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Apoyo a «la última frontera» a través de la inversión

Sustaining the Final Frontier through Investment — Foto: Steve MCN, Flickr, Creative Commons. Apoyo a "la última frontera" a través de la inversión

Aunque África sigue siendo un destino cada vez más atractivo para la inversión, esta realidad no se ha traducido en un aumento comparable de la inversión extranjera directa. En cambio, por ejemplo, la India ha recibido más inversiones directas del extranjero en los últimos cuatro años que todo el continente africano junto. Como mayor inversor privado en África, Old Mutual Investment Group está bien posicionado para capitalizar su ventaja exclusiva como líder del mercado en el continente, y seguirá aplicando estrategias en consonancia con el impacto que se prevé que tengan las economías emergentes de África sobre el rendimiento del capital.

Con este telón de fondo, seguimos viendo que la mejora de la percepción de África como destino de inversión se sustenta en un fuerte crecimiento del PIB, una demografía favorable (con una población en rápido proceso de urbanización y una clase media emergente), un riesgo político reducido y una mejor administración empresarial.

Debido a esto, el mundo está despertando por fin a la pujanza de África y a su estimulante PIB como próxima gran historia de crecimiento regional.

China sigue ampliando sus inversiones en el continente, mientras que las cifras muestran que las economías de Oriente Medio, Asia, Latinoamérica, el resto de Europa y el Reino Unido cada vez tienen más avidez por invertir.

Este creciente interés se ve impulsado por las perspectivas considerablemente positivas del continente para la próxima década. No se trata tan solo de una cuestión de recursos, sino también de facilitar las estructuras y los sistemas necesarios para la pujante clase media, que ya es mayor que la de la India.

La realidad sigue siendo que el mercado de consumo que se desarrolla en todo el continente impulsa el crecimiento del sector minorista. Estos consumidores acceden cada vez más a servicios bancarios, de seguros y de telecomunicación móvil. Otro tema clave sigue siendo el desarrollo de viviendas e infraestructuras, así como las destacadas oportunidades del sector agrícola.

Las cifras demuestran que hace diez años la clase media de África alcanzaba los 116 millones de personas. En la actualidad, esta cifra se sitúa por encima de los 326 millones de personas, aproximadamente una tercera parte del continente. En comparación, en Asia esta cifra es del 54% de la población, mientras que en Latinoamérica llega al 77%.

El panorama empresarial, de gobierno y político también ha mejorado considerablemente durante la última década.

Desde un punto de vista global, África sigue ofreciendo grandes oportunidades de crecimiento, mientras que los riesgos disminuyen y las bases se mantienen sólidas.

Nuestro método de inversión está dirigido en gran medida a proyectos sostenibles sobre temas clave de desarrollo, lo cual también va más allá de las acciones mencionadas. Entre dichos proyectos se incluyen ámbitos alternativos de inversiones y de interés fijo como la energía baja en emisiones de carbono, la educación, la vivienda a precios asequibles, el sector inmobiliario de infraestructuras y la agricultura, así como la deuda no cotizada y diversificada según países, tipos de activos, administradores y ciclos económicos/de inflación.

Al invertir en escuelas, viviendas e infraestructuras no solo favorecemos el desarrollo del continente y dejamos una huella duradera y positiva en el panorama social, sino que además nos aseguramos de lograr rendimientos sostenibles para los inversores. Aunque la inversión privada en el continente sigue siendo a largo plazo e ilíquida, nos proporciona beneficios netos reales de entre un 2% y un 3% por encima de los activos con cotización.

Hywel George, director de inversiones de Old Mutual Investment Group

Liberalizing Brazil Like the Free Spirit of Carnival

| Por Fórmate a Fondo | 0 Comentarios

For nearly three centuries, Brazilians have been flocking to the streets adorned in colorful costumes for their annual Carnival. There’s no shortage of whimsy here, and it’s a time-tested tradition that attracts visitors from across the globe.

But there’s more to Brazil than just a big party. While its economy may not be prime for celebration right now, it did take years for Carnival to get internationally noticed. Why shouldn’t an emerging country also receive adequate time to build itself?

