U.S. Election – An Ugly Debate Keeps Trump Alive

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For PIMCO, the events over the weekend have only underscored the unconventional – and some would argue unstable – nature of this year’s presidential election cycle. Reeling from the release of a video in which he made lewd comments about women, a vital demographic constituting 53% of the electorate, Trump’s objective going into Sunday night’s debate was to stop the bleeding and tame the calls for him to leave the race.

According to Libby Cantrill, PIMCO’s head of public policy, in this regard, Trump succeeded. «Although he floundered in the first 20 minutes, he regained his footing later on by attacking Clinton constantly on those issues where she is most vulnerable, including her emails and paid speeches to Wall Street. Clinton, for her part, came off as prepared and policy-oriented, but left some unsatisfied with a number of her answers and failed to land any serious blows.»

«While Trump may now be off life support, his debate performance is unlikely to achieve what it needed to do: Broaden his appeal and convince the higher-than-usual proportion of undecided voters this election to support him. There was plenty of red meat for his base, including many assertions that would likely be disqualifying in any other election cycle, including a call for Clinton’s imprisonment. But those personal attacks are unlikely to draw-in the needed swing voters, especially undecided women.» She states.

What should investors look out for in the remaining days until the election?

The third and final debate will be held next Wednesday, October 19th and will be another important inflection point in the race. In the meantime, Cantrill recommends paying attention to how the Trump videotape plays out over the coming days, and specifically whether it leads to any further disavowals from establishment Republicans. Whether vice presidential candidate Mike Pence remains on the ticket will also be critical. «While still a low probability, Pence leaving the ticket could be yet another destabilizing event in what has already been a volatile election cycle.»

Lastly, she recommends watching the polling in the ten key swing states that will likely dictate the outcome in November, with a specific focus on Florida and Ohio. «These are two must-win states for Donald Trump, and two in which he is now trailing Clinton. If Trump can claw back and overtake her lead in those states, he may have a fighting chance to win the White House. But without them, it is difficult to imagine a scenario in which he secures the needed 270 electoral votes required for victory in November.» She concluded.

Fiera Capital to Acquire Charlemagne Capital

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Canadian asset manager Fiera Capital has announced an agreement has been reached for a cash transaction including the full acquisition of emerging markets boutique Charlemagne Capital and the payment of a special dividend by Charlemagne Capital.

If completed, the deal will provide Fiera Capital with an entry into the emerging and frontier markets asset class and create a European platform to boost the growth and distribution of Fiera Capital’s existing investment funds.

“Under the terms of the Transaction, Charlemagne Capital shareholders will be entitled to receive 14 pence in cash in aggregate for each Charlemagne Capital share. The 14 pence is composed of 11 pence in cash for each Charlemagne Capital share and a special dividend of 3 pence per Charlemagne Capital share conditional on the Scheme becoming effective,” Fiera Capital said.

The 11 pence per share to be paid by Fiera Capital together with the special dividend of 3 pence per share, values the transaction at approximately £40.7m, the firm specified.

“The acquisition of Charlemagne Capital would be an important step in advancing our global presence by teaming up with a high quality emerging and frontier markets specialist, with an excellent track record of performance, a proven team of investment professionals and a strong culturally aligned management team,” said Jean-Guy Desjardins, chairman and CEO of Fiera Capital.

“The addition of emerging and frontier markets strategies to our strong global offering in equities would benefit our clients who are consistently looking for diversification opportunities,” he added.

Jayne Sutcliffe, Chief Executive Officer of Charlemagne Capital, commented : “Fiera Capital is a performance driven, client-focused firm with a strong emphasis on teamwork. As such, Fiera Capital has committed to preserve and support the culture and infrastructure of Charlemagne Capital. Our board believes that this transaction is an excellent solution for our broad range of institutional and wealth management investors, who will benefit from being part of Fiera Capital with its complementary culture, financial strength and North American distribution network. In our view, as the fund management industry evolves, investors will increasingly take comfort from entrusting assets with a firm which has a strong balance sheet, diversified product offering and global distribution.”

