Investec AM Gets Back to Their Roots and Celebrates its Annual Investment Conference in Cape Town

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In Cape Town, where Investec Asset Management story began 27 years ago, the international asset management firm with South African origins hosted the 11th Investec Global Insights conference and brought together 220 delegates from eleven countries around the world.

Richard Garland, Managing Director of the Global Advisor division, welcomed the attendees explaining what are the key elements that make Investec Asset Management a unique asset management firm. According to Garland, being a global asset management firm with emerging market roots differentiates the firm apart from competitors.

“The most important thing is where did we come from. There are many asset managers who start in London, New York, Boston or Los Angeles, but neither came out of the future. And, why do I say the future? It is because Africa is the future. We learned how to run money in the most difficult continent in the world for running money, and then we went global. We grew out of South Africa, an emerging market, to become a global asset manager”.         

Some other characteristics that Garland believes differentiate Investec AM from competitors are: stability and continuity, multiple alignments of interests, a multi-specialist framework and culture.

“Over the years, we still have the same sales people and the same fund managers. This is core to who we are. The top 50 to 60 people at Investec Asset Management own equity from the company, our interests are aligned with the client interests. We work with a multi-specialist frame, we do not have only one investment style, we do not have only one investment team or philosophy. We have different ways of running money, which means we always have investment strategies or funds which will work for your clients in any environment.” 

A top-level view: Interview with Hendrik du Toit

Following his introduction to the firm, Richard Garland interviewed Hendrik du Toit, Joint-CEO of Investec Group. Hendrik was one of the founders of the company in 1991, 27 years ago in Cape Town, where Investec AM was a small start-up asset manager offering domestic strategies in an emerging market.

From the early days, Hendrik remembered some chaos. But the firm was able to build up a mid-caps strategy and buy their growth in the next decade. They were able to build a track record based on multiple expansion, something that allowed them to reach new clients.  

Du Toit stated that being a mid-size asset manager firm can be an advantage to compete against the large-scale asset managers. “This is an industry in which size is one of the components of strength and not necessarily the defining. It is about quality and excellence, it is not about size. In the banking industry balance sheet matters, it is an important source of strength. But in the asset management industry, you only need to be big and strong enough to deal with the regulatory barriers. When asset management firms become bigger, they lose control on what is going on in the business and only worry about the politics on the board room.” 

When asked about entering the passive management business, Du Toit specified that there are only going to be two, or three at the most, serious global passive managers. “If you are in a race where prices tend to zero, only one or two scale players can live with one or two basis points. BlackRock and Vanguard, the discount players that make real money in the passive investment business, have a huge active business. ETFs have brilliantly market themselves as a passive investment and they tell the world they are cheap, when they are rather expensive. The managers make money out security trading and the commission fee and sell the illusion of a 100% liquidity when you are actually investing on very long duration assets. ETFs are a useful tool for all, we use them in our multi-asset portfolios, but they are not a competitor. In the end there are certain risks that provide the returns the clients need in a low yield world. You need to allocate your money where the winners are, otherwise you are going to stay with the losers. The promise of active is not that we are going to always outperform some index, which are difficult to beat. Instead, the promise of active is that we are going to allocate capital sensibly and try to capture the huge opportunities that the 4th revolution is bringing to capital markets.” 

According to Hendrik, there are massive investment opportunities in China’s growth, in the renewable energy transition and in the food industry; and you need to be an active manager to capture them.  

Demerger of Investec Group and listing of Investec AM

In September, Investec Asset Management announced that the firm will become a separately listed entity. After the separation of Investec AM from the remaining Investec Group, Hendrik du Toit will lead the new listed entity as Executive Chairman.

“Investec’s banking and wealth group are largely based in two countries: South Africa and UK. Whereas most of the growth of the asset management business comes from the Americas, Asia, Western Europe and the whole continent of Africa. Geographically, we are thinking differently. Also, client niches were totally different, we do not have direct clients as the banking and the wealth group do, we work with intermediaries. We focus on our client’s relationships and that turns into long-run revenue and profit growth,” stated du Toit.