Last year, Brazil was slighted by investors as one of the “Fragile Five” emerging market economies because it was deemed as being over-dependent on foreign investment. Brazil was also one of the market economies hit hardest by capital flight after the US Federal Reserve announced plans to reduce stimulus policies that initially encouraged international investors to allocate money to so-called riskier assets.

We believe the lackluster image that has been given to Brazil may be unwarranted. Brazil maintains a strong fundamental growth story. The country has an ample supply of quality companies. Many of our holdings are market leaders in their respective industries and have strong businesses that are well-equipped to weather any economic or political swings.

The country has now grown to become the world’s seventh largest economy with a population of more than 200 million people. It is also South America’s largest country and abundant in natural resources.

Of course, these strengths do not mean Brazil is without obstacles. Corruption concerns and excessive government intervention in its economy are also driving up costs that make the country among the harder countries to conduct business in.

Brazil’s historical emphasis on supporting domestic industries also created a slew of taxes and tariffs that limited imports. With such a protected domestic market, companies had little reason to become efficient, and the prices of goods rose to an unfavorably higher price.

The country’s stock market is also hitting a bump on recent news of President Dilma Rousseff’s re-election in October 2014. Investors worried that her continued leadership would prevent policy changes. But we believe Brazil is learning from past outcomes, and we foresee Rousseff being more open to alliances with political counterparts who are more market-focused and business-friendly. We’re already seeing some shifts in motion.

Joaquim Levy was recently named finance minister, which signals that more market-friendly policies are likely to be adopted. His announced plan is to bring the primary surplus before interest payments down to 1.2% of gross domestic product (GDP) this year. He then plans to raise it back up to 2% moving forward after that. The whole point of doing this is to restore credibility, in hopes that greater certainty will boost private investment.

Former Treasury Secretary Nelson Barbosa is transitioning to planning minister, in charge of major infrastructure projects. This is vital to the development of Brazil’s rich natural resources industry. Often, the issue with having abundant resources is having the proper infrastructure upgrades (which require substantial funding) in place to keep up with growing demand.

The Brazilian government’s declining popularity under Rousseff is adding pressure on the country to address all the economic problems it’s facing, and we expect to see more discipline in the fiscal and economic policies that it rolls out. For Brazil to continuing growing on the world stage, it needs to focus on exports, which currently account for only 10% of the nation’s GDP.

Over the long-term, increased exports would support the Brazilian currency and help reduce imported inflation. In turn, this would lower domestic interest rates and debt servicing costs, potentially supporting consumer demand.

We expect that Brazil’s growing young population will also help foster demand by driving urbanization, industrialization and domestic consumption. As purchasing power rises, there will be potentially many new investment categories that service this population, including shopping mall developers, retailers, financial services providers and consumer goods companies. This will foster a stronger economy.

In short, what Brazil needs more of right now is liberalization – the freedom to change, adapt and grow – much in the unobstructed way that Carnival has been able to evolve these past centuries. Because Brazil cannot afford another restrained economy or “lost decade” like the one it experienced in the 1980s. That is one party we wouldn’t want to attend.

By Nick Robinson, Director – Head of Brazilian Equities at Aberdeen Asset Management

Invesco impulsa el negocio de ETFs en Chile con la aprobación de 11 productos de su filial PowerShares

| Por Alicia Miguel | 0 Comentarios

La CCR de Chile ha aprobado recientemente 11 fondos cotizados (ETFs) de la filial de Invesco, PowerShares, todos ellos domiciliados en Estados Unidos.

Invesco da así un primer paso en el negocio de ETFs en el mercado chileno. Entre los ETFs aprobados por el supervisor chileno se incluyen varios buques insignia de PowerShares, como el PowerShares QQQ, que tiene activos de casi 40.000 millones de dólares, o los ETFs PowerShares Senior Loan Portfolio y S&P 500 Low Volatility Portfolio, que rondan los 6.000 millones de dólares en activos.

«Lanzamos nuestros primeros ETFs en Chile para ofrecer nuevas oportunidades de inversión a nuestros clientes en el país, que tienen desde ahora a su disposición la gama de productos de uno de los líderes mundiales de este mercado, PowerShares. De esta forma, Invesco amplía su oferta para reforzar su posición como una de las principales gestoras internacionales del mercado chileno”, comenta Íñigo Escudero, responsable de Ventas de Invesco para España, Portugal y Chile.

