Internacional archivos - Página 2651 de 3310

Ian Heslop (Old Mutual GI): «Our Strategies are Not a ‘Black Box’, but Rather a Very Transparent ‘Glass Box’

During his presentation at the OMGI Global Markets Forum in Boston, and questioning conventional investment thinking, Ian Heslop, Head of Global Equities at Old Mutual Global Investors, explained the double difficulty of forecasting market behavior. It’s often quite easy to make a mistake when forecasting, but even when the outcome of an event has been forecasted successfully, guessing the market reaction is just as complex. «If someone had been able to foresee the Brexit result, they could have guessed the market’s behavior for about 7 days. If someone predicted that Donald Trump would be elected for president, they could have guessed market behavior for about 7 hours. As a team, we try not to forecast, especially as regards market reactions.»

Another important issue, according to Heslop, is that investors have lost confidence in active management. In the United States, only 27% of active managers are able to beat the S & P 500, the main reason is that many fund managers are not taking enough risks to beat the index: «Firstly, if investing in an active fund which is not taking sufficient active risk, but which charges active management fees, the return will be lower than the index. Secondly, the S & P500 index is also said to be a very efficient index, which it is, to a certain extent, but to attribute the lack of higher yields to the index’ efficiency is to greatly simplify the argument. The difficulty in consistently outperforming it is real enough, but I don’t think it’s based on the efficiency of the index itself. The third reason would be concentrating on a particular style. Active funds are often cyclical in nature. Sometimes it is the value style that gains the favor of the market, in others it is the growth style, or the quality, if the fund only takes into account a particular style of investment, it will not be letting compound interest act correctly, lagging behind the market at some stage.»
As a result, investors have turned their backs on active investment by investing more than US$ 1.4 trillion in US equity ETFs since 2007. «The main problem with indexed products is that investors think they are buying diversified exposure to the US equity market, when in fact the portfolio’s performance comes from 10 shares of the S & P 500. Partly, because these companies represent a significant part of the economy, but to a larger extent it’s due to flows. «

Helsop cited as examples those ETFs that invest in the 100 less volatile stocks of the S & P 500 index, the valuations of which, in terms of price to book value rates, have increased substantially, increasing from 2.37 times in 2013 to 3.59 times in 2017. Another trend is the purchase of equity ETFs with high dividends. Investors often do not take into account their exposure in terms of risks, and are unaware that they are actually buying risk of size, momentum, market sensitivity or beta. «It should be noted that some of the dislocations in the US equity market are directly dependent on the extensive use of ETFs by investors, both from the point of view of market capitalization and from the point of view of exposure of styles in the portfolio. Investors find it very attractive that a particular investment environment can work all of the time, but this is not the case.»

How do we solve the problem?

The market sentiment and perceived level of risk in the market are two factors that determine which type of values are going to perform better than the index. At the end of the first quarter of 2016, the markets were going through a scenario of high volatility with a very negative sentiment. With a macroeconomic scenario very different to that in 2008, the market reflected an environment with little appetite for risk, behaving in the same way, but for very different reasons. Looking at the market’s behavior during the third quarter of 2017, the markets’ scenario is of low volatility and high optimism, where risk appetite has increased. «The approach that active management must take in both scenarios is different, so obtaining results above the index is extremely difficult, being especially complicated if it aims to forecast the outcome of an event and the market’s behavior towards it, something which depends on the sentiment. However, if we try to locate which moment the market is at by measuring its evolution against the change and then adjusting the portfolio accordingly, we will be somewhat behind the market, but we maximize the time in which we have a signal located, being able to discard noise. On the negative side, if we see a very abrupt change over a very short time, it will take a while for the portfolio to adjust. For each period of rapid adjustment to a new state in the market, there are multiple periods of time in which there is no direction in the market, minimizing the loss in those moments.»

The investment and stock selection process

Old Mutual Global Investors’ global equity team uses five variables or themes to identify which type of company will achieve a good result at each moment in the cycle: a dynamic valuation that allows them to be alert at every moment of the cycle and to buy a certain style of investment, sustainable growth, which looks for opportunities within the market, analyst sentiment, which allows them to assess what happened in the company, the company’s management team, whose communications are used to control whether they are acting in the best shareholder interest, market dynamics, with which they try to understand the demand and supply of each stock.

«Our way of managing strategy is not a ‘black box’, but rather a very transparent and rigorous ‘glass box’. We invest and create portfolios in a very rigorous way. The investment process uses the five themes to have or not to have assets in the portfolio. We look at metrics for valuation, quality, growth, revenue, information, momentum, and trends, but what really sets us apart is that we are trying to understand the motives that make a stock perform well. There are environments in which the market is willing to buy stocks of a certain style: value, growth or quality, and if at that time you maintain exposure to that particular style in the portfolios, it will most likely add return to the portfolio»

Helsop also commented that what really matters to the management team is to know the elements that are influencing the market’s direction, something that is the key to understanding how the investors will behave. «We try to respond to the requirement that clients have for a different type of alpha, without forecasting or minimizing the amount of forecasts we use. In our alpha generation process we don’t consider a top-down macroeconomic analysis or a fundamental bottom-up analysis, but we mix all the factors and the result is a different approach that provides the opportunity to diversify».

Funds under the same approach

With nearly 18 billion in assets under management, Old Mutual Global Investors’ equity team manages a number of different strategies; all of them with a high active share. The Old Mutual North American Equity fund strategy, the Old Mutual Global Equity Fund and the Old Mutual Global Equity Income fund are long-only strategies. The first one has about 200 securities in the portfolio and has been managed by Ian Heslop’s team since 2013. The second one has approximately 450 securities and the third has 500 securities and doesn’t invest in those classic names that pay a high dividend and that the rest of funds have in their portfolios. Lastly, the Old Mutual Global Equity Absolute Return strategy with over 650 names in the portfolio is market neutral, being a clear example of how the five factors combine to generate alpha in a different way from the rest of the market. This fund manages about 11 billion dollars in assets.

