TD Ameritrade to Acquire Scottrade

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TD Ameritrade and Scottrade Financial Services, have entered into a definitive agreement for TD Ameritrade to acquire Scottrade in a cash and stock transaction valued at $4 billion.

The transaction combines two highly complementary organizations with long histories of helping millions of people invest in their financial futures. For TD Ameritrade, the transaction adds significant scale to its retail business, extends its leadership in trading, and more than quadruples the size of its branch network.

The company expects to realize approximately $450 million in combined annual expense synergies, and more than $300 million in additional longer-term opportunities. The first 25 percent of the expense synergies are expected to be realized in Year 1 post-close and the remainder realized in Year 2. Furthermore, the transaction is expected to generate double-digit EPS accretion post-conversion.

The transaction, which has been approved by the boards of directors of TD Ameritrade, TD Bank Group (TD) and Scottrade, will take place in two, concurrent steps. First, TD will purchase Scottrade Bank from Scottrade Financial Services, for $1.3 billion in cash consideration. Under the terms of the proposed acquisition, Scottrade Bank will merge with and into TD Bank, N.A., an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of The Toronto-Dominion Bank. Additionally, TD will purchase $400 million in new common equity (11 million shares) from TD Ameritrade in connection with the proposed transaction, pursuant to its preemptive rights.

Then, immediately following that acquisition, TD Ameritrade will acquire Scottrade Financial Services, for $4 billion, or $2.7 billion net of the proceeds from the sale of Scottrade Bank.

The $2.7 billion will be comprised of:

  •     $1.0 billion in new common equity (28 million shares) issued to Scottrade shareholders; and
  •     $1.7 billion in cash, which includes TD Ameritrade cash ($900 million), a new debt offering ($400 million), and the proceeds from the sale of 11 million shares to TD ($400 million).

Additionally, following the transaction’s close, Scottrade Founder and CEO Rodger Riney will be appointed to the TD Ameritrade Board of Directors.

For the 12 months ended Sept. 30, 2016, TD Ameritrade and Scottrade, on a pro-forma combined basis, had $944 billion in total client assets.

“For more than 40 years, TD Ameritrade has been committed to breaking down the barriers that stand between American investors and Wall Street. That means delivering an investing experience grounded in technology and innovation that educates and enables investors with all levels of ability and wealth to work toward their financial goals,” said Tim Hockey, TD Ameritrade president and chief executive officer. “We’ve found in Scottrade a partner with an equally-strong passion and a proven track record for delivering exceptional client experiences. This combination will allow us to leverage our strengths and increase our scale, further accelerate our asset gathering capabilities and introduce our award-winning line-up of trading tools, products and education services to millions of new investors.”

“Since founding Scottrade in 1980, our mission has been to lower the cost of investing and trading while treating clients fairly and honestly. Over the last 36 years, thanks to the tireless efforts of our talented associates, we have expanded our services and evolved the business while maintaining our commitment to helping people overcome barriers to financial success,” said Rodger Riney, Scottrade founder and chief executive officer. “We are confident we have found a great partner in TD Ameritrade, who shares our client-first focus. Joining forces will enable us to offer clients an expanded array of trading tools, enhanced education resources and advanced option capabilities with broader geographic reach. Together, we will be well-positioned to compete in today’s rapidly evolving financial services industry.”

The transaction is subject to regulatory approval and customary closing conditions. The parties expect it to close by Sept. 30, 2017, with an anticipated clearing conversion to TD Ameritrade systems in 2018.

¿Hillary o Trump? ¿Cuánto le importa a los mercados?

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Hillary or Trump? How Much Does it Matter to Markets?
Wikimedia CommonsFoto: BU Rob13 & Gage. ¿Hillary o Trump? ¿Cuánto le importa a los mercados?

