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Good News

2013 is not quite turning out as predicted. The tremendous rally in markets since summer 2012 – undeniably led by European Central Bank president Draghi’s pledge to preserve the euro and the move towards potentially unlimited quantitative easing in the US – appears to be grinding to a halt. Economists had been widely predicting a raft of soft data globally into the second quarter of this year, but instead macroeconomic releases have generally been brighter than anticipated, particularly in the US. But the prospect of the return to a more normal environment, one in which policy begins to take a back-seat to growth, has not been well-received by markets addicted to stimulus. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has been talking in more definitive terms about an exit strategy from unconventional monetary policy. At its meeting in June it said that it could begin tapering its asset purchases later this year and potentially end them by mid-

2014. Volatility returned to markets globally during what became a broad sell-off that has encompassed both equities and bonds. The withdrawal of US ‘easy money’ is something that the world fears – not simply because of the risk of a policy error, but because a return to fundamental-based investing will have to occur if it does work – something that could greatly affect areas of the capital market that have seen substantial inflows, such as emerging market (EM) debt.

The pace of economic recovery will be inconsistent across economies globally, so greater care will have to be taken with asset allocation decisions.

The long march

We are positive about the US, which remains one of our overweights. It arguably led the way into the financial crisis and it now appears to be leading the way out. The widely predicted soft patch in US growth has not manifested itself as dramatically as analysts thought it would. Despite the fiscal drag from the increase in payroll tax and the automatic spending cuts of the budget ‘sequester’, first quarter US GDP growth at 1.8% (quarter-on-quarter, annualised) is, we feel, a respectable result. There are several indicators that suggest that the US private sector recovery could become more visible in the second half of the year (chart 1). The keenly-watched non-farm payrolls employment report continues to show steady job creation. Adding further cause for optimism, the weakness seen in oil & gasoline prices should be putting money in Americans’ pockets at the same time that rising house prices are boosting consumer confidence. Taking these factors into consideration, the fact that the US Fed is talking in more certain terms about tapering its asset purchases should not come as too much of a shock. For our own part, we expect the march back to normality will be a gradual process rather than a sudden event, and we continue to believe the Fed will more likely err on the side of caution. In the meantime market volatility is likely to persist until investors feel more comfortable about the balance between policy and growth.

Chart 1: Recovery underway in US housing and autos

Rising sun

We are also currently overweight Japan, which we believe could be one of the brighter spots within the global economy. The country is experiencing a dramatic change in policy regime, with two of the government’s three ‘arrows’ for growth already in flight: hyper easy monetary policy and increased government spending. Early this year, the BoJ adopted a 2% inflation target and introduced an open-ended asset purchase plan, later pledging to double the Japanese monetary base over two years. The hope here is that the scale of the intervention will break the deflationary mentality that has prevailed in Japan since the advent of the ‘lost decade’. We can probably expect these bold measures to continue – including more related to the third policy ‘arrow’ of longer-term structural reforms. Mr Abe has just outlined a series of goals, which he hopes will lift Japan’s growth rate to 3% by 2020. These include increasing private-sector investment, infrastructure expenditure, encouraging more women into work, and deregulation of goods, capital and labour markets.

There is already some evidence that Mr Abe’s policies are gaining traction in the economy: Japanese GDP growth’s surge to 4.1% (annualised) in the first quarter and the consumer prices index moving out of negative territory for the first time in seven months in May together suggest that ‘Abenomics’ is having the desired impact.

Consumer and business confidence has been improving and the country is also beginning to see upgrades to company earnings forecasts. That said, the recent jump in government bond yields and equity market volatility has raised some doubts about the efficacy and sustainability of the policy shift. Investors are likely to remain sensitive to these issues and will require reassurances that policy changes will be managed carefully.

Opinion column by Bill McQuaker, Deputy Head of Equities for Henderson Global Investors.

