Aegon Asset Management created the role of Director of U.S. Consultant Relations, in the middle of December. Fulfilling the new position is Ainsley Borel, who is responsible for distribution of the institutional investment strategies and services offered by Aegon Asset Management’s U.S. member companies to insurers, pension plans, and other benefit plans.
Aegon Asset Management is the global, active investment management arm of Aegon N.V., with centers of investment expertise in Europe and the United States and distribution across the Americas, Europe and Asia. The Aegon Asset Management U.S. member companies include Aegon USA Investment Management, LLC, a SEC-registered investment adviser and manager of fixed income and asset-allocation investment strategies, and Aegon USA Realty Associates, LLC, a real estate asset manager.
«Building strong relationships with institutional consultants is an important element of Aegon Asset Management’s growth strategy in the United States,» said Tom Neukranz, Head of Distribution for Aegon Asset Management U.S. «We are very pleased to have a veteran of Ainsley’s caliber and experience join us in expanding and enhancing relations with the consultant community.»
During 22 years in the investment industry, Borel has managed the distribution of both off-the-shelf investment products and customized investment solutions. Most recently, Borel was a senior vice president and senior consultant relationship manager at Northern Trust Asset Management, responsible for relationships with major domestic and global investment consulting firms.
«Aegon Asset Management U.S. offers what consultants and their clients are looking for in a quality asset manager – a well-defined investment process, strong product line, and experienced investment teams,» said Borel. «I am eager to begin sharing the Aegon Asset Management story with them.»
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrStephen Acheson, director ejecutivo en Standard Life Investments. Foto cedida. Aumenta el apetito por el riesgo entre las aseguradoras europeas
De acuerdo con una encuesta realizada por Standard Life Investments, las aseguradoras europeas se sienten con pocas probabilidades de generar suficientes rendimientos para todos sus asegurados; además coinciden en que los cambios regulatorios hacen difícil que los modelos de negocio tradicionales puedan fortalecer sus fuentes de ingresos y les permitan hacer los cambios estratégicos necesarios en la asignación de activos.
La encuesta destaca cinco áreas:
Cada vez más, las aseguradoras europeas tendrán más retos a la hora de generar rendimientos suficientes para cumplir con las tasas garantizadas a los asegurados. El rendimiento esperado del 2,4% (de acuerdo con la exposición actual) es inferior al 2,7% que en promedio se necesita para cumplir con las obligaciones.
En respuesta, muchas aseguradoras europeas están considerando emprender importantes cambios estratégicos en su asignación de activos para mejorar el rendimiento.
Entre esos cambios, el apetito por el riesgo parece estar aumentando. La mitad de las aseguradoras esperan reducir su exposición a renta fija soberana, mientras que más del 60% espera aumentar sus asignaciones a bienes raíces y/o alternativos.
Sin embargo, la encuesta pone de manifiesto una brecha «norte/sur» en la asignación de activos, con los países del sur de Europa con mayor confianza en las estrategias de inversión existentes, debido en parte al comportamiento de su renta fija soberana.
Solvencia II afecta la libertad de inversión de las aseguradoras.
El 73% de las aseguradoras indicaron que la próxima Directiva de la UE está afectando a la forma de diseñar las carteras de inversión.
Cada vez se hace más atractivo el utilizar mandatos de inversión.
El 44% de las aseguradoras europeas buscan externalizar la gestión de una o más clases de activos.
El modelo de negocio y la rentabilidad del sector asegurador están bajo presión por un cambio estructural.
El 43% de las aseguradoras declaró no poder fijar un precio competitivo para nuevos productos de inversión garantizados.
Stephen Acheson, director ejecutivo en Standard Life Investments, dijo: “Las estrategias de negocio de las aseguradoras europeas y de los modelos de negocio tradicionales están siendo desafiados fundamentalmente debido a un entorno de bajos retornos, Solvencia II y la continua necesidad de cumplir con las garantías prometidas». En su opinión, la encuesta deja clara la tendencia de las aseguradoras hacia una externalización de la gestión en la industria de gestión de activos.
