As expected, and in keeping with the minutes from its March meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to keep rates on hold. Importantly, the Federal Reserve Board cited several aspects of the US economy and global conditions that leaves the door ajar for another June or July rate hike.
The Federal Reserve indicated that it would maintain the current level of the target Fed Funds rate at 0.25% to 0.50%, in line with the minutes of the March FOMC meeting.The statement focused on US growth, rather than global conditions.
The statement underscored factors underlying a strong consumer – improved labor market conditions, rising household real income, continued strength in the housing market, and strong consumer sentiment – while acknowledging slower GDP growth, moderating household spending, soft business fixed investment and net exports.
The FOMC took the important step of excluding their prior observation that appeared in the lead-in sentence that “global economic and financial development continued to pose risks,” implying that this risk has abated. Instead, they indicated that they will continue to monitor global conditions and moved this statement to the end of the second paragraph. The outlook for global growth has improved, in the wake of more supportive global central bank policy, increased fiscal stimulus in China, recovering commodity and energy prices and increased inflation.
The statement continued to take a guarded view of inflation; the FOMC eliminated the comment that inflation had “picked up in recent months”; they maintained inflation would “remain low in the near term.” We would cite the recent uptick in core CPI and core PCE as indications of increasing inflation. Apparently, the Fed hasn’t completely bought into this upward trend.
We believe the statement confirms the Fed’s assessment that the futures market still reflects too shallow a trajectory for rate increases. The Fed does not want be forced to implement sharp rate moves that could jolt markets and have a negative impact on still relatively low GDP growth.
We believe this assessment opens the door for a June or July rate increase. We do not think any increase will occur, however, without continued strong employment data, coupled with improved household spending and stabilization in the manufacturing sector.
Foto: Ben
. Preqin reconocido en los 2016 Queen’s Award for Enterprise
Preqinha sido reconocido, en la categoría de comercio exterior, en los galardones oficiales más prestigiosos del Reino Unido dentro del mundo empresarial: los Queen’s Award for Enterprise. La distinción reconoce a Preqin como un negocio excepcional del país, excelente en su campo y con un crecimiento de negocio sostenido en el extranjero. Este año, los premios, que se anuncian anualmente el día del cumpleaños de Su Majestad la Reina, resaltan a 243 empresas, por ser las más exitosas en sus respectivos sectores de actividad.
Los Queen’s Award for Enterprisese otorgan desde 1966 para reconocer los logros de las empresas británicas en una de tres categorías: Comercio exterior, innovación y desarrollo sostenible. Hay participantes de todo el territorio nacional e incluyen a organizaciones de una amplia gama de industrias y sectores.
Mark O’Hare, CEO de Preqin, declara: «Es un gran honor para nosotros figurar en la lista de ganadores de los Queen’s Award este año, especialmente por coincidir con su 90 cumpleaños. Durante los últimos 13 años, Preqin se ha esforzado por ofrecer excelentes productos a sus clientes, convirtiéndose en la principal fuente de datos y conocimiento para la industria global de activos alternativos. Estamos muy orgullosos y agradecidos de que el panel de expertos de los premios reconozca este duro trabajo. Me gustaría añadir mi más profundo agradecimiento a todos nuestros directores, empleados y socios por crear la cultura de la excelencia, la integridad y la dedicación que caracteriza a Preqin, y sin las cuales este logro no sería posible. Por encima de todo, agradecemos a nuestros numerosos clientes en todo el mundo por su sostenido apoyo».
Zurich-headquartered private bank EFG International has agreed to acquire the Luxembourg based private banking activities of UBI Banca International from Unione di Banche Italiane.
UBI Banca International (Luxembourg) has around EUR 3.6 billion in assets under management.
EFG International specified that the transaction is structured as a cash acquisition of UBI Banca International (Luxembourg) S.A. and will have no material impacts on EFG International’s regulatory capital position.
The deal is expected to close during the first half of 2017, and the company will merge into EFG Bank (Luxembourg) S.A..
UBI’s branches in Madrid and Munich are not part of the transaction, as well as its fiduciary and corporate banking activities.
It forms the second move of EFG International in the M&A activity since the start of 2016 as the company is to soon acquire the Lugano based private bank BSI, after an agreement has been signed on 21 February 2016 with BSI’s sole shareholder BTG Pactual.
The EFG International annual general meeting, scheduled on 29 April 2016, shall result in a shareholder approval for the transaction. The deal is to be closed in Q4 2016 and BSI is expected to entirely merge into EFG International at end 2017.
