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An ETF to Capture the New Energy Revolution

gondolas-4741067_1920 — Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. Un ETF para capturar la revolución energética

The crowds of tourists vanished from Venice’s historic canals. Fish were seen swimming in the city’s normally murky waterways. Then, NASA published satellite images of Earth, showing a dramatic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions across all the major cities under lockdown.

For a moment, we saw what a future low-carbon world might look like.

Demand for new energy grew in 2020

During a turbulent 2020, demand for energy generated by coal and oil fell by 8.5% and 6.7% respectively. But demand for renewable energy rose by +1%.

Renewable energy demonstrated its reliability, even in a recession. The massive stimulus response from central banks created favourable financing conditions for both wind and photovoltaic (PV) solar projects. And some institutional investors even saw new energy as a safer-haven investment, as its returns can have lower correlation to more mainstream asset classes.

This progress was happening as fossil fuel demand plummeted to its lowest level in more than 70 years. At one point, oil futures were trading at negative prices due to a massive glut in supply.

The chart below from the IEA shows the global energy demand by source in 2020:

Misconceptions persist about renewable energy

Although demand for renewable energy remained positive during the pandemic and more people are carbon-aware than ever, there are still many misconceptions about it.

These misconceptions are gradually being debunked – and new energy sources could see a major increase in investment as a result. Let’s address three common concerns about renewables and new energy now:

Misconception #1: “Renewable energy is just hype”

Renewable energy is being adopted because it makes financial sense. Over half the coal plants operating today cost more to run than building new renewable energy infrastructure instead. Even cancelling new coal power station projects today could save more than half a trillion dollars globally.

The ‘levelised cost of energy’ (LCOE), which is directly linked to the costs to build and operate an energy generator, has fallen significantly for both wind and photovoltaic solar power. Across the globe, LCOE for wind, solar and battery storage has plummeted over the past decade, led by technological advances and increasing cumulative installed capacity, which have progressively reduced costs.

The cost of renewable energy and battery storage has plummeted

The chart below from BloombergNEF shows the Global LCOE benchmarks for PV, wind and batteries:

Misconception #2: “All fossil fuel-related financing is unsustainable”

The world needs energy to power the economic growth that makes the low-carbon transition possible. While directly financing fossil fuel plants is not sustainable, the financing of energy efficiency for fossil fuels does help us transition towards a more sustainable world. Rather than stopping all investment in fossil fuel-related companies, it would be more effective to improve the efficiency of the existing energy model, even as we manage the transition to the low-carbon model.

We want to – and must – move towards the new energy model. But in the meantime, we have fossil fuels to manage, and improving the energy efficiency existing fossil fuel plants is an important part of that.

Many energy companies have been moving towards ‘combined-cycle’ power plants that use both a gas and a steam turbine to produce energy. General Electric has estimated that up to 50% more electricity using the same fuel can be produced this way.

Natural gas is still a fossil fuel, but it is cleaner. Burning natural gas for energy results in lower emissions for nearly all types of air pollutants. It also complements new energy well, because combined-cycle turbines are cheap to get going and can provide power at short notice or when renewable energy is not available. The two technologies used in combination could drastically cut greenhouse gas emissions.

Misconception #3: “New energy is only viable because of subsidies”

The new energy market has developed to such an extent that subsidies are no longer needed in most parts of the world. For instance, the feed-in tariff system used by European countries to accelerate investment into new energy technology has largely come to an end.

It is being replaced by a more dynamic power purchase agreement market (PPAs), which are agreements to supply energy at a fixed price and quantity. The result is that energy companies get a guaranteed cash flow, and clients receive a guaranteed price and supply of energy.

None of this would be possible unless new energy was cheap, reliable and profitable to produce. Thanks to technical improvements and more competitive marginal costs – led by the ‘learning curve’ of renewable energy that reduces costs as more is produced – this sector needs less and less subsidy.

In our view, this is a structural shift, because the cost of renewables will decline over time. Fossil fuel costs will not decline over time – they may even increase over time, as most of the accessible sources have already been extracted. Now, fossil fuel Exploration & Production (E&P) companies must increasingly target controversial reserves that are harder to extract, such as those in the Arctic, tar sands, or shale gas.

Finally, the EU ‘Green Deal’ will also drive capital towards new energy companies, while the EU is thinking of significantly reducing fossil fuel subsidies as they undermine the efforts to reach carbon neutrality by 2050, as enshrined in the Paris Agreement.

While we at Lyxor talk a lot about the Paris-Aligned and Climate Transition benchmarks for net zero investing, these are not the only relevant strategies. Trends to be financed by green deal are broader than that, including sustainable mobility and smarter city infrastructure.

How to get investment exposure to new energy

One way to gain a targeted investment exposure to new energy is through the Lyxor New Energy (DR) UCITS ETF. It tracks the world’s 40 largest companies operating in three key areas of the new energy industry: renewables, distributed energy, and energy efficiency.

Ørsted – Renewable energy

Danish power company Ørsted (formerly DONG Energy) is a global leader in the offshore wind market. It is in a strong position to capitalise on the soaring demand for new energy needs in Europe due to the emission quotas defined in the Paris Agreement.

What’s fascinating about this company is that it was once fossil-fuel focused. In 2017, the group sold its oil and gas business to British chemicals company Ineos. More recently, it offloaded its liquefied natural gas operations to Glencore. Instead of returning the cash from the sale of these businesses to investors, the company chose to make a big push into offshore wind.

Ørsted was one of the first energy companies in the world to have a greenhouse gas emissions reduction target approved by the Science Based Targets initiative, and it estimates its target is 27 years ahead of schedule compared to the 2°C scenario for the energy sector as projected by the IEA.

Plug Power – Distributed energy

Distributed energy is the concept of global decentralised electricity production close to the point of consumption. Hydrogen is part of this, and green hydrogen in particular can be an extraordinary zero-carbon source of electricity.

As a result, an important area of development in new energy is storage – stationary storage stations, or onboard vehicles, vessels, planes, and so on. American company Plug Power develops hydrogen fuel cells to replace traditional batteries in electric vehicles and supplies these cells to major clients including Amazon and Walmart.

