompensas de trabajar con un cliente de su jurisdicción. Y lo más importante es decirle al banco por qué puede ser un futuro gran cliente.

Muestre sus tarjetas de compliance

Asegúrese de tener listas y disponibles todas las políticas y procedimientos que van a seguir. Algunas de las principales deberían ser: la política de incorporación de clientes, la política de Anti Money Laundering (AML), política de privacidad y de presentación de informes. Debe considerar añadir políticas requeridas en otras jurisdicciones, ya que puede ayudarle a formar una nueva relación con un banco sin afectar su estrategia de negocio.

Formularios de relaciones

Lo más probable es que si usted no maneja un mínimo de 50 millones en su fondo, los bancos de primer nivel no se van a pelear por su negocio. Las mejores relaciones que tengo en banca son con entidades medianas. Estos bancos son lo suficientemente grandes como para tener bancas conocidas y le pueden aportar tranquilidad sobre su custodia, mientras que al mismo tiempo son lo suficientemente pequeños para entender que un negocio nuevo significa crecer juntos y encontrar soluciones que funcionen tanto para el cliente como para el banco.

Columna de opinión de Jonathan Rivas, managing director de dcdb Group

¿Exuberancia irracional 2.0?

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Irrational Exuberance 2.0?
Foto: Fondo Monetario Internacional Fotógrafo/Stephen Jaffe - Fotografías de la Reunión Anual del FMI 2007, FMI. ¿Exuberancia irracional 2.0?

Las señales de alarma que preceden a las burbujas crecen día a día. Grandes instituciones, como el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) y Banco de Pagos Internacionales (BPI o BIS), así como algunos individuos que han acertado a destapar otras burbujas en el pasado – como Raghuram Rajan, gobernador del Banco de la Reserva de India, que anticipó acertadamente la burbuja de real estate en EE.UU.- han empezado a dar mensajes de alerta.

Stefan Hofrichter, CFA, director de Estrategia y Economía Global en Allianz Global Investors, ha elaborado un informe que se presentó en la conferencia Allianz GI Investment Forum en Fráncfort el mes pasado, en el que se ahonda en la siguiente cuestión:

¿Estamos ante la creación de una nueva burbuja en el precio de los activos, o peor aún, ante una serie de burbujas en varios activos, alimentadas por la política monetaria ultra-laxa?

El debate no debería tomarnos por sorpresa: en EE.UU. la renta variable se encontraba apenas unos puntos porcentuales por debajo de sus máximos históricos a la hora de elaborarse el informe, mientras que otros mercados de renta variable han tocado sus máximos a lo largo de 2014. Los spreads de los bonos – ya sean corporativos, emergentes, o bonos soberanos de la eurozona – son muy estrechos en términos históricos, aunque no están en sus niveles mínimos. Además, los precios del real estate han rebotado con fuerza durante los últimos años en EE.UU., Reino Unido y varios países más de la eurozona. En este punto Allianz GI ha considerado sensato actualizar su análisis sobre valoración y burbujas de activos.

Puede acceder al informe completo a través de este link. En todo caso, aquí mostramos algunas de las conclusiones del análisis:

Renta variable: En base al PER ajustado por el clico (CAPE por sus siglas en inglés), llamado también “PER de Shiller”, la renta variable global estaría en su precio justo, muy en línea con los múltiplos medios a largo plazo. La renta variable europea, en especial la periférica, incluso está barata, si se considera esta ratio. Lo mismo puede decirse de la renta variable emergente, que según este análisis cotiza con un descuento del entorno del 20% si se compara con las ratios de los países industrializados, y que se encuentran además en su nivel de valoración más bajo desde el año 2006 – un descuento similar al que registraron a mediados de la década de los ochenta.

Mientras, si bien la renta variable de EE.UU. cotiza actualmente a ratios que sin duda son altos comparados con sus medias históricas, las valoraciones no se encuentran en terreno de burbuja y no previenen, según apunta Allianz GI, que los precios sigan subiendo. Las valoraciones actuales no son por sí solas razón suficiente para ser extra cuidadoso con la renta variable, si bien Allianz GI destaca que con estas valoraciones, la historia nos dice que los retornos en renta variable americana estarán por debajo de la media en la próxima década.

Bonos: la deuda soberana de alta calidad, como los Treasuries de EE.UU., los Gilts británicos o el Bund alemán, están rentando significativamente menos de lo que Allianz GI considera normal dada la tendencia actual de crecimiento del PIB, que debería servir de referencia a largo plazo para su valoración, en base experiencias pasadas y a la teoría económica. Sin embargo, Allianz GI se ve más cómodo respecto a la valoración de los bonos no-alemanes de la zona euro en relación al Bund.

Sin embargo, el análisis para los bonos corporativos es menos favorable, si se compara su valoración actual con la de principios de año. Contodo, en el análisis destacan que sus spreads frente a los bonos soberanos son ahora mayores a los que hubo antes de que explotara la burbuja del real estate, algo que es particularmente cierto en los bonos high-yield, ya sean de EE.UU. o de Europa.

Según el análisis, los bonos de mercados emergentes emitidos en divisas fuertes (índice: EMBI+) están razonablemente valorados, si bien la deuda emergente en moneda local ofrece más valor: en primer lugar, por su mayor rendimiento comparado con los soberanos desarrollados; y en segundo, porque los expertos esperan también una contribución positiva a la rentabilidad de estos bonos vía revalorización de sus divisas, que estarían infravaloradas en varios casos, según la valoración a largo plazo de Allianz GI.