Massive Sell-Offs and Corrections Reach Fixed Income: How Do Tariffs Affect Bonds?

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The trade war continues its course with the entry into force of Trump’s 20% tariffs on the EU and 125% on China, with red coloring the Asian and European stock markets. No one escapes the sharp declines driven by the imposition of tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding the reaction of the affected countries and their negotiating capacity. Fixed income assets are also suffering the impact of tariffs and the overall context of volatility.

“Currently, markets are fearful and operating accordingly. Even after the impact of the tariff announcement last week, we have seen very diverse headlines and even a temporary risk rally triggered by a televised interview with some unfortunate statements. Progress in trade agreements with Japan and South Korea seems promising, but negotiations with China and the European Union will be more decisive for both market volatility and global economic growth,” says Aaron Rock, Head of Nominal Rates at Aberdeen Investments.

According to Marco Giordano, Chief Investment Officer at Wellington Management, fixed income markets rose amid a widespread risk-off movement. “Yields fell in major economies, led by Australia, along with Japan, New Zealand, and China. European yields followed the same path, with markets pricing in a 90% probability that the ECB will cut interest rates at its next meeting on April 17. U.S. Treasury yields fell across the curve, with the front end leading the move. In credit markets, the Credit Default Swap Index (CDX) for U.S. high yield bonds widened by 20 basis points following the announcement, 10 points more than its euro counterpart, indicating greater risk aversion in U.S. markets,” notes Giordano.

In fact, the yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose to 4.47% before stabilizing at 4.33%, indicating a massive sell-off in the bond market. “Bond markets have shown notable fluctuations over the last two trading sessions. Government bond yields are experiencing new volatility, and credit spreads are finally showing a real impact from macroeconomic and stock market pressures,” explains Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Analysis at Julius Baer.

According to Rock, yield curves may continue to steepen. “Concerns about growth and pressure for central banks to intervene will continue to support short-term bonds. The behavior of the long end is more uncertain: yields could continue to rise due to inflation expectations, forced liquidations, and fears about debt sustainability; however, recession fears could exert downward pressure. Moreover, the weak 3-year bond auction in the U.S. recorded last night has intensified doubts about the safe-haven status of U.S. Treasuries, exacerbated by the loss of credibility in the country’s economic policy. We anticipate continued pressure on U.S. Treasuries,” adds the Head of Nominal Rates at Aberdeen Investments.

The Impact of Tariffs on U.S. and EU Bonds

According to Mauro Valle, Head of Fixed Income at Generali Asset Management (part of Generali Investments), over the last week, U.S. yields moved 30 basis points lower, reaching 3.9%, after Trump announced the global tariff plan and then retraced 20 basis points after the news of a 90-day suspension period.

“Real yields dropped to a low of 1.6% before returning to 2.0%; breakeven rates fell from 2.4% to 2.15%. Trump’s tariff plan impacted risk assets, and now the market is trying to assess the recession risk in the U.S. Market fears of a global recession are high and well-founded, as global trade is likely to decline significantly,” says Valle.

In his opinion, another risk factor to watch is the EU’s retaliation plan in response to U.S. tariffs: whether the EU will take a soft approach or not. “The market expects more Fed cuts, with up to 4 cuts by December, as the Fed will support the economy and employment despite the risk of inflation. But in his last speech, Powell confirmed his focus on the U.S. inflation profile. The ISM data confirmed the U.S. economy’s slowdown, and the labor report showed an improvement in non-farm payrolls but also a 4.2% unemployment rate. U.S. yields could continue to move within a range around the 4.0% level, given the high level of uncertainty and the growing term premium investors will demand for long-term U.S. yields. Considering possible Fed support, if the scenario deteriorates, the U.S. curve steepening could continue,” explains this expert.

