Foto: AJ Cann
. El venture capital marca nuevo récord en 2015
En 2015 el valor agregado de las operaciones de venture capital creció por tercer año consecutivo, hasta situarse en 135.800 millones de dólares, frente a 93.500 millones de 2014 y más que duplicando los 57.100 de 2013. Aunque las 9.202 operaciones registradas en el año es una cifra similar a la de 2013 y 2014 (9.785 y 9.811 respectivamente), el tamaño medio de las operaciones creció hasta los 18,4 millones en 2015, desde 12,4 en 2014. Esto representa una caída del 6% en el número de operaciones en el último año, pero un aumento del 45% en su valor agregado, según publica Preqin en una nota.
Asia, en particular, ha visto un repunte significativo en la actividad, ya que Chinaregistró 1.605 operaciones, más que Europa, que se quedó en 1.373, mientras que la India registró 927 ofertas, casi el doble que en 2014, en que se registraron 512.
A pesar del sano entorno global, el significativo aumento en Asia lo tapó la disminución del resto del mundo. Europa registró 1.373 operaciones, en su segunda caída anual desde el máximo de 2.002 que registró en 2013 y el segundo menor número de operaciones desde 2010. Del mismo modo, aunque el valor agregado de las operaciones de América del Norte aumentó, el número de operaciones en la región cayó el 23%, pasando de 5.587 en 2014 a 4.307 en 2015. Aunque Preqin espera que estos totales aumenten a medida que se disponga de nuevos datos, la actividad de 2015 no parece que vaya a alcanzar los niveles observados en años anteriores.
Etapas, tamaños y salidas
La mayoría de las operaciones se produjeron en los primeros ciclo de vida de una empresa, con el 33% de las operaciones completadas en las fases previas al lanzamiento o etapa “semilla” y otro 26% en la etapa conocida como “serie A”;
El tamaño medio de las rondas de financiación se ha incrementado sustancialmente durante 2015. Las financiaciones de la Serie A crecieron un 34%, pasando 7,9 millones en 2014 a 10,6 este año, mientras que la financiación de la deuda pasó de media de 9,6 millones a 32,7. Las inversiones realizadas en la Serie D y posteriores suponen ahora una media de 94 millones.
La financiación en el mes de julio de Didi kuaidi fue, con 2.000 millones de dólares, la mayor operación de venture capital de 2015. De las 10 mayores operaciones del año, cinco tuvieron lugar en Asia y las otras cinco en Estados Unidos.
En general, las salidas se redujeron en 2015 por primera vez desde 2008, pasando de 1.138 en 2014 a 1.052 en 2015, y su valor total se redujo en un 41%, pasando de 125.100 millones a 73.300 millones.
«Ha sido otro gran año para el venture capital. De nuevo, Asia mostró un comportamiento fuerte durante todo el año y ha marcado un importante hito, ya que China ha superado el numero de operaciones de Europa por primera vez en la historia. Aunque América del Norte, especialmente California, sigue dominando la industria del venture capital, Asia está copando una parte mayor del mercado cada vez” dice Felice Egidio, jefe de productos de Venture Capital de Preqin.
“Las salidas han sido menores, tanto por número como por valor que en 2014. Un mercado difícil de salidas a bolsa ha hecho que los gestores e inversores fueran cautelosos, pero todavía se está generando mucho valor en las salidas de las empresas en cartera”, dice.
Reacting to the recent downturn in global equity markets, Francis Scotland of Brandywine Global, a Legg Mason affiliate, observed that there’s been a loss of confidence in the last month, which he attributed to a tightening global liquidity position; and capital coming out of financial assets worldwide. “We are in a correction that’s ongoing. I don’t expect it to be an extreme correction,” Mr. Scotland declared. “As a manager I like to use volatility to my advantage. I’m seeing compelling values come to the surface in U.S. stocks. The values tend to be in technology, financials, health care. A number of dividend growth stocks appear attractive. Quality-oriented stocks are doing better. That’s where the opportunities are.”
