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Henk Grootveld (Robeco): “The Digitalization of the World Has Led to the Introduction of Collaborative Robots”

In his speech during the celebration of the “2018 Kick-Off Masterclass Seminar” in Palm Beach, Henk Grootveld, Head of Trends Investing at Robeco, compared two photographs of New York to explain the next wave of digitalization. The first one, was taken in the year 1901, at Fifth Avenue, and only one car was driving among a vast amount of horse carriages. The first internal combustion engine had been invented 20 years ago by Mr. Benz and his nephew, and the use of cars was far from extended. However, in twelve years’ time, in the same street and city, horse carriages became the exception and the first car models dominated the streets. New York went from one scenario to the other quite fast, simply because cars were cheaper than horses and easier to maintain.

In the same way, consumers went digital when Apple introduced its first iPhone in June 2007. The world has changed, and smartphones are a vital part of daily activities, a third of relationships between people and half of purchases are made through smartphones.

Today, the digitalization of the world has led to the introduction of collaborative robots. Rethink Robotics has created Sawyer and Baxter, ‘smart’ robots that can be taught new skills rather than being programmed and that can work together with humans, as they are full of sensors. Most of collaborative robots are used in the car’s industry, which is experimenting a high degree of transformation.

“In Germany, this process of transformation has been called the Industry 4.0, because it is the fourth attempt to become more efficient. The first industrial revolution started with the use of steam, the second one, brought manufacturing processes, the third, introduced computers and simple robots, and in the fourth revolution, robots can be connected and communicate with people through the internet of things. This new phase will radically change production in the next 10 years, in the same way as the smartphone introduced a change on how we think about consumption”, he said.

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The rise in robot use is particularly pronounced in Asia, specifically in the countries that have a problem of demographic aging, like South Korea and Japan, whose working population has been shrinking in the last 6 years.

“China’s working population is also diminishing, there will be a huge need to replace labor for robots. Specifically, they are expecting to go from the current rate of 68 robots per 10.000 employees to 150 robots. It is possible that they could get this target sooner or that they overshoot it. It is my belief, that by 2022, China will be somewhere around 200 hundred robots per 10.000 employees, while in the United States, the current number of installed industrial robots per 10.000 employees is 190”, he added.

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Automatization and digitalization are transforming all different sectors in the world and will definitively change the way people is related to reality. The Economist magazine has a very positive view, about robots, production of food and the idea that everything comes cheaper and is locally produced. However, The New Yorker, has a gloomier view, depicting a world in which robots will take all the jobs, showing two sides of the same coin. “Some estimates foretell that more than 50% of the known jobs in the world will disappear in the next 15 years. People will start to work in new companies”.

According to the World Economic Forum, advanced technologies will increase efficiency and reduce costs by up to 30%. Moreover, they forecast that factories can shorten their production times by 20% to 50%. They believe that globalization will become a trend of the past, production will become more local, transforming manufacturing into specialized and flexible production hubs able to be adjusted to the needs of consumer. “Adidas has already moved their manufacturing line from Thailand to Germany, where they are producing all their expensive running shoes as customers order them. They measure clients’ feet, in the shop or online, and within 24 hours, they produce the shoe and send it to customer’s door using smart manufacturing and 3D printing. Another example is Maserati, the Italian exclusive automaker, that has introduced a software in designing and production that has reduced the time-to-market by 50%, from 12 years to 6 years, by implementing technology related to the internet of things. At the same time, 3D printing technology is allowing huge advances and positive effects to the needs of every individual, for example, the technique of making 3D printed prosthetic limbs is very valuable in building prostheses for children, which are normally more complex due to their small size and constant growth”.

The electric self-driving car

At the same time, the artificial intelligent co-bots will change our society and the car industry. The introduction of electric self-driving cars will reduce accidents by roughly a 90% and will erase the need for repair shops or car insurance.

“Electric cars will eliminate all nitrogen oxide fumes and fine particulate matter, as well as it will reduce smog. China has become one of the largest advocates of electric vehicles, Beijing will replace all its buses with electric engines in one year. Breathing Beijing’s air reduces 10 years the expected life of its population versus any other city in China”.

The digital content per car will increase by 450% and will turn the car from hardware to software. “Two Swedish companies, Ericsson and Volvo, are working together to develop intelligent media streaming for self-driving cars. The idea is to adjust the journey to reduce the time in the car, but maximizing the time to watch content, allowing customers to choose routes and select content tailored to the length of their commute”.

Additionally, the introduction of robot taxi’s will improve mileage per car, dissolve traffic jams and make most parking spaces useless. “We normally only use a 5% of the time of our cars, and the other 95% is not used, while robo-taxis use the 43% of the time, gaining a huge efficiency and avoiding the need of parking lots. Waymo, Robo Taxi and Smart Nation Singapore are the leaders”.

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Digital finance

When it comes to digital finance, emerging markets are in the lead. “During the Chinese New Year celebrations of 2017, about CNY 462 billion (approximately U$D 68 billion) were exchanged in online payments, representing 343 million transactions, a 48% year on year increase, and 760,000 hongbao’s per second – hongbaos are red envelopes with cash as a monetary gift, a Chinese tradition during Chinese New Year believed to symbolize good luck and ward off evil spirits-. China and India are set to become larger in listed FinTech than the rest of the world combined.

In the next ten years, cash will become an exception and online payment methods will become mainstream. Digital finance will open the way to 2 billion people who currently do not manage their financial affairs.

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Cyber Insecurity

Finally, the lack of cybersecurity is the biggest threat to digitalization. In July 2017, global companies like Maersk, WPP, FedEx and Merck struggled to continue with their normal operations after being victims of a huge cyber-attack that compromised hundreds of computers, equipment and other technology. Some months before, the malware Wanacry had hit around 150 countries around the world, demanding ransom payments in the Bitcoin cryptocurrency. But far from being addressed, the problem will get worse in the future with the increase of cloud computing, which intensifies its vulnerability.

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Ed Verstappen (Robeco): “The «Winner-Takes-All» Effect is Increasingly Felt in the Technological Platform Segment”

| Por Meritxell Sedo | 0 Comentarios

Of the three secular trends pursued by the Robeco Global ConsumerTrends strategy, the digitization of consumption was by far the strongest in 2017. Consumption through technology and consumption in emerging markets exceeded the consumption of famous brands. In his speech during the celebration of the ‘2018 Kick-Off Masterclass Seminar’ in Palm Beach, Ed Verstappen, Client Portfolio Manager, explained how end-of-year profits confirmed the strength of the digital consumer: «Technology companies such as PayPal, Amazon and MercadoLibre showed strong profits, while the US retail sector shows a general weakening. The commodity consumption sector was weakened in both the US and the European Union, but benefited from the start of new opportunities for mergers and acquisitions. In addition, there was an attractive recovery at the operating level in most companies in the luxury sector. We believe that much of what we have seen in 2017 will be developed in the same way in 2018.»