The Bank of Japan’s regular policy meeting ended in Tokyo on Thursday with the policy committee deciding to take no action. In the event, this was a major surprise considering that in recent weeks the consensus expectation had formed solidly behind the view that the central bank would extend its negative interest rate policy which was introduced in January, and also extend the asset purchase programme. According to Nathan Gibbs, Fund Manager at Schroder Investment Management and renowned contrarian specialized on Japanese stocks, «today’s decision seems to imply that the policy committee feels more time is needed to judge the impact of the most recent changes before extending policy further.»
Japanese inflation, which was also released today, showed a marked slowdown in progress towards the central bank’s own inflation target of 2%. Indeed, in its statement the committee implicitly extended the deadline to reach that 2% target into the latter part of 2017. «This admission that the target has become harder, without any additional policy response, led to an immediate decline of around 4% in the stockmarket from the levels seen in the morning session. At the same time there was a sharp strengthening of the yen as currency markets priced-in the effective change in expected interest rate differentials. Some of the current deflationary impact is clearly due to external forces, including the weakness in the price of oil which forms a major part of Japan’s imports. Nevertheless, financial markets had already reflected the change in expectations with the implied inflation rate in index-linked bonds declining this year from around 0.8% to 0.3%. Most surveys of individual consumers in Japan also suggest that the gradual increase in inflationary expectations which has been generated in the last three years has begun to tail-off,» says Gibbs.
In his view, inconsistency introduces uncertainty and although Governor Kuroda has successfully surprised investors with the timing of previous decisions, the direction of his policy has always been absolutely clear. As a result, most investors have been prepared to accept his assertion that he would do “whatever it takes” to raise inflationary expectations. With those inflationary expectations now in decline, «the lack of response today introduces an element of uncertainty which the financial markets may view negatively. Of course, the central bank’s policy objective is to influence the real economy, not the stockmarket, and we must wait longer to see if the current policy is indeed sufficient to maintain the positive underlying trends we have seen so far,» he concludes.
Current Managing Director of Apex’s Maltese operation, Anthony O’Driscoll, has been promoted to Chief Operating Officer for the group. O’Driscoll, a member of the Certified Public Accountants of Ireland, has been with Apex for 10 years during which time he has worked at various Apex offices around the world; including Mauritius, Hong Kong, Ireland and Malta.
O’Driscoll has been instrumental in the rapid growth of the Malta office which he helped launch in 2008. Opening with just 5 employees, Apex Malta has grown exponentially now boasting a team of 70 employees servicing over 124 funds. Paulianne Nwoko current Operations Manager for Apex Malta replaces O’Driscoll as Managing Director for the office and David Butler becomes Chairman. Butler is the founder of Green Day Advisors LLP and Kinetic Partners, bringing over 20 years of industry experience with him to the role at Apex Malta.
Peter Hughes, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer said: “Anthony has been a driving force behind operational innovation for the Apex Malta office. His dedication and commitment to the success and growth of the office are evident in its rapid expansion since establishment 8 years ago. Through implementing progressive projects, such as successfully ensuring Apex Malta becomes the first paperless Apex office, Anthony has demonstrated an aptitude for operational excellence that we want the rest of the group to benefit from. I’m delighted that he can now support me in the role as COO for the group and ensure these progressive developments are implemented quickly and effectively across the rest of the Apex group.”
Anthony O’Driscoll, Chief Operating Officer said: «I am delighted to take on the role of COO for Apex. The group as a whole delivers a really distinctive service to its clients through continually evolving and adding to its product suite and delivering solutions spanning the full value chain of a fund. Understanding the day-to-day requirements of each unique asset manager, alongside the wider impact of market change on their businesses overall, is what fosters longevity in relationships and forms real trust in our ability to service and support our clients. I look forward to further developing our operating strategy on a global basis and implementing some of the procedures already successfully in place in Malta, to benefit both the other local Apex offices and in turn their clients.»
David Butler, commenting on his role as Chairman for Apex Malta, said: “I am thrilled to be joining the Apex Malta team in the position of Chairman. At this exciting time of growth for the company I will look to supporting its local development and helping reinforce Apex’s position as the leading administrator in Malta”.
Foto: José Carlos Cortizo Pérez
. BMO Global AM lanza el Global Equity Market Neutral Sicav Fund
BMO Global Asset Management ha lanzado BMO Global Equity Market Neutral Sicav Fund, dentro de su serie “True Styles», una estrategia que combina los estilos value, momentum, baja volatilidad, tamaño y GARP (crecimiento a un precio razonable, por sus siglas en inglés).
Las inversiones se realizan en el universo mundial de los mercados desarrollados de gran capitalización, como pudiera ser el MSCI World. La elección de este universo, así como los estrictos límites de liquidez que se aplican en la construcción de la cartera garantizan que los inversores tienen acceso a una estrategia alternativa de gran liquidez.