Investec AM Brought Together Over 130 Professionals from the United States and LatAm in Washington

| Por Meritxell Sedo | 0 Comentarios

At the 10th annual Investec Global Insights held in Washington, Investec Asset Management brought together over 130 professionals from the investment industry, mostly from the United States and Latin America, at the Four Seasons Hotel. The event, which took place on the 19^th and 20^th of October, was attended by the firm’s leading managers and strategists, who shared with attendees their perspectives and positions in the portfolios.
Richard Garland, Managing Director of the Global Advisor division and Hendrik du Toit, CEO of Investec AM, were responsible for the welcoming to the event. Following them, Philip Saunders, Co-Head of the Multi-Asset Growth strategies, explained how to navigate mature bull markets, where both fixed income and equities are at maximum price levels.

Then came the turn to disclose where the opportunities in fixed income and currencies may be found, John Stopford Head of Multi-Asset Income, reminded the audience that despite the low interest rate environment in developed markets, emerging markets continue to offer a decent real profitability. In addition, a selected basket of emerging currencies shows relatively attractive levels.
Then, in a discussion moderated by Stopford himself, Jeff Boswell, Strategy Leader of Developed Markets Credit, Matthew Claeson, Latin American Debt Portfolio Manager, Peter Eerdmans, Co-Head for Emerging Market Fixed Income, and Abrie Pretorious, Quality Capability Portfolio Manager, discussed where to find sustainable sources of income for investors.

To concludethe morning presentations, strategist Michael Power explained the implications of the improvement in solar and wind energy efficiency on the fourth industrial revolution. During the afternoon meetings the attendees had the opportunity to meet with the management teams. Once these meetings were over, they enjoyed a gala dinner at the Warner Theater.

On the second day of the conference, Robert J O’Neill, the Navy Seal who shot Bin Laden, opened with a motivational talk on how to persevere in achieving goals. Following him, Aniket Shah, Program Leader of the Financing for Sustainable Development Initiative at the UNexplained the paradigm shift in an economy that shifts from focusing on theWest to looking to the East and where China takes the lead in global prominence

Emerging markets were the subject of the conferences’ third discussion. Participating in the discussion panel were Chris Freund, Head of SA Equity & Multi-Asset, Carina Güerisoli, Portfolio Manager for Latin America, Victoria Harling, Strategy Leader for Emerging Market Corporate Debt, and Asian Equity Portfolio Manager, Greg Kuhnert.

Lastly, Richard Garland moderated a fourth discussion which addressed the trends of the financial advisory business, participating in this panel were Shane Balkhan, CIO of Beaufort Investments in the UK, Gonzalo Cordova, CEO for LarrainVial in Latin America, Joshua Heimann, Head of WMA International Sales and Business Development for UBS International in the US, and Erich Lang, Executive Director, Head Fund Provider Management for Julius Baer in Switzerland.

How to navigate mature bull markets

In a bullish market environment which seems unstoppable, and with most assets at levels above their historical averages, Philip Saunders remarked that valuations by themselves are rarely the trigger for a sharp drop in the market, revealing that the trigger is usually, in 93% of cases, a significant increase in the cost of capital.

Although fundamentals are favorable and the leading indicators still show no signs of going into recession, Saunders advised taking a somewhat more cautious position, suggesting an increase in liquidity in the portfolios, greater structural diversification, and wider exposure to different sources of return beyond traditional asset classes.

Carrying out a structural diversification requires focusing on the behavior of the assets rather than on their classification. According to Saunders, each asset class can be attributed a growth characteristic if it reacts positively to an increase in risk appetite, a defensive characteristic if its returns are positive when expectations of economic growth decline, and a decorrelation characteristic if returns are not related to economic growth or corporate profits. «Mixing these three characteristics is when you get superior diversification and more consistent results. Selection is important in this type of diversification, we do not have exposure to all assets all the time,» said Saunders.

Regarding the positioning of their portfolio, within growth assets they have a preference for a selective exposure in equities, where, due to the corporate benefits and alpha potential, exposure to global equity markets is favored, with the exception of the US, and they balance the risk with a selection of defensive assets.

A Paradigm Shift: China’s global prominence

Beginning with an allusion to a recent cover of The Economist, which showed Xi Jinping as the most powerful man in the world, Aniket Shah, explained the main themes that are developing in China and how we should think about the side-effects that its development has on Asia and on the rest of the emergent economies. China continues to grow, at a lower rate of growth, but on a higher growth basis. Assuming that China continues to grow at an average rate of 6.5% and the US at an average rate of 2.5%, China’s gross domestic product will reach 22.8 trillion as of 2026, while the US would not reach that figure until 2030.

Although China often has a rather negative narrative, with an excess of debt and production capacity, its prominence is an issue which goes beyond the construction of large infrastructures. «A frequent error in analyzing China’s economy is to believe that its growth depends on the accumulation of physical capital that began in the 1990s, without realizing the importance of human capital; an investment that began in the late 50’s and 60’s, and which is now much more productive. In a recent analysis of the growth of the scientific research which is published in different parts of the world, it can be seen that, from 2003 to 2013, the US has gone from 26% to 18.2% of publications, while China has gone from 6% to 18%, reaching parity with the United States. «

China has set out to stop being a technological copy-cat country by investing heavily in R&D. «One of the most interesting initiatives being carried out by the Chinese government is the «Made in 2025» initiative. The idea, inspired by the German initiative «Industry 4.0», is that China wants more prominence in the country’s production chains, and the figures are quite impressive, specifically, it seeks to make domestic content of the main components of production chains grow from 40% in 2020 to 70% in 2025 «.

The program aims to position itself as a pioneering country in the generation of new information technologies, in high-end machines and robots, in maritime equipment and highly technological ships, in rail transport, in new sources of energy and in energy saving vehicles, in new agricultural machinery, new materials, and in biopharmacy; all of which are critical industries for development within the next 30 years.

Another growth dimension in China that must be taken into account is geographical expansion. China has stepped up its efforts to expand its economic growth across the country, specifically in the western regions. The «one belt, one road» initiative, an attempt to rebuild the old silk route and the creation of a parallel maritime route, created in 2013 by the Chinese authorities, benefits from the enormous low-cost capital capacity of the Chinese economy.