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Growth stocks dominated the markets. Both the FANG, (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google), and its emerging version, the BAT (Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent), are the drivers for a relevant part of the market. Some of the risks that these stocks entail are valuation levels: «Shareholders tend to like companies that offer high levels of profitability, but they also ask themselves, ‘what will come next? Should I take my profits and leave the position, or do I feel that it will continue to grow later? In that case we take a strategic approach, even if it is our favorite company, with a correct trend, we make sure to sell what is showing a false growth, at least partially its exposure. An example would be Facebook; we have reduced its beta in the portfolio, replacing it with Chinese technology companies, which have provided the portfolio with greater benefits than its US counterparts. Facebook, which for a long time was among the top positions of the fund, may be affected by the increase in regulations. The benefits obtained in advertising were especially good, but we can see the problems that the current use that is being given to the Facebook platform can lead to. In contrast, Instagram, one of its subsidiaries, is in our opinion much more promising than the Facebook platform.»

The fundamentals of the largest internet platforms are very solid; in fact, Facebook has experienced 18 consecutive quarters with a profit growth of over 50% Google has reached 31 quarters with organic revenue growth of 20%, its stocks have risen, but the good news is that they are supported at a fundamental level by strong profits and a boost in revenue. Likewise, Microsoft has achieved a growth of its cloud computing business of more than 90% for ten consecutive quarters. “The ‘winner-takes-all’ effect is increasingly felt in the technological platform segment.The dominant companies in the internet sector take the entire market share. But to be honest, this is something that also happens in the luxury sector, where large companies have a good position and weaker companies do not have such a good position.»

The strategy’s investment process is based on finding secular trends that change the world in a disruptive way, but from the macroeconomic point of view, the current environment serves as support: a low unemployment rate, high consumer confidence, and potentially higher interest rates. The US leads in terms of consumption, something logical, as its economy has a greater consumption base. Although consumer confidence is strong, spending has been somewhat depressed, so there is still room for improvement, especially if wages start to rise.

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Secular Trends in Consumption

Within the digital consumer trend, Robeco’s strategy focuses less on advertising on mobile devices and more on the video game industry. Historically, the video game business had not had a continuity in profit flow, it was more a matter of hit-or-miss with games’ acceptance, but developers are now focusing on building franchises in the long term. Digital downloads have made the intermediary disappear, which has increased productivity in the industry. «There are new opportunities for monetization in the videogame industry, in which revenues from sales of virtual products or accessories for games, such as new levels, can be increased through micro-transactions. Mobile games offer developers a good opportunity to attract high margins in advertising. In addition, the so-called e-Sports are gaining followers; the retransmission of some finals has reached 36 million viewers. The platforms that distribute these events have seen their number of followers double. Specifically, Twitch.TV, the platform that Amazon owns, has registered more daily viewers than CNN.»

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The second trend within digital consumption is retransmissions of online video and through mobile devices. The competition for video diffusion has increased, with a greater number of competitors: YouTube, Facebook, Amazon Prime, etc., while the tendency is that Internet advertising exceeds television advertising. Search engines such as Google or Bing and social networks like Facebook, Instagram and Snapchat obtain more than 70% of their profits through online advertising.

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In addition, the third trend in digital consumption, the means-of-payment trend, shows that there is still a long way to go. Cash is still the dominant form of payment, but more and more forms of online payment are gaining ground. PayPal is currently the most used platform in e-commerce transactions. Meanwhile, small and medium enterprises benefit from their innovative payment offerings such as Square, a company that was founded by the creator of Twitter, or Apple Pay; however, the three main payment platforms continue to use the current payment infrastructure, which is why Visa and MasterCard continue to maintain a strong position.

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As for the emerging consumer trend, it is expected that, by the end of 2018, China’s retail distribution business will reach domestic sales of $5.8 trillion, the same figure expected for the US. The change in the behavior of the emerging consumer is determined mainly by the increase in the living standards of the Chinese population, which increases their spending on leisure, travel, and luxury goods. The anticorruption campaign carried out by the Chinese government led to a substantial decrease in the growth of the luxury sector, but little by little the sector is experiencing a rebound. The growth of China’s middle class should continue to drive growth in luxury purchases, along with a recovery in consumer confidence in mature markets.

The adoption of online commerce in China is much more advanced than in Western markets. The lack of a well-established physical infrastructure has accelerated the transition to online commerce. Alibaba broke its sales record on Singles Day with sales figures that exceeded those of 2016 by 42%.

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Finally, within well-known brands’ trends, companies that have a strong brand presence tend to outperform their competitors throughout the cycle. They usually enjoy a better perception of product performance, greater consumer loyalty, and a more inelastic consumer response in relation to price changes and higher profit margins.

Bjorn Forfang (CFA Institute): “FinTech is Going to Fundamentally Transform this Industry in the Next 5 to Ten Years, if Not Sooner”

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Every time Bjorn Forfang, Deputy Chief Executive Officer at CFA Institute, travels, he always gets asked the question of what could be his specific advice on how capital markets and how finance industry in certain countries should behave. His answer is always the same: “Although there are differences in financial markets, the very core of what we are trying to accomplish is exactly the same in every country around the world, and it comes down to trust, ethical and professional standards, and that is the core value proposition that exist whether you are in Brazil, Chile or Uruguay, or any other country in the world,” he stated at the “2018 Latin America Investment Conference,” an event jointly hosted by the CFA Institute and the CFA Society of Brazil in Rio de Janeiro.

The CFA Institute wants to globally lead the investment industry by globally promoting the highest standards of ethics, education and professional excellence for the ultimate benefit of the society. And, as presumptuous at this may sound, they really mean to benefit of the society: “We simply believe firmly, that fair and free capital markets underpinned by strong ethical values and highest professional standards is critical for prosperity on the financial industry. The financial industry has contributed significantly to society, and I cannot think on how many countries could actually achieve prosperity in the long run and reduced poverty without free and fair capital markets. Financial markets are the intersection of capital and ideas. There are people that may have ideas but no capital, and there are people that have capital but no ideas, it is that intersection what creates prosperity for nations and that is what we believe, and that is why the benefit of society is such an important part of the value statement of what the CFA Institute stands for,” he added.