La candidata demócrata Hillary Clinton va por delante del republicano Donald Trump en las encuestas de opinión, aunque el margen se ha reducido. ¿Qué significan el resultado y el polémico debate político para la economía global y los mercados financieros? ¿Están aumentando las inquietudes entre los inversores? ¿Es momento de que estos reajusten sus posiciones en la cartera?

Según David Lafferty, estratega en jefe de mercados de Natixis Global Asset Management, cuando hablamos con inversores dentro y fuera de EE.UU., las elecciones presidenciales son casi siempre la primera cuestión en su mente. Nuestra primera reacción es recordar a los inversores que las diferencias entre las propuestas antes de las elecciones siempre son mayores que las diferencias que pudiera haber entre la ejecución postelectoral de uno y otro; un gobierno dividido garantiza que los presidentes solamente obtienen una pequeña parte de lo que desean. En general, esto significa que los inversores tienden a sobreponderar los resultados de las elecciones en las perspectivas de su cartera. «Adivinar si Clinton será una mala influencia para las acciones del sector salud o si Trump tendrá un efecto positivo en las acciones de la industria militar es una manera pobre de construir una cartera duradera».

Además, aún queda algo de tiempo. Según las encuestas del colegio electoral y la mayor recaudación de fondos, Clinton parece ser la favorita. Pero aún faltan unos días, y con estos dos candidatos, todavía caben nueas sorpresas (¿quizá algo relacionado con las declaraciones de la renta  de Donald o de los emails de Hillary?).

Mantenemos nuestra proyección de resultados, pero si el Brexit nos ha enseñado algo, es que apostar por lo convencional es peligroso. Con tantas variables aún desconocidas, incluyendo al ganador de las votaciones, la formación del Congreso, o cómo las propuestas se transformarán en políticas, las implicaciones para el mercado a largo plazo son inciertas. Lo que sí es seguro, es que ningún candidato ha presentado una agenda procrecimiento convincente que reactivaría la economía y los mercados de capitales. Independientemente de quien gane, en Washington probablemente no se generarán grandes cambios políticos, aunque puede surgir una modesta reforma fiscal corporativa. Si bien las implicaciones de retorno a largo plazo son inciertas, aún creemos que la condición de novato de Trump y su falta de historial político lo convertirán en una fuente de más volatilidad en el corto plazo.

Las conclusiones de la más reciente encuesta de asesores financieros 2016 de la gestora , dada a conocer a finales de septiembre, en que se preguntó sobre una serie de dudas relacionadas con el impacto esperado de las elecciones presidenciales estadounidenses en los mercados muestran tendencias entre quienes gestionan el dinero de los clientes y distinguen la diferencia de opinión entre aquellos en EEUU y fuera del país”, añade David Goodsell, director ejecutivo del Centro de investigación de construcción de carteras duraderas de la firma.

Los asesores financieros estadounidenses parecen ser ambivalentes o no estar convencidos sobre lo que tendrá el mayor impacto positivo en cinco factores clave: el mercado de valores, el mercado de deuda, la economía global, el comercio global y el riesgo geopolítico. Al darles a elegir entre Clinton, Trump, cualquiera o ninguno, 40% de los participantes en EE.UU. eligió “ninguno” para todos los factores con excepción de comercio global, donde el 32% opina que Clinton lo hará mejor, y en riesgo geopolítico, donde Clinton recibió el mayor número de respuestas con 35%. Fuera de EEUU,  parece que los profesionales financieros opinan que Hillary Clinton tendría un impacto más positivo en todos los factores. Las estadísticas de Clinton están entre la media de 40% y 50%, mientras que quienes creen que Trump traerá un mejor resultado son los menos. Existen variaciones de país a país. Pero en general, la opinión de los asesores es relativamente consistente en cada país.

¿Qué opinan los asesores sobre el próximo Presidente¿

Mercados de capital

  • Los participantes estadounidenses de más de 47 años creen que Trump será mejor para el mercado (34%) comparado con Clinton (21%) mientras que 37% dijo que ninguno de los dos.
  • 57% de las asesoras femeninas globalmente, creen que Clinton será mejor para el mercado de capitales.