In terms of renewable energy investment, China’s investment is above that of the US, the UK and France combined. In addition, it considers it a key industry when it comes to positioning its global prominence. Most importantly, China is making the necessary efforts to build an economy and society that can meet most of the challenges of the future.

In terms of world trade, China is the largest trading partner of 124 countries, while the US is the main trading partner of only 56 countries. Equity and debt financial markets are growing and gaining in depth. China has already outgrown the Japanese stock market, although it still lags behind the US and European markets, while its bond market is behind that of both the US and Japan.

Shah is therefore convinced that China’s role in the Asian region, and in the world, will only grow, despite the many challenges it faces: «China is becoming the leader in global innovation, in economy, in politics, in international diplomacy and in innovation,» he concluded.

MFS Investment Management: “It’s a Very Complex World for the Fixed Income Investor; a Passive Approach Doesn’t Make Sense”

| Por Fórmate a Fondo | 0 Comentarios

During the 2017 MFS European Investment Forum in London, Bill Adams, Global Fixed Income CIO for MFS Investment Management, explained the different structural reasons why the Boston-based global investment management firm argues that the low interest rate environment will persist for some time, mainly because of a series of structural factors that are persistent headwinds, such as the level of global indebtedness, the disruption of technology which fundamentally affects the lack of inflation in wages, and demographic trends.

Examining structural trends

From a cyclical perspective, global growth has improved, but inflation expectations, both from the point of view of market participants, and from the point of view of central banks, have been persistently wrong.

«It is mainly in developed markets where inflation projections in economies are not being met. This is due to the lack of inflation in wages, money is not being put into workers’ hands and they have less money to return to the economy. And it is precisely this discontent with wages that has provoked the resurgence of populist movements. The disruption of technology has affected workers from both the middle and working classes, who’ve had to return to the labor market with lower wages. The economy’s inability to create inflation is an important issue,» said Bill Adams.

Another issue affecting wage inflation is demographic trends. In developed countries, birthrates have fallen below the level needed to sustain population growth (i.e., more deaths than births). According to MFS ‘research, this has very clear implications for economic growth, inflation and the demand for fixed income products. When older, more experienced workers retire, they do so with higher wages than those workers entering the labor market who may have lower productivity, less experience, and lower wage expectations. «We are seeing an economy that is constantly being challenged by lower growth and inflation in wages.» Adams noted that as more people approach retirement, their needs for income are greater than their needs for growth, the natural movement of these people is to seek greater exposure to fixed income than to equity. «This movement creates a persistent demand in the market for high quality debt.»

Incidentally, the leverage level of the global economies has increased considerably. «Any economy whose debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 100, is impeding future growth by bringing it into the present. We know that the central banks responded to a challenging macroeconomic situation during the Global Financial Crisis, increasing the level of debt on their balance sheets, which caused higher leverage in the economy. There has certainly been an improvement in the metrics on the corporate side, but on public balance sheets, we are reaching the future that we have leveraged, and therefore, we are now struggling to achieve greater growth.”

The performance of central banks

Following Janet Yellen’s announcement at the Federal Reserve’s last meeting in September, the Fed’s balance sheet assets will decline from $ 4.5 trillion to $ 3.5 trillion. This will gradually remove liquidity from the market. But when you look at the central banks as a whole, they continue to provide greater liquidity. But, in global terms, the market continues to pursue an accommodative policy as long as central banks continue to maintain a large number of assets in their balance sheets. This is a trend that MFS does not expect to be reversed until the second half of 2018.

«The Fed’s performance has been very transparent and patient, revealing its plans very prudently. The plan that has been put in place to gradually reduce the size of its balance sheet reflects that they have spent a lot of time, energy, and trillions of dollars in getting the economy out of the stagnation of the financial crisis. I doubt they’d want to risk that progress because of a miscalculation in monetary policy, so the withdrawal will be very slow. Reducing that balance will put interest rates on a positive trajectory, but as long as it runs smoothly, it will ensure that interest rates rise gradually.»

Although similar growth trends are being observed in Europe, there is still no impact on the interest rate environment. European growth has lagged behind the US for years and is now closing that gap with the help of the European Central Bank. «Inflation in Europe starts from a smaller base, and is not yet at a US level.» explained the asset manager.

Where are the opportunities in global fixed income?

Adams argued for the importance of talking to investors about preserving capital, but believes that it is equally critical to expand the opportunities presented in fixed income beyond the country in which the investor resides, seeking global alternatives, and ultimately seeking an active process, with a strong credit selection process, rather than a passive investment or exposure to ETFs.

«At MFS we are increasingly comfortable with the duration of the United States, rather than with the duration of developed Europe or Japan. We are comfortable in choosing portfolio duration, but we are overweighting US duration over developed Europe and Japan. This is an example of how global duration is diversified.»

Since mid-2016, it has been a wonderful environment for risky assets, both high-yield fixed income and emerging fixed income experienced a rally, but at MFS they are beginning to question those good tidings, wondering whether it’s time to ‘take the foot off the accelerator’ and emphasize the preservation of capital.

«Investors should continue to invest in fixed income. There are still opportunities in the market for adding value, but instead of being in an environment where all you had to do was to buy the market, this environment requires higher levels of selection. You need to understand the companies and know what they are offering their investors.»

Adams compared the dispersion in the spreads of the lower part of the high-yield debt spectrum (with CCC rating) against the higher part (BB rating). A collapse in the levels of spreads has been observed and risk has positioned itself aggressively as compared to its lower risk alternative. «High-yield debt with a CCC rating has a default rate of approximately 35% historically, so if you try to get returns by investing in this type of debt, your losses could be greater than what you expect to earn. We are not convinced investors are being adequately compensated for the level of risk in the CCC part of the market.»

Finally, the MFS global debt specialist points out that emerging sovereign debt has responded less aggressively than the high-yield market, so that relative value bets can still be positioned in emerging markets.