The CFA Program started out 60 years ago, mostly in US and Canada, but now is a global program, with a 45% of growth in the Asia Pacific region and a 33% of growth in the Americas region, where the growth of the mature markets is flatting as well, and most of the growth comes from Latin America, being one of the fastest areas of growth for CFA Charterholders. “Argentina and Uruguay had a combined society because Uruguay was not big enough by itself. But once Uruguay obtained more than 50 members and had a path to reach 100 members, the inside rule of the CFA Institute to create a CFA Society, they obtained the approval from their board and became a separate society. Colombia will be the next country to have a CFA Society in Latin America, they already have 80 members and 400 candidates.”

The CFA Societies of Latin America interact among them because they have similar issues. They are developing economies, they have a sort of immature capital markets when compared with some of the developed markets, and they cooperate on multiple levels. And they also share best practices when it comes to member and continuing education events. Moreover, the Latin American advocacy look forward to preserving best practices issues and concerns among capital markets challenges.

The lack of trust

According to Forfang, one of the biggest problems in the financial industry is the fundamental trust gap that has been widening for many years, between what the financial industry delivers and what the costumers and clients perceive are delivering. “The biggest problem is trust, we have conducted a survey all over the world, with 3,000 to 4,000 respondents from institutional and retail investors, released on March 28^th. The survey asked about the concept of trust, about the quality of the financial advice that clients obtain and about attributes that the clients are looking for among other questions. In Brazil, there is a decent amount of people who still trust the industry. But Brazilians in this survey are also extremely skeptical, that trust is not something that they take for granted, is something that industry must deliver on, every single day, and that is a challenge for us, but is also an opportunity to seek for much higher professional standards in other to meet that challenges that we have, among our clients. The trust gap can be closed in a couple of ways, as trust is really about two things: credibility and professionalism, putting both together is a solution to narrow the trust gap.”

In the path of reestablishing the trust, Forfang believes that honesty and transparency are key. “Fees need to be transparent. Products, if they are complicated need to be fully explained so people who buy it understand exactly what it is that they are buying, and honest about expectations. There is a gap between how people think how they may live on retirement relative to what the actual reality is in every company of the world, and I think is up to us to be honest and explain what it does mean. There must be a commitment to put the client first when we are giving advice to a client, it interest must be ahead of our interest and that of our employers.”

The other challenges

There are other problems that the financial industry is facing: active management does not seem to be delivering value after fees, which is why you see the proliferation of passive moderate ETFs, quantitative strategies are reaping away alpha opportunities, replacing human beings with computers, and the result of all of that is margin compression. Also, the rising of markets for the last several years certainly have added a secular market compression to the industry, that leads to consolidation of asset management firms, as they are trying to build scale in distribution, technology and product offering.

Another challenge is fintech and its effect in the financial services industry. The CFA Institute firmly believes that Fintech is going to fundamentally transform this industry in the next 5 to ten years, if not sooner. Lastly, there is the regulatory scrutiny that the financial industry faces. These are the reasons why there is a need for full and complete commitment to lifelong learning by the professionals of the financial industry.

“There are topics in the curriculum of the CFA Program that are static that will always be, like the fundamental analysis, asset allocation, portfolio strategy, quantitative strategy and economics. Those things will always be in the curriculum. But then, in our continuing education program, professionals can rotate in and out topics that looks like they are going to come up, but not sure, like some aspects of fintech or blockchain. We want to make sure that our members are up to date with the latest thinking, but that is different than putting it into a curriculum,” he concluded.

Serena Williams encabeza el All Star Tennis Charity Event de Amundi Pioneer en Miami

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Serena Williams Headlines Amundi Pioneer’s Annual All Star Tennis Charity Event — Pixabay CC0 Public DomainFoto: Alex Huggan. Serena Williams encabeza el All Star Tennis Charity Event de Amundi Pioneer en Miami

Amundi Pioneer patrocinó el evento anual All Star Tennis Charity organizado por Cliff Drysdale el pasado martes 20 de marzo en el Ritz Carlton en Key Biscayne. Serena Williams, campeona de tenis de fama mundial, encabezó el torneo de este año y estuvo acompañada por otras estrellas del tenis como Simona Halep, Darren Cahill, Frances Tiafoe y Nick Kyrgios.

Este es el tercer año que Amundi Pioneer patrocina el evento. En esta convocatoria los beneficios irán a parar a ACEing Autism, una organización nacional sin ánimo de lucro que trabaja con niños con autismo en todo Estados Unidos para mejorar sus vidas a través del tenis.

El torneo round robin brindó la oportunidad a 24 jugadores amateur de interactuar, aprender y jugar con algunos de los mejores tenistas del mundo. Para ello Amundi Pioneer invitó a representantes y clientes offshore de Estados Unidos a sentarse en la sección VIP a pie de pista en el torneo para apoyar la causa.

Según Amundi Pioneer, «el evento fue un gran éxito, y recaudó un total de 40.000 dólares para la organización benéfica».

Richard Spurling, director ejecutivo y fundador de ACEing Autism, recordó que su compañía brinda apoyo a más de 1.000 niños autistas a nivel nacional cada semana y está trabajando para expandirse y llegar a más niños al mejorar sus ofertas de programas. Su plan es llegar a 4.500 niños autistas a finales de 2021.

Zeina Latif (XP Investimentos): “Brazil Tends to Fail Managing Success, But it is Not that Bad Managing Crisis”

| Por Meritxell Sedo | 0 Comentarios

According to Zeina Latif, Chief Economist at XP Investimentos, Brazil tends to fail in terms of managing success, but it is not that bad managing crisis. “If you take Cardoso’s or Lula’s first administration mandate, both started with huge challenges and they ended well, and we saw the reflection and the outcome of their policies. So, I think that ironically, the most serious fiscal crisis of Brazil’s recent history has a good side of the story, as it leads to force Brazil into rethink government intervention in economy and into eliminating those policies that are inefficient. It is really challenging, but the history tells us that we can do it. Our problem is that we cannot manage very well periods of success”, she stated at the “2018 Latin America Investment Conference”, an event jointly hosted by the CFA Institute and the CFA Society of Brazil in Rio de Janeiro.

Brazil suffered a significant draw on its productivity after being affected by the measures taken by former President Dilma Rousseff. The new government implemented a material shift in economic policies that are believed to be working, and that soon will bring some improvement in productivity as well. Unorthodox price policies that led to a high consumer inflation were removed, the new government understood that this issue was the first thing that needed to be tackled. “Regarding consumer inflation, we need to understand that the current decrease was not because the Central Bank was lucky, or because the forex exchange behaved favorably against other major currencies. We need to recognize that this low inflation is like the patient’s fever that is receding because the doctor was right on its diagnosis and on the treatment as well. This government understood the urge of the tackling fiscal prices and their strategy was correct”, Zeina added.

