S&P Dow Jones Indices announced the launch of the S&P Brazil Sector Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Weighted Index. The Index is designed to measure the largest and most liquid stocks listed on the BM&F Bovespa weighted proportionately to the published Brazilian sector GDP figures.
«Brazil’s equity market is highly concentrated in financial services and natural resource companies, thus traditional market capitalization weighted equity indices are not representative of the Brazilian economy,» says Michael Orzano, Director of Global Equity Indices at S&P Dow Jones Indices.
«By weighting the constituents according to their GDP sector weights, the S&P Brazil Sector GDP Weighted Index provides investors with a transparent benchmark that reflects the growing, dynamic industries underrepresented in market cap weighted indices.»
The underlying universe for the S&P Brazil Sector GDP Weighted Index is all stocks from the S&P Brazil Broad Market Index (BMI). The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS®) sector for each of the 100 unique companies is mapped to the following Brazilian GDP sectors: Agriculture, Industrials, Financial Services and Non-Financial Services. The sectors are then weighted according to their annual GDP figures.
. Santander México compra a Scotiabank Inverlat una cartera de crédito al consumo
Grupo Financiero Santander México ha anunciado que su subsidiaria, Banco Santander (México), ha llegado a un acuerdo para adquirir un portafolio de préstamos al consumo de aproximadamente 4.100 millones de pesos de Scotiabank Inverlat.
Se espera que esta cartera de préstamos contribuya al crecimiento de la cartera estratégica de Banco Santander México, así como a mejorar la posición del grupo en el segmento de créditos personales con una cuota de mercado de aproximadamente 300 puntos básicos, mientras mantienen sus estándares de calidad de crédito.
Al respecto, el presidente ejecutivo y director general de Santander México, Marcos Martínez Gavica, comentó: «Estamos muy complacidos de haber llegado a un acuerdo para adquirir esta parte de la cartera de créditos de consumo de Scotiabank, acuerdo que está alineado con nuestra estrategia centrada en este producto altamente rentable. Esta cartera contribuye a la expansión de nuestra actual base de clientes, dado que aproximadamente el 97% de estos clientes están en el atractivo segmento de ingreso medio-alto. También vemos esta adquisición como una excelente oportunidad para ventas cruzadas de nuestra amplia gama de productos para impulsar aún más nuestro crecimiento, ya que cerca del 90% de los más de 47.000 clientes de la cartera representan nuevas oportunidades de negocio para Santander México».
Se espera que la transacción concluya en el transcurso de los siguientes tres meses, y está sujeta a la integración de la documentación, la aprobación de la Comisión Federal de Competencia Económica, así como a condiciones habituales de cierre.
George Soros en una foto de archivo. Foto: Johnleemk. George Soros confía 500 millones de dólares a Bill Gross para su estrategia unconstrained
El magnate George Soros ha otorgado un mandato de 500 millones de dólares a Bill Gross, en una clara apuesta de confianza por el rey de la renta fija. Soros está convencido de que Gross va a sobresalir en su nuevo trabajo en Janus Capital, destacan varios medios financieros estadounidenses.
Janus Capital informaba la semana pasada a través de una nota de la inversión de Soros, a través de una cuenta separada, desde Quantum Partners, el vehículo de inversión privado de Soros Fund Management. El mandato, por 500 millones de dólares, es para invertir en una estrategia similar a la de Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund (JUCTX).
Desde que Gross saliera de PIMCO en septiembre parece que las cosas marchan bien para el gurú de la renta fija después de unas semanas convulsas entre Gross y algunos de los directivos de PIMCO, la firma que él mismo fundó.
En Janus Capital, Gross dirige un fondo de renta fija global unconstrained con 440 millones de dólares en activos. El pasado mes, Janus vio cómo 1.000 millones de dólares de nuevos flujos de inversión llegaban coincidiendo con la entrada de Gross, algo que hace pocos días se veía reforzado con el anuncio de que George Soros invertirá 500 millones con Gross.
Credit Suisse, in collaboration with Brandeis University’s Institute on Assets and Social Policy (IASP), has published “Wealth patterns among the top 5% of African-Americans,” a study on wealth creation and wealth management among the nation’s wealthiest African-Americans as measured by net worth.
The study shows that the top 5% of African-Americans invest a greater proportion of their wealth in lower-volatility assets relative to a white comparison group, including insurance, savings bonds and CDs. It also shows proportionally higher investments in real estate, and proportionally lower investments in business assets.