Banco Santander Continues to Progress in Its Return to Colombia

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Banco Santander sigue avanzando en su regreso a Colombia — . Banco Santander Continues to Progress in Its Return to Colombia

As reported this week by Colombian newspaper, La República Banco Santander recently requested authorization from the Colombian authorities to re-operate as a bank in the country, an announcement which has been a surprise to many, as the Spanish bank sold its local assets to Chilean bank CorpBanca, just eighteen months ago, explaining that it would concentrate its operations in those places which were reporting better results.

The Colombian Financial Superintendence authorized the Spanish institution to establish the bank, which would in this way seek to restore its place in the country’s financial market. According to La Republica, the Spanish company’s strategy would focus on recapturing large clients and on reappointing the principal managers who were responsible for managing the largest accounts, something which Santander already seems to be doing. According to sources familiar with the transaction, the bank “is hiring former employees, which means their clients will follow.”

Daniel Lozano, director of Serfinco Economic Studies, sees the return of Santander as proof that foreign companies continue to see the local banking system as highly attractive, which highlights that there is plenty of room still available within the sector.

The low level of financial access and high intermediation margins are some of the opportunities which Colombia offers, and would be precisely what Santander, which during its earlier stage grew in line with its objectives, is looking for. However, firstly the Colombian crisis of 1999 and later, the Spanish banking problems in the current European crisis, slowed Santander’s pretensions, forcing it to exit the industry in Colombia.

Santander returns with capital stock of 90.5 billion Colombian pesos and, in accordance with the institution’s composition, Santander LatAm Banks Administration (Ablasa), the subsidiary that manages Santander Group’s operations in the region, holds 94.8% equity interest, while Santusa Holding, a company which administers securities of Spanish banks, will hold 5.1% of the total. The rest is owned by Jaime Romagosa Soler, Juan Carlos Moscote Gneco and Henry Forero Ramírez with 0.002% each.

However, even though it has already received authorization, there are still a few registration steps missing, so Santander‘s return will still take some time.

We Look for Growth Opportunities and can Identify Beneficiaries of the US Recovery

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Podemos reconocer a aquellos que se van a beneficiar de la recuperación de EE.UU. — Wikimedia CommonsPhoto: hu:User:Totya. We Look for Growth Opportunities and can Identify Beneficiaries of the US Recovery

Our forecasts for economic growth in the developing world have consistently been materially higher than those for the developed world. We have also seen fairly steady downgrades to our expectations for growth in developed economies for some time. That environment now appears to be changing a little as we detect some signs of better news from a number of developed countries, while many emerging economies are experiencing a harsher background.

We remain keen on high yielders, as long as they are supported by growing cash flows.

In the US, we see fairly healthy economic momentum driven by a good recovery in consumer confidence. Corporate spending remains slow, despite strong balance sheets, but we expect a pick-up as managements become more confident of growth, and the average age of equipment becomes even longer. In light of this improvement and to avoid the risk of inflating bubbles, the Federal Reserve has discussed “tapering” its quantitative easing (QE) program, causing a material rise in bond yields which, in time, will push up financing costs for many borrowers, particularly in the all-important mortgage market. However, we believe affordability remains good and do not expect recent moves to derail the recovery.

In the euro area we see marginally better news,but clearly from very depressed levels. Germany remains relatively healthy and we now see less negative manufacturing and consumer confidence surveys from the periphery, with Spain and Greece worthy of note. In the UK, the housing market and consumer expenditure appear reasonable and we anticipate some recovery in construction and North Sea Oil output in the second half. There is little sign of an improvement in exports but a strengthening US economy could improve matters. We currently believe that the risks to our forecasts lie on the upside.

Pharmaceuticals appear more attractive than for some time with new approvals rising and the number of potential areas for new drugs growing.

In Japan “Abenomics” is already having a worthwhile impact.Consumer confidence is up significantly, the trade balance has improved, business confidence shows some recovery and consumer price changes in general have moved up to around flat. We have raised our GDP forecast for Japan for this year to 2.5%.

Conversely China is suffering from demographic issues, inflation risks and the desired shift in the economy from investment to consumption is proving hard to engineer. In addition, the authorities appear determined to resolve the problems caused by the secondary banks, leading to a short-term credit squeeze. In this environment, we are more cautious on growth in the immediate future.