«We live in a very complex world, with many challenges for bond investors. We are promoting among our investors the benefits of expanding their investment horizon, with an active selection of securities in that type of environment. When the spreads are compressed and the markets lack dispersion, a passive focus on investments doesn’t make sense to us,» he concludes.

¿Quiénes son las promesas del sector de gestión de activos en Europa?

| Por Gabriela Huerta | 0 Comentarios

Who Are the European Rising Stars of Asset Management 2017? — Foto cedidaFelipe Villarroel, portfolio manager en TwentyFour Asset Management . ¿Quiénes son las promesas del sector de gestión de activos en Europa?

Los 25 hombres y mujeres menores de 40 años que destacan en la industria de gestión de activos en Europa, según Financial News, incluyen una lista de «individuos talentosos que también son administradores de activos, consultores, estrategas y especialistas en relaciones con clientes que tienen la oportunidad de cambiar la forma en que la industria genera y distribuye la riqueza en los años venideros».

Los ganadores del premio de este año fueron votados por un panel de editores de Financial News y jueces de la industria que evaluaron a los participantes en cuatro criterios: criterios de inversión, fortaleza, nuevos desarrollos y «mejores que el resto», y son:

Maya Bhandari, portfolio manager, multi-asset, de Columbia Threadneedle Investments (38)
Olivier Blin, líder de systematic strategies en Unigestion (36)
Emma Cameron, socio y consultor en Hymans Robertson (37)
Gunjan Chauhan, líder deestrategias en efectivo EMEA en State Street Global Advisors (35)
Joanna Crompton, portfolio manager en JPMorgan Asset Management (33)
Daniel Danon y Tobias Knecht, portfolio managers en Assenagon (35)
Gaetan Delculee, líder global de ETFs y ventas de smart beta en Amundi (32)
Louise Dudley, portfolio manager en Hermes Investment Management (32)
Dana Harlan, estratega en BlackRock (32)
Joubeen Hurren, portfolio manager en Aviva Investors (28)
Christopher Inman, líder de UK DC investment advisory en Aon Hewitt (34)
Amy Jupe, director ejecutivo de inversiones alternativas en Goldman Sachs Asset Management (34)
Wesley Lebeau, portfolio manager en CPR Asset Management (35)
Howie Li, director general en Canvas — parte de ETF Securities — (34)
Garvan McCarthy, director de inversiones alternativas para Europa en Mercer (35)
Tom Morris, fund manager en Majedie Asset Management (30)
Joseph Mouawad, analista de mercados emergentes en Carmignac (33)
Andrew Mulliner, portfolio manager en Janus Henderson Investors (34)
Henning Potstada, portfolio manager y líder del equipo de multi-asset total return en Deutsche Asset Management (37)
Jean Sayegh, líder de renta fija en Lyxor Asset Management (35)
Simon Smiles, director de inversiones para UHNW en UBS Wealth Management (39)
Nicolas Trindade, senior portfolio manager en AXA Investment Management (34)
Felipe Villarroel, portfolio manager en TwentyFour Asset Management (33)
Naomi Waistell, portfolio manager en Newton Investment Management (32)
Matthew Yeates, quantitative investment manager en Seven Investment Management (27)

Según la publicación, «los elegidos de este año reflejan los esfuerzos de sus empresas para producir un buen desempeño con el fin de atraer inversionistas y aumentar los activos durante un período de bajos rendimientos y bajas tasas de interés».

Consejo General de Economistas: no se aprecian ni a corto ni a largo plazo tensiones inflacionistas en España

| Por Alicia Miguel | 0 Comentarios

A pesar de que la normalización monetaria ya está en marcha al otro lado del Atlántico, en Europa tendrá que esperar aún. El Observatorio del Consejo General de Economistas, que ha publicado un balance del segundo trimestre del año y previsiones futuras, no ve tensiones inflacionistas en España, ni a corto ni a largo plazo. Porque en Europa esas tensiones son más suaves que en EE.UU.

“Los datos del INE publicados en los últimos días avalan nuestras previsiones. En el segundo trimestre la economía ha crecido un 0,9%, una décima más que el crecimiento del trimestre anterior, lo que supone que en la tasa anual está creciendo al 3,1 % de acuerdo con las previsiones que adelantamos en julio. El consumo es una de las causas de este buen comportamiento, habiéndose recuperado de la languidez con que comenzara el año. En concreto, de abril a junio ha aumentado hasta el 0,7%, tres décimas más que trimestre anterior, por la demanda interna que ha aportado 2,4 puntos porcentuales al PIB, una décima por encima del trimestre anterior”, explican desde el Observatorio.

“Por su parte, el gasto de las Administraciones Públicas se ha incrementado en ocho décimas respecto al primer trimestre, creciendo a un ritmo anual del 1,3%. La inversión ha moderado su crecimiento, a un ritmo del 3,4%, cinco décimas menos que el anterior trimestre. Sin embargo, la construcción ha crecido un 3%, una décima más que en su anterior registro. El sector exterior repite su comportamiento contribuyendo con 0,7 puntos al PIB, aunque reduce su ritmo de crecimiento tanto en exportaciones como en importaciones. El empleo ha registrado un incremento del 0,9% en el trimestre, dos décimas por encima del trimestre anterior”.

En su opinión, en adelante se mantendrá este ritmo de crecimiento, el empleo seguirá contribuyendo a la demanda interna, vital en un momento en el que el cambio del euro se vuelve en contra de las exportaciones, así como el diferencial de inflación con Europa.

“No se aprecian ni a corto ni a largo plazo tensiones inflacionistas, por lo que prevemos una moderación en el crecimiento de la inflación, que ajustamos a la baja respecto a la previsión de julio”, añaden.

Como aspectos positivos, cabe destacar que siguen sin notarse los efectos negativos anunciados por el Brexit; se espera un año turístico récord en número y en gasto por turista; la vivienda sigue recuperándose, y la construcción comienza a resurgir tras una década paralizada.

“Con todo ello para que, sin contratiempos, se puedan consolidar estas cifras e incluso podamos incrementar nuestras previsiones para el año en los próximos meses de continuar la tendencia que se manifiesta muy firme”, añaden desde el Observatorio.