The research was sponsored by Credit Suisse’s New Markets business, which seeks to advance financial opportunity among women, African-Americans and the LGBT community.
“This study identifies distinctive investing behaviors within the African-American community and a number of potential drivers of these behaviors,” said Pamela Thomas-Graham, Credit Suisse’s Chief Marketing and Talent Officer and Head of New Markets. “The findings may also reflect what we know from adjacent data, which is that African-Americans are generally under-served by banking institutions. The Commerce Department, for example, has published data showing that minority business owners receive loans less frequently, at significantly smaller sizes, and at worse rates than non-minority business owners.”
Highlights of the report include:
The top 5% of African-Americans take a relatively conservative approach to decision-making on matters of wealth creation and wealth management. For example:
The investment portfolios of the top 5% of African-Americans are three times more heavily weighted towards CDs, savings bonds and insurance than the investment portfolios of the study’s white comparison group, and are nearly one-half less weighted towards stocks, bonds and mutual funds.
The top 5% of African-Americans invest 9% of their non-financial assets in business assets, defined as the total value of business(es) in which a household has either an active or non-active interest. The study’s white comparison group invests 37% of their non-financial assets in business assets.
The top 5% of African-Americans invest 41% of non-financial assets in real estate outside their primary home, relative to 22% for the study’s white comparison group.
“Wealth mobility” – the degree to which a population maintains wealth over time or moves into wealth over time – is relatively low among African-Americans and may be a driver of more conservative financial decision-making. IASP’s research shows that around 57% of high-income African-American families in 1984 were still in the top segment of income in 2009, but 8% had fallen into the low-income segment. For high-income white American families, 73% remained in the high income segment and only 1% fell into the low income segment. This analysis is a new analysis of the 1984-2009 data.
Education is a key driver of wealth among the top 5% of African-Americans. Almost 69% of African-Americans at the 95th percentile of net worth have a college degree, compared with 64% for the study’s white comparison group.
“The numbers in our report provide rich and detailed insights,” said Stefano Natella, Global Head of Equity Research and one of the study’s authors. “Wealth at the top of the African-American community, what drives it and how it compares to specific control groups has not been studied with this comprehensiveness in some time.”
Evercore has announced that Connecticut Insurance Commissioner Thomas B. Leonardi has agreed to join the firm as a senior advisor with a focus on the insurance industry sector. Mr. Leonardi has nearly 40 years of experience as an investment banker, venture capitalist, attorney, and insurance company president, and is widely regarded as a leading expert on systemic risk, group supervision, and international regulatory issues.
Roger Altman, Evercore’s Executive Chairman, said, “At a time of intense regulatory changes in the insurance industry, both here and abroad, Tom’s professionalism, knowledge and experience, coupled with his personal character and integrity, will prove invaluable to a wide range of Evercore clients.”
Ralph Schlosstein, Evercore’s Chief Executive Officer, said, “We are delighted to welcome Tom to Evercore. His deep knowledge of the sector, broad experience and relationships across the industry will further enhance Evercore’s leading global insurance advisory franchise. Tom will work closely with our teams in New York and London and joins an insurance practice that has an excellent track record of success and has built an outstanding reputation for high quality, specialist advice and creativity. We look forward to continuing to build on this success with Tom’s technical expertise, strong understanding of the regulatory environment and global perspective on the industry.”
Thomas Leonardi said, “The insurance industry continues to go through a period of extraordinary challenges in regulation, global competition, systemic risk designations, storms of increasing frequency and severity, and a prolonged low-interest-rate environment. Evercore has a world-class platform, a team of professionals that are among the most talented and experienced in the business, and a commitment to delivering extraordinary service. Perhaps most important to me, Evercore places the interests of the client above all else and they do all of this while adhering to the highest ethical standards. I look forward to contributing to Evercore’s continued growth and broadening and deepening its client relationships.”
Mr. Leonardi is head of the Connecticut Insurance Department, a regulatory agency with jurisdiction over one of the largest insurance industries in the United States. He has been a member of the executive committee of both the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) and the International Association of Insurance Supervisors. He was a member of the U.S. Treasury’s inaugural Federal Advisory Committee on Insurance and was selected to serve on the World Economic Forum’s Global Council on Insurance and Asset Management.