James Norman of QS Investors added that “people are re-evaluating where opportunities are. It’s hard to predict because a lot of it will be based on what investors believe. There’s going to be a lot of behavior involved in this. If people are nervous, markets will become more volatile. I think investors are nervous. We’ll have a lot of uneven economic data: some will surprise on the upside, some will surprise on the downside. It’s going to be very mixed. Going forward you need a diversified portfolio. Make sure you’re not exposed to too much of any individual economic risk or macro risk, whether oil prices, or China, or any of the things that China affects, and so on. That really is the best course of action. But it can go either way. If you look further out – three to five years – we think equities will be a very attractive place to be. However, it’s going to be a very bumpy ride over the next three to five years.”
Scott Glasser of ClearBridge Investments thinks the markets have retained many positives. “For stocks that are growing their earnings and giving capital back it is a fine environment,” he said. “We’re coming out of a period where we’ve had extremely low volatility, a function of a QE regime that had been in place for five plus years. Easy money and ultra low or zero interest rates promote a low volatility environment. We’re going back to normal and volatility will go back to at least normal. My expectation is to see higher volatility over the course of the next year… I don’t mind volatility,” he said. “From a client perspective it’s not fun to go through, but I think from a portfolio manager’s standpoint it actually gives us better ability to add value.”
In the fixed income arena, Michael Buchanan of Western Asset Management said, “We should continue to expect elevated fixed income volatility… One answer to what’s driving this increase in volatility is regulatory. Post-crisis, many firms – especially dealers and market makers – have been operating with a higher level of regulation, whether Volker Rule, Basel III, you name it. They’re operating defensively, with less inventory…the key point is that, especially given where valuations are now, you can take advantage of this opportunity. As much as it hurt in 2015, it’s likely to contribute to performance in 2016.”
“Global equity markets have really had quite a strong six years plus,” he said. “The things that had been very cheap six years ago have now gotten not cheap, and arguably maybe a little bit towards the upper end of normal. That’s sort of like a rubber band. When that rubber band is pulled tight, it’s much more sensitive to somebody pulling at it and vibrates a lot more… Three things we’re focusing on, that are going to drive a lot of the volatility but also a lot of opportunities because there’s a lot of dispersion, are: we are at fair valuations; investors are worried about growth going forward, but it’s going to be slow growth; and macro risks, since people are more sensitive to them when valuations are towards the higher end. Whether it’s China, oil, the U.S. Federal Reserve raising rates, people just become very concerned.”
“Because of that we’re seeing a lot of dispersion in individual country returns,” Norman said. “We’re also seeing a lot of dispersion in sector returns, so there are very large differences… All markets will see a high correlation but a very different magnitude of return,” he said.
In regards to China, Scotland mentioned “Philosophically, this is an economy where success has been measured by their ability to control the outcome. Moving forward, they really should be measured in terms of letting go.” Norman said. “China will be sort of a lumbering awkward teenager trying to figure it out. But at the end of the day, they will figure it out, because they have to. They’re also really a state-controlled economy and they will make it work – whatever it takes.”
When asked about oil, Buchanan said, “It’s tough to say near-term where oil is going… We strongly believe – and we think it’s a 2016 event – we’re going to print the bottom on oil, and that you will see a migration higher in terms of pricing… It’s just a matter of time before you start to see production come down in a meaningful way. At the same time, we do see demand continuing to grow. That supply-demand dynamic should go a ways towards addressing the imbalance.”
La Financière de l’Echiquier (LFDE) has been offering Swiss investors long-term savings solutions for more than 10 years. It currently manages EUR 250 million for a customer base in Switzerland of IFAs and private banks through a limited number of independent and conviction-driven active management funds (equities, fixed income and diversified). The company marks a new milestone in building long-term relations of proximity with Swiss customers. It has thus recently obtained the regulatory authorizations required to open its subsidiary that will be based in Geneva.
«This step opens up an important new chapter in our entrepreneurial development. I am proud and happy to be able to demonstrate by this strong measure our commitment to establishing a lasting presence in Switzerland based on direct contacts with investors», commented Didier Le Menestrel, Chairman of LFDE.