What can be expected for the coming years in Brazil?

Brazil is facing one of the most serious fiscal crisis in its history. In October, voters will elect another president who will have to face significant challenges. “Brazil needs really bad to stabilize its debt to GDP ratio, otherwise, macroeconomic stability will not be possible. We have clearly a problem of sustainability of public debt and the pension reform is the bedrock of the fiscal adjustment. I do not have many doubts that the next president will need to remember that politicians always consider cost-benefits of their decisions. In terms of political ambitions, is not really a good idea for President Temer to approve a pension reform now. It would have a huge political cost and the benefits will be reflected in the mandate of next president. In a scenario in which markets were really concerned about this issue, there would be a significant benefit of doing the pension reform this year, but clearly this is not the case. Markets have given the benefit of the doubt and are expecting this reform to be accomplished for the next president. But, anyway, this is something critical, we will not be able to see sustainable growth in Brazil while there is macroeconomic instability”, she said.

Brazil needs to look forward and implement structural reforms, the good news is that the current administration has already started. Brazil needs higher productivity gains to compensate for the end of the demographic dividend, the gap between working force and people out of the labor force is going to decrease in the next five years, and it means lower growth potential for Brazil. The next government will need to accelerate reforms to prepare the country towards the end of the demographic bonds, otherwise potential growth in Brazil’s GDP will be 1% or 1,5%, a mediocre growth rate for an emerging economy. Other matter that will be crucial for Brazil will be to open the economy for international trade, as the country needs to increase competition.

“I believe this is one of the most critical moments in Brazil history, but I also think there is a good chance of seeing good news in the next government. In my opinion, the risk of populism has decreased a lot. We see this more stable economic environment, in which unemployment rates and the fear of losing jobs still very high, but we are not seeing protests in the streets. We are seeing society that has calmed down”.

Economy is an important subject in Brazil, a country that has gone through two impeachment processes since its democratization and in both cases the processes were initiated following a collapse in the economy. “Now we have a president that has one digit of approval rate, but the streets are not asking for his ouster. All the possible candidates for presidency are looking for talented and renowned economists to be their finance minister. Politicians understand that there is no room for more mistake on the economic policy and they are trying to show their vision on the economy”.

Finally, the golden rule, a constitutional rule established to avoid the issuance of new bonds by the government to finance current expending, acts as a cap. The next president elected will need to gain flexibilization on the golden rule. Also, there is a significant change in the economic debate. “We are now discussing structural reforms on macroeconomic policies and pensions, and it is something that really matters, because 10 years ago, when Fernando Henrique Cardoso tried to approve a pension reform neither the press nor the private sector supported him. They did not understand the need for a reform. Today, nobody is denying the need of reforms. Politicians in Brazil have become very pragmatic and they use cost-benefit analysis all the time. The discussion is whether the next president will be ambitious enough and will have political conditions to do something different. Today, the question is whether it is going to be a good reform or not, and it is a completely different question. Although the challenges are huge, Brazil is better positioned to tackle these obstacles. Our politicians are not ideological, they are pragmatic”, she concluded.

Mauro Miranda: “CFA Institute is Present in Brazil to Add Resources”

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CFA Institute and CFA Society Brazil jointly hosted the second edition of its “Latin America Investment Conference” on March 1^st and 2^nd. After having held its first edition in Cancun, Mexico, this time the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, was chosen to bring together more than 240 investment professionals.

CFA Society Brazil, the local society of the CFA Institute in Brazil, was founded in 2004, has more than 1,000 members and expects to have an annual growth of 15% percent in the next four years, contributing to exceeding the figure of the 2,000 members in Latin America.

Mauro Miranda, CFA, an investment professional specialized in fixed income, including structured debt and private credit areas, is also the president of the CFA Society Brazil since 2016. During his two years in office he has managed to open an office in Sao Paulo for hosting the society’s activities, to make once again Rio a test center and to hold the annual investment conference in Latin America was held in this city.

In the last 14 years since the CFA Society Brazil was founded, with some 50 members, much has changed, both economically, in the political arena and in the development of markets.

“In 2004, the global economy was going through a period of growth and attractive prices for commodities, Brazil benefited from these circumstances and went through a promising period until 2007. Meanwhile, in the 2002 elections Lula won the presidency. During his mandates, there were no major changes in terms of economic policy. There were certain ups and downs, but these were the usual ones in any normal business cycle. Brazil was then affected by the crisis of 2008, obtaining a very negative GDP in that year, recovering later like many other economies. Later, we began the period in which Dilma Rousseff took the presidency, implementing very unorthodox economic measures. The GDP fell quarter after quarter, not recovering the path of growth until after its deposition.

In terms of capital markets, a much more robust regulation has been achieved. The Securities and Exchange Commission of Brazil (CVM) has issued several instructions that were very important to facilitate the establishment of banks and asset management institutions in Brazil at that time. As an emerging economy, Brazil is a country in progress. In July 1994, the Real Plan was implemented, the plan that introduced the current Brazilian currency and ended with a period of hyperinflation of 80% per month. Then, the regulatory agencies and certain economic policy measures were created that included greater fiscal austerity, such as the Fiscal Responsibility Law, signed in 2000, forcing municipalities, states and the federal government to comply with it. We have also seen a progression in the creation of elements that allow the development of capital markets in Brazil «.

According to Mauro, in Brazil there was a clear crowding out effect in the economy when the government was paying a 15% annually. Investors stopped investing in the private sector because they incurred in greater risk for a not-so-great spread. «Thanks to the fact that inflation levels were controlled, the Central Bank of Brazil was able to lower its Selic rate. This was the prerequisite for many investors to begun to see other opportunities. The data from the National Superintendency of Complementary Social Security (PREVIC) indicates that only a 0.2% of the assets in the pension plans are invested in foreign assets and the reason is precisely the high interest rates that the government was paying up to a couple of years. Now the pension funds should start looking for new opportunities, which can be in foreign investment in stocks or bonds or investment in local shares and corporate bonds, subject to credit risk, creating the need for more investment instruments to be available to investors. Companies can now seek financing in a range slightly above 6.75% of the Selic rate for those projects that were forgotten in the drawer and can now be profitable. While investors can now look for opportunities in the private corporate sector «

Having taken control of inflation and lowered the level of interest rates, there is a need for the government to implement the pension reform to reduce the current fiscal deficit. «The current pension system causes a fiscal deficit that is not sustainable over time. Either the next Brazilian government becomes aware of this reality or the rating agencies will not revise upwards their forecasts on Brazil. The international investors will choose other countries in the region to invest, such as Peru, Colombia, Mexico or Argentina.»