For 22 years prior to his appointment as Commissioner, Mr. Leonardi was Chairman and CEO of Northington Partners Inc., a Connecticut-based venture capital, private equity and investment banking boutique that specialized in the insurance industry. Before Northington, he was head of the investment banking and venture capital divisions of Conning & Company in Hartford, Connecticut; President of Beneficial Corporation’s insurance subsidiaries; and began his career as a litigation attorney in Connecticut. He received a J.D. from University of Connecticut and a B.S in history from Boston University.
A unique survey looking at the financial and emotional toll of losing a spouse -the 2014 New York Life “Loss of a Spouse Study”- finds widows are unprepared for the financial difficulty that the loss of a spouse creates. Following the loss of their spouse, 68 percent of widows reported significant life changes, with financial concerns rising to the top of the list. The burden of these changes amounted to years of undue hardship after the loss.
“The news is unsettling: women are not prepared for the loss of a spouse and the problems are financial and much more,” said Chris Blunt, co-president of the Insurance and Agency Group, New York Life.
The survey examined the repercussions of the loss of a spouse on 897 widows and widowers who were within 10 years of their loss. It focused on how the loss impacted daily life from both a financial and emotional perspective, narrowing in on financial security following the loss and how it may have changed as a result. Additionally, the survey explored the impact that life insurance has on their lives, both at the time of their loss and in the future.
Financial Burden is Real – and Greater for Women
Women suffer the burden of the loss more intensely than men. Forty percent of widows reported negative lifestyle changes the year following the loss, compared to 24 percent of widowers. The financial impact was even greater: two thirds of widows experienced a significant financial change compared to half of widowers. The top five life changes following the loss were financial in nature, with a greater percentage of widows impacted in these financial areas of their lives:
Life Changes Following Loss of A Spouse
Widows
Widowers
Adjusting to a change in income level
55%
34%
Budgeting for one income
46%
32%
Cutting discretionary spending
38%
24%
No longer being able to afford a vacation
22%
13%
No longer adequately saving for retirement
21%
10%
For some widows, the lifestyle changes were even more dire: two in five widows whose spouses did not have life insurance at the time of the loss (39 percent) reported that they were just making ends meet or struggling to meet basic needs within the first year of the loss.
Having a Financial Plan Is Often Not Enough
The majority of women reported feeling secure about their financial situation before the loss – yet after the loss, 59 percent reported they didn’t have enough life insurance in place to feel financially secure. Approximately half of women (47 percent) report that they wish they had some or more life insurance to help cushion the financial impact of their loss.
“These widows learned too late that they were underinsured,” added Mr. Blunt. “The message is clear – life insurance proceeds are important, but the need for that financial security blanket is much greater than what exists in many financial plans.”
Among those whose spouse had life insurance at the time of the loss, the life insurance proceeds lasted almost two and a half years – yet they wished these funds would have lasted more than 11 years longer, for a total of nearly 14 years.
These findings are directly in line with what New York Life’s Life Insurance Gap survey demonstrated last year. The Life Insurance Gap survey of 1,000 Americans age 25 and over with dependents found that many woefully underestimate their life insurance protection needs. It similarly revealed that the amount of life insurance protection in place equaled three years and the amount of protection needed totaled 14 years.
“These consistent findings give us the answer to the question I posed when the Gap survey findings were announced: ‘If families have three years of coverage in place, what happens in year four?’ Widows have given us the bleak answer: years of undue hardship,” added Mr. Blunt.
Real World Advice from Widows
Including life insurance protection, widows reported a wish list – the things they would have done to be better prepared for their loss:
A Wish List When Looking Back
Statement
Percentage
“I wish we had some or more life insurance on my spouse.”
47%
“I wish we had saved more.”
42%
“I wish we had detailed discussions about what might happen financially and otherwise if one of us passed.”
30%
“I wish we had a better financial plan in place.”
28%
“I wish we had organized all our important papers in one central location.”
18%
“This wish list can act as a financial survival guide for couples so they can ensure they are better prepared for a loss,” said Mr. Blunt. “These widows offer us insight into what life has been like for them since the loss: the financial strain for many has been very serious and for almost all the loss has been life changing. These insights should serve as a lesson for couples: there are actions that can be taken now to alleviate the future financial burden that comes with a loss.”
The Manor, Los Angeles. . ¿Cuáles son las 10 casas a la venta más caras del planeta?