«After Italy and Germany, this new subsidiary highlights the strategic importance of the Swiss market in LFDE’s business development project. We believe that our value proposition is more than ever relevant for addressing the issues facing Swiss investors on an everyday basis. The presence of an office will allow us, in all humility, to better identify the needs of our customers and prospects in order to further improve the relevance of our solutions», added Dominique Carrel-Billiard, LFDE’s Chief Executive Officer.
Benjamin Canlorbe, who was appointed Country Manager Switzerland in September 2015, will manage the subsidiary. His mission will be to strengthen the brand’s local presence and develop assets under management in the French and German speaking areas of Switzerland.
For more than ten years, Benjamin Canlorbe has been developing LFDE’s presence in the segment of French wealth management advisors. With a Master’s degree in economics, Benjamin worked for three years for BNP Paribas’ Credit Risk department in the Netherlands and France. Joining LFDE in 2004, he was first tasked with monitoring and developing relations with wealth management advisors before becoming the customer relations manager for the independent financial planners’ segment.
Wikimedia CommonsFoto: Tangopaso . Crédit Agricole Private Banking se transforma en Indosuez Wealth Management
Crédit Agricole Private Banking, el brazo de gestión patrimonial de Crèdit Agricole, operará bajo la marca única Indosuez Wealth Management.
De acuerdo con un comunicado, la unificación de la marca, estrategia que empezó en 2012, tiene el objetivo de hacer llegar a todos sus clientes los valores de una entidad global, que cuenta con el respaldo de Crèdit Agricole como entidad financiera.
Jean-Yves Hocher, director general adjunto de Crédit Agricole, explica que «el negocio de Wealth Management está completamente en línea con el modelo de banca universal de Crèdit Agricole, centrado en el cliente». Por su parte, Christophe Gancel, director general de CA Indosuez Wealth, insistió en que «éste es un hito clave en el desarrollo de la empresa. Desde 2012 estamos comprometidos con una revisión importante de la organización con el fin de optimizar los recursos y mejorar nuestra oferta».
La oferta de la entidad se divide en tres áreas:
Structuring Wealth, para el negocio de gestión patrimonial de familias y empresas,
Investing Wealth, con soluciones de inversión en distintas clases de activos y
Banking and Beyond, más centrado en banca privada.
Hoy por hoy Indosuez Wealth Management tiene 30 oficinas en 14 países y activos bajo administración por 110.000 millones de euros.
According to Juan Nevado, Fund Manager at M&G, over the past weeks, negative sentiment triggered by China’s economic slowdown and continued declines in the oil price have driven a bear market across ‘risk’ assets such as equities and credit. «Investor pessimism has reached levels where some have begun to ask whether we are about to enter the next global recession. The M&G Multi Asset team’s base case at present is that, while there are very real risks in parts of emerging markets, this is unlikely to trigger a global recession. As such, we view markets movements in some areas at least as somewhat ‘episodic’ and are therefore watching carefully for potential opportunities to exploit,» Nevado says.
In summary, the team’s view is that:
Weighing the magnitude of the sell-off against the fundamental backdrop suggests to us that we are in an ‘episode’ in which market movements are being driven by fear, not facts. With valuations in some areas having been behaviourally driven to attractive levels, we believe this could present a chance to exploit compelling opportunities across selected risk assets. When it feels most uncomfortable to be buying assets is exactly the point at which we should be, one of the strongest indicators to us that we are in an Episode is that is feels so emotionally challenging to take it on.
Fundamentals in developed economies are strong enough that we have conviction that the West is not entering recession.
Areas such as Europe and Japan have been growing, but slowing a little and missing inflation targets. Therefore, we think policymakers in these areas are likely to be inclined towards further easing. We also think it’s plausible that the Federal Reserve will not seek to continue raising US interest rates in this environment, echoing the Bank of England’s statement this week that it will not raise rates for now. So central bankers are likely to remain in supportive stance.
There are genuine risks in China and other Asian/emerging markets to worry about.
However, even if Asia continues to weaken, we are unlikely to see a contagion effect developing into a global recession. A slowdown in China will not have the same impact at the aggregate global level as a similar slowdown in a major developed economy would.