Sin embargo, también destaca la creencia entre las aseguradoras de que el número de posibles mandatarios está disminuyendo. «Es importante recordar que Solvencia II fue concebido y desarrollado en un entorno económico muy diferente… En el Reino Unido el PRA ha señalado recientemente que, como consecuencia de las bajas tasas de interés, el margen de riesgo está dando lugar a mayores requerimientos de capital, así como volatilidad”. Acheson considera que, tomando esto en cuenta, las cuestiones relativas al desarrollo e implementación de Solvencia II en las que la industria europea ha estado trabajando en los últimos años seguramente continuarán más allá del 1 de enero de 2016.
Looking at emerging market equities, there is reason to believe the tide is about to turn for the better. It is, however, likely to be a divergent and volatile process but 2016 should be a good opportunity to selectively start to build up exposure to emerging markets again, especially as the downside risks have fallen.
There are four main reasons behind our careful optimism.
First, emerging markets have not wasted the crisis. Most major emerging markets’ currencies have adjusted more than the EUR, which has dropped 20% against the USD over the past five years. Similarly, the current account adjustment has been significant and especially important in economies like Turkey, Poland and India that use to run large deficits.
Second, emerging markets offer the best value, growth and yield combination. There is a big spread in absolute and relative valuations across the emerging universe, but most emerging markets are expected to trade lower than their respective five-year valuation average in 2016 with emerging markets at a 15% compared to 5% for developed markets. Emerging markets are not only cheaper in absolute and relative terms than developed markets, they are also expected to have higher earnings growth and dividend yields.
Third, the EM/DM growth ratio will re-accelerate. The relative growth ratio between emerging and developed markets seems to be correlated with the relative stock market performance. IMF expects emerging markets’ growth to gradually accelerate from 4% this year to 5.3% in 2020 while developed markets’ growth will stay flat around 2% over the same period. This means that the DM/EM growth ratio, which has fallen during the past five years, is set to start a five-year re-acceleration in 2016.
Finally, US rate hikes tend to be supportive for emerging market equities. Perhaps contrary to popular perception, emerging market assets tend to outperform the year after a US rate hike. The reasons are very basic but nevertheless fundamental; economies adjust and markets discount the rate move ahead of time, and the reason for hikes – that the US economy is doing rather well – is supportive for emerging economies.
According to Michael Hasenstab, Chief Investment Officer at Templeton Global Macro, “at the start of 2016, we are encouraged by the vast set of fundamentally attractive valuations across the global bond and currency markets. We expect continued depreciation of the euro and yen, rising US Treasury yields, and currency appreciation in select emerging markets.”
During the next year, the investment professional expects a dichotomy of Monetary Policies, with rising interest rates from the US Federal Reserve and Quantitative Easing from the BOJ and ECB. Hasenstab also mentions that “fears of global deflation are unwarranted” and that him and his team “do not anticipate a global recession.” Their growth projections for 2016 are 2%–3% for the United States, above 1% for the eurozone, around 1% for Japan and between 6% and 7% for China. In regards to the Asian giant, Hasenstab believes that newer sectors such as the service one, will fuel wage growth and help support consumption.
Looking at Emerging markets, the Franklin Templeton expert believes that Solvency will not be a mayor issue in the area. “Emerging markets were often regarded as being in near-crisis condition during the second half of 2015. We believe concerns of a systemic crisis have been exaggerated” says Hasenstab, adding that commodity exporters, and emerging markets with poor macro fundamentals, remain vulnerable. Therefore, “investors should not view the emerging-markets asset class as a whole but should instead selectively distinguish between individual economies.” Hasenstab highlights Mexico and Malaysia as countries with strong fundamentals and solid domestic sources of financing, which will allow them to raise interest rates either in conjunction with US interest-rate hikes or shortly thereafter, while countries like Turkey or South Africa will most likely be negatively impacted by US interest-rate hikes.
Still, he believes that “an unconstrained global strategy is the most effective way to position for a rising-rate environment because it provides access to the full global opportunity set.” For 2016 he remains optimist, “we are encouraged by the vast set of fundamentally attractive valuations across the global bond and currency markets.” And favors currencies “in countries where inflation is picking up and growth remains healthy, yet the local currency remains fundamentally undervalued. Looking ahead, we expect continued depreciation of the euro and yen, rising US Treasury yields, and currency appreciation in select emerging markets,” he concludes.
The value of European private equity deals through 2015 has hit its highest level since 2007, according to data published by the Centre for Management Buyout Research.
