Non-EU Managers Ditch European Investors in Face of AIFMD Grief

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Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive (AIFMD) headaches are causing some non-EU fund managers to forgo European investors, according to the latest issue of The Cerulli Edge-Europe Edition.

Cerulli Associates, the global analytics firm, says the hurdles and uncertainty linked to the financial directive are proving too troublesome for some managers. The chief operating officer of one hedge fund told Cerulli that U.S. and Asian managers are ignoring Europe, concentrating greater marketing efforts instead on domestic investors.

«At the crux of the debate is the question of whether the financial rewards outweigh the compliance costs,» says Barbara Wall, Europe research director at Cerulli, noting that the cost of becoming AIFMD compliant is estimated at between US$300,000 (€278,000) and US$1 million.

The directive subjects fully compliant AIFMs to a number of obligations, most notably the appointment of a depositary bank, restrictions around remuneration and additional risk oversight requirements. In return, full-scope AIFMs can in theory distribute funds to institutional investors across the EU without impediment.

The situation for EU managers of non-EU funds and non-EU managers of non-EU funds is, however, more complicated. While Guernsey, Jersey and Switzerland have been cleared by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) to use the AIFMD passport, the U.S., Hong Kong and Singapore have been told that more analysis is needed before a ruling can be made. «The delay is cause for concern. A speedy decision is needed–however, we are not hopeful of one,» says Wall, noting that the huge regulatory divergences between the EU and the U.S., particularly around the definition of an accredited investor, is an obstacle to equivalence that will not be easily resolved.

David Walker, director of European institutional research at Cerulli, adds it is a cause for concern if Europe’s growing web of regulation affecting alternatives managers means U.S. and Asian managers simply ignore European investors. «European allocators could effectively be denied some very talented managers, and returns they badly need in Europe’s low-interest rate, low-returns environment,» says Walker.

Managers without passporting rights can use the National Private Placement Regimes (NPPR). However, a lack of uniformity across the EU with regard to interpretation of NPPR is creating confusion, points out Cerulli. It notes that differences between countries on AIFMD regulatory reporting rules have resulted in some non-EU managers marketing into just a handful of jurisdictions, while others are moving onshore or launching UCITS. Also, there is no certainty as to how long NPPR will exist.

«Alternatives managers depending on reverse solicitation rely on being ‘found’ and then pursued by prospective clients–a fairly tall order–whereas regulation-compliant rival managers will be able actively to promote the benefits of their strategies, which does seem a rather easier path to sales,» says Walker.

Los accionistas aprueban la fusión del proveedor de servicios Towers Watson con la aseguradora Willis

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Shareholders Approve Towers Watson-Willis Merger
Foto: NicolaCorboy, Flickr, Creative Commons. Los accionistas aprueban la fusión del proveedor de servicios Towers Watson con la aseguradora Willis

Se había anunciado en junio pero finalmente ha sido este mes cuando la fusión entre el gigante del seguro Willis Group Holdings y la firma proveedora de servicios de inversión y consultoría Towers Watson dio un paso decisivo. Los accionistas de Towers Watson & Co aprobaron la operación con sus votos, según informaron ambas compañías en una comunicación conjunta.

Durante la primera votación que tuvo lugar en noviembre, los mayores accionistas de Towers Watson, incluyendo BlackRock, rechazaron apoyar la fusión y forzaron para aplazar una próxima votación hasta la del pasado viernes.

El cambio de condiciones fue decisivo para que esta vez el voto fuera positivo: si bien en el acuerdo anterior se hablaba de que los accionistas de la consultora recibirían un dividendo en liquidez de 4,87 dólares por acción, esa cifra aumentó hasta 10 dólares por acción. Tras ese cambió llegó el acuerdo y los accionistas de Towers Watson dieron el sí definitivo, según informa Reuters.

“Estamos encantados de anunciar el resultado del voto y agradecer a todos nuestros accionistas su apoyo”, comentó John Haley, consejero delejado de Towers Watson.

El objetivo de la fusión es combinar Willis, el tercer mayor broker asegurador del mundo, con Towers Watson paa añadir negocio de operaciones de consultoría y ayudar a avanzar para superar a los grandes rivales.

El CEO de Towers Watson John Haley liderará la nueva firma fruto de la fusión y James McCann, de Willis, será su presidente.

