CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrFoto: MARCUS NUNES
. Foro de directores de inversión de familias y family offices
La cita para directores de inversión de familias y family offices, organizada semestralmente por Family Office Exchange (FOX), llega en su convocatoria de otoño “2016 FOX Autumn Global Investment Forum”, que tendrá lugar el día 15 de septiembre a Nueva York.
El foro está diseñado de acuerdo con los intereses y necesidades de los decisores en temas de inversión, los directores de inversión, ya sean un miembro de la familia o de un family office, a los que se espera.
Entre las sesiones, cabe destacar la llamada “liberando tu capital psicológico” con Denise Shull, fundadora y CEO de The ReThink Group; una visión de los mercados emergentes con Nicolas Rohatyn, CEO/CIO de The Rohatyn Group; un almuerzo en que examinar el tema “mujeres y riqueza” con Sallie Krawcheck, consejera de Ellevate y co fundadora/CEO de Ellevest; un panel con tres titulares de grandes patrimonios que comunicarán su perspectiva particular y cómo ven las inversiones directas.
According to the latest BofA Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey cash levels dropped sharply, from a 15-year high of 5.8%, to 5.4% in August. At the same time, global growth expectations rebounded, with a net 23% of investors expecting the global economy to improve in the next 12 months.
“Investors are less bearish, but sentiment has yet to shift from ‘fear’ to ‘greed’. As such, we expect stock prices to rise further until bonds throw another tantrum,” said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist.
Other findings include:
Central banks’ creation of a low and stable rates environment is a big factor driving fresh optimism and a preference among fund managers for deflation assets over inflation assets; only 13% of respondents expect the BoJ or ECB negative interest rate policy to end within the next 12 months
A record net 48% of investors think global fiscal policy is currently too restrictive
Geopolitics is seen as the largest risk to financial market stability, followed by protectionism – which is cited at the highest level since December 2010
EU disintegration, followed by renewed China devaluation and US inflation are seen by investors as the biggest tail risks
Allocation to US equities is highest since January 2015 at a net 11% overweight
Allocation to Eurozone equities remains low at a net 1% overweight while allocation to UK equities improves to net 21% underweight from net 27% underweight last month
Allocation to EM equities improves to net 13% overweight, its highest level since September 2014
While allocation to Japanese equities improves to a net 1% underweight from a net 7% underweight last month, allocation preference for the next 12 months worsens to -8% from -3% with only the UK behind Japan
Manish Kabra, European equity quantitative strategist, added that «Eurozone equity allocations are broadly unchanged amid concerns of EU disintegration and UK stocks are still the least-preferred. Within Europe, we prefer UK large-caps from both a positioning and macro perspective, as they benefit from weaker GDP, lower yields and less European exposure.»
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrCamilo Lopez da entrada a Jorge Escobar como socio igualitario en la firma de real estate TSG - foto cedida. Camilo Lopez da entrada a Jorge Escobar como socio igualitario en la firma de real estate TSG
La compañía de inversión inmobiliaria, promoción y venta de activos de real estateTSG –previamente conocida como The Solution Group– ha anunciado que Jorge Escobar se une a la firma como socio en condiciones de igualdad al fundador y CEO de la misma, Camilo Lopez. El nuevo socio, que ha desarrollado una carrera de más de 20 años en la industria de los servicios financieros internacionales y cuyo último puesto ha sido el de global market head de HSBC Private Bank en Chile, será managing partner de la compañía.
TSG ha construido una cartera de más de 400 millones en activos desde su fundación en 2008 y cuenta con utilizar la experiencia financiera de Escobar para reforzar la plataforma boutique de la firma de forma global para invertir en real estate en el sur de Florida. La experiencia institucional de Escobar servirá para que la nueva estructura de la compañía haga crecer internacionalmente su red, con un acercamiento más sofisticado y continuado hacia las oportunidades de inversión de los mercados locales, en procesos extremadamente personalizados.
