According to the latest BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research report, conducted from March 4-10, 2016, average cash balances are down to 5.1%, from a 15 year-high of 5.6% in February. While the three top most crowded trades are Shorting Emerging Markets, Long US dollar and Shorting Oil.
“With cash levels now slightly above their 3-year average, investors no longer are sending the unambiguous buy signal we saw last month,” said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch.
During March investors made a strong rotation of positioning into industrials, energy, materials and Emerging Markets, with the biggest monthly jump in allocation to commodities on record. Also, allocation to real estate/REITS experienced its second highest month in survey history.
The survey also noted that investors have flipped their views on credit, with a net 15% believing high yield will outperform high grade in March, versus a net 13% favoring HG in February. Net overweight positions in equities improved.
Regarding the US Monetary Policy, the vast majority of fund managers still expect no more than two Fed hikes in the next 12 months, while a record net 35% think global fiscal policy is still too restrictive, and “quantitative failure” is seen as one of the biggest tail risks.
According to Manish Kabra, European equity and quantitative strategist, “global investors are trimming their extreme regional views and cite ‘quantitative failure’ as the biggest tail risk. However, they remain the least bearish on Europe.” Europe is seen as relative winner as European cash allocations dropped to average levels, and the region remained the most preferred globally; EUR now seen as cheapest since April 2003. Japan has fallen further out of favor as allocation to Japanese equities declines to a 22-month low of net 15% overweight, down from net 24% overweight in February, whereas in Emerging Markets, Chinese growth expectations jump to 4-month highs but a net 26% of investors still expect a weaker Chinese economy over the next 12 months.
According to Detlef Glow, Head of EMEA research at Lipper, assets under management in the European mutual fund industry faced net outflows of €24.5 bn from long-term mutual funds during February.
The single fund markets with the highest net inflows for February were Switzerland (+€1.5 bn), Ireland (+€1.2 bn), Norway (+€0.8 bn), Germany (+€0.4 bn), and Andorra (+€0.1 bn). Meanwhile, Luxembourg was the single market with the highest net outflows (-€18.3 bn), bettered by the United Kingdom (-€2.8 bn) and Spain (-€0.8 bn).
Absolute Return EUR Medium (+€1.6 bn) was the best selling sector for February among long-term funds.
In terms of asset types, Bond funds (-€11.5 bn) were the one with the highest outflows in Europe for February, by equity funds (-€8.4 bn), mixed-asset funds (-€5.8 bn), and “other” funds (-€0.8 bn). On the other side of the table alternative UCITS funds (+€1.1 bn) saw the highest net inflows, followed by real estate products (+€0.6 bn) and commodity funds (+€0.3 bn).
BlackRock, with net sales of €5.4 bn, was the best selling fund group for February overall, ahead of Generali (+€2.9 bn) and Legal & General (+€2.7 bn). MMA II – European Muti Credit BI (CHF hedged) (+€0.7 bn) was the best selling individual long-term fund for February.
Signs of a global economic slowdown have impacted the US equity market this year and led to discussions about a possible recession in both the US economy and US corporate profits. Grant Bowers, vice president, Franklin Equity Group, says current conditions and the outlook for a key economic indicator don’t warrant such strong language. In this Q&A, Bowers maintains that, with the help of stronger consumer spending, the backdrop for the US economy and US companies should remain generally positive for the remainder of 2016.
Concerns about growth in emerging markets and collapsing energy prices have led many to fear that despite generally positive economic data in the United States, we may not be able to avoid lapsing into a recession. This has driven market pessimism to extremely high levels in the first few weeks of 2016. Despite these fears, Bowers continues to believe the US economy is performing well, «and 2016 will likely surprise many with modest corporate earnings growth, strong consumer spending and gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the 2%–3% range. These types of broad-based selloffs typically create opportunities for long-term investors to buy high-quality companies at attractive prices, and we have been actively seeking bargains for our portfolios in recent weeks.»