Charlemagne Capital was founded in 2000 and has currently assets under management in excess of $2bn (€1.78bn).

Fiera Capital has C$109bn (€74bn) of assets under management.

Spectacular Crowdfunding Fails And Their Impact On Entrepreneurship

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Before I proceed, let me make it absolutely clear that I have nothing against crowdfunding. I believe the basic principle behind crowdfunding is sound, and, in a perfect world, it would boost innovation and provide talented, creative people with an opportunity to turn their dreams into reality.

Unfortunately, we live in the real world, and therefore it’s time for a reality check:

   Reality /rɪˈalɪti/
    noun

  1.         The state of things as they actually exist.
  2.         The place where bad crowdfunded ideas come to die.

While most entrepreneurs may feel this mess does not concern them because they don’t dabble in crowdfunding, it could have a negative impact on countless people who are not directly exposed to it:

  1.     We are allowing snake oil peddlers to wreck the reputation of crowdfunding and the startup scene.
  2.     Reputational risks extend to parties with no direct involvement in crowdfunding.
  3.     By failing to clean up the crowdfunding scene, we are indirectly depriving legitimate ideas of access to funding and support.
  4.     When crowdfunded projects crash and burn, the crowd can quickly turn into a mob.

But Wait, Crowdfunding Gave Us Great Tech Products!

Indeed, but I am not here to talk about the good stuff, and here is why: For every Oculus Rift, there are literally hundreds of utterly asinine ideas vying for crowd-cash.

Unfortunately, people tend to focus on positive examples and overlook everything else. The sad truth is that Oculus Rift is a bad example of crowdfunding, because it’s essentially an exception to the rule. The majority of crowdfunding drives don’t succeed.

How did a sound, altruistic concept of democratizing entrepreneurship become synonymous with failure? I could list a few factors:

  •     Unprofessional media coverage
  •     Social network hype
  •     Lack of responsibility and accountability
  •     Lack of regulation and oversight

The press should be doing a better job. Major news organizations consistently fail to recognize impossible ideas, indicating they are incapable of professional, critical news coverage. Many are megaphones for anyone who walks through the door with clickbait.

The press problem is made exponentially worse by social networks, which allow ideas to spread like wildfire. People think outlandish ideas are legitimate because they are covered by huge news outlets, so they share them, assuming the media fact-checked everything.

Once it becomes obvious that a certain crowdfunding initiative is not going to succeed, crowdfunding platforms are supposed to pull the plug. Sadly, they are often slow to react.

Crowdfunding platforms should properly screen campaigns. The industry needs a more effective regulatory framework and oversight.

Realistic Expectations: Are You As Good As Oculus Rift?

Are you familiar with the “Why aren’t we funding this?” meme? Sometimes the meme depicts awesome ideas, sometimes it shows ideas that are “out there” but entertaining nonetheless. The meme could be applied to many crowdfunding campaigns with a twist:

    ”Why are we funding this?”

This is what I love about crowdfunding. Say you enjoyed some classic games on your NES or Commodore in the eighties. Fast forward three decades and some of these games have a cult following, but the market is too small to get publishers interested. Why not use crowdfunding to connect fans around the globe and launch a campaign to port classic games to new platforms?

You can probably see where I’m going with this: Crowdfunding is a great way of tapping a broad community in all corners of the world, allowing niche products and services to get funded. It’s all about expanding niche markets, increasing the viability of projects with limited mainstream appeal.

When you see a crowdfunding campaign promising to disrupt a mainstream market, that should be a red flag.

Why? Because you don’t need crowdfunding if you have a truly awesome idea and business plan with a lot of mainstream market appeal. You simply need to reach out to a few potential investors and watch the money roll in.

I decided against using failed software-related projects to illustrate my point:

  •     Most people are not familiar with the inner workings of software development, and can’t be blamed for not understanding the process.
  •     My examples should illustrate hype, and they’re entertaining.

That’s why I’m focusing on two ridiculous campaigns: the Triton artificial gill and the Fontus self-filling water bottle.