“Estoy entusiasmado de poder dar la bienvenida a Jorge a la familia de TSG”, declaró Lopez. “Habiendo desarrollado relaciones solventes en América Latina, Estados Unidos y Europa durante décadas, Jorge cuenta con la combinación ideal de experiencia en inversiones globales y de empuje emprendedor que añaden un enorme valor a nuestra organización. Al complementar mi experiencia identificando oportunidades en real estate e ideando diseños, nuestra alianza dotará de una estrategia robusta que permita ampliar el valor de TSG”.
Antes de su incorporación a TSG, Escobar era responsable de supervisar más de 1.500 millones en fondos para clientes high-net-worth –grandes patrimonios- en todo el mundo. Antes de sus nueve años en HSBC Private Bank Chile, fue director del negocio de banca privada de ABN AMRO en Chile, y trabajó en BankBoson Private Bank después de iniciar su carrera en Citi.
“Me enorgullezco de unirme a esta sólida organización creada sobre la base del liderazgo astuto y los fundamentales sólidos”, dice, por su parte, Escobar. “Mi entrada en real estate es un movimiento natural dada la privilegiada posición del sur de la Florida”
The latest European ETF Market Review from Thomson Reuters Lipper shows that assets under management in the European exchange-traded fund (ETF) industry increased from 452.8 billion euros in June to a new all-time high of 473.6 billion euros at the end of July. Further insight and analysis for both assets under management and fund flows by asset type, classification, promoter and fund can be found here.
According to Detlef Glow, Head of EMEA research at Thomson Reuters Lipper, the increase of 20.8 billion euros for July was mainly driven by the performance of the underlying markets (+€12.8 bn), while net sales contributed €8.0 billion to the overall growth in assets under management in the ETF segment.
Bond ETFs (+€5.0 billion) enjoyed the highest net inflows for July. Equity US (+€1.5 bn), followed by Equity Emerging Markets Global (+€1.3 bn) and Equity Global (+€1.0 bn) were the best selling Lipper global classifications for July.
The best selling ETF promoters in Europe for July were iShares (+€7.2 bn), State Street SPDR (+€1.0 bn) and Vanguard (+€0.5 bn). The ten best selling funds gathered total net inflows of €4.6 bn for July. iShares Diversified Commodity Swap (+ €0.7 bn), was the best selling individual ETF for July.
Amid a global economic slowdown and waning growth prospects for Latin America, presidential politics in four countries -Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Peru- have also greatly impacted the prospects of recovery, according to the latest research from global analytics firm Cerulli Associates.
These findings and more are from “Latin American Distribution Dynamics 2016: Keys to Gaining a Foothold in Increasingly Globalized Market”, a report developed in partnership between Cerulli and Latin Asset Management.
«In broad terms, the movements signal a return to free-market and investor-friendly policies, reversing a troubling trend toward populism, nationalism, and expansion of the welfare state,» explains Thomas V. Ciampi, founder and director of Latin Asset Management. «In fact, as of mid-2016, only Venezuela and minor players Ecuador and Bolivia were still proudly carrying the leftist torch, while the rest of Latin America had seemed to grow restless with that approach.»
«The asset management industries in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Peru-including the AFP private-pension businesses in Chile and Peru, the local mutual fund industries of the four countries, and for offshore asset gathering through the wealth management channel-all face consequences from the shifts in leadership and the attitudes of the public,» Ciampi adds.
«In the case of Argentina especially, the recent election of pro-market president Mauricio Macri boded well for a normalization of the local capital markets, but created uncertainty for cross-border firms that have raised tremendous amounts of assets via the offshore wealth channel,» Ciampi said, noting that the government was eager to launch an amnesty plan aimed a repatriating a portion of the USD 500 billion of Argentine-investor assetsheld abroad.
It may be time to add to inflation-sensitive assets.
I recently was giving a presentation on the various risks stalking global markets, speaking from a list in a PowerPoint deck. Included were the usual suspects: negative growth shocks, China, commodity prices, over-aggressive action by the Fed, the strong dollar, etc. But then someone raised their hand and asked, what about higher inflation? I realized it wasn’t even shown.
Pausing for a moment, I thought, did that omission make sense? Should we relegate inflation risk to a footnote and focus our attention on the more obvious challenges that face the global economy and markets? After all, U.S. headline inflation is running at just a 0.8% annual rate, while in Europe it’s a mere 0.2%. Inflation is something that central banks are trying to catalyze, not eradicate, and generally with limited success.
