Germany’s Oktoberfest is famous the world over for its traditional costumes and, most of all, its one-litre “Maß” mugs of beer. But have you thought about what beer can teach you about the world of finance and economics?
Hans-Jörg Naumer, Head of Global Capital Market Analysis and Thematic Research at Allianz Global Investors and his team prepared an infographic that compares the number of Okoberfest Maß that EUR 10 buys versus what that same money will have become if invested in German equities back in 1960. The result, Pint-sized economics!
“As our research shows, the equivalent of EUR 10 in 1960 would have been more than enough to buy an entire round for you and nine friends. But thanks to inflation, the price of a Maß has gone from 95 cents in 1960 to EUR 10.50 today – not even enough for one drink. Yet if you had skipped your drinks in 1960 and invested EUR 10 in German equities, you would now have EUR 395. That would buy you an inflation-busting 37 Maß at Oktoberfest. Prost!” Concludes Naumer.
Foto: enki22
. Las firmas de real estate tienen perspectivas positivas, a pesar de la caída del volumen de ventas
La gran mayoría de las empresas de real estate tienen perspectivas optimistas para el futuro en lo que a rentabilidad y crecimiento de la industria se refiere, de acuerdo con el 2016 Profile of Real Estate Firms elaborado por la Asociación Nacional de Realtors (NAR), de Estados Unidos. Las expectativas de rentabilidad han bajado con respecto al año pasado, debido principalmente a la escasez de inventario y al aumento de los precios de las viviendas, pero los operadores de esta industria siguen confiando en su rentabilidad global a futuro.
«Por segundo año consecutivo, la mayoría de las empresas de real estate tienen previsiones positivas con respecto a su rentabilidad: hay un 91% de ellas que espera que sus ingresos netos aumenten o no varíen con respecto a 2016 el próximo año», declara Tom Salomone, presidente de NAR y propietario del broker inmobiliario Real Estate II, en Coral Springs, Florida. «A pesar de lo positivo de las perspectivas, el bajo inventario y los altos precios han conducido a una disminución global del volumen de ventas de la firmas en los últimos 12 meses. Los altos precios frenan a los compradores de primera vivienda, y el bajo inventario implica un menor número de ventas en un momento en que hay mas agentes inmobiliarios».
En 2016, el 64% de las empresas espera que la rentabilidad (ingresos netos) de todas las actividades de real estate aumenten en el próximo año, frente al 68% que lo hacía el año pasado. El 67% de las firmas del sector comercial y el 70% de las grandes enseñas -las que tienen cuatro oficinas o mas- esperan que la rentabilidad mejore, frente al 75% de 2015 y el 65% de las del sector residencial.
El 43% de las empresas espera que aumente la competencia el próximo año por parte de firmas no tradicionales, bajando desde el 45% de 2015. El 46% espera que crezca la competencia por parte de empresas virtuales (creciendo desde el 41% de 2015), mientras que sólo el 17% espera que la mayor competencia venga de empresas tradicionales.
El sentimiento de competencia ha alimentado el incremento de contrataciones desde la encuesta de 2015. 47% de las empresas –frente a 44% el año pasado- han declarado estar reclutando activamente agentes de ventas, siendo más frecuente en las empresas residenciales (51%) que en las comerciales (32%); y entre las firmas con cuatro oficinas o más (88%) que en las que solo tienen una oficina (39%).
Cuando se les preguntó por los mayores desafíos para los próximos dos años, las empresas citaron la rentabilidad (49%), mantenerse al día con la tecnología (48%), el mantenimiento de suficiente inventario (48%) y el reclutamiento de agentes más jóvenes (36%).
The debate points to a lurking problem for the markets
The level of discourse was so disappointing in last week’s U.S. presidential debate that it was tempting to move up the dial and watch pro football, where the combatants at least get to wear helmets. Personal attacks, rancorous exchanges, smirks and eye rolling…they epitomized why many voters have despaired over the choice they face.
What all this focus on personality obscures, of course, is the actual issues the country faces and the philosophical differences that could seriously impact how to solve them—whether low growth, suffocating regulation, federal debt, health care, income inequality or national security, to name a few.
