Desde el punto de vista de un inversor en renta fija, 2019 fue mucho más emocionante de lo esperado. Hace un año asumíamos que la Fed ejecutaría otras dos subidas de tipos y que el BCE rebajaría unos cuantos puntos básicos su tipo de depósito negativo. Las cosas fueron bien distintas: El presidente de la Fed, Jerome Powell, redujo los tipos tres veces, y el BCE aflojó la política de forma significativa.
El cambio de rumbo de la Fed resultó ser explosivo en los mercados. La rebaja de la tensión política también pudo ser un factor, al dejar de empeorar la disputa comercial entre EE.UU. y China. Los resultados fueron claros: subidas en los mercados de bonos y acciones, impulsadas, más que nada, por una política monetaria relajada.
Pero tras este año dramático y sorprendente la pregunta es qué puede pasar en 2020. Después de tomar lo que podría considerarse un importante paso preventivo para evitar la debilidad económica, la Fed puede ser ahora más dependiente de los datos. Dada la evolución económica que esperamos, es probable que esto signifique que los tipos de interés permanecerán estáticos en EE.UU. y probablemente también en Europa, aunque no descartamos completamente movimientos al alza o a la baja.
Un aumento significativo de la inflación en EE.UU., que podría ser generado por aranceles (más altos) sobre las importaciones chinas, llevaría a un aumento de los tipos. Un recorte o recortes de los tipos podría seguir a otros signos de debilidad económica. Y los riesgos a la baja están ahí.
Los líderes corporativos están nerviosos. Si se detienen en las inversiones de capital y el ímpetu fiscal se desvanece -como es de esperar-, el crecimiento puede sufrir. Los comicios que se acercan no harán dudar a la Fed, ya ha actuado en años electorales en varias ocasiones en el pasado. Sin embargo, la propia campaña podría causar grandes fluctuaciones en el mercado.
En general, el entorno de bajos tipos de interés parece listo para continuar. Los bancos centrales probablemente continúen brindando apoyo a través de sus renovados programas de compras y no esperamos una recesión, ni una escalada en la disputa comercial entre EE.UU. y China, ni un Brexit duro. Tampoco esperamos que los rendimientos de los bonos gubernamentales vuelvan a sus mínimos de 2019. Cualquiera que desee generar retornos en 2020 debe estar preparado para asumir riesgos.
¿Qué puede significar esto concretamente para las distintas regiones y tipos de bonos? Esperamos poco de los bonos gubernamentales. En Europa y Japón, prevemos que los rendimientos totales se aproximen a cero; después de todo, ya no deberíamos esperar que los precios de los bonos suban como lo hicieron en 2019. Incluso los del Tesoro estadounidense solo parecen atractivos para los inversores en dólares.
Sin embargo, los mercados emergentes, donde creemos que el rendimiento total de los bonos gubernamentales podría superar el 5% en dólares, se están volviendo más interesantes. Se están beneficiando de los tipos de interés más bajos de EE.UU. y de la perspectiva de que el dólar no se fortalezca más. Además, sus bancos centrales todavía tienen margen de maniobra para apoyar las economías si es necesario.
Grado de inversión frente a high yield
Los bonos corporativos con grado de inversión de Europa y EE.UU. se han movido de manera similar: prácticamente nada. En high yield, sin embargo, ha habido algunos movimientos astutos a medida que los inversores se diferencian más.
Para los bonos corporativos, un crecimiento económico moderado y una baja inflación son beneficiosos: no hay alternativa a ellos dado que los rendimientos de los bonos gubernamentales son bajos o incluso negativos; y el miedo a perder oportunidades hace que los inversores sigan acudiendo a ellos con la esperanza de otro repunte de los bonos.
Ajustados al riesgo, actualmente consideramos que los bonos corporativos en euros con grado de inversión son particularmente atractivos. Además, vemos oportunidades en otros sub-segmentos, como en el high yield europeo, en Estados Unidos y en mercados emergentes. Los bonos europeos deberían ser respaldados por las compras del BCE, mientras que en EE.UU. las preocupaciones previas sobre la calidad de los balances no se han visto confirmadas.
En cualquier caso, no ha tenido un lugar el paso de los bonos BBB al segmento high yield. Lo que vemos desde el verano, sin embargo, es una ampliación de la brecha entre los bonos high yield con calificaciones más bajas (CCC) y aquellos con mejor rating. Esto se debe a la representación desproporcionada de los títulos energéticos en el high yield estadounidense y a que los bonos emitidos por empresas con modelos de negocio difíciles (por ejemplo, la venta minorista clásica) se están rechazando más que en el pasado. Esperamos que el diferencial entre los emisores aumente todavía más.
Somos conscientes de que nuestros pronósticos de rendimiento son poco emocionantes. Sin embargo, coinciden con nuestras perspectivas económicas y políticas para 2020. Sabemos que las elecciones presidenciales en EE.UU., el Brexit o incluso puntos calientes de la política como Irán o Hong Kong pueden hacer que nuestro escenario central no se produzca. Pero, como refleja el gráfico, históricamente, solo en épocas de política monetaria restrictiva o de una inflación en fuerte aumento, los bonos gubernamentales estadounidenses han registrado rendimientos negativos. Tampoco esperamos que eso suceda.
Tribuna de Joern Wasmund, jefe de renta fija en DWS
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