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Trump’s Tariff Game: Beware of Missteps and Noise

Aranceles de Trump y su impacto económico — Pixabay CC0 Public Domain

One of the key recommendations made by international asset managers at the beginning of the year was the need to filter out the noise surrounding Donald Trump‘s approach to policymaking. The trade war launched by his administration, which has put the word “tariff” in most headlines since yesterday, is a clear example of why investment firms gave that advice.

If we look at the latest developments, China has imposed tariffs on U.S. products set to take effect on February 10. Specifically, it has announced a 15% tariff on coal and liquefied gas and a 10% tariff on oil, agricultural machinery, high-displacement cars, and pickup trucks. Canada’s response was similar, with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announcing 25% tariffs on U.S. products. Meanwhile, after a “friendly” phone call with Claudia Sheinbaum, president of Mexico, Trump has decided to pause the 25% tariffs on the country for a month in exchange for a series of commitments on border and trade security.

Time to Negotiate?

According to experts, this first move in the trade war by all parties confirms what many had anticipated: tariffs will be used as a bargaining tool. “As we predicted, Trump is starting his term by using trade policy decisions as a shock weapon within a broader framework of future negotiations, allowing him to partially rebalance trade with some economies. We already saw this tactic during the NAFTA renegotiation when Trump’s threats to withdraw from the trade alliance successfully pressured for a new agreement,” state analysts at Banca March.

Experts at the firm believe that China, having already experienced a trade war, is less inclined to give in to such pressure. Trump is now expected to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping in the coming days, raising hopes that both leaders may reach an agreement to avoid a new trade war.

For Damian McIntyre, Head of Multi-Asset Solutions at Federated Hermes, these announcements signal to the world that Trump is willing and able to use tariffs as a tool. “While this could ultimately be a negotiation tactic, it has the potential to reshape global investment narratives, including the need for higher risk premiums for countries he perceives as unfair players. Whether it’s tariffs and geopolitical tensions or AI and profits, investors face many risks in today’s market. We believe that investing in a globally diversified range of assets is one way for investors to maintain strong and resilient portfolios,” says McIntyre.

In this context, asset managers are focusing on the imbalances in public accounts and their impact on national economies. “Contrary to what Trump’s rhetoric suggests, it is not the exporting countries that pay the tariffs. U.S. importing companies pay these tariffs to the Treasury. Mechanically, the first impact will be on U.S. companies. For the end consumer, an increase in customs duties has a macroeconomic effect similar to that of a tax hike. It has a temporary impact on inflation and a downward effect on demand, which tends to push prices lower. The main risk, therefore, is a demand-driven growth shock rather than an inflation shock,” explains Enguerrand Artaz, analyst at La Financière de l’Échiquier.

“Trump knows that an open trade war would mean higher inflation for the average U.S. citizen, something he will likely want to avoid in the end. Meanwhile, we must get used to a more volatile 2025 than the previous year, where risk assets, particularly fixed income, will continue to offer attractive entry opportunities,” say analysts at Banca March.

Market Reactions

The first two days following these announcements have also provided insight into how markets are digesting the possibility of a new trade war. According to Robeco, the swift execution of Trump’s tariff threats surprised markets, causing volatility in equities, while safe-haven assets like gold and the dollar surged. “After Trump abruptly withdrew his threat of general tariffs on Colombia earlier last week following a migrant deportation deal, the market was convinced that Trump’s bite would be softer than his bark,” says Peter van der Welle, Strategist for Sustainable Multi-Asset Solutions at Robeco.

Van der Welle believes that the latest tariff announcements on Canada and Mexico show that Trump’s bite is primarily tied to his willingness to seal a border security deal and achieve his political goal of restricting migration. “With markets now forced to guess Trump’s next trade policy moves, U.S. trade policy uncertainty has reached its highest level in 40 years, except for the summer of 2019, when the U.S.-China trade war was at its peak. We expect market volatility to remain high in the short term, reflecting a significant risk of another major trade announcement targeting China, Europe, and/or Japan,” he notes.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Michael Medeiros, macroeconomic strategist at Wellington Management, believes that the most important factor for investors to consider in this situation is the increased likelihood of higher inflation volatility, a lower probability of supply-side improvements in the economy, and the significant link between tariff revenues and tax cuts through budget reconciliation. “These tariffs represent Trump delivering on his campaign promises. He is doing what he said he would do, and that is another key factor to keep in mind,” says Medeiros.

