According to a survey conducted for the recently released The Cerulli Report Asian Wealth Management 2016, about 50% of the survey respondents said they expect an annual return equivalent to the one-year savings deposit rate plus 5%, which translates to a return of about 6.5% to 6.9%.
However, the survey also found that the more investment experience respondents have, the higher their return expectations. Almost 30% of the survey respondents are eyeing an annual return of more than 10%.
Earning high returns over a short period of time is always the ideal scenario for investors. As such, products that have good liquidity in the Chinese market, such as mutual funds, are typically churned regularly as investors seek to make a quick buck. Liquid mutual fund products can show an annual turnover of more than seven times, even fixed-income funds show an annual turnover of two to three times.
The pursuit of higher returns naturally leads to a preference for higher-risk products. More than 70% of the survey respondents said they want to invest in stock and equity products, including real estate investment trusts (REITs), in the next six months. Further, more than 50% of them said that they have been introduced to stocks and equity products.
Cerulli notes that this interest could be related to expectations of an eventual recovery in China’s equity markets after the collapse of A-shares in June last year. But, for now, cash and deposits are still the preferred products due to a shortage of quality assets.
Compared with about a year ago, when PIMCO increased credit risk, they are taking less overall credit and “spread risk“, and have been shifting their portfolios into areas of the credit market where they see the most favorable risk/reward. This shift, while subtle, underscores their views on credit sectors positioned to withstand the potential changes and uncertainties in the market outlook. Specifically, PIMCO sees opportunities in the following areas in global fixed income credit sectors:
High quality corporate bonds: PIMCO favors industries tied to the U.S. consumer, including cable, telecom, gaming, airlines and lodging, which should remain supported by solid consumer fundamentals, rising confidence and prospective tax cuts. They also continue to like banks and financials, which benefit both from moderately higher interest rates and steeper yield curves as well as the potential for less onerous and costly regulation under Trump. Finally, PIMCO continues to believe mid-stream energy/MLPs/pipelines offer the most attractive risk/reward in the energy sector given higher energy prices and the prospect for a pickup in volume growth in the U.S. shale regions.
Bank capital/specialty finance: They believe select opportunities exist in U.S./UK/European bank capital securities and specialty finance companies where their bottom-up credit research seeks to identify companies with improving fundamentals. “These sectors should benefit from a gradual pickup in nominal GDP, an improvement in earnings growth and rising equity market capitalization. Current bank capital valuations have cheapened relative to high yield, and deregulation should be particularly supportive for specialty finance companies”.
Non-agency mortgages: The risk/reward on non-agency mortgages continues to look attractive given current loss-adjusted spreads and a healthy U.S. housing market, which remains supported by a solid labor market, deleveraged consumer balance sheets and favorable demand/supply.
Agency mortgages: Valuations on high-quality agency mortgages have cheapened considerably over the past few months. They are now increasingly attractive both outright as well as relative to U.S. Treasuries given the recent backup in interest rates.
Foto: eperales. Fidelity consigue en China la calificación que le permite crear productos para inversores institucionales y altos patrimonios domésticos
Fidelity International anunció esta semana que su firma de Shanghái de propiedad totalmente extranjera se ha convertido en el primer gestor de activos global en registrarse en la Asociación de Gestión de Activos de China (AMAC en inglés) como una compañía de gestión de fondos privados.
Esta calificación permite a Fidelity International crear por primera vez productos para inversores institucionales domésticos y de alto patrimonio de China y es crucial para la estrategia a largo plazo de la firma en el gigante asiático. Fundada en septiembre de 2015 en Shanghái, FIL Investment Management Company Limited, es la primera compañía global de gestión de activos a la que se otorga esta calificación.
«Este es un hito significativo para facilitar nuestra expansión en la segunda economía más grande del mundo. Gracias al apoyo de la Comisión Reguladora de Valores de China (CSRC) y de AMAC, tenemos el honor de ser la primera empresa en recibir esta calificación de gestión de fondos privados», dijo Mark Talbot, managing directorde Asia Pacífico de Fidelity International.«Hemos estado operando en China desde 2004, ofreciendo capacidades offshore a clientes institucionales nacionales e inversionistas minoristas mediante la asociación con bancos bajo el programa de Inversor Institucional Nacional Calificado (QDII). Esta calificación amplía nuestras capacidades para dar respuesta a las necesidades de los clientes chinos de invertir tanto en el extranjero como en el mercado doméstico».