Distributed energy is what can bring resilience, contrary to hyper centralised production and grid systems. It’s also a game-changer for renewables, whose main drawback is that they are intermittent, and unable to – for example – provide 24/7 power to a hospital. With distributed energy systems, renewable energy can become a more stable energy source.

NIBE Industrier AB – Energy efficiency

Swedish company NIBE builds and sells solutions to reduce energy consumption and improve efficiency. It develops, manufactures and markets a range of energy-efficient solutions for climate comfort in all types of property, plus components and solutions for intelligent heating in industry and infrastructure.

This includes heat pumps and solar cells for private houses, the renovation of old buildings, public buildings, and even development of products for efficient energy utilisation in cars, such as elements for battery heaters and interior heaters that use sources such as braking energy.

NIBE’s heat pumps are being used in a new housing project in the Kortenoord district of Wageningen, The Netherlands, where around 1,000 homes are being built without a gas pipeline. The houses have optimum insulation and are equipped with energy-saving products such as heat pumps, solar panels and solar water heaters.

A megatrend in progress

New energy is part of a megatrend – one that will radically shape the society and business models of the future, underpinned by the global effort to achieve net zero by 2050.

This imperative explains the significant amount of investment flowing into the new energy industry. $282 billion of renewable energy capacity was financed in 2019, led by onshore and offshore wind with $138 billion, followed by solar at $131 billion.

And yet, this shift is just beginning. A revolution is underway in the energy market. It wasn’t started by the pandemic – this is a structural movement towards new energy that has developed over several years, backed by falling costs. It was recently accelerated by the events of 2020, that reduced demand for fossil fuels and related industries such as steel and cement.

Ultimately, renewable energies are on a declining cost trajectory, while fossil fuels have high and fixed costs. That cost trajectory implies that renewables will be cheaper than fossil fuels, which is already true in many cases, with or without disruptive global events.

The pandemic accelerated what was already happening in the new energy industry. It has acted as a catalyst for more rapid change. For investors, the Lyxor New Energy ETF, which recently passed $1 billion in assets under management, could be a great way to get involved in this change and become part of the new energy revolution.

A column by Paloma Torres, Associate, ETF CRM and Sales for Iberia and Latam in Lyxor Asset Management

BNY Mellon IM Appoints Sasha Evers as Head of Retail Distribution for Europe and Ralph Elder as Head of Iberia and Latin America

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BNY Mellon Investment Management has announced this week changes in leadership roles at a global level, starting with the appointment of Sasha Evers as head of retail distribution for Europe. Based in Madrid, he will report to Matt Oomen, global head of distribution, and Ralph Elder will take over his role as head of Iberia and Latin America.

In this newly created role, Evers will be responsible for leading, defining and executing the firm’s distribution strategy in Europe’s retail segment. He will work closely with its investment firms, including Newton Investment Management, Insight Investment and Walter Scott, “to provide clients with high quality, relevant investment strategies that meet their needs and objectives”, the asset manager pointed out in a press release.

His appointment comes after Hilary Lopez, head of European intermediary distribution, announced that she has decided to leave the company after 11 years “to pursue other opportunities”.

Evers has been with BNY Mellon IM for more than 21 years and was most recently head of Iberia and Latin America. Now, Ralph Elder, formerly director of sales for the Iberian region, will assume the leadership of those businesses. Elder has been with the company two decades and has been key in the development of the Iberia business.

Strengthen European presence

“The retail market in Europe is a strategically important part of our business. Sasha has a proven track record of building successful businesses and teams, developing longstanding client relationships and growing assets. I am thrilled to be working more closely with him as we drive further growth in the segment and strengthen our presence across Europe”, said Matt Oomen, global head of distribution at BNY Mellon IM.

He also claimed to be “delighted” that Elder will lead the Iberia and Latin America businesses because he has played “an integral role” in building them alongside Evers over the past 20 years. “I would also like to thank Hilary for her many contributions to the firm and wish her the very best in her future endeavours”, he added.

Meanwhile, Evers commented: “I am very excited by this opportunity to lead our retail distribution strategy in Europe. I look forward to working with all our businesses across the Continent to drive further our growth in this key client segment. Ralph has been a key driver of our success in the Iberia region and I am delighted that he will lead our Iberia and Latin America businesses going forward.”

GameStop Hungover and Love-The-Planet bets

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monitor-1307227_640 — Pixabay CC0 Public DomainMonitores. Monitores

Many U.S. stock market benchmarks rallied to record highs during the first three weeks of January then dropped sharply at month end as the GameStop short squeeze (Tulip Mania 1636/7) dynamics unnerved investors. U.S. stocks closed mixed for the month as the annual 2020 earnings season got off to a good start.

Love Our Planet and People (LOPP:NYSE), our new actively traded non-transparent ETF for the decade of the 20s, is based on saving Planet Earth, helping people and creating the potential for saving the planet, and by focusing on the impact of climate change as well as on reducing/recycling plastic and on innovative companies that are developing new and sustainable solutions to carbon reduction.

Renewables, including wind, solar, battery storage and building infrastructure for transmission are the areas we want represented by some portfolio companies. The entire environmental ecosystem is receiving increasing investor focus.

One of the Gabelli stock ‘picks’ mentioned in BARRON’s 2021 Roundtable Part 2, published in the January 25 issue, that is directly impacting climate change is the Connecticut based sustainable energy company, Avangrid Inc. (AGR:NYSE), an energy and utility company, and a love-the-planet play. Spanish utility Iberdrola (IBE SM-Madrid), owns 260 million shares. Avangrid announced in October that it plans to acquire PNM Resources (PNM:NYSE). Iberdrola understands the renewables world and is well positioned in the U.S. Our equity research concludes the company could spinout a portion of Avangrid’s renewables business as a yield, similar to NextEra Energy’s (NEE:NYSE) spinout of NextEra Energy Partners (NEP:NYSE), and thereby create a higher valuation. The PNM deal will add significantly to Avangrid’s revenue and EBITDA, and investors will get a solid dividend with a current yield of around 3.80%.

In the world of merger arbitrage, dealmaking momentum carried into the new year, with global deal activity increasing 38% year-over-year to $300 billion.