Triton Artificial Gill: How Not To Do Crowdfunding

The Triton artificial gill is essentially a fantasy straight out of Bond movies. It’s supposed to allow humans to “breathe” underwater by harvesting oxygen from water. It supposedly accomplishes this using insanely efficient filters with “fine threads and holes, smaller than water molecules” and is powered by a “micro battery” that’s 30 times more powerful than standard batteries, and charges 1,000 times faster.

Sci-Tech Red Flag: Hang on. If you have such battery technology, what the hell do you need crowdfunding for?! Samsung, Apple, Sony, Tesla, Toyota and just about everyone else would be lining up to buy it, turning you into a multibillionaire overnight.

Let’s sum up the claims:

  •     The necessary battery technology does not exist.
  •     The described “filter” is physically impossible to construct.
  •     The device would need to “filter” huge amounts of water to extract enough oxygen.

Given all the outlandish claims, you’d expect this sort of idea to be exposed for what it is within days. Unfortunately, it was treated as a legitimate project by many media organizations. It spread to social media and eventually raised nearly $900,000 on Indiegogo in a matter of weeks.

Luckily, they had to refund their backers.

Fontus Self-Filling Water Bottle: Fail In The Making

This idea doesn’t sound as bogus as the Triton, because it’s technically possible. Unfortunately, this is a very inefficient way of generating water. A lot of energy is needed to create the necessary temperature differential and cycle enough air to fill up a bottle of water. If you have a dehumidifier or AC unit in your home, you know something about this. Given the amount of energy needed to extract a sufficient amount of water from air, and the size of the Fontus, it might produce enough water to keep a hamster alive, but not a human.

While this idea isn’t as obviously impossible as the Triton, I find it even worse, because it’s still alive and the Indiegogo campaign has already raised about $350,000. What I find even more disturbing is the fact that the campaign was covered by big and reputable news organizations, including Time, Huff Post, The Verge, Mashable, Engadget and so on. You know, the people who should be informing us.

Just because something is technically possible, that doesn’t mean it’s practical and marketable!

I have a strange feeling the people of California, Mexico, Israel, Saudi Arabia and every other hot, arid corner of the globe are not idiots, which is why they don’t get their water out of thin air. They employ other technologies to solve the problem.

Mainstream Appeal Red Flag: If someone actually developed a technology that could extract water from air with such incredible efficiency, why on Earth would they need crowdfunding? I can’t even think of a commodity with more mainstream appeal than water. Governments around the globe would be keen to invest tens of billions in their solution, bringing abundant distilled water to billions of people with limited access to safe drinking water.

Successful Failures: Cautionary Tales For Tech Entrepreneurs

NASA referred to the ill-fated Apollo 13 mission as a “successful failure” because it never executed a lunar landing, but managed to overcome near-catastrophic technical challenges and return the crew to Earth.

The same could be said of some tech crowdfunding campaigns, like the Ouya Android gaming console, Ubuntu Edge smartphone, and the Kreyos Meteor smartwatch. These campaigns illustrate the difficulty of executing a software/hardware product launch in the real world.

All three were quite attractive, albeit for different reasons:

  •     Ouya was envisioned as an inexpensive Android gaming device and media center for people who don’t need a gaming PC or flagship gaming console.
  •     Ubuntu Edge was supposed to be a smartphone-desktop hybrid device for Linux lovers.
  •     The Kreyos Meteor promised to bring advanced gesture and voice controls to smartwatches.

What went wrong with these projects?

    Ouya designers used the latest available hardware, which sounded nice when they unveiled the concept, but was outdated by the time it was ready. Soft demand contributed to a lack of developer interest.
    The Ubuntu Edge was a weird, but good, idea. It managed to raise more than $12 million in a matter of weeks, but the goal was a staggering $32 million. Although quite a few Ubuntu gurus were interested, the campaign proved too ambitious. Like the Ouya, the device came at the wrong time: Smartphone evolution slowed down, competition heated up, prices tumbled.
    The Kreyos Meteor had an overly optimistic timetable, promising to deliver products just months after the funding closed. It was obviously rushed, and the final version suffered from severe software and hardware glitches. On top of that, demand for smartwatches in general proved to be weak.

