The Fed Sows Doubts About the Pace of Future Cuts

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Photo courtesyJerome Powell, Chair of the Fed

At Its October Meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) Cut Rates by 25 Basis Points, as Expected, Setting the Target Range for Federal Funds at 3.75%-4.0%.
For experts, the most relevant point was that the statement accompanying this decision reiterated concern about the labor market’s development, noting that “the risks to employment have increased in recent months,” while maintaining more moderate language regarding inflation, describing it only as “slightly elevated.”

Powell has emphasized data dependence in 12 unique speeches in 2025. For Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo, global co-CIO of Multi-Asset Solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, the conclusion of this meeting is clear: policy has been set on “autopilot,” following the trajectory outlined by the dot plot, unless new reliable data changes the outlook.

“A single moderate inflation release, well-anchored expectations, and anecdotal signs of cooling support a cautious stance toward rate cuts. If conditions hold, another 25 basis point cut is likely at the December meeting,” says Wilson-Elizondo.

In the view of Jean Boivin, Head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, the Fed reaffirmed that the softening of the labor market remains a key factor. “We see a weaker labor market as helping to reduce inflation and allowing the Fed to lower interest rates. U.S. private sector indicators and state-level unemployment claims point to greater moderation in the labor market, although without a sharp deterioration that would raise concerns about a more pronounced slowdown. We are monitoring alternative data sources while we await the end of the government shutdown to analyze the September and October data for confirmation,” notes Boivin.

Upcoming Cuts


With this cut, justified by economic conditions, the Fed underlined its independence from political pressures. And despite having restarted the rate-cutting cycle, Powell was cautious during his remarks at the press conference following the meeting, stating that a rate cut in December is “far from a foregone conclusion,” which rattled markets that had already fully priced in a new cut.

“At the same time, the Fed acknowledged that the current government shutdown has limited access to economic data. This lack of visibility led the Fed to refrain from offering clear guidance on whether another cut will occur at the December 2025 meeting. Powell’s statements suggest that the Fed assumes the shutdown could extend through December 2025. Once the shutdown ends and macroeconomic data becomes available, we expect it to support a rate cut in December 2025,” adds Ray Sharma-Ong, Deputy Global Head of Multi-Asset Bespoke Solutions at Aberdeen Investments.

Tiffany Wilding, economist at PIMCO, interprets Powell’s clear statements on the December meeting as an effort to push back against market pricing. “Just before the October meeting, shorter-term federal funds futures contracts priced in a probability above 90% for a December cut. Powell’s comments worked. At the time of writing, the market-implied probability of a December cut has dropped to about 70%. A cut in December remains our base case, but with less certainty,” she explains.

Even with the Fed’s narrative around lack of data visibility, investment firms are confident that further rate cuts are coming. For example, UBS Global Wealth Management maintains its forecast of two additional cuts between now and early 2026—with improved liquidity continuing to support risk assets. For David Kohl, Chief Economist at Julius Baer, the October rate cut is a prelude to further reductions in the cost of money. “The FOMC reduced its benchmark interest rate and opened the debate about another cut at the next meeting. The differing stances within the FOMC and the lack of labor market data due to the government shutdown make it difficult to determine the interest rate path at this time. We continue to expect additional 25 basis point cuts at future FOMC meetings amid slower job growth,” he states.

“Powell also highlighted the two dissents in the FOMC decision as evidence that the Committee is not following a preset course. He reinforced this more hawkish tone by suggesting that data uncertainty. Looking ahead, we expect this lack of information to result in a more dovish stance. We foresee an additional cut before year-end, in line with this dynamic and with the revealed preference for a more accommodative stance, evidenced in the early end to QT,” adds Max Stainton, Senior Global Macro Strategist at Fidelity International.

The End of QT


In the view of Max Stainton, Senior Global Macro Strategist at Fidelity International, this accommodative (or dovish) stance was reinforced by the announcement of an early end to Quantitative Tightening (QT), now scheduled for December 1, with reinvestments in MBS to be redirected to Treasury bills starting on that same date.

“Although most analysts expected this announcement at the December FOMC meeting, recent tensions in funding markets appear to have unsettled the Committee about the possibility of increased interest rate volatility, caused by a slight shortage of reserves. Taken together, this continues to demonstrate the Fed’s shift toward greater attention to labor market developments,” he explains.

According to Eric Winograd, Chief U.S. Economist at AllianceBernstein, today’s decision to stop reducing Treasury holdings was not a surprise and should not have significant implications for markets or the economy. “The Fed will continue reducing its holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS), but maturities of these will be reinvested in Treasury bills, thus helping the Fed move toward a balance sheet composed solely of Treasury securities, as is its goal,” he indicates.