The collapse in the oil price is partly fundamentally driven because OPEC are operating at maximum output. We still believe the boost this provides to consumers, businesses and oil-importing countries should be a net positive for the global economy.
Those predicting these two factors (Chinese slowdown and the oil price) will trigger a global recession need to provide better evidence and explanation of how this would happen to persuade us that they are right.
We do not believe there is much evidence for this. It is sentiment, not facts, driving the market sell-off. Investors are overly fearful, partly because the memory of 2008 still lingers, and when investors are in pessimistic mood, they will seek the negatives and ignore the positives in any situation.
In this context, when we see valuations cheapen so significantly in a relatively short period of time (six weeks in this case, perhaps not as clearly ‘episodic’ as August 2015 in terms of the speed, but certainly in terms of the magnitude) we start to look for opportunities to exploit.
With valuation as our guide, we are not forecasting the future, we are simply aiming to put the odds in our favour. The risk premium on growth assets has skyrocketed since November 2015 and this suggests to us potential opportunities on which to position for the most attractive prospective returns.
From February 2016, Robert Senz will be the new Head of the 20-strong cross-border Fixed Income team of Erste Asset Management. He will report directly to Gerold Permoser, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of EAM. The current Head, Alexander Fleischer, will take an educational leave at his own request.
Robert Senz has more than 25 years of experience in the fixed income area as well as a successful professional track record for example as Chief Investment Officer for bonds with Raiffeisen Capital Management. Gerold Permoser said «with Robert Senz we ensure the continuity of our successful active investment approach. Mr Senz has years of experience, he has received numerous awards, and is highly client-oriented. This will help us strengthen and further expand the already high degree of acceptance displayed by our clients and sales partners.”
“I am very much looking forward to this task, and I am convinced that I will continue the successful path together with the team of Erste Asset Management,” Rober Senz, concluded.
Foto: Giordano Lombardo, CEO and Group CIO of Pioneer Investments. Pioneer Investments alcanza un récord de más de 15.000 millones de euros en ventas netas en 2015
Pioneer Investments alcanzó en 2015 un récord de flujos de entrada de 15.200 millones de euros globalmente. Las ventas netas crecieron un 15% en tasa interanual y los activos bajo gestión se situaron en 224.000 millones de euros a finales de diciembre de 2015, una subida del 11% respecto a diciembre del año anterior, reflejando un impulso positivo a lo largo de todas las unidades de negocio. Pioneer Investments ha visto un crecimiento importante en Italia y Alemania, así como un impulso positivo en Asia y Latinoamérica.
De acuerdo a los datos de los flujos de fondos de Morningstar, la firma ocuparía la cuarta posición con sus estrategias multiactivo y la octava en el segmento de fondos alternativos a nivel global, gracias a las importantes entradas en las estrategias multi-activo e inversiones alternativas líquidas de Pioneer Investments. Estas clases de activo en crecimiento, complementan la gama de producto de renta fija y renta variable de Pioneer Investments, que han seguido contribuyendo a los resultados de la compañía en 2015.
“Es gratificante ver la continua confianza que nuestros clientes han depositado en nosotros. En el actual entorno de mercado caracterizado por la volatilidad, las condiciones de liquidez, las preocupaciones macro, la eficacia de las políticas monetarias, la visión para China y la trayectoria de las economías de los mercados emergentes, nosotros seguimos manteniendo un claro enfoque en la gestión”, afirmó Giordano Lombardo, consejero delegado y director de Inversiones del Grupo de Pioneer Investments.
“Seguimos comprometidos con la preservación del capital de nuestros clientes bajo nuestro enfoque de inversión testado eficazmente, con un exhaustivo sistema de gestión del riesgo que permite identificar oportunidades durante los períodos de debilidad del mercado, invirtiendo con un horizonte de largo plazo para nuestros clientes”, añadió.