«China es crucial para nuestra estrategia de crecimiento global. Ahora podemos adoptar un enfoque a largo plazo para desarrollar las mejores soluciones para nuestros clientes que satisfagan sus necesidades de inversión y jubilación», añadió Talbot.
Fidelity International tiene oficinas de representación en Shanghái y Beijing, así como un centro operativo en Dalian, y tiene en total más de 400 empleados en China. Fidelity International tiene una cuota de 1.200 millones de dólares bajo el esquema de Inversor Institucional Extranjero Calificado (QFII), una de las mayores cifras mantenidas por cualquier administrador de fondos a nivel mundial. La cuota QFII permite a Fidelity International invertir en los mercados de capitales chinos.
«Creemos firmemente que una presencia local en China es clave no sólo para entender las necesidades de los clientes, sino también para identificar activamente las oportunidades de inversión», dijo Daisy Ho, managing director de Asia Pacífico excluido Japón de Fidelity International.
The latest European ETF Market Review from Thomson Reuters Lipper shows that positive market impacts in combination with net inflows led to increased assets under management in the European ETF industry (€496.1 bn) for November, up from €483.8 bn at the end of October.
Detlef Glow, Head of EMEA research at Thomson Reuters Lipper is the author of the report that also found that:
The increase of €12.3 bn for November was mainly driven by the performance of markets (+€7.5 bn), while net sales contributed €4.8 bn to the assets under management in the ETF segment.
Equity ETFs (+€8.2 bn) posted the highest net inflows for November.
The best selling Lipper global classification for November was Equity US (+€2.6 bn), followed by Equity Global (+€2.0 bn) and Equity Europe (+€1.2 bn).
BNP Paribas, with net sales of €1.4 bn, was the best selling ETF promoter in Europe, followed by Source (+€0.9 bn) and Vanguard Group (+€0.8 bn).
The ten best selling funds gathered total net inflows of €4.2 bn for November.
iShares Core S&P 500 UCITS ETF USD (Acc) (+€0.7 bn), was the best selling individual ETF for November.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch Research Team has published the 2016 year end Funds Flow Report. “QE drove fund flows in 2016, but the past two months has been all about reversing this trend. Even though high-grade and EM debt funds have been the main beneficiaries of QE-mania, recent developments have shifted momentum to the negative side.” They find.
Equities have been the biggest loser in 2016, with outflows mounting to $100bn, as investors flocked to QE-eligible assets. HY funds closed the year on negative territory in terms of flows, despite the recent rebound. Commodities were the biggest winner for most of 2016, but rising rates reversed the strong inflow seen over the first part of the year.
Last week of the year…
High grade funds had their first week of inflows after seven weeks of outflows, and the inflows were spread across a wide range of funds. High yield funds continued to see inflows for a fourth week, at a strong $1bn+ rate. The inflows of the last week of the year came across the board. Global, US and European-focused funds in Europe recorded strong inflows.
Government bond funds flows flipped back to positive territory after two weeks of relatively heavy outflows. Money market funds weekly flow data point to a third week of outflows, albeit marginal. Overall, fixed income funds flows flipped back to positive after seven weeks of outflows. European equity funds recorded a marginal outflow last week.
French asset management giant Amundi has soft-launched a water fund, the Amundi KBI Aqua fund on 16 December 2016.
The inception of this new strategy comes after the acquisition of KBI Global Investors (formerly Kleinwort Benson Investors) by Amundi in August 2016. KBIGI runs four natural resources strategies including the KBIGI Water Strategy for institutional clients.
The Amundi KBI Aqua fund, domiciled in France, aims to invest globally in companies of the water sector, an investment universe of around 150 stocks. It will consist of a portfolio of 50 stocks.
Stocks selected will be these of companies that provide solutions to prevent and/or address water shortage issues, make a significant part of their turnover or that are recognized as leaders in the water sector.