So far the total value of all deals stands at €80.9bn, the highest yearly total since 2007, when the value hit €172.9bn. This is also the fourth highest year recorded by CMBOR, behind 2007, 2006 and 2005 respectively.
Currently, the total exit value in Europe is estimated at €153.2bn, which is a new record according to the methodology; IPOs and trade sales set records at €48.7bn and €63.8bn respectively.
CMBOR’s latest annual report suggests there were many bigger deals helping to drive the private equity market on this past year. Some 19 deals worth more than €1bn were recorded, against 13 the previous year. These bigger deals account for about half the total value of the European buyout market. Such deals were also geographically spread “with Switzerland (1), Denmark (1), France (3), Germany (4), Sweden (1), Austria (1), Spain (1) and the UK (7) all seeing deals of €1bn and over during the course of the year.”
“The spread of large deals across Europe, suggests a resurgence in the private equity market across the continent. For instance, Belgium has had a particularly strong year with total value of deals at €3.2bn, just below the 2007 record value, while Denmark has had its strongest year since 2006 (€4.8bn). Switzerland and Austria also had impressive years with the total value of deals in 2015 standing at €3.7bn and €2.6bn respectively, which in both cases are record values,” CMBR said.
And while the UK retains its position as the strongest European deal market, with value totalling €26.8bn, France has seen a rebound putting it on par with Germany.
Other findings in the data point to strong deal flows in manufacturing and retail, but less so in technology, media and telecommunication. The value of deals in the support services sector remained fairly constant, at around €9bn compared to €9.3bn in 2014.
Christian Marriott, Investor Relations partner at Equistone Partners Europe Limited, which sponsored CMBOR’s research, said: “2015 has been a very strong year for European private equity deal activity, with the UK still leading the way. However, all the core European markets have performed well, which reflects the trend of a consistent increase in total European buyout value of about €10bn since 2013. Boosted by the Verallia buyout, France has been strong in 2015 and made up previously lost ground on Germany, which in recent years has firmly established itself as Europe’s second biggest deal market behind the UK.”
“The European private equity exit market also had an outstanding 2015, achieving a record total value. While volatility in European markets stifled the IPO activity in the previous two quarters, a flurry of big IPOs at the end year, including Worldpay and Scout24, helped the boost the value to a record number. However, it has not all been about IPOs, as there have been more exits via trade sales than flotations amongst the year’s top 10 largest deals.”
“2015 clearly shows that big deals are back, as shown by the highest average deal value and number of billion plus deals since 2007. With the final quarter proving strong for both deals and exits, the European private equity market will start 2016 with positive momentum.”
Foto: Pablo Fernández. La inversión responsable: ¿zona de conflicto para los fondos de pensiones?
El escándalo de las emisiones de Volkswagen parece que va a impulsar la inversión ambiental, social y de buen gobierno (IRS, por sus siglas en español o ESG, por sus siglas en inglés), pero los fondos de pensiones que adopten este enfoque se enfrentan a posibles conflictos de intereses, advierte el último número de The Cerulli Edge – Global Edition.
«Las posibles implicaciones legales de mirar más allá de los rendimientos puros a la hora de tomar decisiones de inversión deben ser analizadas,» dice Barbara Wall, directora de investigación en Europa de Cerulli Associates. La Comisión de Derecho del Reino Unido, por ejemplo, dice que los gestores no deben proceder con una decisión motivada por factores no financieros si se corre el riesgo de causar un perjuicio financiero significativo al fondo. Sin embargo, como señala Cerulli, esto puede reducirse a una cuestión de grado: en un caso, un tribunal dictaminó que «se había actuado dentro de la ley al decidir que la exclusión de 13% del mercado sería aceptable, mientras que excluir el 37% no lo sería».
Al afectar a millones de vehículos a nivel mundial, la acción fraudulenta de Volkswagen puede incluso poner en peligro la existencia de la automotriz alemana. Cerulli dice que los fondos de pensiones con exposición a Volkswagen tienen derecho a sentirse ofendidos; no sólo por la pérdida causada en las valoraciones de sus carteras, sino también por el daño a la salud y al medio ambiente causados a la sociedad en general.