Despite a rough start to the year, he adds that they «don’t see a recession on the horizon, and believe the US economy is stronger than many believe. Every expansion since World War II has gone through periods of slow growth. I believe that when we look back in the rear-view mirror later this year, we will see this period as a growth pause in a longer expansionary cycle.» Bowers cites the strength of the US consumer as one of the reasons they remain constructive on US equities.
According to him, two key themes that emerged from earnings season. «First, a stronger US dollar was a headwind for many multinational companies, and the currency impact combined with slower global growth resulted in companies with high international exposure experiencing slower growth relative to more domestic or US-focused companies; second, lower oil and gas prices had a negative impact, where year-over-year earnings were down more than 70% for the energy sector, dragging down the average growth rate.» However he believes that «as consumers become more comfortable with lower energy prices, they will start increasing their spending on discretionary goods and increased consumption.»
Him and his team have a positive long-term outlook for technology and health care companies «with a tremendous amount of change likely to take place in the next few years… Some of the areas of technology that we are focused on are cyber security, Software as a Service (SaaS), cloud computing, digital payments, mobility and smart devices. In the health care sector, we continue to like the long-term outlook, where an aging population globally will drive increased consumption of health care services and demand for improved treatments and cures. This demographic tailwind combined with innovation in drug development and medical technology is creating numerous investment opportunities as well.»
Regarding the 2016 US presidential election, he believes the political uncertainty has contributed to some of the volatility we have seen year-to-date. And expects it to continue «until the presidential primaries are settled and we have a better understanding of who the major parties’ nominees are and what their policy proposals will be.»
Toscafund Asset Management and ML Capital are pleased to announce the restructuring and rebranding of the Pegasus UCITS Fund, the inaugural fund of the MontLake UCITS Platform. Launched in September 2010, the fund is now re-launching as the Tosca Micro Cap UCITS Fund. MontLake is a leading independent platform for UCITS funds that provides investors with access to a range of liquid, transparent and regulated investment products domiciled in Ireland.
The Fund will invest primarily in UK listed «micro cap» companies (defined as companies with a market capitalisation of up to £250m) and will seek to exploit inefficiencies in this sector of the market. This is a large universe of companies, many of which receive little coverage and are poorly understood in the market. Toscafund has a proven track record over the long term in UK mid-cap and small-cap investing, and the Tosca Micro Cap UCITS Fund is a natural extension of this same fundamental, value-orientated strategy, applied to the opportunity-rich UK micro cap sector.
The Fund will be led and managed by Matthew Siebert and supported by analysts Daniel Cane and Jamie Taylor. They work with and are supported by the team of investment professionals within Toscafund, many with over 20 years of investment experience. The Fund will capitalise on Toscafund’s mid cap expertise, employing the same core skill sets and doing deep dive research into companies, markets, sectors and peers, and benefitting from the existing relationships with analysts, brokers and companies.
The Tosca Micro Cap UCITS Fund’s capacity will be set at £50m, and Toscafund partners intend to invest a minimum of 10% in the Fund. The revised investment policy will also allow for investment of up to 20% of the NAV in companies that have a larger capitalisation, of up to £1bn. The Fund will have a diversified portfolio of 30 to 40 holdings, with risk limits governing position sizing.
According to Cyril Delamare, CEO of ML Capital: «Pegasus was the first fund to launch on the MontLake Platform, and it is exciting for us to see it develop as the Tosca Micro Cap UCITS Fund. Toscafund are a best in class manager and are committed to growing the fund to its full potential – we look forward to its progress in the year ahead.»
Martin Hughes, Founder and CEO of Toscafund said: «I look forward to investing in the Tosca Micro Cap UCITS Fund as the fund managers will uncover hidden gems, companies with high growth prospects that are neglected by mainstream funds as the valuations are deemed too small. This will be a very profitable strategy and an area where you find the acorns that then turn into oak trees.»
