Los movimientos de montaña rusa de los mercados a menudo crean una imagen engañosa de lo que realmente está pasando en la economía subyacente. El crecimiento mundial ha ido disminuyendo durante dos años debido a la caída de las inversiones chinas, la guerra comercial y la fortaleza del dólar estadounidense. A principios de 2020, la volatilidad del mercado era muy baja y las valoraciones ridículamente complacientes en los mercados de riesgo, por lo que veíamos un retroceso a la vuelta de la esquina.
Tan pronto como el COVID-19 llegó a China, el frágil margen de error para el crecimiento mundial se rompió y fue inevitable un colapso del mercado. Los conocidos riesgos de liquidez en los mercados mundiales no hicieron sino aumentar nuestras preocupaciones. Sin embargo, de ninguna manera esperábamos que se pusiera tan mal. Cuatro meses después de los primeros casos en China, el mundo es un lugar muy diferente. Casi sin excepción, el mundo desarrollado se ha cerrado, ha bajado la persiana, ha imprimido dinero, ha escrito cheques en blanco y ha seguido los pasos de los chinos.
De la V a la U
La mayoría de los mercados desarrollados se han visto recompensados, a corto plazo, por el cierre de sus economías y, si se traza la volatilidad del mercado, esta ha caído casi en línea con la disminución de nuevos casos de coronavirus. Pero por supuesto, todavía hay muchas cosas que podrían salir mal.
Claramente, las reivindicaciones por el desempleo podrían seguir aumentando más allá de lo que los políticos están preparados. La mayor amenaza, sin embargo, tal vez sea la desacreditación de la recuperación en forma de V. La causa más probable de esto es un gran aumento de los casos después de que termine el confinamiento, con la necesidad del mercado de incluir en los precios los cierres hasta que se encuentre una vacuna o se alcance la inmunidad de rebaño. Otra podría ser un esfuerzo chapucero y descoordinado para reabrir las economías, lo que parece posible en algunas zonas dada la forma en la que se manejó el brote.
Es posible que los responsables políticos de los mercados desarrollados hayan utilizado en exceso el «whatever it takes» de Draghi, pero lo han respaldado con medidas extraordinarias. Si pueden evitarlo, ningún buen negocio se hundirá y los mercados podrán seguir observando el descenso del crecimiento. Nuestra hipótesis de base sigue siendo una recuperación durante los próximos dos trimestres que podría provocar un crecimiento negativo en forma de U, en línea con el que el mercado está empezando a valorar. Los problemas de solvencia y el sufrimiento prolongado en el extremo más arriesgado del espectro van a producirse claramente, pero hay ganancias en los buenos activos dada la reacción política y la cierta claridad que estamos obteniendo en el camino que nos queda.
¿Un desafío emergente?
La preocupación más inmediata reside en los mercados emergentes: su endeudamiento externo en dólares les confiere una mayor fragilidad y, al igual que los mercados desarrollados, necesitan apoyo financiero, pero de fuentes externas.
El capital ha salido de los fondos de mercados emergentes: el FMI estima que la cifra es de 90.000 millones de dólares. Algunos de los principales países emergentes han recortado los tipos de interés de forma agresiva e incluso han intentado una flexibilización cuantitativa (QE), lo que ha provocado un descenso de su tipo de cambio. Los mercados emergentes, en particular las empresas, se han atiborrado de deuda estadounidense desde la última crisis y, dado que representan alrededor del 60% del PIB, la recuperación mundial será tibia en el mejor de los casos. Esto requerirá un aumento masivo de los préstamos del FMI, que parece estar por llegar.
¿Qué hacemos ahora?
Entramos en esta crisis con una cartera defensiva de gran liquidez que nos permitió evitar lo peor de la caída. La respuesta a esta pandemia, sin embargo, ha contribuido a crear las condiciones necesarias para un rebote reflacionario a medio plazo. La Fed está imprimiendo dólares en grandes cantidades y haciendo lo posible para enviarlos a donde se necesiten. Esperamos que haga aún más y parece probable alguna forma de control explícito de la curva de rendimiento. Esto podría provocar la debilidad del dólar a medida que la represión financiera se pone en marcha, especialmente cuando muchas naciones están implementado el tan esperado estímulo fiscal. Al final, los estímulos deben pagarse y es probable que la inflación sea la forma más políticamente conveniente de hacerlo.