In contrast, focusing on the European Union, Valle highlights that bund yields fell to the 2.5% level following the news of the tariffs — the level observed before the announcement of the German fiscal bazooka — and then rebounded to 2.6%. “The Eurozone scenario seems somewhat easier to interpret. Tariffs may have a moderately negative impact on EU growth but will be offset by German fiscal spending towards the end of 2025 and in 2026. Eurozone inflation is expected to continue declining in the coming months. The ECB could cut rates in upcoming meetings, bringing official rates below 2% if necessary, as the economy will be negatively affected by tariffs while inflation will likely be less sensitive to them. The market is close to fully pricing in a cut in April, and three cuts are expected before December,” comments the Head of Fixed Income at Generali AM.

Emerging Corporate Bonds and Tariffs: Beyond the Noise

We must not forget that trade policy and geopolitics have significant direct and indirect repercussions on emerging market companies. Countries like Mexico face direct consequences, though broader effects such as slowing growth, weakening risk sentiment, and emerging market currency turbulence are also evident.

For Siddharth Dahiya, Head of Emerging Market Corporate Debt, and Leo Morawiecki, Associate Investment Specialist in Fixed Income at Aberdeen Investment, credit markets have remained remarkably stable despite the rapid deterioration in risk sentiment over recent weeks. “Although emerging market credit has shown some weakness, spreads have only widened by one basis point so far in March, with a total return of -0.56%. The reaction of emerging market credit has been even milder: total returns of -0.22%, reflecting its resilience in a volatile geopolitical world,” they explain.

In this regard, they point out that local currency assets have held up against expectations of a potentially weaker U.S. dollar amid a faster and deeper rate-cutting cycle. “So far this year, the spot dollar index has weakened by 4.4%, while the Brazilian real, the Mexican peso, and the Polish zloty have posted total returns of over 3%. This should give emerging market central banks room to continue cutting official interest rates,” they note.

According to the analysis of Dahiya and Morawiecki, the greatest impact has occurred in spreads of oil and gas companies. However, they explain that this has been more due to the persistent weakness in oil prices and the intentions of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to soon ease production cuts. “Although the repercussions have been limited, the tightening of financial conditions in the U.S. could lead to a rise in yield spreads globally. We are reassured by the strong initial balance sheets of emerging markets and the absence of major fiscal problems in some of the largest countries,” they conclude.

“We’ve tripled assets in the US Offshore business and are exploring other markets in Latin America”

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Photo courtesyHeinz Volquarts, Head of Americas International of State Street Global Advisors

In just 16 months, State Street Global Advisors’ US Offshore business has tripled its assets, and the firm is now exploring the Brazilian market. In the longer term, the company is also eyeing other Latin American markets, said Heinz Volquarts, Managing Director and Head of Americas International (Canada, LatAm & Offshore) at State Street Global Advisors, in an exclusive interview with Funds Society.

Volquarts, who is based in New York, also highlighted the growing interest in industrial and defensive sectors due to market volatility and uncertainty, and noted the current flow into European equities.

He also said that the ETF-focused asset manager has no plans to expand its distribution agreements in Latin America, although it believes in strategic partnerships like those it already maintains with Blackstone, Apollo, Nuveen, DoubleLine, and Bridgewater for actively managed ETFs. He predicted the ETF industry is well positioned for continued growth, pointing to the low cost of ETFs as a key differentiator in the sector.

Market Decline and Rotation

Tariff-related uncertainty has triggered volatility in global equities and a rotation into other asset classes and markets. In the interview, Volquarts explained that although State Street offers a broad range of equity products, the firm has also grown its fixed income offerings in recent years.

“In recent weeks, we’ve seen increased demand from clients for investment ideas and sector positioning. Clients are looking to position themselves in more defensive sectors—those less damaged or impacted by tariffs. Ultimately, this has created an opportunity to be more defensive,” he said.

Volquarts also pointed out another clear shift: rising demand for ex-U.S. products. “Europe is the area where we’ve seen the most interest, with flows into European equity products. Latin American clients are also beginning to look at European and industrial sectors,” he added.

State Street’s Numbers in Latin America

Regarding regional ETF demand, most comes from institutional clients, mainly Afores and AFPs, which account for 75% of the demand, explained Volquarts, who graduated from Mexico’s Instituto Politécnico Nacional (IPN) and holds postgraduate degrees from Universidad Anáhuac.

