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The US Market Appears to Have Already Discounted a Cautionary Re-opening Scenario

grand-central-station-690180_1920 — Pixabay CC0 Public DomainAutor: Free-Photos. Reapertura de EE. UU.

U.S. equities marched higher in August as the S&P 500 logged its seventh consecutive monthly gain. Markets responded favorably to a strong earnings season, stable central bank monetary policy, and robust infrastructure spending. Despite the positive headlines, investors remain cautious over inflation dampening profit margins and companies’ passing those higher prices to consumers.

Although 53% of Americans are fully vaccinated, concerns remain over the impact of the Delta variant on the unvaccinated portion of the population. Efforts to administer a booster shot have received FDA approval, which aim to bolster the efficacy of those vaccinated earlier this year. Additional shutdowns remain unlikely and the market appears to have already discounted a cautionary re-opening scenario with travel and leisure stocks shedding some of their gains.

Continued focus remains on the Fed and their stance on monetary policy in response to higher inflation rates. Although recent discussions of potential implementation of tapering have been non-material, the market remains cognizant of potential action being taken by the Fed should these concerns persist.

Although our approach to picking stocks always evolves – we still often video conference with management teams even though we are back in the office – we remain true to the founding fundamental research process and PMV with a Catalyst™ methodology of our firm. As Value Investors, we will continue to use the current market volatility as an opportunity to buy attractive companies, which have positive free cash flows, healthy balance sheets and are trading at discounted prices.

Mergers and acquisitions activity remained vibrant in August with $480 billion in announced deals, an increase of 44% compared to 2020.

The global convertible market bounced back in August with positive returns and an uptick in issuance. Returns were mostly driven by positive underlying equity performance for the month. The return of issuance was also a positive development after a relatively slow July. Pricing improved and we anticipate the pace of issuance to accelerate through the fall. The fundamental reasons for increased convertible issuance are still quite intact with low interest rates, increasing equity prices, and favorable tax environments available to most potential issuers.

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To access our proprietary value investment methodology, and dedicated merger arbitrage portfolio we offer the following UCITS Funds in each discipline:

GAMCO MERGER ARBITRAGE

GAMCO Merger Arbitrage UCITS Fund, launched in October 2011, is an open-end fund incorporated in Luxembourg and compliant with UCITS regulation. The team, dedicated strategy, and record dates back to 1985. The objective of the GAMCO Merger Arbitrage Fund is to achieve long-term capital growth by investing primarily in announced equity merger and acquisition transactions while maintaining a diversified portfolio. The Fund utilizes a highly specialized investment approach designed principally to profit from the successful completion of proposed mergers, takeovers, tender offers, leveraged buyouts and other types of corporate reorganizations. Analyzes and continuously monitors each pending transaction for potential risk, including: regulatory, terms, financing, and shareholder approval.

Merger investments are a highly liquid, non-market correlated, proven and consistent alternative to traditional fixed income and equity securities. Merger returns are dependent on deal spreads. Deal spreads are a function of time, deal risk premium, and interest rates. Returns are thus correlated to interest rate changes over the medium term and not the broader equity market. The prospect of rising rates would imply higher returns on mergers as spreads widen to compensate arbitrageurs. As bond markets decline (interest rates rise), merger returns should improve as capital allocation decisions adjust to the changes in the costs of capital.

Broad Market volatility can lead to widening of spreads in merger positions, coupled with our well-researched merger portfolios, offer the potential for enhanced IRRs through dynamic position sizing. Daily price volatility fluctuations coupled with less proprietary capital (the Volcker rule) in the U.S. have contributed to improving merger spreads and thus, overall returns. Thus our fund is well positioned as a cash substitute or fixed income alternative.

Our objectives are to compound and preserve wealth over time, while remaining non-correlated to the broad global markets. We created our first dedicated merger fund 32 years ago. Since then, our merger performance has grown client assets at an annualized rate of approximately 10.7% gross and 7.6% net since 1985. Today, we manage assets on behalf of institutional and high net worth clients globally in a variety of fund structures and mandates.

Class I USD – LU0687944552
Class I EUR – LU0687944396
Class A USD – LU0687943745
Class A EUR – LU0687943661
Class R USD – LU1453360825
Class R EUR – LU1453361476

GAMCO ALL CAP VALUE

The GAMCO All Cap Value UCITS Fund launched in May, 2015 utilizes Gabelli’s its proprietary PMV with a Catalyst™ investment methodology, which has been in place since 1977. The Fund seeks absolute returns through event driven value investing. Our methodology centers around fundamental, research-driven, value based investing with a focus on asset values, cash flows and identifiable catalysts to maximize returns independent of market direction. The fund draws on the experience of its global portfolio team and 35+ value research analysts.

GAMCO is an active, bottom-up, value investor, and seeks to achieve real capital appreciation (relative to inflation) over the long term regardless of market cycles. Our value-oriented stock selection process is based on the fundamental investment principles first articulated in 1934 by Graham and Dodd, the founders of modern security analysis, and further augmented by Mario Gabelli in 1977 with his introduction of the concepts of Private Market Value (PMV) with a Catalyst™ into equity analysis. PMV with a Catalyst™ is our unique research methodology that focuses on individual stock selection by identifying firms selling below intrinsic value with a reasonable probability of realizing their PMV’s which we define as the price a strategic or financial acquirer would be willing to pay for the entire enterprise. The fundamental valuation factors utilized to evaluate securities prior to inclusion/exclusion into the portfolio, our research driven approach views fundamental analysis as a three pronged approach: free cash flow (earnings before, interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA, minus the capital expenditures necessary to grow/maintain the business); earnings per share trends; and private market value (PMV), which encompasses on and off balance sheet assets and liabilities. Our team arrives at a PMV valuation by a rigorous assessment of fundamentals from publicly available information and judgement gained from meeting management, covering all size companies globally and our comprehensive, accumulated knowledge of a variety of sectors. We then identify businesses for the portfolio possessing the proper margin of safety and research variables from our deep research universe.