Mercado de deuda

  • 47% de los asesores a nivel global dan ventaja a Clinton para los bonos, comparado con 14% que opina que Trump será mejor opción.
  • Colombia (65%), Chile (61%), España (57%), Italia (55%) y Panamá (55%) reportan una mayor inclinación hacia Clinton para con los bonos. Francia es un ejemplo de variación significativa de esta tendencia con 47% de los asesores que no prefieren a “ninguno.”

Economía global

  • 43% de las mujeres asesoras en EEUU opinan que Clinton será mejor influencia para la economía global comparada con el 19% que están a favor de Trump.
  • Globalmente, 44% de los asesores favorecen a Clinton y su influencia en la economía global, 27% dicen que a ninguno, 16% favorecen a Trump y 13% opinan que es un empate.

Riesgo Geopolítico

  • 42% de los asesores independientes en EEUU y 45% de las mujeres asesoras de dicho país creen que Clinton es mejor para reducir el riesgo geopolítico. Para las mujeres a nivel global, la cantidad es del 62%.
  • 41% de los asesores con carteras por encima de la media (29.5 millones como muestra del promedio) favorecen a Clinton en cuanto a riesgo geopolítico, 29% dice  que a ninguno y 23% apuestan por Trump.

Por último, Chris Wallis, Gestor de carteras y CEO de Vaughan Nelson Investment Management –filial de Natixis GAM- opina que no hay duda de que Estados Unidos tiene una interesante pareja de candidatos en esta campaña electoral, que ofrecen propuestas muy diferentes en políticas –ya sea en asuntos exteriores, como en aspectos comerciales, fiscales, económicos, sanitarios y de inmigración. “Pero realmente no cree que influya mucho en los mercados y las carteras a largo plazo de los inversores el que Hillary Clinton o Donald Trump ganen en el 8 de Noviembre”.

Si analizamos el historial presidencial estadounidense a lo largo de 180 años, encontraremos que el presidente electo nunca ha tenido un gran impacto en los mercados financieros, explica. La historia también muestra que la volatilidad promedio en el mercado actual es la misma que en los años 1800, a mediados y a finales, y a principios del siglo XX y la posguerra. De nuevo -insiste-, los presidentes estadounidenses por lo general no influyen sobre los mercados financieros, lo que es muy difícil de entender, “porque creemos que las elecciones de cada 4 años son extremadamente importantes y con un impacto enorme”. Pero al tratarse de los mercados, la historia demuestra lo contrario. Si Clinton o Trump ganan, habrá una política   fiscal productiva que estimulará el crecimiento económico en el país, opina.

 

Ricardo Morean se incorpora a Bolton Global

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Ricardo Morean Joins Bolton Global
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrPhoto: fusion-of-horizons. Ricardo Morean se incorpora a Bolton Global

Bolton Global Capital ha anunciado que Ricardo Morean se ha unido a la firma. Con esta incorporación, Bolton pretende aprovechar su exitosa carrera desarrollando los negocios de wealth management internacional de Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo, y RBC donde fue responsable de grandes oficinas en Nueva York, Miami y América Latina.

Morean será responsable del desarrollo de negocio para Bolton Global y para GEA Capital, una consultora filial del grupo con base en Miami y especializada en gestión de activos para instituciones y clientes con grandes patrimonios.

Su última posición ha sido la de Senior Managing Director del International Advisor Group de RBC, cubriendo Latinoamérica y Europa, como director de las oficinas de Miami, Nueva York y San Diego hasta que RBC cerrara su negocio estadounidense para no residentes.

Morean inició su carrera como asesor financiero en Merrill Lynch en 1992. Después de ocupar posiciones senior en desarrollo de negocio y dirección de sucursales en las operaciones de Merrill Lynch en Latinoamérica, en 2005 fue promocionado al puesto de director regional de asesoramiento financiero internacional de las oficinas de Nueva York, Miami y San Diego. Después de que Merrill Lynch fuera adquirido por Bank of America en 2008, se unió a Wells Fargo como director regional con responsabilidad sobre Miami y Nueva York.