In Mexico, the business with Afores continues to grow at an annual rate of 10% to 15%, while in Colombia it’s growing at 10%, with State Street gaining market share. In Chile and Peru, growth has been organic, primarily through AFPs.

However, Volquarts emphasized that in Peru, the Wealth Management business has been the main growth driver, fueled by demand from family offices. “Peru has been a positive surprise for us in the wealth segment. While AFPs have seen some withdrawals in recent years, private banking has grown significantly,” he said.

The State Street executive described “a train that other countries are now boarding” as they begin to open offshore accounts. He specifically referenced Brazil: “We’re seeing money coming into Miami from Brazil, which is a relatively new trend.”

The firm already has assets in Brazil, where State Street Global Markets has a strong presence. However, the company plans to proactively cover the Brazilian market. “Institutional demand locally in Brazil isn’t very strong yet, but we’re exploring it,” he told Funds Society.

In Mexico, “RIAs have grown significantly, with positions in both domestic and offshore accounts. Most of the flows have moved to the U.S. offshore market,” he explained.

“We currently have proactive Offshore Wealth coverage, led by Diana Donk in the US Offshore Market, and Argentina and Uruguay are on our radar for the coming years,” he added.

Leaders in Low-Cost Products

In the interview, Heinz Volquarts emphasized: “We want to be competitive and offer our clients access to our portfolios at competitive prices. We are one of the market leaders in low-cost products, but we offer many other options; we’re competitive in sectors and also have active products.”

State Street Global Advisors has reached agreements with other asset managers for specialized strategies, such as the SPDR Blackstone Senior Loan ETF, which has more than $6 billion in AUM and has been running since 2013, and the recently launched SPDR Bridgewater All Weather ETF—“a multi-asset strategy that’s perfect for a volatile environment like the current one,” noted Volquarts. These are actively managed ETFs, currently available only in 40Act format.

Speaking specifically about the US Offshore business, he said that the firm has been actively working in this area for the past 16 months and has tripled its assets during that time. He also said that State Street continues to work with major wirehouses (UBS, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, among others), with the private banking segment using UCITS strategies, which have been well received by RIAs.

Volquarts also identified three clear market trends: currency-hedged strategies, low-cost products, and model portfolios using ETFs. In terms of distribution, LatAm is covered through Credicorp (Andean region), and in Mexico they have a sales director, Ian López.

The executive sees no signs of slowdown in the ETF industry, which has been growing rapidly in recent years. “The sector is expected to continue growing at a fast pace,” he said, citing a compelling figure: “There’s still a lot of money in mutual funds. In Canada, out of the $3 trillion invested in mutual funds, only 18% is in ETFs.”

Santander PBI Adds André Schelbauer as Senior Banker in Miami

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LinkedIn

Santander Private Banking International continues to strengthen its Miami office, having hired André Schelbauer as Executive Director and Senior Banker, according to a LinkedIn post published by the Spanish-origin private banking division.

“We are pleased to announce that André Schelbauer has joined our Miami team as a Senior Banker. On behalf of the entire Santander Private Banking International team, we warmly welcome him,” the bank stated in its post.

“I’m pleased to share that I’m taking on a new role as Executive Director at Santander Private Banking International,” the private banker wrote on his personal LinkedIn profile.

Since 2022, Schelbauer had been working at JP Morgan Private Bank, also in Miami, where he was promoted to Executive Director last year. Previously, he worked in New York at Delta National Bank and Trust Company as Vice President of Business Development. In his native Brazil, he held a Senior Relationship Manager position at Banco Alfa and gained earlier experience in trading at Banco ABC Brasil and HSBC, according to his LinkedIn profile.

Schelbauer holds a degree in Business Administration from FAE Business School in Curitiba. He also holds the CPA-20 certification from ANBIMA, the CFP designation awarded by Planejar – the Brazilian Financial Planning Association, and FINRA Series 7 & 66 licenses.

The US Dollar Loses Its Smile as Latin American Currencies Shine

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According to experts, the recent weakening of the US dollar has real consequences for investment portfolios. As investors consider whether or not to make changes in terms of currency exposure, the debate over the dollar’s behavior remains open and vibrant.