Class I USD – LU1216601648
Class I EUR – LU1216601564
Class A USD – LU1216600913
Class A EUR – LU1216600673
Class R USD – LU1453359900
Class R EUR – LU1453360155

GAMCO CONVERTIBLE SECURITIES

GAMCO Convertible Securities’ objective is to seek to provide current income as well as long term capital appreciation through a total return strategy by investing in a diversified portfolio of global convertible securities.

The Fund leverages the firm’s history of investing in dedicated convertible security portfolios since 1979.

The fund invests in convertible securities, as well as other instruments that have economic characteristics similar to such securities, across global markets (but the fund will not invest in contingent convertible notes). The fund may invest in securities of any market capitalization or credit quality, including up to 100% in below investment grade or unrated securities, and may from time to time invest a significant amount of its assets in securities of smaller companies. Convertible securities may include any suitable convertible instruments such as convertible bonds, convertible notes or convertible preference shares.

By actively managing the fund and investing in convertible securities, the investment manager seeks the opportunity to participate in the capital appreciation of underlying stocks, while at the same time relying on the fixed income aspect of the convertible securities to provide current income and reduced price volatility, which can limit the risk of loss in a down equity market.

Class I USD LU2264533006

Class I EUR LU2264532966

Class A USD LU2264532701

Class A EUR LU2264532610

Class R USD LU2264533345

Class R EUR LU2264533261

Class F USD LU2264533691

Class F EUR LU2264533428

Disclaimer:
The information and any opinions have been obtained from or are based on sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No responsibility can be accepted for any consequential loss arising from the use of this information. The information is expressed at its date and is issued only to and directed only at those individuals who are permitted to receive such information in accordance with the applicable statutes. In some countries the distribution of this publication may be restricted. It is your responsibility to ﬁnd out what those restrictions are and observe them.

Some of the statements in this presentation may contain or be based on forward looking statements, forecasts, estimates, projections, targets, or prognosis (“forward looking statements”), which reﬂect the manager’s current view of future events, economic developments and ﬁnancial performance. Such forward looking statements are typically indicated by the use of words which express an estimate, expectation, belief, target or forecast. Such forward looking statements are based on an assessment of historical economic data, on the experience and current plans of the investment manager and/or certain advisors of the manager, and on the indicated sources. These forward looking statements contain no representation or warranty of whatever kind that such future events will occur or that they will occur as described herein, or that such results will be achieved by the fund or the investments of the fund, as the occurrence of these events and the results of the fund are subject to various risks and uncertainties. The actual portfolio, and thus results, of the fund may differ substantially from those assumed in the forward looking statements. The manager and its affiliates will not undertake to update or review the forward looking statements contained in this presentation, whether as result of new information or any future event or otherwise.

The Trouble with Yields

| For Cecilia Prieto | 0 Comentarios

wallet-2292428_640 — Pixabay CC0 Public DomainBajos rendimientos de la renta fija. Bajos rendimientos de la renta fija

As investors look across the world for opportunity and challenges within the fixed income asset class, it’s important to note that real yields are at historic lows in high quality fixed income markets.

In addition, spreads are at some of the lowest levels that we’ve seen in history. This is not a time to take undue risk within fixed income. At the same time, it’s important to see that the role of fixed income in asset allocators’ portfolios is changing. Because those real yields are so low, and yet because the opportunity in markets from a volatility perspective is rising, an investor must be significantly nimbler these days than to merely clip a coupon.

In the current market environment, we’re generally positioning our fixed income portfolios to take less risk given low real yields and low spreads. There are still areas of opportunity. As is often true in investing, investors continually fight the last war. Consumer balance sheets, particularly in the United States, are overlooked by some. To the contrary, we believe consumer balance sheets in the United States are quite strong. The real challenges are consumer balance sheets outside the United States and the corporate and sovereign bonds that are exposed to that weakness.

Outside of the U.S., we have seen an incredible penchant for spending, most notably on the sovereign front where government expenditures rose precipitously with Covid-related social spending programs. Of course, this is coming at a time when government revenues are at record lows due to lack of tax revenues with subdued economic activity. As with corporates, the recipe of a higher debt load with a lower P&L is not a comfortable dynamic, especially if prolonged.

Investors gave governments the benefit of the doubt through 2020 with the hope that 2021 would bring some austerity. That has not been the case. We are now left with a larger public sector deficit and a higher debt load. Therefore, we are not surprised that we have seen the largest number of sovereign rating downgrades in the 21^st century by nearly 200% (captured below).

When Will the Fed Move?

One interesting development in markets over the course of the past quarter has been that rates have fallen, not just in the United States, but in many places across the globe. This is at odds with high inflation and high growth prints, as well as an improving labor market. A remarkable instance of the market trying to outguess the Federal Reserve.

Despite questions around the Fed’s commitment to keeping rates lower for longer, investors have seen that they have been very clear and resolute. The Fed’s plan to raise rates and taper bond purchases is on schedule for later this year.

Although the Fed is still active in markets, the economic bump in the road due to the Delta variant makes it apparent that rates cannot rise monotonically towards 2 or 3+ percent. However, as we look at the intermediate term, and we see incredible amounts of fiscal and monetary stimulus still in the system, growth should continue to be good and curves should continue to steepen. While the Fed and other central banks are anchoring rates at the front end, the long end can rise especially as that taper gets closer and closer.