Spreads on corporate and emerging market debt have risen materially and appear relatively attractive.

Despite the dramatic moves in many asset prices, we have made no material changes to our equity strategies. We remain keen on high yielders, as long as they are supported by growing cash flows. We look for growth opportunities and can identify beneficiaries of the US recovery. We believe that the strong will get stronger and appropriate M&A activity can be beneficial. Rising bond yields will make high yielding equities that are regarded as bond-proxies less attractive, but we have never been enthusiastic about this type of stock. Within defensives, pharmaceuticals appear more attractive than for some time with new approvals rising and the number of potential areas for new drugs growing.

We believe that the reasons for tapering, reflecting a more robust US economy and to reduce the risks of financial bubbles, are benign. Clearly many asset markets have benefited from QE, which will decline, albeit gradually. Inevitability investors in some risk assets feel that safer investments, now with higher yields, appear a better alternative. This may cause further short-term volatility. However, the growth environment and corporate earnings outlook are reasonable and valuations have improved. We will seek opportunities to add to equities on setbacks. We expect official interest rates to remain unchanged for some time in major markets and, although yield curves could steepen further, we do not forecast a significant rise in government bond yields in the near future. Despite this, we remain underweight due to valuation levels. Spreads on corporate and emerging market debt have risen materially and appear relatively attractive. Again, further weaknesses in these assets could offer buying opportunities.

Opinion column by Mark Burgess, Chief Investment Officer at Threadneedle

Banca March and Andbank Give Another Twist to the Sale of Inversis

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Banca March y Andbank dan una nueva vuelta de tuerca en la venta de Inversis — . Banca March and Andbank Give Another Twist to the Sale of Inversis

One of the most complicated operations which have been seen recently in the Spanish financial market has taken another twist. After an unexpected move by Banca March, one of Inversis’ shareholders, Andbank will finally be taking over Inversis’ private retail banking business, instead of Andorra Private Banking, through Banco de Madrid. Meanwhile, Banca March will take over Inversis’ technology platform, but will later sell 50% to the Portuguese group, Orey Antunes. Likewise, Andbank will become a technological client of Inversis.

According to a statement submitted to the CNMV, Banca March has used its rights of first refusal on the sale of Banco Inversis, whose bid had been won by Andorra Private Banking through Banco de Madrid, by offering 212 million Euros on June 28^th. Shareholders representing more than 92% of the offer, including Bankia, Sabadell and CajaMar had accepted this offer. Banca March has decided to “exercise its preemptive right of acquisition on the sale of Banco Inversis SA to ensure and maintain the quality of service to its clients and to develop its institutional business, both within Spain and in its international expansion.”

Banca March will pay 217.4 million Euros for Inversis, and will then sell Inversis’ private retail banking business to Andbank for 179.8 million Euros. The difference, which is just under 38 million Euros, will be what Banca March will pay for Inversis’ technology platform. This agreement will become effective “once all necessary corporate transactions have been completed and all authorizations have been received.”

Also, once the segregation of its retail banking business is carried out, Banca March will sell a 50% share of Banco Inversis to the Portuguese Group Orey Antunes, subject to the relevant approvals, “in order to continue to invest jointly in the development of the technology platform and to continue to promote institutional business on a national and international level.” The price of this last sale has not been revealed.

BPA’s reaction is as yet unknown; it had increased its bid on Inversis twice over the past few months to beat Andbank. In any case, the price Andabank will have to pay, which equals BPA’s previous offer, is no bargain, according to industry sources. “Especially considering they will not acquire the technology platform,” the expert concluded.

Perfecto, a Spanish Touch in Miami’s Financial Heart

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Perfecto, un toque español en el corazón financiero de Miami — Wikimedia CommonsPerfecto Restaurant in Miami. Perfecto, a Spanish Touch in Miami’s Financial Heart

Perfecto a new Spanish restaurant, which avoids the traditional concept, has just opened its doors in Miami, Perfecto’s precursors try to provide a new twist, with contemporary cuisine, yet without forgetting the roots of traditional Spanish food and also with the addition of a cocktail bar, yes, in true Spanish style.

