Wikimedia CommonsKyleAndMelissa22. Incubadoras asiáticas de "startups"
As some of our readers may already know, Matthews Asia is headquartered in San Francisco and just north of Silicon Valley, home to some of the world’s largest technology corporations as well as a hotbed for tech startups. The rise of Silicon Valley has been bolstered by its connections to nearby Stanford University as well as to the emergence of the area’s venture capital industry on Sand Hill Road since the 1970s. This energy and entrepreneurial culture has helped create many innovative ventures that have disrupted traditional businesses.
In my conversations with government officials at various science parks throughout Asia, Silicon Valley is still the main reference for the creative environment they wish to build. Nations have tried to replicate its success by following a recipe that fosters partnerships between universities and industries. They have built science parks for specific industries near a research university and provided financial incentives for companies to relocate there. Today, according to UNESCO (the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization), there are more than 400 science parks worldwide. The U.S. tops the list with more than 150 parks, followed by Japan with 111. China, which began developing science parks in the mid-1980s, now has approximately 100.
Billions of dollars have been spent worldwide to build science parks but perhaps none can claim to have the same robust, unique and multi-faceted ecosystem that Silicon Valley has built. History has also shown that attempts to recreate the Silicon Valley phenomenon have met with little success. To be successful, I believe innovative firms need an ecosystem with their own local flavor. One of the critical ingredients to achieving this is the development of venture capital for earlier stages of enterprises, also known as incubators. Over the past decade, we have seen incubators sprouting up across Asia. More recently, in an interesting turn of events, many Silicon Valley incubators have been setting their sights on Asia as low-cost smartphones are creating a mobile generation in which many users are accessing the Internet for the first time through handsets rather than personal computers.
While the trend is exciting, it is too soon to assess the impact of these new ecosystems for startups. But over the long term, having a vibrant startup community is critical for the development of innovative sectors within Asia. If successful, this development may bode well for countries that are moving toward service-oriented economies as well as for Asia’s technology investors.
Jerry Shih, CFA is a Research Analyst at Matthews Asia
The views and information discussed represent opinion and an assessment of market conditions at a specific point in time that are subject to change. It should not be relied upon as a recommendation to buy and sell particular securities or markets in general. The subject matter contained herein has been derived from several sources believed to be reliable and accurate at the time of compilation. Matthews International Capital Management, LLC does not accept any liability for losses either direct or consequential caused by the use of this information. Investing in international and emerging markets may involve additional risks, such as social and political instability, market illiquidity, exchange-rate fluctuations, a high level of volatility and limited regulation. In addition, single-country funds may be subject to a higher degree of market risk than diversified funds because of concentration in a specific geographic location. Investing in small- and mid-size companies is more risky than investing in large companies, as they may be more volatile and less liquid than large companies. This document has not been reviewed or approved by any regulatory body.
Foto: Norbert Nagel . La industria de hedge funds podría asistir a una significativa actividad en la segunda mitad de año
Credit Suisse announce the results of its mid-year Hedge Fund Investor Survey, which polled 185 institutional investors on their current strategy appetite and allocation activity. This survey follows Credit Suisse’s Global Annual Investor survey published earlier this year.
Institutional investors responded that they intend to remain active, with 88% indicating that they plan to make additional allocations to hedge funds during the second half of this year. This indicates thatthe industry maysee continued significant levels of allocation activity in the second half of 2013.
In addition, respondents were asked to share their insights into whether they are planning to allocate, maintain or decrease allocations to various hedge fund strategies in the second half of this year. The top 3 strategies by net demand (percentage increasing allocation – percentage decreasing allocation) were:
All respondents: Long/Short Equity- Fundamental (57%), Event Driven (47%) and Global Macro (39%)
Americas: Long/Short Equity- Fundamental (58%), Event Driven (48%) and Global Macro (22%)
Asia: Long/Short Equity- Trading (50%), Long/Short Equity- Fundamental (40%) and Global Macro (40%)
EMEA: Long/Short Equity- Fundamental (57%), Global Macro (52%) and Event Driven (47%)
By comparison, in the annual CS global investor survey at the start of the year, the top three strategies were Long/Short Equity, Emerging Markets Equity and Event Driven.
When evaluated on a gross basis (straight percentage increasing allocation), respondents believed that Long/Short Equity- Fundamental strategies are likely to see the most gross allocation activity in the second half of this year, with 61% of global investors surveyed indicating that they plan to allocate, followed by Event Driven, with 51% planning to allocate. Conversely, investors indicated that Commodities funds are likely to see the most redemption activity over the next six months, with 32% indicating that they plan to lower their allocation to the strategy, followed by Emerging Markets Credit, with 29% planning to reduce their allocation.