Not all the issues have concrete implications for investors at this stage. In recent weeks, my CIO colleagues and I have taken turns considering potential drivers for the economy and markets. Erik Knutzen, CIO for Multi-Asset Class, talked about a global focus in U.S. earnings and whether weakness could contribute to new volatility in a market that is “priced to perfection”; Fixed Income CIO Brad Tank considered the potential impacts of Japan’s steps toward “helicopter money”; and I explored whether the two major U.S. political parties could work to improve the country’s dilapidated infrastructure.
Rating the Election’s Impact
As far as the election is concerned, it’s hard to tell what the impact will be. Over the last eight presidential election cycles, inauguration years have seen exceptionally strong returns for the S&P 500, with an average gain of nearly 20% and in several cases returns of over 30%. Only in 2001, in the wake of the tech bubble, did the year turn out to be negative. In part, this positive trend may be a function of stimulus leading up to elections, or reduced policy uncertainty, or simply a touch of optimism tied to the fresh start of a four-year term. It may be a simplistic idea, but elections ultimately have tended to be a catalyst for stocks.
Could this time be different? A key concern is negative voter perception of both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, who have the highest unfavorable ratings of any presidential candidates in modern history.1 Regardless of who gets elected, residual anger on the part of the losing party could intensify already entrenched gridlock.
This ties into prospects for fiscal stimulus, ideally in the form of new infrastructure spending, or a deal to repatriate corporations’ overseas earnings. We remain skeptical on that front, and we believe that politicians could keep relying on easy money from the Federal Reserve to bail them out along with the economy. With minimal action in Washington, it seems likely that GDP could continue stumbling along at a 1%-2% pace in the coming year.
Softening Angle on Equities
Such meager growth of course provides little fuel for the stock market. Our Asset Allocation Committee recently downgraded its 12-month outlook for U.S. equities to “slightly underweight,” given rich valuations, a modestly higher rate forecast and potential volatility tied to earnings stagnation.
It would be tempting to minimize the potential impact of the presidential race, to “change the channel” and focus strictly on fundamentals that undoubtedly can sway the markets. But there’s a point where electoral combat and likely gridlock weigh on earnings prospects and growth trends. My “Hail Mary pass” would be that this contest will shake things up enough that politicians will work together, at least for a while, to deal with entrenched problems.
Hermes Investment Management has recently published its second and final paper from its annual Responsible Capitalism survey.
The annual survey of over 100 leading UK and European institutional investors found that the number of those who believe that the gender diversity of the senior management of an investee company is vitally important or important had more than doubled in 12 months. In 2015, only a quarter of investors placed importance on gender diversity, whereas in 2016, a total of 51% of investors agreed.
Harriet Steel, Head of Business Development, Hermes Investment Management, said: “To see the number on investors who place importance of gender diversity leap up by more than double is extremely encouraging and reflective of the high profile campaigns and initiatives introduced to increase gender parity. In our research we believe that the issue for investors appears to be risk, rather than high returns. Investors are growing increasingly aware of the link between ‘group think’ and poor corporate practice. Boards with more diverse composition tend to challenge senior management, be more innovative and make better decisions. These are febrile times and investors increasingly recognise that certain sorts of risk can fundamentally undermine the performance of their portfolios over time. Worse still, they may be accused of failing in their fiduciary duty.”
The Responsible Capitalism survey also showed that despite the gains made in gender, other characteristics of diversity lag behind in investors’ importance; such as race (30%), socio-economic (19%) and educational background (30%). As stated in the ‘Commonsense Principles of Corporate Governance’, recently endorsed by Warren Buffet and others: “Directors should have complementary and diverse skill sets, backgrounds and experiences. Diversity along multiple dimensions is critical to a high-functioning board. Director candidates should be drawn from a rigorously diverse pool.”
Steel continued: “In the Responsible Capitalism survey it was particularly encouraging to see that only a tiny proportion of investors now consider diversity of board experience (2.1%) and a Chairman independent of CEO (1%) to be ‘not important at all’. Given ongoing shareholder concerns over shared CEO/Chair roles at companies such as JP Morgan, corporate diversity is no longer being considered a ‘nice to have’, but a necessary part of responsible governance.