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrAsa Norrie, responsable de Desarrollo de Negocio para Europa de Standard Life Investments. Foto cedida. SLI continúa su expansión mundial: el 67% de las suscripciones netas en 2015 llegaron ya de fuera del Reino Unido
Standard Life Investments sigue creciendo en Europa, a tenor de los datos que ofreció en la presentación de sus resultados correspondientes al año pasado. La gestora, que ha incrementado sus activos bajo gestión para clientes europeos en un 32% en 2015, hasta los 19.300 millones de euros –desde los 14.600 de finales de 2014- y ha captado dinero por valor de 4.700 millones de euros –triplicando las suscripciones del año pasado-, continúa con su expansión global y ya está presente en 27 ciudades del mundo.
En Europa el año pasado abrió oficina en Zúrich, y se expandió en Ámsterdam, Estocolmo y Fráncfort.
También hizo crecer el equipo europeo de Desarrollo de Negocio, hasta más de 20 personas basadas en toda Europa, del sur y del norte y en su sede de Edimburgo. Y espera un mayor crecimiento en el equipo en los próximos meses.
Su internacionalización se hace patente también en el negocio que viene de fuera: el 67% de las suscripciones netas proceden de fuera del Reino Unido en la medida en que sigue internacionalizándose y haciendo su negocio global.
En total, sus activos en todo el mundo han crecido un 8% hasta los 343.500 millones de euros, frente a los 316.800 de finales de 2014, con los activos de terceros subiendo un 17% (hasta 177.100 millones de euros) y con fuertes entradas de estos inversores (14.200 millones de euros).
Asa Norrie, responsable de Desarrollo de Negocio en Europa de la gestora, comentó: “En este escenario de bajos e incluso negativos tipos de interés en Europa, muchos inversores, tanto mayoristas como institucionales, buscan carteras que gestionen el capital de forma eficiente y que ofrezcan una verdadera diversificación”, comenta. “Hemos sido activos en Europa durante una década y seguimos viendo demanda por nuestra gama de soluciones de inversión que incluyen renta fija y renta variable junto con real estate, private equity y nuestras innovadoras soluciones multiactivo”.
De cara a este año, afirma que “con las difíciles condiciones en Europa y a escala global, su experiencia en la gestión de riesgos y su filosofía de inversión centrada en los cambios “seguirán siendo claves para ayudar a lograr consistentes rentabilidades y soluciones para nuestros clientes en la región”.
EFAMA strongly supports actions to deepen the European single market for retail financial products and services, and address its remaining barriers, for consumers and businesses to make full use of it.
Alexander Schindler, President of EFAMA, said: “Investment funds – UCITS in particular – are the best possible example to date of a well-functioning EU single market for financial services, and UCITS is often cited as a successful story to find inspiration from”. The share of funds distributed on a cross-border basis in Europe is regularly increasing and stood at 42% of total European investment fund assets in 2014 (from 29% at the end of 2004).
The UCITS cross-border distribution is working well, yet there is still room for improvement. EFAMA has identified a number of obstacles that are still hindering the cross-border distribution of investment funds. This mostly stems from the absence of an EU regulatory framework in certain areas, goldplating of EU legislation, fragmented marketing rules or discriminatory withholding of tax by EU Member States.
This should be addressed to further reinforce the merits of UCITS as a true cross-border financial product. In this sense, EFAMA is strongly in favour of building on the UCITS success factors and replicate these in other sectors, most notably in the area of personal pensions.
EFAMA has long advocated for the creation of an EU personal pension product as a solution to overcome the fragmentation of personal pension markets in the EU.
Peter de Proft, Director General of EFAMA, commented: “We feel very strongly about the need to address the current fragmentation of the market for retirement savings. This has to be done in order to foster portability, economies of scale to lower costs and generate better returns to consumers, and also to enhance transparency, competition and innovation. The creation of a standardised Pan-European Personal Pension product (PEPP) would allow progressing in that direction“.
The response to the Green Paper is also the opportunity for EFAMA to support the important work done by EIOPA on the PEPP, which would coexist with existing personal pension products and would be used on a voluntary basis.
