La crisis del coronavirus ha cambiado aún más la ponderación de las perspectivas de rendimiento de las clases de activos individuales para la próxima década. La renta variable y los alternativos parecen ofrecer a los inversores privados oportunidades de ganancias relativamente buenas, según DWS.
Primero, el shock; después, la recuperación
En junio, como parte de un análisis de inversiones a largo plazo, la gestora reevaluó los rendimientos previstos para 2030 de los principales activos y concluyó que los recortes de dividendos, el deterioro de las calificaciones crediticias de las empresas y la conmoción en el mercado de bonos gubernamentales fueron más extremos al comienzo de la crisis del coronavirus que durante la crisis financiera de 2008-2009. Sin embargo, la situación de los fundamentales de la mayoría de las empresas es comparable con la que se produjo entonces.
Esto significa que las cosas no están tan mal como en las primeras semanas del confinamiento y, a su juicio, para el tercer trimestre, la mayoría de las economías desarrolladas deberían volver a crecer. A esto se une que muchas empresas se están beneficiando de las ayudas gubernamentales, que se han puesto en marcha mucho más rápido que en 2008 de forma masiva.
«Los gobiernos han evitado que la recesión del coronavirus se convierta en una depresión sin precedentes», apunta dicho informe. Esto ha permitido a las empresas asegurar la liquidez y los puestos de trabajo. Y con nuevas compras de bonos por valor de miles de millones de euros, los bancos centrales también fueron rápidos y generosos en acudir en ayuda de la economía.
Su conclusión es que se puede esperar que la recuperación económica mundial adopte la forma de una raíz cuadrada. “Debería moverse rápidamente hacia arriba desde el punto más bajo, pero entonces es probable que se aplane en el camino hacia el tipo de crecimiento que era habitual antes de la crisis”, aclara.
Los motores de la renta variable
¿Qué significa esto para las perspectivas a largo plazo de los mercados de renta variable? Tras la primera sacudida de la pandemia, que provocó que el S&P 500 se desplomara drásticamente y que el Dax cayera un 12% en solo una semana, la mayoría de los índices han vuelto a situarse en sus máximos anteriores a la crisis o justo por debajo de ellos.
DWS cree que el poder de dividendos de la mayoría de las empresas volverá a la normalidad en un período de cinco años a partir del shock del coronavirus de la primavera de 2020, como ocurrió después del 2008. Se espera que los mayores motores de rendimiento de la renta variable durante la próxima década sean el aumento de la distribución de dividendos y las recompras de acciones, seguidos de los beneficios reales de las empresas y los aumentos del precio de las acciones resultantes de ambos factores.
En general, calcula unos rendimientos anuales medios previstos para los próximos diez años del 5,5% para las acciones estadounidenses, del 4,6% para las europeas y del 5,9% para las de mercados emergentes.
El desplome de los bonos
En lo que respecta a los bonos, la gestora considera que un aumento masivo en los gastos presupuestarios como resultado de las ayudas por coronavirus, combinado con las compras de bonos a gran escala por parte de los bancos centrales, afecta a la perspectiva a diez años. “Ambos factores crearon una demanda adicional en los mercados de renta fija, lo que hizo que los rendimientos se desmoronaran aún más en la fase aguda del confinamiento y es probable que las perspectivas de ganancias se vean aún más mermadas en el camino hacia 2030”, afirma.
En su opinión, para los inversores en bonos gubernamentales estadounidenses, la próxima década probablemente traerá bajos tipos de interés nominales y reales. Además, los rendimientos negativos en algunos «refugios seguros», como los bonos alemanes, es probable que persistan.
“Incluso los rendimientos de los bonos corporativos se han visto presionados por el coronavirus, mientras que la agresiva desaceleración económica ha aumentado paralelamente el riesgo de insolvencia y, por tanto, la probabilidad de impago”, destaca la gestora. En ese sentido, estima que, para 2030, los bonos gubernamentales de EE.UU. probablemente solo obtengan un rendimiento del 0,7% anual, mientras que los europeos probablemente se ubiquen, de media, por debajo del 0,2%. De acuerdo a su previsión, solo los de mercados emergentes con un riesgo muy superior podrían ofrecer rendimientos de alrededor del 5,6% anual.
Las infraestructuras, beneficiadas
Mientras, sus estimaciones a largo plazo arrojan perspectivas más interesantes en inversiones alternativas, incluidos los fondos que invierten en proyectos de infraestructura como redes telefónicas, carreteras y presas, o en fondos inmobiliarios cotizados en bolsa (REITs).
“Estas inversiones se ven favorecidas por el hecho de que los modelos de negocio de los operadores de infraestructuras suelen generar ingresos a prueba de crisis, lo que tiene un efecto estabilizador en las valoraciones de los mercados bursátiles”, asegura DWS. Su análisis hasta 2030 muestra un rendimiento anual estimado del 6,2% para inversiones en infraestructuras globales; y alrededor de la mitad proviene de los ingresos de las empresas, con el crecimiento empresarial como segundo motor más importante.
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