Regarding QT, he explains that it has largely proceeded as the Fed expected: in the background, with about $5 billion over recent months, and the change now announced is trivial. “Under the current framework for implementing monetary policy, the Fed seeks to maintain bank reserves at ample levels, which means not testing the lower bounds of the market’s tolerance for balance sheet reduction. In fact, the Fed’s balance sheet has already been reduced from a peak of approximately $9 trillion to the current $6.5 trillion,” he clarifies.

In essence, the end of quantitative tightening mainly affects the reserve structure and the functioning of the money market and says little about the future path of official interest rates. That said, the timetable outlined by the Fed disappointed markets, which were expecting earlier implementation in November 2025. “Equity and interest rate markets reacted negatively to Powell’s hawkish tone during the press conference, reinforcing the framework that bad news is good news: weaker economic data would likely lead to greater easing, which could support equity markets,” notes Sharma-Ong.

Vaca Muerta, the Promise of Dollar Generation

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Pixabay CC0 Public Domain

Investment Opportunities for Argentina

As the second-largest shale gas reserve and fourth-largest shale oil reserve in the world, Vaca Muerta is crucial to Argentina’s economy. There is a tacit consensus between the ruling party and the opposition on the importance of its development—resulting in something nearly unprecedented in the country: continuity in public policies that encourage significant investment in this geographical area, despite the deep political divide that splits Argentina into two nearly irreconcilable halves.

Thanks to the production of unconventional hydrocarbons from Vaca Muerta, the South American country became a net energy exporter again in 2024.

In the early 2000s, the lack of clear regulations and a policy of frozen service tariffs led to disinvestment in the sector, turning Argentina into an energy importer—primarily of gas.

In the first half of 2025, the country recorded its highest energy trade surplus in the last 35 years: $3.761 billion, based on a 10.8% increase in exports and a 23.6% drop in energy imports, according to official data. Despite the international context—marked by a significant drop in oil prices—Argentina’s energy trade balance grew 53% compared to the same period in 2024.

By exporting energy, the country adds to the international currency it already generates through its agribusiness exports, which could translate into more employment and long-term economic stability for a nation plagued by recurring economic crises.

According to the study “El Campo Argentino en Números” by FADA (Agro Foundation for the Development of Argentina), agri-food and agribusiness exports contribute six out of every ten dollars of the country’s total exports.

Of the total dollars contributed, 62% come from agricultural manufacturing, 37% from primary products, and only 1% from inputs and machinery. During the first half of 2025, Argentina’s agro-industrial exports totaled $23.29 billion.

There is broad consensus that Vaca Muerta could generate up to $30 billion in annual exports by 2030—surpassing the current contribution of Argentina’s agricultural exports.

Vaca Muerta: Just a Promise for Investors?

Despite the strong figures, Vaca Muerta remains only a promise for investors in Argentine energy-related assets, according to market sources.

Luis Requesens, CIIA analyst and Managing Partner at Andes Wealth Management, a wealth management firm, does not see the sector as particularly attractive at the moment due to the oil price situation, which is causing companies to focus more on cost structures. In Vaca Muerta, “the idea is beautiful, but under current conditions, it’s not very profitable,” he says.

“The future looks bright, but today it’s all about outflows,” he elaborates. “So, we prefer investments with returns much closer in time.” Specifically, Andes WM is looking to Europe, where there is “an investment boom in renewable energy to avoid dependence on oil and gas from Russia.”

“In Argentina, you have to deal with a tax structure, with other cost structures, with higher interest rates, and local players are competing with the same shale oil and gas from the U.S. So yes, it’s a nice idea—but at best, it feels distant,” he says bluntly.

At Delphos Investment, Leonardo Chialva agrees: “Vaca Muerta is a puzzle with pieces still missing. Right now, it’s plateauing—there’s no way to get the oil out,” he says in reference to the new investments underway and those still needed. “And Vaca Muerta is highly sensitive to international oil prices. At the end of the day, it’s still a commodity, which fell 30% this year. Companies are starting to match their investments to their cash flows,” he concludes.

Meanwhile, energy expert Roberto Carnicier believes that in the long term, “the growth trend will not change. Betting on and continuing to develop Vaca Muerta is essential to unlock our economic history.”

For investors, the field remains a distant promise—the international context of commodity prices does not help.