Services, infrastructure and technology remain among sectors targeted by the Amundi KBI Aqua Fund.
According to fund literature, the stock selection will rely on a qualitative and fundamental approach including the assessment of the earning growth potential of companies and of their capabilities to achieve constant growth over the long term; the assessment of specific risks by studying the companies’ business models, management, long-term strategies, competitive edges and financial health; the assessment of the companies’ relative and absolute values.
The equity exposure of the fund will be comprised between 80% and 120% of its net assets, regardless of geographic areas or market capitalization.
The Amundi KBI Aqua fund can also invest up to 30% in companies with headquarters in emerging markets.
Amundi has over EUR 1 trillion in assets under management as of end of September 2016.
Many times while speaking to service providers, fund managers, and industry-insiders there is talk about how the ultra-wealthy are thrifty or cheap. Typically this talk comes from those trying to get money or fees from these families, but the topic has come up enough that Richard C. Wilson, CEO & Founder of the Family Office Club wanted to address it directly from what he has found to be true.
Top 6 reasons Billionaires are seen as Cheap:
Bigger Target: As families reach a billion dollars in net worth it is harder for them to hide because of their number of employees, and accomplishments in selling a business or owning a large operating entity. Also, the very fact that they are worth around $1B or more and not just $20M or $100M makes every person who hears of the family likely to tell others about them, further making it harder to “fly under the radar” and avoid a constant line of sales pitches. As a bigger target billionaire families get pitched many times a day by service providers, consultants, fund managers, politicians, non-profits, impact investment groups, and their own friends and family for money. This forces them to build walls around them, a thicker skin, and most times thinner patience for such activity.
Control: As you may have read about in my recent book “The Single Family Office,” many of the world’s wealthiest families became so through controlling a large stake in an operating business. This level of influence on where a company is going and being able to manage the details becomes part of who they are. I have seen that this carries over to service providers as well, the families may want to work with someone local, or not hire anyone at all as they may feel more comfortable and in control of costs and delivery by hiring some of the best talent and having them work internally on their IT, accounting, or investment management work rather than outsourcing.
Budget Perception: One reason I believe many see billionaire families as overly thrifty is a misconception on their budgets internally. Just about every family I speak with talks about being resource constrained, even if they are worth $20B as one middle east family I know relatively well, they are not a $150B asset manager or sovereign wealth fund, and they have real team and due diligence constraints. An IT service provider for example may see that a customer service business is owned by a $1B+ net worth family and may think they want the best of the best, top of the line solution for their cloud security. That customer service business may only be doing $10M a year in revenue, so the billionaire family may only sign off on spending $10,000 a year on a cloud solution and not $150,000 a year as the IT consultant “knows” they should as a best practice. The problem is that the IT person believes the family is going to throw money at something based on the family’s net worth and not the business unit’s budget.
Leverage: Many investment funds and service providers would like to brag about having a billionaire family as a client, and these families know that. For example, in our Family Office Executive Search subsidiary, we landed a billionaire family and their foundations as a client last month, and we were open to charging a slightly lower fee simply because it was a great family to be serving, well-known globally, and most importantly we wanted to grow that relationship long-term for other ways to work together such as speaking at one of our Wilson Conferences or exploring our $400M AUM Platinum & Gold Storage & Investment Partnership (precious metals).
Necessity: Many families have weathered depressions and downturns in their business to get to where they are, so they know when things get tough that they need to either already be lean or know how to strip the business down to what is critical for core operations. This breeds a mindset of wasting less, and when something is not critical to raising revenue or profits then the family more carefully allocates resources to it. There is also a lack of blind trust placed in all but the top-tier most trusted service providers, such as a world-class attorney or CPA, in believing what is being recommended to the family. The trouble with outsourcing or relying upon outside counsel in many areas such as IT, insurance, staffing, etc. is that often times the more informed person in the room, recommending how the family spends their money is also the person profiting from that spend (IT consultant, insurance broker, executive search firm, etc).