In fact, the greenback posted a slight recovery yesterday after President Trump clarified he had no intention of removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, easing concerns over the central bank’s independence. Additionally, a more conciliatory tone toward China helped revive risk sentiment, boosting demand for US assets and reducing appetite for emerging market currencies.

Lale Akoner, Global Markets Analyst at eToro, notes that in the current context, investors seeking better currency balance might want to diversify their FX exposure. “Holding wealth in a single currency concentrates risk. Some investors are allocating to euro-, yen-, or Swiss franc-denominated assets. Others are using international funds with currency-hedged share classes to broaden their safety net and neutralize FX risk. Alignment is key: US investors anticipating continued dollar weakness tend to avoid hedging to capture foreign gains, while European or UK investors with US assets may prefer hedging to mitigate FX losses,” says Akoner.

She highlights that during Q1 2025, the depreciation of the US dollar had a significant impact on Latin American currencies, driving widespread appreciation across the region. According to analysts, this trend is tied to factors such as uncertainty surrounding US trade policy under Donald Trump’s administration and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. So what’s happening with these currencies?

The Strength of the Mexican Peso

In this context, the performance of certain Latin American currencies stands out. For instance, earlier this week, the Mexican peso gained ground against the dollar, reaching multi-month highs, as investors responded to the greenback’s weakness.

“The Mexican peso has maintained a positive trend against the US dollar, trading below the 19.50 pesos per dollar zone. This appreciation has been driven by both external and internal factors, which have strengthened investor confidence in the national currency. In an uncertain global environment, the peso’s stability stands out as a sign of economic resilience and relative strength,” explains Antonio Di Giacomo, Financial Markets Analyst for LATAM at XS.

He adds that from a technical standpoint, the USD/MXN exchange rate is at a critical level. “The 19.50 mark acts as a key support, and a potential downward break is being closely watched, which could open the door for further peso appreciation. This technical outlook has become an additional factor fueling short-term positive expectations,” he notes.

However, according to Quasar Elizundia, Market Analysis Strategist at Pepperstone, the Latin currency could face headwinds. “In the US, easing fears of political interference in the Fed and renewed hopes of a trade truce between the US and China could boost the greenback.”

Elizundia points out that domestically, while Banxico’s relatively high benchmark interest rate and favorable interest rate differential continued to attract inflows, mixed data may cloud the peso’s trajectory. “Retail sales fell 1.1% year-over-year in February, a sharp reversal from the 2.7% increase in January. Although monthly growth remained marginally positive, the data confirmed a loss of household consumption momentum. This weakness coincided with the IMF’s downward revision of Mexico’s economic forecast, now expecting GDP to contract by 0.3% in 2025.”

Brazil, Chile, and Argentina: Advancing Against the Dollar

Looking at Brazil and Chile, the trend is similar. The Brazilian real appreciated by 1.01%, trading at 5.7055 per dollar, mainly strengthened by the global retreat of the dollar and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Central Bank of Brazil. Analysts add that a positive outlook for its trade balance also played a role, as rising export prices—especially commodities—have boosted foreign currency inflows. “However, the sustainability of this trend will depend on the country’s ability to address its fiscal challenges and control inflation, as well as on the global economic outlook,” they note.

Meanwhile, the Chilean peso rose 0.86%, trading at 918.80 per dollar, driven by higher copper prices—the country’s main export. As in Brazil, two other factors supported the currency: monetary policy and the dollar’s depreciation. In this regard, it’s notable that the Central Bank of Chile has maintained a restrictive monetary policy to control inflation, which has contributed to peso stability.

Finally, the appreciation of the Argentine peso reflects a different context. Following the liberalization of exchange controls, the peso showed an upward trend, trading around 1,088 pesos per dollar. According to experts, this appreciation was driven by the urgent need for local currency liquidity and by monetary policies implemented by President Javier Milei’s administration.