Market Volatility Causes an Important Reduction in Net Inflows in Long-Term UCITS and AIF in Q3 2015

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The European Fund and Asset Management Association (EFAMA) has published its latest quarterly statistical release which describes the trends in the European investment fund industry during the third quarter of 2015. Bernard Delbecque, Director of Economics and Research at EFAMA, commented: “Volatile markets in August and September triggered an important reduction in net inflows in long-term UCITS and AIF in the third quarter of 2015.”  

UCITS net sales declined to EUR 55 billion, down from EUR 114 billion in Q2.Long-term UCITS, i.e. UCITS excluding money market funds, also posted a steep decline in net sales during the quarter to stand at EUR 33 billion at the end of Q3, down from EUR 144 billion in Q2. 

Demand for equity funds decreased from EUR 22 billion in Q2 to EUR 13 billion in Q3.  Bond funds registered a turnaround in net sales to post net outflows of EUR 19 billion, against net inflows of EUR 32 billion in Q2. Net sales of multi-asset funds net sales decreased from EUR 72 million in Q2, to EUR 34 billion in Q3.

Cumulative UCITS net sales totalled EUR 452 billion during the first three quarters of 2015, up from EUR 404 billion registered in the first three quarters of 2014. 

Cumulative net sales of long-term UCITS also increased during the first three quarters of this year to EUR 414 billion, up from the EUR 399 billion registered in the first three quarters of last year.

Money market funds recorded a turnaround in net sales to post net inflows of EUR 21 billion in Q3, against net outflows of EUR 30 billion registered in Q2. 

AIF net sales amounted to EUR 33 billion, down from EUR 48 billion in Q2. The reduction in AIF net sales can be primarily attributed to a decrease in demand for AIF multi-asset funds, from EUR 32 billion in Q2 to EUR 16 billion in Q3. 

AIF bond fund net sales saw increased outflows of EUR 4.5 billion, compared to outflows of EUR 2 billion in Q2.  Net sales of AIF equity funds decreased from EUR 3.6 billion in Q2 to EUR 3.2 billion in Q3. 

European investment fund net assets decreased 4.1% during the third quarter of 2015 to stand at EUR 12,114 billion at end Q3 2015.  Net assets of UCITS decreased by 4.7 percent to stand at EUR 7,784 billion at end Q3, while total net assets of AIFs decreased by 3.0 percent to stand at EUR 4,330 billion at quarter end.

A Spectre is Haunting the World, the Spectre of Deflation

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Open up a financial newspaper and you will see the word “Deflationagain and again in articles on the general economic situation, usually in combination with the words “fear”, “concerns” or “risk”. This negative association is reinforced by the fact that Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, often speaks of a deflation risk” which must be combatted.

Given the big impact that central banks have on financial markets through their key rates and other monetary policy measures, it is important for investors to understand what influences these institutions and what they have to do with deflation and deflation risk.

To address this topic, I will present a short series of blog posts on deflation from an investor’s point of view.

The first point to understand is what exactly is meant by “deflation”, how we experience it in everyday life, what causes it, and why it occurs so seldom on a macroeconomic level. In the following posts I will address related themes, such as “deflationary spiral”, “excessive debt and deflation“, and, above all, what this means for an investor.

Deflation is defined in economics as an across-the-board, significant and sustained decline in prices of goods and services.

The main cause of falling prices is greater efficiency, i.e., the ability to offer a better product or service and/or the ability to offer it at a lower price. This phenomenon can be seen in computers and consumer electronics. An iPhone today costs about one third what an Apple Macintosh computer cost in 1984 (about USD 2500) and is capable of doing so much more.

But there are other, less well-known examples of deflation caused by enhanced efficiency. According to the Cologne Institute for Economic Research, in Germany prices of the main staple foods (butter, sugar, milk, bread, etc.) have risen in nominal terms since 1960 and even since 1991. On the other hand, in 1960 an “average” worker had to put in 51 minutes to buy 10 eggs; in 1991, nine minutes, and in 2009, only eight minutes. More generally, in 2009 a German worker had to work only one third as long in order to buy the same basket of goods as in 1960.

A further important cause of deflation – surplus supply and flat demand – is currently being illustrated in oil prices. Keep in mind, however, that demand for oil is not fully price-elastic. That means, for example, that if oil prices rise there will be only a slight decrease in driving, and if oil prices fall there will be only a slight increase in driving. Moreover, it is easy to expand or shrink supply in the very near term. The “oil tap” can be opened up or closed relatively easily.

For various political and economic reasons, oil producers are not currently on the same page and are trying to sell as much oil as possible. This has led to a global glut in oil, and the price of all types of oil has fallen by more than 50% in the last 18 months.

But why has this long- and short-term deflationary trend very seldom or never led to macroeconomic deflation? There are two reasons.