Finally, the global convertible market followed up on a remarkable year with another strong month in January. The primary market was quite active as $12.6bn was offered globally. This new issuance performed well, despite some aggressive pricing. We expect this to continue through the year as companies can raise capital at attractive terms.

With 10 year US treasuries moving higher we are starting to hear from some investors concerned about how convertibles will act in a rising rate environment. Historically convertibles are driven more by underlying equity performance than interest rates and we anticipate this will be the case this time as well. With duration at all-time lows, there are only a few select convertibles that may be significantly impacted by rising rates. For example, since August 10 year rates are up 60 bps, however convertibles are up 31%, driven by underlying equity performance of 38%.

Overall, the investment team is enthusiastic about the prospects for further gains within convertibles while “staying” invested in equities with the benefit of asymmetric risk exposure. When equity volatility increases, convertibles’ yield advantage, maturity, and position in the capital structure help them to outperform.

_____________________________________________________

To access our proprietary value investment methodology, and dedicated merger arbitrage portfolio we offer the following UCITS Funds in each discipline:

GAMCO MERGER ARBITRAGE

GAMCO Merger Arbitrage UCITS Fund, launched in October 2011, is an open-end fund incorporated in Luxembourg and compliant with UCITS regulation. The team, dedicated strategy, and record dates back to 1985. The objective of the GAMCO Merger Arbitrage Fund is to achieve long-term capital growth by investing primarily in announced equity merger and acquisition transactions while maintaining a diversified portfolio. The Fund utilizes a highly specialized investment approach designed principally to profit from the successful completion of proposed mergers, takeovers, tender offers, leveraged buyouts and other types of corporate reorganizations. Analyzes and continuously monitors each pending transaction for potential risk, including: regulatory, terms, financing, and shareholder approval.

Merger investments are a highly liquid, non-market correlated, proven and consistent alternative to traditional fixed income and equity securities. Merger returns are dependent on deal spreads. Deal spreads are a function of time, deal risk premium, and interest rates. Returns are thus correlated to interest rate changes over the medium term and not the broader equity market. The prospect of rising rates would imply higher returns on mergers as spreads widen to compensate arbitrageurs. As bond markets decline (interest rates rise), merger returns should improve as capital allocation decisions adjust to the changes in the costs of capital.

Broad Market volatility can lead to widening of spreads in merger positions, coupled with our well-researched merger portfolios, offer the potential for enhanced IRRs through dynamic position sizing. Daily price volatility fluctuations coupled with less proprietary capital (the Volcker rule) in the U.S. have contributed to improving merger spreads and thus, overall returns. Thus our fund is well positioned as a cash substitute or fixed income alternative.

Our objectives are to compound and preserve wealth over time, while remaining non-correlated to the broad global markets. We created our first dedicated merger fund 32 years ago. Since then, our merger performance has grown client assets at an annualized rate of approximately 10.7% gross and 7.6% net since 1985. Today, we manage assets on behalf of institutional and high net worth clients globally in a variety of fund structures and mandates.

Class I USD – LU0687944552
Class I EUR – LU0687944396
Class A USD – LU0687943745
Class A EUR – LU0687943661
Class R USD – LU1453360825
Class R EUR – LU1453361476

GAMCO ALL CAP VALUE

The GAMCO All Cap Value UCITS Fund launched in May, 2015 utilizes Gabelli’s its proprietary PMV with a Catalyst™ investment methodology, which has been in place since 1977. The Fund seeks absolute returns through event driven value investing. Our methodology centers around fundamental, research-driven, value based investing with a focus on asset values, cash flows and identifiable catalysts to maximize returns independent of market direction. The fund draws on the experience of its global portfolio team and 35+ value research analysts.

GAMCO is an active, bottom-up, value investor, and seeks to achieve real capital appreciation (relative to inflation) over the long term regardless of market cycles. Our value-oriented stock selection process is based on the fundamental investment principles first articulated in 1934 by Graham and Dodd, the founders of modern security analysis, and further augmented by Mario Gabelli in 1977 with his introduction of the concepts of Private Market Value (PMV) with a Catalyst™ into equity analysis. PMV with a Catalyst™ is our unique research methodology that focuses on individual stock selection by identifying firms selling below intrinsic value with a reasonable probability of realizing their PMV’s which we define as the price a strategic or financial acquirer would be willing to pay for the entire enterprise. The fundamental valuation factors utilized to evaluate securities prior to inclusion/exclusion into the portfolio, our research driven approach views fundamental analysis as a three pronged approach: free cash flow (earnings before, interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA, minus the capital expenditures necessary to grow/maintain the business); earnings per share trends; and private market value (PMV), which encompasses on and off balance sheet assets and liabilities. Our team arrives at a PMV valuation by a rigorous assessment of fundamentals from publicly available information and judgement gained from meeting management, covering all size companies globally and our comprehensive, accumulated knowledge of a variety of sectors. We then identify businesses for the portfolio possessing the proper margin of safety and research variables from our deep research universe.

Class I USD – LU1216601648
Class I EUR – LU1216601564
Class A USD – LU1216600913
Class A EUR – LU1216600673
Class R USD – LU1453359900
Class R EUR – LU1453360155

GAMCO CONVERTIBLE SECURITIES

GAMCO Convertible Securities’ objective is to seek to provide current income as well as long term capital appreciation through a total return strategy by investing in a diversified portfolio of global convertible securities.

The Fund leverages the firm’s history of investing in dedicated convertible security portfolios since 1979.

The fund invests in convertible securities, as well as other instruments that have economic characteristics similar to such securities, across global markets (but the fund will not invest in contingent convertible notes). The fund may invest in securities of any market capitalization or credit quality, including up to 100% in below investment grade or unrated securities, and may from time to time invest a significant amount of its assets in securities of smaller companies. Convertible securities may include any suitable convertible instruments such as convertible bonds, convertible notes or convertible preference shares.

By actively managing the fund and investing in convertible securities, the investment manager seeks the opportunity to participate in the capital appreciation of underlying stocks, while at the same time relying on the fixed income aspect of the convertible securities to provide current income and reduced price volatility, which can limit the risk of loss in a down equity market.