“The Argentine peso maintained its upward bias at the beginning of the week as the market adjusted following the recent exchange liberalization, showing an urgent need for local currency liquidity that encouraged the unwinding of dollarized positions. Traders agreed that the monetary policy implemented by ultraliberal President Javier Milei’s government is driving a sustained revaluation of the peso, approaching the central bank’s (BCRA) buying rate,” Reuters reported.

Colombian Peso: Going Against the Grain

On the flip side—quite literally—is the Colombian peso, which has weakened against the dollar and rising trade optimism. According to Elizundia from Pepperstone—a brokerage specializing in international financial and crypto markets—this midweek decline stemmed from both internal and external factors. “Locally, oil prices continued to fall amid signs that OPEC+ may further increase production. Falling oil prices directly harm Colombia’s terms of trade and fiscal outlook,” he explains.

Externally, he adds that the latest dollar rebound further weighed on the currency.

Finally, the analyst notes that looking ahead, all eyes are on next week’s interest rate decision. “After holding rates steady in the previous meeting, any rate cut could reduce the peso’s appeal and increase depreciation pressures,” Elizundia concludes.

The Dollar Loses Its Smile

According to Benoit Anne, Senior Managing Director of Strategy & Insights Group at MFS Investment Management, we are facing a new market paradigm in which the defensive characteristics of the US dollar are weakening. He notes that the DXY index has dropped to around 98.40—a level not seen since early 2022.

“The US dollar is much cheaper than it was a few months ago, but that doesn’t mean it’s historically cheap. If we look at the Fed’s broad real trade-weighted dollar index, the current level remains 17% above its 30-year average, indicating significant overvaluation. Overall, the current market environment does not seem favorable for the dollar, at least based on available information. This suggests that non-US assets could be well positioned to deliver better returns going forward,” Anne concludes.

OKX Expands to U.S. with New Exchange and Wallet

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OKX expansión EE.UU. exchange y wallet
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Global cryptocurrency exchange OKX has formally launched its U.S. operations, introducing a centralized trading platform and self-custody Web3 wallet as part of a broader expansion strategy. The company has also appointed Roshan Robert as CEO of its U.S. division and established a regional headquarters in San Jose, California.

The exchange is now available to existing OKcoin users, who are being transitioned to the OKX platform. New customers will be onboarded in phases ahead of a nationwide rollout later this year. The platform offers a high-performance trading engine, competitive fee structure, deep liquidity, and integrated support for U.S. dollar deposits and withdrawals.

In addition to its exchange, OKX has launched a Web3 wallet aimed at simplifying digital asset management. The wallet supports more than 130 blockchains and allows users to conduct token swaps, transfer assets across chains, explore NFTs, and access decentralized applications—all within a single mobile or browser-based interface.

“With Roshan leading our US operations and our new San Jose headquarters, we’re reinforcing OKX’s commitment to regulatory excellence, responsible innovation and talent recruitment,” said Hong Fang, Global President of OKX.

Roshan Robert, who brings extensive experience in capital markets and regulatory strategy, will lead the company’s U.S. operations. His role will focus on advancing regulatory engagement and ensuring the development of compliant digital asset solutions.

“I’m excited to lead OKX’s efforts in the US and bring our customers a flexible, high-performance crypto experience,” Robert said.

To reinforce its commitment to transparency, OKX continues to publish monthly proof-of-reserve reports, independently verified by blockchain security firm Hacken. These reports confirm that customer assets held on the platform are fully backed.

The expansion positions OKX as a new competitor in the U.S. crypto market, offering institutional-grade infrastructure while navigating a regulatory environment that remains under active development.

Billions in Tax Credit go Unclaimed

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créditos fiscales no reclamados EE.UU.
Foto cedida. Wells Fargo vende su negocio de gestión de activos a GTCR LLC y Reverence Capital Partners

Every year, millions of eligible Americans miss out on valuable tax credits like the Earned Income Tax Credit —leaving billions unclaimed and families without crucial financial support. In 2021 alone, 22% of eligible households failed to claim the EITC, resulting in an estimated $8.2 billion left on the table.