“From this mid-year survey, it is clear that investors remain focused on long/short equity and event-driven strategies, particularly those involving fundamental approaches,” said Robert Leonard, Managing Director and Global Head of Capital Services at Credit Suisse. “We believe that some of this activity is being driven by the gradual rotation of capital from fixed-income markets into equities,” Leonard said. “Investors are also reacting to improving global markets and lower correlations by seeking those funds that can differentiate by their stock-picking abilities. Based upon these responses, wewould expect continued strong inflows to the industry during the second half of this year, as additional capital continues to come off the sidelines and into hedge funds.”
Foto: Peter Clayton . Sovereign Bank pasará a llamarse Santander Bank
Sovereign Bank, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Santander Holdings USA and one of the 25 largest retail banks in the United States by deposits, announced that it will begin to market itself under the Santander brand and legally change its name to Santander Bank, on October 17, 2013.
“October 17th will mark a unique occasion for our company. Under the Santander name, we will marry the local insights and relationships of a committed, community-focused bank with the breadth and expertise of a major global financial institution,” said Carlos Garcia, chief corporate affairs and communications officer at Sovereign Bank and Santander Holdings USA.
Sovereign Bank operates in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island, serving 1.7 million retail and commercial clients. It has been a financially autonomous member of the Santander Group since 2009. While the Santander Group has had business operations in the United States for over 30 years, this change marks the first time it will operate as a federally chartered U.S. retail and commercial bank under the Santander brand.
With 102 million customers, over $72 billion in market capitalization and a 10.67% core capital ratio, the Santander Group is one of the world’s strongest financial institutions as well as being one of the most respected and recognized global financial brands. Santander Group’s subsidiaries do business under the unified Santander brand in the U.K., Germany, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Argentina, Spain and Portugal.
In the four years since Sovereign Bank became part of the Santander Group, the Bank’s corporate headquarters were relocated to Boston, it substantially strengthened its capital and improved its asset quality, migrated multiple legacy systems to a single robust technology platform and became a full-fledged commercial bank by changing to a national bank charter.
Enhancements to Accompany Name Change
In addition to its name change, the Bank announced several enhancements to be rolled out between now and October 17th as part of a comprehensive $200+ million three year initiative. “Today’s announcement reflects our commitment to becoming the best bank we can possibly be for both our customers and for our team members,” said David Miree, managing director of the Bank’s retail network.
Wikimedia CommonsThomas Nast . Most Millionaires do not Consider Themselves Wealthy
Wealth is defined as being able to live one’s life with no financial constraints, rather than reaching a specific asset level, but investors feel that it would take at least USD 5 million to be considered wealthy, according to UBS Wealth Management Americas’ fourth UBS Investor Watch.
In addition, of those who have adult children, 80% are providing financial support for adult children, grandchildren or ageing parents. This support ranges from funding education (42%), sharing their home (18%), helping them borrow (20%) and paying for large purchases (18%).
A cash cushion of more than 20% goes beyond providing cash for emergency needs and seems to give investors permission to invest other assets more aggressively. This level of cash has been consistent for three years, despite significant equity market gains during that time.
The survey of high net worth (HNW) and affluent investors found that nearly 70% of investors with more than one million in investable assets do not consider themselves wealthy. Investors define wealth as having no financial constraints (50%), as opposed to never having to work again (10%) or being able to afford a luxurious lifestyle (9%). Investors feel that it would take at least USD 5 million in personal wealth for them to be considered wealthy.
While the ability to afford healthcare and long-term care remains the top personal concern (27%) for investors, their children’s and grandchildren’s financial situations rank second (20%), trumping the ability to afford retirement (14%) and the potential to outlive one’s assets (14%).
Investors continue to hold high levels of cash (23%), and with large cash holdings use them as a way to reduce their overall risk level. Investors find it important to have cash because they know they are extremely unlikely to lose it and generally find peace of mind in holding a lot of cash.
Banorte Managers and BMV in the "bell" at the BMV on Tuesday. “Banorte Does Well When Mexico is Doing Well”
On Tuesday, Guillermo Ortiz, chairman of the Board of Directors of Grupo Financiero Banorte, stressed Mexico’s position and the strength of its macroeconomic indicators, as well as the country’s ongoing reform process, while also stressing that the company is optimistic about Mexico’s performance in the short and medium term.
The executive was speaking after the bell-ringing ceremony to commemorate the Grupo Financiero Banorte’s stock tender offer on the Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV). Ortiz explained that IPOs in emerging markets, which are lower in Mexico than in other emerging markets, are the result of the global recovery “which will revert to normal” following “the distortions in the global economy” as a result of the ample liquidity available and consequent massive capital inflows into emerging markets.