Class I USD LU2264533006

Class I EUR LU2264532966

Class A USD LU2264532701

Class A EUR LU2264532610

Class R USD LU2264533345

Class R EUR LU2264533261

Class F USD LU2264533691

Class F EUR LU2264533428

Disclaimer:
The information and any opinions have been obtained from or are based on sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No responsibility can be accepted for any consequential loss arising from the use of this information. The information is expressed at its date and is issued only to and directed only at those individuals who are permitted to receive such information in accordance with the applicable statutes. In some countries the distribution of this publication may be restricted. It is your responsibility to ﬁnd out what those restrictions are and observe them.

Some of the statements in this presentation may contain or be based on forward looking statements, forecasts, estimates, projections, targets, or prognosis (“forward looking statements”), which reﬂect the manager’s current view of future events, economic developments and ﬁnancial performance. Such forward looking statements are typically indicated by the use of words which express an estimate, expectation, belief, target or forecast. Such forward looking statements are based on an assessment of historical economic data, on the experience and current plans of the investment manager and/or certain advisors of the manager, and on the indicated sources. These forward looking statements contain no representation or warranty of whatever kind that such future events will occur or that they will occur as described herein, or that such results will be achieved by the fund or the investments of the fund, as the occurrence of these events and the results of the fund are subject to various risks and uncertainties. The actual portfolio, and thus results, of the fund may differ substantially from those assumed in the forward looking statements. The manager and its affiliates will not undertake to update or review the forward looking statements contained in this presentation, whether as result of new information or any future event or otherwise.

HMC Itajubá Leads CD&R to One of the Largest Private Equity Fundraises in Latin America

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laguna-5154700_960_720 — Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. HMC Itajubá apoya a CD&R en uno de las recaudaciones de fondos de private equity más grandes de la región

Clayton, Dubilier & Rice (“CD&R”), a global private investment firm advised by HMC Itajubá, a leading financial LatAm advisory and investment firm, closed on 1.2 billion dollars from Latin America investors for the firm’s latest flagship fund. Investors from the region accounted for 7% of the new fund (CD&R XI) and the capital committed represents one of the largest fundraises for a buyout manager in Latin America to date.

The Latin America capital for CD&R fund was raised in all major markets and led by Andean Region with 74.1% of the capital, followed by Brazil with 16.6% and Mexico with 9.3%respectively. By type of investors, institutional investors, like Pension Funds and Insurance Companies, represented 70% and Private Investors, including Feeder vehicles, were the remaining 30%. The closing involves more than 90 investors from the region, demonstrating the increasing potential of the region for private equity fund investments.

“We are very proud of this closing because it shows the growth potential of Latin America into the alternatives ecosystem. HMC Itajubá team is working hard to make great things happen in this type of investment in the region,” said Ricardo Morales, Co-founder at HMC Itajubá.

“We are delighted to see how private investors move an important part of their portfolios to alternative investments and they represented a significant part of the commitments in this fundraise of CD&R,” commented Agnaldo Andrade, Co-founder HMC Itajuba.

“We are grateful to our investors in Latin America for their strong support and were delighted to work with HMC Itajubá team on this important project,” said Thomas Franco, CD&R Partner. “The success of the fundraise is a critical milestone and validates the growing and broad appreciation among asset owners for private equity-related investments in the region.”

Earlier this year, CD&R was recognized by Private Equity International Awards as the Firm of the Year in the Large-Cap North America category for 2020. “The firm has announced at least 10 new investments since March, making 2020 its most active year to date”, the Private Equity International Awards report said on the announcement. Clayton, Dubilier & Rice (“CD&R”), a global private

Azimut Global Asset Management Team Strengthens in Mexico with the Acquisition of KAAN Capital

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Imagen1 — Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. Un gestor de activos especializado en acciones locales

The Azimut Group, one of the largest independent asset managers in Europe, through its subsidiary AZ Mexico Holding, signed today an agreement to acquire 51% of the capital of KAAN Capital, an independent asset manager and advisory firm specializing in Mexican equities. KAAN is made up of a group of senior managers and analysts with a solid track record, and offers asset management and advisory services to institutional and HNW clients. Upon completion of the transaction, KAAN will be renamed Azimut-KAAN.

Headquartered in Mexico City, KAAN was founded by Alberto Rodriguez and Josè Fierro – current General Manager and Investment Director of Azimut-KAAN – who together have over 50 years of experience in the Mexican equity market as well as in the management of local funds and mandates for institutional clients, international sovereign funds, pension funds and HNWIs.

Thanks to this partnership, Azimut enters the investment advisory sector in Mexico, thus expanding the range of asset management services for local clients and strengthening its presence in a country where it has operated since 2014 through Más Fondos, the leading Mexican multi-manager company operating through an integrated and independent business model. Más Fondos continues to grow in financial advisory through the recruitment of financial advisors. The partnership with KAAN has effectively been already in place, since KAAN is the advisor of Más Fondos’ local equity fund, AZMT – V1 launched last December, with assets of 330 million Mexican pesos. Thanks to the expertise of over 120 managers in 18 investment hubs that make up the Azimut Global Asset Management Team, Mas Fondos is about to launch three new funds that will be listed on the Bolsa Institucional de Valores (BIVA).

The mutual fund industry in Mexico totals approximately 130 billion dollars and accounts for just under 10% of total GDP, a small percentage when compared to those of the major Latin American economies. More than 70% of assets are concentrated on low-risk fixed income strategies, while exposure to local equities has reached some of the lowest levels in recent years, which can be an interesting opportunity following a value approach.

Mexico, with a population of 130 million, is the second largest economy in Latin America and the largest in Central America with a purchasing power parity GDP of approximately 1,3 trillion dollars in 2019 (15th globally). With a debt-to-GDP ratio below 60%, Mexico is among the most virtuous countries in Latin America. The Mexican economy has private consumption and high export as its main growth drivers, while more than 60% of its GDP comes from the service sector and just under 30% from the industrial sector3 .