To help close this gap, Prosperity Now and the Wells Fargo Foundation have awarded $200,000 in grants to 15 community-based organizations through the 2025 VITA Support Fund. These nonprofits will provide free, IRS-certified Volunteer Income Tax Assistance services in 12 U.S. markets, helping thousands of taxpayers file their returns and claim refundable credits like the EITC and Child Tax Credit.

“When we support community-based tax preparation, we’re not only helping families strengthen their financial footing, but we’re also keeping dollars circulation in local economies,” said Marisa Calderon, President & CEO of Prosperity Now.

The cost of professional tax preparation, which averages around $400 for basic returns, can be a financial hurdle for families earning between $20,000 and $60,000 annually. VITA programs eliminate that barrier by offering no-cost, accurate filing in trusted local settings.

The 15 funded organizations, chosen for their cultural competency and deep community roots, are expected to prepare over 20,000 tax returns in 2025. Collectively, their efforts are projected to return an estimated $25 million in refunds and credits to eligible households. Beyond tax season, many of these groups provide financial coaching, access to safe banking options, and assistance with public benefits.

“Supporting VITA programs is an important way we can make a difference on people’s path to financial security,” said Bonnie Wallace, head of financial health philanthropy at Wells Fargo. 

The VITA Support Fund initiative underscores Prosperity Now and the Wells Fargo Foundation’s shared goal of expanding financial opportunity by investing in accessible, community-centered services.

 

Trump’s Tariffs Could End Up Being an Opportunity for the European ETF Industry

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aranceles Trump oportunidad ETFs europeos
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The total unpredictability and the unprecedented policy shifts of the Trump administration, along with Europe’s seismic response to these, have led to a drastic reversal in investor sentiment and positioning in recent times. Experts at Xtrackers by DWS have identified several significant changes in performance and asset allocation, including that investors are moving away from U.S. equities and the Magnificent Seven toward regions previously “forgotten” and with low exposure such as, for example, Europe and China.

“There is a clear reversal in the European narrative following the elections in Germany and the change in the U.S. approach to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. From our point of view, this makes the recent rally in Europe more than just a reversal effect. In times of high uncertainty, ETF flows seem to indicate that the market has finally heard the wake-up call for greater diversification beyond U.S. large caps,” they explain.

Chart: Relative performance versus the S&P 500 (last 12 months, total return in dollars)

U.S. equity ETFs are seeing a sharp drop in new inflows, as investors turn to European, global, and emerging market indices.

One of the main conclusions they draw is that the market inflection point could open opportunities to recalibrate portfolios, as these are experiencing a key reversal of the so-called “Trump Trade”, with a sharp drop in U.S. equities so far this year. In contrast, they point out that more attractive valuations of European equities, along with announcements of larger infrastructure and defense investments, have pushed markets upward in Europe. “This movement is supported by structural factors, such as the new uncertainties around AI and the capital expenditure (capex) investment story that comes with it, as well as the renewed fiscal momentum in Europe,” they clarify in their latest analysis.

At the same time, they believe that geopolitical tensions could make recalibrating risk exposure a priority: “For investors, this represents a window to reposition their portfolios, diversify beyond traditional winners and take advantage of evolving macroeconomic and thematic drivers. Several regions and sectors have been identified as structural laggards by investors (including Europe, China, and the world excluding the U.S.). With very low initial sentiment and a new geopolitical environment, these could become candidates for sustained recovery.”

The New Narrative: Europe’s “Whatever It Takes”

On one hand, the experts point out that a possible ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine is improving market sentiment, which contrasts with the urgency of EU members to substantially increase defense spending, with the goal of reducing their dependence on the U.S. “Germany has announced plans to make major investments in infrastructure and defense, financed through a relaxation of the debt brake and a special fund of 500 billion euros. This could increase indebtedness and the public debt ratio, but at the same time boost economic growth. Other EU countries are likely to follow this path,” they note as an example.

From the firm, they expect these measures to accelerate growth, especially starting next year. Xtrackers forecasts estimate that Germany will grow 0.4% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026. For the Eurozone as a whole, they project growth of 1% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026. Meanwhile, the ECB has further supported European markets with interest rate cuts, making equities more attractive compared to traditional savings products and, over time, easing the interest burden for companies.

