¿Qué comprar? Bonos. ¿Cuándo? Ahora.
La normalización de las tasas de interés nos ha devuelto a un mundo en el que una variedad mucho mayor de escenarios puede generar rendimientos positivos para los bonos.
Introducción a la inversión de ingresos
La inversión de ingresos es una estrategia que tiene como objetivo generar un flujo constante de ingresos de las inversiones, generalmente a través de pagos de intereses o dividendos.
A menudo, este tipo de estrategia es favorecida por los inversores que priorizan el flujo de efectivo regular.
Las inversiones de ingresos incluyen una variedad de activos, como bonos, acciones que pagan dividendos, y fondos de inversión en bienes raíces (REIT). Si bien la inversión de ingresos puede ofrecer menos potencial para ganancias de capital significativas, puede proporcionar una fuente confiable de ingresos y ayudar a diversificar una cartera de inversiones.
Tipos de inversiones de ingresos
Existen tres tipos más comunes de inversiones de ingresos:
Bonos: valores de renta fija emitidos por corporaciones, gobiernos o municipios que pagan una tasa de interés predeterminada a los inversionistas.
Acciones que pagan dividendos: acciones de empresas que pagan una parte de sus ganancias a los accionistas en forma de dividendos.
Fideicomisos de inversión en bienes raíces (REIT): empresas que poseen y administran propiedades generadoras de ingresos, como edificios de oficinas, centros comerciales y complejos de apartamentos.
Oportunidades de inversión de ingresos en 2023
Tomando como guía el régimen inflacionario de la década de 1970, creemos que la renta fija puede presentar una de las mejores oportunidades para los inversores en la actualidad. Cuando las tasas de interés son súper bajas, un aumento en las tasas puede causar mucho daño a los bonos, tal como vimos en 2022, que fue el peor año para los bonos desde 1976.
Sin embargo, al observar la segunda mitad de la década de 1970, las tasas aumentaron del 5% al 10%, pero los bonos siguieron ganando dinero. Hay dos razones para esto. Primero, un aumento en las tasas de interés del 5% al 6% es mucho menos dramático que un movimiento del 1% al 2%. En segundo lugar, cuando las tasas suben, los inversores se benefician de rendimientos más altos y, de hecho, el carry ha regresado al mercado de renta fija, lo que hace que la renta corriente desempeñe un papel más importante en la rentabilidad de los bonos.
Por ejemplo, con los rendimientos actuales, los ingresos obtenidos con los bonos del Tesoro actuales a 10 años proporcionan un amortiguador de rendimiento incluso si las tasas continúan aumentando el próximo año. A medida que se aleja más de la curva de riesgo crediticio, el carry es aún mayor según los estándares históricos. Esto permite que la renta fija sea más resistente frente a una amplia gama de posibles movimientos del mercado, incluidos aquellos con rendimientos, diferenciales de crédito o volatilidad aún mayores.
Inversión de ingresos en 2023: dónde enfocarse
La conclusión es que la compensación de riesgo/recompensa de los bonos ha mejorado significativamente en 2023, y el entorno actual del mercado representa un punto de entrada muy convincente. Por supuesto, determinar la combinación correcta de bonos para una asignación estratégica más amplia dependerá del apetito de riesgo individual de cada inversor.
Para recibir más información sobre la inversión en ingresos, haga click aquí.
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