Economists at BofA agree that using tariffs as a bargaining tool has increased trade policy uncertainty and expect this trend to continue. “For markets, we see three key takeaways: the U.S. administration is transactional—nothing is final until it’s signed; U.S. economic policy threats should be taken seriously and literally; and the U.S. ‘bailout’ policy may be further from financial relief than the market expects. Investors have suggested that the stock market serves as the U.S. administration’s performance marker and that any policy shift affecting risk assets will be quickly reversed. We advise caution,” they state in their latest report.

The Fed Will Subject 22 Banking Institutions to Its Stress Test in 2025

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Image Developed Using AI

On Wednesday, the Fed published the hypothetical scenarios for its annual stress test, in which 22 banks will be tested against a severe global recession, increased strain in commercial and residential real estate markets, and corporate debt market stress, according to a statement.

While the scenarios are not forecasts and should not be interpreted as predictions of future economic conditions, the test incorporates various macroeconomic data points.

For example, the test assumes that the U.S. unemployment rate rises by nearly 5.9 percentage points, reaching a peak of 10%. This increase in unemployment is accompanied by high market volatility, widening corporate bond spreads, and a sharp decline in asset prices, including an approximate 33% drop in home prices and a 30% decline in commercial real estate prices, according to the Fed‘s statement.

Additionally, “large banks with significant trading or custody operations are also required to incorporate a counterparty default scenario component to estimate potential losses from the unexpected default of the firm’s largest counterparty amid a severe market disruption.” Meanwhile, banks with major trading operations will undergo a test featuring a global market shock component, primarily affecting their trading positions and related activities.

The following table outlines the components of the annual stress test applied to each bank, based on data from the third quarter of 2024:

This year’s exploratory analysis includes two separate hypothetical elements designed to evaluate the banking system’s resilience to a broader range of risks. One element examines how banks would respond to credit and liquidity disruptions in the non-bank financial institution sector during a severe global recession.

The second component of the exploratory analysis involves a market shock scenario that will apply only to the largest and most complex banks. This scenario hypothesizes the failure of five major hedge funds, combined with a decline in global economic activity and rising inflation.

Unlike the stress test, the exploratory analysis is designed to assess additional hypothetical risks to the banking system as a whole, rather than focusing on the specific outcomes for each individual bank. The Fed will publish aggregated results from the exploratory analysis alongside the annual stress test results in June 2025.

The Fed plans to take steps soon to reduce the volatility of stress test results and begin improving the transparency of the models used in the 2025 tests. Additionally, the Fed intends to initiate a public comment process this year regarding its comprehensive changes to the stress testing framework.

The annual stress test evaluates the resilience of large banks by estimating their losses, net income, and capital levels—which serve as a buffer against losses—under hypothetical recession scenarios that extend two years into the future.

Interest in ESG Criteria Declines but Remains Strong Among Retail Investors

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ESG y preferencias de inversión — Pixabay CC0 Public Domain

Interest in investment products with ESG criteria has stagnated over the past two years, even among younger investors, who have historically been the most enthusiastic about these strategies. However, there is still a significant opportunity for advisory services related to broader ESG investment principles, according to the Cerulli Edge – The Americas Asset and Wealth Management report.

Preference for ESG investing declined slightly in 2023, falling from 48% to 46%, amid increasing political and financial scrutiny. However, investors under 40 remain the most passionate about ESG-related issues, with 66% still preferring conscious investment in this category—down from 72% the previous year—marking a second consecutive year of declining interest. Meanwhile, households over 50 maintain a 44% support rate, with 13% expressing strong support.

However, “there is still a great opportunity for advisory services, particularly among Millennials, who are becoming wealthier and more likely to seek formal financial advice than in previous years,” adds the international consultancy firm.