Giorgio Medda, CEO and Head of Asset Management of Azimut Group, comments: “The transaction with KAAN confirms Azimut Group’s constant interest in investing in asset management capabilities, continuing to improve services to its customers, both locally and globally, and further consolidating the presence and skills of the Global Team in Latin America. In addition, the partnership with KAAN fits perfectly with the development of our integrated financial advisory platform in the asset management industry in Mexico “.

Alberto Rodriguez and Josè Fierro comment: “We are thrilled to join forces with one of the world’s leading independent asset managers who shares our core values and investment approach. This partnership will allow KAAN to grow at a faster pace and, above all, will benefit our customers as the global approach and expertise of the Azimut Group will complement our knowledge and experience of the Mexican market.”

Santander Private Banking to Acquire Indosuez Wealth Management in Miami

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compra santander — Foto cedida. Santander Private Banking acuerda la compra del negocio de banca privada de Indosuez en Miami

Santander Private Banking has reached an agreement with Indosuez Wealth Management –the global wealth management brand of Crédit Agricole group– to purchase 4.3 billion dollars in client assets and liabilities. The firm has announced in a press release that the transaction is subject to regulatory approval and is expected to close by midyear 2021.

“This transaction, which leverages our geographic presence and our capabilities as a leading financial group, is another step toward our goal of becoming the best global private banking platform. We want to keep growing our business –especially in geographies where we see major commercial potential like the US– and elevate our position as a growth engine for Grupo Santander”, said the Global Head of Santander Wealth Management & Insurance, Víctor Matarranz.

Meanwhile, Jacques Prost, CEO at Indosuez, commented that, after close evaluation of a number of international bidders, Santander’s proposal for the Miami business stood out to Indosuez thanks to the bank’s high quality and strong reputation.

“We are confident that this is the right fit to meet the interests of our clients and our people in Miami, ensuring a smooth transition and building on Santander’s sizeable footprint and 42-year long experience in the region. Indosuez’s decision to leave the Miami market was carefully considered due to our longstanding presence in the region, but was made in line with Indosuez’s strategy of focusing and expanding its presence in its key markets”, he added.

Santander US CEO Tim Wennes also assessed the acquisition, pointing out that it is part of the growth strategy for Santander US, which includes organic and inorganic opportunities. “I am confident that the team will provide world-class services to our new clients from Indosuez”, he said.

The bank has explained that the transaction will be executed through Banco Santander International (BSI), part of Santander Private Banking, Grupo Santander’s business unit dedicated to the private banking segment. Santander Private Banking manages a volume of 230 billion euros in customer assets and liabilities. BSI is a wholly owned subsidiary of Santander Holdings USA, Inc., Banco Santander’s intermediate holding company in the U.S.

The Federal Reserve Is in the Asset Purchase Taper Spotlight Once Again, What Should We Expect?

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one-3125379_640 — Pixabay CC0 Public DomainDólar. Dólar

The U.S. stock market rallied to record highs during the first three weeks of February, then dropped sharply as the U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield set a one-year high of 1.614% on February 26, prompting concerns about the extreme valuations of selected stocks. At month end, stocks were higher for both February and for the first quarter to date.

The Fed is in the asset purchase (QE) taper spotlight once again as rising nominal and real longer term UST rates reflect expectations that inflation may rise as the economic recovery strengthens due to unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus, rising consumer spending from virus relief checks, rising cumulative COVID-19 vaccinations given, and surging government debt to pay the bill. The U.S. economy is opening up and the Fed may need to tap on the brakes. In Congressional testimony on February 23, Fed Chair Powell told the Senate Banking Committee that the Fed’s primary focus is now on the total number of people with jobs and getting workers back into the labour market. With regard to inflation, he said, “this is not a problem for this time as near as I can figure.”

Berkshire Hathaway ended the ‘mystery stock’ guessing game in a filing on February 16 when it disclosed large year-end positions in Verizon and Chevron. In Warren Buffett’s released letter to Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway, he states: In its brief 232 years of existence, however, there has been no incubator for unleashing human potential like America. Despite some severe interruptions, our country’s economic progress has been breath taking…Our unwavering conclusion: Never bet against America.

Dealmaking remained robust in February with $390 billion in new deals announced, bringing global volume to $680 billion year to date, an increase of nearly 20% over 2020 levels. Performance in February was bolstered by deals that progressed towards completion, and we crystalized profits on deals that closed including BioTelemetry’s $3 billion acquisition by Philips, Virtusa’s $2 billion acquisition by Canada Pension Plan, and People Corp’s $1.2 billion acquisition by Goldman Sachs. Newly announced deals in February, including Viela Bio’s $3 billion acquisition by Horizon Therapeutics, have added to a strong pipeline of pending deals in which to invest.

Lastly, in the convertibles space, February issuance continued at a rapid pace, however new issue pricing became a bit stretched with a number of companies able to price zero coupon bonds at high premiums. While this is great for the balance sheets of these issuers, it is not always an attractive way for us to invest in these companies. Fortunately, there are many existing issues with attractive terms available to us. In the first few days of March, new issue pricing already improved after a few of these unattractive issues underperformed, and investors pushed back on the aggressive pricing assumptions.

US Treasury yields have been moving higher, and traditionally this has been a good time for convertibles. Going back over 20 years, whenever US 10-year treasury yields are up 100 basis points or more, convertibles have moved higher, because their prices are more a function of the underlying stock price than a function of yield. We are closing in on another 100 basis point move and again converts will have moved higher through the time period. In the twelve months following each rising rate period, convertibles have returned over 8%, on average. We are positioned well to take advantage of this dynamic.

We continue to invest in convertibles with an expectation of long-term total returns through a mix of income and capital appreciation. Their asymmetrical return profile allows us to stay invested and participate in rising equity markets with reduced volatility. As interest rates move higher we anticipate improving prices on new issues, expanding our available universe of attractive investments.

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To access our proprietary value investment methodology, and dedicated merger arbitrage portfolio we offer the following UCITS Funds in each discipline:

GAMCO MERGER ARBITRAGE

GAMCO Merger Arbitrage UCITS Fund, launched in October 2011, is an open-end fund incorporated in Luxembourg and compliant with UCITS regulation. The team, dedicated strategy, and record dates back to 1985. The objective of the GAMCO Merger Arbitrage Fund is to achieve long-term capital growth by investing primarily in announced equity merger and acquisition transactions while maintaining a diversified portfolio. The Fund utilizes a highly specialized investment approach designed principally to profit from the successful completion of proposed mergers, takeovers, tender offers, leveraged buyouts and other types of corporate reorganizations. Analyzes and continuously monitors each pending transaction for potential risk, including: regulatory, terms, financing, and shareholder approval.