The presence of the CFA Institute in Brazil

One of the issues on which the CFA Institute focuses is on increasing the qualification standards of investment professionals. This is accomplished through university associations, scholarships, global competitions in the field of economic research -CFA Research Challenge- and of course, through the CFA Program, a rigorous program of three annual exams, for which the CFA Society of Brazil has launched the first edition of a preparation course in Sao Paulo.

«We still have many professionals to be trained in the market and the CFA Program is very well recognized worldwide. Brazilians like the challenge of preparing it, of seeking excellence. It is very hard, but it offers a high reward for our members, who can opt for better job opportunities when they are CFA Charterholders. In addition, it is a global passport that is recognized throughout the world.»

To contribute to the advancement of professional excellence, there are services that promote activities that help members find opportunities in the workplace, with a job board both locally and globally with the CFA Institute. «Many companies seek CFA Charterholders when they are looking to hire someone, it is a guarantee that that person is well qualified and completed a rigorous financial curriculum and also gained experience before joining their firms.»

Also, the establishment of standards and ethics in the profession is probably one of the most important areas for the CFA Institute and local societies. «Especially in Brazil and in the Latin American region, after everything that has happened in recent years, we believe it is very important. As well as having integrity in the markets, an area that we will continue to defend from now on, we have certain goals and standards that we would like asset managers and banks to take as theirs to increase their commitment to the industry.»

Another important area they focus on is the development of financial markets. To this end, they encourage debate among industry members, publishing recommendations on policies and procedures, as well as research studies on equity markets, fixed income and pension plans. «Last year we launched the first monograph contest on financial innovation. We had a total of 21 participants who managed to publish their research papers, with a similar approach to the monograph awards made by the Central Bank of Brazil. Considering the success obtained, we repeat again this year, «said Mauro Miranda.

Relations with regulatory bodies are too an important point for the CFA Society Brazil, which has strengthened its advocacy area, expanding the dialogue with the Securities Commission of Brazil (CVM) and the National Superintendence of Complementary Social Security (PREVIC) to obtain the recognition of the CFA Charter as necessary accreditation for the performance of certain functions in the financial markets. «Our voice has a greater relevance in the markets in terms of influencing the new regulations, but always having the investor’s interest in mind, always from an ethical and transparent perspective. We have sent our comments to the CVM, basically when there has been a public consultation, about 4 or 5 per year, and that is how we maintain the course of our relationship and communicate the opinions of our members and participants in our working groups.»

Finally, Mauro Miranda stressed that the CFA Institute’s commitment to Brazil is unwavering, its investment in the country has been very strong and will continue to be in the future. «This affects the members and our work with regulators in improving capital markets. We sell ideas and ideals and talk about best practices in the markets. CFA Institute is present in Brazil to add resources.»

GFG CAPITAL: A Value Proposition to Channel Change from Private Banking to Family Offices

| Por Gabriela Huerta | 0 Comentarios

The story of the Gruener brothers, Eduardo and Mauricio, is the story of a family establishing a multi-family office in Miami in July 2003. Like most of their clients, they are from Mexico, and both wished to treat their clients as they themselves would like to be served by a wealth management firm. “One family at a time, that’s how I can summarize the culture of the group. We see the client as an extension of our own family, and that’s how we also consider the professionals who work with us,» explains Eduardo Gruener.

GFG Capital started almost 15 years ago. Mauricio was then working for Credit Suisse, in its wealth management division, after having worked for Republic National Bank of New York and for Lehman Brothers. Eduardo’s curriculum is equally outstanding, but in his case always in the area of investment banking; first in Bankers Trust, and later in Deutsche Bank.

When they decided to launch GFG Capital, their combined knowledge was perfectly complementary. «Between the two of us, we covered two important parts of banking, private banking and investment banking, and we decided that we wanted to start this business together, with the philosophy of sitting on the same side of the table as our clients and eliminating the conflicts of interest inherent to private banking. From the beginning, we knew that we wanted to launch a wealth management area and an investment banking area. Real Estate, our third area of expertise, came later. These three divisions make up the group today, although we started with the multi-family office, GFG Capital,» says Eduardo.

The firm now has another office in San Diego, California, from where they serve both international and domestic clients. «We are a dynamic team of 18 people, within a very family-like environment. We manage close to 900 million dollars for our family office clients. We are registered with the SEC. I would say that 60% of our clients are families in Latin America and 40% are US residents.»

Eduardo tells us that the profile of their main clients is that of self-made entrepreneurs. «They are families that started businesses, which have done very well and grew up with us. Part of the organic growth of the group is because we serve many families of this type. Obviously we also have other types of clients, such as second generations, but I would say that our ‘core’ is this. The highest percentage of our families is Mexican, followed by families from the US and Colombia, in that order.»

Witnesses to industry changes

«14 or 15 years ago this business was not as we know it today. We started with the wealth management division and, especially in the Latin American part, we noticed that when we talked to people about what a multi-family office is, it was a very little known concept. Families, even the largest ones, operated at that time with private banking and when we told them why it was important to have a family office with their own interests and capable of designing a global and coordinated strategy, it was difficult for them to understand it», recalls Mauricio.

Perhaps the key to the whole issue was explaining that diversification was not about opening different private banking accounts in different banks, but based on analyzing the portfolio in a global way, he explains.

From private banking to family office

“At the end of the day, the bank earned money from the product it sold, but we apply a ‘fee’ for the assets managed and for designing a strategy aligned with the objectives of the entire family and with its risk tolerance. We eradicate the source of conflict of interests that private banking has. Fifteen years ago, this that is now so common was actually a very innovative concept. This was an important part of the group’s success. At present, the large families of Latin America attend to their financial needs with a multi-family office and I would say that, in fact, many do not even have a private bank anymore. This has been one of the most radical changes in the industry in the last decade.»

It‘s true that it didn’t happen overnight, it was a gradual transformation, he clarifies. «Things in our countries are a little slower than in other markets,» laughs Eduardo; adding later, in a more serious note: «At the end of the day, what counts is the model of multifamily office that we have and the benefits that we can offer».

He also explains the benefits that this structure adds. «The feedback we receive from our clients is that the possibility of managing multiple custodians is a very interesting value-added service. When you are with a private bank it’s that one bank and that’s it. But from GFG Capital, we help our families to manage and supervise all their relationships, either in one or in many banks,» says the youngest of the Grueners.