“The strategy is going to remain the same. We are going to help clients who want to take active risks to achieve the returns over and above target benchmarks in chosen markets with our skillsets. All our portfolio managers have different but complementary skillsets. There is an addressable market of 25 to 30 trillion dollars and we would like to keep growing on our current shape. We will obviously add some private market illiquid asset offer or any other business that is active and difficult to do.”  

Sustainability

Concluding the interview, du Toit mentioned the importance of considering environmental, social and sustainability criteria when investing. “I grew up in Africa and I have seen what climate change can do to communities. I have seen what overfishing, deforestation, and polluted rivers can do to places. It is not debatable that 7 billion humans have an excessive impact on this world. We also know that we have to combine development and job creation with protection of the natural resources of our world. We are long-term investors. We are supposed to invest for the next generation and the generation after. We must think about the consequences of our capital allocation. We are fortunate to be the stewards of capital and we have a long-term liability to choose where to allocate the capital. Companies will be sued and will go bankrupt for environmental liabilities”.  

Aberdeen Standard Investments

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ABRDN_0
. Aberdeen Standard Investments

Aberdeen Standard Investments es un gestor de activos global líder dedicado a crear valor a largo plazo, y una marca de los negocios de inversión de Aberdeen Asset Management y Standard Life Investments.

Con más de 1.000 profesionales de la inversión, administra 778.800 millones de dólares* de activos en todo el mundo. Con clientes en 80 países, cuentan con el apoyo de 46 oficinas de relaciones. Esto garantiza la cercanía con sus clientes y con los mercados en los que invierten.

Aberdeen Standard Investments es el negocio de gestión de activos de Standard Life Aberdeen plc, una de las compañías de inversión más grandes del mundo.

Standard Life Aberdeen plc tiene su sede en Escocia. Tiene alrededor de 1,2 millones de accionistas y cotiza en la Bolsa de Valores de Londres. El grupo Standard Life Aberdeen se formó mediante la fusión de Standard Life plc y Aberdeen Asset Management PLC el 14 de agosto de 2017.

* al 31 de diciembre de 2017, tasa de £ / US $ 1.164.

www.aberdeenstandard.com

John Dickie: “Los inversores se están dando cuenta de que al mantenerse en los mercados públicos se están limitando»

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John Dickie: “Investors are Realizing that by Sticking to the Public Markets they are Limiting Themselves”
John Dickie, foto cedida. John Dickie: “Los inversores se están dando cuenta de que al mantenerse en los mercados públicos se están limitando"

Casi cuatro de cada cinco inversionistas institucionales están asignando capital a activos alternativos y, según muestran los datos de Preqin, el private equity representa una gran parte de esos activos. John Dickie, co-director de private equity estadounidense en Aberdeen Standard Investments, platica con Funds Society sobre sus perspectivas en la segunda mitad de 2018 y el siguiente año.

De acuerdo con Dickie, este es un buen momento para recaudar fondos, y existe un gran interés a nivel mundial en el private equity, ya que hasta ahora, esta clase de activo ha tenido un buen desempeño y ha seguido superando a los mercados públicos. John también señala que los inversionistas aprecian cada vez más que hay cientos de miles de empresas privadas en los Estados Unidos, mientras que, hay menos de 4.000 empresas públicas en los Estados Unidos, por lo que «los inversores se están dando cuenta de que al mantenerse en los mercados públicos se están limitando a una porción muy pequeña del universo total invertible».

Sin embargo, cree que «los GPs deben tener una ventaja para captar la atención de LPs». A un alto nivel, él ve un gran interés en el mercado de mediana capitalización, «dado que los retornos en esa parte del mercado han sido mejores» que los de los fondos más grandes.