Merger investments are a highly liquid, non-market correlated, proven and consistent alternative to traditional fixed income and equity securities. Merger returns are dependent on deal spreads. Deal spreads are a function of time, deal risk premium, and interest rates. Returns are thus correlated to interest rate changes over the medium term and not the broader equity market. The prospect of rising rates would imply higher returns on mergers as spreads widen to compensate arbitrageurs. As bond markets decline (interest rates rise), merger returns should improve as capital allocation decisions adjust to the changes in the costs of capital.

Broad Market volatility can lead to widening of spreads in merger positions, coupled with our well-researched merger portfolios, offer the potential for enhanced IRRs through dynamic position sizing. Daily price volatility fluctuations coupled with less proprietary capital (the Volcker rule) in the U.S. have contributed to improving merger spreads and thus, overall returns. Thus our fund is well positioned as a cash substitute or fixed income alternative.

Our objectives are to compound and preserve wealth over time, while remaining non-correlated to the broad global markets. We created our first dedicated merger fund 32 years ago. Since then, our merger performance has grown client assets at an annualized rate of approximately 10.7% gross and 7.6% net since 1985. Today, we manage assets on behalf of institutional and high net worth clients globally in a variety of fund structures and mandates.

Class I USD – LU0687944552
Class I EUR – LU0687944396
Class A USD – LU0687943745
Class A EUR – LU0687943661
Class R USD – LU1453360825
Class R EUR – LU1453361476

GAMCO ALL CAP VALUE

The GAMCO All Cap Value UCITS Fund launched in May, 2015 utilizes Gabelli’s its proprietary PMV with a Catalyst™ investment methodology, which has been in place since 1977. The Fund seeks absolute returns through event driven value investing. Our methodology centers around fundamental, research-driven, value based investing with a focus on asset values, cash flows and identifiable catalysts to maximize returns independent of market direction. The fund draws on the experience of its global portfolio team and 35+ value research analysts.

GAMCO is an active, bottom-up, value investor, and seeks to achieve real capital appreciation (relative to inflation) over the long term regardless of market cycles. Our value-oriented stock selection process is based on the fundamental investment principles first articulated in 1934 by Graham and Dodd, the founders of modern security analysis, and further augmented by Mario Gabelli in 1977 with his introduction of the concepts of Private Market Value (PMV) with a Catalyst™ into equity analysis. PMV with a Catalyst™ is our unique research methodology that focuses on individual stock selection by identifying firms selling below intrinsic value with a reasonable probability of realizing their PMV’s which we define as the price a strategic or financial acquirer would be willing to pay for the entire enterprise. The fundamental valuation factors utilized to evaluate securities prior to inclusion/exclusion into the portfolio, our research driven approach views fundamental analysis as a three pronged approach: free cash flow (earnings before, interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA, minus the capital expenditures necessary to grow/maintain the business); earnings per share trends; and private market value (PMV), which encompasses on and off balance sheet assets and liabilities. Our team arrives at a PMV valuation by a rigorous assessment of fundamentals from publicly available information and judgement gained from meeting management, covering all size companies globally and our comprehensive, accumulated knowledge of a variety of sectors. We then identify businesses for the portfolio possessing the proper margin of safety and research variables from our deep research universe.

Class I USD – LU1216601648
Class I EUR – LU1216601564
Class A USD – LU1216600913
Class A EUR – LU1216600673
Class R USD – LU1453359900
Class R EUR – LU1453360155

GAMCO CONVERTIBLE SECURITIES

GAMCO Convertible Securities’ objective is to seek to provide current income as well as long term capital appreciation through a total return strategy by investing in a diversified portfolio of global convertible securities.

The Fund leverages the firm’s history of investing in dedicated convertible security portfolios since 1979.

The fund invests in convertible securities, as well as other instruments that have economic characteristics similar to such securities, across global markets (but the fund will not invest in contingent convertible notes). The fund may invest in securities of any market capitalization or credit quality, including up to 100% in below investment grade or unrated securities, and may from time to time invest a significant amount of its assets in securities of smaller companies. Convertible securities may include any suitable convertible instruments such as convertible bonds, convertible notes or convertible preference shares.

By actively managing the fund and investing in convertible securities, the investment manager seeks the opportunity to participate in the capital appreciation of underlying stocks, while at the same time relying on the fixed income aspect of the convertible securities to provide current income and reduced price volatility, which can limit the risk of loss in a down equity market.

Class I USD LU2264533006

Class I EUR LU2264532966

Class A USD LU2264532701

Class A EUR LU2264532610

Class R USD LU2264533345

Class R EUR LU2264533261

Class F USD LU2264533691

Class F EUR LU2264533428

Disclaimer:
The information and any opinions have been obtained from or are based on sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No responsibility can be accepted for any consequential loss arising from the use of this information. The information is expressed at its date and is issued only to and directed only at those individuals who are permitted to receive such information in accordance with the applicable statutes. In some countries the distribution of this publication may be restricted. It is your responsibility to ﬁnd out what those restrictions are and observe them.

Some of the statements in this presentation may contain or be based on forward looking statements, forecasts, estimates, projections, targets, or prognosis (“forward looking statements”), which reﬂect the manager’s current view of future events, economic developments and ﬁnancial performance. Such forward looking statements are typically indicated by the use of words which express an estimate, expectation, belief, target or forecast. Such forward looking statements are based on an assessment of historical economic data, on the experience and current plans of the investment manager and/or certain advisors of the manager, and on the indicated sources. These forward looking statements contain no representation or warranty of whatever kind that such future events will occur or that they will occur as described herein, or that such results will be achieved by the fund or the investments of the fund, as the occurrence of these events and the results of the fund are subject to various risks and uncertainties. The actual portfolio, and thus results, of the fund may differ substantially from those assumed in the forward looking statements. The manager and its affiliates will not undertake to update or review the forward looking statements contained in this presentation, whether as result of new information or any future event or otherwise.