A pesar de un escenario de bajos retornos y rentabilidades inferiores de las clases de activo tradicionales, Pioneer Investments ha continuado reforzando su gama de producto, ofreciendo soluciones de inversión innovadoras para sus clientes. Por ejemplo, la gama “Target Income” de Pioneer Investments, ha sido diseñada para facilitar a los inversores una renta, ha logrado atraer más de 10 mil millones de euros en menos de cuatro años desde su lanzamiento. En Renta Variable, las estrategias US Fundamental Growth y European Potenial, han sido también unas de las que más entradas han atraído. Por el lado de la Renta Fija, Pioneer Investments ha lanzado en 2015 una estrategia de bonos globales en función del peso del PIB mundial y una de Renta Fija Emergente a corto plazo.
Foto: B Rosen
. La desaceleración de los EM y los resultados corporativos encabezan la lista de preocupaciones de los advisors
La desaceleración de los mercados emergentes, los beneficios empresariales de las corporaciones estadounidenses y la desaceleración económica del país son las tres mayores preocupaciones de los investment managers, según la encuesta de Northern Trust del cuarto trimestre 2015. Menos managers que en el pasado apuestan por que la actividad económica y los beneficios empresariales se aceleren. Una tendencia que Christopher Vella, CIO, y Mark Meisel, SVP, ambos de Northern Trust Multi-Manager Investments, notaron que aparecía en el trimestre anterior. Un gran porcentaje de ellos espera que la actividad económica de Estados Unidos se mantenga estable, pero un pequeño -aunque creciente- grupo espera un período de desaceleración.
El estudio muestra que sólo el 21% de los managers considera infravaloradas las acciones estadounidenses -cayendo desde el 34% del trimestre anterior y el porcentaje más bajo desde que el estudio arrancara en el 3T de 2008. Los entrevistados consideran más atractiva la renta variable europea, que el 85% considera por debajo de su valoración -o en ella-. Creen que las mayores tendencias al alza las muestran las acciones de mercados desarrollados –ex US- y las de mercados emergentes, en segundo lugar. Por sectores, el de tecnologías de la información y el financiero son los que ocupan la primera y segunda posición en las previsiones alcistas.
Los resultados de la encuesta también muestran que dos tercios de los managers esperan poco o ningún impacto en los mercados mundiales de renta variable a raíz del aumento de tipos de interés por parte de la Fed; Sólo el 25% cree que si el precio del petróleo continua bajo un año tendría efectos negativos para el mercado de renta variable estadounidense; el 84% cree que la probabilidad de una recesión mundial debida a una desaceleración en los mercados emergentes está por debajo del 25%; Sólo el 23% de los encuestados espera un aumento de beneficios corporativos, el porcentaje más bajo desde el 1T 2009; el 64% espera que el crecimiento del PIB estadounidense no varíe, y sólo el 23% -frente al 48% del año pasado- espera que el PIB acelere; el 41% cree que la renta variable estadounidense está sobrevalorada, el mayor porcentaje desde que la encuesta comenzó en el tercer trimestre de 2008.
Foto: aehdeschaine. Legg Mason sigue creciendo: adquiere Clarion Partners, una minoría en Precidian Investments y combinará Permal con EnTrust Capital
Como ya adelantamos este mes, Legg Mason ha anunciado la adquisición de una participación mayoritaria en Clarion Partners, una gestora de inversiones diversificadas en real estate de Nueva York que gestiona aproximadamente 40.000 millones de dólares. Clarion Partners operará como la principal filial independiente de real estate de la marca y Steve Furnay, actual presidente y CEO de la firma, mantendrá su cargo.
Bajo los términos del acuerdo, Legg Mason adquirirá el 83% de las acciones de Clarion Partners por 585 millones. Además, el comprador deberá pagar unos 16 millones adiciones por su participaciones en ciertas co inversiones. El equipo directivo– que ha firmado contratos a largo plazo en la operación- se quedará con el 17% restante. El precio de la adquisición y el porcentaje podrían ser ajustados a la baja si el equipo de dirección decidiese ampliar su participación (nunca excediendo el 20%). El propietario anterior, Lightyear Capital, vende en la operación todas sus acciones. Las partes esperan hacer efectivo el acuerdo en el segundo trimestre de 2016.