“Significant political and economic upheaval has prompted governments to look in increasingly greater depth at corporate governance practice. New UK Prime Minister Theresa May immediately took aim at non-executive board members ‘drawn from the same narrow social and professional circles as the executive team’, accusing them of providing insufficient scrutiny. Nineteen nations in the European Union now mandate that employee representatives sit on corporate boards, while US presidential candidate Hillary Clinton has promised corporate governance reform. When diversity considerations draw the attention of policymakers, companies and investors must increasingly take note.”
To download the Responsible Capitalism paper, click here
Kareen Peetz - Foto BNY Mellon. La primera mujer en presidir BNY Mellon, Kareen Peetz, anuncia su retiro
BNY Mellon ha anunciado que su presidenta, Karen B. Peetz, ha decidido retirarse de la compañía a cierre de este ejercicio.
Peetz, primera mujer que preside BNY Mellon, se unió a la compañía en 1998 y ha desempeñado un papel fundamental en períodos de grandes cambios en la organización, incluyendo la superación de los desafíos posteriores a la crisis financiera y la adopción de un enfoque en la gestión de las relaciones con clientes más estratégico y orientado hacia el mercado y las soluciones.
Peetz ha sido reconocida constantemente por su contribución a la industria de servicios financieros y actualmente encabeza el ranking de American Banker de «Las 25 mujeres más influyentes en la Banca», como reconocimiento a su estilo de gestión, habilidades para el manejo de la crisis, su influencia e implicación con obras benéficas.
«El liderazgo, la experiencia en la industria y la colaboración de Karen se echarán en falta en BNY Mellon, que le está extremadamente agradecida por sus muchas contribuciones durante su mandato», declaró Gerald Hassell, presidente y CEO de BNY Mellon.
Peetz supervisa globalmente la gestión de clientes y las direcciones regionales, sus servicios de tesorería y sus funciones de supervisión regulatorias. Antes de ser nombrada presidenta en enero de 2013, dirigió el antiguo grupo de Financial Markets and Treasury Services de BNY Mellon, compuesto por los servicios de Inversiones Alternativas, Broker Dealer, Servicios de Asesoría, Corporate Trust, Certificados de Depósito y Negocios de Servicios de Tesorería.
There is an emerging trend among distributors of pairing multi-asset strategies, for regular income, with liquid alternatives to achieve additional returns.
For instance, banks are advising liquid alternatives to retail investors, which was once targeted at high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) by certain banks. At a small-to-mid-sized Asian private bank, the advised allocation to liquid alternatives was 20%, while another global/regional bank’s recommendation was 40% for mass affluent clients.
Wealth managers are upbeat on liquid alternative products that are based on long-short or global macro strategies as they believe these strategies can provide investors returns that are uncorrelated to traditional asset classes. Structured products with option strategies as an income-generating idea are also often advised by wealth managers to investors with higher risk appetites.
However, according to a survey conducted for The Cerulli Report – Wealth Management in Asia 2016, retail investors in Asia may not be ready for liquid alternatives just yet.
The survey reveals that the appetite for such products remains low, as investment preference lies in cash and deposits, even as investors wish for 3% to 5% higher returns than their respective country’s one-year deposit rates and cite portfolio diversification as their top priority.
While Asian investors seem to adopt a cautious approach to their investments, Cerulli notes that a lot of convincing needs to be done by asset managers and distributors.
The Alternative Investment Management Association (AIMA), the global representative for alternative asset managers, has announced a new Chairman and the formation of a new AIMA Council, the Association’s global board of directors.
Taking over as AIMA Chair is Simon Lorne, Vice Chairman and Chief Legal Officer, Millennium Management LLC. He replaces the former SEC Commissioner Kathleen Casey, who served as Chair of AIMA from September 2012 to September 2016.
There are four new additions to the AIMA Council – Robyn Grew, Chief Administrative Officer and GC, Man Group Plc; Han Ming Ho, Partner, Sidley Austin; Ryan Taylor, Partner and Global Head of Compliance, Brevan Howard Asset Management LLP; and Michael Weinberg, Senior Managing Director, Chief Investment Strategist, Protégé Partners.
