The delayed IMF repayment of Greece increases the likelihood of a default, according to new analysis from Diego Iscaro, Senior Economist at IHS Global Insight.
The Greece payment delay adds a new layer of uncertainty to an already very uncertain situation. Alexis Tsipras’ government is in a difficult position. Greece’s cash reserves are running thin and it will default without further official funds. However, it is also fighting increasing opposition, particularly from the left of the Syriza party, to making significant concession to the creditors.
Tsipras will need some concessions by creditors on key items to win over critics in his own party: either by dropping requirements to increase VAT or by scrapping benefits for low pensions, together with some gesture in terms of debt relief.
“If creditors do not concede on either of these, then default risks would increase rapidly. However, this is unlikely as Greece’s European counterparts are highly reluctant to see Greece default. Germany’s chancellor Angela Merkel especially will push for a higher degree of leniency towards Greece than other EU members”, point out Iscaro.
Merkel currently benefits from increased room to manoeuvre through Greece due to the implosion of the German Eurosceptic party (Alternative für Deutschland: AfD). The AfD owed its existence and recent electoral successes to discontent in Germany over successive bailouts for Greece. However, for several months, the party has been experiencing infighting between a far-right anti-immigrant wing and a more liberal Eurosceptic wing. As a result, they pose a much-reduced threat to Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union of Germany (Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands: CDU), which, in turn, gives Merkel more freedom to make concessions to Tsipras, analized the Senior Economist at IHS Global Insight.
“If creditors only offer minimal improvements, Tsipras is likely to negotiate for as long as he can, and then eventually accept what is offered; in this case, he would have to resort to support from other parties to approve such a deal in Parliament, as the left wing of Syriza would probably vote against it. Tsipras is likely try to engineer a national unity moment in Parliament to vote on the deal with creditors. A switch to a lasting coalition with centrist parties or a definite split within Syriza is unlikely, as party unity remains a high-priority goal for Tsipras”, said.
Elections would take at least 21 days to prepare
In case of only minimal concessions from creditors, the likelihood of early elections and a referendum on the deal would increase, as Syriza and Tsipras claim not to have a mandate to basically continue austerity as under previous governments, believes Iscaro. Calling elections would take at least 21 days to prepare, so the window to hold polls before the end of June (in order to vote and still be able to avert default) is closing fast: either it takes place over the next four days or it is no longer possible.
In any case, said Iscaro, time to reach a deal is running out. Although the next «hard» deadline is the end of June, when the IMF loans will have to be paid, both parties will have to reach an agreement before that date, as a deal will have to be approved by several Eurozone parliaments.
“As long as Greece and its creditors continue to negotiate, IHS does not expect the ECB to cut liquidity assistance to Greek banks, currently given via emergency liquidity assistance (ELA), as a result of yesterday’s decision. However, the ECB is likely to stop its support if Greece enters a default or if hopes of a deal completely disappear. Under that scenario, the Greek economy would suffer from a significant credit crunch, increasing the probability of capital controls and, eventually, an exit from the Eurozone”, concluded.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrFoto: Aloud. Fitch baja el tono de las expectativas para las empresas mexicanas y repasa la situación de su sector bancario
Fitch ha publicado esta semana el informe «Actualización de las perspectivas de rating para el sector corporativo mexicano», que analiza el cambio de sesgo en la calificación crediticia de las empresas del país. Tras conocer los resultados del primer trimestre, Fitch estima ahora que las previsiones han empeorado y rebaja de positivas a negativas las perspectivas de rating. En su análisis, la firma destaca diversos factores a tener en cuenta en el futuro que podrían afectar a la calidad del crédito.
«Las perspectivas siguen siendo estables, pero desde septiembre el sesgo ha cambiado de positivo a negativo», explicó Sergio Rodríguez, senior director y co-director de la división en México de Fitch.
A 15 de mayo de 2015, el 86% de los emisores tienen perspectivas estables, el 5% positiva y el 9% negativa. El aumento de los procesos de fusiones y adquisiciones ha presionado las calificaciones, ya que la gran mayoría de las adquisiciones se han financiado con deuda, explica la agencia de calificación crediticia en el informe.
