Julius Baer announced on the presentation of 2015 half-year results that it has agreed to acquire, for an undisclosed amount, 40% of NSC Asesores, S.A. de C.V. (NSC), the largest independent financial advisory firm in Mexico. NSC, which is based in Mexico City, manages assets of close to US$ 3 billion and has enjoyed strong growth in the past years. The acquisition would mark Julius Baer’s entry in the second largest wealth management market in Latin America.
NSC specialises in discretionary portfolio management and advisory services for high net worth individuals, based on independent and unbiased advice, which makes it a particularly good cultural fit. The company was founded in 1989 and is currently led by its 12 partners, of whom Claudio Núñez acts as CEO and Mariví Esteve as CFO & Head of Strategic Planning. It employs a total staff of 46.
The current management team will continue to run the business independently with the existing staff and pursue the same client-focused strategy. Julius Baer will be represented on the Board of Directors of NSC by two members. Both parties are confident that the future close cooperation will add further growth momentum to NSC’s business development.
The stock market falls in June illustrate the extent to which the financial markets are becoming increasingly dependent on political decisions while at the same time reflecting economic reality less and less. This is the view of Guy Wagner, Chief Investment Officer at Banque de Luxembourg, and his team, published in their monthly analysis, ‘Highlights’.
The lack of agreement between Greece and its creditors hung over the stock markets in June. The S&P 500 in the United States, the Stoxx 600 in Europe, the Topix in Japan and the MSCI Emerging Markets all fell. «The market falls illustrate just how dependent the financial markets have become on political decisions even though these are increasingly divorced from economic reality,» says Guy Wagner, Chief Investment Officer at Banque de Luxembourg and Managing Director of BLI – Banque de Luxembourg Investments. «Provided the political blackmail strategies like those we saw in the negotiations between Greece and its creditors do not lead to a general destabilisation of the financial system, investors are likely to continue to favour equities due to the lack of prospects of an increase in yields on the bond and money markets.»
Static global economic situation
The global economic situation is fairly static, with no major signs of picking up or slowing down. In the United States, activity is getting back to normal after a weak start to the year. In Europe, the economic situation is improving slightly due to the weak euro, albeit without any sign of a significant recovery. In Japan, the economy is continuing to mark time. In emerging markets, there is continuing fragility in several of the major economies, such as China, Brazil and Russia.
Eurozone inflation should stay in positive territory in the coming months
With the stabilisation of oil prices, inflation rates have consolidated at low levels. In the United States, inflation edged up from -0.2% in April to 0% in May. In the eurozone, the inflation rate remained in positive territory, at 0.2% in June compared to 0.3% in May. «Unless oil prices drop back, eurozone inflation should stay in positive territory in the coming months,» says Guy Wagner.
Core eurozone countries’ long rates still unattractive
The upturn in long rates that began at the end of April continued in June. The rise in bond yields affected the peripheral countries rather than the core eurozone countries due to the uncertainty over the situation in Greece. Over the whole month, the 10-year government bond yield rose in Germany, Italy, Spain and the United States. «Despite the rise, the long rates of core eurozone countries are still unattractive. In industrialised countries, US government bond yields are the only valid alternative given that they still have potential to appreciate if deflationary pressures set in,» suggests the Luxembourg economist.
Markets no longer worried by Greece’s possible exit from the eurozone
Despite the uncertainties over Greece, the euro firmed slightly in June. Greece’s possible exit from the eurozone no longer seems to concern the markets unduly, given that there is only a low risk of contagion to other peripheral countries. And given the last news and the deal with Europe. According to Guy Wagner: «Despite the recent stabilisation of the euro, the dollar’s upward trend that began in May 2014 is set to continue as long as a US interest rate hike in the second half of the year remains the most likely scenario.»
Old Mutual Global Investors announces that, subject to shareholder approval, the US $212m Old Mutual Asian Equity Fund managed by Josh Crabb, Head of Asian Equities, will evolve into an equity income generating strategy.
With a target date of 30 July 2015, the Fund will be renamed the Old Mutual Asian Equity Income Fund.
The Fund, which has been managed by Crabb since October 2014, is a sub-fund of the Dublin domiciled Old Mutual Global Investors Series plc umbrella fund. It is managed by Crabb and his team, who are based in Old Mutual Global Investors’ Hong Kong office. Since Josh took over as manager, the Fund has been in the first quartile of its peer group and has delivered 4.18% above the index (MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan) ².