The Cerulli study reveals that 49% of investors still prefer not to invest in companies that manufacture products they consider “objectionable.” This includes 42% of self-directed investors, who likely research these companies before making investment decisions.

While the desire to avoid questionable companies is strongest among those with less than $250,000 in investable assets (54%), it remains relatively popular across all asset levels. Investors with between $1 million and $2 million in investable assets are the least likely (46%) to actively hold this preference.

Meanwhile, 67% of investors say they prefer to invest in companies that pay their workers a fair or living wage.

“There remains a significant population of investors who value ESG criteria, particularly those focused on environmental issues and fair wages, even if they wouldn’t otherwise identify as ESG investors,” said Scott Smith, director at Cerulli. “This creates an opportunity for both advisors and providers to help interested clients find investments aligned with these values, offering a more personalized portfolio solution while also deepening their understanding of clients beyond a purely transactional relationship,” he concluded.

Will Florida’s Real Estate Market Become a Buyer’s Market?

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Mercado inmobiliario en Florida — Image Developed Using AI

High mortgage rates and property insurance costs, combined with economic uncertainty in an election year, tighter financial conditions, and extreme weather events, caused Florida’s Real Estate market to slow down last year.

But will it turn into a buyer-friendly market?

The answer could be yes, especially in certain local areas, according to Dr. Brad O’Connor, chief economist at Florida Realtors®, who addressed an audience of real estate agents at the 2025 Florida Real Estate Trends Summit last week.

“If we follow the general rule that a balanced market has between five and six months of inventory, single-family homes ended 2024 just within seller’s market territory, with 4.7 months of inventory, while condos and townhomes are already firmly in buyer’s market territory, with 8.2 months of inventory,” explained O’Connor.

The year-over-year growth in single-family home inventory was fairly consistent across the state, with most counties recording increases between 25% and 35%. Regarding condos and townhomes, active listings grew statewide by the end of 2024, although some areas experienced a greater increase than others.

“In 2024, several challenges weakened housing demand in Florida, including persistently high mortgage rates and property insurance costs,” noted O’Connor.

Florida’s real estate market was also impacted by multiple hurricanes throughout the year, from Hurricane Debby to the nearly consecutive devastation caused by Hurricanes Helene and Milton.

Additionally, other factors that affected the state’s housing market in 2024 included the fact that internal migration remains above the long-term trend but is slowing down. Job growth across the state has slowed but remains solid. Demand from international buyers has remained moderate. There are also issues affecting the condo market, particularly reserve requirements and insurability.

The sharpest declines occurred in coastal counties along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, while the only positive point was in the I-4 corridor, in the suburban areas between Tampa and Orlando, as well as further north in The Villages and Ocala, where condo and townhome sales grew in 2024 compared to 2023.

With the growth of new listings and the decline in sales, inventory levels in both categories—single-family homes and condos/townhomes—ended the year slightly above typical pre-pandemic levels (2014-2019).

Looking ahead to 2025, interest rates will continue to determine much of the market’s behavior, though the challenges of 2024 will remain key factors for Florida’s real estate sector in the coming months, summarized O’Connor.

Florida Realtors® represents the real estate industry in Florida, offering programs, services, continuing education, research, and legislative advocacy to 238,000 members across 50 associations, according to the organization.

Movements continue at Bernstein Private Wealth with the promotion of Joaquín Dulitzky

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The wealth management firm Bernstein continues to make changes to its team: adding to the recent appointments is the promotion of Joaquín Dulitzky in Miami.

“Joaquín Dulitzky has been promoted to Principal at Bernstein Private Wealth Management. This well-deserved designation recognizes Joaquín’s exceptional client service, acquisition, and business leadership skills, as well as his invaluable contributions to our company’s culture,” posted Ben Moscowicz, Managing Director of the firm in Miami, on LinkedIn.

The financial advisor, with more than 20 years of experience, joined the company in February 2020.

Specializing in Latin American and U.S. clients, he contributes to the Global Families, Entrepreneurs & Exit Planning, Global Executives, Impact Investors & Philanthropy, and World-Class Athletes & Coaches segments.