Perfecto, located in Brickell Avenue, right in Miami’s financial center, opened to the public with the aim of becoming a reference point in the city, where Spanish supply in general is not abundant, and even less so in the category in which its owners have ventured and in which they are looking to get stronger.

The concept is tapas, but “different tapas”, even incorporating the nitrogen technique in the kitchen for the elaboration of desserts. “The offer is very unusual, it’s different to all the others,” says Oscar Manresa, head of Perfecto, to Funds Society. Besides the cuisine with which they hope to conquer the Miami public, they pay great attention to detail. “Creating an ambience is as important as the food, “says Manresa.

Thanks to an important fusion of cultures, Miami is a city with a rich and abundant gastronomic offer, but, with few exceptions, Spanish food has not been well represented. It is exactly for that reason, and with the intention of providing a new twist and to acquire the hold of the gap that exists in the market, that Perfecto has appointed Daniel Torres Portes, a Spanish chef with an outstanding career and straight from Barcelona, as head chef.

Torres has been a culinary instructor in the Arnadi (Hofmann) School of Hospitality. Before joining this project in Miami, for which he, together with his wife, did not hesitate to pack their bags a few months ago, he worked in Barcelona at the Hofmann restaurant, in the Garden del Hotel Rey Juan Carlos I and in the restaurant of the Palau de la Musica, amongst others.

In addition to the soul of the kitchen, the venture’s management will be in the hands of Oscar Manresa, a professional with over 18 years experience in the sector in Spain, especially in Catalonia, where he manages more than 10 establishments ranging from the cocktails bar at the Hotel Palace in Barcelona, Rien de Rien, to several venues and trendy establishments in Barcelona.

Manresa and Torres have told Funds Society how, months ago, they decided to jump on the bandwagon, on the idea of a group of investors, some of them friends, to take the best out of each of the establishments that Manresa had managed, andfuse all that together into one “perfect” venue in Miami, hence the name. Perfecto also has an impeccable decor with a certain rustic touch.

Manresa has planned to stay in Miami during the business’ first stage, but once the restaurant is on track and in full and smooth operation, he hopes to be able to divide his time between the two cities, in order to continue to operate his business in Spain. He admits that he did not hesitate in packing his bags to pursue this idea. “In Spain it is difficult to stay afloat, let alone to grow in this time of crisis.”

The venue is transformed after dark and “Perfecto” with its large terrace overlooking Brickell Avenue, becomes a cocktail bar, which is also livened up with the music of a DJ, also from Barcelona. “The concept of food & music is a formula that has worked for me in the venues I’ve opened,” says Manresa, who hopes to continue on that same path with Perfecto.

El mercado de commodities desciende en junio ante las señales de ralentización en China

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El mercado de commodities disminuyó en junio debido a que la incertidumbre sobre la recuperación económica global sigue siendo alta, de acuerdo a un análisis de Credit Suisse.

En este sentido, Nelson Louie, responsable global de Commodities en Credit Suisse Asset Management dijo que las noticias macroeconómicas que llegaron de China en junio pesaron sobre el mercado de commodities. “Con China actualmente registrando un ritmo de crecimiento más moderado y modesto y con una mejora modesta en otros lugares, lo más probable es que las divergencias de suministro están jugando un papel cada vez más protagonista en un momento en que la mayor correlación observada entre otras clases de activos y los productos básicos desde 2008 ha comenzado a normalizarse. Dentro de la tendencia actual, el ritmo de crecimiento de la oferta es probable que siga siendo el factor clave en el impulso de rendimientos en commodities“, subrayó.

El Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index Total Return descendió 4.71% en junio. En total, 15 de los 22 componentes del índice registraron resultados negativos. El sector de los metales preciosos fue el sector que peor desempeño registró, que bajó un 12,27% ante los persistentes temores sobre el plan de la Fed de acabar con su programa de estímulo monetario y el rally del dólar.