Likewise, the executive pointed out Banorte’s confidence in Mexico in the short and medium term, which is evident in investors’ response to its placement. Meanwhile, Alejandro Valenzuela, Banorte CEO, commented that this is the beginning of an additional commitment to strengthen the financial industry. “Banorte does well when Mexico is doing well,” he said.
For his part, Luis Tellez, president of BMV, the world’s second fastest Stock Exchange after Switzerland, said that since 2005, they experienced an increase from 75,000 to over 8 million operations, and mentioned the financial reform, which according to Tellez “opens exciting possibilities for medium companies” before congratulating the group for the placement of “one of the most dynamic shares in the BMV”.
Banorte obtained about 2,540 million dollars from its July 16th placement, with an overall demand of 3.5 times the offer. Its resources will be channeled to acquire the 4.5% stake which IFC, the World Bank’s financial arm, has on the Mexican bank, to pay off a syndicated loan of $800 million arising from the purchase of Afore Bancomer, and to settle $ 778 million for the consolidation of 100% of the capital of Seguros Banorte Generali, and Banorte Generali Pensions.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrFoto: Medill DC. El mejor banquero central de la historia
According to a new survey by TradeKing Group, investors are split three ways on whether Chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke should continue in his role past January 2014: just 30 percent say they prefer to see him stay, 34 percent say they’d like him to go, and 36 percent are undecided.
The in-house survey of 230 independent investors was conducted July 11-18, 2013 by TradeKing Group.
Weighing-in further on Mr. Bernanke’s tenure, some investors shared these opinions:
“He was responsible for the reaction and he should see it through till there is steady growth should the plan not work as advertised.”
“He’s out of bullets.”
“Although good for markets, Bernanke is…only concerned with re-inflating a bubble that will absolutely devastate the economy when it is burst.”
“I think some of his policies are politically motivated…but change in this area adds to instability.”
“The next one might be even worse.”
Bullish Sentiment Bounces Up from April
While not quite returning to the high of TradeKing’s January 2013 survey, “bullish” sentiment among investors surveyed increased five points over April, reaching 42 percent and pulling closer to matching “neutral” sentiment, which is 47 percent. Sixty-five percent of respondents said they believe the market will end up by 5-10 percent for the year. Slightly more investors share this opinion now than in April (65% in July vs. 60% in April).
It’s All About Interest Rates
Interest rates shot to the top of investors’ trading triggers, receiving 55 percent of responses, up 15 points since April. It was followed by quarterly earnings with 39 percent and U.S. housing at 31 percent of responses.
As to when they expect interest rates to increase, most investors indicated they expect to see meaningful increases within the next 18 months. Twenty-five percent are bracing for changes “in the second half of 2013,” 30 percent believe rates will hold steady until “the first half of 2014,” and 20 percent indicate rates won’t meaningfully rise until “the second half of 2014.”
In addition, when asked: “What do you think is more likely in 2014, inflation or deflation?” an overwhelming 75 percent chose inflation.
TradeKing Group consists of companies that provide online brokerage services, social communities for investors, investor education and more. Its subsidiary, TradeKing, is a nationally licensed online broker/dealer dedicated to empowering the independent, self- directed investor. The platform features powerful online equity, options, ETF, mutual fund and fixed-income trading tools accompanied by a rich set of news, research and analysis capabilities.
The equity risk premium, or ERP, can be defined as the return paid to equity investors in excess of the long-term risk-free rate. It is a key metric for investors looking to set portfolio return expectations and take strategic asset allocation decisions.
It also happens to be one of the most widely discussed issues in portfolio management, filling academic literature with lively debate on whether the ERP is positive, negative, or non- existent.
To complicate matters further, there are multiple ways to calculate the equity risk premium, and each methodology provides a different answer to the fundamental question: what level of excess returns should investors expect from their equity holdings in the future?
In this piece, AXA Investment Managers examines three ways to determine the equity risk premium (ERP), namely the ex- post ERP, the required ERP and the expected ERP, assessing their strengths and flaws.
That these approaches, which rely on different sets of measures, do not produce the same result should not come as a surprise. Yet, in a steady state environment it would be reasonable to expect these values to converge within a narrow range, if not on a single figure.
The average expected ERP over the past decade is roughly 3.5% for US equities as well as for other developed market equities, and 4% for emerging market equities.
The asset manager proposes a synthetic approach, reconciling the three measures by focusing on the long-term equilibrium.
An ERP of 3.5% is consistent with the decomposition of what a steady-state equity return should be.