The Export Potential of Vaca Muerta

“Despite internal and external challenges, Vaca Muerta has shown steady growth, evolving from a promise in the early 2010s to a clear and robust reality today—mainly due to the world-class geological quality of the reservoir,” notes PwC in its April 2025 report “Vaca Muerta: El Futuro de Argentina.”

In terms of shale gas, only China surpasses Argentina in available resources. For shale oil, Argentina ranks just behind Russia, the United States, and China.

At a national level, Argentina’s recurring challenge is its external constraint—the lack of foreign currency. This creates production bottlenecks in an economy with a structural demand for U.S. dollars due to inflation history and frequent peso devaluations.

Much of Argentina’s public and private debt is denominated in dollars, and the state needs foreign currency to pay interest and principal to international lenders and bondholders. If it cannot obtain these through exports, it must resort to new borrowing or use Central Bank reserves—fueling the economy’s vicious cycle.

With Vaca Muerta, Argentina could double its crude oil output in the coming years to reach 1 million barrels per day, potentially generating $18 billion in exports by 2026 and achieving a $12.5 billion energy trade surplus.

In terms of gas, Argentina could become self-sufficient and develop a strategic resource to support global decarbonization efforts. The country could export gas to the region—especially to Chile and Brazil—and eventually to global markets via a liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant, as detailed on the website of YPF, Argentina’s largest oil company and the main investor in Vaca Muerta.

Argentina expects an $8 billion energy trade surplus in 2025. “Before the construction of the (Presidente Néstor Kirchner) gas pipeline, the deficit was $4.5 billion, so we’re talking about an $11 billion turnaround,” says Daniel Gerold, head of G&G Energy Consultants and one of the country’s leading energy consultants, speaking to Funds Society. Private estimates place the 2025 surplus between $5 and $6 billion.

Roberto Carnicier, Director of the Energy, Gas, and Oil Program at Universidad Austral, states that with the six LNG shipping projects Argentina is developing in partnership with local and international firms, the country could generate over $13 billion annually.

In summary, there is consensus that Vaca Muerta could generate $30 billion in annual exports by 2030—exceeding the current contribution of Argentina’s agricultural exports.

“In Argentina, you have to deal with a tax structure, with other cost structures, with higher interest rates, and local players are competing with the same shale oil and gas from the U.S. So yes, it’s a nice idea—but at best, it feels distant.”

More and More Investment

Carnicier emphasizes the key role of YPF and its current CEO, Horacio Marín, in Vaca Muerta’s development. Marín, who previously spent nearly 36 years at Tecpetrol (a subsidiary of the powerful Techint Group, led by businessman Paolo Rocca), has promoted strategic partnerships from day one with companies that provide both technical and financial capacity.

In the last seven years, YPF has partnered with international companies, and together they have invested over $11 billion since development began in Vaca Muerta.

In May 2024, construction began on the Vaca Muerta Sur oil pipeline, with an estimated $2.5 billion investment. It will allow the transport of 500,000 barrels of oil per day and includes the construction of a deep-water port in Río Negro. Also underway are the Duplicar and Triplicar projects by OldelVal (currently the main pipeline in the basin), the expansion of the Néstor Kirchner Gas Pipeline, and the reversal of the TGN Gas Pipeline, which will eliminate the need for gas imports from Bolivia, supply gas to northern provinces, and open an export route to Brazil.

“These projects, expected to be operational between 2025 and 2028, will be crucial to realizing the formation’s production plans by the end of the decade. But Vaca Muerta’s productive capacity will require even more infrastructure investment,” warns the PwC report.

“In Vaca Muerta, there are two types of investment,” explains Daniel Gerold from G&G Energy Consultants. “One is for increasing oil and gas production, and the other relates to infrastructure works, which require around $14 billion,” he adds.

Still, Vaca Muerta is exposed not only to the international price of oil but also to the global interest rate environment, which could jeopardize project financing. “Even if its development is delayed, Vaca Muerta is here to stay,” says Fernando Heredia, Economics and Energy Editor at Forbes and energy columnist for CNN Radio.

Vaca Muerta’s investment incentives have achieved the impossible: consensus between government and opposition on the strategic importance of developing these resources.

Carlos Rodríguez Aspirichaga Is the New Head of Citi Private Bank Mexico

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Linkedin Carlos Rodríguez Aspirichaga

Citi Private Bank Mexico announced on the social network LinkedIn the appointment of Carlos Rodríguez Aspirichaga as the new head of the institution, responsible for driving growth strategies and ensuring financial solutions tailored to the needs of Ultra High Net Worth (UHNW) clients in Mexico.

“His knowledge of complex cross-border strategies and multiple jurisdictions for Mexican families will be key to strengthening our offering and service to our clients,” the note states.