No Global Lock-Step Market Movements Likely

As we look across the globe, there are a variety of different situations and potential opportunities. Emerging markets is a varied landscape: from China which has a significant virus lockdown and has seen an early cycle growth stage, earlier than other countries; to places like Brazil, where vaccination rates are much more challenging and resulting growth has been pushed into the future. At some point, we’re going to see vaccines continue to take hold, and that should be a boost for growth. But is there an opportunity today before we see restored domestic demand, particularly in a healthier local consumer?

Outside the U.S., we cannot apply a blanket policy to risk. Corporate bonds offer a glimmer of hope. There are many corporates in EM who benefit from the global cycle vs domestic demand. In other words, they are exposed to the aforementioned healthy consumer/corporates we have in the United States. Because of this, we have seen leverage, interest coverage, and cashflow generation improve with global reflation.

The key in EM is making sure there are built-in hedges to the business (input costs, currency, interest rate) that can help weather global economic swings or offer defensive narratives. With these, we can capture EM spread levels which have lagged both U.S. and the Euro area (see below) while limiting our exposure to typical EM dynamics like cyclicality, currency depreciation and earnings volatility.

With that in mind, we have continued to move our portfolios to a risk-off stance but with a focus on the strength of consumer and corporate balance sheets and the underwriting of fixed income in those sectors.

One last note is we need to look at the market every day, and do, because we never know what day volatility will rear its head. These are times when a nimble and wholistic approach to fixed income management really comes into its own.

Jason Brady, CFA, is President and CEO at Thornburg Investment Management.

Ayman Ahmed is a Senior Fixed Income Analyst at Thornburg Investment Management.

Important Information

The views expressed are subject to change and do not necessarily reflect the views of Thornburg Investment Management, Inc. This information should not be relied upon as a recommendation or investment advice and is not intended to predict the performance of any investment or market.

This is not a solicitation or offer for any product or service. Nor is it a complete analysis of every material fact concerning any market, industry, or investment. Data has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but Thornburg makes no representations as to the completeness or accuracy of such information and has no obligation to provide updates or changes. Thornburg does not accept any responsibility and cannot be held liable for any person’s use of or reliance on the information and opinions contained herein.

Investments carry risks, including possible loss of principal.

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Please see our glossary for a definition of terms.

ODDO BHF AM Acquires Metropole Gestion, Independent Firm Specializing in Value Investing

| For Beatriz Zúñiga | 0 Comentarios

ODDO BHF AM ceo — Foto cedidaNicolas Chaput, consejero delegado (CEO) de ODDO BHF AM.. ODDO BHF AM compra Metropole Gestión, firma especializada en gestión value

ODDO BHF Asset Management and Metropole Gestion have announced their merger. In a press release, they have revealed that ODDO BHF AM has acquired 100% of the equity capital of this independent French asset manager specializing in value investing, which was founded in 2002 by François-Marie Wojcik and Isabel Levy. The transaction is still subject to approval by the French Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF).

In their view, this link-up will avail clients of both companys of “a unique investment style” that has been implemented for over 20 years by a “stable and dedicated team” led by Isabel Levy and Ingrid Trawinski.

Specifically, the expertise of Metropole Gestion will enrich ODDO BHF AM’s existing product offering. Both investment firms have already placed environmental, social and governance (ESG) criteria at the heart of their investment processes for several years now.

Meanwhile, Metropole Gestion’s fund range will benefit from ODDO BHF AM’s European distribution capacities, particularly in France, Germany, and Switzerland, with institutional clients, distributors and independent financial advisors. Meanwhile, the merger will give ODDO BHF AM’s strategies access to distribution in the US and UK, where Metropole Gestion is already present.

“In almost 20 years, Metropole Gestion has built up renowned know-how in value-oriented investment style, thanks to the trust that investors have placed in it, and backed by a highly skilled and devoted team. This know-how will be the cornerstone of the greater reach it will have within the framework of this merger”, said Francois-Marie Wojcik, Chairman and CEO of Metropole Gestion.

Isabel Levy, Deputy CEO and Chief Investment Officer of the independent firm comment that this merger addresses their wish to join up with “an ambitious business strategy” by combining teams with “renowned and complementary skills and similar cultures.”

Lastly, Nicolas Chaput, CEO of ODDO BHF AM claimed to be “very pleased” to welcome the Metropole Gestion team, whom they know well and for whom they have “the utmost respect”. “The value-oriented investment style implemented by Isabel’s and Ingrid’s teams will enrich the Group’s product offering and meet the expectations of many of our clients”, he concluded.

Increased Savings Set to Be Lasting Legacy of Pandemic as Investor Confidence Soars

| For Beatriz Zúñiga | 0 Comentarios

money-2696238_1920 — Pixabay CC0 Public DomainAutor: nattanan23.. El aumento del ahorro será el legado de la pandemia mientras la confianza del inversor se dispara

A greater focus on saving and financial wellbeing are set to be among the lasting legacies of the pandemic even as investor confidence soars, the last Schroders Global Investor Study has found.

The flagship study, which surveyed over 23,000 people from 32 locations globally, found that almost half of investors (46%) will now save more once restrictions have been lifted. Although this sentiment is strongest among investors aged 18-37, this more measured approach also flows through to investors’ retirement outlooks, with 58% of retirees globally now more conservative in terms of spending their savings, while 67% of those yet to retire now want to save more towards their retirement.