Among the firms Dulitzky has worked for are Biscayne Americas Advisers and Merrill Lynch

World Leaders Call for Action on AI and Regional Reforms

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The 2025 Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum took place this week, with world leaders emphasizing regional reforms and the application of artificial intelligence. The event was not immune to the words and actions of Donald Trump. In fact, several sessions included discussions and reflections on the potential economic effects of the new U.S. administration.

For example, during Tuesday’s session, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen responded to growing threats of tariff policies and anti-climate measures from the U.S. president. According to Banca March analysts, Von der Leyen reaffirmed the European Union’s commitment to remaining an open bloc willing to cooperate with international partners, advocating for an open approach in contrast to U.S. protectionism.

“She described the bloc’s strategy, which will be based on negotiation, while also stressing the importance of defending the EU’s principles, interests, and values,” they noted.

Banca March also highlighted that several international financial executives spoke during the sessions, pointing out a competitive advantage for U.S. banks due to their more lenient regulations. The CEO of Italian bank UniCredit stated that American banks are the real competitors. JP Morgan noted that Trump has created a very pro-business environment. The Vice President of BlackRock argued that Europe needs a wake-up call on regulation. In contrast, the CEO of UBS took the opposite stance, opposing widespread deregulation for large banks.

Regarding other industries, the CEO of pharmaceutical company Novartis downplayed concerns about Trump’s stance on vaccines and other health policies, calling such worries “exaggerated.”

Environmental Commitments

One of the most significant announcements was the creation of the world’s largest tropical forest reserve, the Kivu-to-Kinshasa Green Corridor Reserve, which will protect over 550,000 square kilometers of forest across the Congo River Basin.

“This historic and unprecedented initiative will not only transform our natural landscapes but also improve the livelihoods of millions of our citizens,” said Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) President Félix-Antoine Tshisekedi Tshilombo. He added that the project goes beyond environmental preservation, incorporating economic development as well.

Meanwhile, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim expressed optimism about ASEAN’s future and Malaysia’s role in it.

“The spirit of collaboration and solidarity among ASEAN leaders is unique,” he said, highlighting the regional integration in green energy that has contributed to Malaysia’s rise as a high-tech manufacturing hub.

He emphasized that while the U.S. remains Malaysia’s largest individual investor, its economic ties with China are expanding.

“We don’t go to war or make threats; we discuss, we get a little angry, but we focus on economic fundamentals and move forward,” Anwar stated.

AI and Technology

UN Secretary-General António Guterres issued a strong warning about two growing global threats: the unchecked expansion of artificial intelligence and the climate crisis. He described these issues as unprecedented risks for humanity, requiring immediate and unified action from governments and the private sector.

On AI, Guterres acknowledged its immense potential but cautioned against leaving it unregulated. He emphasized the need for international collaboration, referencing the UN’s Global Digital Compact as a framework for responsible digital technology use.

“We must work together to ensure that all countries and people benefit from AI’s promise and potential to support social and economic progress,” he said.

He also urged the private sector not to backtrack on climate commitments and called on governments to deliver on their promise to introduce new, economy-wide national climate action plans this year.

Meanwhile, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called for a reform of social media governance across the EU to combat disinformation and cyberbullying.

He urged for stronger enforcement of the Digital Services Act and the expansion of the European Centre for Algorithmic Transparency’s powers.

“The values of the European Union are not for sale,” he emphasized, calling for increased funding to research social media algorithms and ensure that Europe’s brightest minds address this critical challenge.

Geopolitics and International Relations

The Davos meeting coincided with the implementation of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

Palestinian Authority Foreign Minister Varsen Aghabekian expressed cautious optimism, stating:

“Optimism is not an option; it is a necessity.”

She added that she hopes the ceasefire will lead to a more sustainable peace. Addressing the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, she stressed the need for immediate aid and long-term planning.

“We must ensure that aid reaches the people,” she insisted.

Meanwhile, weeks after the sudden collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Hasan AlShaibani outlined the new government’s plans.

“We will not look to the past. We will look to the future. And we promise our people that this misery will not happen again,” he declared.