These examples should illustrate that even promising ideas run into insurmountable difficulties. They got plenty of attention and money, they were sound concepts, but they didn’t pan out. They were not scams, but they failed.

Even industry leaders make missteps, so we cannot hold crowdfunded startups to a higher standard. Here’s the difference: If a new Microsoft technology turns out to be a dud, or if Samsung rolls out a subpar phone, these failures won’t take the company down with them. Big businesses can afford to take a hit and keep going.

Failure in the tech industry is not uncommon.

But, failure is a luxury most startups cannot afford. If they don’t get it right the first time around, it’s game over.

Why Crowdfunding Fails: Fraud, Incompetence, Wishful Thinking?

There is no single reason that would explain all crowdfunding failures, and I hope my examples demonstrate this.

Some failures are obvious scams, and they confirm we need more regulation. Others are bad ideas backed by good marketing, while some are genuinely good ideas that may or may not succeed, just like any other product. Even sound ideas executed by good people can fail.

Does this mean we should forget about crowdfunding? No, but first we have to accept the fact that crowdfunding isn’t for everyone, that it’s not a good choice for every project, and that something is very wrong with crowdfunding today:

  •     The idea behind crowdfunding was to help people raise money for small projects.
  •     Crowdfunding platforms weren’t supposed to help entrepreneurs raise millions of dollars.
  •     Most Kickstarter campaigns never get fully funded, and successful ones usually don’t raise much money. One fifth of submitted campaigns are rejected by Kickstarter, while one in ten fully-funded campaigns never deliver on their promises.
  •     Even if all goes well, crowdfunded products still have to survive the ultimate test: The Market.

Unfortunately, some crowdfunding platforms don’t appear eager to scrutinize dodgy campaigns before they raise heaps of money. This is another problem with crowdfunding today: Everyone wants a sweet slice of the crowdfunded pie, but nobody wants a single crumb of responsibility.

That’s why I’m no optimist; I think we will keep seeing spectacular crowdfunding failures in the future.

Why Nobody Cares About Your Great Idea

A wannabe entrepreneur starts chatting to a real entrepreneur:
    “I have an awesome idea for an app that will disrupt…”
    “Wait. Do you have competent designers, developers, funding?”
    “Well, not yet, but…”
    “So what you meant to say is that you have nothing?”

This admittedly corny joke illustrates another problem: On their own, ideas are worthless. However, ideas backed up by hard work, research, and a team of competent people are what keeps the industry going.

Investors don’t care about your awesome idea and never will. Once you start executing your idea and get as far as you can on your own, people may take notice. Investors want to see dedication and confidence. They want to see prototypes, specs, business plans, research; not overproduced videos and promises. If an individual is unwilling or incapable of making the first steps on their own, if they can’t prove they believe in their vision and have the know-how to turn it into reality, then no amount of funding is going to help.

Serious investors don’t just want to see what people hope to do; they want to see what they did before they approached them.

Why not grant the same courtesy to crowdfunding backers?

Column by Toptal written by Nermin Hajdarbegovic

PwC Luxemburgo anuncia un nuevo proyecto de negocio junto con Accelerando Associates

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Cambio de conversación
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrFoto: Oscar F Hevia. Cambio de conversación

El centro de análisis y estudios de mercado de PwC Luxemburgo y Accelerando Associates anunciaron un nuevo proyecto de negocio para ofrecer una serie de informes en wealth management y gestión de activos en los siguientes mercados europeos: Francia, Alemania, Italia, Países Bajos, España, Reino Unido y en los países nórdicos.

Al combinar la experiencia de PwC en la industria de la gestión de activos con el conocimiento de Accelerando Associates del mercado de selección de fondos europeo y del entorno del inversor, estos informes proporcionaran a los gestores de activos un profundo conocimiento del gestor de activos institucional y del mercado wholesale de selección de fondos en varios países europeos. Estos estudios también serán herramientas útiles para guiar a los gestores de activos en el desarrollo de su negocio.