Aspirichaga is a wealth management executive with more than 25 years of experience in building and expanding the high-net-worth segment in the United States and Latin America. The banker “advises international UHNW families on cross-border wealth strategies, with experience in investment architecture, credit solutions, and estate planning frameworks that work seamlessly across different jurisdictions,” according to his LinkedIn profile.

To date, Aspirichaga has been serving as a financial advisor at UBS in Miami, where he led cross-border strategies for Mexican families. Previously, he worked for eight years at JP Morgan Private Bank, leading the launch of the firm’s onshore private banking business in Mexico and advising UHNW clients from offices in New York and Miami. Prior to that, he held senior leadership roles at Santander Private Bank, where he led international wealth management teams, drove market expansion initiatives, and integrated global private banking platforms across the United States, Latin America, and Asia.

Janus Henderson Receives a Purchase Offer From Trian and General Catalyst

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Photo courtesyAli Dibadj, CEO of Janus Henderson

New Potential Acquisition Deal on the Horizon for the Asset Management Industry. Janus Henderson has confirmed it has received an acquisition proposal from Trian Fund Management, its current majority partner, and General Catalyst Group Management, along with its affiliated funds (General Catalyst).

“The company’s board of directors intends to appoint a special committee to consider this proposal, which was received by letter on October 26 and contemplates the acquisition of all outstanding common shares of Janus Henderson not already owned or controlled by Trian, for $46.00 per share in cash,” Janus Henderson explained in its statement. This would value Janus Henderson’s business at approximately $7.1 billion.

The asset manager acknowledges that Trian first disclosed its investment in Janus Henderson in October 2020 and, as stated in its letter, “publicly submitted the proposal in accordance with its disclosure obligations, as an amendment to its Schedule 13D filings.” Currently, Trian has two representatives on Janus Henderson’s board of directors. “The company values the history of constructive collaboration it has maintained with Trian over the past few years. The special committee is expected to be composed of directors unaffiliated with either Trian or General Catalyst,” Janus Henderson clarified.

The asset manager made it clear that “there can be no assurance that the proposal will result in a definitive agreement or that a transaction with Trian, General Catalyst, or any other third party will be completed.” To conclude the matter, Janus Henderson stated in its release that it does not intend to make further comments unless it deems additional disclosures appropriate.

A Less Restrictive Fed: Ahead of a New Rate Cut and the End of QT

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Photo courtesy

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) faces its monetary policy meeting with the latest headline CPI data for September still resonating, highlighting a further slowdown in underlying price pressures. The index rose 0.3% month-on-month—compared to the previous 0.4%—while core inflation slowed to 0.2%—down from the previous 0.3%.

The report revealed that core CPI inflation increased by 0.2% in September, aligning with the Fed’s 2% inflation target. “Specifically, while tariffs pushed up goods prices, core services and housing prices continue to moderate. Owners’ equivalent rent—the most significant and sticky component of core CPI inflation—recorded its lowest monthly reading since January 2021. The moderation in core inflation, along with continued labor market weakness, supports the possibility of another rate cut by the Fed at this week’s FOMC meeting,” explains Payden & Rygel.

Looking ahead to 2026, in their view, as tariff-related price pressures fade over the next 12 months and service inflation continues to cool, we can anticipate a scenario in which core CPI inflation reaches the Fed’s 2% target by late summer 2026. And, as the Fed governor noted in his latest speech, inflation on track toward 2% will not pose “an obstacle to a more neutral monetary policy.”

“The Fed officials will not be going into the October FOMC meeting completely blind, though they will be navigating through an uncomfortable haze. Since the federal government shutdown began earlier this month, there has been a scarcity of U.S. macroeconomic data releases, particularly regarding the labor market, and we don’t yet know when this data drought will end. At least, the Fed received the September CPI data on Friday, for which a slight uptick is expected,” notes the latest report by Ebury, the global fintech specialized in international payments and currency exchange.

According to the experts, the Fed could rely on this data to restart the cycle of rate cuts. If this happens, it would be the second consecutive cut and would confirm that the Fed is now more concerned about the labor market slowdown than about potential inflation spikes.

A New Cut

Experts agree that the communication received from the Fed ahead of the October FOMC meeting suggests that the lack of available data will not prevent central banks from cutting rates by another 25 basis points. “Which seems odd, considering we are flying blind due to the absence of new official data caused by the government shutdown. However, it is reasonable to assume that labor market conditions have not changed significantly since last month,” says Christian Scherrmann, chief U.S. economist at DWS.