Se graduó por la Ohio State University y cuenta con un Master en International Management por el Thunderbird School de la Arizona State University.

Brazil – The Comeback Kid?

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An economy set to rebound. A president committed to implementing reform. A government of competent technocrats. A crackdown on corruption. A set of new CEOs to oversee inefficient state-owned companies. A central bank embarking on a rate cutting cycle. A country with deep, liquid capital markets.

Would anyone believe us if we said this is Brazil?

According to Yacov Arnopolin and Lupin Rahman, emerging market portfolio managers at PIMCO, «before tagging on the requisite caveats, we tip our hat to the country’s impressive turnaround in policymaking. As always, much will ride on the ability to push through fiscal reforms and improve the supply side of the economy. But with confidence in the government returning, Brazil could be set for a comeback ‒ one that could restore nominal interest rates to single digits and put credit rating upgrades back on the table.»

Not politics as usual

On their recent trip to Brazil they witnessed a stark change in what the International Monetary Fund (IMF) called the “counterproductive” politics and policymaking of the previous administration. «Impeachment has paved the way for a centrist, business-friendly government under President Michel Temer, who has a team that can get things done. This coincides with Brazil starting to exit the worst recession in its history and a turn in inflation from double-digit figures earlier in the year.»

They believe the change in sentiment has sparked a strong rally in Brazilian assets, but as the new administration’s honeymoon draws to a close, the country’s prospects ride on reform. Will the government’s proposals be enough to bring about the necessary changes?

Brazil’s challenges ahead

The positive sentiment for Brazil notwithstanding, they see three main risks to President Temer’s plans.

  • Brazil’s debt-to-GDP is set to reach 90% of GDP by the end of this decade. While the vast majority of the debt is in local currency, that level still ranks among the highest in the emerging markets. Reforms cannot change the near-term fiscal and debt path; they can merely seek to avoid an even more dire scenario. And they will take more than one political cycle to be effective.
  • Disinflation could be lower than expected. Years of indexation and supply-side bottlenecks could limit the disinflationary pressures from high unemployment and a large output gap and keep inflation “stuck” at high levels. Moreover, the multiple levels of subsidized lending that de-fanged monetary policy may take years to unwind or simplify.
  • Public opinion may prove to be more sensitive to increasing unemployment and the realities of lower social security and pension benefits. In fact, Brazilian voters still generally favor large governments and a strong social safety net. In addition, Lava Jato (“Operation Car Wash”) corruption investigations could spill over to the government. The risk is that Temer’s popularity fades and political noise around the 2018 election race increases.

The positive scenario

If Temer’s reforms are successful, PIMCO believes they could trigger a virtuous circle of deeper reforms after the 2018 elections. A sustained return of confidence would likely increase foreign direct investment and portfolio flows; and a return of “animal spirits” would lift consumption and prompt faster lift-off for the economy. All of this bodes well for the currency. And while the real is unlikely to have the same uninterrupted climb as in recent months, its high carry of nearly 13% offers a decent cushion against potential weakness.

«The Brazilian Central Bank has recently initiated what we anticipate will be an extended cutting cycle, lowering the overnight rate by 25 bps to 14%. Although the local yield curve is pricing in cuts of just over 320 basis points (bps) to January 2018, we believe the total cycle – subject to meeting the requisite fiscal milestones – could total about 500 bps or more, bringing nominal rates back to single digits. Thus, while local rates are less attractive than they were at the height of the political crisis, they offer potential to rally further, particularly given their starting point which is by far the highest in the G-20! An even bigger prize would be to reduce the high real rate burden the country is facing – nearly 6%. Just as poor fiscal management took Brazilian securities into a downward spiral, reform could improve valuations on Brazilian sovereign and corporate credit versus those of higher-rated EM peers. As a result, we believe the country’s fixed income assets continue to present compelling opportunities.» They conclude.