The Fund’s investment objective is evolving based on client demand and the change of name reflects this. The Fund aims to deliver a total return for investors, with a focus on income, as well as capital growth. It will invest in companies from across the market cap spectrum and will aim to pay an above market yield from across the economic cycle.
Old Mutual Global Investors believes this development will benefit clients as they will be able to access the region’s growing dividend stream as well as obtaining above average earnings per share growth. Studies show that the Asia Pacific region over a ten-year cumulative period has paid consistently higher dividends as a percentage of total returns than both the US and Europe, as well as delivering overall higher total shareholder returns.
Crabb has an investment career spanning over 18 years, which includes a proven track record of managing Asian income funds.
Josh Crabb comments: “As the worldwide population ages, the search for income, and in particular equity income, is at the top of the investment agenda. By evolving the Old Mutual Asian Equity Fund into an income fund we are aiming to meet the demands of those investors who look to receive an inflation-proofed income, without sacrificing their capital growth.
According to the latest research from global analytics firm Cerulli Associates, anticipated reforms in Mexico have created opportunities for international asset managers. These findings and more are from Latin American Distribution Dynamics 2015: Economic Challenges at Home Forcing Global Investment Approach, a just-released report developed in partnership between Cerulli Associates and Latin Asset Management.
The Mexican mutual fund industry’s assets under management (AUM) grew by 10% in 2014, marking its third double-digit rise in three years.
The combined AUM of the Afore and mutual fund industries in Mexico stood at over US$277 billion as of year-end 2014, which puts Mexico in the second spot, behind Brazil, in terms of total AUM for locally regulated companies. Yet most market participants acknowledge that AUM should be much, much larger considering the country’s size.
Reforms in both pension and mutual funds are under consideration in Mexico, and the implementation of many new rules are expected to be rolled out soon.
«On the pension side, the new rules include measures to strengthen the social safety net, which will likely lead to larger flows directed at Afore pension managers, and will make the Afore investment regimen more flexible,» explains Thomas V. Ciampi, founder and director of Latin Asset Management. «A big part of this added flexibility will include greater margins for international investment via separate-account mandates.»
«On the mutual fund side, major reform is underway with some structural changes to the industry, as well as a planned rollout of new open-architecture fund platforms that regulators hope will lead to a new era of third-party distribution, new product development, enhanced advisory services, and increasedinvestor sophistication,» Ciampi continues.
It seems European investors followed this old market adage in May 2015, since equity funds faced outflows of €3.1 bn. But, even more noteworthy, the European mutual fund industry faced a slowdown in flows into long-term mutual funds. Those are two of the conclusions of Lipper’s latest monthly snapshot of European fund flow trends (data as at end May 2015).
«That said, the European mutual funds industry still enjoyed net inflows of €16.3 bn into these kinds of products for May, but the flow numbers stood far behind the numbers of the former months of the year. Opposite to April, the majority of the flows went into mixed-asset funds (+€18.9 bn), followed by bond funds (+€1.1 bn), property funds (+€0.6 bn), and commodity funds (+€0.4 bn). On the other side of the table, equity funds faced the highest outflows (-€3.1 bn) from long-term mutual funds, followed by alternative/hedge products (-€1.4 bn) and “other” products (-€0.4 bn)», point out Detlef Glow, Head of EMEA research, who wrote this report.
Key highlights below:
The European funds industry enjoyed net inflows of €16.3 bn into long-term mutual funds for May. Mixed-asset funds (+€18.9 bn) were the best selling asset class overall, followed by bond funds (+€1.1 bn). Meanwhile, equity funds faced net outflows (-€3.1 bn).
Money market products faced overall net outflows of €12.8 bn for May, split into inflows of €1.0 bn into enhanced money market funds and outflows of €13.7 bn from money market funds.
The single market with the highest net inflows for May was once again Italy (+€4.9 bn), followed by Switzerland (+€2.1 bn) and Germany (+€1.5 bn). Meanwhile, Spain (-€1.5 bn), Austria (-€0.4 bn), and Finland (-€.0.2 bn) stood on the other side.
Intesa SanPaolo, with net sales of €2.5 bn, was the best selling group of long-term funds for May, slightly ahead of BlackRock (+€2.5 bn) and Pioneer (+€2.0 bn).
The ten best selling funds gathered inflows of €6.3 bn, 38.98% of the overall inflows for May, showing that fund flows in Europe are highly concentrated.
