La pandemia del coronavirus ha golpeado la economía mundial en un momento crítico desde la perspectiva de la ASG. Las conversaciones sobre el clima en Madrid a finales del 2019 terminaron en decepción y todas las miradas estaban puestas en la cumbre climática de la COP26 en el Reino Unido este noviembre para volver a poner en marcha las ambiciones climáticas de París. Ahora, se ha retrasado hasta 2021.
El brote de COVID-19 también se ha producido en un momento en el que los mercados energéticos mundiales ya estaban en crisis. El colapso del precio del petróleo desencadenado por una pelea por la cuota de mercado entre Arabia Saudita y Rusia en febrero se ha visto ahora agravado por una caída más pronunciada de la demanda1. Esto tiene consecuencias para la energía limpia, los biocombustibles y las tecnologías de reciclaje de plásticos.
Este año también debería ser testigo de la puesta en marcha del Plan de Acción de la UE y del Pacto Verde Europeo. Con los gobiernos naturalmente enfocados en apoyar los sistemas de salud y preservar la vida humana, los responsables políticos deben cumplir su decisión de mantener y acelerar los esfuerzos para abordar la crisis climática y las cuestiones más amplias de ASG.
Hemos sido testigos de un repunte extremo en la volatilidad, con la del mercado de renta variable volviendo a los niveles que se vieron por última vez en la crisis financiera mundial2. Los pronósticos de crecimiento global sugieren que veremos la mayor contracción trimestral de la actividad económica desde la década de 1940 y las emisiones globales de CO2 de este año podrían caer hasta un 5%.3
Si bien los bancos centrales y los gobiernos han respondido rápidamente a esta crisis en términos de recortes de los tipos de interés, nuevos programas de flexibilización cuantitativa y paquetes de estímulo fiscal; a nosotros, como a muchos, nos preocupa que cuando llegue la recuperación económica el crecimiento de las emisiones de CO2 se dispare como lo hizo en 2010.
Por si esto no fuera suficiente, tenemos otro problema social del que preocuparnos aún más. Los mayores ganadores financieros desde la crisis de hace 10 años han sido los superricos, ayudados por la rápida inflación de los precios de los activos, como en el sector inmobiliario y la renta variable4. No podemos permitirnos que ese sea el resultado de esta crisis. Esperamos que abordar la desigualdad se convierta en una prioridad aún mayor para los gobiernos. En nuestra opinión, las empresas deben desempeñar su papel y no dejar que los contribuyentes paguen esta factura una vez más.
Las implicaciones macroeconómicas
Creemos que la crisis del coronavirus tendrá efectos profundos y duraderos en el mercado de ASG, que se encuentra en rápido desarrollo. En nuestra opinión, la pandemia está ilustrando la materialidad financiera de la ASG. También hemos visto que, en los primeros días de esta crisis, los índices ASG del MSCI superaron al resto.5
En el actual período de extrema volatilidad del mercado, el análisis del MSCI muestra que la mayor parte de este rendimiento superior se ha reflejado en los índices ASG que infraponderan el sector de la energía y tienen asignaciones sobredimensionadas a la atención sanitaria y la tecnología, que están en la primera línea de la lucha contra la pandemia.5
También vemos algunas tendencias interesantes cuando miramos los flujos de fondos. A medida que el virus se propagó de Asia a Europa y luego a Estados Unidos, los flujos han salido de Europa y Estados Unidos y, ahora, a medida que la confianza está regresando poco a poco a los mercados asiáticos, los flujos de fondos están volviendo a China y Japón6. Esto concuerda con el rendimiento relativo de los mercados de renta variable: hemos visto que el mercado de valores chino ha superado a otros en marzo. 7
Sin embargo, incluso con estas nuevas entradas, las participaciones actuales en China son más de una desviación estándar inferior al promedio de los últimos cinco años, lo que implica que hay un margen significativo para nuevas entradas.8 También nos alienta la recuperación de la confianza en las compañías manufactureras chinas en marzo9: representa el mejor nivel desde septiembre de 2017 y encierra algún indicio de esperanza de que esta recuperación del sector empresarial pueda repetirse en Europa a mediados de año.
Tribuna de Michael Lewis, responsable de investigación temática ASG en DWS, y Murray Birt, estratega sénior ASG de la gestora
1. Bloomberg Finance LP (April 1, 2020)
2. CBOE (April 1, 2020)
3. Bloomberg (March 27, 2020). Economists see US facing worst ever quarterly contraction
4. UN Department of Economic and Special Affairs (DESA) (January 2018). World Inequality Report 2018
5. MSCI Inc (March 2020).
6. EPFR Global, HSBC calculations (March 2020)
7. Bloomberg Finance LP (Data as of March 27, 2020)
8. EPFR Global, HSBC calculations (March 2020)
9. National Bureau of Statistics China (March 2020)
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