Despite the challenges brought by the pandemic, Schroders points out that investor confidence has soared to its highest level since the study began in 2016, with average annual return expectations over the next five years expected to be 11.3%, an increase on 10.9% predicted a year ago.

A focus on financial wellbeing

The study also shows that almost three-quarters (74%) of investors globally have spent more time thinking about their financial wellbeing since the pandemic, with self-purported ‘expert/advanced’ investors the most engaged. Geographically, this change was most pronounced in Asia with investors in Thailand, India and Indonesia sharing this view strongly.

This means that investors globally are now more likely to check their investments at least once a month (82%), compared with 77% of investors in 2019. Besides, over the course of 2020, 32% of investors globally saved more than they had planned to. Unsurprisingly, this was driven by decreased spending on non-essentials, such as eating out, travel and leisure.

In this sense, over a third (38%) of investors in Europe had saved more than planned, followed by those in Asia (28%) and the Americas (27%). Of those who were unable to save as much as planned, 45% globally cited reduced salaries/work income as the key reason, “which reflects the great challenges caused by the pandemic”, says Schroders.

Cause for optimism

The analysis reveals that investors in the USA, Netherlands and the UK are set to be the most likely to increase spending once their respective lockdowns have lifted. At the other end of the scale, the most cautious investors were based in Japan, Sweden and Hong Kong.

Furthermore, investment confidence is being driven by investors who class themselves to be ‘expert/advanced’ with return expectations of 12.8%, compared with 8.9% for self-purported ‘beginner/rudimentary’ investors. In this sense, those in the Americas were the most bullish, expecting annual total returns of 12.5% over the next five years, followed by those in Asia (12.3%) and slightly more cautious investors in Europe (9.7%).

“The pandemic has heightened our sense of uncertainty and challenged our ability to process risk, making many of us feel more anxious and out of control. These sentiments can clearly be seen in the results of our survey, with investors increasingly focused on saving, monitoring retirement contributions and checking their investments more frequently”, commented Stuart Podmore, a behavioural investment insights specialist at Schroders.

In his view, despite the “huge challenges” we have encountered, it is encouraging to see that the pandemic has acted as a catalyst for promoting a stronger focus globally on generic financial planning and wellbeing. “Although this is a global study, we all share common wants and needs, and financial security is a key focus for all of us. At the same time, we need to exert caution over the investment returns we expect over the coming five years, as the outlook shared by many investors – and in particular those who believe themselves to be experts – is exceptionally optimistic”, he added.

Podmore believes that the past 18 months have taught us that “the future remains difficult to predict” and a “measured, consistent and patient” approach to investing, focused on long term objectives and probable outcomes, is likely to stand investors “in better stead”.

Pictet Asset Management: Summer Rally Already a Distant Memory

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The surge in stock markets that accompanied the summer heatwave is, we believe, over. From here on in, conditions are likely to be much less friendly. As a result, we maintain our underweight stance on equities and our neutral position on bonds, balanced by an overweight in cash.

The summer rally came as falling oil prices boosted hopes the US Federal Reserve could engineer a soft landing for the US economy. Further lifting investor sentiment were data testifying to the US’s economic resilience.

Yet there are reasons to believe the stock market recovery has run its course. Oil prices are rising again. And even if inflation has peaked, it is looking sticky. Business and consumer surveys, meanwhile, are turning gloomy even though central banks are likely to ignore these until they feed through to hard economic data. At the same time, valuation and sentiment indicators no longer offer compelling cases to hold riskier assets (see Fig. 2).

To turn more positive on riskier assets, we’d need to see several developments unfold at more or less the same time.

First, a steeper yield curve. That would suggest strong economic growth down the line; it is also a prerequisite for bull markets. Second, a bottoming of downward revisions to corporate earnings forecasts and to leading economic indicators. Third, technical indicators giving unequivocal ‘oversold’ signals for equities, and cyclical stocks in particular. And finally – for bonds – that the currency monetary tightening cycle is sufficient to get inflation back to central banks’ targets.

Our business cycle indicators point to more inflation surprises and a sustained loss of momentum in economic growth indicators. We have again cut our global GDP forecast for the current year, to 2.5 per cent from 2.9 per cent, largely as a consequence of weakening US data.

We now expect the US economy to grow by just 1.6 per cent this year, from 3 per cent previously. Although leading indicators have been weakening across most regions and sectors, we anticipate both the euro zone and the US will narrowly avoid recession over the coming quarters. Indeed, US survey evidence and hard data increasingly look at odds with one another, with retail sales remaining resilient, unemployment at 50-year lows and residential investment as a percentage of GDP hitting new post-global financial crisis highs.

The euro zone economy outperformed during the first half of the year thanks to pent-up demand following the removal of Covid restrictions, but the latest numbers are less encouraging. The recent surge in European gas and electricity prices is a particular worry. The UK, meanwhile, is clearly sliding into a recession while inflation continues to rip higher, posing an intractable dilemma for the Bank of England. On the other hand, Japan remains a bright spot as do emerging economies, particularly in Latin America.

Our liquidity scores remain negative, with conditions particularly tight in both the US and the UK. Developed market central banks are making policy more restrictive by both raising interest rates and through quantitative tightening (QT) measures that contract their balance sheets – our central bank liquidity gauges show their worst readings since at least 2007. We expect global QT of some USD1.5 trillion this year, equivalent to a 1 percentage point increase in interest rates, which would unwind half of Covid-era monetary stimulus. At the same time, the pace of private credit creation is starting to slow.