La firma de real estate gestiona inversiones en varios segmentos: oficinas, locales comerciales, naves industriales, residencial y hoteles y su adquisición permitirá a Legg Mason ampliar su oferta de gestión de activos alternativos, en core portfolios, core-plus/value-add portfolios y carteras oportunistas.
Por otro lado, la gestora ha entrado con una participación minoritaria en el capital de Precidian Investments, una firma especializada en la creación de soluciones y productos innovadores y en la resolución de problemas en la estructura del mercado, especialmente en los mercados de ETF. En virtud de los términos de la operación, Legg Mason ha adquirido una nueva clase de acciones preferentes, que le confieren los derechos de un titular del 19,9% del capital ordinario, con la opción de adquirir una participación mayoritaria en este último. El resto de términos de la operación no han trascendido.
Por último, la firma formalizó esta semana el acuerdo definitivo para fusionar Permal, la actual plataforma de hedge funds de Legg Mason, con EnTrust Capital, una entidad independiente de hedge funds y gestora de inversiones alternativas con sede en Nueva York. Su patrimonio total ronda los 12.000 millones de dólares y cuenta con estrategias de inversión, una base de clientes y una composición de negocio complementarias al de Permal. De la fusión nacerá una nueva multinacional de inversión alternativa con más de 26.000 millones de dólares en activos gestionados y un patrimonio total de 29.000 millones de dólares.
Barings Investments, a firm specialized in providing financial services for agribusiness, M&A and Wealth Management in Latin America, has just launched its new office in Asuncion, due to the high demand which exists in Paraguay for specialized financial services.
Emerson Pieri, head of Latin America for Barings Investments, hired Carlos Avila, who will be heading the new office and developing the business in Paraguay. Carlos Avila previously worked for Credit Andorra Group’s Valores Casa de Bolsa, as private banking financial advisor dedicated to buying and selling stocks and bonds on Paraguay’s stock exchange.
Barings Investments is diversifying participation in various business areas, looking for new opportunities outside the agribusiness and WM sectors. The company’s first venture is to try to attract a group of financial institutions to Paraguay to invest in the infra-structure sector. The first meetings, which aim to capture about half a billion dollars to build toll roads and airports with public and private funding, took place during the second week of January. For the first time, local companies like BYB Construcciones, Ferrere Abogados and private investors will have the support of an international firm such as Barings Investments to bid for a PPP project.
Paraguay, with a population of 7 million people, is a country with a vast wealth of natural resources. The country is crossed by several rivers which make up the Rio de la Plata Basin, which provides hydroelectric power to the Itaipu and Yacyreta power plants which are shared with Brazil. Other key activities in the country include highly automated agriculture and livestock production.
The latest data published on activity in Paraguay could not be more favorable for promoting investment and business in the country. According to the World Bank, Paraguay rates higher than Brazil on the scale of ease of doing business. According to a study by Brazil’s National Confederation of Industry, labor is 21% cheaper in Paraguay than in Brazil and electricity is 64% cheaper. Foreign direct investment to Paraguay grew by 230% between 2013 and 2014, compared with a 2% drop in Brazil. Indeed, Paraguay stands out in a region where overall FDI fell 16% in 2014 and which is expected to fall by as much as 10% this year. The International Monetary Fund expects Paraguay to expand by 3.8% next year, while a growth of only 0.8% is expected in the rest of the region.
In 1997, Paraguay reviewed their industry views by offering incentives to foreign companies willing to assemble low-end factory goods for the world market. Given the country’s inclination to political turmoil, (the overthrow in 2012 of President Fernando Lugo didn’t help) investors were opposed at first, but the situation has changed with the recent political changes.
Since Horacio Cartes, a tobacco magnate, was elected president in 2013, promising to turn Paraguay into a stable democracy with an improved economy, the government’s fiscal responsibility is improving and the country’s debt remains stable. Prior to his election as president, Horacio Cartes endorsed a bill passing an income tax (until then Paraguay lacked this type of revenue collection) to pay for public services and control the underground economy.