“Estamos entusiasmados con la colaboración con PwC Luxemburgo. La combinación de nuestros recursos, conocimiento y perspectivas supondrán nuevos estándares en términos de la gestión de activos y de la distribución de informes especializados por países en la industria. Las fuerzas conjuntas garantizan una inteligencia de la información minuciosa y completa y altamente práctica para los gestores de activos a nivel mundial”, comentó Philip Kalus, fundador y socio director de Accelerando.

“Combinar nuestros esfuerzos con Accelerando nos permitirá servir todavía mejor a la comunidad dedicada a la gestión de activos, proporcionando valiosos informes sobre países europeos para ayudar a definir una estrategia d edistribución de fondos adecuada”, añadió Steven Libby, socio y responsable de Asset & Wealth Management para PwC Luxemburgo. 

AXA IM Creates Global Platform for Alternative Credit

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 AXA Investment Managers (AXA IM) recently announced the merger of its Alternative Solutions and Structured Finance teams to create a single global alternative credit platform under the leadership of Deborah Shire, Head of Structured Finance.

Commenting on the announcement, John Porter, Global Head of Fixed Income & Structured Finance at AXA IM, said: “AXA IM’s Structured Finance team has been a pioneer in the disintermediation of credit markets since its inception in the late 1990s and today provides a length of track record across credit cycles, volume of assets under management, and a breadth and depth of expertise that few asset managers can rival. We believe that by combining the talent, resources and skillset of our Alternative Solutions team we can create a simpler and more agile structure to the benefit of our clients.”

The merger will create a single alternative credit platform with a presence in Paris, London and Greenwich (Connecticut). The combined team will encompass 100 professionals providing management and advisory services to over €31 billion of assets covering loans, private debt, collateralised loan obligations, insurance linked securities, asset backed securities, fund of hedge funds and impact investing.

Porter added: “Deborah has more than 20 years of experience across alternative asset classes and under her leadership our structured finance offering has experienced strong growth with assets under management rising by 29% since she took over in September 2014 and capital raised to date this year of €3.5 billion. We are confident that under her direction our alternative credit platform will continue to grow and excel in delivering innovative solutions to meet clients’ needs.”

Deborah Shire said: “AXA IM’s integrated alternative credit platform will offer better visibility and a wider range of investment opportunities to our existing and future clients. In the context of a low rate environment investors are increasingly looking for high yielding and  diversifying assets to provide returns but they also want peace of mind i.e. transparency and a trusted partner who aims to deliver consistently throughout credit cycles. I believe our disciplined management style combined with our strong fundamental credit skills and market knowledge will enable us to continue to earn our clients’ trust. I look forward to working with my colleagues to expand AXA IM’s footprint as a market leader in the alternative credit space.”

Eric Lhomond, previously Global Head of the Alternative Solutions team, has decided to leave AXA IM in order to pursue a new opportunity.

Julien Fourtou, Global Head of MACS & TSF, said: “Eric has worked across the AXA Group for over 17 years. He spent the last two years at AXA IM leading our Alternative Solutions team which encompasses fund of hedge funds, impact investing and alternative credit solutions. We would like to take this opportunity to thank him for his significant contribution and to wish him all the very best for the future. Eric will be working closely with the team to ensure as smooth a transition as possible.”

China FMCs Improve Revenues, Profits in 2015

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Despite the downturn in China markets in the second half of 2015, Chinese fund management companies (FMCs) saw revenues and profits rising in 2015. Many FMCs saw double-digit and even triple-digit net profit growth during the year.

This is one of the key findings of a research initiative by Cerulli Associates entitled Asset Management in China 2016. This research initiative is divided into three parts: two quarterly strategic overview reports followed by our annual report scheduled for release in the third quarter of 2016. This key finding was presented in the second strategic overview, released this month.

Cerulli’s research shows that six FMCs reported net profits of more than RMB1 billion in 2015. China Asset Management was the most profitable with RMB1.41 billion in net profit, followed by ICBC Credit Suisse Asset Management with a net profit of RMB1.29 billion for 2015.