He pledged to respect women’s rights, reject sectarian divisions, and called for the removal of remaining sanctions.

“Thousands are returning to Syria and need to help rebuild the country. We are turning a new page… Syria must be a nation of peace.”

In a discussion with CNN’s Fareed Zakaria, Iranian Vice President for Strategic Affairs Javad Zarif expressed hope that a second Trump presidency would reconsider its withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal, which Trump abandoned in 2018.

He suggested that a new Trump administration might take a more serious, focused, and realistic approach regarding the cost of withdrawing from the agreement.

“In terms of deterring Iran, [the withdrawal from the JCPOA] has failed. It has imposed significant economic costs on the Iranian people. Of course, the Iranian government is suffering, but the Iranian people—especially the most vulnerable—are suffering the most,” Zarif stated.

Private Equity Deals in the Healthcare Sector Reached $115 Billion in 2024

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This surge was driven by an increase in the number of large-scale transactions. In total, five deals exceeded $5 billion, compared to two in 2023 and one in 2022. North America remains the largest market, accounting for 65% of global deal value, while Europe and Asia-Pacific represent 22% and 12%, respectively. Deal volumes remained stable relative to historical levels, with a wave of activity in North America and Europe offsetting a 49% decline in deal volume in Asia-Pacific since 2023. These are some of the key findings from Bain & Company’s Global Healthcare Private Equity Report 2025.

For Cira Cuberes, partner at Bain & Company, the private equity market in the healthcare sector made a strong comeback last year, largely due to an influx of large-scale transactions, particularly in the biopharmaceutical space. “We also observed a resurgence of deals in the health technology sector. Looking ahead to 2025, we expect LPs to continue backing mid-market fund managers due to their strong returns and sector expertise. The smartest strategy for investors will be to focus on opportunities arising from spin-offs and incorporate value creation principles into their due diligence,” she commented.

In Europe, deal volume surpassed the peak reached in 2021, driven by a concentration of smaller deals in the first half of the year. The biopharmaceutical and medical technology sectors were two of the key drivers in 2024, as companies acquiring assets in these industries can easily expand them across the regions in which they operate. Bain remains optimistic about the European market, citing strong acquisition volume growth and a stabilizing macroeconomic environment. The firm anticipates continued momentum in deal activity and sees potential for more mega-deals.

The biopharmaceutical sector continues to lead healthcare deals in terms of total value, thanks to several major transactions in 2024. Despite the record deal value in biopharmaceutical buyouts, global deal volume in the biopharmaceutical tools and life sciences sectors declined by 5% and 10%, respectively, since 2020 in terms of compound annual growth rate (CAGR). Several factors contribute to this trend, including the struggle between buyers and sellers to align sale prices and a reduction in pharmaceutical services spending following a sharp decline in U.S. biopharmaceutical private equity funding.

Healthcare IT Dealmaking Rebounded in 2024

Several factors contributed to the resurgence in healthcare IT deals. First, providers—facing financial pressures and changes in reimbursement models—are investing in core systems to boost efficiency. In response, private equity firms are increasingly investing in assets that support workflow improvements. Additionally, payers—seeking to enhance payment integrity—are investing in advanced analytics. At the same time, biopharmaceutical companies are modernizing clinical trial IT infrastructure to accelerate and improve drug development in an environment of tighter funding and stricter regulatory requirements.

Four Trends Reshaping the Healthcare Private Equity Landscape

Mid-market funds continue to innovate: Historically, healthcare-focused mid-market funds have outperformed the broader market, benefiting from ongoing innovation and evolving investment strategies. They have also managed to sustain both asset acquisition and exits since 2020, even as the broader healthcare buyout market struggled. This strong performance has led to robust fundraising. Since 2022, mid-market funds with healthcare exposure have raised approximately $59 billion, exceeding fundraising levels from the previous three years by about 40%. While they have traditionally focused more on provider assets, mid-market private equity firms have expanded their scope to include healthcare IT and provider services while maintaining a strong presence in biopharma and medical technology.