Menos demanda de crédito bancario
Continuando su análisis sobre México, Fitch cree que el crecimiento más lento de los préstamos en un contexto de ralentización de las condiciones económicas está contribuyendo a modestas mejoras en las posiciones de capital de los grandes bancos del país.
La media de ratios de capital de los siete bancos más grandes de México, que incluyen a Banamex, BBVA Bancomer, Santander México, Banorte, Banco Inbursa, HSBC y Scotiabank México, ha mejorado en los últimos 15 meses, incluso pese a que la desaceleración de la economía ha reducido la demanda de crédito de los clientes corporativos y al por menor.
Este crecimiento más lento de los préstamos se compensa con los buenos precios de los préstamos, los bajos costes de financiación y los ingresos por comisiones. “Los márgenes de interés netos siguen siendo buenos, lo que respalda la fortaleza de los beneficios que están contribuyendo a la mejora de los ratios de capital”, afirma Fitch.
KBL European Private Bankers (KBL epb), headquartered in Luxembourg, announced the successful closing of the acquisition of the operations of UBS Belgium, which have been integrated into Puilaetco Dewaay Private Bankers, KBL epb’s Brussels-headquartered affiliate.
The acquisition, which has received the approval of the European Central Bank, adds substantial scale to Puilaetco Dewaay, strengthening its domestic franchise and positioning it as a top three pure-play private bank in Belgium.
Following closing, Puilaetco Dewaay – which was founded in 1868 and operates in eight cities in Belgium – now counts over 250 staff, who manages more than €10 billion in assets on behalf of some 10,000 clients.
Those clients now benefit from expanded advisory services, as well as access to the products, services and expertise of KBL epb, whose long-term development strategy targets organic, semi-organic and external growth.
“Today, as we close this important transaction, we are opening new doors of opportunity for the clients and staff of Puilaetco Dewaay,” said Yves Stein, Group CEO, KBL epb. “As we strive to be recognized as a trusted partner and leading private bank everywhere we operate, KBL epb continues to actively review additional acquisition opportunities in our core markets, and will seize them when conditions are right.”
“We are extremely pleased to have efficiently closed this transaction, thanks to the tremendous efforts of so many of our people, who demonstrated their full commitment to a seamless client experience,” said Thierry Smets, CEO, Puilaetco Dewaay Private Bankers. “At a time when the European private banking sector is in the midst of ongoing consolidation, we now benefit from greater size, scale and reach,” he said. “As a consequence, Puilaetco Dewaay is more strongly positioned for sustained future growth than at any time in our 150-year history.”
Mr. Smets highlighted that former UBS Belgium staff have been integrated into
Puilaetco Dewaay across every level of the organization – including the Executive Committee. That senior decision-making body has been expanded to include Ludivine Pilate, who joins as Chief Operating Officer, and Gregory Christians, who has assumed the role of Chief Investment Officer.
Ms. Pilate and Mr. Christians join existing members Mr. Smets, Sabine Caudron and Amaury de Laet to form the new Executive Committee of Puilaetco Dewaay.
Tennis champion Andy Murray announced yesterday that he has entered a long-term partnership arrangement with Seedrs, the London-based equity crowdfunding platform.
The arrangement will see Andy joining the Seedrs Advisory Board to provide advice to the firm with respect to businesses working in the health, sport and wearable technology spaces. Andy will not be offering advice to individual investors or recommending specific campaigns.
He will also be investing regularly in startups and other early-stage businesses through Seedrs and helping Seedrs to grow its brand in the UK and internationally.
Equity crowdfunding is revolutionising the way startups and other early-stage businesses are being funded. It involves the raising of funds by obtaining many small investments from a large number of people through online platforms.
This form of business fundraising is proving increasingly popular, and it allows businesses not only to obtain the capital they need but also to build a community of supportive investors who can help them grow.
The equity crowdfunding market is growing quickly. Since its launch in July 2012, Seedrs has reported 15% month-on-month growth, and within the next few years it expects to be funding hundred of millions of pounds into thousands of businesses each year.
