CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrJosé Antonio Llorente, de Llorente & Cuenca; Erich de la Fuente, fundador de EDF Communications, y Alejandro Romero, de Llorente & Cuenca. Foto: Business Wire. Llorente & Cuenca compra el 70% de la firma de Miami EDF Communications
Greenberg Traurig asesoró a Llorente & Cuenca, despacho de comunicación y relaciones públicas en España, Portugal y América Latina, en la adquisición del 70% de EDF Communications, una firma con sede en Miami.
Bajo los términos del acuerdo, EDF Communications se integrará a Llorente & Cuenca desde Miami. EDF Communications, que lleva operando en Estados Unidos y América Latina durante más de una década, tiene presencia en México, Colombia, Argentina, Chile, Brasil y Costa Rica. Los empleados de EDF Communications en América Latina también se integrarán a las operaciones Llorente & Cuenca en sus respectivos países. Tras la adquisición, Erich de la Fuente, fundador de EDF Communications, se convertirá en socio y director general de las operaciones de Estados Unidos de Llorente & Cuenca. Su sede será Miami.
Esta es la cuarta adquisición de Llorente & Cuenca luego de que el pasado mes de junio se anunciara la incorporación de la firma francesa de capital riesgo MBO. Esta adquisición es la primera de su tipo en los EE.UU. y refuerza aún más la posición de Llorente & Cuenca en los mercados de Estados Unidos y de América Latina, cuyos clientes se beneficiarán de una red de 11 oficinas en toda la región latinoamericana.
El equipo de Greenberg Traurig fue dirigido por Antonio Peña, accionista de la práctica en América Latina e Iberia, quien representa a un importante número de empresas españolas que invierten en los Estados Unidos y América Latina.
2050. A huge dam seals off the Inn Valley at Kufstein. Behind it, a reservoir containing millions of cubic metres of green, shimmery water. The Emperor Maximilian Dam is the crown jewel of a number of dams that line Greater Tyrol from Kufstein to the Andreas Hofer Dam at Rovereto and that are one of the pillars of prosperity in Europe in what has been the wealthiest country for years.
Tyrol was able to benefit more than others from the climate change, which had caused the temperature to rise by 4% annually. The biggest dam system in the world dwarfs the Three Gorges Dam in China and comes with one enormous upside on top: the water does not just pass through the dam, but it is recycled by a sophisticated system of pump accumulators. It is used whenever power is needed – and, in particular, paid for – in the big metropolitan areas of the hot lowlands outside the borders of Tyrol. Tyrol, with its third dimension, i.e. altitude, was practically destined to become the battery of Europe.
The numerous dams and the climate change made the second source of prosperity possible in the country: prime property. A large number of exquisite lakeside properties that allow filled purses to enjoy the pleasant temperatures in higher altitudes and to escape the heat of the lowlands. No surprise that many millionaires who used to frequent places like Monte Carlo or the palm islands of the nouveau-riches in the UAE love their life in Tyrol.
What sounds like the fifth and yet unpublished part of Felix Mitterer’s “Piefke Saga”* (i. e. an Austrian soap opera about Tyrol) is the extrapolation of two current developments: global warming and the way we deal with it. The climate change is now taken as scientific fact. Even optimists expect the earth to warm by at least two centigrade in the coming years.
This development will come with massive repercussions on us and our lifestyle. There will not only be winners, but also losers as described above. The development will not care about state or cultural borders, and it will probably also shift some of them. One day we will have climate refugees along with war and economic refugees at the borders of Europe and Austria.
From my point of view it is important to realise that we have to be prepared to compromise. Wind parks are not always pretty. Alternative forms of energy do not only have to be generated but also distributed, which requires new power lines.
This will on the one hand entail many, also economic, opportunities, which we at Erste Asset Management want to seize in our sustainable funds. On the other hand this also means that we will have to change. In Giuseppe Tomasi di Lampedusa’s famous book “The Leopard” the main protagonist comments on the political revolution that has Italy in its grip: “If we want everything to stay as it is, everything has to change.” I think that climate change will teach us a similar lesson, no matter how we handle it.
Column by Gerold Permoser, Chief investment Officer and Chief Sustainable Officer of Erste Asset Management
Today’s independent advisory firms are no longer solely driven by the talent of their founders and investment teams. Instead, they are growing enterprises focused on the talents of employees across multiple roles and disciplines, according to the 2015 InvestmentNews Compensation & Staffing Study, sponsored by Pershing. The study found that firms achieving the highest levels of performance are putting the attraction of top talent, motivation of employees and implementation of well-thought out plans near the top of their list of priorities.