The Council, who will serve from September 2016 to September 2018, is as follows:
Simon Lorne, Millennium Management LLC (Chair)
Jack Inglis, AIMA
Olwyn Alexander, PwC
Andrew Bastow, AQR Capital Managements (Europe) LLP
Fiona Carpenter, EY
Stuart Fiertz, Cheyne Capital Management (UK) LLP
Robyn Grew, Man Group Plc
Han Ming Ho, Sidley Austin
Tim O’Brien, Pine River Capital Management LP
Martin Pabari, CQS (UK) LLP
Christopher Pearce, Marshall Wace Asia Ltd
Henry Smith, Maples and Calder
Ryan Taylor, Brevan Howard Asset Management LLP
Philip Tye, HFL Advisors Limited
Karl Wachter, Magnetar Capital LLC
Michael Weinberg, Chief Investment Strategist, Protégé Partners
As well as Casey, Eva Sanchez of Citadel Europe and Choo San Yeoh of Albourne Partners are also stepping down from the Council.
AIMA Chairman Simon Lorne said: “I’m honored to be named as AIMA’s Chair at this important time in our industry’s evolution. I look forward to working with the outstanding firms and individuals who are the global face of our industry as we work together to best serve the interests of our individual and institutional investors around the world.”
AIMA CEO Jack Inglis said: “I am excited to have such a strong board to guide our work at AIMA, and I am very much looking forward to working closely with Simon Lorne, our new Chair, as we address the big issues facing alternative investment fund managers around the world. We are fortunate to welcome to the Council individuals with the skills and experience of Robyn Grew of Man, Ryan Taylor of Brevan Howard, Michael Weinberg of Protégé Partners and Han Ming Ho of Sidley Austin. On behalf of AIMA and all the membership, I also would like to pay tribute to our out-going Chair Kathleen Casey, who served the Association with such distinction these last four years, and Eva Sanchez and Choo San Yeoh, who have made such an important contribution to AIMA and the global industry over a number of years.”
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrHelmer Arizmendy, foto cedida. Lombard International abre oficina en Miami
Lombard International anunció recientemente la apertura de su oficina en Miami, FL, ubicada en el 801 de Brickell Avenue. La nueva oficina será un centro para el equipo de ventas de Lombard Internacional que les permitirá alcanzar a los altos patrimonios de individuos, familias e instituciones en América Latina.
Según Helmer Arizmendy, quien encabeza la práctica en América Latina de Lombard International, la oficina de Miami servirá para acercarse a los asesores y altos patrimonios en Latam «Con esta nueva expansión, esperamos poder dar a conocer nuestras soluciones disponibles para ayudar a proteger y preservar la riqueza».
Esta apertura se lleva a cabo poco después de la expansión de Lombard Internacional en las Bermudas con el nombramiento de Phil Trussell como director administrativo senior para dirigir el crecimiento de sus operaciones de seguros de vida en la región. Además, a principios de este año Lombard Internacional abrió una oficina de representación en París y dos oficinas de corretaje en Asia.
«A medida que el número de individuos y familias de alto patrimonio sigue creciendo, América Latina es, cada vez más, un mercado clave para Lombard internacional», dijo Ken Kilbane, vicepresidente ejecutivo y jefe de Distribución Global en Lombard Internacional. «La apertura de esta nueva oficina consolida -aún más- nuestra posición como líder mundial en soluciones de ingeniería patrimonial para el mercado de alto patrimonio».
Yesterday night Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump faced each other in their first Presidential Debate at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York. The apparent winner was Hillary Clinton. While she calmly and eloquently touched many policy areas in detail, Trump’s lack of preparation had him ranting in a sloppy pattern of interruption after the first half hour, and the markets noticed. For example the Mexican peso – dollar parity went from 19.89 pesos per dollar at the beginning of the debate, to 19.54 towards the end.
Amongst the more memorable quotes are:
From Hillary:
«I think Donald just criticized me for preparing for this debate. And, yes, I did. You know what else I prepared for? I prepared to be president. And I think that’s a good thing.»
«Well, Donald, I know you live in your own reality,» Clinton responding to Trump’s trade attack.