«¿Un enfoque en la ESG habría evitado invertir en Volkswagen? Probablemente no, porque ningún gestor de fondos podría haber previsto el fraude en una empresa como la automovilística», dice Wall. «Pero al sondear las estructuras de gobierno de las empresas y tener una comprensión completa de sus incentivos de gestión, los inversores deberían estar en mejores condiciones de identificar a los más vulnerables a eventos sorpresa», dice.
En los últimos 10 años la iniciativa de las Naciones Unidas sobre Principios para la Inversión Responsable (UNPRI) ha pasado de alrededor de 100 signatarios con 4 billones de dólares (3,7 billones de euros) en activos bajo gestión a 1.260 firmantes con 45 billones en AUM. Cerulli cree que esta tendencia de crecimiento continuará.
Durante mucho tiempo, diversos inversores han tenido exclusiones específicas dentro de sus directrices de inversión; entidades basadas en la fe, por ejemplo, o no invertir en armas y tabaco. Sin embargo, la inversión sostenible se ha movido mucho más allá, desde la exclusión pasiva hacia un enfoque activista que abarca cuestiones fundamentales, entre las que, el día de hoy se incluyen las relacionados con emisiones de dióxido de carbono y sus efectos en el cambio climático. El fondo de pensiones holandés ABP anunció en octubre que pedirá a todas las empresas en su cartera de inversiones que detallen cómo operan responsablemente y qué tan sostenibles son.
«Esperamos que más fondos de pensiones empiecen a considerar las inversiones sostenibles, pero los antecedentes culturales y el nivel de sofisticación de los inversores van a ser factores determinantes de cualquier compromiso. Por ejemplo, los fondos de pensiones en los Países Bajos y Dinamarca serán mucho más propensos a hacerlo que, por ejemplo los de Alemania», dice Justina Deveikyte, analista internacional en Cerulli.
Following the closure of the Third Avenue fund earlier this month, liquidity issues are once again at the forefront of investor’s minds when it comes to the high yield market. Ultimately, conditions will only improve with structural changes to the market but in the meantime we think there are several steps that can be taken to help improve the underlying liquidity profile of a high yield portfolio.
Buy and Hold – by keeping portfolio churn low and buying securities with a view to a long term holding period and accepting that there will be some price volatility, the liquidity needs of a portfolio are automatically curtailed. This also means corporate fundamentals and the underlying credit worthiness of an issuer over the long term are bought more sharply into focus at the point any purchase is made. The question “Would I be happy to hold this bond through periods of market distress” is a good one to ask. If the answer is “yes”, then the chances of finding a buyer during such periods are greatly enhanced.
Stick to larger bond issues – The bigger the bond issue, the greater the investor base and the greater chance of being able to match a buyer and a seller (we illustrate this below by comparing the recorded activity trade activity for a $4.28bn bond, and a $200m bond issued by the same company). However, this can be a double-edged sword. The larger a bond issue, the more likely it is to be a constituent of an ETF portfolio which can be disadvantageous during periods of large redemptions.
December 17th 2015 Trade History for Sprint 7.875% 2023, $4.28bn outstanding:
December 17th 2015 Trade History for Sprint 9.25% 2022, $200m outstanding:
Diversify by market – Trading environments can and often do differ in different markets. A portfolio that can invest across the range of ABS, financials, corporate, sovereigns, emerging markets, fixed rate or floating rate, Europe or the US can often exploit better liquidity conditions in one market when another is facing difficulty.
Use liquid proxies – The daily volume that trades in the synthetic CDS index market is an order of magnitude greater than the physical cash market. Keeping part of a portfolio in such instruments provides access to a deeper pool of liquidity and can provide a useful buffer in periods when the physical market conditions worsen. However, there is an opportunity cost in terms of stock selection that needs to be considered.
Keep cash balances higher – The most effective way to boost liquidity in a portfolio is the simplest: hold more cash. 5% is the new 2%. Again, there are opportunity costs in terms of market exposure and stock selection, but the benefits in terms of liquidity are immediate and tangible.