Our valuation scores show that following their rally, equities are again looking expensive, while bonds are cheap to fairly valued. For global stocks, year-ahead price-to-earnings ratios have risen by a lofty 15 per cent since mid-June, reducing their appeal. Another negative comes in the shape of corporate earnings, whose growth we believe is running out of steam; we forecast a below-consensus 2 per cent growth in profits for 2022, with risks on the downside if economic growth weakens further. Our valuation models favour emerging markets, materials, communications services, UK bonds, the Japanese yen and the euro and finds as particularly expensive commodities, US equities, utilities, euro zone index-lined bonds, Chinese bonds and the dollar.

Our technical indicators show that trend and sentiment signals for riskier assets have largely normalised, having been negative during the fist half of the year. Despite the summer rally, sentiment indicators are neutral with the exception of utilities and euro zone high yield bonds, which look overbought. Speculative positioning in S&P 500 stocks is close to a record short. But while surveys show continued bearishness, that’s declining, and flows into equity funds have turned positive again.

Asset allocation

We maintain our underweight in equities amid concerns about global growth and our neutral position on bonds as inflation looks to be stickier than expected.

We reduce risk in our equities portfolio by downgrading Chinese stocks to neutral and the consumer discretionary sector to underweight.

We keep a defensive stance by maintaining our overweight in Treasuries and safe-haven currencies. We are underweight European sovereign and corporate bonds and the Chinese renminbi.

Opinion written by Luca Paolini, Pictet Asset Management’s Chief Strategist

Discover Pictet Asset Management’s macro and asset allocation views.

Why It Pays To Stay Agile in an Age of Low Interest Rates

| For Beatriz Zúñiga | 0 Comentarios

ballet-2042851_1920 — Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. A medida que los mercados vuelven a la normalidad, las opciones de la Fed podrían ser claves

Last year, during the most acute phase of the Covid-19 crisis, the world’s major central banks intervened on an unprecedented scale – cutting interest rates, buying government bonds and providing massive liquidity. Sovereign bond yields reacted by sinking to historic lows: -0.9% on the 10-year German Bund and 0.5% on 10-year US Treasuries.

With a brisk – albeit uneven – economic recovery underway across much of the world, and yields well above their recent low point, some commentators believe global rates have turned a corner. The argument goes that the four-decade bond bull market, which has pushed yields steadily lower, is now over. A resurgence of growth and inflation means that materially higher rates are inevitable.

Though it is tempting to think that the recent climb in bond yields heralds a change of regime, we think this view is mistaken. While rates may rise somewhat from here, there is ample evidence that they will remain extremely low against all historical measures. Indeed, multiple factors suggest interest rates will stay “lower for even longer,” based on both long-term economic trends and more recent developments. Rethinking portfolios to account for this outlook should be an urgent priority for investors.

Slower growth is suppressing interest rates

To take the longer-term factors first, the forces that have propelled a 40-year bull market in government bonds – and the accompanying decline in developed-world interest rates (see Chart) – seem far from exhausted. Until they are, it is premature to call a decisive turn.

Two key factors have helped drive rates lower: a decades-long deceleration in economic growth and inflation, as well as falling long-term inflation expectations. Nominal bond yields track nominal GDP closely. As growth slows, interest rates and bond yields tend to moderate. In this context, a given rate of interest represents an equilibrium that balances demand for capital to invest and the supply of savings available to meet that demand. Slower growth tends to suppress investment demand for investment capital and therefore puts downward pressure on interest rates.

Demographics mean the world is “drowning” in savings

Increased longevity across the developed world has tipped the demographic balance, reducing the size of working populations relative to older generations, helping create a worldwide glut of savings that is seeking a home in safe assets, notably bond markets.

There are also fewer places to put these savings to work. This is because of a long-term transition in developed economies from capital-intensive industry and manufacturing towards capital-light, services-oriented businesses, which have lower investment needs.

Slowing productivity growth has reinforced this trend by reducing long-term rates of economic expansion, again suppressing demand for investment capital. The result is an abundance of capital and a relative shortage of opportunities to invest it, leading to downward pressure on interest rates. All these factors are long-term in nature and firmly entrenched – none of them is likely to reverse imminently.

Debt is at record levels

The world has accumulated a vast amount of debt – public and private – in the years since the global financial crisis, and especially since the Covid-19 crisis. Massive debt burdens, albeit easily financeable at very low interest rates, tend to suppress future growth by diverting cash from productive investment to servicing debt. They also make borrowers more vulnerable to unexpected increase in interest rates.

With debt levels in major developed economies at record levels, central banks face a daunting challenge. Any significant rise in interest rates could render huge swathes of existing debt unsustainable and destabilize governments and financial markets. As a result, financial repression – where inflation is consistently higher than interest rates – becomes a necessary tool of monetary policy to ensure borrowers’ debt burdens remain sustainable. But it creates challenges for investors who are hunting for yield to protect their savings.

In effect, the center of gravity in central banking has shifted. Policies such as quantitative easing (QE), experimental a decade ago, are now routine. Far from seeking an exit from current policies as soon as possible, central banks are now more likely to stress the dangers of providing too little support to the economy, rather than providing too much.

So, it is not surprising that even though a powerful rebound in economic activity is likely, this year and next, all indications are that monetary policy will remain loose. The US Federal Reserve is expected to taper its bond purchase program very gradually, with no rate increase likely before 2023. In the euro area, monetary policy will remain extremely loose. All this strongly suggests that the most likely outlook in developed economies is for many more years of historically low interest rates that will keep returns from safe assets close to zero.

Portfolio implications

How should investors react? It has rarely been harder to generate reliable income. Equally, preserving the purchasing power of money in an age of financial repression is a constant headache. And if investors venture beyond traditional assets in search of extra yield, how should they diversify and manage risk?