Seguimos considerando los bonos gubernamentales una buena inversión para los próximos meses, pero su rendimiento real podría sufrir si los bancos centrales tienen éxito. En este caso, tenemos muchas opciones para obtener retornos, al poseer bonos corporativos, valores protegidos contra la inflación y bonos extranjeros sin cobertura. La reducción de la sensibilidad de la cartera a los tipos de interés también es una opción, si los fundamentales económicos comienzan a repuntar.
Recientemente, al aumentar la tensión en el mercado y flaquear la liquidez, incrementamos nuestra exposición a activos de riesgo, manteniendo al mismo tiempo la duración. La liquidez de la cartera sigue estando en niveles altos y tenemos un «control de la curva de rendimiento» de facto en todos los mercados desarrollados, ya que los bancos centrales tratan de controlar cada vez más partes del mercado crediticio. Por lo tanto, la cartera ha aumentado su asignación a crédito corporativo de alta calificación de forma selectiva.
Nuestro proceso nos permite la máxima flexibilidad en cualquier entorno de inversión en el que nos encontremos; por consiguiente, no creemos que sea necesario arriesgarse con inversiones ilíquidas para obtener altos rendimientos, especialmente cuando la formulación de políticas se adentra en terreno desconocido.
Tribuna de Nick Wall, co-gestor del Merian Global Dynamic Bond Fund
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and may not be repeated. Investment involves risk. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the amount originally invested. Because of this, an investor is not certain to make a profit on an investment and may lose money. Exchange rates may cause the value of overseas investments to rise or fall.
IN AUSTRIA, FRANCE, ITALY, LUXEMBOURG, PORTUGAL AND SWEDEN: This communication is issued by Merian Global Investors (Europe) Limited (“Merian Global Investors Europe”), The Wilde-Suite G01, The Wilde, 53 Merrion Square South, Dublin 2, D02 PR63, Ireland. Merian Global Investors Europe is registered in Ireland (company number: 536049) and is authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland (number: C181816).
IN THE UNITED KINGDOM AND ALL OTHER EEA COUNTRIES: This communication is issued by Merian Global Investors (UK) Limited (“Merian Global Investors UK”), Millennium Bridge House, 2 Lambeth Hill, London, United Kingdom, EC4P 4WR. Merian Global Investors UK is registered in England and Wales (number: 02949554) and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 171847).
This communication provides information relating to Merian Global Dynamic Bond Fund (the “Fund”), which is a sub-fund of Merian Global Investors Series plc. Merian Global Investors Series plc is an investment company with variable capital established as an umbrella fund with segregated liability between sub-funds which is authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland pursuant to the European Communities (Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities) Regulations 2011, as amended. Registered in Ireland under registration number 271517. Registered office: 33 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2, Ireland.
Merian Global Investors Europe and Merian Global Investors UK are collectively known as «Merian Global Investors».
Merian Global Investors uses all reasonable skill and care in compiling the information in this communication which is accurate only on the date of this communication. You should not rely upon the information in this communication in making investment decisions. Nothing in this communication constitutes advice or personal recommendation. An investor should read the Key Investor Information Document(s) (“KIID”) before investing in any sub-fund of Merian Global Investors Series plc. The KIID and the prospectus can be obtained from www.merian.com in English and other required languages.
Certain paying and/or information agents have been appointed in connection with public distribution of the shares of Merian Global Investors Series plc in certain jurisdictions. Shares are sold by prospectus only. The prospectus, KIID and/or other relevant offering documentation is available free of charge at:
Austria: Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG, Belvedere 1, 1010 Wien, Austria.
Belgium: CACEIS Belgium SA, B-1000 Brussels, Avenue du Port 86 C b320, Brussels.
Germany: GerFIS – German Fund Information Service UG (Haftungsbeschränkt), Zum Eichhagen 4, 21382 Brietlingen, Germany.