It’s important to stress that none of these measures are a silver bullet, but they are mitigants. They can buy time and help investors tap liquidity. In today’s high yield markets, the question of how a portfolio’s liquidity is managed has become just as important (if not more so) than its investment position
Opinion column by James Tomlins from M&G Investments
According to Deutsche Bank Markets Research’s latest report, the global ETP industry continued to grow during November. After net inflows totaling US$ 34 billion in October, the November figure was a further US$ 25.7 billion. As such, the industry now manages US$ 2.9 trillion. As in the previous month, the American ETP sector was the driver of this growth. It contributed US$ 26 billion to global growth. Since the start of the yearUS ETPs have secured virtually US$ 200 billion. In keeping with the previous month, inflows from Equity ETFs dominated with US$ 25 billion.
The trend for Bond ETFs turned negative in November. In contrast to worldwide inflows of US$ 14.5 billion for this segment in October, during the month just past investors withdrew US$ 47 million. Inflows also declined for Commodities ETCs. After a plus of US$ 789 million in October, the past month saw a minus of US$ 153 million. In parallel with the American ETP sector, the European ETF sector continued to grow during November. Following net inflows of US$ 6.9 billion for October, the sector secured US$ 3.4 billion in November. Equity ETF inflows also dominated in this case. Conversely, Asian ETPs saw a continuation of the negative trend of the previous month. Investors withdrew US$ 3.7 billion. Equity ETFs were particularly affected with outflows running to US$ 3 billion. In fact, Bond ETFs also recorded a decline.
European ETF Market In and Outflows
Equities:
The positive trend for European ETFs continued during November. In total, the sector recorded net inflows of EUR 3.1 billion, compared with October’s EUR 5.9 billion. This was primarily due to Bond ETFs with net inflows of EUR 515 million which was significantly lower than the previous month (+ EUR 3.5 billion). At the same time, net inflows for Equity ETFs at EUR 2.5 billion were slightly higher than in October (+ EUR 2.4 billion).
ETFs on US Equities were particularly in demand with European investors. With net inflows of EUR 637 million, US Equities accounted for one quarter of positive Equity ETF cash flows, followed by Global Indices (+ EUR 436 million) and Japanese Equities (+ EUR 387 million). This marked a trend change for US Equities after investors withdrew capital totaling EUR 227 million from this segment in October.
Net inflows recorded by ETFs on European Equities fell to EUR 54 million after EUR 1.1 billion the previous month. Since the start of the year, cumulative net inflows recorded by ETFs on broadly-based European Equity Indices total EUR 20.3 billion, although during November the trend showed a slight change with investors withdrawing EUR 279 million from this segment.
The positive shift in ETFs on Emerging Markets continued in November. This segment recorded a further EUR 6 million following EUR 824 million in October. Since the start of the year however, Emerging Markets ETFs have registered total outflows of EUR 1.9 billion. Having said that, during November inflows for ETFs on large Emerging Markets declined, in particular India ETFs where investors withdrew EUR 225 million. Positive inflows were recorded by ETFs on international Emerging Markets Indices. Strategy ETFs achieved a turnaround in November again registering inflows of EUR 178 million, after October’s outflows of EUR 481 million.
Bonds
The positive trend for Bond ETFs also progressed in November, although net inflows of EUR 0.5 billion were significantly lower than the October figure (+ EUR 3.5 billion). In this arena, ETFs on Corporate Bonds accounted for the highest inflows with EUR 1.7 billion. This exceeded the October inflows figure. From an annual viewpoint, Corporate Bonds have registered net inflows amounting to EUR 13.1 billion. The positive trend over recent months for Sovereign Bonds has come to an end for the time being. Investors withdrew EUR 1.3 billion from this segment.
Commodities
European Commodities ETPs registered EUR 166 million in November after EUR 340 million during October. While ETFs on Industrial Metals did once again generate slightly positive cash flows, ETFs on Precious Metals shed EUR 167 million contrasted with October when this segment had made a positive contribution to inflows.
Most Popular Indices
In November, investors showed interest in Real Estate and Dividend ETFs. As such, ETFs on Real Estate Equity Indices in particular came high up the lists.
The most popular Equity Indices in November were the S&P 500, the Euro STOXX 50 as well as the Stoxx 600.