Spend Your Time Wisely

| Por Gabriela Huerta | 0 Comentarios

Both professional fund investors and asset managers are wasting valuable time in fund due diligence. The processes fund investors use to collect, and asset managers use to provide, due diligence information on funds are outdated and long due an upgrade.

Fund investors would like to spend less time gathering and organising information and more time performing analysis. Asset managers have similar inefficiencies. They are spending too much time repetitively ‘cutting and pasting’ the same content to respond to similar fund investor requests. Asset managers want to provide high quality information, faster responses, greater transparency – and highlight the strengths of their offering.

At Door, we are reimagining the future of fund due diligence. Bringing asset managers and professional fund investors together, we have collaborated on a new industry-led platform – a digital solution to streamline the due diligence process and drive value to all participants.

Door is solving a common problem

The challenge for fund investors is that fund information is not always provided by managers quickly and in consistent and easily comparable formats. While DDQs are a primary source of critical information for undertaking fund research and ongoing monitoring, current industry practice involves exchanging Word or Excel documents over email. The process is slow and archaic. Changes to information through time are not easily captured or understood.

Today, we know professional fund investors are spending as much as two thirds of their time gathering and organising basic due diligence information on funds and only one third on analysis and decision-making. Door aims to put better, more efficient tools into the hands of fund investors and to make responding to information requests more it more efficient for asset managers to respond to information requests.

Receiving fund information quickly and in an easily comparable format is key. Door is making this possible. We have brought together principles of standardisation and digitisation. This combination creates far-reaching benefits for professional fund investors and asset management companies alike.

Creating industry best practice

There is a high level of overlap between the questions asked by professional investors in their DDQs. While differing in shape and size, the vast majority of questions asked by investors intend to elicit similar responses from asset managers. Our research shows that over 90% of all the questions asked by investors of asset managers’ products around the world are common!

Standardisation has played an important role in the development of many modern advancements. It provides the basis for consistency in measurement and technical development.

The benefits of applying best practice standards to the questionnaire process were recognized first by the professional fund investor community – within the membership of the Association of Professional Fund Investors (APFI). Door has worked alongside APFI to deliver an independent and industry-led solution that continues to evolve with the changing investment environment and due diligence requirements: The Standard Questionnaire.

The Standard Questionnaire was built through an intensive 12-month collaboration that explored a wide array of questionnaires, RFPs, RFIs and DDQs from around the world and across many categories of investors. Dozens of participants, including leading global fund investors and asset management firms, provided input and feedback. 500 hours of research, analysis and collaboration went into the development of The Standard Questionnaire. With the support of the firms collaborating on Door, The Standard Questionnaire is fast becoming the new industry best practice. Asset managers’ responses to The Standard Questionnaire are designed to sit at the ‘core’ of a fund investor’s due diligence information gathering process. One of the key benefits of The Standard Questionnaire is that asset managers can better understand the information requirements of their clients. The questions are clear and easily understood. The quality of responses and the level of transparency improves.

Fund selectors point out that it takes far too long to receive responses to information requests: a turnaround time of three to five weeks. Asset managers are challenged with an ever-growing backlog of requests. Door enables asset managers to provide access to The Standard Questionnaire for their funds to fund investors on a real-time basis and investors are alerted to the most recent changes to information.

Fund selectors also struggle with the level of quality and depth of responses to questions asked. Because volumes are so high and asset managers receive many similarly worded questions, they often simply ‘cut/paste’ ready made responses. In many cases, these responses are a good fit for a question posed but too often, similar sounding questions don’t receive adequate attention. With a wider breadth of questions being asked, the depth and quality of responses suffer.

Tools for Humans

We believe that fund due diligence is a vital function. We believe that humans, not robots, are best equipped to make investment decisions on funds. In depth analysis and ongoing reviews of both robust qualitative and quantitative information is crucial. As both funds and asset management firms are ultimately managed by people, we think it takes solid human judgment and decision-making to invest in them. To make decisions, fund investors must have robust, up to date, easily comparable information. Changes to information need to be communicated more quickly.

Door’s aims are simple. We want to improve the due diligence information gathering process. We want professional fund investors to be able to apply their analysis to easily comparable, deep fund information. We want faster and more democratic communication of changes to information.

We want to give back the time to both fund investors and asset managers to focus on value.

About Door collaborators

Collaboration and mutual understanding are key facets of Door’s success. As Co-Founders of Door, we have brought together complementary, hands-on experience from both sides of the due diligence process.

The industry has been seeking innovation. So, Door brought the innovators together. The firms helping our drive for change include All Funds, Santander, Mediolanum, Pictet Wealth and EFG. Asset managers include Franklin Templeton, Columbia Threadneedle, Schroders, Aberdeen Asset Management, Robeco, M&G, Artisan Partners, Aviva Investors, Pictet Asset Management and Nordea Asset Management. Door is now working with 20 cross-border asset managers and over 50 fund investor firms. The number grows daily.

If you would like to join our community, please visit www.doorfunds.com

Column by Door

VONTOBEL

| Por Fórmate a Fondo | 0 Comentarios

Vontobel Asset Management es una gestora de activos con alcance global. Desde nuestra fundación en 1988, hemos aplicado un enfoque multi-boutique. Hoy en día ofrecemos estrategias que invierten en Renta Variable, Renta Fija, Multi Asset Class y Alternativo.

Como gestora activa, invertimos de conformidad con nuestras convicciones. Esto significa que no basamos nuestras decisiones de inversión en la opinión del mercado ni en los índices de referencia. Nuestro objetivo consiste en crear un valor añadido (o «alpha») para nuestros inversores. Gracias a que nuestros equipos de gestión de carteras son pequeños y especializados, podemos tomar decisiones flexibles y rápidas. La calidad es el núcleo de nuestro servicio y nuestra misión radica en proteger y aumentar el patrimonio que nuestros clientes nos han confiado. Gracias a nuestro sobresaliente historial, somos desde hace décadas una de las principales gestoras independientes de activos de Suiza, para clientes institucionales y privados.