For the largest 20 managers in China, the average net profit margin was 30.4% in 2015 while the net profit yield–which measures how much managers earn in basis points for each renminbi they manage–was approximately 28.5 basis points. Fullgoal Fund Management showed the best net profit yield last year at 56.9 basis points.

Institutions continue to play a big part in growing FMCs revenues and profits. «Institutional investors are estimated to have contributed one-third of assets under management as at end-2015. We understand that they prefer one to-one segregated accounts because such accounts are more flexible in active management and in using leverage,» says Miao Hui, senior analyst with Cerulli who leads the China research initiative.

Institutional investors also welcome «customized mutual funds,» or funds launched for specific investors that meet the minimum number of subscribers, with lower leverage allowed. Still, it will be hard for FMCs to sustain 2015’s profit levels in 2016. «While institutional investors’ participation in capital markets is expected to grow in 2016, FMCs’ profits will be hard to maintain under current volatile market conditions,» Hui adds.

Los bancos centrales y la definición de la locura

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Central Banks and the Definition of Insanity
Foto: mark yang . Los bancos centrales y la definición de la locura

Con frecuencia se dice que la definición de locura es hacer lo mismo una y otra vez, esperando un resultado diferente. Esto parece ser una lección que los bancos centrales no han podido entender.

Durante el auge de la crisis financiera de 2008, las autoridades monetarias globales han recurrido a todos los frenos para evitar un desastre, incluyendo tasas más bajas /tasas cero / tasas negativas, proyecciones positivas, la operación Twist, la flexibilización cuantitativa, financiamiento para planes de préstamos, y ahora la posibilidad del «dinero helicóptero.»

Con seguridad, los bancos centrales merecen un aplauso por su creatividad y uso flexible de los instrumentos de política monetaria cuando la economía mundial se fue en picada. Aunque es imposible demostrarlo, sin duda podría haber sido peor de no haber actuado de manera decisiva. Ya sea mediante el enfoque del Banco de Japón, las iniciativas de Mario Draghi, o la política de «boca abierta» de la Reserva Federal, dichas acciones extraordinarias enviaron una sólida señal. Un mensaje lo suficientemente poderoso como para cambiar el sentimiento en momentos en que se necesitaba con urgencia.

¿Qué sigue a lo «extraordinario»?

Hoy, sin embargo, ese mismo mensaje puede estar haciendo más daño que bien. Aunque debajo de lo esperado, la recuperación/expansión global atraviesa por su 8o año. En este contexto, la política monetaria extraordinaria parece no conectar con un mundo que ahora crece lentamente y no está en crisis. Los consumidores y las empresas no entienden de los matices técnicos de las tasas negativas o el dinero helicóptero, pero reconocen que las políticas extremas sólo se justifican ante una perspectiva extremadamente grave. Esta desconexión no lleva a los consumidores a los centros comerciales ni anima a los CEO’s a invertir en proyectos de capital. Después de ocho años, las políticas que una vez aumentaron la confianza ahora la desaniman, diluyendo o posiblemente descompensando los mismos beneficios que las tasas bajas ofrecían originalmente.

Los efectos secundarios

Si la política extraordinaria está socavando la confianza, ¿es hora de un cambio? La normalización de la política monetaria, obviamente, conlleva sus propios riesgos: aumentar las tasas de interés o relajar la compra de activos podría desacelerar aún más la economía global e incluso causar una próxima recesión. Aunque reconocemos este riesgo, creemos que los bancos centrales han llegado a un punto de inflexión en el que los efectos secundarios negativos de la política extraordinaria ahora parecen ser mayores que sus beneficios. Estos efectos secundarios incluyen:
 
1.      Mayor probabilidad de burbujas de activos
2.      Aumento de pasivos y presiones en el balance de los bancos, compañías de seguros, y fondos de pensión
3.      Mayor tendencia de los individuos a ahorrar más para compensar la disminución del retorno
4.      Menos ingresos por intereses para el gasto de la generación baby boom
5.      Pérdida de competitividad y eficiencia ya que las tasas anormalmente bajas permiten que empresas «zombi» se mantengan operando indefinidamente.
6.      Una excusa conveniente para los reguladores de eludir sus responsabilidades para implementar las reformas estructurales y proporcionar estímulos fiscales.
 