On the other hand, that doesn’t mean that higher prices won’t make a comeback. A few weeks ago, my colleague Brad Tank explored the potential value of an unpredictable Federal Reserve in addressing inflation, and noted Alan Greenspan’s recently articulated view that a combination of economic stagnation and price increases could be something to worry about.
In my view, unexpected inflation could emerge from a combination of flashpoints, whether the strong U.S. housing market, firming wages or health care costs, which have been low but are now starting to surge, three years into Obamacare. Other potentially inflationary trends are (aside from a post-Brexit bump) this year’s decline in the dollar as well as the rally in commodities. Employment figures are already at the Fed’s target levels, implying that wage pressures may be building, while the most recent print for U.S. core inflation (excluding energy and food) was 2.2%, or north of the central bank’s long-term target.
Thinking about Inflation Hedges
In the context of a multi-asset portfolio, it is important to consider the potential cost of hedging the risks of extreme economic environments. Right now, it is very expensive to hedge against negative growth shocks—because the traditional vehicles for this purpose, cash and government bonds, pay investors very little, if anything. In contrast, the cost of hedging against inflation is relatively low. Although commodity prices have increased this year, they remain at deflated levels, while the breakeven rate for 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) is about 1.5%, which is lower than the current core inflation rate in the U.S. (implying a return premium if inflation continues at or exceeds current levels).
Based on the pricing of inflation in the markets, it’s clear that few investors are really focused on it as a risk. But given the low price of inflation-sensitive assets, our Multi-Asset team believes that it may make sense to add to them in diversified portfolios. At this point, we prefer TIPS over commodities, which given recent gains are likely to be range-bound in the near term. TIPS also have the advantage of providing some duration exposure, which can be helpful if we experience further declines in interest rates. Although U.S. bonds appear pricey in relation to U.S. fundamentals, we acknowledge that their yields may decline further based on the influence of negative rates in Europe and Japan.1 Nevertheless, on balance, our view is that rates are likely to creep up from here.
In sum, although I don’t believe higher inflation is a front-and-center concern, I do think that its importance is growing. It is often said that “the time to buy insurance is when it is cheap,” and inflation-hedging exposure is definitely cheaper than many other components of global markets. The potential for rising prices definitely merits an “upgrade” to my list of key risks the next time I give a talk on market prospects and asset allocation.
Following 2 hugely successful events in Miami, Fund Society and Open Door Media will be bringing together a selected group of the top fund selectors from the New York area with 5 leading asset management firms at the Fund Selector Forum New York 2016.
Kevin Thozet from Edmond de Rothschild and Jeffrey Germain from Brandes Investment Partners will be joined by Kevin Loome, of Henderson Global Investors and Sandra Crowl of Carmignac on the panel, taking place at the prestigious Waldorf Astoria on the morning of 18th October.
This event will bring key fund selectors from the New York area with top-performing Asset Managers to explore the latest portfolio management strategies and investment ideas. Places are reserved specifically for professional investors involved in fund selection, in the New York area, from a variety of institutions including:
Private Banks
Commercial Banks
Life Insurance Companies
Family Offices
Funds of Funds
To confirm your attendance, please contact Irma Gil, or register here.
Anke Sahlén and Daniel Kalczynski are now in charge of Deutsche Bank Wealth Management (WM) in Germany. As Co-Heads the 48 year-olds will pursue the goals of developing WM into the leading trusted expert advisor to wealthy clients and advancing Deutsche Bank’s market leadership in its home market.
Sahlén and Kalczynski have both spent many years at Deutsche Bank and in its Wealth Management. “The appointment of Anke and Daniel demonstrates continuity and stability – values to which wealthy clients attach great importance,” said Fabrizio Campelli, Global Head of Wealth Management. “I am pleased to appoint two recognised wealth management experts whose expertise and abilities complement one another.”
Sahlén and Kalczynski will also be responsible for Sal. Oppenheim and Deutsche Oppenheim Family Office AG and intensify cooperation with their colleagues in Deutsche Bank’s Private, Wealth & Corporate Clients division to ensure that wealthy clients have access to the best products and services within the bank.