Vontobel Asset Management se compone de seis boutiques de inversión: Quality Growth Equities, Global Thematic Equities Multi Asset Class Investing, Fixed Income, TwentyFour y Alternatives. Más de 300 empleados en todo el mundo (incluidos cerca de 100 especialistas de inversión) trabajan para Vontobel Asset Management en más de una docena de ubicaciones internacionales.

¿Es todavía un buen momento para entrar en renta variable asiática?

| Por Fórmate a Fondo | 0 Comentarios

OMGI: You Missed the Rally… Is it Still a Good Time to Invest in Asian Equities? — Foto cedidaFoto: Josh Crabb, responsable de renta variable asiática para Old Mutual Global Investors. ¿Es todavía un buen momento para entrar en renta variable asiática?

El mercado de renta variable asiática sigue al alza, superando en más del 50% los mínimos que tocó en 2016. En lo que va de año, el índice MSCI Asia Pacific Ex Japan supera al S&P 500 en más de un 21%, mientras que el renminbi se apreció un 6% con respecto al dólar, ¿es todavía un buen momento para entrar en esta clase de activo si se perdió el rally? Josh Crabb, responsable de renta variable asiática de Old Mutual Global Investors, opina que sí.

Durante la celebración del OMGI Global Markets Forum en Boston, el principal gestor de los fondos Old Mutual Asian Equity Income y Old Mutual Pacific Equity revisó las posibles amenazas que acechan a esta clase de activo, sus valoraciones y la probabilidad de obtener rendimientos positivos en los siguientes 12 meses, junto con los temas que son los principales generadores de alfa en sus carteras.

¿Qué debe preocupar al inversor de renta variable asiática?

En las últimas semanas, el incremento de las tensiones entre Estados Unidos y Corea del Norte ha creado mucho ruido en los mercados. Según Crabb, no debe ser algo que preocupe demasiado a los inversores, pues estima un 99% de probabilidad de que no suceda nada y tan sólo un 1% de que ocurra algo verdaderamente malo que conlleve una bajada del 100% en los mercados. Multiplicando probabilidades, esto sólo representa un impacto del 1% en los mercados.

“Si miramos atrás en la historia y repasamos eventos mucho más extremos, como fue la crisis de los misiles en Cuba, con dos potencias mucho más equipadas y un posible resultado final mucho peor, podremos ver que el mercado tan solo se movió entre un 3% y un 4%. Si como inversores estamos genuinamente preocupados por esta cuestión y sin que este comentario represente asesoramiento, la solución sería comprar opciones put sobre el índice Kospi (Korea Stock Exchange Index), que se encuentren “out of the money” y cuya fecha de expiración esté lejos en el tiempo, esta estrategia pagará mejor que dejar algo de efectivo extra en la cartera”.

El espectacular rally que ha experimentado esta clase de activo desde el año pasado hasta la fecha ha hecho pensar a algunos inversores que llegan tarde a la fiesta, pero todavía es un buen momento para entrar si se tienen en cuenta las valoraciones en términos del múltiplo precio-valor contable: “Si los inversores hubieran entrado a comprar en febrero de 2016, cuando el múltiplo precio-contable se situaba en 1,2 veces, hubieran obtenido con un 100% de probabilidad un rendimiento positivo en los siguiente 12 meses, según indican los datos históricos de esta clase de activo en los últimos 20 años. En la actualidad, el mercado se sitúa en unos múltiplos de 1,7 veces, algo alejado de los mínimos, pero todavía con una perspectiva muy favorable, con una probabilidad obtener retornos positivos cercana al 70% – 80%. En estos momentos es una de las clases de activo más barata y sigue siendo un buen momento para invertir, con una buena probabilidad de generar ganancias”.

Otra frecuente preocupación, es cómo reaccionará la renta variable asiática a las potenciales subidas de tipos de interés por parte de la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos. El escenario base que muchos inversores anticipan es que, si hay una nueva subida de tasas debido al aumento de las presiones inflacionarias, el dólar se apreciará, repercutiendo negativamente en el precio de las materias primas, en los mercados emergentes y en particular en Asia. Algo que según Crabb, no debe necesariamente ocurrir. Para explicar su visión, el gestor de Old Mutual se remonta al periodo comprendido entre de 2003 y 2007 para contrastar el comportamiento del dólar, medido por el índice DXY (US Dollar Index), y la renta variable asiática ante un ciclo restrictivo por parte de la Fed: “Mientras el mercado americano se recuperaba de la burbuja tecnológica, los múltiplos del mercado asiático se encontraban en niveles baratos por varias causas: las medidas de relajamiento cualitativo en Tailandia, los ataques terroristas a discotecas en Indonesia, la enfermedad del SARS, los precios de los bienes inmobiliarios en Hong Kong estaban a la mitad de su valor actual y la economía era débil. Cuando la Reserva Federal comenzó subir tipos, el dólar comenzó a apreciarse en un primer momento para después depreciarse, pero el mercado de renta variable continúo al alza durante todo el ciclo. No es hasta que la Reserva Federal comienza a bajar tipos que el índice MSCI Asia ex Japan comienza a caer. Si regresamos al ciclo actual y repasamos lo sucedido hasta ahora, podemos ver que el dólar comenzó su rally en anticipación a la subida de tipos de la Fed y la renta variable asiática comenzó a obtener mejores rendimientos. El dólar ya ha comenzado a depreciarse, pero los mercados asiáticos continúan al alza”.

Crabb también defiende que, ahora que las condiciones globales actuales parecen mejorar, con China y Europa ofreciendo unas atractivas valoraciones y una mayor fortaleza económica, los inversores comenzarán a asignar unos mayores recursos a estas clases de activos.

¿Cuál es el enfoque correcto para posicionarse en la renta variable asiática?

Cuando los inversores piensan en la siguiente crisis económica, se remontan a la crisis de 2009. Aunque según apunta Josh Crabb, muy probablemente la próxima crisis se parezca más a la crisis del año 2000, en la que a pesar de que el índice S&P 500 bajó bastante, muchos valores subieron en términos absolutos. De esta manera, el gestor busca exposición a empresas que esperan que tengan un gran crecimiento porque su mercado va a tener un gran crecimiento. En la actualidad, son cinco las tendencias que el gestor está considerando como los principales factores generadores de alfa de la cartera: la inversión en infraestructura en India, los mercados frontera, la polución en China, el internet de las cosas (IOT) y la inteligencia artificial (AI).