Cuando analizan invertir con un GP, John y su equipo en Aberdeen Standard Investments se enfocan en dos áreas principales:

  • Cuantitativamente, deben creer fundamentalmente que el equipo del GP son buenos inversionistas y tienen un gran historial de mejoras operativas de las empresas en las que invierten. También analizan cómo encuentran y obtienen las posibles inversiones.
  • Cualitativamente, «buscamos personas en las que confiamos y valoramos como socios, que valoran nuestros aportes y que están construyendo grandes firmas culturalmente, con capas multigeneracionales y con una economía compartida de manera apropiada».

La co-inversión está aquí para quedarse

John cree que la inversión conjunta es una herramienta importante para que los LP mejoren los rendimientos y minimicen, o incluso eliminen, las curvas J. Sin embargo, observa que hay muchas empresas que han sido imprudentes con la inversión conjunta. «Entonces, cuando venga la próxima recesión, muchos LP no estarán contentos», menciona añadiendo que «en Aberdeen Standard Investments, la firma ha creado un equipo con profesionales que tienen experiencia en GP, lo que nos permite mantenernos al día con las actividades de due diligence de los GP y profundizar en las empresas».

¿Cómo se verá el mercado?

Según John, seguiremos viendo cómo las grandes empresas se hacen más grandes, pero también habrá más empresas pequeñas. «Las empresas más grandes seguirán atrayendo capital de todo el mundo y seguirán creciendo, pero una serie de empresas del mercado medio continuarán teniendo escisiones», dijo, y agregó que «estamos observando una gran cantidad de spin offs y fondos de primera vez. Muchos LP respaldarán los fondos de primera vez, pero NO los inversores de primera vez», aclara.

La razón por la que cree que los fondos de private equity nuevos son atractivos es que «puedes asignar capital a un equipo de personas altamente capacitadas de una organización muy respetada que, en muchos casos, tienen 10-15, a veces 20 años de experiencia en private equity, pero ahora están haciendo las cosas para ellos. La pasión de tener su propia firma con sus socios más cercanos conduce a una alineación de incentivos increíble, donde estos equipos están ansiosos por tener éxito y tener un fondo exitoso. Creemos que puede ser una dinámica bastante interesante», concluye.

Club Expats Challenge: no usar bolsas de plástico en noviembre

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Club Expats Challenge: No Plastic Bags in November
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrFoto: MichaelisScientists. Club Expats Challenge: no usar bolsas de plástico en noviembre

Club Expats, el servicio que muchos de nuestros amigos y colegas en la industria de gestión de activos han utilizado al llegar a Miami dice: «Ayúdenos a reducir la cantidad de bolsas de plástico que terminan en el océano».

Rebeca Calvet, fundadora del Club Expats en Miami tiene un gran desafío para nosotros que puede ayudar a reducir la basura en nuestras playas … y al mismo tiempo crear conciencia sobre este problema y juntar dinero para The Seed School of Miami. Ella está proponiendo hacer de noviembre un mes sin bolsas de plástico.

Al unirse a este desafío, te comprometes a donar un dólar a The Seed School of Miami por cada bolsa de plástico que uses. Hice una prueba y, teniendo mucho cuidado, mi familia usó 22 bolsas de plástico en una semana promedio. En un mes, esto representaría 88 dólares para The Seed School of Miami, cuanto menos plástico utilicemos, mejor será para el medio ambiente. Si no logramos reducir nuestros residuos plásticos, la sscuela recibirá su donación. Esta es una situación de ganar-ganar. Puedes unirte al compromiso, o simplemente donar a través de este link.