Todos los productos registrados y aprobados están domiciliados en EE.UU., el mercado en el que PowerShares tiene más presencia a nivel mundial.

La lista de ETFs aprobados es la siguiente:

PowerShares Exchange-Traded Fund Trust – PowerShares Buyback Achievers Portfolio
PowerShares Exchange-Traded Fund Trust – PowerShares Dynamic Large Cap Value Portfolio
PowerShares Exchange-Traded Fund Trust – PowerShares Dynamic Pharmaceuticals Portfolio
PowerShares Exchange-Traded Fund Trust – PowerShares FTSE RAFI US 1000 Portfolio
PowerShares Exchange-Traded Fund Trust – PowerShares FTSE RAFI US 1500 Small-Mid Portfolio
PowerShares Exchange-Traded Fund Trust – PowerShares Fundamental Pure Large Growth Portfolio
PowerShares Exchange-Traded Fund Trust II – PowerShares S&P 500 High Beta Portfolio
PowerShares Exchange-Traded Fund Trust II – PowerShares S&P 500 High Dividend Portfolio
PowerShares Exchange-Traded Fund Trust II – PowerShares S&P 500 Low Volatility Portfolio
PowerShares Exchange-Traded Fund Trust II – PowerShares Senior Loan Portfolio
PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1

¿Qué no estamos viendo?

| Por Fórmate a Fondo | 0 Comentarios

O aprendimos mal las materias de macroeconomía en la universidad, o nos están contando una historia que no es cierta. Cómo explicar que mientras los precios de los bienes de exportación de las economías latinoamericanas han caído más del 50%, algunos gobiernos nos sigan diciendo que las cosas van bien, incluso, mejor de lo que hasta un optimista podría imaginarse.

La cuestión básica de la situación latinoamericana es que nos acostumbramos, en muchos casos, a vivir de un solo producto de producción y de exportación, y en casi todos los casos, de un producto básico. Recuerdo en los 90’s, cuando asistía a la universidad, que la premisa básica era la siguiente: los países que se quedan en bienes básicos son pobres, los países que generan valor agregado son ricos.

Para mi poca fortuna académica siguiente, los bienes básicos empezaron a ganar valor al tiempo que el valor agregado de los países ricos los llevaba a la bancarrota: ¿qué más valor agregado que una compañía tecnológica? Y así vivimos durante la primera década de este siglo, en el cual el precio de los bienes básicos subía y subía, y los países que producían estos bienes, descuidando todo lo demás, ganaban mucho dinero.

Esto, digamos, también facilitaba la vida de muchos gobiernos: producir bienes básicos no necesita una preparación muy grande en un gran componente de su producción, por lo cual las metas educativas eran totalmente aplazables. Y así, la historia de primeros semestres de universidad, según la cual debíamos parecernos más a la Corea del Sur del período de Park, invirtiendo en educación media y universitaria, para luego tener un alto componente de capital económico y, así, progresar. Pero el dinero relativamente fácil de extraer productos que nos da las entrañas de la tierra cambió la situación.

En algunos casos, los países ahorraron; en la mayoría, derrocharon. Y ese derroche se debe empezar a sentir en los próximos años: deudas públicas crecientes, déficits que se deben expandir, y, nuevamente, los ojos inquisidores de los bancos internacionales sobre la región. No puede ser de otra forma, porque para nuestro infortunio, y aunque nos cueste aceptarlo, en el promedio estamos al igual que a principios de los 90.

Ahora bien, toca compensar la caída del precio de los bienes básicos de alguna forma. Muchos gobiernos llaman a la inversión, al gasto público, entre otros. Eso está muy bien, pero una cosa es gasto público con los fondos de reserva llenos, otra muy diferente sin ellos. En este caso, América Latina, ¿cómo están tus fondos? Y siempre se encuentra alguna esperanza a la que aferrarse, la de moda en muchos países, es que los chinos vengan con los bolsillos llenos a invertir desaforadamente. Pero los chinos tienen claro lo que necesitan, y ellos no invierten por gastar su dinero sin pensarlo: tontos, no son. Lo digo yo, que tuve la fortuna de conocerlos y trabajar allá con ellos directamente.