«Los excesos de rendimientos de las carteras se pueden atribuir, con frecuencia, a la exposición a ciertos estilos», declara el gestor del fondo, Erik Rubingh, director de Systematic Equities en BMO Global AM. «True styles se utiliza para centrar nuestras carteras, solamente dirigidas a los estilos deseados, sin interferencia de otros factores”.
Mandy Mannix, director de client management en la gestora para EMEA declara: «Nuestros clientes creen que el BMO Global Equity Market Neutral (SICAV) les proporcionará una base perfecta para la construcción de sus carteras multiactivo, ya que es líquido, altamente diversificada, goza de una demostrada baja correlación con las clases de activos principales y la estrategia ha arrojado unos rendimientos considerablemente mejores que un índice pasivo con menor volatilidad».
El objetivo del fondo, co gestionado por Erik Rubingh y Chris Child, es generar un retorno bruto anual del 4,5% por encima del cash, con un nivel de volatilidad objetivo del 6%. Estará disponible con cobertura de divisa al euro y al dólar, desde su lanzamiento.
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrFoto: Luckycavey, Flickr, Creative Commons. BlackRock y Jyske Invest destacan entre los ganadores de los premios Lipper
Lipper Thomson Reuters ha anunciado los premios a los fondos europeos correspondientes al año 2016, que reconocen la labor de los fondos y a las gestoras que han sido capaces de ofrecer un consistente retorno ajustado al riesgo frente a sus peers. El mérito de los ganadores, dice Lipper, se basa en criterios totalmente objetivos y cuantitativos.
Entre las gestoras destacadas figuran BlackRock, ganadora del premio al mejor grupo de gestión de activos y mejor gestora de renta fija en la categoría de grandes entidades, y Jyske Invest, ganador en la categoría de mejor gestora entre las entidades de menor tamaño. Como mejor grupo de renta fija entre las entidades pequeñas destaca T.Rowe Price. En renta variable, destacan Comgest y Seilern, y en fondos mixtos, Danske Invest y Flossbach von Storch (ver cuadro).
“En Lipper felicitamos a todos los ganadores de 2016 por ser capaces de navegar con éxito las excepcionalmente aguas turbulentas de los mercados en 2015”, comentó Robert Jenkins, responsable global de Análisis en Thomson Reuters Lipper.
“Todos los ganadores merecen ser felicitados por ofrecer una buena rentabilidad ajustada al riesgo de forma consistente frente a sus competidores. Los premios Lipper reconocen una rentabilidad superior por parte de gestoras y grupos”, añade Detlef Glow, responsable de Análisis en EMEA de Thomson Reuters Lipper.
Los datos de Lipper cubren más de 306.000 clases de acciones y más de 128.000 fondos en 63 mercados. Los rating de Lipper Leader están disponibles para los fondos de inversión registrados a la venta en más de 42 países.
As it is becoming increasingly clear that the central banks’ expansive monetary policy is not leading to a sustainable recovery in economic activity, the recent rally on the equity markets is based yet again on fragile foundations. This is the view of Guy Wagner, Chief Investment Officer at Banque de Luxembourg, and his team, published in their monthly analysis, ‘Highlights.’
The global economy is continuing to grow at a modest pace. In the United States, growth is largely due to the increase in personal disposable income spurred by weak oil prices, the favourable job market and a slight increase in wages, whereas corporate investment is diminishing. In Europe, economic growth rates are weak but positive. In Japan, the expected escalation in wages has not materialised, increasing the likelihood of a fresh government stimulus programme despite the already excessive level of public debt. The extension of the quantitative easing programme in Europe and Fed Chairman Janet Yellen’s reticence on future interest-rate hikes in the United States have led investors back into risk assets again.
The US S&P 500 index even closed the first quarter in the black, although the other indices lingered in the red. “As it is becoming increasingly clear that the central banks’ expansive monetary policy is not leading to a sustainable recovery in economic activity, the recent rally on the equity markets is based yet again on fragile foundations,” says Guy Wagner, Chief Investment Officer at Banque de Luxembourg and managing director of the asset management company BLI – Banque de Luxembourg Investments.
Further quantitative easing measures in Europe Given the weakness of inflation in Europe, the President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, announced further quantitative easing measures in March: the ECB’s headline rate is being cut from 0.05% to 0%, the volume of its debt purchases has been ratcheted up from 60 to 80 billion euros per month, and the programme has been extended to include buying up investment-grade corporate bonds. The ECB also cut its deposit rate and launched a new bank-lending programme to enable banks to refinance on very favourable terms provided they then lend it on to revive economic activity.