Estos son los hechos:

  • Los estadounidenses usan 100.000 millones de bolsas de plástico al año, y la familia estadounidense promedio se lleva a casa casi 1.500 bolsas de plástico cada año.
  • Hasta el 80% de la contaminación plástica del océano entra en el océano desde la tierra.
  • Al menos 267especies diferentes han sido afectadas por la contaminación plástica en el océano.
  • Cada año mueren 100,000 animales marinos con bolsas de plástico.
  • Una de cada tres tortugas marinas laúd han sido encontradas con plástico en el estómago.
  • Las bolsas de plástico se utilizan durante un promedio de 12 minutos.
  • Toman 500 (o más) años para que una bolsa de plástico se degrade en un relleno sanitario. Desafortunadamente, las bolsas no se descomponen por completo, sino que se degradan en la foto, convirtiéndose en microplásticos que absorben toxinas y continúan contaminando el medio ambiente.

Estos datos se han obtenido del Centro para la Diversidad Biológica

Andrew Gillan (Janus Henderson Investors): “We Have Already Started Asia’s Century. The US and Europe Are Losing Ground to China and India”

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According to Andrew Gillan, Head of Asia ex Japan Equities at Janus Henderson Investors, there is a huge amount of disruption in Asia, the world’s growth engine, but this also means that there is a huge amount of opportunity for investors. Gillan, who is based in Singapore and has an extended on the ground experience, explains that the main rationale to invest in Asian equities is that, over the long-term, Asian equities have had the capacity to generate a higher return than other markets. Even through the Asian Crisis in the late 90s and through the 2008 Financial Crisis, the MSCI AC Asia Pacific Ex Japan Index has generated greater returns than the MSCI AC World Index, obtaining 8,1% of annualized gross returns vs 7,4%, from December 1987 to August 2018. 

The relevance of Asia in technology and disruption

With a population of 1.4 billion of people, China has 772 million of internet users (55% of the population); 717 million of smartphone users (51%); 753 million of mobile internet users (53%) and 527 million of mobile payment users (37%). Meanwhile, in the US, with a population substantially smaller and a higher percentage of internet, smartphones and mobile internet users, there is less room for potential growth.     

“The relevance of the information technology sector in Asia has grown considerably in the last two decades, and now represents a 26% of the benchmark index. Meanwhile, Financials, that right now comprise about 32% of the index, are very susceptible to disruption. In ten years, they will probably have a lower weight. Tactically, our strategies are overweighting Financials now, in part because the Fed is rising interest rates, but from a long-term structural perspective, we have been underweighting Financials when investing in Asia”, says Andrew Gillan.

“In terms of allocating geographically to the region, I could say that we have already started Asia’s century. Tailwinds for Asia, in terms of population growth and demographics are very powerful. The US and Europe are losing ground to China and India. By 2030, Asia is expected to make up to 66% of the world’s middle-class population, a powerful reason for accessing the consumer in these markets.

Another matter that is worth highlighting is the effect of the online grocery markets on bricks and mortar retail sector. China’s online grocery market is expected to reach 30 billion USD this year. This market has been growing at an annual rate of 73% over the last six years”, he adds.  

Managing disruption

The Janus Henderson Asia Pacific Capital Growth fund is a truly active strategy, investing only in 40 companies or less. It does not have an overwhelming style bias, mixing quality and value stocks, and its is liquid, the volume of asset under management allows the portfolio management team to be nimble in their investment decisions.   

“About 70% of the stocks in the portfolio are considered core companies, with superior and consistent return on equity and cash generation ratios and with very strong franchises, for example: Alibaba or Tencent. The other 30% is the dynamic part of the portfolio, those are the stocks that we believe give us a good positioning to navigate markets. We hold positions in companies that we consider to be disruptive or adapters to the industry changes, or if we think that market conditions are changing in the short-term, we focus on companies that have a compelling valuation or are cyclicals”, explains Andrew Gillan.

Embracing disruption  

Janus Henderson’s team embraces disruption in investment decisions. They define disruption as an entirely new product, service, or process that creates significant incremental value over the long term. They do not limit it to the Artificial Intelligence or the Technology sector, but they extended it to traditional sectors, like consumer, insurance, banking and IT services.