He adds that renewed concerns about the health of the financial system, stemming from weaknesses in certain credit sectors, could provide final support for a 25 basis point rate cut and the end of quantitative tightening. “So far, so good, and markets appear well-positioned in terms of expectations for the upcoming meeting. However, beyond the October meeting, it would be unwise to become complacent. While another cut in December is consistent with the current dot plot, the median of Fed members only marginally supports this outcome. Not everyone favors rapid cuts, and some have voiced concerns about potential inflationary pressures,” Scherrmann argues.

“Historically, precautionary cuts have rarely been one-off measures. A new round of easing would not only mirror last year’s sequence of three consecutive cuts—totaling 100 bps between September and December—but also align with previous ‘insurance cycles.’ In three out of four cases since 1980, the Fed cut rates again within 90 days of the first reduction. Given the limited visibility in the current economic, political, and trade environment, as well as the ‘curious balance’ observed in the labor market—where both labor supply and demand have significantly moderated over the year—monetary policy decisions remain highly data-dependent. Although it would take considerable positive surprises in growth and inflation to avoid a new cut, upcoming price and employment data (with the September jobs report still unpublished due to the shutdown) could decisively influence the FOMC’s decision,” says Michael Krautzberger, global CIO for fixed income at Allianz Global Investors.

In the opinion of Guy Stear, head of developed market strategy at the Amundi Investment Institute, the Fed is expected to cut rates not only in October but also in December and two more times in the second quarter of 2026. “The market expects this as well, and the more interesting question is whether the Fed’s press conference will support the very aggressive cuts already priced into the curve through early 2027. Equally important will be understanding how the Fed plans to address shrinking liquidity at the short end, given the large volume of Treasury issuance in recent months. We could see a slight increase in two-year yields in the U.S. if the Fed disappoints the market’s aggressive expectations for rate cuts, but yields could also be supported if the Fed starts increasing system liquidity,” Stear explains.

What We Know

Experts have been trying to find clues about the Fed’s upcoming narrative from Chair Powell’s speech on monetary policy outlook at the National Association for Business Economics last Tuesday in Philadelphia. Specifically, Powell confirmed to markets that the October rate cut, which the Fed had already hinted at in its previous meeting, remains on the table. In the same speech, he expressed concern over lower hiring levels, which could pose a real risk to the U.S. economy. He also explicitly stated that, based on the available data, the labor market outlook had not changed since the September meeting, when the Fed’s dot plot outlined two additional cuts for 2025.

“Powell focused on the Fed’s balance sheet and stated that the reduction could be concluded in the coming months. The speech did not introduce any new elements, and the Fed appears on track to reduce rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming meeting on October 28 and 29. The odds of easing at each of the next two meetings have risen above 100%, so the momentum for a 50-basis-point easing cycle is starting, though it remains unlikely in our view,” says Karen Manna, fixed income client portfolio manager at Federated Hermes.

This month’s meeting will not include updated macroeconomic projections or a new dot plot. Therefore, in Ebury’s opinion, markets will scrutinize the tone of the bank’s statement and Powell’s press conference. “Given the absence of new economic releases, we believe the bank’s statement will be practically the same as in September. The Fed will likely once again highlight downside risks to employment, possibly noting that they have increased, and that the federal shutdown has made the decision-making process more difficult. However, the upside risks to inflation remain a headache for the Fed and should warrant a cautious response, despite the belief that the inflationary impact of tariffs will be transitory,” the fintech argues in its report.

More Accommodative Liquidity Conditions?
Cristina Gavín Moreno, head of fixed income at Ibercaja Gestión, agrees with this view and adds what she sees as the most relevant aspect of the meeting: “The end of the quantitative tightening (QT) process and the optimal size of the Fed’s balance sheet are additional points of discussion that are on the table, and this meeting could shed more light on them.”

Florian Späete, senior bond strategist at Generali AM, part of Generali Investments, notes that although the language is vague, Powell’s remarks suggest that quantitative tightening (QT) could end as early as this year. “This measure had previously been expected in the first quarter of 2026. It would represent a shift toward more accommodative liquidity conditions, easing pressure on funding markets. Improved liquidity and downward pressure on the term premium would offset the increasingly pronounced steepening trend in yield curves. However, overall, we assume that global yield curves still have room to steepen, given the higher inflation environment and rising public debt levels,” he states.

According to his analysis, since QT was already expected to end in early 2026, the impact on risk assets and the U.S. dollar is likely to be limited. “The easing of financial conditions, further interest rate cuts by the Fed, and relatively modest investor positioning are also favorable factors. The depreciation of the U.S. dollar, which we had already anticipated, should also be supported by the end of QT. The possible end of QT by the Fed is consistent with the idea of a less restrictive monetary policy in the United States,” he concludes.