En serio, o aprendimos mal o no vemos cosas que los gobiernos ven o sencillamente alguien no está diciendo la verdad completa.

Las opiniones aquí expresadas son responsabilidad de su autor, Manuel Felipe García Ospina, y no representan necesariamente la posición de Old Mutual sobre los temas tratados.

Crèdit Andorrà cierra una operación de sale & leaseback sobre tres de sus inmuebles valorada en 85,8 millones

| Por Alicia Miguel | 0 Comentarios

Crèdit Andorrà ha cerrado una operación de sale & leaseback con un grupo inversor extranjero residente en Andorra sobre tres de sus inmuebles, incluida la sede social, por un importe de 85,8 millones de euros, con importantes plusvalías.

El acuerdo, de carácter estratégico, recoge que Crèdit Andorrà permanecerá en calidad de arrendatario de los inmuebles por un período de 20 años, prorrogables en 10 años adicionales, y que dispondrá de un derecho preferente de adquisición sobre estos inmuebles.

Las operaciones financieras de sale & leaseback son una fórmula utilizada habitualmente por las corporaciones internacionales y, en especial, por los grandes grupos financieros para optimizar la gestión de sus balances, fortalecer el ratio de solvencia y mejorar el ratio de liquidez.

Crèdit Andorrà, en línea con su política permanente de implementar los mejores estándares y prácticas internacionales, se adelanta así a los requerimientos de solvencia más estrictos de las nuevas regulaciones de Basilea III y al sistema de valoración y recuperación de activos que incorporan los nuevos International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS).

Este fortalecimiento de los fondos propios de máxima calidad refuerza el modelo de negocio en Andorra y respalda el proceso de expansión internacional, que ha llevado al banco a estar presente en 11 países de América y Europa desde que se inició, en 2003. Con este refuerzo, el banco continúa ocupando de manera destacada el primer lugar entre las entidades financieras del país en relación al volumen de fondos propios, que ascienden hasta alrededor de 600 millones de euros.

La formalización de dicha operación pone de relieve la confianza a corto, medio y largo plazo de los inversores, en relación a la solidez del proyecto de Crèdit Andorrà y a la del país.

Legg Mason ficha a dos especialistas de Vanguard para desarrollar el negocio de ETFs

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Legg Mason Announces Hire Of Seasoned ETF Professionals — . Legg Mason ficha a dos especialistas de Vanguard para desarrollar el negocio de ETFs

Legg Mason ha fichado a Rick Genoni y Brandon Clark para dirigir la estrategia de la firma en la categoría de ETFs. El equipo se une a Legg Mason procedente de The Vanguard Group, donde conjuntamente acumulaban una experiencia de casi 18 años en este tipo de vehículos. Mientras Genoni lideraba el equipo de management de ETFs y el índice Vanguard, Clark manejaba la estrategia ETF Capital Markets Group de la compañía.

«El desarrollo de nuestros productos viene marcado por las necesidades y preferencias de nuestros clientes. Los ETFs van más allá de los tradicionales productos pasivos ligados a índices y creemos que existen importantes oportunidades para crear productos innovadores con la estructura de un ETF que resuelva las necesidades del cliente», explicó Thomas Hoops, vicepresidente ejecutivo de Desarrollo de Negocios de Legg Mason.

Tanto Genoni como Clark tienen una importante experiencia en la estructuración y la creación de nuevos productos, y en el trabajo diario con las autoridades regulatorias y otras partes del mercado para ponerlos en marcha trabajando, explica el comunicado de Legg Mason. Como parte de sus funciones, dieron formación a sus clientes institucionales y clientes minoristas en el uso de estos productos en las carteras, y representaron a la empresa en el lanzamiento de ETFs.

“La profunda experiencia de Genoni y Clarken este segmento les permitirá trabajar con nuestros socios para identificar las mejores oportunidades de crecimiento en este segmento del mercado”, apuntó Hoops.

Miami, the Next Singapore: Making the Case

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There is a lot to Miami ‒ and more broadly speaking, to South Florida ‒ than tourism and real estate.