This partnership represents the first time a major public figure has teamed up with an equity crowdfunding platform in this way, and it heralds a significant milestone in the development of the equity crowdfunding industry.
Andy Murray shared his perspective: “I’ve always been interested in investment, and being able to get involved in an innovative way to help support British startups really appealed to me. Equally as important was working with people I trusted and who fully understood the huge responsibility of handling people’s money. I’m looking forward to working with Seedrs and the entrepreneurs of tomorrow.”
Matt Gentry, who runs Andy’s management company, 77, added: “Andy is a keen investor, with his own management agency alongside a property portfolio, which includes a hotel. Crowdfunding is a space we’ve been looking at for a while, to complement his business interests, and he’s excited about being able to help startup businesses and entrepreneurs in the UK. Andy’s been lucky enough to have support from sponsors throughout his career, not only helping to aid him and his team financially, but also adding valuable mentoring in many cases. For him the opportunity to give something back to help to up and coming business men and women was very appealing.”
Jeff Lynn, CEO and co-founder of Seedrs, celebrated the announcement as follows: “Andy Murray is the perfect partner for Seedrs as we drive our growth to the next level. In many ways, he represents the exact combination of qualities that entrepreneurs need to be successful: determination, focus, integrity and skill. We are particularly looking forward to working with him as a member of our Advisory Board: we believe he can bring a different perspective into certain aspects of the early-stage business community in the health, sport and wearable technology spaces, and we look forward to his input and support.”
Lord Young of Graffham, the Prime Minister’s former Enterprise Adviser and a long-time champion of equity crowdfunding, said this about the announcement: “Both modern tennis and equity crowdfunding have their origins in Britain, and Andy Murray and Seedrs are world-leaders in their respective fields. It is wonderful to see the two coming together in this unique partnership, and I believe the outcome of it will be to see more great British businesses raising the capital they need, and more investors having the chance to be part of those businesses.”
Foto: Jimmy Baikovicius
. Standard & Poor's eleva la calificación de la deuda soberana de Uruguay
Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services elevó el viernes pasado la calificación de la deuda soberana en moneda extranjera y en moneda local de largo plazo a ‘BBB’ desde ‘BBB-’ y de corto plazo a ‘A-2’ desde ‘A-3’ de la República Oriental de Uruguay. La tendencia es estable.
La agencia considera que la administración recientemente electa del Presidente Tabaré Vázquez dará continuidad a la trayectoria de prudente política macroeconómica en el país, a la gradual diversificación de la economía y a un prudente manejo de la deuda. Por otro lado, los expertos de S&P consideran que los riesgos regionales para Uruguay se han estabilizado y mejorarán en el próximo año.
La gradual diversificación de la economía uruguaya ha contribuido en los últimos años a un elevado crecimiento económico y le ha permitido sortear la desaceleración de las economías de la región. Los altos niveles de inversión extranjera directa (IED) contribuyeron al mayor crecimiento del PBI, a la diversificación económica y a aumentos en la productividad. Aunque se espera que el ajuste fiscal interno y las economías en contracción de Argentina y Brasil mantengan el crecimiento uruguayo por debajo de 3% este y el próximo año, no se prevén marcados riesgos a la baja.
La mejora significativa en la posición externa de Uruguay durante la última década respalda la estabilidad del país. Las proyecciones de S&P contemplan que Uruguay tenga una posición de acreedor externo neto en sentido estricto de 24% de sus ingresos de la cuenta corriente en 2015. La IED ha superado de manera consistente su déficit de cuenta corriente, conteniendo la deuda externa del país. La fuerte IED también ha contribuido a la acumulación de reservas internacionales que alcanzaron US$17,000 millones al cierre de 2014, o 32% del PBI.
La agencia explicó que “la tendencia estable» se basa en su expectativa de continuidad en las principales políticas económicas durante los próximos tres años. La combinación de prudentes políticas fiscales junto con mayores inversiones podrían acelerar el crecimiento del PBI, lo que gradualmente daría como resultado un menor nivel de deuda y una mayor diversificación económica. Un menor nivel de dolarización en el sistema bancario (la proporción de créditos y depósitos denominados en dólares), junto con una inflación persistentemente menor aumentaría la efectividad de su política monetaria. Un nivel de deuda cada vez menor, junto con una mejora en la flexibilidad fiscal y monetaria podría derivar en una calificación más alta.