Stewardship: Finally, those who have reached $100M or a $1B in wealth are in some cases superior stewards of their wealth, mostly in terms of building it, but also defending it against those who would want to take some of it from them whether it be competitors, litigators, etc. They have learned over time that everything is negotiable and many families have built their wealth by buying distressed assets, not overpaying staff, and slashing expenses after taking a company over. These families pride themselves on running operations lean to maximize their bottom line on a business.
«Are billionaires cheap? There are examples of giving away a Ferrari to a friend and washing out Ziploc bags to re-use them that show extremes on both ends of the spectrum, but the next time someone complains that an utlra-wealthy family is “cheap” I believe the points above would explain a good portion of the drivers behind that perception.» He concludes.
Foto: Falkenpost. Deutsche Asset Management incorpora a Robert Thomas como co director de Real Estate Securities en las Américas
El negocio de Inversiones Alternativas de Deutsche Asset Management ha contratado a Robert Thomas como co director de Real Estate Securities para las Américas y co director de la gestión de carteras. Thomas trabajará junto a David Zonavetch, que ocupa el mismo puesto. En su nueva posición será responsable de la administración conjunta de las estrategias de valores inmobiliarios de los Estados Unidos y de la asignación de valores de real estate de las Américas dentro de las estrategias globales de valores inmobiliarios. Reportará a John Vojticek, director y CIO de Liquid Real Assets, y estará basado en Chicago.
«Estamos encantados de dar la bienvenida a Bob a la firma y estamos deseando trabajar con él. Su experiencia profesional y la pasión por la inversión de valores inmobiliarios que trae, incluyendo una filosofía de inversión similar, son un complemento para nuestro equipo «, declaró Vojticek.
Thomas tiene más de 15 años de experiencia en el análisis y gestión de valores inmobiliarios públicos y privados. Antes de unirse a Deutsche Asset Management, trabajó como director de North American Property Equities y fue portfolio manager en Henderson Global Investors. Con anterioridad, fue director de un equipo de cuatro personas en Estados Unidos y parte de un equipo global de 15 personas responsable de gestionar las estrategias de real estate cotizado globalmente para clientes institucionales y particulares en AMP Capital Investors. Thomas también tiene una amplia experiencia como analista de investigación senior cubriendo valores inmobiliarios en una amplia gama de segmentos inmobiliarios.
Pixabay CC0 Public Domain. ‘Lower for longer’: ¿Dónde se puede encontrar rentabilidad actualmente?
2016 was certainly the year of surprises –with Brexit and Trump shocking the world. Yet, besides short-lived market sell-offs, global markets were relatively resilient. So what might be on the horizon for investors in 2017? William Nygren , Partner and Equity Manager at Harris Associates (Natixis Global Asset Management), explains his views about growth in 2017, answering three key qestions.
1. Anemic growth?
“For several years, we’ve been anticipating that global growth would return to near the pre- Global Financial Crisis levels. And each year the World Bank started out by projecting that reasonable growth was just around the corner. Then as the year progressed, they had to consistently cut their expectations. Low growth has allowed interest rates to remain at near-zero levels, has allowed commodity prices to remain below prices needed to justify new exploration, and has resulted in the earnings of cyclical companies being below trend”.
2. Growth momentum?
“If 2017 is finally the year when growth surprises to the upside, it would likely be accompanied by very different sectors leading the stock market. That is why we favor companies that may benefit from rising interest rates (banks and other financial companies), rising commodity prices (energy companies), and higher earnings from industrial cyclicals”.
3. Unknowns of Trump administration.
“The U.S. political scene will be of key importance in determining whether or not global growth accelerates. Throughout a very nasty presidential campaign, many policies were promised from the prevailing party that were both pro-growth and anti-growth. If the new Trump administration focuses on tax reform and reducing the burden from regulations, the result would likely be a meaningful increase in growth. If instead the focus is on restricting global trade and deporting illegal immigrants, growth would likely decrease”.
“We believe the likelihood is much higher that pro-growth policies will prevail, but would also add that over many years the forces of global growth have proven strong enough to overcome misguided government policies. As long-term investors, we believe the valuations are compelling for the companies that would most benefit from renewed economic strength».