Art Basel has given us bragging rights as a cultural crossroads. eMerge has given us the confidence to envision an emerging technology nexus. And more than 1,000 multinational company offices, together with Miami’s bustling international trade, unquestionably make South Florida an international business gateway.

But lately, we have also begun to tout our credentials as a hotbed for financial services, a Singapore of the Americas.

So, it is only fair to ask: Does Miami, a.k.a. South Florida, really have the chops to be taken seriously as a financial services hub? Or is it just a lot of wannabe chatter? Until now, the case for Miami as a budding financial polestar has rested largely on anecdotal evidence. Sure, new firms have been setting up shop. Scout Ventures, a New York-based venture capital firm, recently opened an office in Miami, and hedge fund Universa Investments moved its headquarters from Southern California to Coconut Grove. But at the same time, other financial firms ‒ such as Canada’s RBC Wealth Management and Britain’s Lloyds TSB Bank ‒ have left town.

So, anecdotally, it’s a tie.

For a change, let’s forget the anecdotes and allow the numbers to do the talking, starting with the most basic one of all: How many financial services firms do we have in South Miami? The answer to that question, simple as it sounds, turns out to be rather complex.

Enlarge

For starters, financial services firms come in a variety of species, most of them kissing cousins. There are commercial banks, investment banks, hedge funds, mutual funds, asset managers, private equity firms, broker dealers, real estate investment funds, wealth management firms, private banks and family offices.

Databases, such as IPREO, Pitchbook, Thomson ONE, are a good point of departure for analyzing this maze, but often the databases don’t agree on how to categorize the firms. Compounding the confusion, firms sometimes categorize themselves differently than do the databases. Unsure of one firm’s lineage, we asked its CEO “So are you a private equity firm or a family office?” The answer: “We’re hedge fund.” Aha!

Beyond the often murky boundaries between venture capital and private equity, between multi-family offices and wealth management firms, are two distorting characteristics of the money business: mystery and bravado.

On the one hand, South Florida, from Miami to the Palm Beaches, has long been a magnet for wealthy global citizens, many of whom would prefer not to appear on anyone’s radar. On the other hand, there are plenty of investment advisors, who are more than happy to embellish their investment banking credentials, or wealth managers eager to exaggerate their importance.

So, first, we had to acknowledge that some pools of investment money being managed in South Florida will defy detection. And second, we had to weed out marginal players by applying minimum standards for inclusion in the hedge fund count, the investment bank club, the list of international banks, etc.

Even so, coming up with accurate numbers for the different segments of the South Florida financial services industry was a cumbersome process. But once we felt comfortable with our figures, we asked experts in each of the industry segments to validate them.

The results are presented in the accompanying infographic. South Florida is home to 50 community banks, 59 international banks, 60 hedge funds, 63 wealth management firms, 19 private equity firms, 13 investment banks, and more than 200 family offices, not to mention a few upstart venture capital firms, a $7 billion mutual fund and more real estate investment funds than we even dared to count.

Is that a lot? Does that make Miami a financial services hub? By all indications, it does. That’s not to say Miami is in the same league as New York. But it does deserve to be in the conversation. But this begs another question: How do South Florida’s numbers stack up against those of Chicago, San Francisco, L.A., Houston?

That is the next challenge. Stay tuned.

You can check the Miami Finance Infographic PDF in the attachment above

The Author: Ian McCluskey is Vice President of Newlink Financial Communications.

Citi Announces $100 Billion, 10-Year Commitment to Finance Sustainable Growth

| Por Fórmate a Fondo | 0 Comentarios

Citi has announced a landmark commitment to lend, invest and facilitate a total of $100 billion within the next 10 years to finance activities that reduce the impacts of climate change and create environmental solutions that benefit people and communities. Citi’s previous $50 billion goal was announced in 2007 and was met three years early in 2013.

With this $100 billion initiative, Citi will build on its leadership in renewable energy and energy efficiency financing to engage with clients to identify opportunities to finance greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions and resource efficiency in other sectors, such as sustainable transportation.