Danilo Narbona, New Market Head for Central America and the Andean Region at Insigneo

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Insigneo Financial Group announced the appointment of Danilo Narbona as market head for the Andean region and Central America. He will report to Michael Averett, chief revenue officer of the U.S.-based wealth management firm.

Narbona will play a key role in strengthening the company’s presence and consolidating its positioning in the markets of Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Venezuela, and Central America, according to a statement from Insigneo.

“We are very pleased to welcome Danilo to this important role,” said Michael Averett. “He has a broad track record of driving growth in the financial industry. We are confident that Insigneo will continue to strengthen its position in these markets under his leadership.”

Narbona brings over 30 years of experience in the financial sector, where he has led multinational commercial organizations, empowering investment professionals to deliver a superior experience to their clients, the firm added.

Previously, the professional served as executive director at VectorGlobal Wealth Management Group, where he led the company’s international wealth management business across Latin America for more than a decade. Prior to that, he spent eight years at Citi, where he held the position of senior vice president and was responsible for the affluent & high net worth segment. Early in his career, he led the affluent clients division at Banco de Chile.

“Joining Insigneo represents a great opportunity,” said Danilo Narbona. “We aspire to be the leading wealth management firm in the Andean region and Central America, and I am convinced that the combination of my experience in these markets and Insigneo’s strong capabilities will allow us to achieve that goal,” added the business engineer from the University of Santiago, Chile.

“Many of the Fundamentals of American Exceptionalism Remain Intact”

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John Lamb, Equity Investment Director at Capital Group, analyzed the effects of Trump’s policies, the role of Europe, and highlighted attractive opportunities in the healthcare sector. He affirmed that there is a shift in the global balance, anticipated “some additional weakness” in the U.S. economy, and noted that the “inflationary rebound resulting from tariffs” has yet to materialize. However, the United States remains “resilient” thanks to strong investment in technology and data centers, and its exceptionalism continues to hold beyond the short term.

He also commented that by 2026, the ECB may need to consider raising rates “two or three times,” and that the euro could reach 1.30 against the dollar next year in a context of U.S. dollar weakness. Regarding emerging markets, he noted that China faces the challenge of structurally lower growth, while Indian companies appear overvalued.

This was shared during an in-person meeting with Funds Society, during a stop on the roadshow the specialist conducted in Miami to present Capital Group’s New Perspective Strategy, the global equity strategy the firm has been managing for over 50 years, investing flexibly in quality multinational companies driving global change.

Trump’s Impact and U.S. Economic Resilience

While acknowledging certain challenges stemming from the Trump administration’s policies, Lamb stated that the so-called “American exceptionalism” has not come to an end. “We take a balanced stance. We’re not fully on one side or the other. There are arguments both for and against,” he said.

Lamb expanded on Trump’s tariff policies, which in his view have created short-term difficulties for the U.S. economy. Still, he emphasized the resilience of U.S. companies and the economy as a whole, which have adapted to the trade tension environment.

According to Lamb, the full impact of the tariffs has yet to show up in the data. “We believe we haven’t yet seen the entire effect on the U.S. economy. Our short-term growth and inflation forecasts are less optimistic than the consensus,” he stated.

In that regard, he anticipated “some additional weakness” and warned that the inflation rebound linked to tariffs “has not yet materialized.” However, beyond the short term, Lamb argued that many of the fundamentals of American exceptionalism remain in place, driven by a combination of factors: “deep and liquid capital markets, a strong entrepreneurial spirit, and the rule of law… Many of those components remain intact,” he stated.

He also noted that growth has been supported by robust investment in tech infrastructure, particularly in data centers. While there may be risks of overenthusiasm in that segment, Lamb does not foresee a recession.

Diverging Monetary Policy

In this global context, Lamb said that Europe has performed better than expected. He considers it reasonable for the market to be pricing in three to four rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, but expects the European Central Bank to face the opposite challenge.

“The shift in Europe’s fiscal regime, with strong public spending—especially in Germany—could boost growth while also generating inflationary pressures,” he explained. In his view, the eurozone could potentially see two to three rate hikes.

Lamb also projected that the euro could reach 1.30 against the dollar next year amid U.S. dollar weakness. However, he added that “in the long term, the U.S. will likely benefit from a productivity boost driven by investment in artificial intelligence.”

Healthcare: Targeted Opportunities

Speaking about equities, Lamb pointed to the healthcare sector, where he sees attractive opportunities.