«For bond funds inflows were driven by funds domiciled in Switzerland (+€1.8 bn), followed by funds domiciled in the international fund hubs (+€0.8 bn), Sweden (+€0.6 bn), France (+€0.5 bn), and Denmark (+€0.4 bn). On the other side Spain (-€1.8 bn) was once again the domicile with the highest net outflows from bond funds, bettered somewhat by funds domiciled in Germany (-€1.1 bn) and Austria (-€0.5 bn)», explained Glow.
Bob Doll / www.youtube.com. Así va la quiniela de Bob Doll para 2015: cuatro aciertos, cuatro interrogantes y dos predicciones incorrectas
A principios de este año Robert C. Doll, senior portfolio manager de renta variable en Nuveen Asset Management, aventuró que el 2015 sería el año en que los inversores transitarían de la incredulidad a la confianza, o del escepticismo al optimismo. Sir John Templeton acuñó la expresión de que los mercados alcistas nacen en el pesimismo, crecen en el escepticismo, maduran en el optimismo y mueren en la euforia. Nueveen cree que estamos entrando en la fase del “optimismo”.
A estas alturas del año, Doll afirma que el 2015 va en camino a ser otro año aceptable para la renta variable estadounidense a medida que experimentamos:
Un sólido impulso en el crecimiento económico estadounidense con baja inflación
Un repunte en los gastos de consumo basados en el crecimiento del empleo, la confianza y un efecto positivo sobre la riqueza
Un crecimiento sólido de los beneficios
Un estímulo de los bajos precios de las materias primas y los costos de financiamiento
Un contexto de liquidez aún favorable gracias a los estímulos de los bancos centrales no estadounidenses.
“Creemos que estas afirmaciones se mantienen esencialmente constantes, tal como se reflejara en las predicciones que hicimos al principio del año”. Estas son las pronósticos que Bob Doll hizo en enero y así han evolucionado:
El PIB de EE.UU. crece un 3% por primera vez desde 2005: Aunque todavía creemos que EE.UU. crecerá un 3% para el resto del año, el débil primer trimestre hará más difícil que el conjunto del año promedie esa cifra.
La inflación subyacente sigue contenida, pero el crecimiento de los salarios comienza a ser mayor: La inflación estadounidense parece estar tocando fondo a medida que va de niveles muy bajos a bajos.
La Reserva Federal sube las tasas de interés, ya que las tasas a corto plazo aumentan más que las de largo plazo: Tanto la rentabilidad de los bonos estadounidenses a corto como a largo plazo ha comenzado a subir, anticipándose a la subida de los tipos de interés de la FED, que esperamos empiece en septiembre.
El Banco Central Europeo instituye un programa de flexibilización cuantitativa a gran escala. Esto ocurrió en enero, y los efectos se están observando en Europa, donde el crecimiento está mejorando en cierta media.
Por primera vez desde 2006, EE.UU. contribuye más que China al crecimiento del PIB mundial.Como resultado de la mejoría del crecimiento EE.UU. y la desaceleración del crecimiento de China, esta predicción va por buen camino.
La renta variable estadounidense disfruta de otro buen año aunque volátil, a medida que las ganancias corporativas y el valor del dólar aumentan: Este es el séptimo año de mercado alcista en los Estados Unidos. El S&P 500 nunca ha aumentado durante siete años calendario consecutivos, sin embargo, esto es una posibilidad evidente en el 2015, aunque sea por una cifra modesta.
Los sectores de tecnología, salud y telecomunicaciones superan a los de servicios públicos, energía y materiales:Si estuviéramos calificando estas predicciones por su grado de precisión, ésta estaría encabezando la lista. Al cierre del mercado de la semana pasada, los sectores de EE.UU. que señalamos han subido a 6,6% para el año mientras que los otros tres han bajado un 3,7%.
Los precios del petróleo caen aún más antes de cerrar el año por encima de donde comenzaron:Los precios del petróleo cayeron a principios del año antes de experimentar una recuperación. Si el año terminara hoy, esta predicción sería acertada.
Los fondos de renta variable estadounidense muestran sus primeras suscripciones significativas desde 2004.Los flujos de los fondos de renta variable han sido negativos en lo que va de este año, ya que los inversores han estado retirándose de las acciones estadounidenses. Esperamos que la confianza de la inversión se recupere y que las entradas aumenten, pero es probable que quedemos en el lado equivocado de esta predicción.
Las nominaciones presidenciales republicanas y demócratas permanecen bien abiertas. La lista de candidatos republicanos es más larga de lo que prácticamente cualquiera haya previsto. Si bien Hillary Clinton sigue siendo la favorita en el partido demócrata, su candidatura no está libre de obstáculos.