EFAMA equally welcomes the broader debate about digitalisation and its impact on the retail markets launched by the Green Paper. The trend towards greater digitalisation of financial services promises to bring another dimension to the way fund products are to be marketed and sold.
. ¿Alguna vez se ha preguntado cómo comprar el diamante perfecto?
La mayoría de las personas tienen al menos un diamante. En el año 1477 el archiduque Maximiliano de Austria presentó un anillo de diamantes a María de Borgoña como una señal de su compromiso. Desde entonces, estas piedras preciosas se han convertido en el símbolo número uno del amor y el matrimonio en todo el mundo.
Pero, ¿qué es lo que realmente sabemos de ellos? Fuera de que son brillantes, duros y costosos, muy pocas personas aprenden mucho acerca de estas piedras. Ya sea para un regalo, por gusto o como una inversión, Karen Simmons, gemóloga de la GIA revela el misterio del tema en su nuevo libro, Perfectamente claro – la compra de diamantes por placer y beneficio (Perfectly Clear – Buying Diamonds for Pleasure and Profit).
«Durante décadas», dice Karen, «a las personas se les ha enseñado que el valor de un diamante depende de la forma en que se clasifica de acuerdo a las 4C: corte, color, claridad y quilates de peso. Pero realmente hay una quinta C, la cual hace toda la diferencia. Esta significa «carácter» y es lo que establece y garantiza la integridad. Una de la mejor manera de identificar y establecer la integridad de un diamante es pedir una prueba que asegure que la propiedad del diamante puede ser rastreada desde su mina de nacimiento hasta el actual propietario o vendedor».
Perfectamente claro ofrece un vistazo a la historia y los fascinantes entresijos del comercio de diamantes. Dando un asesoramiento nítido sobre cómo navegar por el complejo mundo de la compra de un diamante y cómo reducir al mínimo el pagar demasiado, además de incluir una sección especial sobre estas gemas y sus vínculos con la superstición, usos medicinales, y las creencias espirituales.
Incluidos en las recomendaciones de Simmons para cualquiera que esté interesado en la protección de su inversión en diamantes se encuentran:
Haga o DO’s:
Considere los diamantes de color
Compre y evalué diamantes como piedras sueltas
Identifique su diamante
Conozca bien al joyero
Determine el valor real del diamante
Aprenda los conceptos básicos de los diamantes
Disfrute las distintas formas de diamantes
No haga o DON’Ts:
Compre un diamante sin un reporte de terceros
Ignore el peligro de comprar diamantes por internet
Dependa en una sóla fuente de información
Se deje llevar por la política
Considere a los diamantes tratados iguales a los naturales
Foto: Dennis Jarvis
. iCapital Network compra HedgeFocus a Credit Suisse
Credit Suisse e iCapital Network, una plataforma de tecnología financiera que ofrece acceso a inversiones alternativas al mercado high-net-worth, han anunciado la firma de un acuerdo en virtud del cual iCapital adquiere el negocio HedgeFocus del banco suizo.
La cartera de HedgeFocus contiene más de 20 hedge funds que representan aproximadamente 1.800 millones de dólares en activos, en una combinación de estrategias event driven, multi estrategia, direccionales, de valor relativo y tácticas gestionadas por managers solventes. Con la transferencia de los activos, iCapital será responsable de dar continuidad a la administración y servicio de las inversiones existentes, así como la comercialización, administración y servicio a los nuevos inversores que suscriban a través de iCapital.
«Esta adquisición es una extensión natural de nuestra estrategia de negocio, que nos ayuda a expandir nuestra presencia de forma perfectamente alineada con las prioridades de inversión críticas del grupo HNW por acceso, elección y transparencia», dijo Lawrence Calcaño, socio director de iCapital. «Lo mires por donde lo mires, este acuerdo transformará la compañía y supone un hito importante en nuestros esfuerzos por dotar a la “comunidad del wealth independiente” de una solución innovadora para sus inversiones alternativas».