 

Don’t Let a Busy Fall Calendar Distract You from Longer-Term Fundamentals

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Regular readers of the CIO Weekly Perspectives know that we try to relate our observations on topical news to our medium-term investment outlook. Yet a “weekly” commentary inevitably gets a little caught up in current headlines.

So this week we try to dig beneath the surface of the headlines that are dominating current markets. There are already plenty of deeper indicators of what the world might look like in 2017-18.

An Eventful and Uncertain Fall Ahead

For sure, there’s a lot to dig through between now and the end of the year: quarterly earnings, GDP growth, employment figures, and, of course, central bank policy decisions. After 20 weeks of corporate bond purchases, last Thursday Mario Draghi’s pronouncements left markets looking to December 8 for more hints about whether QE would be extended or “tapered”. Six days later we will have a Federal Reserve announcement likely to increase short-term rates. And, if you haven’t heard, the U.S. has a big vote on November 8, Italy has a tricky referendum to get through on December 4 and Spain may be forced into yet another general election before the end of the year.

These events are likely to move markets—understandably. Some will undoubtedly feature in forthcoming CIO Perspectives. But, as investors become consumed with these current events, storm clouds seem to be gathering and recession risks rising.

Recession Risks Are Rising

Near term economic data looks decent enough. U.S. GDP for the second half of the year will likely show an improvement on the first half and, while it’s early days in the Q3 earnings season, it looks like S&P 500 earnings, while nothing to write home about, will have modestly improved.

Nonetheless, that only brings us to flat earnings growth, year-on-year, and it marks six straight quarters of weak reports. Moreover, the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s National Economic Accounts reveals this to be a problem across U.S. businesses, not just among the S&P 500 elite group of companies.

Housing starts have slowed, retail sales and consumer confidence are softening and employment growth seems to be peaking. The inflation we are experiencing is not benign: non-discretionary costs such as energy, housing and healthcare are rising, but not discretionary costs—a characteristic of recessions, historically. Wages are rising, which will put pressure on companies’ margins. And of greatest concern, credit conditions appear to be tightening: recent editions of the Federal Reserve Board’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) report tightening lending standards for all companies, but especially smaller firms.

We Are Late Into an Elongated Cycle

These are all late-cycle indicators. We should not turn a blind eye to them just because GDP and earnings have ticked up slightly on a weak first half of the year.

Let’s be clear: I’m not calling for a recession to start on January 1, or for investors to sell all their risk assets. Indeed, this has been an elongated business cycle and there is a good chance that it can be elongated still further. Even casual observers of this economic cycle will conclude it has been quite unique. What might lead us to get more optimistic in our outlook? Political leadership doing their job: corporate tax reform, infrastructure investment, and a more sensible regulatory environment.

We have written a lot over recent weeks about the growing probability of extra fiscal stimulus around the world, for example. Central banks have been keeping things afloat for years and will continue to try to do so.

But it’s also true that central banks are conceding the limits of their influence and that politics can easily get in the way of fiscal plans and structural reforms. Even in the best-case scenario, no central bank or government has ever been able to legislate the business cycle out of existence.

So this is just a timely reminder that the cycle will turn at some point, and that a couple of quarters’ headlines can obscure late-cycle dynamics that are appearing in the data. Digging down to these underlying dynamics keeps us relatively cautious on risky assets.

Neuberger Berman’s CIO insight by Joseph V. Amato
 

Cash Allocations are Close to 15-Year Highs

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The BofA Merrill Lynch October Fund Manager Survey shows global investor risk-aversion is growing as cash allocations increase to near-15-year highs. “This month’s cash levels indicate that investors are bearish, with fears of an EU breakup, a bond crash and Republicans winning the White House jangling nerves,” said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at BofA.

