According to experts, there is a unique tension in the crypto market. Evidence of this is the path bitcoin has taken during the first quarter, moving from a weak start to reaching highs not seen since February, climbing to 78,400 dollars. Now, the crypto market is beginning the second quarter in a stabilization phase. Following April’s technical rebound, institutional investor flows appear to have returned, leading to a tactical improvement rather than the start of a new bull cycle.
“In the middle of the month, bitcoin rose to 78,400 dollars last week, reaching its highest level since early February, driven by improved risk appetite following progress between the United States and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs also contributed to the rally, with 664 million dollars recorded on Friday, along with a 344 million dollar short squeeze driven by the futures market, which forced the liquidation of bearish positions. From a technical standpoint, bitcoin has broken above the 76,000-dollar resistance level that had capped prices over the past two months, potentially opening the door to further gains if this momentum is sustained,” said Simon Peters, crypto asset analyst at investment and trading platform eToro.
Market entering a consolidation phase
According to Bitwise Asset Management in its quarterly report, the underlying data remains weak: the 10 largest crypto assets declined during the first quarter, with losses ranging between 23% and 38%; crypto’s correlation with equities is at its highest level since the start of COVID; and key metrics such as active addresses, transaction activity, and trading volume remain below their peaks.
This first-quarter performance contrasts with an extraordinary flow of news. “Wall Street is moving toward the onchain environment, regulators are establishing clear rules, and institutions are allocating capital. On the other hand, the underlying data is weak. This disconnect is uncomfortable. Developments are positive, but the underlying data is not. The way to resolve this tension is simple: both perspectives are looking in different directions,” said Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise AM.
Based on this data, the asset manager believes that the first quarter was indeed difficult for crypto investors. “But the news flow is forward-looking and shows there are compelling reasons to believe the underlying data will improve. In fact, if you look closely, some signs of this can already be seen. For example, assets under management in stablecoins are at record highs, tokenized real assets are gaining prominence, and stablecoin transaction activity already exceeds that of Visa,” added Hougan.
Drawing on his experience after eight years working in the crypto world, he described the current moment as “the end phase of bear markets.” “Prices are low and fundamental data is weak, but the smartest people are beginning to build again. There is something underneath that is starting to generate excitement and, if you look closely enough, you can already make out the first outlines of a new bull market,” Hougan concluded.