Desde cascadas, toboganes a boleras e islas privadas, las propiedades más caras del planeta con todas sus extravagancias son casas de otro mundo. Entre el Top 10 de este tipo de propiedades, Estados Unidos cuenta con cinco casas en el listado, propiedades en Nueva York y Los Ángeles a partir de los 95 millones de dólares, de acuerdo al ranking elaborado por Billionaire.com.
Para dar con las casas más caras del planeta, el listado se completó tras una amplia investigación y consulta a las principales empresas inmobiliarias del mundo. De acuerdo a ello, las casas más caras del mundo son:
1.- Un penthouse en el Tour Odeon Monaco, Mónaco, por 388 millones de dólares. Prevista su finalización para principios de 2015, el Tour Odeon Monaco será el segundo edificio más grande en la costa mediterránea y el hogar del apartamento más caro del mundo; un ático de cinco pisos que cuesta 388 millones. Los apartamentos en este edificio empiezan en los 36 millones. La vende Knight Frank.
2.- The Manor, Los Ángeles (Estados Unidos), se vende por 150 millones de dólares. Construido en 1988 por el magnate del entrenamiento Aaron Spelling y su esposa Candy, “The Manor” fue comprada por Petra Truco (Ecclestone). Desde entonces, la nueva inquilina ha gastado 20 millones en reformas y ahora cuenta con 123 habitaciones, que incluyen gimnasio, bolera y sala de proyecciones. La mansión se encuentra dentro de 4,7 hectáreas de terreno en una de las zonas más exclusivas de Los Ángeles y sería la casa más cara jamás vendida en Estados Unidos si se satisface el precio de compra. Está puesta a la venta por su propietaria.
3.- Beverly House, Los Ángeles. Precio de venta, 135 millones. Esta casa es famosa porque apareció en la película de El Padrino y fue el lugar escogido por JF Kennedy y su esposa Jackie para pasar parte de su luna de miel. Con casi 365 días de sol al año, la casa está especialmente diseñada para aprovechar la temperatura de California, con ventanas del suelo hasta el techo, grandes cámaras de frío, una pista de tenis al aire libre, piscina y cascadas. La terraza tiene capacidad para 400 personas y cuenta con un club nocturno, así que el éxito para celebrar fiestas está garantizado. Está en el inventario de Christies Real Estate.
4.- Rancho San Carlos (California). Con un precio de 125 millones de dólares, esta casa estilo colonial fue diseñada en 1929 por el arquitecto estadounidense Reginald Johnson. Está rodeada de 237 acres en una de las direcciones más buscadas en América, Montecito (Santa Bárbara). Después de 100 años la finca de la familia Jackson, con diez casas, cuadras y 100 acres de huertos cultivados finalmente está lista para cambiar de manos. Las paredes de roble que recubren el salón principal, importados directamente de Jackson Manor House en Inglaterra, siguen aún intactas, así como el pub inglés con una puerta secreta. La casa está construida sobre dos terrazas naturales con vistas al valle y Pacífico. Sothebys está encargada de su venta.
5.- One Hyde Park, Londres. Por 103 millones de dólares, los hermanos Candy lanzaron este multimillonario complejo en medio de la recesión. Ocupando todo un piso, este apartamento se divide en dos alas, conocidas como “The City” y “The Park”. Un pasillo de 65 metros conecta las dos alas. Aylesford.com se encargaría de la operación.
6.- 17 The Sherry-Netherland, Nueva York. Construida en 1927 tiene un precio de 95 millones de dólares y se encuentra en el edificio The Sherry-Netherland, un edificio hotel residencial de lujo con varios apartamentos en venta. El número 17 del edificio ocupa un piso entero y cuenta con siete cuartos, ocho baños y una enorme terraza mirando a Central Park y downtown Manhattan. Este apartamento de lujo también está en manos de Knight Frank para su venta.
7.- The Penthouse del Pierre Hotel, Nueva York. También por 95 millones de dólares, una vez fue propiedad de Martin Zweig, un analista financiero famoso porque predijo el crash bursátil de 1987. Este suntuoso ático de Manhattan se extiende en tres plantas. Aunque usted cuente con los 95 millones para comprarlo, si quiere ser vecino deberá ser antes examinado con lupa por el comité del hotel para ver si está a la altura. Con 16 habitaciones, un gran salón y vistas de 360 grados sobre Manhattan, este espectacular ático ha sido nombrado el mejor del mundo en más de una ocasión. Sothebys también se encarga de su venta.