On the one hand, lower prices put more money in consumers’ hands, which they use to purchase more goods, the same goods in greater quantities, or goods of higher value. This alters the basket of goods on which basis the consumer price index is calculated. This change in consumer behaviour offsets the deflationary impact.

On the other hand deflation naturally depends on money supply and growth in money supply. And, although money is created from lending by commercial banks, it is ultimately the central banks that determine growth in money supply. In the past politics led to too much money creation which triggered (moderate) inflation.

Even so, deflation has occurred in the past. In my next blog post I will describe when and how it has done so.

Alejandro Moreno Appointed New Head of Distribution for Northstar

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Northstar, a firm dedicated to provide financial solutions to meet the needs of non-US clients, announced the appointment of Alejandro Moreno in the role of Head of Distribution. Alejandro Moreno brings over 19 years of experience in global financial organizations. Alejandro has joined Northstar from Sun Life Financial International, where he was most recently Head of Global Relationships. At Sun Life, Alejandro managed the global key account and sales teams and the firm experienced significant growth across all territories under his stewardship. Prior to joining Sun Life in 2008, Alejandro spent 12 years at Putnam Investments where he held a variety of positions within the firms’ offshore business. Alejandro completed his undergraduate program at CENP in Madrid and is bilingual in English and Spanish.

 Northstar’s CEO, Michael Staveley, commented: “We are delighted that Alejandro has joined us in the newly created role of head of distribution and we look forward to him playing a central role in the firms continued growth. Alejandro will be working closely with the other members of the executive team and directors as we seek to expand the firm’s global distribution network and enhance our product range. The Northstar platform has been in operation for 17 years and this key hire is a further demonstration of our longstanding commitment to the international business.”

Northstar was first established in 1998 as Nationwide Financial Services (Bermuda) Limited and renamed Northstar in 2005, the firm offers a range of attractive fixed-rate and variable investment plans to a global client base. The firm’s fixed-rate products offer competitive guaranteed interest rates coupled with the option of added principal protection. Northstar’s variable products offer investors access to a broad selection of funds from a range of leading asset managers, with unlimited free transfers between underlying investment options. Working with an extensive range of distribution partners such as banks and other financial institutions, Northstar has clients in over 100 countries.

Despite Outflows, Investor Confidence in European Funds is Coming Back

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According to the latest Investment Funds Industry Fact Sheet from the European Fund and Asset Management Association (EFAMA), which provides net sales of UCITS and non-UCITS, during September 2015, total net assets of the European investment fund industry decreased by 2.3% percent to stand at 12,109 billion euros.
 
With information from 27 associations representing more than 99 percent of total UCITS and AIF assets, the main developments that month can be summarized as follows:

  • UCITS net sales decreased to 1 billion euros, down from net inflows of 9 billion euros in August. The decrease can be attributed to net outflows from money market funds.
  • Long-term UCITS (UCITS excluding money market funds) experienced a rebound in net sales of 12 billion euros, compared to net outflows of EUR 3 billion in August. 
  • Equity funds enjoyed a turnaround with net sales of EUR 3 billion, up from net outflows of EUR 3 billion in August.
  • Net outflows from bond funds amounted to EUR 1 billion, compared to net outflows of EUR 12 billion in August.
  • Net sales of multi-asset funds remained steady with inflows of EUR 8 billion in both August and September.
  • UCITS money market funds recorded net outflows of EUR 11 billion, compared to net inflows of EUR 12 billion in August.  This reflected usual end-of-quarter redemptions.
  • Total AIF net sales saw net outflows of EUR 6 billion, down from inflows of EUR 6 billion in August.

Net assets of UCITS stood at EUR 7,815 billion at end September 2015, representing a decrease of 2.2% during the month, while net assets of AIF decreased by 2.5% to stand at EUR 4,294 billion at month end. 
 
Bernard Delbecque
, Director for Economics and Research at EFAMA commented: “The rebound in net sales of long-term UCITS, even though modest, suggests that investor confidence began to strengthen again in September, after a few weeks of turbulence in the markets.”
 

Two-Thirds of Marketing Managers Plan to Add Staff to Support Digital Transformation

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New research from Cerulli Associates finds that two-thirds of marketing managers plan to add to their staff to support their digital transformation needs, focusing on content, data analytics, and technology-skilled individuals.