Manish Kabra, European equity quantitative strategist, added that, “Although investors see an EU-disintegration as a big tail risk, European fund managers surveyed are more optimistic about the economic growth outlook for the Eurozone and expect stronger inflation.”

Other highlights include:

  • Cash levels jumped from 5.5% in September to 5.8% this month. Investors’ average cash balance was last this high in July 2016 (post-Brexit vote) and in Fall 2001.
  • Investors identify fears of an EU breakup, a bond crash and a Republican winning the White House as the most commonly-cited tail risks.
  • With inflation expectations at a 16-month high and perceptions of developed market equity and bond valuations at record highs, investors are no longer underweight in commodities for the first time since December 2012.
  • Rotation out of healthcare/pharma, REITs and bonds, into banks, insurance, equities, commodities and EM.
  • Investors cite Long high-quality stocks, Long US/EU IG corporate bonds and minimum volatility strategies as the most crowded trades.
  • Allocation to EM equities rises to the highest overweight in 3.5 years, from 24% last month to 31% in October.
  • Allocation to U.S. and Eurozone equities is unchanged from last month, while allocation to UK equities falls to net 27% underweight from net 24%.
  • Allocation to Japanese equities improves modestly to net 3% underweight from net 8% underweight last month.

You can download the report attached.
   

GAM completa la adquisición de Cantab Capital Partners y lanza dos nuevas estrategias cuantitativas bajo el nombre GAM Systematic

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New Quantitative Strategies Launching Under GAM Systematic Name
Foto: waferboard . GAM completa la adquisición de Cantab Capital Partners y lanza dos nuevas estrategias cuantitativas bajo el nombre GAM Systematic

GAM ha completado la adquisición de Cantab Capital Partners, anunciada el pasado 29 de junio. Cantab, un gestor sistemático de multiestrategias con sede en Cambridge, Reino Unido, gestiona 4.100 millones de dólares en activos para clientes institucionales en todo el mundo (a 1 de octubre de 2016). La tecnología de Cantab y su equipo de más de 30 científicos, dirigidos por el Dr. Ewan Kirk, forman la piedra angular de GAM Systematic.

Esta nueva plataforma de inversión será codirigida por Adam Glinsman, CEO de Cantab, y Anthony Lawler, director de Gestión de Carteras en el grupo de Soluciones de Inversiones Alternativas (AIS) de GAM.

Precisamente bajo el nombre de GAM Systematic se lanzarán dos nuevos fondos UCITS -sujeto a aprobación regulatoria- que, basados en las estrategias de inversión y metodología de Cantab, ofrecerán liquidez diaria y se estructurarán para ser efectivos en costes.

La estrategia sistemática neutra de mercado global de renta variable contendrá los modelos centrados en renta variable de Cantab. Invertirá en acciones líquidas a nivel mundial utilizando análisis y sistemas de contratación propios, sin tomar beta del mercado de renta variable. Durante un ciclo de tres años, la estrategia tendrá como objetivo ofrecer atractivos rendimientos con una volatilidad anual del 6-8%.

La estrategia sistemática macro diversificada será un producto multiestrategia, multiactivo, en función del fondo macro base establecido por Cantab, lanzado en 2013. Tratará de generar rendimientos no correlacionados a las clases de activos tradicionales mediante la identificación de las fuentes persistentes y recurrentes de retornos en más de 100 mercados de divisas, renta fija, índices de renta variable y materias primas. Durante el ciclo, se espera que produzca rendimientos atractivos con una correlación insignificante a los mercados tradicionales y la volatilidad anualizada de 10-12%.

 

Despite Positive Asset Flows, Negative Market Impacts Lowered AUM in the European ETF Industry in September

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The latest European ETF Market Review from Thomson Reuters Lipper shows that negative market impacts led—in spite of net inflows—to lower assets under management in the European ETF industry in September (€480.1 bn for September, down from €480.4 bn at the end of August). 