In the Bond arena, ETFs on Corporate Bond Indices in particular proved to be some of the most popular indices.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrFoto: Benontherun, Flickr, Creative Commons. La renta variable lidera las entradas durante noviembre en fondos y ETFs estadounidenses
El proveedor de datos Morningstar presentó recientemente las estimaciones de flujos en fondos de inversión y fondos cotizados (ETFs) durante noviembre de 2015, cifras a las que llega al calcular la variación de los activos en fondos que no se explica por el desempeño del mercado, así como en el caso de los ETFs, calculando el cambio en las acciones en circulación.
De acuerdo con sus datos, continuará la tendencia de las asignaciones hacia la renta variable internacional, así como las posiciones pasivas en los fondos de renta variable de Estados Unidos y fondos de bonos. Los bonos estadounidenses a medio plazo se mantuvieron como una de las categorías más populares en noviembre, mientras que los fondos de renta variable estadounidenses con gestión activa vieron su sexto peor mes de noviembre desde 1993, cuando Morningstar comenzó a rastrear los datos de flujo de activos.
Las salidas de los fondos activos continuaron en noviembre para un número de compañías, incluyendo a PIMCO, Franklin Templeton, Fidelity, y JP Morgan. En el lado pasivo, Vanguard e iShares recaudaron 14.200 y 13.000 millones de dólares respectivamente. Desde el comienzo de la crisis de diciembre de 2007, Vanguard ha recaudado un billón de dólares y desde entonces sólo ha visto salidas netas en dos meses, octubre de 2010 y junio de 2013.
La categoría de bonos high yield ha tenido unos meses muy volátiles en los últimos meses y aterrizó entre las cinco categorías con mayores salidas en noviembre, turbulencia que continuó hasta principios de diciembre, tras el anuncio de que Third Avenue Management planea liquidar su fondo de high yield, Third Avenue Focused Credit, sin permitir a los inversores el redimir sus posiciones de inmediato.
Del lado de las entradas, los cinco fondos activos con los mayores flujos mensuales fueron de renta fija, liderados por PIMCO, y sus 1.200 millones de dólares. T. Rowe Price se estrenó en el ranking con entradas durante noviembre de 741 millones.
As the regulation of European Long-Term Investment Funds (ELTIFs), established by the European Commission to give new impetus to economic recovery in Europe, entered into force on 9 December 2015, the Association of the Luxembourg Fund Industry (ALFI) announced that Luxembourg is prepared and believes it has a key role to play in ensuring the success of ELTIFs.
“The objective of the EU in setting up ELTIFs was to boost smart, sustainable and inclusive growth,” said Denise Voss, Chairman of ALFI. “Take-up of the new funds may be a gradual process, but we believe that Luxembourg has the in-depth experience and expertise required to support fund promoters wishing to launch ELTIFs, and we are ready to assist them.”
Ms Voss continued: “To articulate the essential role of investment funds for the global economy is an important part of the ALFI 2020 Ambition. Luxembourg has practical solutions for ELTIFs, the Luxembourg legal framework offering a wide range of solutions to fulfil the needs of ELTIFs, their managers and investors.”
ELTIFs are an initiative of the European Commission under its Capital Markets Union plan. They are a pan-European regime for Alternative Investment Funds (AIF) which channel the capital they raise into European long-term investments in the real economy in order to achieve growth and create jobs.
The ELTIF represents a milestone in the development of the cross-border European long-term funds business. Their long-term focus distinguishes them from most existing investment vehicles and they are therefore particularly suitable for institutions such as pension schemes and insurance companies with long investment horizons, as well as complementing and diversifying individuals’ savings portfolios.
Like the funds subject to the Alternative Investment Fund Manager Directive (AIFMD) legislation, they must have an authorised alternative investment fund manager, but like UCITS, their pan-European marketing ‘passport’ allows them (under certain conditions) to be sold to individual investors who may not necessarily be classified as professional or sophisticated.
“The leading position of Luxembourg as a true cross-border and fund distribution hub will greatly serve the development of ELTIFs”, Ms Voss concludes.
ALFI has prepared brochure on ELTIFs which gives details on what ELTIFs could look like and what the regulatory requirements are such as the fact that an ELTIF shall not undertake any of the following activities:
Short selling of assets;
Taking direct or indirect exposure to commodities;
Entering into securities lending, securities borrowing, repurchase transactions or any other agreement which has an equivalent economic effect and poses similar risks, if thereby more than 10% of the assets of the ELTIF are affected; and