 «When marketing managers are asked which trends are impacting their job, most respond with answers that are directly associated with digital transformation,» states Pamela DeBolt, associate director at Cerulli. «Acquiring more technologically-oriented personnel allows managers to enhance their ability to deliver content through budding digital channels, such as blogs, videos, or social media. Another opportunity for hiring comes in the form of more analytically-oriented candidates. More and more, marketing groups are performing their own segmentations, engaging in predictive analytics, and attempting to measure marketing return on investment (ROI).»

In its new report, Cerulli explores digital marketing and how firms are using these digital technologies to promote their brand, build preference, and increase sales through various sales marketing techniques.

«Digital is a positive game-changer for marketing groups, contributing to more targeted segmentation, expanded delivery mechanisms, and more opportunities to build firms’ brand,» DeBolt explains. «Firms have been able to use innovations in technology to improve the scale and efficiency of digital marketing, and to get a better handle on the idea and implementation of big data for business intelligence/predictive analytics. To take advantages of these opportunities for growth, marketers must recognize the importance of adding skilled employees to better shape their organization to navigate the challenges they will face.»

«The recent resurgence of product lines-in terms of both size and complexity-has led to a new demand for marketing professionals,» DeBolt continues. «The acceptance and embracing of technology into the marketing process has added a new flavor to marketing organizations. More quantitatively-focused candidates have become highly desirable, as marketing heads look to fill positions surrounding analytics and measuring ROI.»

¿Será que la volatilidad impulsa la gestión activa?

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Has Volatility Fueled Active Management?
Foto de Simon Cunningham. ¿Será que la volatilidad impulsa la gestión activa?

Durante los últimos seis años, las acciones estadounidenses experimentaron un repunte casi ininterrumpido. Un entorno de política monetaria inusualmente expansiva junto con un crecimiento económico y de las ganancias impulsaron el mercado de valores en los EE.UU., sin embargo, las cosas están empezando a cambiar.

La Reserva Federal (Fed) ha señalado su intención de normalizar la política monetaria, lo que podría empezar a suceder tan pronto como este mes. Al mismo tiempo, el crecimiento de los ingresos, fuera del sector energético, es modesto y las valuaciones son caras. Por tanto, es probable que los inversores de cara al futuro no sólo tendrán que ajustarse a rendimientos más modestos de acciones de Estados Unidos, sino también pueden tener que prepararse para una mayor volatilidad en momentos en que los mercados de renta fija en Estados Unidos continuarán otorgando bajos niveles de rentabilidad.

Con el fin de mantener el mismo nivel de rentabilidad, los inversores tendrán que cambiar sus estrategias. Una forma de hacerlo en el mercado de renta variable sería buscar beta en mercados más baratos (sectores, factores, geografías) con buenos fundamentales, así como estrategias a largo plazo. Por ejemplo, la exposición en Europa o Japón, otros países desarrollados donde mejora de la actividad económica, continúan con una política monetaria acomodaticia, las monedas son más baratas y hay un fuerte crecimiento de los beneficios.

Otra estrategia sería combinar gestión activa y pasiva. Si bien la gestión pasiva ha superado a la gestión de activa en los últimos años, eso se hizo en un momento en el que el mercado de valores se movía al alza y en un entorno de baja volatilidad, donde la generación de alfa resulta ser más difícil. Hoy en día, los inversores pueden potencialmente beneficiarse más de la selección de riesgos y activos , ya sea a través de fondos cotizados de gestión activa (ETFs), gestores de multiactivos, estrategias long/short o gestores de renta variable activos tradicionales. Sin embargo se debe tener en cuenta dos cuestiones esenciales de la gestión activa:

  • No está garantizado, el encontrar a un gestor de inversiones de primer nivel que se beneficiarán de este cambio en el clima de inversión
  • La generación de alfa es básicamente un juego de suma cero en el tiempo. En conjunto, los inversores compiten para generar alfa, creando ganadores y perdedores.

Aunque el conjunto de datos es ciertamente pequeño, los datos históricos muestran que en las empresas estadounidenses de gran capitalización, los períodos en los que la generación de alfa mejora coinciden con períodos de tensión en los mercados financieros. Así, mientras que la generación de alfa puede pensarse como una oportunidad para generar un mayor retorno, puede igualmente ser considerada como una de menor riesgo durante momentos de gran estrés financiero y económico. Por lo tanto, podría ser más seguro, de cara al futuro, combinar estrategias de alfa y beta. 