The Unsung Heroes of COVID-19 Equity Markets

| For Cecilia Prieto | 0 Comentarios

printed-circuit-board-3113719_640 — Pixabay CC0 Public DomainMicrochips. Microchips

As has been well-documented, equity markets were quick to recognize the increase in demand for many online services and businesses ranging from Amazon to Zoom (with many more in between). Many, including the FAANG stocks, have escalated in value as retail investors with their stimulus checks, as well as institutions, have piled back into equity markets since the March 2020 plunge. However, the ability of many of those businesses to deliver their virtual goods and services is dependent on the infrastructure that they use.

Perhaps somewhat overlooked are data center and semiconductor businesses, particularly memory chips vital to facilitating the digital economy. Despite their criticality to the digital economy and their ability to generate attractive cash flows and returns on capital, memory stocks continue to trade at a discount to other semiconductor and IT-related stocks. There is also a shortage of supply of the chips needed for many applications, including automotive, which should increase producer value until supply catches up. It typically takes more than two years to build a fabrication facility and ramp up production.

While we are generally bullish on the digital economy, we are finding attractive prospects in ‘old’ economy companies as well. Large U.S.-based banks are well capitalized and have been conservative in provisioning for potential risks in their loan and credit card portfolios during the COVID crisis. Given the significant support from the Fed and the U.S. government through the crisis, the economy has held up relatively well, all things considered.

This suggests that banks may end up overcompensating for loan losses, which could drive provision reversals in later periods, further supporting earnings growth. Additionally, banks stand to benefit from a rise in rates over time. As we look forward, we are encouraged by banks that are investing materially in digital transformation and innovation, such as developing attractive and convenient-to-use apps and tools for consumers and businesses. We believe this should improve the value-add to customers while driving operational efficiencies at the banks themselves. Despite strong balance sheets, prudent provisioning, stable underlying trends and investments on innovation, some of these banks generally trade at a fraction of book value, making an attractive entry point for potential investors.

Long-Term Thinking During a Period of Rapid Change

In a period of great innovation, disruption and high valuations, like we are experiencing today, we need to look beyond the very near-term and consider the medium- to long-term opportunities for a business and how it is allocating capital to support those objectives. If a company is investing in a large market opportunity with attractive returns at maturity, we welcome them investing heavily today for a much larger payoff tomorrow. The investments often obfuscate the true earnings power of the business and may make it seem expensive on statistical measures, but those investments may end up creating significant value for shareholders over time.

In today’s environment, a process that relies on deep fundamental research to narrow the universe of stocks by looking for strong companies driving idea generation, and which utilizes an intrinsic value framework in an attempt to understand the likelihood of a business’ ability to create long-term value, may have an advantage. Market commentators and investors often attempt to assess valuations and opportunities simply on near-term statistical metrics, such as a P/E or a P/B multiple. These can be useful datapoints but do not paint the complete picture of whether a business is fairly valued. We believe that investors should more thoroughly analyze and determine a security’s intrinsic value before placing it into a portfolio.

The recent increase in retail participation in equity markets means more investors competing in the market, which, ultimately, should make the markets more efficient with periods of excessive price moves. However, increased market efficiency also means that simple strategies utilizing easily accessed valuation multiples or other metrics will create little to no excess returns on average. In fact, greater retail participation will mean that achieving alpha returns consistently will require a well-thought-out investment philosophy and rigorous process to add value over time.

ESG Considerations Should Be Part of Any Investment Process

ESG (environmental, social and governance) considerations provide investors with an expanded toolkit for assessing whether a business is creating value for all its stakeholders, from employees to its community to shareholders. ESG also provides insight into analyzing a business’s go-forward prospects—a lens on whether that company is competing in expanding or contracting markets due to evolving environmental or regulatory considerations. Governance is another important set of issues where poor practice can lead to substantial corporate risk such as expensive legal actions and negative publicity. These insights about where risks lie are crucial in determining what the business is worth and providing effective stewardship of the investment.

So Where Do We Go from Here

While COVID accelerated many changes around the globe, equity markets rewarded many companies that were active in preparing for their future. We believe that investors should also be active and diligent with their investment allocations going forward. Opportunities abound for those that are doing the deep fundamental research on the securities that they own, who take a long-term view, and incorporate ESG considerations so that they have an even broader understanding of the risks and opportunities that each company faces.

Miguel Oleaga is a portfolio manager and managing director at Thornburg Investment Management.

Founded in 1982, Thornburg Investment Management is a privately-owned global investment firm that offers a range of multi-strategy solutions for institutions and financial advisors around the world. A recognized leader in fixed income, equity, and alternatives investing, the firm oversees US$45 billion ($43.3 billion in assets under management and $1.8 billion in assets under advisement) as of 31 December 2020 across mutual funds, institutional accounts, separate accounts for high-net-worth investors, and UCITS funds for non-U.S. investors. Thornburg is headquartered in Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA, with additional offices in London, Hong Kong and Shanghai.

For more information, please visit www.thornburg.com

Flashpoints in the Sino-American Rivalry: Whoever Controls the Taiwan Strait Controls the Global Economy

| For Beatriz Zúñiga | 0 Comentarios

taiwan-4743542_1920 — Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. Focos de tensión en la rivalidad sino-estadounidense: quien controle el estrecho de Taiwán controlará la economía mundial

Mainly playing out across the vast Pacific Ocean, the great power rivalry between the US and China is the dominant geopolitical conflict of our time. There are deep-rooted economic, demographic, and geographic forces at work, reshaping the world’s most important bilateral relationship. A unipolar world where the global hegemon, the US, had unmatched global capacity and influence is morphing into a balanced, multipolar world where various countries have an ever-increasing impact on global decision-making and action.

At the end of World War II, the US accounted for a far larger share of global GDP than would be warranted given its population. To be sure, some of this was due to the US economy’s unrivaled level of productivity and innovation. The US will always punch above its weight because of these factors. But the main reason why the US was the overwhelmingly dominant economic engine of the world was that most major economies lay in ruins after that devastating conflict. In a famous study authored by the British economist Angus Maddison, the US’ share of global GDP reached a zenith of almost 40% in the early 1950s.