“We normally identify the disruption potential in companies through the leading indicators of potential disruption. These may be a visionary leader or a management team that is willing to change an existing ecosystem or trying to challenge a different business model. It can also be the “right” corporate culture, a track record of innovation, a good long-term strategy and vision, strong financials to organically fund required investments, or strategic and timely mergers and acquisitions. We believe that successful disruption will lead to high and sustainable return on equity over the long-term”, he says.

“Similarly, if we apply the same disruption potential to our investment process, we can say that we assess the management, financial and franchise quality. Additionally, we have frequent interactions with the companies that we invest in, something that we think is the key way to identify and look for the impact of disruption on investments. We are probably more quality investors rather than disruption investors, as we believe that quality companies have higher chances of becoming disruptors or being protected from disruptions”.

Not all disruption is profitable

Clearly, not all disruption is profitable. More than 40 bike-sharing service companies have sprouted in China since 2016, because it is a business with very low barriers to entry. However, the bike-sharing market in China is undergoing a significant consolidation, with more than 20 start-ups going to bust as of February 2018.

“There are only going to be a few winners, and not surprisingly, they will be the companies that are backed by the “big guys”. That is the case of OFO, a company that secured 866 million USD in a new round of financing led by Alibaba, or the case of Mobike, a company adquired by Meituan Dianping, China’s larger provider of on-demand online services, at a valuation of 3.7 billion USD. The companies with the bigger and deeper pockets become the winners”, he concludes.   

Steve Drew (Janus Henderson Investors): “Argentina is Going to Be One of the Best Bond Markets in the Next Six Months”

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According to Steve Drew, Portfolio Manager and Head of Emerging Markets Fixed Income at Janus Henderson Investors, the Emerging Market Corporate bond is an asset class that has been often overlooked and misunderstood, but this trend is distinctly changing. With about 15 years of history, this asset class sometimes behaves as a teenager, reacting with tantrums every now and then. 

“This evolving asset class is growing rapidly and is now disrupting previous notions of how and where to earn income. With an investable universe of 2,149 billion of dollars, the JP Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified Index is twice the size the of the JP Morgan EMBI Index, one of the most frequently used benchmarks for Emerging Market Sovereign bonds”, said Drew.  

Over the past 10 years, the Emerging Market Corporate asset class has also doubled the annual growth rate of Emerging Market Sovereign bonds, 18% vs 9%. It now comprises 52 countries, 12 sectors and 645 unique issuers, set against 149 issuers for the EM Sovereign debt.

In Emerging Markets, corporate bonds have higher credit quality than sovereign bonds, the average credit rating of the JP Morgan CEMBI is BBB- and 59% of its universe is investment grade, whereas the JP Morgan EMBI has an average rating of BB+ and only 51% of its bonds are investment grade.

“There is one big market that dominates the issuance of Emerging Market Corporate debt, and that is China, who happens to be an investment grade country, and therefore, lot of the companies that issue debt in China are investment grade”, explained Steve Drew.

There are also some other characteristics that make EM Corporate debt attractive. Duration, a matter that is in every fixed income investors mind now that the Federal Reserve is hiking interest rates every three months, is lower in the EM Corporate debt than in most of other credit asset classes. For example, their benchmark duration is only 4.52 years, whereas EM Sovereign bond’s benchmark has a duration of 6.66 years, the US Aggregate Bond index has a duration of 6,36 and the Global Aggregate Bond index has a duration of 7.16 years.     

Recently, emerging markets have grabbed the attention of news headlines, debt and currency crisis in Argentina and Turkey, elections in Mexico and Brazil or trade tensions in China have added uncertainty to the asset class. But, when volatility is translated across many issuers, there is less volatility in EM Corporate bonds than in EM Sovereign bonds. EM Corporate bonds have lower maximum drawdown and lower standard deviation than the EM Sovereign bonds, with -4,6% vs -6,6% (5 years trailing, as of 31 August 2018), and 4,2% vs 6,0% (3 years trailing, as of 31 August 2018), respectively.  