8.- Du Parc Penthouse, Ginebra. Piden por él 94 millones de dólares y se encuentra a las orillas de Lac Léman. Se encuentra en un edificio renovado con 24 modernos apartamentos, y su ático es el que cuesta 94 millones. La llave de uno de estos apartamentos le da acceso a una membresía de por vida al Club de Golf Lavaux, una membresía de 10 años al Mirador Country Club y al uso de un Rolls – Royce, mayordomo, spa, bodega y un largo etc.
9.- Private Island Paradise, Exuma Cays, Bahamas. Esta casa por la que se pide 85 millones de dólares viene con isla privada incluida y con espacio para albergar a 22 invitados y 29 personas de servicio, es el lugar para relajares en manos de otros. Además de todos los lujos y comodidades que ofrece, está a solo una hora de avión de Palm Beach (Florida) y tiene la ventaja de que es un lugar libre de impuestos. Sothebys también se encarga de su venta.
10.- Por último, Lyndhurst Road Mansion, en Londres. Por esta casa de ladrillo rojo al norte de Londres, sus dueños piden 77 millones de dólares. El hall de entrada cuenta con una lámpara de araña, una balaustrada de mármol y una chimenea. Cuenta con una decoración de lujo a la que no le falta un detalle. Si está interesado póngase en contacto con Knight Frank.
The Managed Funds Association (MFA), the global trade association for the hedge fund and managed futures industry, has announced online registration and conference programming for their Network 2015 conference. MFA’s Network conference is the industry’s premier business development conference, focused on connecting fund managers and investors to discuss important investment trends and policy issues facing the industry. Network 2015 will convene at the InterContinental Hotel in Miami, Fla., on January 26-28. Early registration is now available online.
“We are building on the overwhelming success of last year’s conference by enhancing the networking and business development opportunities for our participants and expanding our programming as well,” said Managed Funds Association President & CEO Richard H. Baker. “We are confident that Network 2015 will be a catalyst for continued growth within the hedge fund, global macro and managed futures fund space.”
MFA’s Network conference provides an exclusive experience, including a cutting-edge educational agenda and unique investor-led roundtable discussions focused on the most critical issues facing the industry today, including: the rise of liquid alternatives, environmental, social and governance (ESG) investing, the role of risk in modern asset allocation, and critical themes associated with raising funds and creating new products and distribution channels. Network also provides a one-to-one ratio of the world’s foremost managers and investors, including pensions, endowments, family offices, wealth managers, funds of funds and distribution partners.
This year’s conference continues the successful partnership between MFA and lead sponsors Credit Suisse, Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management, J.P. Morgan and, new for 2015, KPMG. Hedge Fund Research has also partnered with MFA to provide investors with detailed statistics on managers who will be attending the conference. The collaboration with these sponsors has enabled MFA to expand and enhance networking opportunities for conference attendees. Participants will also be able to once again utilize MFA’s digital concierge platform, MFAConnect, to arrange meetings with investors and managers prior to the conference and also reserve private Manager Suite meeting spaces. Through these offerings, MFA enables participants to arrange and schedule meetings in advance to make efficient use of their time in Miami while also offering exclusive, one-on-one, meeting space for asset allocators and fund managers. Suites can also be reserved during registration.
“Every year we tap into the tremendous insight and vision offered by our members and partners to align our conferences with the needs and goals of those attending.We are grateful for the input and support of all our conference supporters and look forward to the most comprehensive Network conference yet,” said Mr. Baker.
Over the next several weeks, MFA will post additional announcements related to registration and conference programming on the Network 2015 website. Registration is free for investors and allocators. Managers also have a discounted rate available to them through January 2, 2015. Advance registration for all participants closes on January 26, 2015; onsite registrations are available as space allows.
. Morgan Stanley WM lanza una unidad para servir a deportistas y figuras del entretenimiento
Morgan Stanley Wealth Management ha anunciado el lanzamiento de una nueva división que servirá las necesidades únicas de los deportistas y artistas ya consagrados, así como la de los nuevos talentos y sus asesores en la industria del deporte y el entretenimiento.
“Los clientes de alto valor del mundo del deporte y de la industria de entretenimiento tienen necesidades sofisticadas de gestión patrimonial. Nuestros servicios son prestados por un grupo de experimentados asesores financieros, respaldados por una formación especializada y todos los recursos de un banco de inversión global líder, lo que creemos que va a establecer un nuevo estándar en la industria”, dijo Gregory J. Fleming, presidente de Morgan Stanley WM y Morgan Stanley IM.