Aclaro, no pedimos condiciones monetarias más estrictas o agresivas, sólo un distanciamiento de las políticas ultra acomodaticias que han hecho poco para impulsar el crecimiento en los últimos años. Cabe destacar que no todos los bancos centrales se enfrentan a las mismas ventajas y desventajas. Varios países y regiones se encuentran en diferentes puntos del ciclo, por lo que cada uno tendrá que decidir cómo ponderar la reacción en cadena. En EE.UU., sin embargo, un crecimiento levemente más fuerte y la inflación permiten a la Fed un mayor margen de acción que muchos otros bancos centrales. Si bien el Comité Federal de Mercado Abierto (FOMC) probablemente no aumente las tasas esta semana, la reunión es una oportunidad importante para transmitir una estrategia de salida que inspire más confianza.

Columna de Natixis escrita por David Lafferty, CFA

 

German Equities, Four times More Profitable than an Oktoberfest Maß

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Germany’s Oktoberfest is famous the world over for its traditional costumes and, most of all, its one-litre “Maß” mugs of beer. But have you thought about what beer can teach you about the world of finance and economics?

Hans-Jörg Naumer, Head of Global Capital Market Analysis and Thematic Research at Allianz Global Investors and his team prepared an infographic that compares the number of Okoberfest Maß that EUR 10 buys versus what that same money will have become if invested in German equities back in 1960. The result, Pint-sized economics!

“As our research shows, the equivalent of EUR 10 in 1960 would have been more than enough to buy an entire round for you and nine friends. But thanks to inflation, the price of a Maß has gone from 95 cents in 1960 to EUR 10.50 today – not even enough for one drink. Yet if you had skipped your drinks in 1960 and invested EUR 10 in German equities, you would now have EUR 395. That would buy you an inflation-busting 37 Maß at Oktoberfest. Prost!” Concludes Naumer.

Las firmas de real estate tienen perspectivas positivas, a pesar de la caída del volumen de ventas

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Study Finds Real Estate Firms Have Positive Outlook, Despite Sales Volume Decrease
Foto: enki22 . Las firmas de real estate tienen perspectivas positivas, a pesar de la caída del volumen de ventas

La gran mayoría de las empresas de real estate tienen perspectivas optimistas para el futuro en lo que a rentabilidad y crecimiento de la industria se refiere, de acuerdo con el 2016 Profile of Real Estate Firms elaborado por la Asociación Nacional de Realtors (NAR), de Estados Unidos. Las expectativas de rentabilidad han bajado con respecto al año pasado, debido principalmente a la escasez de inventario y al aumento de los precios de las viviendas, pero los operadores de esta industria siguen confiando en su rentabilidad global a futuro.

«Por segundo año consecutivo, la mayoría de las empresas de real estate tienen previsiones positivas con respecto a su rentabilidad: hay un 91% de ellas que espera que sus ingresos netos aumenten o no varíen con respecto a 2016 el próximo año», declara Tom Salomone, presidente de NAR y propietario del broker inmobiliario Real Estate II, en Coral Springs, Florida. «A pesar de lo positivo de las perspectivas, el bajo inventario y los altos precios han conducido a una disminución global del volumen de ventas de la firmas en los últimos 12 meses. Los altos precios frenan a los compradores de primera vivienda, y el bajo inventario implica un menor número de ventas en un momento en que hay mas agentes inmobiliarios».

En 2016, el 64% de las empresas espera que la rentabilidad (ingresos netos) de todas las actividades de real estate aumenten en el próximo año, frente al 68% que lo hacía el año pasado. El 67% de las firmas del sector comercial y el 70% de las grandes enseñas -las que tienen cuatro oficinas o mas- esperan que la rentabilidad mejore, frente al 75% de 2015 y el 65% de las del sector residencial.