«Este acuerdo es la culminación de una estrecha relación laboral con iCapital que se remonta al nacimiento de la firma en 2013», declaró, por su parte, Eileen Duff Blalock, directora de inversiones alternativas de Credit Suisse Banca Privada Norteamérica. «Había que ser muy bien con quién podemos confiar a estos activos a, y, después de revisar cuidadosamente todo el paisaje, sabíamos que iCapital fue la decisión correcta en nombre de nuestros inversores y gestores de relaciones.»
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrFoto: Ed Yourdon, Flickr, Creative Commons. Neuberger Berman pacta con Fideurman-Intesa Sanpaolo Private Banking la distribución de sus fondos UCITS en Italia
Neuberger Berman ha firmado un acuerdo con Fideuram-Intesa Sanpaolo Private Banking SpA, una de las mayores entidades de banca privada en Italia y una de las firmas líderes también en Europa, que permitirá a la gestora distribuir sus fondos UCITS en las redes de Fideuram y Sanpaolo Invest.
Así, su gama de fondos estará disponible para más de 5.000 banqueros privados de Fideuram y Sanpaolo Invest. Esa gama está compuesta por varios fondos domiciliados en Irlanda y que invierten en renta variable, renta fija y estrategias alternativas en formato líquido.
“Es un logro clave en nuestra estrategia en Italia, que es un mercado muy importante para nosotros”, decía Dik van Lomwel, responsable de EMEA y LatAm en Neuberger Berman. “Ya tenemos una significativa colaboración con Intesa Sanpaolo que empezó el año pasado en mayo, cuando establecimos una asociación estratégica en private equity”, recuerda.
Paolo Molesini, CEO de Fideuram – Intesa Sanpaolo Private Banking, asegura que el acuerdo les permite fortalecer la calidad de su rango de productos y “es un paso importante en nuestra continua búsqueda de valor tanto para los banqueros privados como para los clientes”.
According to Marion Le Morhedec and Jonathan Baltora, managers of the AXA WF Global Inflation Bonds fund at AXA Investment Managers, central banks’ loss of credibility has been one of the major investment themes since the start of 2016. One of the main indicators has been the fall in inflation breakevens reflecting investor fears that we may be entering a deflation spiral that central banks would be unable to stop. However, the fall in oil prices has massively influenced inflation expectations and drawing the conclusion that central banks have lost credibility because of this is overblown.
“The oil price impact on inflation is significant. We estimate that 80% of inflation volatility may be explained by oil. However, food and oil price fluctuations only have a short-term impact on inflation. Assuming stable oil prices, headline inflation rates will gradually increase towards core inflation rates in the later part of the year.» Scenario the managers consider encouraging for the inflation linked bond market «as inflation expectations have become very sensitive to short term inflation developments. We now expect these to better reflect core inflation dynamics.»
They highlight that the US 10-year inflation breakeven, which is a measure of the average annual inflation over the next decade, is trading 0.7% below the current rate of core inflation. «We believe that this is excessively pessimistic. Since the Lehman fallout, this situation has been seen only twice and resulted in a sharp increase of inflation breakevens. The first time was in the exact aftermath of the Lehman failure and the second time in the darkest hours of the euro area crisis. Those two situations were followed by a strong rise in inflation expectations over the subsequent six months. Interestingly, the current situation in the inflation market is the exact opposite of what happened in 2012. In 2012, markets were pricing higher future inflation than current inflation, suggesting that central banks had lost control, facing the risk of high inflation. On this basis, we have added inflation-sensitive positions to our portfolios especially in the US Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS) market where we see the greatest opportunities over the coming months based on the simple observation that inflation linked bonds do not really forecast inflation, but are instead attracted to the current core inflation rate. We do not sit in the camp of those thinking that central banks have lost control, but instead believe that a volatile start to 2016 may have led some investors to lose their nerve…”, they conclude.
