El impacto de la COVID-19 ha variado ampliamente entre distintos segmentos de los mercados inmobiliarios industriales y minoristas de Estados Unidos.
La pandemia, única en un siglo, ha generado y acelerado grandes cambios en el uso de los bienes inmuebles; y quizás, no resulte sorprendente que esos cambios estén creando ganadores y perdedores. Un ejemplo es el comercio electrónico y su efecto en los inmuebles comerciales e industriales, como muestra nuestro ‘Gráfico de la Semana’. Históricamente muy correlacionados, los edificios industriales estadounidenses – principalmente, almacenes – experimentaron una rentabilidad total sin apalancamiento del 11,8% en 2020, mientras que los centros comerciales obtuvieron una rentabilidad del -7,5% 1.
Las compras online existían mucho antes de la COVID-19, sin embargo, el confinamiento impulsó su crecimiento a toda marcha: el comercio electrónico se disparó un 37% interanual en el tercer trimestre de 2020, pasando de alrededor del 13% al 16% de las ventas minoristas de la noche a la mañana prácticamente 2. No es de extrañar que hayamos visto 45 grandes quiebras de comercios minoristas en 2020, casi el doble de las producidas en todo 2019.
Este hecho ha supuesto un gran golpe para los centros comerciales de Estados Unidos, donde se suelen encontrar un gran número de grandes almacenes y tiendas de ropa expuestos al riesgo. Al mismo tiempo, ha sido una bendición para los bienes raíces industriales, fundamentales para el rápido procesamiento de los pedidos y devoluciones – el doble que en compras en tiendas físicas – ligados al comercio electrónico. Estas tendencias se han visto amplificadas además por el trasvase del dólar del consumidor de los servicios a los bienes, impulsado por la COVID-19.
Creemos que estos cambios aún tienen mucho camino por recorrer. Algunos centros comerciales de alta calidad sobrevivirán y prosperarán en el entorno post-COVID-19, probablemente evolucionando hacia destinos de entretenimiento. Sin embargo, continuarán luchando contra el comercio electrónico. En nuestro caso, nos decantamos por los destinos comerciales ligados a servicios de alimentación. A corto plazo, también se enfrentan a retos de inquilinos como gimnasios y restaurantes que se han visto obligados a cerrar o a restringir su capacidad como resultado de la crisis sanitaria. Pero a largo plazo, su combinación de necesidades y servicios debería ser más resistente frente al comercio electrónico. De hecho, es probable que la demanda de este tipo de activos aumente, sobre todo en zonas geográficas que están experimentando un crecimiento demográfico. Como siempre en el sector inmobiliario, la ubicación importa.
En el ámbito industrial, el sector podría en algún momento llegar a estar sobredimensionado y sobrevalorado, pero todavía no hay señales de ello. Por ahora, confiamos en que las perspectivas de los inmuebles industriales estadounidenses siguen siendo brillantes.
Creemos que nuestras observaciones sobre el mercado inmobiliario estadounidense también aplican en otras regiones.
* rendimiento total (cuatro trimestres anteriores)
Fuente: NCREIF y DWS Investment GmbH, a fecha del 12/31/20
1. NCREIF as of December 2020
2. Census Bureau as of September 2020
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Por Magdalena Martínez