Lastly, private consumption is beginning to recover thanks to a surprisingly strong labor market and declining inflation. Additionally, macroeconomic surprise indicators have turned positive for Europe. “We believe the euro could strengthen in the short and medium term. Moreover, European stocks, especially mid-caps, which have lagged in the recent rally, could benefit from the planned spending increase,” the analysts explained, adding that Europe’s macroeconomic momentum has become a tailwind for equities so far this year, while U.S. indicators have turned downward.

“Positive economic environment, positive risk appetite, positive structural factors (the historically forecasted higher EPS should drive superior profitability over the cycle, the adjusted valuation of Europe’s SME sector compared to large caps is below the historical average), greater domestic market exposure than large-cap companies,” conclude the experts at Xtrackers.

The U.S. ETF Industry Records Net Inflows of $298 Billion in Q1

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industria ETF EE.UU. entradas netas Q1
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The ETF industry continued to deliver record-breaking numbers: in the United States, the sector received net inflows of $298 billion during the first quarter, according to ETFGI’s March 2025 report on the state of the ETF and ETP industry. The report highlights that this figure is the highest ever recorded, and that March marked the 35th consecutive month of net inflows. Will the spell be broken going forward?

“The S&P 500 Index fell 5.63% in March and we are down 4.27% YTD in 2025. Developed markets excluding the U.S. index dropped 0.36% in March and rose 5.70% in 2025. Denmark (-11.58%) and the United States (-6.34%) posted the largest declines among developed markets in March,” said Deborah Fuhr, managing partner, founder, and owner of ETFGI.

“The emerging markets index rose 0.65% in March and 0.91% over the course of 2025. The Czech Republic (+14.00%) and Greece (+13.13%) posted the highest gains among emerging markets in March,” she added.

As of the end of March, the ETF sector in the United States comprised 4,140 products, with assets totaling $10.40 trillion, from 384 providers listed across 3 exchanges.

In March alone, ETFs recorded net inflows of $96.24 billion. Equity ETFs registered net inflows of $41.56 billion, bringing total Q1 inflows to $108.53 billion—surpassing the $106.41 billion in net inflows during Q1 2024.

Fixed income ETFs brought in $11.43 billion in net inflows in March, raising total Q1 net inflows to $56.66 billion, well above the $31.68 billion recorded in the same quarter of 2024.

Commodity ETFs saw net inflows of $6.61 billion in March, pushing Q1 inflows to $11.74 billion, a turnaround from net outflows of $4.93 billion in Q1 2024. Meanwhile, active ETFs attracted $32.28 billion in net inflows during the month, with Q1 net inflows reaching $120.78 billion—nearly double the $63.23 billion seen in the same period of 2024.

The top 20 ETFs by new net assets collectively brought in $72.98 billion in March. The iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV US) gathered $23.63 billion, the largest individual net inflow.

Finally, the top 10 ETPs by net assets collectively gathered $519.03 million in March. The MicroSectors FANG+ 3X Leveraged ETN (FNGB US) saw the largest individual net inflow, totaling $186.27 million.

During March, investors favored investments in equity ETFs/ETPs, the report states.

U.S.: SMA-to-ETF Conversions Are Growing

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conversiones SMA a ETF en EE.UU.
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The tax efficiency offered by ETFs has made them the preferred structure for advisors. Given the rising wealth of U.S. retail investors, advisors are expected to continue focusing more on tax-minimizing solutions, and the transfer of assets from separately managed accounts (SMA) to the ETF structure may be one of the components, according to the study The Cerulli Edge–The Americas Asset and Wealth Management Edition.

In 2017, 29% of practices focused on high-net-worth (HNW) clients—those serving households with $5 million or more in investable assets—offered guidance on tax planning. That proportion had increased to 45% in 2023.

In a 2024 Cerulli survey, HNW firm executives ranked tax minimization first, alongside wealth preservation, as the goals they perceived as most important for their clients: 73% rated them as very important.