«Our investment philosophy is active and most of the work is done through asset managers, but at the same time there are certain strategies where there is not as much possibility of generating alpha, where we use ETFs. However, for us it is more of a product to complement the portfolio», he adds when talking about the investment instruments they use in their day-to-day.

Client profile in Mexico

When asked about what their Mexican families are asking for, both brothers agree that this type of client is becoming more and more sophisticated. The proximity to the United States and the high exposure to international markets are making the market less local and more global.

«The Mexican client is increasingly more like the American in terms of the type of strategies he seeks in order to manage his assets and the type of products he wants to access. We must also bear in mind that the Mexican market has grown a lot, it’s a market with very high liquidity, and the number of issuers in its stock markets has increased exponentially. At present, the Mexican family, or Mexican wealth, feels very comfortable in local markets, but it delves a lot into international markets. This segment is where GFG Capital has more second generations.»

Eduardo firmly states that what this type of client asks for is «to interact with people as little as possible», to be able to consult by themselves the movements, performance, the portfolio’s risk statistics, previous operations, or the duration of the fixed income, for example.

«This level of transparency and accessibility is one of the things that differentiate us significantly. We have invested a lot in technology. We have just launched an interactive platform for mobile, web and tablet, which allows the client to get into their profile and manage the information. Having the information when they want it is something that is very important for millennials.»

He adds: «Since in other areas of the business we also do investment banking and a lot of real estate, this is a perfect complement to the family office and allows us to really give global solutions where we attend to everything that has to do with your finances. This is much more comfortable than having to rely on many different providers.»

Families who migrate to the United States

Another area of knowledge of the GFG Capital team concerns migration to the US and the previous steps a family can take to leverage some tax advantages. «We advise on how to manage your pre and post-transfer investments, always in the good hands of a tax-consultancy office,» they explain.

«What these families must know when they migrate to the United States,» Mauricio explains, «is that regardless of their immigration status, whatever the type of visa, or even if they don’t come with any, several things can be done to prepare their assets for the moment they become US residents for tax purposes.»

The example he provides is the creation of a trust to avoid inheritance tax. «If we deposit the family’s capital in a trust where the beneficiaries of that money are the next generation, the inheritance tax is eliminated. It is a way to generate a lot of fiscal efficiency. But you have to do it before you arrive. The planning and execution of a scheme of these characteristics has to go hand-in-hand with the financial part. That’s the part we play.»

Trump’s tax reform

Obviously, in this regard, Trump’s tax reform is going to create many changes in the US. The Gruener brothers agree in that, while in principle this reform will only affect families in the US, there are channels for foreigners with investments, which is something that generates revenue for the country, to benefit.

If you’re a foreign owner of rental property in the US, you must pay 35% tax on ‘ordinary income’ and from 15% to 20% on ‘capital gains’. With the tax reform, if the ‘corporate tax’ is reduced to 20%, many of these families could channel their investments through companies and reduce their income tax to 20% rather than 35%. As we see it, tax reform will not only encourage companies in the US to be more competitive, but will also attract foreign investment,” concludes Eduardo.

David Hawa (Robeco): “We Use Tactical Allocation in Contingent Convertible Bonds”

| Por Meritxell Sedo | 0 Comentarios

In today’s credit markets, it is essential to have a defined roadmap, in which you can establish where you are in the economic cycle, how much risk you want to take and what you want to invest in, said David Hawa, Client Portfolio Manager of the Robeco Financial Institutions Bonds strategy, during the «2018 Kick-off Master class Seminar» that the asset management company of Dutch origin held in Palm Beach.

Fundamentals

In order to prepare its roadmap, Robeco analyzes the credit markets from three different perspectives, taking into account the fundamental, valuation, and technical factors.

Beginning with fundamentals, the 10-year US Treasury bond ended the year at 2.43%, the same performance level as it began the year. There was no volatility in the US sovereign bond market, nor was there any for German or Japanese bonds.

About inflation, in the United States the only component in the US with price growth is Owner Equivalent Rent. A trend that they hope will be reversed as inflation begins to gain relevance. Meanwhile, in Europe, all the components of the European GDP are growing, which, according to Robeco, is very positive because it means that loan default levels are decreasing.

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«With the European Central Bank’s official rate at levels of -0.4% and the German two-year bond also in negative territory, investors have to pay to be holders of these bonds. When GDP growth was in deflation and there was no growth in Europe, it could be argued that these levels were going to be maintained, but with growth at between 2 and 2.5%, it’s logical to believe that normalization of interest rates in Europe is close, even without inflation. That’s why we believe that interest rates will increase. Comparing the German bond and the 2-year Treasury bond, the spread between the two has widened since the Federal Reserve began its cycle of increases. Sooner or later Draghi and his team will also have to begin to raise rates, let’s not forget that quantitative easing measures were launched in Europe due to the fear of deflation and now we have passed that phase. The fact that rates are going to start rising is good news for the income statements of European insurers and banks, whose margins are suffering in an environment of negative interest rates.»

In the case of the United States, if the level of unemployment continues to decline, inflation will be seen in wages: «If inflation returns in wages, the Fed could be pressured to accelerate the rate of interest rate hikes, something we particularly take into account as a potential risk. «

Valuations

In general terms, the aggregate of credit market valuations is much lower than its average. The behavior of European investment-grade corporate debt -excluding financials- was better than that of US corporate debt with BBB rating -also excluding financials-. That is why Robeco is committed to European credit as, with lower levels of leverage, it’s more attractive than US credit, especially now that the volatility seen in 2016 has disappeared.

«Taking into account the valuations presented by the different levels of subordination of the financial debt, some of the issues of contingent convertible bonds, the so-called CoCo’s, offer an adequate spread for their level of risk.

This type of debt supports a higher level of risk: if the Tier 1 capital level of the financial institution’s balance falls below the minimum pre-established by the issue, the bond is automatically converted into shares. But, some issues of these CoCo’s also reward the risk incurred with attractive spreads. It takes a very high level of experience in both transactional analysis and credit analysis to enter this market,» said Hawa.

According to Robeco, the valuations of European financial debt have greater attractiveness than European investment-grade corporate bonds. Specifically, subordinated debt issued by insurance companies offers a spread of 200 basis points, and Tier 2 bank debt a spread close to 120 to 130 basis points, as compared to less than 100 basis points offered by European investment-grade fixed income when excluding the finance sector.