Mirando hacia el futuro
Por todo esto, y a modo de resumen, Bob Doll explica: “Mientras que la renta variable estadounidense ya no es una ganga, creemos que ofrece más valor que otros activos financieros y debería superar a la liquidez, la renta fija, la inflación y a las materias primas. Aunque la renta variable probablemente siga avanzando, es previsible que el ritmo de ganancias sea más lento de lo que inversores experimentaron durante los primeros seis años de este mercado alcista. Creemos que es probable que la renta variable de EE.UU. logre promedios de rendimiento anuales alrededor de un solo dígito, en el rango de medio a alto. Dentro del mercado de renta variable estadounidense, preferimos valores recurrentes de ciclo medio, compañías que pueden generar flujos de caja libre positivos y aquellas con altos niveles de ganancias a nivel domestico”.
All market prices are as on 6/26/15 according to Morningstar Direct, Bloomberg and FactSet
UBS has confirmed that William Kennedy will succeed to Andreas Schlatter as global head of Distribution for its global asset management business after Reuters has revealed a UBS internal memo.
Kennedy will take up his new duties in mid-September and will be based in Zürich. He will report to Ulrich Koerner, president of UBS Global Asset Management.
“With his strong client focus, his thorough knowledge of products and his wide network across units, William Kennedy is the ideal candidate to lead the further transformation of our global distribution organisation,” said the memo which was reported by Reuters and signed by Koerner and UBS Wealth Management president Juerg Zeltner.
Prior to this, Kennedy was head of Investment Products and Services at UBS AG.
UBS Global Asset Management had €616bn in assets under management as at 31 March 2015.
Dagong Europe has published a commentary entitled Luxury Industry: Grow Big or Stay Niche – Upcoming Season Trends. The commentary gives an overview of the main trends and developments in the luxury industry, examining the drivers in its future development. It also considers the comparative positioning, strategies and market approaches of the main luxury players, focusing on the strengths and weaknesses of the changing Chinese market.
«The global luxury market grew +3.3% in 2014, the lowest since 2009, underpinned by the subdued European economy, the recent US recovery and changing consumer habits in the Asia-Pacific region”, says Richard Miratsky, Head of the Corporates Analytical Team.
«While the luxury sector is dominated, in terms of revenues, by the three major European brand-aggregators, the niche approach of smaller players has proven successful in the super-premium segment. Although very different, both strategies are effective in the current market conditions, if strong brand identity is supported by extraordinary customer experience, excellent service, effective media communication and wise geographic store location – the key drivers of success in luxury», concludes Mr Miratsky.
«Future developments in China’s rapidly slowing luxury market are a major concern for the main players. In 2014 luxury market revenues in China reached EUR 16.8Bn, up by 4.3% year-on-year” adds Marta Bevilacqua, Director of the Corporates Analytical Team. “European players will have to manage the Euro depreciation that is encouraging the Chinese habit of travel-for-luxury shopping and undermining the sector’s margins; and the anti-bribery campaign which has constrained the historically high volumes of absolute-luxury gift-giving”, concludes Ms Bevilacqua.
Dagong Europe expects the European majors to employ new strategies to refocus on personal luxury, relying not only on brands but on quality, and implementing new value propositions to encompass the affordable luxury segment.
Main findings:
Luxury sector to sustain mild growth in the medium term, despite the subdued world economy. Emerging markets, led by China, should support industry growth at lower-than-before averages, but volatile macro patterns and political interference poses significant uncertainties.
Although size carries weight in the luxury industry, smaller players can defend their niches. Large groups can build on their extensive knowledge and experience in creating and maintaining a strong multi-brand environment. Significant synergies and economies of scale in logistics, marketing, sales channel development and back-office functions can also be achieved. For smaller players, niche strategy has been effective only where product quality and brand perception have justified extra-premium prices.
Two crucial attributes emerging behind success in the luxury sector: the combining of history and innovation. Successful brands are able to blend the past, evoking the brand attributes and distinctive style, with new technologies, enhanced services, alternative retail channels and new customer experiences.
Although the mega-mergers of the past are unlikely to re-occur, we expect a substantial number of smaller deals in the coming years. The luxury sector is quite fertile ground in terms of deals and M&A transactions, with the majority of deals closed in Europe. 202 acquisitions took place globally in 2000-14.
SMEs operating in the luxury sector have been historically reluctant to tap the financial markets. The root causes are historical family ownership of luxury companies that have grown on brand recognition, linked to iconic founders and a view that long-established brand unicity is compromised by ownership dilution. Instead, bank debt, equity injections and strong cash flows have historically been the standard funding sources for investment.