Comenzando por las compañías vinculadas con el internet de las cosas y la inteligencia artificial, Crabb destaca la irrupción en los hogares de nuevos productos que representarán una revolución en la misma escala que en su día representó el teléfono móvil. “La mayoría de los presentes habréis oído hablar de Amazon Echo y Google Home. La semana anterior estuve en Europa y básicamente nadie conocía estos productos, ni el hecho de que Microsoft, Alibaba, Samsung y un buen número de empresas se encuentran en el proceso de lanzar sus propias versiones de estos productos que cambiarán de forma completa el modo en el que la gente interactúa. Estos aparatos permiten conectar cada electrodoméstico que haya en la casa utilizando la voz como comando. Esto va a llevar a un ciclo de proliferación de productos masivo del que nos podremos beneficiar participando en empresas de un tamaño relativamente pequeño en cuestión de capitalización bursátil hoy en día”.

Como ejemplo, el gestor menciona Primax Electronics, una empresa tailandesa que se especializa en la fabricación de micrófonos que es capaz de identificar voces, utilizados en por Google home y Amazon Echo. Mientras que la valoración de la empresa medida en término de PER se sitúa cerca de las 10,5 veces, la de Alibaba se sitúa alrededor de las 50 veces. “Si pensamos en que este producto todavía no ha llegado a América Latina, Asia o Europa y en cuánta gente lo tendrá en un corto periodo de tiempo es una fantástica oportunidad. Además, esta tecnología se integrará en las televisiones, en los sistemas de luz, en los timbres de las casas y los aspersores. Este pensamiento se puede extender a los fabricantes de sensores, lentes de cámaras y demás productos cuyas empresas muestran unas valoraciones baratas y un crecimiento potencial masivo”.

Por último, Crabb menciona el tema de la polución en China, señalando que aquellas empresas altamente contaminantes, como las productoras de acero que no están cumpliendo con la regulación en materia de medio ambiente o con el pago de sus impuestos tendrán que cerrar en un futuro no muy lejando, derivando su producción a las empresas que si están cumpliendo. “La población en China ha alcanzado un nivel socioeconómico suficientemente elevado como para comenzar a preocuparse por la polución. Es por ello que deja de tener prioridad la creación de puestos de empleos y se comienza a dar más importancia a las empresas productoras de acero que respetan las normas, que crean estándares de calidad y que en un futuro ganarán el volumen extra que pierdan las empresas que incumplen”.

MFS Investment Management: “No podemos enfatizar más el hecho de que somos gestores activos”

| Por Fórmate a Fondo | 0 Comentarios

MFS Investment Management: “We Cannot Emphasize Enough the Fact that We Are Active Managers” — Foto cedidaFoto: Lina Medeiros, presidenta de MFS International Limited / Foto cedida. MFS Investment Management: “No podemos enfatizar más el hecho de que somos gestores activos”

MFS Investment Management celebró, del 28 al 29 de septiembre en Londres, el 2017 European Investment Forum, un evento dedicado transmitir la cultura y filosofía de inversión de la gestora internacional con sede en Boston, así como a ofrecer sus perspectivas sobre los desafíos a los que se enfrentan los clientes. A través de distintas ponencias, los equipos de inversión de la firma también presentaron las perspectivas para sus estrategias de renta fija, renta variable y multiactivos.

Michael Roberge, CEO, presidente y CIO de MFS, repasó los principales atributos diferenciadores de MFS y William J. Adams, CIO de Renta Fija Global, presentó a los clientes las capacidades de la firma en esa clase de activo. A continuación, los asistentes pudieron entrevistarse con los gestores de los fondos MFS Meridian Funds, que compartieron los objetivos de inversión, principales características, posicionamiento actual y perspectivas futuras de cada una de las clases de activos en las que invierten. En concreto, al evento acudieron Pilar Gómez-Bravo, gestora del MFS Meridian Funds Global Opportunistic Bond Fund, Robert M. Hall, gestor institucional del MFS Meridian Funds Emerging Markets Debt Fund, Robert Persons, gestor del MFS Meridian Funds U.S. Corporate Bond Fund, Katrina Mead, gestora institucional del fondo multiactivo MFS Meridian Funds Global Total Return Fund, y Barnaby Wiener, gestor de los fondos MFS Meridian Funds Prudent Capital Fund y Prudent Wealth Fund.

Una gestora activa

Lina Medeiros, presidenta de MFS International Limited, recibió a los asistentes, procedentes de Alemania, España, Italia, Suiza, Francia, Portugal y Reino Unido. Durante su presentación, recordó a los presentes que MFS continúa buscando oportunidades de inversión para sus clientes alrededor del mundo. “Hoy en día somos uno de los principales gestores activos cualificados, que nos centramos en lo que es importante -los fundamentales de una compañía- para proporcionar los rendimientos que los clientes esperan de nosotros. Este enfoque resulta en carteras con una baja rotación y un alto active share”.

Para MFS, el hecho de tener una plataforma integrada global de research, en la que las ideas se desarrollan y son escuchadas, se traduce en unos mejores rendimientos. Mientras que los rendimientos obtenidos periodos de 3 y 5 años son destacables, MFS entrega mejores rendimientos en el largo plazo, según apunta Medeiros. “Para un periodo de 10 años con cierre a 31 de julio de 2017, el 93% de los activos de los MFS Meridian Funds se encuentran en la primera mitad de sus respectivas categorías de Morningstar. Además, aproximadamente el 70% de estos fondos se sitúa en el primer cuartil. Y estas cifras son alcanzadas no solo porque llevamos en este negocio desde 1924, sino porque hemos tomado una perspectiva en el largo plazo en nuestra manera de invertir en dinero, tenemos un enfoque disciplinado de inversión y un proceso de inversión repetible”

Medeiros destacó la importancia que tiene para MFS demostrar su cultura y valores a través de las distintas presentaciones de los gestores. “Tratamos a nuestros clientes de una forma honesta, con la mayor transparencia posible en relación a nuestro enfoque, nuestros productos y nuestra gente. Somos una empresa fundada en el trabajo en equipo y en la colaboración, algo que nos lleva a tomar mejores decisiones. No nos conformamos, ni somos complacientes con los logros conseguidos, tenemos que estar continuamente esforzándonos por conseguir unos altos estándares, especialmente en la industria dinámica en la que vivimos y en un mundo cada vez más complejo donde la curiosidad intelectual es vital. Todo cambia tan rápido que sin esta curiosidad intelectual es fácil quedarse atrás”.