Think of allocations as a barbell

Investors should view their choices as a “barbell” that spans two groups of assets: those suited to preserving capital (including sovereign bonds, credit and cash alternatives) and those designed to generate capital growth and income (including emerging-markets bonds, equities and private-markets assets such as infrastructure equity and debt and private credit.) They can then choose from a range of multi-asset solutions that combine elements from each group to target a range of outcomes.

Staying agile is key

The past few years have illustrated a key feature of today’s investment markets: how rapidly conditions can shift. Accordingly, the optimum mix of assets will naturally need to shift in response. This calls for a highly dynamic approach to positioning that rapidly switches asset allocations within the portfolio as the economic conditions evolve to preserve the benefits of diversification and ensure agile risk management.

Consider permanent portfolio changes

Some changes in portfolios could be more permanent. This points to a future in which the balance of traditional equity/fixed income portfolios will shift decisively towards equities: a conventional balanced portfolio of 70% bonds and 30% equities may move towards a 50:50 position, for example. A more aggressive 60:40 portfolio might shift to 80% equity and 20% fixed income, or even 100% equities with an equity-risk hedge overlaid. It also suggests that allocations to private-market assets intended to generate capital growth and additional yield will increase substantially. They may reach 20% in a typical institutional multi-asset portfolio.

The forces that have driven interest rates steadily towards zero over the past four decades are still at work and will remain dominant for the foreseeable future. Against this background, the way investors approach asset allocation must change, and their approach to risk management and diversification must become far more agile to navigate an era when market conditions can be changeable.

A column by Franck Dixmier, Global Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income at Allianz Global Investors; and Ingo Mainert, Chief Investment Officer of Multi Asset for Europe

Enjoy the Pictures of the Fundraising Gala to Support Surfside Collapse Residents

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Many relevant players of Miami´s financial industry raised $ 75,000 to help those affected by the collapse of the Surfside condominium in Champlain Towers South through the GEM foundation.

During the event, which took place on September 9th at the Rusty Pelican, Michael Capponi, GEM’s President, explained to the presents about the foundation’s work.

Zulia Taub, a survivor of the collapse, also spoke.

The initial goal was $ 50,000, but with the effort of 20 firms, which supported with Diamond, Gold and Silver sponsorship, it was possible to reach 75,000.

Diamond: Funds Society, MFS, Ninety One
Gold: AXA Investment Managers, BNY Mellon Investment Management, Bolton Global Capital, Brown Advisory, Insigneo, Janus Henderson Investors, Jupiter Asset Management, Schroders, Thornburg Investment Management
Silver: RWC, Natixis Investment Management, Manulife Investment Management y Franklin Templeton.

In addition, the event wouldn’t have been possible without the collaboration of José Corena, Richard Garland, Jimmy Ly and Blanca Durán from Día Libre Viajes.

Moreover, the organization has created an account in gofundme platform as a new donation channel.

iM Global Partner Acquires 42% of Asset Preservation Advisors

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sparkler-801902_1920 — Pixabay CC0 Public DomainAutor: Free-Photos.. iM Global Partner se hace con el 42% de Asset Preservation Advisor para acelerar su expansión en EE.UU y Europa

iM Global Partner has announced the acquisition of a strategic non-controlling stake of 42% in Asset Preservation Advisors (APA), an independent investment advisor specializing in managing high quality tax-exempt and taxable municipal bond portfolios for registered investment advisors, family wealth offices, financial advisors and institutional clients.

The asset manager has highlighted that this transaction will grow its US-based product offering and accelerate its expansion, also across Europe. Through this new partnership APA joins iM Global Partner’s extensive global asset management and distribution network, while ensuring its long-term independence for decades to come.

“We are excited to partner with APA. With 4.8 billion dollars in assets under management, APA now ranks as the fourth largest independent municipal bond specialist in the US. iM Global Partner’s success in attracting new Partners is due to its values of integrity and support for entrepreneurialism which ensure that each partner retains its autonomy and independent value proposition combined with iM Global Partner’s worldwide distribution network”, said Philippe Couvrecelle, CEO and Founder of the firm.

This is the 8th partnership that iM Global Partner has taken on in six years and is the second US partner in 2021. In July, iM Global Partner acquired a 45% stake in Richard Bernstein Advisors, a New York-based asset allocation specialist. In March this year, the firm also announced it would expand its US distribution efforts with the full acquisition and integration of California-based wealth and asset management boutique Litman Gregory.

Kevin Woods, co-CEO and CIO of APA commented that they see “an incredible opportunity” in this partnership to help continue their “strong growth” and build on their leading presence as an independent Municipal bond specialist. “iM Global Partners offered APA a unique opportunity to continue our mission to provide excellence to our clients in the same way we have for more than thirty years, and now for decades to come”, he added.

Meanwhile, Jeff Seeley, Deputy CEO, US Chief Operating Officer & Head of US Distribution of iM Global Partner pointed out that given APA’s “exceptional reputation, competitive long-term performance and growing US distribution”, they believe the firm is uniquely positioned to capitalize on the increasing investment opportunities in the municipal segment, as US clients continue to seek attractive tax-exempt strategies. “Through our partnership, iM Global Partner is adding a new range of excellent strategies to our growing and diverse fixed income product set”, he concluded.

The firm has explained that this latest strategic partnership reinforces its commitment to the US market and is yet another example of its rapid expansion. In this sense, its assets under management have grown from 7 billion dollars at end 2018 to 37 billion today, more than 400% growth in just 3 years.

Regarding the details of the financial transaction, Berkshire Global Advisors acted as financial advisor for APA and Taylor English Duma acted as legal counsel. For iM Global Partner, Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. acted as financial advisor and Seward & Kissel acted as legal counsel.