According to the report, industry growth is changing the nature of firms. Advisor ownership used to define independence; however, today employee advisors now outnumber owner-advisors. This change amplifies the importance of developing career tracks, a workplace culture, nurturing talent and determining competitive positioning. As much as growth has created opportunity and brought a wave of hires, it does not seem to have affected compensation for most positions in the last two years. Salaries for employee advisors and other key positions remain virtually unchanged. The cumulative effect of growth has doubled the size of the typical firm in the industry over the last five years. The year 2014 brought 13.5% growth in revenues.
«Recruiting top talent and delivering exceptional services to your client is critical to success in today’s advisory landscape,» says Ben Harrison, managing director and head of business development and relationship management at Pershing Advisor Solutions. «Whether your firm is a super ensemble or a small RIA, implementing a business management strategy is fundamental. We are personally invested in helping our clients succeed and have uncovered key insights in this study to help them better engage investors, attract top talent and run their business more effectively.»
The report identified the following trends as drivers of the business management strategies of the most successful firms:
Growth and Prosperity
Firms of different sizes significantly differ in their approach to finding new clients. The largest firms turn to branding and marketing, while smaller firms rely on referrals and networking.
Employee advisors outnumber owners: Owners are no longer the only advisors that manage client relationships. Super ensembles have been building their employee teams for many years, and smaller ensembles and enterprise ensembles are now also following suit.
Size becoming a decisive advantage: Super ensembles and large firms hold the advantage in their ability to attract top talent and the largest client relationships. Because of their size, they have a more prominent presence in the marketplace and are typically located in the largest markets where there is also a proliferation of wealthy potential clients.
Salaries remain unchanged: While there has been a new wave of advisory hires, it has not translated into salary growth. Instead, the growth in compensation has been in the form of incentives rather than salaries.
Building a growth engine: Many advisors are focusing on the clients who will offer the most value and pay for the firm’s service offering.
Allianz GlobalInvestors (AllianzGI) announced the appointment of Irshaad Ahmad as head of institutional Europe. Based in London, he will assume business development and client servicing responsibility for all AllianzGI’s institutional clients in Europe and spearhead the company’s strategy to further develop its institutional business in key regional markets.
Ahmad, who will report to Tobias C. Pross, head of EMEA, will also chair the European Institutional Executive Committee and become a member of the European Executive Committee.
Commenting on the appointment, Tobias C. Pross said: “I am delighted that, in Irshaad, we have found a senior executive who combines extensive experience with a strong entrepreneurial mindset. I am certain that Irshaad will help further strengthen our institutional business across our key markets, driving best practice in client-centric advisory and service delivery throughout Europe.”
He joins AllianzGI from AXA Investment Managers, where he was head of UK & Nordics and CEO UK since 2011, leading retail and institutional sales as well as client service teams.
IMN announces its Crowdfunding & Marketplace Lending Forum for Real Estate on March 10-11, at the Marriott New York Downtown, NY. Following reports that real estate crowdfunding is set to jump to $2.5 Billion by the end of 2015, IMN’s conference aims to be a platform to learn more and capitalize on this exciting investing model.
With over 400 participants attending our inaugural Crowdfunding Forum, including 275+ Owners/Developers and RIAs/Financial Advisors, the organization returns to New York this year with brand new content featuring Owners and Developers speaking to other Owners and Developers as well as the excitement and energy of a new regulatory environment. The event program will focus on Regulation A+ after the recent passing of the rules as well as new sessions that look into fee structures and learning from failed platforms from those with the valuable lessons. The conference incorporates Shark Tanks and small group meetings in the form of luncheon asset class roundtables, to allow participants to discuss the issues most pertinent to their business.
A sample of property owners, financial advisors and RIAs already signed up to speak include: Arsenal Real Estate, ARX Urban Capital, Balboa Real Estate Group, Bazer Investment Group, Berkley Aqisitions, Brollklyn Standard Properties, Bruckal Group, Cedar Grove Capital, Envisage Properties, Hoboken Brownstone Company, Kaufman Jacobs, MHP Funds, Monroe capital, Pinpoint Equity Group, Real Wealth Network, Seven Two Partners, Synergy group, Vision Wise Capital.