“Por el contrario, podríamos bajar la calificación si observamos un debilitamiento del compromiso con las políticas fiscal y monetaria que sustentan la estabilidad económica, dando como resultado una mayor vulnerabilidad externa. De manera similar, una respuesta inadecuada o inoportuna del gobierno a eventos negativos externos podría reducir la liquidez externa del país y elevar su nivel de deuda, lo que podría llevarnos a bajar la calificación soberana” concluye la nota.
Pixabay CC0 Public DomainCarinaHofi. Momentum adecuado para invertir en Cocos
Since 2006, La Française has implemented a governance structure based on an Executive Board and a Supervisory Board. In order to meet the strictest governance requirements, La Française is opening its Supervisory Board to two independent specialists of the property and financial sector.
Jean-Baptiste de Franssu and Philippe Marini now form part of the La Française Supervisory Board, joining forces with André Halipré, Vice Chairman of the Crédit Mutuel Nord Europe Federation, and Eric Charpentier, Chief Executive Officer of Crédit Mutuel Nord Europe.
Philippe Marini is the Mayor of Compiègne, President of the Greater Compiègne urban community (ARC) and President of the Syndicat Mixte de la Vallée de l’Oise (SMVO, Joint Union of the Oise Valley). He has served on the Gimar et Cie Supervisory Board since 1999 and became Chairman of their Management Board on 8 January 2015.
Jean-Baptiste de Franssu is the Chairman of INCIPIT, a Mergers & Acquisitions advisory and consulting firm which he founded in 2011. He is non-executive director of ACOFI SCA, Petercam S.A. and Tages LLP. He has been President of the Istituto per le Opere di Religione (IOR) since July 2014.
Foto: Sagrario Gallego, Flickr, Creative Commons. La mitad de los españoles suscribiría un plan de pensiones si su empresa se lo ofreciese
Bajo los términos del acuerdo, Aegon ha adquirido el 25% de La Banque Postale Asset Management por la cifra de 112,5 millones de euros. LBPAM es la quinta mayor gestora de fondos en Francia, con aproximadamente 150.000 millones de euros bajo gestión.
«Estoy encantado de que Aegon hay llegado a un acuerdo con La Banque Postale», declaró Alex Wynaendts, CEO de Aegon. «Uniendo la experiencia de inversión global de Aegon y la extensa red de distribución de La Banque Postale, este acuerdo estratégico en gestión de activos abre una enorme oportunidad de mercado. Nos permitirá ayudar a nuevos clientes en Francia a asegurar su futuro financiero a través de soluciones de inversión a largo plazo”
La creación de una alianza estratégica con La Banque Postale responde a la ambición de Aegon de crecer, diversificar su base de clientes y ofrecer productos de capital basados en fees. También representa un paso importante en la implementación de la estrategia de Aegon Asset Management de expandir sus servicios y soluciones para clientes de terceros internacionalmente.
Las dos compañías trabajarán para fortalecer el desarrollo de LBPAM, que ofrecerá un extensivo rango de productos, que incluyen renta variable internacional y productos de inversión multi-activo. Éstos serán distribuidos a través de la red de cerca de 17.000 puntos de venta de La Banque Postale, online y a través de sus equipos de ventas institucionales.
For the last 10 years, Ivan Bouillot has been managing the European equities fund BL-Equities Europe. Let’s find out more about how fund manager Ivan Bouillot achieves this.
What are the specific characteristics of the BL-Equities Europe fund?
The strategy is concentrated on around 40 shares, which is small compared to other funds in the same category. They represent our strong investment convictions, both in terms of each share’s potential appreciation and the quality of the company.
Why the 40-share limit?
So we don’t spread ourselves too thinly and so we can follow each of our investments very closely. These 40 shares are selected from a universe that is itself limited and very stable over time, comprising around 150 shares altogether. This means we don’t have to constantly search through several thousand listed companies. From this sample of 150 stocks, we select those with the share prices we feel are attractive.