Para MFS, es fundamental hacer lo correcto para sus clientes, empleados y comunidades. Toman su responsabilidad muy seriamente, pues es vital gestionar el patrimonio sus clientes de una forma prudente. “Vivimos apasionados por el servicio al cliente y por la cultura de MFS. Nos gusta lo que hacemos y creemos en lo que hacemos. Son precisamente nuestros valores los que nos han ayudado a crear un negocio sostenible y diversificado”.

Con más de 400.000 millones de euros en activos bajo gestión a cierre del segundo trimestre de 2017, MFS diversifica su base de cliente entre clientes retail e institucionales a nivel global, algo que ayuda a ganar eficiencia en escala en los principales mercados alrededor del mundo. A nivel de clase de activos, también han desarrollado una profunda experiencia en todas las áreas de inversión en renta variable, renta fija y multiactivos.

¿Qué es lo que preocupa al cliente?

Con el objetivo de conocer más a fondo las inquietudes de inversores institucionales, asesores financieros y compradores profesionales de fondos, MFS encargó un estudio en el que buscaba conocer el sentimiento de los inversores. Medeiros también hizo referencia a un estudio independiente que persigue desvelar los factores que motivan las decisiones de inversión de los clientes.

Para los profesionales encuestados en el 2016 MFS Active Management Investment Sentiment Study -500 asesores financieros, 220 inversores institucionales y 125 compradores profesionales- la primera preocupación es una fuerte caída en los mercados. Seguida, con un margen muy ajustado, de la inestabilidad geopolítica global. Mientras que para los asesores financieros retail (1.628) y los compradores de fondos profesionales (670) encuestados en el 2016 NMG Global Investment & Brand Study, estudio citado por MFS durante el evento, el rendimiento a largo plazo fue el factor más decisivo, seguido de la consistencia y calidad del proceso de inversión. “Los inversores están preocupados tanto por cómo se obtienen los resultados, cómo por los propios resultados”, añadió Medeiros.

Las señales que envía el mercado

Existen numerosas fuerzas que están cambiando la cadena de valor en todos los aspectos de la industria de servicios financieros. Las empresas están cambiando sus modelos de negocio para poder enfrentarse a los retos actuales. Según MFS, frente a todos los factores que están desafiando a la industria -la retirada de las tendencias globalizadoras, el avance de la inversión pasiva y el aumento del escrutinio regulatorio- es imperativo tener convicción en lo que hacen y en cómo lo hacen. “En ocasiones los clientes nos preguntan porque no ofrecemos un determinado producto u otro, pero resulta que, si realmente algo es bueno para el cliente en el largo plazo, en una estrategia en la que pensamos que podemos añadir alfa, lo desarrollaremos y lo ofreceremos al cliente. Pero si se trata de una moda pasajera, muy probablemente no será ofrecido por nosotros. No podemos enfatizar más el hecho de que somos gestores activos. Ahora más que nunca, cuando la marea de la inversión pasiva ha elevado todos los mercados, es importante que mantengamos nuestro curso”.

Cómo invertir en fondos afiliados a no uno, sino a dos ganadores del Premio Nobel de Economía

| Por Gabriela Huerta | 0 Comentarios

How to Invest in Funds Affiliated with Not One But Two Nobel Prize in Economics Winners — Foto cedidaDaniel Kahneman y Richard Thaler en la 20ava convención APS . Cómo invertir en fondos afiliados a no uno, sino a dos ganadores del Premio Nobel de Economía

Richard H. Thaler recibió el Premio 2017 Sveriges Riksbank en Ciencias Económicas en Memoria de Alfred Nobel. En 2002, el receptor fue Daniel Kahneman. Ambos están asociados con Fuller & Thaler Asset Management. Fundada en 1993, la compañía ha sido pionera en la aplicación de las finanzas del comportamiento para la gestión de inversiones aprovechando las reacciones exageradas en el mercado de valores.

La firma se enfoca en acciones de pequeña capitalización de los Estados Unidos, y ofrece estrategias personalizadas así como dos fondos mutuos, y cuentas segregadas. Actualmente, cuentan con tres fondos que invierten en acciones small caps estadounidenses. Uno es el Undiscovered Managers Behavioural Value Fund (UBVLX). Considerado value, es un subadvisory para JPMorgan Distribution Services. De los otros dos, que serían considerados blend, uno está disponible exclusivamente para planes de pensiones de los Estados Unidos y el otro es el Fuller & Thaler Behavioral Small-Cap Equity Fund (FTHSX). Benjamin Johnson, director asociado de la firma, comentó a Funds Society, que están abiertos a nuevas oportunidades con family offices de América Latina.

Según la Real Academia de las Ciencias de Suecia, «las contribuciones de Thaler han construido un puente entre los análisis económicos y psicológicos de la toma de decisiones individuales. Sus hallazgos empíricos y conocimientos teóricos han sido decisivos en la creación de la nueva y creciente área de la economía conductual, que ha tenido un impacto profundo en muchas de las áreas de la investigación y políticas económicas».

Thaler ha escrito seis libros y varios artículos. También realizó un cameo en la película de 2015 The Big Short, basada en el libro de Michael Lewis, explicando a Selena Gomez qué es la “falacia de la buena racha”, para ayudar a revelar cómo se dio lugar a una parte clave de la crisis financiera.