En lo que respecta a la renta fija, (donde dado el bajo nivel de las tasas de interés no se necesita un gran retroceso en las tasas de interés para borrar los ingresos por cupón de un año), con el fin de aumentar los rendimientos y generar ingresos suficientes, los inversionistas pueden sentirse obligados a emigrar a créditos más riesgosos, extender el vencimiento / duración o exponerse a valores menos líquidos. Sin embargo, al igual que con las acciones, hay una opción además de la beta pura. En lugar de tomar más riesgos, los inversores podrían considerar cómo incluir herramientas de generación de alfa en su cartera de renta fija. Una forma de hacerlo sería empleando soluciones globales multiactivos como una manera de limitar la volatilidad al mismo tiempo que se persiguen objetivos como ingresos y rentabilidad total. Herramientas tales como los fondos de bonos sin restricciones, el crédito global long /short o ETFs de crédito puede ser una buena manera de diversificar las fuentes de ingresos de renta fija.

Con el mundo regresando a la ‘normalización’ viene la preocupación de una mayor volatilidad. Sin embargo, también se presenta una oportunidad para la generación de alfa que ha evadido un poco los mercados en los últimos años. Los inversores pueden tomar ventaja de esto al escoger al gestor activo correcto, así como, a través de carteras flexibles de multiactivos y al mismo tiempo utilizando estrategias beta para aumentar los rendimientos a través de estrategias por sector, geografía y cambios en la curva.

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Este material es para fines educativos únicamente y no constituye asesoría de inversión, ni oferta ni invitación para comprar o vender valores en jurisdicción alguna (o a persona) donde dicha oferta, invitación, compra o venta sea ilegal conforme a las leyes de valores de dicha jurisdicción. Si algunos valores o fondos están referenciados o inferidos en este material, dichos valores o fondos puede ser no registrados ante los reguladores del mercado de valores de cualquier país en Latinoamérica y Ibérico, y por tanto, dichos valores no puedan ser objeto de oferta pública dentro del territorio de dichos países. La veracidad de la información contenida en este material no ha sido confirmada por el regulador del mercado de valores de ningún país dentro de Latinoamérica y Iberia.

The European Fund Universe Lost 193 Products On Q315

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According to Thomson Reuters Lipper‘s latest Launches, Mergers, and Liquidations report, as of the end of the third quarter 2015 there were 31,982 mutual funds registered for sale in Europe. Luxembourg, hosting 9,136 funds, continued to dominate the fund market in Europe, followed by France, where 4,631 funds were domiciled.

Amongst European Funds, equity ones ontinue to dominate the scene with 37% of the funds available for sale, followed by mixed-asset funds at 27%. Bond funds stood at 21%, while money market funds represented 4% of the market. The remaining 11% of “other” funds were real estate funds, commodity funds, guaranteed funds, and funds of hedge funds.

As Detlef Glow, Lipper’s Head of EMEA Research, and Christoph Karg, Content Specialist Germany & Austria, state, during Q3, 646 funds (322 liquidations and 324 mergers) being withdrawn from the market and only 453 new products being launched, the European fund universe shrank by 193 products. The specialists note that «Since the European
fund industry is enjoying high net inflows for 2015, it is surprising the industry is still cautious with regard to fund launches.» Adding that «there is still a lot of pressure on asset managers with regard to profitability, which is also driving the cleanup of the product ranges,» and so «the consolidation of the European fund industry might continue over the foreseeable future.»

You can read the full report in the following link.
 

U.S. Institutional Assets Grew 6% in 2014

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The latest research from global analytics firm Cerulli Associates found that assets overseen by different types of institutional investors in the U.S. rose about 6% in 2014, compared to 9.8% in the previous year.

«Institutional assets experienced more modest growth than the strong equity markets of last year,» said Chris Mason, research analyst at Cerulli. «This modest overall growth masked substantial growth among several institutional channels, representing continued addressable market opportunities for institutional asset managers.»

One area of significant growth was in the growing demand by institutional investors for more customized investment solutions. «Custom solutions assets have more than doubled since 2010 from about $500 billion to more than $1 trillion last year,» stated Mason. «Cerulli’s projections show increasing demand for custom solutions in the next five years from corporate pension plans, public plans, and non-profits.

Cerulli’s research also finds that asset managers and investment consultants are moving rapidly to address the demand for sustainable investments by U.S. institutional investors. «Asset managers and investment consultants that focus on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors will benefit from increased demand as different stakeholders place more pressure on investment committees to consider such factors in their investment decision-making process,» explained Mason.

According to a proprietary survey done in partnership with The Forum for Sustainable and Responsible Investment (US SIF), 64% of responding asset managers indicated that they believe it will be «very important» for managers to offer ESG capabilities in the next 2 to 3 years in order to compete in the marketplace.