Spin-offs unlock value in a competitive market: Despite year-to-year variability in deal activity, healthcare spin-offs have followed an upward trajectory since 2010, driven by a combination of public companies aiming to enhance shareholder value and private equity firms eager to acquire high-value assets. Successful spin-offs allow public companies to improve margins, focus on revenue growth, and reduce leverage and complexity. They also create opportunities for private equity firms to acquire overlooked assets with significant value-creation potential under new ownership. Given the reduced level of sponsor-to-sponsor deals since the 2022 peak, the combination of spin-offs and corporate deals has attracted a diverse range of investors looking to deploy capital into scalable healthcare assets with strong value-creation potential.

Maximizing exit value is a strategic imperative: Private equity exit deal volume in healthcare remained low in 2024—41% below its 2021 peak—as high interest rates and valuation mismatches between buyers and sellers extended holding periods and limited funds’ ability to return capital to their LPs. Historically, multiple expansion has driven nearly half of total deal returns, but this lever is unlikely to sustain returns to the same extent in the coming years. To execute a successful exit strategy, sellers must take an objective view of asset performance and trajectory while having a plan for future value creation. Buyers who integrate value-creation principles into their pre-acquisition diligence gain a competitive advantage.

Asia-Pacific investment has evolved: Private equity firms are expanding their investments beyond China in the Asia-Pacific region, where deal value has grown at an approximate 21% CAGR since 2016. However, deal volume in the region has declined significantly since 2023 due to a slowdown in Chinese transactions, a shift in deal volume to India, Japan, and South Korea, and increased competition from strategic players eager to pursue M&A. India, in particular, is emerging as a compelling alternative to China for dealmaking, given its expanding middle class—driving healthcare demand—and strong economic growth. Japan and South Korea are also seeing accelerated deal volume, fueled by favorable macroeconomic factors and an aging population with increasing healthcare needs.

“We are optimistic about the outlook for private equity in the healthcare sector in 2025, especially as deal multiples begin to stabilize, enabling better alignment between supply and demand, and as a growing base of tradable assets presents new opportunities. Lower interest rates in the U.S. and stable economic growth in regions like Japan and India indicate favorable investment conditions. Looking ahead, the accumulation of assets in private equity portfolios, along with increasing LP pressure for liquidity, suggests an imminent rise in sponsor exits,” concludes Cira Cuberes, partner at Bain & Company.

UNTITLED Has a New Partner: Enrica Casagrande

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The law firm of Martín Litwak, UNTITLED, welcomed a new partner this January: Enrica Casagrande, who has been part of the firm’s team since its early days.

“Enrica was one of the first to join our firm in 2014, when we were a small team in Montevideo. Her strategic vision, leadership, and commitment were key to her growth alongside us. Since then, she has progressed from Managing Associate to Director of Trustees, and now, to Partner,” the firm announced in a statement.

Casagrande is a lawyer specialized in wealth structuring, international taxation, and fiduciary services. She holds a doctorate in law and social sciences from the University of the Republic of Uruguay.

Argentina’s VALO Absorbs Columbus and Strengthens its Financial Services Offering

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A recent CNV resolution authorized the merger of two players in the Argentine financial world: VALO, a firm specialized in investment fund custody and financial trusts, absorbs Columbus, a company with extensive experience in investment banking and capital markets.

“VALO has 24% of the investment fund custody business, is the leading trustee in the sector, and as a result of the merger, it is also a leader in the investment banking segment, both in mergers and acquisitions operations and in valuations and restructurings,” they announced in a statement.

Additionally, the firm is positioning itself in corporate banking with a service line designed to provide comprehensive support to companies seeking to enhance their growth.

“This strategic union not only expands the reach of our services but also strengthens and consolidates VALO as a key player in a constantly evolving financial system. We are going to take on a leading role in what’s to come in the market: in structuring debt issuances for both the private and public sectors, as well as in equity and stock placements. We have the people, the experience, and the clients to fill that role,” said Juan Nápoli, president of VALO.

The entities, which are already operating as a united and integrated company, offer comprehensive financial services for corporate and institutional clients. Current clients of both entities will now have access to a broader and more specialized portfolio of services, while new interested parties will find a fresh value proposition.