Considering the qualitative and quantitative factors, our peer group of European major companies is generally well-positioned within the mid-to-low investment grade range. Although intrinsically different, LVMH and Hermès both position strongly among luxury peers due to their strong financial profiles and successful, divergent strategies. We see Prada as the weaker peer due to its need to streamline the business model and strategy.
www.syzgroup.com. SYZ adquiere la filial de banca privada de Royal Bank of Canada en Suiza
El grupo bancario suizo SYZ ha firmado un acuerdo para adquirir Royal Bank of Canada (Suisse) SA. Con unos activos gestionados de 10.000 millones de francos suizos, la banca privada suiza de Royal Bank of Canada tiene presencia principalmente en Latinoamérica, África y Oriente Medio, unos mercados que complementan los del Grupo SYZ, que tras la adquisición pasará a gestionar activos por valor de casi 40.000 millones de francos suizos. Esta adquisición permite a SYZ ampliar su presencia geográfica, elevar sus beneficios y conseguir importantes sinergias.
Con la adquisición de Royal Bank of Canada (Suisse) SA, los activos gestionados del negocio de banca privada del Grupo SYZ se duplicarán hasta casi 22.000 millones de francos suizos, con lo que entra en el grupo de las 20 mayores entidades de banca privada de Suiza. En total, incluyendo las divisiones de Asset Management y Wealth Management, el Grupo gestionará activos por valor de casi 40.000 millones de francos suizos.
Todos nuestros clientes se beneficiarán de la reconocida excelencia del Grupo SYZ en gestión de activos y podrán seguir disfrutando de los rasgos específicos que han hecho posible el éxito de RBC Suisse, en especial la acreditada trayectoria de sus equipos en los mercados emergentes, sus reconocidas competencias y la calidad de su servicio.
“Esta adquisición permitirá a Banque SYZ acceder a nuevos mercados en Latinoamérica, África y Oriente Medio, donde se está desarrollando un fuerte espíritu emprendedor, que es uno de nuestros principios fundacionales. También constituye un gran paso adelante en la estrategia de crecimiento del Grupo. Estoy muy satisfecho por poder dar la bienvenida a estos profesionales a nuestra organización y creo firmemente que nos beneficiaremos enormemente de sus numerosas aptitudes”, señaló Eric Syz, CEO del Grupo.
Esta operación está sujeta a la aprobación de las autoridades suizas.
Patricia Carral, SVP, y Mary Oliva, presidente de International Wealth Protection / Foto cedida. International Wealth Protection anuncia la incorporación de Patricia Carral, reconocida líder en planificación patrimonial
International Wealth Protection ha anunciado que Patricia Carral se ha unido a la firma como Senior Vice President para respaldar su exponencial crecimiento y demanda de estrategias de protección patrimonial.
Patricia Carral ha venido sirviendo a los clientes de alto patrimonio (HNWI) en América Latina durante más de 15 años. Ha formado parte del equipo de banca privada internacional de HSBC y más recientemente se desempeñó liderando la división de Clientes Privados-América Latina para Amicorp Miami. Es una experta de la industria dada su experiencia asistiendo a las familias más adineradas de la región con sus necesidades generacionales de planificación patrimonial. Patricia, miembro del Directorio de STEP en su filial de Miami, ha sido una participante clave en numerosas transacciones de planificación patrimonial que han involucrado instituciones financieras globales, consultoras y asesores contables y legales locales e internacionales y family offices. Es una especialista en identificar y crear las soluciones fiduciarias más sofisticadas y apropiadas para la optimización de la preservación y transferencia patrimonial.
“Me siento honrada de incorporar a Patricia a nuestro equipo, su vasta experiencia fiduciaria beneficiará a nuestros clientes dado que el panorama de la protección y planificación patrimonial evoluciona continuamente en América Latina y demanda estrategias integrales de vanguardia. International Wealth Protection representa la nueva generación de soluciones basadas en los seguros y ser realmente capaces de proveer a nuestros clientes con una plataforma holística lo reafirma”, sentenció Mary Oliva, presidente de International Wealth Protection.
“Mi decisión de unirme a International Wealth Protection deriva del convencimiento de que las soluciones basadas en los seguros desempeñan un papel integral a la hora de desarrollar un plan de sucesión sólido para nuestros clientes multinacionales. La liquidez inmediata provista por los seguros y su favorable tratamiento fiscal en la mayoría de las jurisdicciones les permite disfrutar, acrecentar y proteger su patrimonio para las futuras generaciones por venir”, afirmó Patricia Carral.