“It’s been a challenging time for the sector,” he admitted, citing negative factors tied to U.S. government policies on drug pricing and reimbursement, as well as tariffs. “But valuations are now near historic lows in relative terms.”

The expert believes political risks have diminished and that the sector combines “attractive valuations with an exciting innovation pipeline.” He cited specific examples such as Eli Lilly, which is about to present clinical trial results for a new oral version of its weight-loss drugs—a development that could “significantly open up the market and expand its reach.”

Capital Group’s New Perspective Strategy does not make “large macro bets by region,” he explained. “We focus on finding the right companies, regardless of where they are domiciled,” he concluded.

Which Distribution Channel Wins and Loses in the Alternatives Boom?

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The Alts Leaders Survey 2025, conducted by Alternative Investments Market Intelligence, breaks down how the growth and adoption of alternative investments in private markets is taking place across different distribution channels. Overall, the study’s findings point to a market still in the early stages of integration. While adoption of these types of investments is expanding, the report’s data highlights significant segmentation by channel, making average figures less meaningful without added context.

The study gathers insights from senior executives in the distribution sector representing more than 65.9% of all private investment flows into alternative assets. The results show that although private alternatives are gaining traction, investment penetration remains uneven across the various distribution channels.

Key findings include:

1. Wirehouses Lead:
23% of clients invest in private market alternative assets, with an average portfolio allocation of 16%. This accounts for 3.75% of total client assets—nearly three times the share held by independent broker-dealers and five times that of the RIA community overall. Their institutional infrastructure, the expertise of their CIOs and analysts, along with the support of both technological and human capital infrastructure, are decisive advantages driving private investment adoption among clients.

2. Independent Broker-Dealers Lag Behind but Make Meaningful Allocations:
Adoption stands at 9%; however, participating clients have a 13% exposure, equating to over 1% of total assets. Structural barriers, lower client wealth, and suitability restrictions limit broader growth, the study notes. Some respondents indicated that historical underperformance of legacy real estate funds has dampened enthusiasm in this channel.

3. RIAs Tell Two Stories:
Committed RIAs show private market alternative adoption above 29%, with client allocations averaging 11%, representing 3.35% of implied client assets. However, Broad RIAs reflect only 0.78% in implied assets, signaling that many firms in this segment have yet to engage in alternative investments. Barriers include indexing preferences, operational limitations, and fee sensitivity.

4. Early-Stage Market Dynamics:
Interviews confirm that firms with dedicated resources expand adoption more effectively, while others remain cautious due to illiquidity, operational sensitivities, and fees.

Based on these figures, the study highlights several observations and implications:

  1. Wirehouses are leaders in alternatives across distribution channels for multiple reasons: the combination of adoption and allocation generates the greatest impact on client portfolios, supported by CIOs’ analytical activity and advisor reinforcement.

  2. Independent Broker-Dealers remain constrained by suitability: structural barriers persist, limiting both access and the scope of product approval.

  3. RIAs include a subset of firms deeply committed to private market alternative investments, but the majority remain uninvolved, which weighs down capital-weighted averages, according to the study.

The report also notes that the wide dispersion across each channel in terms of private market alternative investment reflects a market still in its early stages: the large variation among firms reveals disparities in infrastructure and operational readiness.

The growing availability of evergreen funds with lower minimum investment thresholds and permanent access is expected to gradually increase penetration rates of alternative investments among clients.

During interviews, many respondents expressed a desire to “catch up” with firms that offer strong and sophisticated solutions for their clients.

China’s Advantage in Trump’s Tariff Game

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Since last Friday, Malaysia’s capital (Kuala Lumpur) has been the setting for the fifth round of trade negotiations between China and the U.S., following a staged escalation in tensions last week. According to experts, these meetings have aimed to ease the atmosphere ahead of the face-to-face meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, which will take place in three days.

At DWS, they emphasize that the Asian giant is better prepared to face the trade and tariff challenges posed by the U.S. Firstly, as explained in the latest report by its CIO, the situation is not new. “China was already a key focus of U.S. foreign policy under President Biden. Moreover, although China remains one of the main targets of the United States’ tariff policy, its impact was diluted in April, when Washington imposed punitive tariffs on multiple countries worldwide. China also responded quickly to Trump’s return, adopting economic policy measures aimed at stability. And finally, the share of Chinese exports destined for the U.S. has halved over the past eight years, now standing at around 10%. Ultimately, China’s economy today is much less dependent on international trade than is commonly assumed: in 2024, exports accounted for less than 20% of GDP, compared to 36% in the case of the European Union,” they point out.

