Despite the radical change in U.S. trade policy under the presidency of Donald Trump, Mexico remains the main supplier to the world’s largest power and its trading partner within the USMCA.
In June, imports of goods from Mexico totaled 44.8 billion dollars, after a figure of 46.3 billion was reported in the previous month, representing 16.9% of total imports of the world’s largest economy, according to the Economic Report prepared by the Economic Studies Department of Banamex.
For its part, the share of U.S. imports from Canada totaled 11.2%, followed by China with 7.1%. The latter figure is the lowest since February 2001.
Cumulatively, during the first half of the current year, imports from Mexico to the United States amounted to 264.4 billion dollars, a figure 6.3% higher than that recorded in the same period of 2024.
As a result, Mexico’s share of U.S. imports averaged 15.0% in the first half of the year, equivalent to 0.9 percentage points below the share recorded in January–June 2024, while for China and Canada this share was 9.5% and 11.2% respectively, that is 3.2 points and 1.9 points lower than in 2024, respectively.
According to the Banamex report, considering the 12-month moving average of the share in total imports, the increases in March for Switzerland (gold) and Ireland (pharmaceuticals) have dissipated, while Vietnam and Taiwan continue to gain share at the expense of China and Canada, as Mexico has reversed the downward trend it had shown in recent months, thanks in large part to the benefits granted by the USMCA for tariff-free imports.
China, the Most Affected Country
The same report indicates that China is the most affected country by the tariffs. The monthly drop of 4.6% in total U.S. imports of goods in June, after declines of 19.9% in April and 0.1% in May, already includes the entry into force of practically all the tariffs announced by the Trump administration.
Thus, the average tariff actually paid during June was 8.9%, 0.1 points more than in May, or 6.6 points higher than before the imposition of customs duties. In contrast, for Mexico, the effective tariff paid was 4.0%, slightly lower than the 4.3% of the previous month. Meanwhile, China posted an average tariff of 37.4% in June, lower than the 45.6% in May but 26.4 points higher than the 10.9% prior to the tariffs.
Thus, Mexico sold 82.2% of its exports to the United States tariff-free during June. This represents approximately 6.0 points less than before the imposition of tariffs, but it undoubtedly remains by a wide margin the main supplier to this country.