Kalczynski joined Deutsche Bank in 1990. He has been managing WM Germany on an interim basis since April, in addition to his responsibility as Chief Operating Officer (COO) of WM Germany and prior to that of Asset & Wealth Management (AWM) Germany. His previous roles included Head of Sales Management and the Southern Region for WM Germany.
Sahlén started her career with Deutsche Bank in 1993 and has focused on advising wealthy clients both nationally and internationally ever since. She currently leads the WM team in Germany’s Eastern Region and is a member of the Management Board for that region.
In the minutes of the June meeting, we learned that despite a great deal of public commentary from Fed officials since the April meeting – including a statement from Chair Janet Yellen herself on 27 May that a rate hike could be appropriate “in the coming months” – many participants remained fixated on communication:
“Several participants expressed concern that the Committee’s communications had not been fully effective in informing the public how incoming information affected the Committee’s view of the economic outlook, its degree of confidence in the outlook, or the implications for the trajectory of monetary policy.”
That was a concern we also saw earlier this year, in the minutes of its April meeting, when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) conveyed that:
“Some [FOMC] participants were concerned that market participants may not have properly assessed the likelihood of an increase in the target range at the June meeting, and they emphasized the importance of communicating clearly over the intermeeting period how the Committee intends to respond to economic and financial developments. … It was noted that communications could help the public understand how the Committee might respond to incoming data and developments over the upcoming intermeeting period. Some members expressed concern that the likelihood implied by market pricing that the Committee would increase the target range for the federal funds rate at the June meeting might be unduly low.”
Which according to Richard Clarida, PIMCO’s global strategic advisor, it translates to: To value bonds, stocks and currencies, market participants need to understand how the Federal Reserve will react to incoming macro data and developments. In April, at least some members “expressed concern” that the market then didn’t understand the Fed’s reaction function and that more communication could help.
Coming clean on the reaction function Clarida believes that perhaps the problem is not inadequate communication, but rather the need for transparent communication that this Fed does not have a reaction function. «Or more precisely, perhaps the problem is that the FOMC has 16 individual reaction functions plus the reaction function of the chair, which she is either unwilling or unable to persuade the entire FOMC to adopt.» He beliebes that the minutes of the July Fed meeting released on Wednesday confirm this impression. They tell us that “some” voting members of the FOMC want to hike rates “soon,” and that a couple of participants – which can include nonvoting members – wanted to hike at the July meeting. However, at least a “couple” of members wanted to wait for “more evidence that inflation would rise to 2% on a sustained basis.” Noteworthy in this regard was the minutes’ discussion of core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred measure. Core PCE inflation is increasing at close to a 2% annual rate, “but it was noted that some of the increase likely reflected transitory effects that would be in part reversed during the second half of the year.” which claridas believes tell us that Fed “communications released in conjunction with the June FOMC meeting were interpreted by market participants as more accommodative than expected.”
«This is a Fed that continues to be mystified why it is misunderstood by market participants and observers. Right now, observers think a September policy rate hike is off the table. Chair Yellen will have her chance at Jackson Hole to put September in play. But after these minutes, “soon” does not look like September.» Claridas concludes.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrFoto: Christos Tsoumplekas, Flickr, Creative Commons. Muzinich & Co. ficha a cuatro profesionales para ampliar sus capacidades en préstamos sindicados europeos
La gestora especializada en crédito corporativo Muzinich & Co. ha anunciado en un comunicado que ha incorporado a cuatro nuevos profesionales a la entidad, con la finalidad de mejorar sus capacidades en la gestión de préstamos sindicados europeos.
Se trata de Torben Ronberg, Stuart Fuller, Sam McGairl y Alex Woolrich, que se unen a Muzinich desde ECM Asset Management, una subsidiaria de Wells Fargo.
“Estos profesionales con talento se centrarán en préstamos sindicados en Europa. Su larga experiencia complementa nuestras actuales actividades en el mercado de bonos privados cotizados europeos y deuda privada europea”, comentan desde la gestora.
Según la entidad, esta expansión del equipo forma parte de sus esfuerzos globales por invertir en toda la estructura de capital de las empresas y proporcionar buenas oportunidades de inversión a los clientes.