Despite their weak yields, bond markets remain attractive Bond yields saw little change in March. Over the month, the 10-year government bond yield inched up in Germany and in the United States, but dipped in Italy and in Spain. “In Europe, the main attraction of the bond markets lies in the prospect of interest rates going, because the ECB’s negative interest policy could be expanded during 2016,” believes the Luxembourgish economist. “In the United States, the higher yields on long bond issues give them some residual potential for appreciation without having to factor in negative yields to maturity.”
No strengthening of the euro in the near future Against the dollar, the euro appreciated in March. Janet Yellen’s dovish words on future interest rate rises in the United States weighed on the dollar and nudged the euro/dollar exchange rate to the upper end of the last 12 months’ fluctuation bracket. “The expansion of the ECB’s quantitative easing programme does nothing to suggest a strengthening of the euro in the near future,” concludes Guy Wagner.
European Smart Beta ETF market flows continued to be strong in Q1 2016. Net New Assets (NNA) year to date (until 31/03/2016) amounted to EUR 2 billion. Total Assets under Management are up 4% vs. the end of 2015, reaching EUR 16.7 billion. Smart Beta assets have doubled since the end of 2014. Year to date, ETF flows were sustained especially in the Risk based & Factor allocation categories as investors looked for defensive strategies and alternative sources of return in an uncertain environment.
Smart Beta definition: Smart Beta indices are rules-based investment strategies that do not rely on market capitalization. To classify all the products that are included in this category we have used 3 sub segments. First, risk based strategies based on volatility, and other quantitative methods. Secondly, fundamental strategies based on the economic footprint of a firm – through accounting ratios- or of a state – through macroeconomic measures. Then factor strategies including homogeneous ranges of single factor products, and multifactor products designed for the purpose of factor allocation.
Q1 2016 flows were positive for Smart Beta ETFs at EUR 2 billion, with a one-year record high at EUR 907 million in February 2016, and a strong month of March at EUR 807 million. The quarterly figure is equal to the amount gathered in Q1 2015, in a context where equity ETFs globally registered significant outflows. Year to date, risk based ETFs registered the highest inflows with a record high on Minimum volatility ETFs at EUR 1.2 billion.
Due to high uncertainties on the economic and monetary environment worldwide,low volatility ETFs continued to attract significant interest especially on US and global indices. In the factor allocation space, multifactor ETFs continued to gather inflows, EUR 357 million year to date, mainly on European indices as investors are looking for diversification in a context of poor equity market performance. In the fundamental space, quality income ETFs benefited from the low yield environment due to their attractive yield/risk profile.
Foto: Yoshihide Nomura
. Broker dealers, banca privada y trusts controlan el 72% del mercado de los grandes patrimonios
Los broker dealers y bancos controlan casi tres cuartas partes de todos los activos de los high net worth en Estados Unidos, según el informe «Los mercados high net worth y ultra high net worth 2015: comprender y dirigirse a los family offices», publicado por Cerulli Associates.
«A finales de 2014, los wealth managers controlaban aproximadamente 8 billones de dólares en activos de clientes HNW y UHNW,» afirma Donnie Ethier, director asociado de Cerulli. «Los tradicionales líderes del mercado – broker dealers, banca privada y compañías fiduciarias (trusts) – mantienen su hegemonía con una cuota conjunta del 72% del mercado«.
Los broker dealers y los bancos deben superar su dependencia de contratar a profesionales de la competencia (de un broker dealer a otro broker dealer, por ejemplo) o corren el riesgo de experimentar un crecimiento moderado. Más aún, los herederos de los actuales clientes pueden ser su «as en la manga», ya que es probable que impulsen el crecimiento de los operadores independientes y directos.
Las sociedades fiduciarias certificadas por el estado y los multi family offices han experimentado un crecimiento significativo. Se trata de operadores exclusivos e independientes, especializadas en la planificación sofisticada de patrimonios. Estas prácticas se establecen, con frecuencia, alrededor de los elementos más emocionales del patrimonio de la familia, incluida la gobernanza y la planificación sucesoria.
Los IRAs tradicionales se han incluido también en el segmento HNW de Cerulli porque, de forma parecida a varios broker dealers o consejos de inversión, aunque posiblemente no podrían ser calificados de multi family office no dejan de tener un cierto impacto sobre las familias del grupo HNW.
«Los broker dealers, banca privada y las sociedades fiduciarias siguen siendo los tres mayores operadores del segmento HNW», explica Ethier. «A pesar de que los activos gestionados por los broker dealers han decrecido en los últimos años, no necesariamente se debe a una pérdida de recursos por su parte, sino que puede deberse a un cambio en la metodología de Cerulli, que incluye la reasignación de los activos de un broker dealer a un operador afiliado, como pueda haber sido la separación de la cuota de mercado de US Trust de la de Merrill Lynch «.