Foto: Steve Jurvetson. Barclays vende una unidad de índices a Bloomberg
El pasado miércoles el banco británico Barclays acordó vender su negocio de índices construido alrededor de la unidad de ex Lehman Brothers a la estadounidense Bloomberg por cerca de 781 millones de dólares (520 millones de libras esterlinas).
La decisión se produce mientras Jes Staley, director general de Barclays, acelera enajenaciones no estratégicas y le dará a su banco una ganancia de 480 millones de libras.
La unidad llamada Barclays Risk Analytics and Index Solutions Ltd. (Brais) incorpora índices de referencia de Barclays, incluyendo la familia global de índices de Barclays. La transacción incluye la venta de la propiedad intelectual relevante en relación con la herramienta de análisis de cartera conocida como POINT. Barclays ha acordado continuar operando POINT por 18 meses adicionales con el fin de ayudar a los clientes durante la transición a otros proveedores, incluyendo a los productos PORT de Bloomberg.
La operación, sujeta a la aprobación antimonopolio, se espera que se cierre a mediados de 2016.
Al respecto, Jes Staley comentó que se encuentran muy contentos de asociarse «estrechamente con Bloomberg tras la finalización de la transacción, incluyendo el mantenimiento de un acuerdo de co-branding de los índices de referencia por un plazo inicial de cinco años«.
Durante 2008 Barclays combinó sus índices con los de la unidad norteamericana Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. para crear BRAIS.
Foto de Juan Agapito. ¿Es momento de favorecer los TIPS?
Un ligero crecimiento económico, aunado a un dólar fuerte y la caída en los precios energéticos han impulsado a la inflación a niveles históricamente bajos. Sin embargo, como Russ Koesterich, CFA, estratega en jefe de Inversiones Globales de BlackRock, explica, las expectativas de inflación futura pueden ser demasiado complacientes.
En los últimos años, las percepciones de los inversionistas sobre la economía estadounidense han cambiado dramáticamente. Tras varios años de crecimiento económico consistentemente decepcionante, pocos esperan un regreso a los niveles de crecimiento después de la Segunda Guerra Mundial.
En medio de una lenta recuperación económica, las expectativas de los inversores sobre la inflación también se han moderado, pero tal vez por demasiado. De hecho, las expectativas actuales para la inflación pueden ser demasiado complacientes, lo que crea una oportunidad potencial en Valores del Tesoro Protegidos contra la Inflación (TIPS por sus siglas en inglés).
Cambiando el enfoque a TIPS
Hace tres años, según los datos de Bloomberg, los inversores esperaban una inflación de alrededor de 2,5% durante la próxima década. Incluso el pasado verano, las expectativas de inflación a largo plazo eran de alrededor de 2,25%. Sin embargo, desde el verano, las expectativas de inflación se han derrumbado. Al 1 de diciembre, el punto de equilibrio de los TIPS a 10 años -una medida de las expectativas de los inversores sobre la inflación futura, estaba debajo del 1,6%. Si bien esto es nominalmente por encima del mínimo de varios años alcanzado a finales de septiembre, está aún muy por debajo del promedio a largo plazo de 10 años de alrededor del 2%.
El colapso de las expectativas de inflación de los inversores coincide con una recalibración similar entre los consumidores. Además de medir la confianza del consumidor, la Universidad de Michigan publica varios los estudios de expectativas de los consumidores para la inflación. La encuesta más reciente sugiere que las expectativas de inflación a un año son en el 2,7%, por debajo del 3% visto en marzo. La encuesta a 5 años sitúa las expectativas de inflación en 2,6%, apenas por encima del mínimo de varios años.
¿Por qué los inversores y los consumidores han bajado sus expectativas para la inflación de forma tan dramática? Mientras que la lenta recuperación ha sin duda contribuido, hay evidencia de que la caída en los precios del petróleo ha jugado un factor descomunal. Desde el máximo del verano pasado, el crudo de referencia en EEUU, el WTI ha caído en aproximadamente 55%, según Bloomberg.
Dado que los consumidores y los inversores están constantemente expuestos al precio de un galón de gasolina, que [En EEUU] es una función de los precios del crudo, la caída en el petróleo puede haber impactado desproporcionadamente las percepciones de la inflación. Desde el tercer trimestre de 2015, la caída del precio del petróleo explica aproximadamente el 80% de la variación en las expectativas de inflación a 10 años, según un análisis de BlackRock utilizando datos de Bloomberg.
