The global economy appears to be on the road to a V-shape recovery from the COVID-induced recession. Economic activity has been picking up in US and Europe but most rapidly in China, where our real-time indicators show output levels are back at pre-pandemic levels (1). At the same time, although monetary stimulus from central banks may be easing, it remains sufficient to support demand for now. This is not to say all is rosy.

Investors have no shortage of risks to contend with in the coming months – a resurgence of COVID cases, fears of a new round of lockdowns in Europe and the potential for a disputed US presidential election next month.

Taking all this into account, we have retained a neutral weighting in equities and bonds. Within stocks, we like emerging market and euro zone equities yet, due to the uncertainty regarding COVID-19 and the US election, we have sought some insurance by retaining an overweight on the safe-haven Swiss franc and gold.

Our business cycle indicators show global industrial activity is nearly back to pre-Covid levels, while spending on services is lagging.

In the US, the recovery is being fuelled by a strong housing market, where record low interest rates have helped push existing home sales to their highest levels in nearly 14 years.

We now expect a smaller contraction in output this year than our previous forecast, which was for a for -4.6 per cent drop. We see GDP growth recovering to 5.5 per cent next year – which is just under the 2019 trend projections.

There are concerns that the forthcoming lapse in US pandemic relief benefits and grants – or what has become known as the “fiscal cliff” – could stall the recovery. But we think the high level of savings among US households, which, as a proportion of net disposable income, hit a record 33 per cent earlier this year, should cushion any shock to the economy.

Recoveries in the euro zone and Japan are modest by comparison. In the euro zone, new restrictions to halt the resurgence in virus infections threaten to derail a recovery in the services industry while retail sales in Japan also remain weak.

Emerging market (EM) economies, led by China, are recovering strongly, thanks to improving global trade – which stands at just 10 per cent below pre-Covid levels. Our leading indicator for EM economic activity has turned positive on a three month basis for the first time this year, outperforming its developed world counterpart which is still in negative territory.

Our liquidity signals are positive for risky assets, with the volume of public and private money supply remaining at a record high of 28 per cent of GDP (2).

However, this is likely to represent the peak. Central banks are unlikely to boost monetary stimulus significantly from this point, which should squeeze stocks’ price-to-earnings multiples in the coming months.

What is more, bank lending standards have tightened to levels not seen since the global financial crisis. In the US, for example, a net 71 per cent of banks surveyed by the US Federal Reserve have tightened their lending standards, the highest percentage since 2008. This could spell trouble for financial markets at a time when the coordination between central banks and governments is weakening.

Our valuation gauges continue to show equity prices are stretched, even after the recent fall in stock markets.

The expansion of equity multiples – responsible for almost all of the total return of equities this year – appears to be over.

Historically, price-earnings (PE) ratios have had a close relationship with real yields (see chart), where the PE tends to rise when real yields fall. However, real yields, using inflation-linked bond yields as a proxy, seem to have bottomed out at a record low of -1 per cent in the US. What is more, the US Federal Reserve is unlikely to turn much more dovish than it is now.

Investors therefore are unlikely to enjoy the same level of equity gains from the multiple expansion in the coming months. Our models point to an underperformance of stocks to bonds of 5-7 per cent over the next 12 months.

Our technical and sentiment indicators have turned positive for risky assets, partly thanks to seasonality – the tendency for equities to rally towards the end of the year. Although mutual fund data show investors bought USD26 billion of equities last week, the highest weekly amount this year, investor positioning in stocks is not excessively high.

That said, we are mindful of growing political risks surrounding the November US presidential election. Judging from Wall Street’s volatility options pricing, investors are beginning to factor in the possibility of a contested election in November and political turmoil early next year.

Equities regions and sectors: sticking with the emerging world

Equities suffered a turbulent start to the autumn. The enormous rally that followed the pandemic lows left some expensive stocks vulnerable to correction. But even after selloffs in some formerly high-flying sectors, not least tech, valuations remain expensive. Which is why we stick to our defensive tilt on sectors and remain neutral on the pricey US stock market and IT sector.

The huge expansion of price-to-earnings ratios since March has come to an end as real bond yields have stabilised and as PEs have risen far beyond the levels usually seen at this stage of the investment cycle – 50 per cent above on a 12-month forward basis for the S&P 500 and 25 per cent for global equities.

US equities look particularly expensive. Current valuations – stocks are trading at 23 times future earnings – can only be sustained if trend growth is unchanged, profit margins remain stable at current high levels and bond yields stay at 1 per cent forever. Some long-term valuation metrics – such as market capitalisation to GDP and price to sales ratios – for the US equities are above or close to all-time highs. 

Some of that rich valuation of US stocks is reflected in the extreme rating of cyclicals relative to defensive stocks. This has been supported by positive economic surprises, but this improvement appears to be levelling off (see Fig. 3).

How the coming months pan out will boil down to two key factors – the outcome of the US election and how much fresh stimulus governments and central banks are willing and able to provide. Complicating matters is whether the recovery is self-sustaining. There are plenty of indications that economies are in relatively robust good shape. industrial production has been strengthening, trade is largely back to where it was and in many corners of the world. What’s more, strength in retail sales in the US and China belies some of the gloom of sentiment surveys.

All of which is to say that central bankers will be watching closely for how much or, indeed, whether any more stimulus will be needed for fear of overegging the recovery if the coming wave of Covid proves to be less damaging than feared.

Equities have so far been supported by falling real bond yields and an acceleration of growth momentum – but with this sweet spot slowly disappearing, we stick to a neutral approach to risk taking a barbell strategy of quality defensives like Swiss equities, staples and pharma and attractive cyclicals like euro zone and emerging market equities and materials, while avoiding low-growth markets and sectors like the UK, financials and utilities.

Please click here for more information on Pictet AM’s Investment Outlook.

Notes:

(1) Daily average of coal consumption, traffic congestion & property sales
(2) Total Liquidity flow in the US, China, euro zone, Japan and the UK calculated as Policy plus Private Liquidity flows, as % of nominal GDP, using current-USD GDP weights

Information, opinions and estimates contained in this document reflect a judgment at the original date of publication and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those presented herein.

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