According to Detlef Glow, Head of EMEA research at Thomson Reuters Lipper and author of the report, the decrease of €0.3 bn for September was mainly driven by negative market impacts (-€2.4 bn), while net sales contributed a positive €2.1 bn to the assets under management in the ETF segment.

Other highlights include:

  • Bond ETFs (+€1.3 bn) posted the highest net inflows for September.
  • The best selling Lipper global classification for September was Bond Emerging Markets Global in Local Currencies (+€0.8 bn), followed by Equity Emerging Markets Global (+€0.5 bn) and Equity Global (+€0.5 bn).
  • iShares, with net sales of €1.0 bn, maintained its position as the best selling ETF promoter in Europe, followed by Vanguard (+€0.8 bn) and UBS ETF (+€0.4 bn).
  • The ten best selling funds gathered total net inflows of €3.1 bn for September.
  • Vanguard S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD (+ €0.7 bn), was the best selling individual ETF for September.

You can read the report in the following link.

Lennar cierrra el Lennar Multifamily Venture en 2.200 millones de dólares

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Lennar Announces Final Close of $2.2 Billion Lennar Multifamily Venture
Foto: Bradley Davis. Lennar cierrra el Lennar Multifamily Venture en 2.200 millones de dólares

Lennar Corporation ha anunciado que su filial LMC ha recibido 250 millones de dólares adicionales para su Lennar Multifamily Venture («LMV»), completando así los fondos para este vehículo de inversión en promociones multifamiliares a largo plazo. Con un total de 2.200 millones de dólares, la firma de Miami  está bien capitalizada para promover y poseer comunidades multifamiliares clase A en 25 diferentes mercados clave de Estados Unidos.

Lennar lanzó LMC en 2011, y desde entonces la compañía ha sido uno de los promotores más activos de la nación. La firma tiene actualmente alrededor de 13.300 apartamentos en 45 comunidades -ya funcionando o en construcción-, y contando con estas, sus previsiones de promociones superan los 7.000 millones y más de 23.000 apartamentos. La compañía construye edificios de gran altura, de altura media, y comunidades de apartamentos con jardín.

La propiedad de LMV incluye seis relevantes inversores institucionales: fondos de pensiones extranjeros, fondos soberanos, y compañías de seguros. Lennar también tiene un compromiso de 504 millones en el vehículo.

When Politics and Policy Collide

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Political risk has significant implications for economic growth and market sentiment. While such risk has traditionally been more associated with emerging markets, it has become increasingly apparent in developed markets in the aftermath of the global financial crisis.

Consequently, Standard Life Investments has established an in-house process for examining political risk. The aim is to identify how these risks contribute to policy uncertainty and the subsequent potential for reduced economic growth.

The system categorises risks as either institutional or cyclical, before identifying the precise factors that create a risk to investments. Developed markets most commonly exhibit cyclical risk in the form of elections, and we have isolated three factors that amplify the risk that these cyclical events carry.

  • Populism – the increased popularity of anti-establishment parties and policies
  • Fragmentation – the move of political systems from two party to multi-party regimes, as seen in Spain
  • Polarisation – a hardening of ideological divisions across parties and electorates, as seen in the US

These factors bring added policy uncertainty and the potential for aftershocks following political events in developed markets. By understanding how politics and policy measures are intertwined, we can test the likely effects of political events on investments.

Stephanie Kelly, Political Economist at Standard Life Investments commented “Our approach to political analysis is based on the view that one of the key mechanisms through which political risk is transferred to the investment outlook is through policy uncertainty. The theory suggests that policy uncertainty can reduce growth prospects for an economy because corporate investment slows and consumers delay spending on big ticket items.

“During our analysis of political risk, we assessed the impact of policy uncertainty on a number of major economic and market factors; the results indicate that such an uncertainty shock is usually associated with lower GDP growth, as well as downward pressure on national equity markets and the outlook for interest rates.

“Given that policy uncertainty has a tangible effect on economic and market indicators in developed markets, understanding the political dynamics and structures that drive this uncertainty is crucial.”