Since then, our share of global GDP has been steadily waning. To paraphrase economist Herbert Stein, that which can’t go on won’t. The other component to this relative slide has been China’s rising economic heft. For most of its history, the Mainland’s share of global GDP hovered between 30% and 35%, according to this same seminal work. In other words, China’s rise is merely a return to its normal, baseline level of economic clout. The previous century was the anomaly. China’s rise should and will continue.

So, what does this tell us about the ensuing power struggle between the two countries? Is confrontation inevitable? Can we avoid Thucydides’ famous trap? When paradigms shift, there will always be friction. With tectonic shifts, you might not always get an earthquake, but there are usually a few tremors. The 2018/19 trade dispute was but the first truly global spat between these two rivals. One can expect many more to come with Taiwan being at the vanguard of potential flashpoints. It is not an exaggeration to say that the Republic of China, the official name for the island nation just off the Mainland, is quickly becoming the most important and most-watched nation on Earth.

Taiwan dominates sophisticated global chip manufacturing, and its comparative advantage should only increase. Earlier this year, the shutdowns in American and European auto manufacturing plants had less to do with Covid-19 and more to do with chip shortages in Asia. While these bottlenecks will sort themselves out in the near-term, they are emblematic of a broader problem: semiconductors are the new oil and Taiwan is the new Saudi Arabia. Worryingly, this market is even more concentrated than the oil market is because there are fewer producers. Whoever controls Taiwan can effectively influence the world’s global supply of microchips.

This is not hyperbole. Because the cost of achieving higher logic density has increased so exponentially, it means that new microchip technology entails massive capital investments that require producers to operate with a very high utilization rate. The barriers to entry are prohibitively high. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company comprises half of the global semiconductor foundry market. Together with Taiwan’s other giant United Microelectronics Corporation and South Korea’s Samsung, the three companies account for 78% of global market share. In sum, the microprocessor market is highly and dangerously concentrated in Taiwan. From the West’s perspective, this is dangerous because China covets a reunification with Taiwan. Thanks to its actions in Hong Kong, everyone now knows what that would look like under Xi Jinping.

Every investor and policymaker worth their salt will have to account for the vulnerabilities inherent in a world should the situation across the Taiwan Strait deteriorate. An incident where chip production was disrupted or halted, or supply lines were permanently denied could be catastrophic for the global economy. If you think the US would not go to war over chip manufacturing in Taiwan, then you do not remember the US going to war in Kuwait over oil in the early 1990s. Of course, China would pack a stronger punch than Iraq ever could, and Taiwan’s importance means that all stakeholders around the world have incentives to de-escalate.

But as World War I showed us, rational actors can stumble into a conflict through a series of miscalculations after the assassination of an Archduke. Incidentally, World War I was the last time a rising, regional hegemon (Germany) confronted the entrenched global hegemon (the UK). To be sure, I am not saying that the result of this great power rivalry will be a third world war. I am also not precluding it from turning out that way either if the wrong policy mix makes us stumble in that direction. Certainly, Taiwan’s importance to the global economy means that all stakeholders, which in the extreme means all nations, are incentivized to cooperate, and maintain stability. Elementary game theory teaches how that decision-making process can go awry, and behavioral economics similarly suggests that not all decisions, even at the state-level, are rational and motivated by self-interest.

What are investors and market participants to do? Do we run to the proverbial risk bunker and wait out the coming conflict? Again, history provides a clear answer – an emphatic “no”. During the Cold War, broadly defined as 1947 till 1991, the S&P 500 rose 2,708% (7.70% annualized) despite enough missiles being pointed at each other to wipe out humanity many times over. Lest we forget, the world stood at the brink of doomsday several times during this now quickly receding era: The Berlin Airlift, the Korean War, the Soviet Invasion of Hungary, and the Cuban Missile Crisis. That was our conflict with the ideological and militant Soviets. Conflicts with the capitalist Chinese may turn out a tad less unnerving.

We must learn how to interpret the decisions and actions of these two great nations within the framework of this great power rivalry: the US wants to maintain the status quo, its place at the center of the post-WWII order, while China wants to regain its historical place and displace said order. From the American side, you will see intensifying economic pressure, and support of borderland states like Taiwan as an attempt to limit China to the first island chain. One will see the US trying to encircle the Chinese through alliances and balance of power moves allowing Japanese remilitarization and an Indian rapprochement.

For China’s part, it must ensure that it can keep delivering the economic growth that its masses have come to expect and that underpin the government’s credibility. To that end, we will see attempts to bypass the global commons, the oceans that the ubiquitous US Navy still dominates. The Chinese have reconnected with the Russians, as a unified Eurasian landmass will better counter the seagoing Americans. There will be other, yet to be determined, manifestations of this global conflict. It is important that we recognize them when they arrive. The markets will have to learn how to discount this risk premium, and, as they have done in earlier eras of shifting paradigms, they will adjust to the new reality.

WhE is Launched to Promote Women´s Empowerment within the Hispanic Community in Florida

| For Marcelo Soba | 0 Comentarios

Women Hispanic Executives Association (WhE) has announced in a press release that it has started working in Florida to promote women’s empowerment within the Hispanic community. This non-profit organization has been launched by female executives in leadership roles with a connection in South Florida.

“We are very excited to announce the launch of our association”, they pointed out in the statement, which also revealed that the founding members are credited with years of experience in different business areas and represent a wide variety of organizations.

“Proud of being women with Hispanic backgrounds, we look to WhE to be open to all genders and origins and believe in diversity as the fuel that sparks creativity and growth”, they highlighted. In this sense, their vision is to be a driving agent for change “by generating a social conscience that prioritizes professional capacities and skills” to access high responsibility positions, promoting diversity, competitiveness and sustainability of companies and institutions.

All in all, their mission is to promote the presence of Hispanic women in Boards and C-Suites. Founded by leading women in the international business community of Miami-Dade County, WhE plans to inspire Hispanic women and encourage them to “follow and fight for their dreams”.

To learn more about the founding members and what they do, you can visit their website in this link.