En caso de que los precios del petróleo sigan colapsando, la inflación podría permanecer en los bajos niveles de hoy en día o inclusive hundise aún más. Sin embargo, hay una serie de signos de que la reciente caída en las expectativas de inflación puede ser exagerada.
Expectativas de Inflación subestimadas
En primer lugar, la inflación de Estados Unidos sin los precios de alimentos y energía, que son inherentemente inestables, ha sido mucho más estable que la cifra general. El índice de precios al consumidor (IPC), que excluye tanto los precios de alimentos y energía, presenta una lectura de 1,9% año con año, el nivel más alto desde junio de 2014, según los datos de Bloomberg.
Viendo esto desde una perspectiva económica también hay indicios deque las expectativas de inflación de hoy en día pueden ser demasiado bajas. «Mi indicador adelantado preferido -el Índice de Actividad Nacional de la Fed de Chicago (CFNAI), sugiere que las estimaciones actuales de inflación en Estados Unidos están aproximadamente 40 puntos básicos abajo», dice Koesterich.
«Si bien no anticipo un aumento significativo de la inflación en el corto plazo, yo sí espero ver una cierta estabilización de la inflación y las expectativas de inflación, debido a factores como la menor holgura en el mercado laboral. Además, la inflación de Estados Unidos debería recuperarse según el impacto transitorio de un dólar más fuerte y precios más bajos de energía comienzan a desaparecer de los cálculos del IPC. Mientras tanto, los precios de los TIPS hoy en día me dicen que las expectativas de inflación de los inversores pueden ser demasiado optimistas. Como tal, en las carteras de bonos, prefiero TIPS sobre bonos del Tesoro simples. Una asignación de TIPS podría ayudar a cubrir el riesgo de que la inflación podría estar en aumento«, concluye el directivo. _______________________________________________________________ Este material es para fines educativos únicamente y no constituye asesoría de inversión, ni oferta ni invitación para comprar o vender valores en jurisdicción alguna (o a persona) donde dicha oferta, invitación, compra o venta sea ilegal conforme a las leyes de valores de dicha jurisdicción. Si algunos valores o fondos están referenciados o inferidos en este material, dichos valores o fondos puede ser no registrados ante los reguladores del mercado de valores de cualquier país en Latinoamérica y Ibérico, y por tanto, dichos valores no puedan ser objeto de oferta pública dentro del territorio de dichos países. La veracidad de la información contenida en este material no ha sido confirmada por el regulador del mercado de valores de ningún país dentro de Latinoamérica y Iberia.
After more than nine years, on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve of the United Stated made true to its promise of raising interest rates in 25 basis points moving from near zero to the range of between 0.25-0.5%. It also stated it would not shrink its balance sheet until rate normalisation was ‘well under way’. Though policy remains extraordinarily accommodative, this is the first small step toward interest rate normalization since the financial crisis.
Markets took the Fed’s hike very much in their stride. 2-year yields rose by 2 basis points to 1.00%, but 10-year yields were a touch softer at 2.29% at the time of writing. The dollar inched higher against the euro, yen and on the Bloomberg DXY basket. While stocks reacted to the message of the Fed’s confidence in the economy the S&P 500 index rose 1% to 2074.
What will happen next? The Fed continues to project an expectation of four rate hikes next year, describing these as gradual, with no fundamental shift in its other economic projections to signify a more dovish outlook than in September. But, according to David Page, Senior Economist at AXA Investment Managers (AXA IM), this means that «the Fed failed to deliver a ‘dovish hike’. We continue to expect a tightening in financial conditions to lead the Fed to deliver just three hikes next year. Yet financial markets took today’s move in its stride, with little today deviating from broad expectatios…we consider the likelihood that the Fed has seen insufficient evidence of inflation pressures to justify a move in March and we forecast the next move in June.»
Goldman Sachs Asset Management said that they think the Fed’s action amounts to a cautious hike, and that «based on current forecasts, we believe the trajectory of interest rates will be shallow. Given the positive trends in the US labor market, we expect the Fed’s main focus in the coming months will be on inflation, financial conditions—particularly dollar strength—and economic growth.» They also expect three hikes in 2016 but «We believe the Fed could raise interest rates again in March if inflation rises and financial conditions stabilize. Our current expectation is for an additional three increases in 2016, but the path remains uncertain.» They cited that the dollar’s strength was among the key factors—along with broader financial conditions and weak external demand—in the Fed’s decision to postpone tightening in both June and September this year.