France: BNP Paribas Securities Services, Les Grands Moulins de Pantin, 9 rue du Debarcadère 93500 Pantin, France.
Hong Kong: Merian Global Investors (Asia Pacific) Limited, Unit 2, 5/F Two Chinachem Central, 26 Des Voeux Road Central, Hong Kong.
Italy: Allfunds Bank S.A.U., Milan Branch, Via Bocchetto, 6, 20123 Milano, Italia; Societe Generale Securities Services S.p.A, Via Benigno Crespi 19A – MAC2, Milan and BNP Paribas Securities Services, Piazza Lina Bo Bardi No.3, Milan.
Luxembourg: BNP Paribas Securities Services, Luxembourg Branch, 33 rue de Gasperich, L-5826, Grand Duchy of Luxembourg.
Sweden: Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB («SEB»), Kungsträdgårdsgatan 8, SE-106 40, Stockholm, Sweden
Switzerland: First Independent Fund Services Ltd., Klausstrasse 33, CH-8008 Zurich is the Swiss representative and BNP Paribas Securities Services, Paris, succursale de Zurich, Selnaustrasse 16, CH-8002 Zurich is the Swiss paying agent.
Taiwan: Capital Gateway Securities Investment Consulting Enterprise, 9F/9F-1, No. 171, Songde Road, Xinyi District, Taipei City, Taiwan, R.O.C.
United Kingdom: Merian Global Investors (UK) Limited, Millennium Bridge House, 2 Lambeth Hill, London, United Kingdom, EC4P 4WR. The Fund is recognised by the FCA.
Other: Merian Global Investors Series plc, c/o Citibank Europe plc, 1 North Wall Quay, Dublin 1, Ireland.
In Denmark, this material is only intended for the exclusive use of Danish eligible counterparties or professional investors. Danish retail investors may not invest in the sub-funds mentioned in the material.
In Spain, Merian Global Investors Series plc is registered with the Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores (“CNMV”) under number 301. Merian Global Investors UK is registered under number 2479. The prospectus, KIID and the latest economic reports can be obtained at no cost from registered distributors as per the list available on the CNMV web page.
In the Republic of Finland, this communication is not intended to constitute a public offer or an advertisement of securities.
In Italy, this material is for the exclusive use of “professional clients or professional investors” (as defined in Legislative Decree no 58/1998 by reference to Annex 3 of CONSOB Regulation no. 20307 of 2018) and its dissemination to retail investors/clients is prohibited.
In Luxembourg, this information does not constitute, under any circumstances, an offer or an invitation to purchase or sell shares in Luxembourg and does not and is not intended to constitute an offer of shares in the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg. It does not constitute legal, accounting, or tax advice.
The Fund may be more than 35% invested in Government and public securities. These can be issued by other countries and Governments. Your attention is drawn to the stated investment policy which is set out in the Fund’s prospectus.
This communication provides information relating to Merian Global Dynamic Bond Fund (the “Fund”), which is a sub-fund of Merian Global Investors Series plc. Merian Global Investors Series plc is an investment company with variable capital established as an umbrella fund with segregated liability between sub-funds which is authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland pursuant to the European Communities (Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities) Regulations 2011, as amended. Registered in Ireland under registration number 271517. Registered office: 33 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2, Ireland.
This communication has been prepared for general information only. It does not purport to be all-inclusive or contain all of the information which a proposed investor may require in order to make a decision as to whether to invest in the Fund. Nothing in this communication constitutes a recommendation suitable or appropriate to a recipient’s individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation. No investment decisions should be made without first reviewing the offering document (including the risk factors) and the key fact statement of the Fund (if applicable) which can be obtained from www.merian.com. This communication has not been reviewed by the SFC.
This communication is issued by Merian Global Investors (Asia Pacific) Limited. Merian Global Investors (Asia Pacific) Limited is licensed to carry out Type 1 and Type 4 regulated activities in Hong Kong.
The Fund may be more than 35% invested in Government and public securities. These can be issued by other countries and Governments. Your attention is drawn to the stated investment policy which is set out in the Fund’s prospectus.