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«The CSPP (Corporate Sector Purchase Program), the quantitative easing program established by the European Central Bank, can buy corporate bonds, but cannot buy bonds from financial institutions. Having earmarked public money to help financial institutions after the 2008 crisis, there was a popular clamor for the ECB’s money not to be reinvested back into banks. Therefore, there is a gap between the valuations of investment-grade European corporate bonds and European debt issued by financial institutions.»

Technical Factors

Central Banks’ monetary stimulus programs, which for years have been injecting a lot of liquidity into the market, are being phased out. The Fed has been working on that for some time, Bernanke was the first president who indicated his intention to withdraw the quantitative easing program in 2013. With the arrival of economic growth in Europe, Draghi should also initiate the rate hike, something that Robeco does not expect to happen until 2019.

«Another interesting issue for US investors is that, given the asymmetry created between the Fed’s rate hike and the ECB, the cost of hedging for non-US investors has increased due to the existing spreads between short-term rates in Europe and the US. Many of the Asian investors who bought US corporate bonds are now looking for greater exposure to corporate debt and European financial debt because of the high price of hedging costs. Another point in favor of the Robeco Financial Institutions Bonds strategy.»

The Assett Classes Invested in

Most issuers in which the strategy invests have an investment grade rating. However, as the risk increases, the specific ratings of some of those issues decrease, which is why at Robeco they have a highly experienced team of managers and analysts, where 90% of the professionals have over 17 years experience, having dealt successfully with both bullish and bearish markets.

As contrarian investors, they believe that the credit markets are inefficient and that they usually incur a higher or lower valuation than what actually corresponds to an issue according to its fundamentals.

As an example of this investment philosophy, Hawa cited the purchase of subordinated debt from financial institutions when it increases market volatility. «Following the Brexit referendum, bank spreads in the United Kingdom skyrocketed, but in terms of fundamentals there were new opportunities, on that occasion we bought Barclays issues. Another example was what happened in Catalonia. On this occasion, with the increase in political risk, we increased our bets in Sabadell and Caixabank, which have solid financial balances. We have also bought other national champions among European banks such as Santander, Nordea and Credit Agricole.»

Recently, the strategy has increased its allocation to insurance company bonds, which are achieving greater spreads than issues by national banking entities. Some examples would be Aviva, NN, Generali, Swiss Re, as well as other less known names such as the Dutch company Delta Lloyd, the Belgian company, Belfius, and the British company, Direct Line Group, totaling some 70 issuers, which maintain the fund’s quality bias.

«The quality of insurance companies and the banking sector has improved in terms of fundamentals, with the progression of deleveraging of the balance sheets after the implementation of Basel III and the European Central Bank forcing banks to redistribute their financial balances to prevent what happened in 2008. Loan default levels and risk asset volume has decreased, so that banks’ balance sheets have been strengthened, but it is important to know which names should not be included in the strategy. As the level of subordination and risk increases, a greater spread is obtained, but whether or not the risk incurred is being compensated, must be taken into account. We can obtain better spreads betting on Tier 2 issues from insurers and banks, than for some of the credits with additional Tier 1 subordination level. That is our responsibility, to search for how we are being compensated for the risk we are taking in the strategy,» Hawa said.

Regarding investment in contingent convertibles, despite having investment-grade at the issuer level, it is possible that the issue has a much lower rating. That is why the Robeco Financial Institutions Bonds strategy limits its position in CoCo’s. «We want the strategy to always maintain the degree of investment in aggregate terms, so we use a tactical allocation in contingent convertible bonds, not founding the achievement of a good performance on this type of asset. Since the launch of the strategy in 2014, we have always maintained the percentage of investment in CoCo’s below 15%, allowing us to keep the investment grade in an aggregate manner «.

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«In January 2016, Deustche Bank experienced a series of problems: the price of shares declined and there was a real concern that its issuance of Tier 1 contingent convertible bonds was unable to pay its coupon due to the ECB’s impositions. At that time, the spreads of UBS, Barclays, Erste Group or Raiffeisen Bank skyrocketed due to the fear of contagion. On the other hand, at Robeco we decided to buy those names whose fundamentals were attractive to us, based on transactional and liquidity risk. After this, spreads were strongly compressed, and we were rewarded for the risk of having these CoCo’s in position.

Currently, the total exposure to contingent convertible bonds exceeds 10% slightly, with a 9% exposure in the Tier 1 subordinated class and 2% in Tier 2,» concluded Hawa.

Santalucía destinará su acción social a la lucha contra el cáncer, enfermedades raras y discapacidad

| Por Beatriz Zúñiga | 0 Comentarios

Santalucía ha hecho público los resultados de la quinta edición del programa Tú Eliges a Quién Ayudamos, cuyo objetivo es que los empleados y clientes de la compañía decidan anualmente los proyectos sociales a los que quieren destinar los fondos de su acción social.

Más de 3.000 empleados del Grupo Santalucía han participado en el programa nominando y votando los proyectos con los que colaborará el próximo año. Entre los requisitos que debían reunir destaca que fueran proyectos que estuviesen relacionados con el cuidado de las personas y la protección familiar, en línea con la misión de la aseguradora, o que su ámbito de actuación fuese España.

En total se sometieron a votación 71 proyectos de diferentes temáticas como cáncer, enfermedades raras, colectivos en riesgo de exclusión, o daño cerebral y trastornos neurológicos. Tras el recuento de votos, las cinco entidades ganadoras han sido: la Asociación Española Contra el Cáncer (AECC), Cris Contra el Cáncer, la Federación Española de Enfermedades Raras (FEDER), la Fundación Aladin y la Fundación ADEMO.

Según ha indicado Emma Marín, directora de Comunicación y RSC de Santalucía, “el programa Tú Eliges a Quién Ayudamos, que ya va por su quinta convocatoria, refleja el compromiso de nuestra compañía con la sociedad, pero también con nuestros empleados y clientes a los que nos esforzamos por escuchar para percibir sus preocupaciones y permanecer cerca de ellos también desde la acción social de nuestra entidad”.

Premio Solidario del Seguro

En esta edición del año pasado, los clientes y seguidores de la aseguradora también han tenido la oportunidad de participar, a través de sus redes sociales, para decidir la entidad ganadora del Premio Solidario del Seguro en el que Santalucía colabora cada año.

En cinco días se recibieron más de 40.000 votos, situándose en primer lugar la Fundación Ademo, con un 44% de apoyos, dedicada a ofrecer recursos para que las personas con discapacidad intelectual y grandes necesidades puedan ejercer su derecho a un ocio individual y compartido en igualdad de condiciones.