NASA. RBC WM nombra a Juan Pablo Cortés director del equipo de las Américas
RBC Wealth Management, part of Royal Bank of Canada, has appointed Juan Pablo Cortes as a director, Americas in its London-based UK private client wealth management team.
In this role, Cortes will collaborate with internal teams and work with external advisers to provide wealth management services to Latin American and Iberian high net worth and ultra high net worth clients resident in the UK or overseas. He will report to Martin Heale, head of Americas, private client wealth management.
Cortes has over 16 years of international experience in wealth management, retail and commercial banking in Colombia, Panama, the US and the UK. Prior to joining RBC Wealth Management, he spent two years with UBS Wealth Management where he worked as a client advisor in the Latin America & Caribbean team. He previously spent over three years at Barclays Wealth, first as a business manager and then private banker for the Iberian team, as reported Wealth Adviser.
Philip Harris, head, private client wealth management, UK, says: “As the Latin American market continues to grow and wealth is created, there is increasingly demand among high net worth individuals to partner with wealth managers that understand and can cater to their needs. Juan Pablo’s local knowledge and professional experience make him a valuable asset to our London team as we continue to expand our footprint.
Photo: BenAveling . ¿A Sunny Summer or an Overcast One?
We have enjoyed a sunny stock market climate so far, but we may probably see some clouds within the next few days. The question is whether these will be just passing clouds or will remain throughout the summer.
Stock indices continue to show strength, especially in the USA where they’ve once again set new highs. In Europe, led by the German Dax, indices bounce back trying to reach yearly highs. Following the rises recorded in July, a “small, healthy” correction would be logical, but what levels should indices maintain in order to stay bullish? From a technical point of view, to maintain the bullish structure which began on the summer solstice, we believe that rates should not fall below the 8,000 point levels for the German DAX30, 2,630 points for the EUROSTOXX50, and 1,640 points in the case of SP500. If they don’t fall below these levels, the summer is likely to be hot with widespread temperature rises. Should there be sharper falls, however, it would announce the arrival of considerable storm.
In 1998 we had a bumpy summer. The stock market had been bullish for several consecutive months, until there was an abrupt halt in April. Until a small correction was made which ended in mid-June, coinciding with the expiration of futures (just like this year!) The markets once again recovered until late July, setting new highs by a few points. Further down, you may see the DJ Industrial Average in the summer of ‘98 on the left, and next to it the same American index today. The green line is the 200 session average. The fall of 1998 began on Monday, July 20th, and its equivalent would be today Monday 22nd! Will history repeat itself?
Foto cedidaJohn Bowman. La "crisis de confianza" en el sector financiero lleva a CFA Institute a crear Claritas
Just as the Claritas® Investment Certificate pilot’s results are published John Bowman, CFA, managing director and co-lead of Education at CFA Institute, talks with Funds Society about why they decided to launch the program, their expectations and lessons learned.
Mr. Bowman comments that they had two main reasons for launching the Claritas program; the first came about after a 2-3 year journey talking with industry participants. Realizing organizations were increasingly concerned about their raising risk profiles given inconsistent levels of knowledge between divisions, that “cost them more and more anxiety,” they decided to create a benchmark to establish a basic level of industry knowledge. On the other hand, the fallout of the financial crisis as well the public’s poor perception of the financial industry “which is in a current crisis of trust” made them decide to launch the program. CFA Institute, an organization focused on raising ethical standards, levels of integrity and education for the industry, believe “The Claritas Investment Certificate is one tool that will contribute to restoring trust to the industry.”
The idea behind the Claritas program is to have a single, two-hour, multiple-choice examination where successful participants will understand how the financial industry works, how to navigate it, and will be able to communicate better with the investment professionals they work with.
One week away from the first official examination, Bowman mentions that the pilot had a 82% pass rate but considering its demographics -with average age of 35 and considerable work and education experience– “”the pass rate shouldn’t be considered as completely representative of the future given the average age and experience is likely to decline””.
He comments that from the pilot they learned –and are very proud of- that 85% of candidates would recommend the program to their colleagues, that 76% believed the number one benefit was increased knowledge of the industry, helping them understand how themselves, and their company, fits in the environment, and that 64% said that the program helped them to better understand their ethical obligations within the financial services industry.
Mr. Bowman added that for every investment professional there are 9 individuals working in financial organizations that are not, “so if we, as leaders of the industry, are able to reach and raise standards within this 90 % of the industry we can look at our mission and feel really proud about the progress we are making.”
The Claritas Investment Certificate is for all professional disciplines in the financial services industry outside of investment roles, from client services to compliance; from human resources to IT and operations; from marketing and sales to legal. It is designed for the many different people in the financial services industry who are not directly involved in analysing or making investment decisions.