One surprise that could catch us off guard
According to the expert, a return to growth could create a very unpleasant surprise for many investors, as investments widely perceived as safe could be riskier than those perceived as risky. “Investors tend to look at the risk of a stock as being the potential deviation of earnings from the anticipated level, and pay little attention to price. We have been saying for some time that low-volatility businesses priced at historically high relative P/E ratios are riskier than higher-volatility businesses priced at low relative P/Es. With interest rates so low, the stable, low-growth businesses that pay out a high percentage of profits as dividends have become favorite “bond substitutes” for investors seeking higher yield than is available in the bond market. These companies have typically been priced at lower-than-average P/Es, but today sell at substantial premiums”.
“Even if the businesses perform about as expected, there is substantial risk should the P/E ratios revert to their long-term averages. If interest rates rise, as we expect, then P/E reversion is the likely outcome. This is why we currently find most electric utilities, telecom providers, or U.S.-based consumer packaged goods businesses unattractive.
Additionally, in a higher interest rate environment, stocks would likely prove less risky than the long-term bonds that investors have bid up to historically low yields. 2017 could be a year that turns investor thinking about risk upside down”.
Foto: Geralt. Cuatro posibles escenarios para el asesoramiento digital
El CFP Board Center for Financial Planning reunió a varios expertos para trabajar sobre los futuros impactos del asesoramiento digital sobre la planificación financiera. El objetivo del conocido como “Grupo de trabajo de asesoramiento digital” (Digital Advice Working Group) era ampliar la forma en que los profesionales piensan acerca de cómo los entornos y eventos futuros podrían conducir a la industria por diferentes caminos.
Utilizando un enfoque de planificación de escenarios -facilitado por la consultora Heidrick & Struggles-, el grupo creó una matriz de cuatro posibles resultados futuros, que son:
Todo el mundo se digitaliza: en este escenario, las mismas y sofisticadas plataformas de asesoramiento digital sustentan tanto la experiencia online del consumidor como las herramientas utilizadas por los asesores financieros humanos. Mientras que la tecnología continúa avanzando dentro de nichos, las preocupaciones regulatorias han impedido la creación de una experiencia integral, holística para aquellos que solicitan asesoramiento financiero.
El día del juicio: este escenario supone que el asesoramiento digital acelera hasta el punto de ubicuidad, con algún tipo de asesoramiento financiero disponible de forma gratuita para la mayoría de los consumidores. Gracias a los avances en el aprendizaje automático, las plataformas digitales de asesoramiento ahora pueden «pensar» como un asesor financiero y proporcionar planes financieros integrales que abarcan la gestión de inversiones, la gestión de patrimonio, la planificación fiscal, la jubilación y otras disciplinas financieras.
El resurgir de los humanos: en este caso, la creciente complejidad de los productos financieros extiende el horizonte temporal para realizar una mayor automatización de asesoramiento financiero. Eventos imprevistos del mercado que sorprenden a los roboadvisors reducen su credibilidad ante los consumidores e impulsan la contratación de asesores humanos para enfatizar el «toque humano». A medida que las plataformas de asesoramiento digital cambian su enfoque hacia el mercado B2B, la automatización del back office ayuda a los asesores a reducir costes, personal y, en gran medida, escalar las carteras de sus clientes.
Regreso al futuro: un ciberataque dirigido a una plataforma de asesoramiento digital aleja a los consumidores de sistemas sin humanos y genera preferencia por el asesor financiero humano. Los avances en tecnología de back office y automatización, sin embargo, no se ralentizan, liberando tiempo para que el asesor se centre en la entrega e implementación del asesoramiento. Los altos estándares fiduciarios en este futuro son los responsables de evitar que los asesores brinden un asesoramiento más holístico que integre todos los aspectos del bienestar financiero de los consumidores.
«Una gran incertidumbre sigue rodeando la revolución del asesoramiento digital», declara Joe Maugeri, director de relaciones corporativas de CFP Board. «Al mirar múltiples resultados probables –y no solo un escenario- no estamos limitando nuestro futuro a un solo resultado. Animamos a los participantes a imaginar futuros alternativos en los que sus modelos de negocio podrían no ser tan exitosos como lo son hoy o esperan ser en el futuro».