Para la puesta en marcha de esta nueva división se ha formado un primer grupo de asesores financieros en todo Estados Unidos, que han sido elegidos por su experiencia en el trabajo con atletas, directores, artistas, escritores, productores y agentes, entre otros. Estos asesores financieros completaron recientemente un programa de educación.
La nueva división ofrece a los profesionales del mundo del deporte y la industria del entretenimiento acceso a recursos y programas a su medida, incluyendo gestión de activos, filantropía y servicios de asesoramiento de estilo de vida, gobierno familiar y planificación financiera avanzada, seguros, banca de inversión y soluciones de capital privado.
Global investors have a restored appetite for risk amid greater optimism over the outlook for profits and the economy, according to the BofA Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey for November. A net 47 percent of the global panel expects the economy to strengthen in the year ahead, a rise from a net 33 percent in October. Investors have expressed similar positivity over profits – a net 42 percent say that global corporate profits will improve in the coming year, up from a net 27 percent last month.
Investors have signaled that their optimism has been translating into action over recent weeks. In October, a net 16 percent of the panel said they were taking lower than normal levels of risk. This month, a net 2 percent are taking above-normal risk. The proportion taking out protection against a sharp fall in equities in the coming three months has fallen to a net -39 percent from a net -35 percent.
Asset allocators have shifted out of cash and increased their allocations to equities. A net 13 percent of respondents to the global survey are overweight cash in November, down from a net 27 percent in October. The proportion of asset allocators overweight equities has risen by 12 percentage points to a net 46 percent. Hedge funds have also increased their net allocations to equities – 43 percent of surveyed hedge funds are net long equities, up from 35 percent one month ago. Japan is the region most in favor, while investors are sending mixed signals about appetite towards Europe. Real Estate allocations have reached the highest overweight recorded since its inclusion in the survey in 2006.
“Deflation might be in the back of investors’ minds, but taking on risk, especially in equities, in Japan and in the dollar is at the forefront of their thinking,” said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch Research. “European stocks were recently boosted bythe best earnings season in three years. However concerns over longevity of growth and deflation continue. Three wise themes of yield, quality, and large cap are the best places to hide in European stocks,” said Manish Kabra, European equity and quantitative strategist.
Japan – most positive outlook since 2005
Japanese equities have seen a second big pick up in allocations in consecutive months, and the trend is likely to continue. A net 45 percent of global asset allocators are overweight Japan, a rise from a net 32 percent in October and a net 23 percent in September. Japan is also the most favored region for the coming year. A net 27 percent of the investor panel says that Japan is the region they are most likely to overweight in the next 12 months. This represents a nine-year high and a rise from a net 14 percent in October.
Conviction over Japan appears to be underpinned by a belief in the profit outlook and a view that the country’s stocks are undervalued. A net 26 percent of respondents identified Japan as having the most favorable profit outlook for the year ahead – a rise of 10 percentage points month-on-month. And a net 17 percent say that Japanese equities are the most undervalued in the world.
As they assess Japan’s outlook, investors are weighing up the prospect of the yen suffering more depreciation in the coming year than the euro or dollar. A net 57 percent of the global panel expects the yen to fall in value on a trade-weighted basis. This, however, could make Japanese exporters attractive. The regional survey highlights how three of Japan’s largest exporting sectors – technology, industrials and autos – are the most favored by local investors.
Risk appetite overcomes fear of tail-risks
Investors have marked out deflation as the biggest risk to the market’s upward trajectory. Twenty-nine percent of the global panel said that eurozone deflation is the biggest “tail risk,” ahead of geopolitical crisis (21 percent). Furthermore, asked in a new question what is the greatest risk in 2015, 71 percent opted for deflation over inflation.
But while deflation is a concern, they don’t appear to see it as the most likely outcome. A net 35 percent of investors have said that they expect global core inflation to pick up over the year ahead.
Confused signals over European equities and concern over France
Investors appear unsure how to treat European equities. Global asset allocators increased their moderate overweight positions slightly this month – a net 8 percent are now overweight the region. But investors have also indicated that they would like to underweight the region in the coming 12 months. Meanwhile, investors inside Europe have indicated optimism over the region’s prospects for improving growth and profits – a net 62 percent of the regional respondents forecast improving earnings per share for the coming year, up from a net 32 percent in October. But, they have increased cash holdings in the past month and have indicated a growing appetite to underweight France and scale back holdings in Italy.