Just last week, China announced its new five-year plan, which largely signals a continuation of recent policy priorities—under the umbrella of “high-quality development”—placing increased emphasis on accelerating technological self-sufficiency and scientific capabilities. In the opinion of Robert Gilhooly, senior economist specializing in emerging markets at Aberdeen Investments, this will be seen as a continuation of the effort to improve and expand domestic manufacturing capabilities, as outlined in the ‘Made in China 2025’ plan, though it is unlikely the name will be renewed, as it has irritated key trade partners.

“Recently, policy has attempted to boost consumption, but geopolitical pressure is likely to keep priorities tilted toward the supply side of the economy, which will make it harder to eliminate deflationary pressures—even if authorities focus on sectors with well-known overcapacity issues, such as automobile manufacturing, solar energy, and batteries,” Gilhooly notes.

The Secret of Tariffs


In addition to China’s stronger position at the negotiating table, Philippe Waechter, chief economist at Ostrum AM (a firm affiliated with Natixis IM), argues that, at its core, the U.S. tech sector cannot fully decouple from the Asian country. “Trump’s response, with tariffs on China 100% higher than those already in place, is a reaction born of helplessness, as the United States cannot do without many Chinese products. Chinese advances are harming the U.S. tech and defense industries. What’s new is the shortage this could cause on the other side of the Atlantic. It is no longer a matter of prices, but of a break in the value chain. It’s not comparable, and the consequences for U.S. industry could be far greater than the mere application of customs duties,” Waechter states.

As the Ostrum AM expert recalls, “The U.S. economy is strong, but artificial intelligence plays a major role: it explains 92% of growth in the first half of the year. Without it, GDP would have grown just 0.1%. The U.S. economy is likely not as robust as it appears.”

For Sandy Pei, senior portfolio manager at Federated Hermes, despite the renewed escalation of the trade war, the risks facing China’s economy are well understood and already priced in. “We expect supportive policies to stimulate the economy, particularly for high-tech industries, especially in areas where China currently lags behind global leaders. However, financial support is likely to taper off quickly, as the government prefers a market-driven approach: only the most competitive companies will come out ahead,” she argues.

Chinese Equities


For now, no other country is subject to as intense a burden of tariffs and sanctions from the United States as China. However, the Asian giant also appears to be the best-prepared country for a second Trump term, and DWS believes Chinese equity markets may be benefiting from this. “Sometimes, equity markets can be ironic. Chinese stocks began to rebound roughly at the time Trump returned to the presidency in January 2025,” notes the latest report from its CIO.

The document points out that the factors driving the Chinese stock market are primarily internal rather than external. And, prior to the rebound seen this year, they were far from favorable. “Since 2021, the Chinese market has lagged behind the U.S. and Europe. The problems are well known and, in part, remain unresolved: an oversaturated real estate market, an aging population, high levels of local government debt, power concentrated in the party, weak consumer confidence and high savings rates, inconsistent data quality, and overcapacity in numerous sectors. The government’s ‘anti-involution’ strategy aims to address some of these issues,” it notes.

From the asset manager’s perspective, after adjusting its economic policy, the MSCI China index has gained nearly 40% so far this year, and they consider valuations to have returned to the average of the past fifteen years. “The deterioration of confidence in other regions is boosting China’s position, where the likelihood of a gradual recovery is increasing. Even if a broad-based recovery does not occur, opportunities in the technology sectors could continue to offer solid upside potential, despite the recent valuation reassessment,” says Sebastian Kahlfeld, head of emerging markets equities at DWS.

Miami: Angelita Fuentes Joins Voya as Associate Regional Director

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Angelita Fuentes joins Voya Investment Management in Miami as associate regional director – US offshore, according to a post on her LinkedIn profile.

“I am pleased to announce that I am starting a new position as associate regional director – US offshore sales at Voya Investment Management,” she said in the post.

According to what the professional shared on LinkedIn, she will join the team led by Alberto D’Avenia, managing director – head of US offshore; along with Vince León, senior VP & senior regional director – US offshore; Samantha Muratori, US offshore wholesaler – NY & TX; and Joseph Arrieta, assistant vice president – US offshore.

Angelita Fuentes comes from SMVNF Investments, where she held the position of finance manager, after working at IPG Investment Advisors as VP wealth management. Previously, she built her career at SunTrust, holding various roles.

Academically, she is a graduate of Florida International University, where she earned a degree in international relations and affairs and also completed a master’s in finance at the same institution. She holds FINRA Series 7 and Series 66 licenses, among other academic certifications.