As part of a commitment to helping cities thrive during this period of unprecedented urban transformation, Citi will seek to finance and support activities that enable communities to adapt to climate change impacts and directly finance infrastructure improvements that increase access to clean water and manage waste, while also supporting green, affordable housing for clients, including in low- and moderate-income communities.

“Citi has demonstrated its deep commitment to not only taking environmental consequences into account, but also finding innovative ways to finance projects that lead to sustainable growth,” said Michael Corbat, Chief Executive Officer of Citi. “For more than 200 years, Citi’s mission has been to enable progress by facilitating economic growth and financing transformative projects. The core mission hasn’t changed, but the way we approach it has. Incorporating the principles of sustainability into everything we do improves our own operations, enhances our clients’ work, and contributes to a better world.”

“Reducing carbon emissions and becoming more climate resilient is a key priority and major challenge for the world’s megacities and their business communities,” said James Alexander, Head of the Finance and Economic Development Initiative at C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group, a network of the world’s biggest cities working to become more sustainable. “C40’s ongoing partnership with Citi is helping global cities overcome their climate finance challenges. Today’s announcement from Citi will add further opportunities to help cities achieve their climate targets, and allow businesses to become more sustainable.”

World Events Encourage Institutional Investors to Consider Seismic Shifts in Investments

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Large institutional investors are likely to make significant shifts in asset allocation in 2015 in response to divergent market and macro-economic trends, a new BlackRock survey has found.

The poll of 169 of BlackRock’s largest institutional clients representing $8 trillion in assets, found these investors are focused on growth rates in developed economies, divergent monetary policies and the potential for deflation. As a result, respondents predicted significant moves in their portfolios towards alternative investments and less traditional fixed income strategies that aim to provide returns across varying market conditions. Senior investment professionals at the surveyed institutions also expressed concerns about escalating geo-political tensions.

“Mixed economic growth forecasts and shifting monetary policies are significant challenges for our clients. These conditions are testing investors’ ability to generate sufficient returns to meet their long-term liabilities,” commented Mark McCombe, Senior Managing Director and Global Head of BlackRock’s Institutional Client Business. “In today’s environment, we advocate proactive risk management. We believe institutional investors should also consider alternative and non-traditional asset allocations, particularly longer dated ones that allow institutions to ride out the expected near-term volatility.”

Low rates, deflation fears in Europe and Japan

Investors are challenged by historically low interest rates and patchy economic growth in many developed economies, although they retain near universal confidence in central bank policy, according to the survey.

Investors are anticipating continued low rates with 74% believing it was unlikely the US 10-year Treasury note would rise above a 3.5% yield over the next year, while 88% also believe it is unlikely the Fed will tighten too much too soon. Meanwhile, 56% believe Europe will likely enter a deflationary regime. However, 63% believe that the European Central Bank will maintain its credibility with investors. More than two-thirds of respondents (69%) believe China’s growth will dip below 7%.

Real estate, real assets and flexible fixed income strategies favoured

Senior investment professionals expressed increased appetite for allocations to real assets, real estate, private equity and unconstrained fixed income. Six in 10 anticipate increasing allocations to real assets and approximately half plan to add to real estate (50%) and private equity (47%). Conversely, more than a quarter (26%) anticipate decreasing allocations to cash and 39% will decrease investment in fixed income. Fixed income portfolios are also changing, as many investors are moving out of core and long duration strategies while increasing allocations to unconstrained (35%), emerging market debt (38%), US bank loans (33%) and securitised assets (23%).

Mr. McCombe added: “The trend towards alternatives isn’t new, but what is surprising is the level of conviction institutions towards physical assets like real estate and infrastructure. We believe many institutions are structurally under-invested in real assets, and it is great to see they are more bullish on these strategies than they were 12 months ago. The moves in fixed income are also significant and highlight the importance of manager selection and mandate flexibility in a time of yield scarcity.”