El 43% de las empresas espera que aumente la competencia el próximo año por parte de firmas no tradicionales, bajando desde el 45% de 2015. El 46% espera que crezca la competencia por parte de empresas virtuales (creciendo desde el 41% de 2015), mientras que sólo el 17% espera que la mayor competencia venga de empresas tradicionales.

El sentimiento de competencia ha alimentado el incremento de contrataciones desde la encuesta de 2015. 47% de las empresas –frente a 44% el año pasado- han declarado estar reclutando activamente agentes de ventas, siendo más frecuente en las empresas residenciales (51%) que en las comerciales (32%); y entre las firmas con cuatro oficinas o más (88%) que en las que solo tienen una oficina (39%).

Cuando se les preguntó por los mayores desafíos para los próximos dos años, las empresas citaron la rentabilidad (49%), mantenerse al día con la tecnología (48%), el mantenimiento de suficiente inventario (48%) y el reclutamiento de agentes más jóvenes (36%).

Election Politics: Too Bad Investors Can’t Turn the Channel

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The debate points to a lurking problem for the markets

The level of discourse was so disappointing in last week’s U.S. presidential debate that it was tempting to move up the dial and watch pro football, where the combatants at least get to wear helmets. Personal attacks, rancorous exchanges, smirks and eye rolling…they epitomized why many voters have despaired over the choice they face.

What all this focus on personality obscures, of course, is the actual issues the country faces and the philosophical differences that could seriously impact how to solve them—whether low growth, suffocating regulation, federal debt, health care, income inequality or national security, to name a few.

Not all the issues have concrete implications for investors at this stage. In recent weeks, my CIO colleagues and I have taken turns considering potential drivers for the economy and markets. Erik Knutzen, CIO for Multi-Asset Class, talked about a global focus in U.S. earnings and whether weakness could contribute to new volatility in a market that is “priced to perfection”; Fixed Income CIO Brad Tank considered the potential impacts of Japan’s steps toward “helicopter money”; and I explored whether the two major U.S. political parties could work to improve the country’s dilapidated infrastructure.

Rating the Election’s Impact

As far as the election is concerned, it’s hard to tell what the impact will be. Over the last eight presidential election cycles, inauguration years have seen exceptionally strong returns for the S&P 500, with an average gain of nearly 20% and in several cases returns of over 30%. Only in 2001, in the wake of the tech bubble, did the year turn out to be negative. In part, this positive trend may be a function of stimulus leading up to elections, or reduced policy uncertainty, or simply a touch of optimism tied to the fresh start of a four-year term. It may be a simplistic idea, but elections ultimately have tended to be a catalyst for stocks.

Could this time be different? A key concern is negative voter perception of both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, who have the highest unfavorable ratings of any presidential candidates in modern history.1 Regardless of who gets elected, residual anger on the part of the losing party could intensify already entrenched gridlock.

This ties into prospects for fiscal stimulus, ideally in the form of new infrastructure spending, or a deal to repatriate corporations’ overseas earnings. We remain skeptical on that front, and we believe that politicians could keep relying on easy money from the Federal Reserve to bail them out along with the economy. With minimal action in Washington, it seems likely that GDP could continue stumbling along at a 1%-2% pace in the coming year.

Softening Angle on Equities

Such meager growth of course provides little fuel for the stock market. Our Asset Allocation Committee recently downgraded its 12-month outlook for U.S. equities to “slightly underweight,” given rich valuations, a modestly higher rate forecast and potential volatility tied to earnings stagnation.

It would be tempting to minimize the potential impact of the presidential race, to “change the channel” and focus strictly on fundamentals that undoubtedly can sway the markets. But there’s a point where electoral combat and likely gridlock weigh on earnings prospects and growth trends. My “Hail Mary pass” would be that this contest will shake things up enough that politicians will work together, at least for a while, to deal with entrenched problems.

 Neuberger Berman’s CIO insight by Joseph V. Amato