EM Corporate bonds also have lower leverage than developed markets, both in investment grade and high yield asset classes, and their forecasted default rates for 2018 are expected to be lower than those of US High yield. 

“Emerging Market Corporate bonds, as an asset class, has lower leverage, less or similar volatility, lower duration and is actually cheaper than other developed markets. So, what risks are the investors taking? They are taking the macro and geopolitical risks, and sometimes foreign exchange risks, even if the investors are buying a dollar denominated bond”, explained Drew.

“Lately, Emerging Markets have suffered a sell-off, but they had a fantastic performance in 2016 and 2017. In the last 16 years, the total return of JP Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified, annualized, has been a 7%, only 90 basis points below US High Yield (measured by BofA Merrill Lynch U.S. High Yield Master), but being an investment grade asset class, having better credit quality, lower leverage and duration”, he added.  

Where are EM Corporates headed?

Argentina, Turkey, Indonesia, South Africa, Brazil and Mexico have recently created some noise, but this noise is not necessarily related with the fundamentals of those countries, part of the uproar is strongly related to the Fed’s normalization of their monetary policy.

“In Emerging Markets, is very important to quantify how the macro, the geopolitical and foreign exchange risks are going to affect the country you are investing in. You should only invest when you get a green light in both the fundamentals and the macro. Back in 2014, US imposed new sanctions on Russia, a country that represents about 5% of the JP Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified Index. Spreads widened 700 hundred points, but it was not a credit fundamental story, it was a macro story. So, we bought bonds issued by Gazprom, a company that has more cash than debt in its balance sheet and we knew it was a good investment. In 2015, all sectors in Brazil were trailing, whether it was a paper company, a petrochemical company or a protein producer, all companies traded at discount, without considering whether they were a good company or not, due to markets exposure to Lava Jato corruption case. For five months we were not invested in Brazil, the catalyst to go back and invest in the country was when we saw that Dilma Rousseff’s was going to be impeached, breaking the negative cycle.

In 2016, during US general election campaign, Trump threatened to build a wall on Mexico’s border and said that Mexicans would pay for it. If the US were to finally build that wall, the one company that would benefit from the construction would be CEMEX, which bonds were punished by the markets, trading at a discount of 10% to 20% for four weeks. When we saw the Mexican peso trading at 21 pesos against the dollar, we bought some more Mexican corporate debt, to see if we could take some foreign exchange translation risk”, said Drew. 

Since the beginning of this year, US foreign policy has created some distortion in Emerging Markets, but fundamentals are still good. From a valuation perspective, countries like Argentina, are now looking attractive. “Argentina is going to be one of the best bond markets in the next six months. Some of the quality companies that we have invested in Argentina are trading at 15% to 16% discount, if they were in any other country or in any other jurisdiction in the world, they would be trading at half that spread. Some of the Argentinian companies that we have invested in are one to two time leveraged, and they are strategically important within their country, but they are cheap because their macro circumstances. Turkey, on the other hand, has 105 billion dollars in its banking system to roll over in the next six months. Erdogan has already said no to an IMF bailout package, making more complicated for bond holders to recover their investments. Some of the banks’ Tier 2 capital debt is already trading at 70 to 80 cents of a dollar, but we think some of this debt is already worth 0. That is why I think Turkey is to avoid”, concluded Drew.