From Donald:
That makes me smart,» Trump said in response to Clinton saying he might not pay federal income taxes.
«I was going to say something extremely rough to Hillary, to her family, and I said to myself, ‘I can’t do it. I just can’t do it.’ It’s inappropriate. It’s not nice,’ » Trump told CNN after the debate.
During the debate they engaged in an occasionally raw series of clashes on topics from trade policy to the Iran deal to Trump’s taxes. It is clear the presidential candidates don’t often see eye to eye, but they both agree that the US needs to fix its crumbling infrastructure. Allianz Global Investors created an infographic that shows how infrastructure spending could pay off for the economy – and how investors could take advantage.
According to Kristina Hooper, US Investment Strategist at Allianz Global Investors “The US presidential election has the potential to negatively affect markets in the short term. Depending on the outcome of the Congressional races, the new president may not be able to see much of his or her platform come to fruition. However, both candidates are likely to increase fiscal spending, which should be positive for the US economy – particularly since it’s unclear how effective monetary policy still is. Investors may want to take a ‘wait-and-see‘ approach to making sector bets – except for infrastructure, which is likely to benefit regardless of who wins in November. Either way, investors should also expect greater volatility as we get closer to the election.”
Foto: Roman Boed
. El Foro FOX Otoño 2016 se centrará en “reforzar la colaboración"
Family Office Exchange (FOX) ha dado a conocer el programa de su 2016 FOX Fall Forum, que se celebra entre el 2 y el 4 de noviembre en Chicago. El foro de otoño de este año, titulado «Fortaleciendo la colaboración«, pondrá de relieve cuestiones que afectan a las relaciones entre los líderes de las familias, los ejecutivos de las oficinas y los asesores de confianza y ofrecerá técnicas para reforzarlas. Cabe destacar la participación en el evento de:
Mellody Hobson, presidenta de Ariel Investments y presidenta del Consejo de Administración de DreamWorks Animation, que se unirá a la fundadora y CEO de FOX, Sara Hamilton, en una charla informal para hablar de su filosofía de inversión y las muchas formas en que las familias pueden colaborar para hacer del mundo un sitio mejor en las próximas décadas.
Michael Hayden, general retirado de las fuerzas aéreas norteamericanas, principal en Chertoff Group y ex director de la Agencia Nacional de Seguridad y la Agencia Central de Inteligencia, que explorará los dinámicos acontecimientos geopolíticos de hoy en día y los riesgos, con especial atención a la inteligencia y ciberseguridad en todo el mundo.
Julia Balandina Jacquier, fundadora y managing director de JBJ Consult, que hablará sobre por qué y cómo las familias líderes en riqueza utilizan la inversión de impacto, y compartirá ideas tomadas de su nuevo estudio «Catalizar la riqueza para el cambio, una guía para la inversión de impacto».
Mark Hatch, autor de «The Maker Movement Manifesto», que compartirán cómo la fabriación avanzada, el crowdfunding, la economía colaborativa y los mercados online están allanando el camino para que las personas puedan crear, innovar y generar riqueza para ellos y sus inversores.
«FOX Fall Forum es el evento más señalado de la familia de la gestión del patrimonio, con ideas y contactos que no se encuentran en ningún otro lugar», declara el presidente de FOX, Alexandre Monnier. «Estamos especialmente ilusionados con el programa de este año, que cuenta con ponentes reconocidos mundialmente para tratar una amplia gama de relevantes temas para nuestros socios».
La agenda del Foro de otoño incluye sesiones en las que analizará el tema de los acuerdos y las colaboraciones tanto dentro como fuera de las familias. También explorará temas como la inversión en un entorno post electoral, el diseño de un plan de estudios que informe y solidifique las asociaciones, comprender y abordar la brecha de riqueza, o valorar el papel de la narración familiar para mantener la continuidad de la familia y su visión.
Y al igual que en todos los foros como FOX, los asistentes tendrán la oportunidad de ampliar sus redes con otros propietarios de negocios y ejecutivos con amplia experiencia en varios eventos sociales de acoplamiento.
Puede encontrar más información sobre el foro utilizando este link.