How do you select the companies?
Our selection is based on our criteria of quality and understanding the business. We satisfy ourselves that the product or service offered by the company is different to that offered by its competitors. We avoid companies that do not offer added value as they are likely to operate in more competitive markets, usually have lower profit margins, and make a loss at the slightest hint of economic slowdown. In situations like these, the management and board of directors of these types of companies tend to waste a lot of time resolving all sorts of problems. Our preferred companies are those that have some protection against the advent of new competitors: for example ones with a brand in the consumer sector, specific know-how in manufacturing or a therapeutic specialisation in pharmaceuticals. We call these barriers to entry. We also like companies with the capacity to increase their dividends year-on-year as part of a policy of profit distribution to shareholders. Good examples are SKF in industrials and Unilever in foods. In addition, our investment choices are made with a 3 to 5 year horizon in order to take some of the markets’ day-to-day ups and downs out of the equation.
What other selection criteria do you use?
The fund aims to focus more on capital growth than yield. So we do not include companies with inherently low business growth, such as telecoms operators and utilities. We also steer clear of sectors or companies that are difficult to understand. And generally, we tend to favour manufacturers or intermediaries which supply high-added-value solutions over companies that sell their products directly to the end consumer, as the former are more profitable and less capital intensive. In the automotive sector, for example, we prefer to buy shares in a high-performance brake manufacturer, like the Italian company Brembo, rather than in the car manufacturer itself.
According to The Third Annual Study of Advisory Success: Confidence and Concern in the New Digital Age, released this week at Pershing’s INSITE™ 2015 conference, advisors are fairly evenly divided between viewing digital advisors, also known as robo-advisors, as competition or irrelevant to their business. Perhaps most surprising in the research was that only 19 percent of advisors think digital advice can complement their practice.
«There is no question that digital platforms are transforming the industry,» says Ben Harrison, head of business development and relationship management at Pershing Advisor Solutions. «Though most advisors are familiar with digital advice, a relatively small percentage of advisors are currently using this technology. The biggest opportunity we see for transformation is for advisors to automate low-value tasks, expand their reach and profitability.»
The survey also found that just over a quarter of advisors surveyed (27 percent) believe digital advice is irrelevant to their practice; while nearly another quarter (23 percent) feel that digital advice represents competition. By means of comparison, one-third (33 percent) of the advisors ages 18-34 consider digital advice to be competition, and only nine percent think they can complement their business. Comparatively, 27 percent of advisors between the ages of 35-54 view digital advice as competition, while only 16 percent of advisors over the age of 55 view them as competition
In general, price was cited by respondents as one of the most threatening factors of digital online financial providers. More than three quarters of advisors surveyed say the low cost of digital advice will pose some sort of threat to their practice. This data is underscored by the finding of a different study that found more than half of investors surveyed agreed that the investment advice most financial advisors offer is not worth the one percent fee.
«It is short-sighted to limit the ways technology can complement a business to only digital advice,» said Kim Dellarocca, managing director at Pershing. «Digital advice is important, but it is only one area where a firm needs to evolve their technology strategy to deliver a wealth management experience that mirrors the expectations of today’s consumers and workforce.»
The study suggests action steps for advisors to transform digital innovations into drivers of positive change and business growth, including:
Plan your approach to technology adoption. Advisors should understand where they sit on the digital spectrum and create a plan for where they want to be. Most begin by automating repetitive or low-value- tasks in their business. Once implemented, only then should they systematically work towards adopting increasingly sophisticated tools.
Make high-touch practices even more efficientand more personal. Digital tools, like those that automate client communications can help preserve the «high touch» experience many advisors are known for, but in a more efficient and more personal way that is customized to clients’ specific interests.
Improve your profitability and technology appeal. By automating key tasks that support the delivery of wealth management services, advisors can increase their margins and productivity. Advisors can use that gained time and resources to focus on higher valued activities like service delivery and more in-depth financial planning. Infusing technology into your business with greater self-service tools and more automation, not only adds to profitability, but creates a more modern feeling for client communications and interactions that today’s tech savvy investors crave.