“The synergy we have achieved is revolutionary for the sector. With this merger, VALO becomes the most professional 100% corporate bank with the most comprehensive product offering in the Argentine market. Together, we can innovate faster, provide excellent service, and offer the most suitable business solutions for our clients. This merger not only strengthens our market position but also allows us to offer more efficient services with a highly specialized team in complex transactions,” explained Norberto Mathys, vice president and CEO of VALO, and Koni Strazzolini, former Columbus partner and newly appointed board member of VALO.

VALO (Banco de Valores S.A.) was founded in 1978 by the Mercado de Valores (MERVAL) and operates as a financial trustee and custodian of mutual funds. Following the merger by absorption of Columbus, it is now the only wholesale bank in the country offering a comprehensive proposal for corporate and institutional clients. Additionally, since 2020, VALO has been pursuing a solid growth strategy at the regional and global levels and currently has a presence in Uruguay, the United States, and Paraguay.

One in Five Pension Funds Lacks Liquidity in Adverse Scenarios

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Over the past decade, pension funds have increased their investments in private assets to enhance returns through the illiquidity premium. However, they are now reconsidering the potential liquidity risks associated with this strategy. According to a new global survey conducted by Ortec Finance, a specialist provider of risk and return management solutions for pension funds, nearly 18% of pension funds report not having enough liquidity to withstand adverse scenarios.

The study, conducted in the United Kingdom, the United States, the Netherlands, Canada, and the Nordic countries, surveyed senior executives from pension funds managing a total of $1.451 trillion in assets. It found that, in addition to the 18% reporting insufficient liquidity, another 62% believe they have enough liquidity for most scenarios but acknowledge that extreme situations could pose challenges. In contrast, only 20% say they have no liquidity concerns.

Fund managers identify both short- and long-term risks, with long-term liquidity risk being the primary concern among respondents. About 60% cite this as the main risk facing the funds they manage, while 25% consider short-term liquidity risk to be the most significant. Only 15% believe that short- and long-term risks are roughly equal.

The increase in exposure to private assets is part of the reason behind liquidity concerns, particularly among defined benefit (DB) pension schemes. Among the managers surveyed, 80% reported that unfunded commitment risk represents either a significant or moderate threat to the DB pension industry over the next three years. Overall, 25% of managers believe that unfunded commitments beyond the control of pension portfolio managers pose a significant risk, while 19% do not consider it a risk.

Despite these liquidity concerns, 58% of respondents state that liquidity is already well managed, and 28% believe other risks are more pressing. Meanwhile, 10% consider liquidity risk a priority, while 4% say it is not a major concern.

“Our study highlights the liquidity challenges facing pension funds, particularly given the unpredictability of projecting unfunded commitments and capital calls. To address this issue comprehens

Pension Funds Increase Private Asset Exposure but Face Growing Liquidity Concerns

The study, conducted in the United Kingdom, the United States, the Netherlands, Canada, and the Nordic countries, surveyed senior executives from pension funds managing a total of $1.451 trillion in assets. It found that, in addition to the 18% reporting insufficient liquidity, another 62% believe they have enough liquidity for most scenarios but acknowledge that extreme situations could pose challenges. In contrast, only 20% say they have no liquidity concerns.

The increase in exposure to private assets is part of the reason behind liquidity concerns, particularly among defined benefit (DB) pension schemes. Among the managers surveyed, 80% reported that unfunded commitment risk represents either a significant or moderate threat to the DB pension industry over the next three years. Overall, 25% of managers believe that unfunded commitments beyond the control of pension portfolio managers pose a significant risk, while 19% do not consider it a risk.

“Our study highlights the liquidity challenges facing pension funds, particularly given the unpredictability of projecting unfunded commitments and capital calls. To address this issue comprehensively, funds should focus on scenario modeling and stress testing. Modeling capital calls and private asset distributions can help funds understand their potential liquidity constraints in worst-case scenarios over the next five, ten, or twenty years,” says Marnix Engels, Managing Director of Global Pension Risk at Ortec Finance.