En cuanto a los metales industriales, estos disminuyeron 7.11%, tal y como mostró un estudio sobre la actividad manufacturera en China, que se debilitó a un mínimo de nueve meses en junio ya que la demanda se tambaleó. En este sentido, Credit Suisse subraya que estas cifras pueden aumentar la presión sobre el Banco Central chino para que afloje su política.

En cuanto a la agricultura, junio fue el mes más bajo, por debajo del 4,16% debido a una presión mayor de mayores existencias de maíz, mayores de las esperadas, y los datos adicionales que muestran mayores zonas de cultivo plantadas a pesar de los retrasos de plantación por problemas relacionados con las temperaturas. Las noticias de que la producción de trigo en Australia aumentó un 15% respecto al mismo periodo del año anterior se sumó también a las preocupaciones sobre los suministros mundiales más grandes. Australia es uno de los mayores exportadores mundiales de trigo.

La energía disminuyó un 2,55%, liderado por gas natural, tras las mayores inyecciones de almacenamiento, según lo informado por la Administración de Energía estadounidense. La ganadería registró el mejor desempeño del sector, que subió un 3,10%.

Hedge Fund Association Applauds SEC for Lifting Ban on Hedge Fund Advertising

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The Securities and Exchange Commission has now adopted final rules in connection with the Jumpstart Our Business Startups (JOBS) Act, lifting an 80 year old ban on general solicitation and allowing hedge fund managers to advertise. The Hedge Fund Association (HFA) and its members throughout the United States applaud the SEC’s decision as a necessary modernization of the securities laws.

Fundamentally, we believe that these new rules will: (i) increase public transparency regarding the alternative investment industry, including hedge funds; and (ii) facilitate capital formation and ultimately enhance the capital markets. Though the HFA views this development as generally positive, we await publication of the new rules to determine whether particular requirements impose an unnecessary burden on our members. We are in the process of reviewing the text of the final rules, as well as gathering feedback from our members, at which time we will provide a more comprehensive commentary on behalf of the hedge fund industry. The HFA previously provided valuable comments to and materially influenced relevant provisions of The Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.

The Hedge Fund Association is an international not-for-profit organization made up of hedge funds, funds of hedge funds, family offices, high-net-worth individuals and service providers. In the U.S., the HFA has chapters in the Northeast, Southeast, Midwest and on the West Coast. Internationally, the HFA has chapters in Europe, Asia, Australia, Latin America and the Cayman Islands. HFA works on behalf of the entire hedge fund industry, including more than 9,500 hedge funds in the U.S. and abroad which collectively manage in excess of $2 trillion in assets, as well as sophisticated investors and industry service providers.

Pimco Total Return Suffers Outflows of $9.6 billion in June

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Morningstar reported today estimated U.S. mutual fund asset flows for June 2013. Investors withdrew $43.8 billion from taxable-bond funds and $16.4 billion from municipal-bond funds, making June the worst month on record for bond funds in terms of total outflows. Long-term funds overall shed $47.3 billion, the largest monthly outflow since $105.6 billion in October 2008

Additional highlights from Morningstar’s report on mutual fund flows:

Intermediate-term bond funds lost $24.4 billion in June, dragged down by outflows of $9.6 billion from PIMCO Total Return. DoubleLine Total Return saw redemptions of $1.2 billion, its first monthly outflow. Other weak-performing bond categories included long government, emerging-markets bond, and inflation-protected bond.
Not all fixed-income categories suffered in June and the year-to-date period. Bank-loan funds have collected more assets than any other category in 2013, and nontraditional bond has come in third.
International-equity and alternative funds had net inflows in June. Among international-equity funds, Oakmark International, which has a Morningstar Analyst Rating™ of Gold, continued its string of strong inflows, collecting $753 million. The fund has doubled in size in the last year, absorbing nearly $5.0 billion and achieving a 35 percent return year to date.
At the firm level, PIMCO led outflows, with redemptions of $14.5 billion, followed by Fidelity with $5.1 billion. Vanguard saw its first firm-level outflows (including exchanged-traded and money market funds) in nearly 20 years. MFS topped all providers with inflows of $1.4 billion.