Claves macroeconómicas para 2018

| Por Alicia Miguel | 0 Comentarios

Hemos cerrado un 2017 donde se observa que la economía mundial se va afianzando y el PIB mundial ha aumentado un 3,5% y se espera lo haga en un 3,8% en 2018. A medida que la economía global continúa una expansión coordinada, donde ni los emergentes ni las potencias avanzadas parecen registrar grandes síntomas de flaqueza, todo parece indicar que la expansión continuará su curso.

El desempeño económico global en 2017 parece haber sido el mejor desde 2011. Crecimiento acelerado en Estados Unidos, la zona del euro, China, Japón, Rusia y Brasil, impulsando el PIB en todo el mundo. La recuperación cíclica continúa, los niveles de crecimiento alcanzados en economías emergentes y en desarrollo grandes como Brasil, China y México, y también en varias economías avanzadas como Alemania, Canadá, España, Francia e Italia dan muestra de ello, y los indicadores de alta frecuencia apuntan al afianzamiento ininterrumpido de la actividad mundial, concretamente, la expansión del comercio internacional y la producción industrial.

Tanto Estados Unidos como Japón están beneficiándose de los fuertes mercados laborales y de la sólida rentabilidad corporativa mientras el crecimiento podría moderarse en Europa, ponderado por un euro más fuerte y la incertidumbre del Brexit y en China, donde la construcción de propiedades es probable que disminuya en respuesta a la caída de los precios. Sin embargo, las economías florecientes en Brasil, que aún se está recuperando de la recesión de 2015–16, y en India, donde las reformas económicas de los últimos 12 meses deberían comenzar a tener efecto, deberían ofrecer una compensación positiva.

Aspectos a considerar:

El número de países en recesión a lo largo y ancho del mundo tocará mínimos históricos a partir de este año. Esta situación está potenciada por el avance de economías avanzadas, como Estados Unidos, que se beneficiará de la reforma fiscal, así como de la Eurozona o Japón, donde sus respectivos bancos centrales continúan inyectando liquidez al sistema a través de sus estímulos y recompras de activos. A ello habría que sumar la recuperación que experimentan economías emergentes como Brasil o el ajuste menos abrupto que experimenta China.  

Si bien los riesgos a la baja continúan presentes, entre ellos geopolíticos, con Corea del Norte a la cabeza, las mayores amenazas para el crecimiento mundial son las crisis políticas.  

Las políticas macroeconómicas siguen siendo favorables al crecimiento, a pesar de una normalización gradual de la política monetaria. Europa seguirá sorprendiendo al alza. El crecimiento japonés continuará siendo sólido, aunque más lento que la mayoría. Por su parte, el crecimiento de China se mantendrá gracias a los estímulos al mismo tiempo que muchos emergentes, como Brasil, superan su depresión económica.  

Las grandes preocupaciones sobre la economía mundial en los últimos años, caída de los precios, la deflación, rendimiento negativo de los bonos y políticas fiscales excesivamente restrictivas, hoy lo son mucho menos.  

La inflación es estable y es probable que las medidas básicas permanezcan por debajo de los objetivos del Banco Central. Esperamos solo dos aumentos de la tasa de interés en Estados Unidos y Canadá, uno en Suiza, Australia y Nueva Zelanda, y la zona del euro, el Reino Unido y Japón para ver las tasas en espera en el año venidero. Entretanto, la flexibilización cuantitativa solo se retirará gradualmente en los Estados Unidos y la zona del euro, y continuará en Japón.  

¿Qué esperamos ver?  En conjunto, es probable que los gobiernos mantengan el gasto neto como una proporción del PIB en general sin cambios. La era de la austeridad en Europa ha terminado, y los cambios en los impuestos en Estados Unidos podrían aumentar los déficits allí. Prevemos un déficit fiscal global del 2,9% del PIB en 2018, bajando solo ligeramente del 3% actual.  

Es probable que veamos una política monetaria más estricta en 2018. Los bancos centrales han pasado casi una década comprando activos financieros en un intento de reducir las tasas de interés a largo plazo y aumentar el crecimiento económico y la inflación. Pero con el PIB global expandiéndose a su ritmo más rápido en seis años, muchos banqueros centrales creen que la economía es ahora lo suficientemente fuerte para empezar a retirar el estímulo.  Es más que probable que la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos reduzca el tamaño de su balance en menos del 10% a lo largo del año, y que aumente dos veces las tasas de interés. El Banco Central Europeo (BCE) está comprando actualmente 60.000 millones de euros de activos financieros cada mes, pero los reducirá a 30.000 millones mensuales de euros de enero a septiembre, y creemos que concluirá su programa de compra de activos a finales de año. Para finales de 2018, el Banco de Japón (BoJ) será el único banco central importante que haya dejado de proporcionar estímulos monetarios a la economía global, y en los bancos centrales agregados habrá proveedores netos, en lugar de demandantes netos, de activos financieros por primera vez desde el inicio de la crisis financiera.  En cualquier caso, el alcance del endurecimiento será limitado.

El proceso de endurecimiento cuantitativo de la Fed reducirá el tamaño de su balance solo modestamente, y los balances generales del banco central mundial seguirán creciendo de forma global gracias al estímulo del BCE y del BoJ.  Los banqueros centrales siguen siendo sensibles a los datos económicos. Solo buscan elevar las tasas de interés en respuesta a un crecimiento más robusto, y su posición podría interpretarse como un voto de confianza en la economía. Si el crecimiento global o la inflación se ralentizaran de nuevo, o si los mercados financieros experimentaran una dislocación significativa, esperaríamos que los bancos centrales se movieran a una posición más fácil.  

Es probable que la inflación permanezca contenida. A diferencia de las tasas de interés anteriores, la mayoría de los bancos centrales no están bajo presión para reducir la inflación, que ha permanecido obstinadamente por debajo de los objetivos. Si bien la política puede llegar a ser menos complaciente, no hay necesidad de que se vuelva restrictiva.

Desde el punto de vista político, con Rusia y China reafirmando su presencia en la escena mundial, Corea del Norte desarrollando armas nucleares, la inestabilidad política en Oriente Medio, el Reino Unido negociando su salida de la UE, la mitad de legislatura en Estados Unidos y las elecciones en Italia, Brasil, México, Rusia y Malasia, la escena política global se encuentra en un estado de incertidumbre que seguirá desarrollándose durante el año 2018.

La salida de Gran Bretaña de la UE, el separatismo catalán, las sanciones a Rusia y las modificaciones del Tratado de Libre Comercio de América del Norte (TLCAN) podrían tener efectos significativos en los mercados de Reino Unido, España, Rusia y México.

Por Aurelio García del Barrio, director del MBA con especialización en Finanzas del IEB