ESG Sovereign Engagement

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environmental-protection-326923_640 — Pixabay CC0 Public DomainCriterios ASG. Criterios ASG

Despite its size and importance, the sovereign debt market has been the subject of less systematic environmental, social and governance (ESG) consideration than other investment asset classes. However, appetite for ESG integration is growing among investors, with a rising number appreciating that ESG factors can and do affect sovereign debt valuations[1]. At Colchester we believe that traditional sovereign balance sheet analysis should be supplemented with a systematic integration of ESG factors to allow us to fully assess the financial stability of those developed and developing markets in which we may invest.

We assign countries a proprietary Financial Stability Score that combines an assessment of their overall balance sheet strength and ESG factors. We have separate bond and currency scores for each market which range from +4 to –8. A country may be excluded from the investment universe, where it has an inappropriate level of financial stability for the relevant asset class, or there are some other factors that suggest it is inappropriate for us to put our client’s money at risk there. We believe that countries with stronger governance, healthier and more educated workforces, and higher environmental standards tend to produce better economic outcomes. Typically, this leads to more stable debt and currency paths and ultimately better risk-adjusted returns.

There are clear differences when it comes to engagement as a sovereign investor compared to other asset classes such as equities. Unlike those asset classes where shareholders can use annual general meetings and their voting rights to engage and challenge corporate management, sovereign bond investors do not have “votes” and can only make an impact through engagement or, at an extreme, by withholding capital. The latter is only effective if there is collective commitment to do so. Accordingly, Colchester puts great emphasis on engaging with sovereign issuers in an effort to encourage best practices.

While a sovereign investor may wield less direct influence, we believe we can still play an important role in driving change through encouraging more targeted action to progress the country’s ESG agenda, discussing funding needs for ESG-related reforms, and offering our opinions on how issuers can address balance sheet and ESG concerns.

Integrating the E, S, G

Governance

As sovereign investors, we have long recognised the importance of how markets are governed and the impact this has for financial stability. Unlike a company, where governance can be considered by the actions of a board of directors, sovereign governance is broad reaching, and the economic management is often undertaken by several institutions. The assessment of sovereign governance therefore requires a broad assessment of factors to build the overall picture of how a market is being managed.

The quality of governance is indicated by factors such as government effectiveness, credibility of institutions, the rule of law and control of corruption, and has a direct bearing on the government’s ability and willingness to repay its financial obligations. Strong governance also promotes stronger economic and social outcomes. The corollary to good governance is fiscal transparency and ultimately how decisions relate back to the financial balance sheet of a market. Fiscal transparency helps to foster better overall economic governance by providing legislatures, markets and citizens with the information they need to hold governments accountable.

Governance factors differ between markets. They take on additional importance in countries with considerable resources that may generate significant wealth, such as fossil fuel, minerals, etc. Resource governance, for example, can be an important consideration for countries such as Norway, Mexico and Russia.

Turkey is a prime example of governance concerns overriding macroeconomic considerations. It may be surprising to some investors that the government financial position for Turkey is in a relatively good standing for an emerging market country, albeit certain metrics are now also weakening. The healthy domestic balance sheet position is marked with a relatively low level of debt compared to the size of the economy (in April 2021 the IMF estimated that net government debt to GDP is likely to be 34% at the end of this year). Fiscal spending has increased over the last few years, with the aim of aiding economic growth. Our external balance sheet assessment for the country has been more negative over recent years given the negative current account position is largely supported by portfolio investment flows, which creates a vulnerability for the currency. However, the rise of power from incumbent President Erdogan over the last several years has brought significant governance and other policy concerns. We have witnessed the slow but steady unwinding of the independence of many Turkish official institutions, including the Judicial System, the imposition of emergency measures, limits placed on reporting, and the influence over the central bank. This led to progressively negative Financial Stability Scores over the last several years for Turkey.

Environmental

Colchester recognises that climate change will have a profound impact on the global economy. As average temperatures around the globe continue to rise, the consensus across the scientific community is that human activity is the cause of long-term changes to temperatures and weather patterns – largely due to greenhouse gas emissions. In our view, climate-related risks are significant, as are the costs to transition to a low-carbon or more sustainable future. As sovereign bond investors, we need to be cognisant of these risks and seek to incorporate them into our investment analysis, recognising that different economies are likely to be impacted in different ways, and that policymakers can influence and mitigate the negative impacts through well-considered policy choices today. Some of the environmental factors we look at in our assessment include both transition factors such as CO2 emissions, energy intensity of GDP and renewable energy generation and physical factors such as those measured by the World Risk Index[1], Yale Environmental Performance[2], and Resource Governance.

Green bond issuance has been one of the themes of our issuer engagements this year. For example, we discussed in our interaction with the New Zealand Local Government Funding Agency (LGFA) the challenges they faced in building a sustainable bond framework given that LGFA is a conduit for local council funding (and proceeds are unlikely to be earmarked specifically for one project). We shared our insights on some of the frameworks we have seen with Nordic LGFA green bonds and green bond issuance from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).

Social

Social factors and the quality of human capital are key determinants of a country’s long-term economic growth. Measures of a country’s demographic, education, income inequality and social cohesion can inform its potential for economic progress. In particular, education is a core feature of any country’s ability to progress. Education provides knowledge and skills to the population; it is also an effective tool for reducing poverty and fostering broad socio-economic development.