Beyond tax efficiency, operational efficiency—including cost—is a critical component of SMA-to-ETF conversions. “The use of the ETF structure can enable more agile security purchases and avoids the need to distribute them across accounts, a challenge that grows along with the number of accounts, the complexity of the strategy, and the lowering of the minimums to access SMAs,” says Daniil Shapiro, director at the Boston-based international consultancy Cerulli.

“Even if these ETFs are intended solely for the firm’s clients, the ETF structure solves a major operational challenge. It has been suggested that ETFs can help an advisor generate hundreds of thousands in cost savings,” he adds.

The addressable market for SMAs and other advisor-managed securities to be converted into ETFs remains difficult to define at this early stage. The Cerulli study estimates that the total figure for the SMA sector stands at $2.7 trillion, of which more than half ($1.6 trillion) corresponds to wirehouses, and another $484 billion to the RIA channel.

However, according to the study, 45% of advisors report using separately managed accounts, compared to 90% who use the ETF structure.

The average SMA allocation for an advisor is 7.7%, although it declines rapidly for lower-market-base practices. Advisors with $500 million or more in practice assets report a considerable allocation of 12%, which they plan to increase to 15% by 2026.

“It is possible that, although initial discussions around conversion focus on the benefits for RIAs, there is a broader group in the wirehouse channel,” notes Shapiro.

Cerulli states that the main challenges for these conversions will be price and scale. With ETF launch costs and annual operating costs running into hundreds of thousands of dollars each, wealth management firms will need to contribute significant assets for each ETF conversion to make it attractive,” says the Cerulli director.

The consulting firm believes there is a significant opportunity for white-label providers and ETF issuers to offer support to RIAs and other clients in the wealth management segment interested in launching their own ETF product or converting.

Direct Indexing Strategies Have Surged in Recent Years, but They Are Still Not Popular Among Financial Advisors

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UMH adoption challenges
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The industry’s attention around direct indexing has surged over the past five years. However, adoption of these solutions among financial advisors has yet to match the perceived popularity across the wealth management landscape, according to the report The Cerulli Edge–U.S. Managed Accounts Edition.

According to the Boston-based global consultancy, overall demand for separately managed accounts (SMAs)—including direct indexing strategies—remains high throughout the wealth management sector.

At the end of 2024, direct indexing assets totaled $864.3 billion, compared to $9.4 trillion in indexed ETFs and $6.6 trillion in mutual funds. Adoption of direct indexing models remains low at $17.2 billion, but this has more than tripled since Q4 2021.

About half of distribution executives in 2024 cited model-based SMAs (53%) and manager-directed SMAs (44%) as the most in-demand products for wirehouses and broker/dealers.

While demand is not as strong among independent registered investment advisors (RIAs)—with 27% demand for model-based and 34% for manager-directed—there is still substantial interest in these strategies.

By the end of 2024, direct indexing strategies accounted for 37.6% of manager-traded assets declared by SMA asset managers, more than doubling since 2020.

Although the sector has seen strong growth in direct indexing, there is still a long way to go, as only a small segment of financial advisors has adopted the solution.

In 2024, 18% of advisors reported using direct indexing strategies, up from 16% in 2023. More than a quarter of advisors (26%) choose not to use it despite having access to the strategy, and 12% do not know what direct indexing is.

“Advisor education is crucial for adoption, as it’s unlikely that advisors will recommend direct indexing strategies to their clients if they don’t fully understand them,” explained Michael Manning, research analyst at Cerulli.

“Wealth and asset managers who want advisors to adopt these solutions must make a concerted effort to educate them on potential use cases, added benefits, and the tax optimization element,” he added.

Although both the buzz around direct indexing and the interest from industry firms are significant, it’s important to remember that the core goal of these strategies is to deliver better outcomes for clients to help them meet their objectives.

“As the industry evolves and product innovation moves rapidly, stakeholders must continue to monitor how their offerings fit into the changing ecosystem,” said Manning. “Both wealth and asset managers are working to add these capabilities to their platforms, so adoption is likely to be uneven, and firms that create the best advisory experiences will gain market share,” he concluded.