Articulate your value. As investors and advisors both respond to digital advice trends, it is more important than ever for advisors to educate their clients about the work they do on their behalf– and the distinct value and wisdom the advisor offers in relationship to the fees they charge.
Be realistic about focus of the practice. If advisors have an appetite for tech-enabled growth, they should invest time and money in the latest capabilities. If not, their focus should shift towards financial planning or serving wealthy or hands-off investors.
Foto: Tony Hall
. Cinco elementos financieros de mejora para las PYMES chilenas
Banco Santander presenta bajo el título “Pymes: importancia estratégica e ideas para su desarrollo” los resultados de un análisis que estudia la importancia de las pequeñas y medianas empresas tanto para la economía local como internacional y aborda los factores que las distinguen, así como los desafíos financieros y regulatorios a los que deben hacer frente.
Según Pablo Correa, economista jefe y gerente de la División de Comunicaciones, Estudios y Políticas Públicas de Santander, “a través de este trabajo, hemos identificado cinco elementos que podrían aliviar diversos problemas a los que se enfrentan hoy este tipo de empresas y que requieren del esfuerzo de los distintos actores, tanto del sector público como privado”.
Uno de los grandes problemas a los que se enfrenta la banca tradicional en el momento de asignar el riesgo de sus clientes es la falta de información. Por eso, en la medida en que se reduzcan las asimetrías de información habrá también un menor coste del crédito para personas y empresas.
En segundo lugar, si bien existe una oferta razonable de financiación a corto plazo para las Pymes, aún existen ciertos tipos de crédito que no han sido muy desarrollados. Por ello, el banco propone desarrollar alternativas de financiación en UF a medio plazo y en pesos para operaciones de montos mayores.
Los resultados del estudio invitan a pensar que es necesario un marco regulatorio adecuado para productos e instituciones que avanzar en la eliminación de asimetrías regulatorias entre distintos vehículos de financiación y a la vez permitir el apoyo de actividades no tradicionales.
En relación al estímulo público a las Pymes, los autores del estudio aconsejan avanzar en la unificación de las instituciones encargadas de la administración de garantías públicas y en la difusión de programas de cobertura (no solo cambiaria), además de procurar una mayor simplificación de procedimientos administrativos. De esta manera se evitarían errores de interpretación en el momento de hacer efectivas las garantías. Asimismo, debería haber un plan especial para situaciones de catástrofe.
El quinto elemento apunta directamente a las microfinanzas, alegando que se debe definir un supervisor y marco regulatorio para las muchas instituciones que otorgan servicios financieros a personas que por sus características no tendrían otras fuentes de financiamiento.
Según concluye el estudio algunas de estas alternativas podrían ser implementadas con pocos costes y de manera inmediata por parte de las autoridades, lo que implicaría así mejoras significativas en los costes de financiación.
El documento incluye, además, un completo análisis sobre qué son y qué representan las Pymes, un repaso a los servicios financieros y no financieros a los que tienen acceso y el nuevo escenario regulatorio en el que se desenvuelven.
Pablo Correa, señaló que “las Pymes son un aporte muy importante para el dinamismo empresarial, contribuyendo con el 46% de la producción del país y generando el 58% del empleo total”. Y por su relevancia y sus particulares características y desafíos -como la entrada en vigor de la reforma tributaria y los potenciales alcances de la reforma laboral- es “sumamente necesario conocerlas en profundidad, porque, desde el punto de vista de las políticas públicas, esto permite focalizar mejor las políticas de desarrollo y elaborar diseños más eficientes para su fomento”, enfatizó.
Con todo, Correa afirmó que “estas empresas hacen frente a una serie de desafíos que van más allá de los aspectos financieros. Por ello, es importante que también tengan acceso a capacitaciones de dirección o para el manejo de nuevas tecnologías, entre otros. Estos elementos permitirán asegurar la supervivencia de las Pymes”. Por último, el economista jefe recordó que “la actual coyuntura económica y regulatoria ofrece a este tipo de empresas diversas oportunidades que es útil saber distinguir”.