This communication provides information relating to a fund known as Merian Global Dynamic Bond Fund (the “Fund”), which is a sub-fund of Merian Global Investors Series plc. This communication is issued by Merian Global Investors (Singapore) Pte Limited, which is not licensed or regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (“MAS”). Merian Global Investors (Singapore) Pte Limited is affiliated to Merian Global Investors (UK) Limited. Merian Global Investors (UK) Limited (“Merian Global Investors”), Millennium Bridge House, 2 Lambeth Hill, London, United Kingdom, EC4P 4WR. Merian Global Investors is registered in England and Wales (number: 02949554) and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 171847) but is not licensed or regulated by MAS.
The Fund may be more than 35% invested in Government and public securities. These can be issued by other countries and Governments. Your attention is drawn to the stated investment policy which is set out in the Fund’s prospectus.
The Fund has been approved for distribution to non-qualified investors in or from Switzerland by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA (“FINMA”). First Independent Fund Services Ltd., Klausstrasse 33, CH-8008 Zurich is the Swiss representative and BNP Paribas Securities Services, Paris, succursale de Zurich, Selnaustrasse 16, CH-8002 Zurich is the Swiss paying agent in relation to the shares of the Fund (“Shares”) distributed in or from Switzerland. Accordingly, the Shares and the relevant fund documents and any offering material relating to the Fund and/or the Shares may be distributed in or from Switzerland to non-qualified investors. In respect of the Shares distributed in or from Switzerland, the place of jurisdiction is at the registered office of the Swiss representative.
Copies of the prospectus, the memorandum and articles of association, the key investor information documents as well as the annual and semi-annual reports of the Fund may be obtained free of charge from the Swiss representative, First Independent Fund Services Ltd., Klausstrasse 33, 8008 Zurich, Switzerland.
US Non-Resident / Accredited Investors & LatAm:
This communication is issued by Merian Global Investors (UK) Limited (“Merian Global Investors”), Millennium Bridge House, 2 Lambeth Hill, London, United Kingdom, EC4P 4WR. Merian Global Investors is registered in England and Wales (number: 02949554) and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 171847).
This communication provides information relating to Merian Global Dynamic Bond Fund (the “Fund”), which is a sub-fund of Merian Global Investors Series plc. Merian Global Investors Series plc is an investment company with variable capital established as an umbrella fund with segregated liability between sub-funds which is authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland pursuant to the European Communities (Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities) Regulations 2011, as amended. Registered in Ireland under registration number 271517. Registered office: 33 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2, Ireland.
Merian Global Investors uses all reasonable skill and care in compiling the information in this communication which is accurate only on the date of this communication. You should not rely upon the information in this communication in making investment decisions. Nothing in this communication constitutes advice or personal recommendation.
Merian Global Investors Series Plc is not registered as an investment company in the United States under the U.S. Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended, and its shares are not registered under the U.S Securities Act of 1933, as amended (“Securities Act”). Shares of Merian Global Investors Series plc Funds funds are not available for purchase by “US Persons” as that term is defined under Regulation S of the Securities Act. Under certain circumstances shares may be purchased by persons that reside in the United States that are “accredited investors” as that term is defined in Rule 501(a) of Regulation D, as promulgated pursuant to the Securities Act. The information contained in this document is not intended to be an offer of shares and is for informational purposes only. The information provided in this document is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in the United States, unless such person is an accredited investor and can reasonably verify their status as such, or in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation, or which would subject any of the funds described herein, any member of the Merian Global Investors Group or any of their products or services to any registration, licensing or other authorisation requirement within such jurisdiction or country. This communication is only intended for and will only be distributed to persons resident in jurisdictions where such distribution or availability would not be contrary to local laws or regulations. In particular, the shares are not for distribution in the US or to US persons, unless such person is an accredited investor and can reasonably verify their accredited investor status.
The Fund may be more than 35% invested in Government and public securities. These can be issued by other countries and Governments. Your attention is drawn to the stated investment policy which is set out in the Fund’s prospectus.
MGI 04_20_0066