Elizabeth A. Duke Submits Resignation as a Member of the Board of Governors of the FED

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Elizabeth A. Duke submitted her resignation Thursday as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, effective August 31, 2013.

Duke, who has been a member of the Board since August 5, 2008, submitted her letter of resignation to President Obama. She has made no announcements about her future plans.

“Betsy has made invaluable contributions to the Federal Reserve and to the country during her five years at the Board,” said Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke. “She brought fresh ideas grounded in her deep knowledge of the banking industry and the real-world dynamic between borrowers and lenders. I wish her the best in her future endeavors.”

Duke, 60, was appointed to the Board by President Bush to fill an unexpired term that ended January 31, 2012. During her time on the Board she served as Chairman of both the Committee on Consumer and Community Affairs and the Subcommittee on Supervision and Regulation of Community and Small Regional Banking Organizations.

Before joining the Board, Duke was Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of TowneBank, a Virginia-based community bank. Prior to that, she served as an Executive Vice President at Wachovia Bank and as an Executive Vice President at SouthTrust Bank. Earlier in her career, Ms. Duke was President and Chief Executive Officer of Bank of Tidewater, based in Virginia Beach, Virginia.

Evercore to Establish a Private Capital Advisory Business

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Evercore announced that it intends to expand its global investment banking platform by establishing a Private Capital Advisory (“PCA”) business focused on secondary transactions for private funds interests. This initiative significantly expands the services that Evercore offers to leading institutional investors and Fund sponsors, and complements the capital raising advisory services provided by Evercore’s Private Funds Group and the strategic and merger advisory services offered by Evercore’s Advisory business generally, said the firm in a press release.

Nigel Dawn and Nicolas Lanel have agreed to join Evercore to lead the business. Mr. Dawn will run PCA globally while Mr. Lanel will head up the European operation. Mr. Dawn, who was most recently Managing Director and Global Co-Head of the Private Funds Group at UBS, is a recognized leader in this business bringing more than twenty years of experience advising investors and fund sponsors. Mr. Lanel was most recently Managing Director and Global Co-Head of Secondary Advisory at UBS, where he led the expansion of the business into Europe. The PCA business will be majority owned by Evercore with key principals, including Mr. Dawn and Mr. Lanel, owning the minority stake. The Evercore PCA business is expected to launch during the second half of 2013 following the recruiting of additional professionals to support the business in North America and Europe.

“The PCA business fits perfectly into the Evercore model of providing independent advisory services to our clients based on our ideas, our intellectual capital and our relationships. We believe this business leverages the relationship network and market presence of our firm.” said Ralph Schlosstein, President and Chief Executive Officer of Evercore.

Nigel Dawn was a Managing Director and Global Co-Head of the Private Funds Group at UBS. Mr. Dawn was the founder and leader of the Secondary Market Advisory team within the Private Funds Group at UBS, having advised on over $25 billion of secondary transactions. Clients have included leading US public investors, university endowments, banks, insurance companies, hedge funds and leading private equity general partners. Previously, he was head of UBS Investment Bank’s Third-Party Private Equity Funds Team. Prior to joining UBS, Nigel worked at Booz, Allen & Hamilton in New York, and in Asia with Standard Chartered Bank. Nigel graduated from Newcastle University with a Bachelor of Arts degree in East Asian Politics and earned his MBA at Columbia Business School.

Nicolas Lanel was a Managing Director at UBS and was most recently Global Co-Head of its Secondary Markets Advisory group. He established the practice in Europe in 2007, having joined the funds placement team of UBS in 2004, where he initially focused on coverage of institutional investors in Europe and the Middle East. Mr. Lanel has led a number of notable secondary transactions in Europe for clients including financial institutions, pension funds, large family offices and fund sponsors. Mr. Lanel has 20 years of experience in private equity and corporate advisory, having worked previously with the principal investment team at Paribas and at Deutsche Bank in Toronto, London and New York. He will be joining Evercore in October this year. Mr. Lanel earned a Master’s degree in management at ESCP-Europe.