The quality of education has been a constant issue discussed in our engagements with the sovereign, multilateral organisations and local institutions. In a recent meeting with a large multilateral organisation, we discussed the structural constraint the quality of education was placing on an economy. Consistent with our thinking and efforts, the organisation noted their concerns and discussed their own direct engagement with the sovereign on this matter. Examples of other social factors we look at in our assessment include indicators such as the Gini income inequality, labour standards, quality of education, life expectancy and demographics.

To sum up, Colchester strongly believes engagement can help drive positive outcomes and we take this responsibility seriously on behalf of our investors. Furthermore, we holistically integrate ESG factors into our valuations and hence into portfolio construction through the Financial Stability Score.

As a government bond investor, our engagement necessarily differs from that with a company. We recognise the “sovereignty” of the issuers we are engaging with and are sensitive to the different cultural and economic conditions of each country. The focus therefore is often on having a dialogue with a country to better understand their national priorities and to seek greater transparency in their sustainability efforts.

This article should not be relied on as a recommendation or investment advice. Colchester Global Investors Limited is regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority, and only deals with professional clients. https://www.colchesterglobal.com for more information and disclaimers.

[1] The World Risk Index is the product of a close cooperation between scientists and practitioners, it was developed by Birkmann and Welle for the Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft (The Alliance Development Works). For further informatiom, please see https://www.ireus.uni-stuttgart.de/en/institute/world_risk_index/

[2] The Environmental Performance Index (EPI) is constructed through the calculation and aggregation of 20 indicators reflecting national-level environmental data. For further information, please see https://epi.envirocenter.yale.edu/

[1] Please see PRI – A Practical Guide to ESG Integration in Sovereign Debt. A practical guide to ESG integration in sovereign debt | Technical guide | PRI (unpri.org)

Robeco Bolsters its Sustainable Investment Teams with Portfolio Managers and Seven Analysts

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Roman Robeco — Foto cedidaRoman Boner, gestor de cartera principal de la estrategia RobecoSAM Smart Energy.. Robeco refuerza sus equipos de inversión temática sostenible con un gestor principal y siete analistas de renta variable

Robeco has strengthened its sustainable themes investment teams with the addition of eight professionals. In a press release, the asset manager has announced the appointment of Roman Boner as lead Portfolio Manager of the RobecoSAM Smart Energy strategy. The teams will be further reinforced by seven equity analysts over the coming months.

“Our Trends & Thematic investment offering has seen strong growth, and our dedication, ambition and commitment allows us to attract the best world-class professionals. The capability is now stronger than ever before and we will keep adding investment professionals to further strengthen our teams in order to help achieving our clients’ financial and sustainability goals”, said Mark van der Kroft, CIO Fundamental and Quant Equity at Robeco.

David Hrdina, Chair of the Executive Committee at Robeco Switzerland, commented that with these appointments they are sending “a strong signal” to their clients and the market that Robeco Switzerland is “the center for Sustainable Thematic Asset Management, which can attract top-tier professionals”. “We made an important step in further bolstering the investment engine in Zurich. But this step was not the last one”, he added.

Based in Zurich, Boner is an experienced thematic investment manager. He joins Robeco from Woodman Asset Management, where he built up its impact offering. Previously he was Senior Portfolio Manager at Swisscanto, where he was responsible for managing different sustainable/thematic global equity funds and co-managed sustainable multi-asset funds. He also held various positions at UBS Global Asset Management, including Portfolio Manager focused on thematic sustainable equity strategies.

Besides, Pieter Busscher has been appointed lead Portfolio Manager of the RobecoSAM Smart Mobility strategy, having served as Deputy Portfolio Manager of this strategy since its launch in 2018. He has been with the firm since 2007 and is also the lead Portfolio Manager of the RobecoSAM Smart Materials Strategy.

Robeco’s deep bench of thematic investment professionals is further enhanced by the appointments of analysts Michael Studer, Mutlu Gundogan, Sanaa Hakim, Clément Chamboulive, Alyssa Cornuz, Simone Pozzi, and Diego Salvador Barrero.

Studer will be named Senior Equity Analyst focusing on Technology. He will also be the Deputy Portfolio Manager for the Smart Energy strategy. He joins from Acoro AM, where he was an investment manager, and has 13 years’ experience as an equity analyst/investment manager, working at Julius Baer and Bank J. Safra Sarasin and other firms.

Gundogan, CFA, will join as Senior Analyst from ABN AMRO – ODDO BHF, where he was Senior Equity Analyst covering the Chemicals sector. He will focus on the Materials sector and brings over 17 years’ experience as a financial analyst. As for Hakim, she will be appointed Senior Equity Analyst for Energy Efficiency & Renewables. With 6 years of experience as an investment analyst, she joins from Independent Franchise Partners and previously she was at Capital Group.

Chamboulive will join as Senior Analyst, also focusing on the Technology sector and its role in the electrification of the transport system. He worked at 2Xideas and prior to that at Baillie Gifford, and has 7 years’ experience as an Investment Analyst. Meanwhile, Cornuz, CFA, will be named Equity Analyst for the RobecoSAM Sustainable Healthy Living Equities strategy, with a focus on Consumer-related sectors. She joins from Credit Suisse and has five years’ experience as an equity and fund analyst. Previously she was at Nordea, where she was a fundamental equity analyst for thematic funds, fully integrating ESG aspects.

Furthermore, Pozzi will become Equity Analyst focusing on Industrial Automation and Process Technologies. He joins from Alantra, where he was an equity analyst and has more than six years of experience. Lastly, Salvador Barrero, CFA, has been appointed Equity Analyst for the Energy Distribution & Renewables team. He joins from BBVA AM in Spain, where he was an ESG equity portfolio manager. He has ten years’ experience as an equity analyst/portfolio manager, working at Aviva and other firms.