Regional Results

European institutions strongly favour real assets and real estate: In Europe, senior investors were even more bullish on real assets and real estate. 69% anticipate increasing allocations to real assets against 2% saying they would decrease allocations, while 66% plan to add to real estate versus 9% who said they would decrease allocations. 36% intend to increase allocations to private equity against 14% who would decrease, while contrary to the global trend a net 9% said they would increase allocations to public equities (40% to increase versus 31% to decrease).
Asia-Pacific institutions allocation changes in line with global investors: In Asia Pacific, institutions are showing similar appetites for increasing allocations in real assets (64%), real estate (54%) and private equity (43%) as their global peers while 44% of them anticipate moving out of fixed income. Within fixed income, allocations to high yield and long duration are expected to decrease, with unconstrained (41%), emerging markets (38%) and short duration (32%) gaining favour.
US and Canada institutions pare equity and cash exposure and add to alternatives: US and Canada respondents’ reactions to the sustained bull market in equities were to reduce their exposure with 39% indicating they would decrease equity allocations. Additionally, 20% of respondents in this region are planning on reducing cash holdings. As with their counterparts around the world, alternative strategies and assets are attracting interest, with more than a third of the respondents saying they would increase investment in private equity (46%), real estate (34%) and real assets (53%).

Investors Are Exuberantly Bullish on Europe After Promise of ECB Action

| Por Alicia Miguel | 0 Comentarios

Global investors are significantly more positive on the outlook for Europe after the European Central Bank’s announcement of quantitative easing to reflate the region’s economy, according to the BofA Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey for February.

An overall total of 196 panelists with US$559 billion of assets under management participated in the survey from 6 February to 12 February 2015. A total of 157 managers, managing US$459 billion, participated in the global survey.

Europe’s profit outlook is at its best since 2009, according to panel members. A net 81 percent of regional specialists see the economy strengthening in the next year. Against this background, a record net 51 percent make the region their top pick in equities over a one-year horizon, up from January’s net 18 percent. A net 55 percent are already overweight.

The U.S. has been the main loser from this rotation. Overweights on U.S. equities have declined to a net 6 percent, down 18 points versus last month.

Overall, fund managers have increased their allocations both to stocks (a net 57 percent overweight, up six points month-on-month) and cash (a net 22 percent overweight, a five-point rise). This is at the expense of bonds, which are now seen as overvalued by a net 79 percent. Bonds are also perceived as the asset class most vulnerable to increased volatility this year.

Despite exuberance over Europe, the global growth outlook is little changed. This reflects declining expectations on China. A net 58 percent of respondents now expect that country’s economy to weaken over the next 12 months, the survey’s lowest reading on this measure in nearly two years.

“The ECB has successfully vanquished global deflation fears and induced the return of reflation trades in February,” said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch Research. “Sentiment has gotten ahead of the fundamentals on European equities. It is as if there is not a single bear left. We will need to see a strong recovery very soon to keep the bulls happy,” said Manish Kabra, European equity and quantitative strategist.

Eurozone only

Investors’ new bullishness on Europe is strongly focused on the Eurozone. Non-Euro markets are out of favor. Last month, France and Italy stood out as their worst picks, but a net 42 percent of regional fund managers now intend to underweight the U.K. and Switzerland this year. They have also shifted to a negative stance on Sweden.

Autos are now European regional investors’ favored sector. A net 26 percent are overweight, a month-on-month gain of 12 percentage points. The travel and leisure area has also gained support with a 10-point rise.

In contrast, banks and insurers saw notable declines in sentiment. Month-on-month falls of 32 and 20 percentage points, respectively, have taken both into underweight territory. Utilities are now the region’s least favored sector.

Inflation fuelled

Anxiety over potential Eurozone deflation has declined with the ECB’s QE announcement. Indeed, inflation expectations are picking up. A net 29 percent of fund managers expect global core CPI to be higher in a year’s time, up from a net 14 percent a month ago.

A potential geopolitical crisis is now clearly respondents’ major tail risk. One in three identifies it as their major concern.

Gold glisters again

China’s weakening outlook is weighing on Global Emerging Markets equities, but net underweights on GEMs have declined by 12 percentage points since January to a net 1 percent.

Sentiment towards gold is also improving. Forty percent of survey participants expect the price to be higher in 12 months’ time. Last month, bears on the precious metal still outnumbered bulls.

Only a net 3 percent now considers gold overvalued, compared to a net 20 percent as recently as December.

Many investors continue to see value in oil. A net 39 percent regard crude as undervalued, down slightly from January’s reading.