In regards to the Fed’s announcement of a modification of its balance sheet policy -suggesting that it would not stop or taper reinvestment of maturing Quantitative Easing (QE) assets until normalisation was ‘well under way’ (previously it had simply said this would start after lift-off), Page commented that » this was a clarification that we had long anticipated and echoed a similar recent statement by the Bank of England.»
Fed Chair Yellen’s press conference did little to overtly suggest a more dovish assessment. She was questioned on the inflation outlook and repeated that actual progress was required, but refused to be pinned down on any metric or timeframe of such an assessment. She highlighted the FOMC’s assessment that risks were balanced. The Fed Chair provided the Fed’s justification for a hike, which having fulfilled the conditions posed by the Fed was broadly to avoid the risk of the need for a future abrupt tightening, which she said might increase the chances of prompting recession. She also emphasised that the Fed’s policy outlook was for an expectation of gradual tightening and one that would likely not be even-paced.
Economic forecasts saw little change:
the median estimate of Q4 year on year GDP was nudged higher to 2.4% from 2.3% in 2016, but were otherwise unchanged;
unemployment was forecast marginally lower at 4.7% from 2016 onwards (from 4.8%);
and headline and ‘core’ personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation was forecast marginally lower to 1.6% (from 1.7%) in 2016, but was otherwise unchanged.
Longer run estimates of the these factors were unchanged.
Moreover, the Fed saw little adjustment in the median estimate of future rates, although some of the higher forecasts were lowered.
GSAM agrees saying that they «do not believe this modest policy adjustment is likely to derail a US recovery that has momentum. As a result, we remain pro-cyclical in our investment outlook, with equities remaining our favored asset class at this stage of the cycle.» Although their growth expectations are slightly lower, moderating from 2.4% this year to 2.2% in 2016.»
«In emerging markets, we think commodity prices, Chinese growth and local fundamentals are more important than Fed policy. Markets have had a long time to adjust to the prospect of higher US rates and we believe emerging market assets have largely priced in a modest course of Fed tightening. As a result, we continue to believe emerging market assets will be driven primarily by local fundamentals,» concluded GSAM.
Robert C. Serenbetz, analyst on the CIO Americas Team in Private Banking Americas at Credit Suisse, shares his outlook for Latin America, which continues to be negative as industrial production momentum falls.
Industrial production continues its declining trend likely leading to lower output and growth.
CDS spreads on Brazilian debt have risen considerably this year; however, the cost of protection has fallen recently as some steps have been taken to address economic reforms.
Rising inflation along with increasing unemployment and some painful tax hikes are placing a large portion of the Brazilian population in an increasingly disparate position. Simultaneously, these same factors are hurting corporate expectations.
According to the BofA Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey for December, a majority (58 percent) of global investors expect the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise rates three times or more in the coming 12 months.
The survey where an overall total of 215 panelists with US$620 billion of assets under management participated in from December 4 to December 10, 2015 noted that:
More than half of the panel (53 percent) says long U.S. dollar is the “most crowded trade,” up from 32 percent in November.
Thirty-five percent say the end of the Fed hiking cycle is the event most likely to end the U.S. dollar bull market.
Risk-taking fell. Cash rose to 5.2 percent of portfolios from 4.9 percent last month.
A net 43 percent of regional fund managers expect China’s economy to weaken in 2016, up from a net 4 percent last month.
Weighted average GDP growth projections for China in 2018 have fallen to 5.5 percent from November’s 5.9 percent.
A net 29 percent of asset allocators are underweight commodities, up from a net 23 percent in November.
As investors increase U.S. equities underweights, Europe and Japan are most favored regions for overweights in 2016.
Investors emphasized a focus on quality, with a net 65 percent saying that high-quality earnings stocks will outperform low-quality earnings stocks in 2016.
“The strong dollar view is writ large across all asset, regional and sector allocations. It will take a very dovish Fed and weak U.S. earnings to reverse the strong dollar view in 2016,” said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research.
“European equities remain in favor despite disappointment over the ECB decision,” said James Barty, head of European equity strategy.
A total of 175 managers, managing US$517 billion, participated in the global survey. A total of 106 managers, managing US$241 billion, participated in the regional surveys.
You can read the full results in the following link.