Important Information

US Offshore

This document is intended solely for the use of professionals, defined as Eligible Counterparties or Professional Clients, and US Advisors to Non-US Investors and is not for general public distribution.  We may record telephone calls for our mutual protection, to improve customer service and for regulatory record keeping purposes. 
Issued in the UK by Janus Henderson Investors. Janus Henderson Investors is the name under which Janus Capital International Limited (reg no. 3594615), Henderson Global Investors Limited (reg. no. 906355), Henderson Investment Funds Limited (reg. no. 2678531), AlphaGen Capital Limited (reg. no. 962757) and Henderson Equity Partners Limited (reg. no.2606646) (each incorporated and registered in England and Wales with registered office at 201 Bishopsgate, London EC2M 3AE), are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority to provide investment products and services. Henderson Secretarial Services Limited (incorporated and registered in England and Wales, registered no. 1471624, registered office 201 Bishopsgate, London EC2M 3AE) is the name under which company secretarial services are provided. All these companies are wholly owned subsidiaries of Janus Henderson Group plc (incorporated and registered in Jersey, registered no. 101484, registered office 47 Esplanade, St Helier, Jersey JE1 0BD).

We may record telephone calls for our mutual protection, to improve customer service and for regulatory record keeping purposes.

© 2018, Janus Henderson Investors. The name Janus Henderson Investors includes HGI Group Limited, Henderson Global Investors (Brand Management) Sarl and Janus International Holding LLC.

 

CASCAID Américas recibe el apoyo de la industria de inversión alternativa a través de AltsMIA

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CASCAID Americas Receives the Support of the Alternative Investment Industry Through AltsMIA
CC-BY-SA-2.0, FlickrAltsMIA Investment Forum speakers. CASCAID Américas recibe el apoyo de la industria de inversión alternativa a través de AltsMIA

El 6 de noviembre, el  AltsMIA Investment Forum reunirá a los principales expertos de la industria de inversión alternativa, en un evento que tendrá lugar en el JW Marriott de Miami.

Desarrollado por la CFA Society de Miami, CAIA Miami, Miami Finance Forum y MarketsGroup, los participantes se beneficiarán de los conocimientos de expertos en  private equity, venture capital, bienes raíces, hedge funds, criptomonedas, inteligencia artificial y aprenderán todo sobre la iniciativa CASCAID Americas.

La organización nos ha proporcionado amablemente un puesto en el que responderemos todas las preguntas sobre cómo unir fuerzas a través de CASCAID Américas para beneficiar a  The Seed School of Miami, la organización benéfica elegida para esta edición. Los miembros de esta increíble escuela estarán con nosotros para brindar información de primera mano sobre la escuela y sus necesidades.

Este es solo otro ejemplo de cómo la comunidad de gestión de activos une fuerzas para mejorar el mundo. Queremos agradecer muy especialmente  al embajador de CASCAID Américas Karim Aryeh, quien lo ha hecho posible.

Para ayudar a CASCAID Americas a alcanzar su meta de 150.000 dólares, haga una donación aquí.
 

Bolton ficha en Nueva York a Nicolas Schreiber

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Morgan Stanley Advisor Joins Bolton’s New York City Office
Foto: ahundt. Bolton ficha en Nueva York a Nicolas Schreiber

Bolton Global Capital se complace en anunciar que Nicolas Schreiber se ha incorporado a la oficina de la firma en la ciudad de Nueva York. Schreiber, que anteriormente trabajaba en Morgan Stanley, administra 180 millones de dólares en activos de clientes. Su clientela internacional incluye clientes HNW e instituciones de EE.UU., Europa y América Latina.

Inició su carrera como asesor financiero en HSBC Private Bank en 2001 en Manhattan. Dos años más tarde, pasó a UBS International donde trabajó durante 5 años hasta que se incorporó a Smith Barney en 2008. Smith Barney fue adquirida por Morgan Stanley en 2009 donde Schreiber ha trabajado durante los últimos 9 años antes de unirse a Bolton en octubre de 2018. La custodia de las cuentas de sus clientes será a través de BNY Mellon Pershing.

Bolton abrió recientemente una oficina en la Quinta Avenida en Nueva York para reclutar a asesores con sede en Manhattan que deseen convertir sus operaciones al modelo de negocios independiente.

Desde la crisis financiera de 2008, varios cientos de equipos han migrado sus cuentas de clientes de los bancos principales y casas de corretaje a corredores independientes y asesores de inversiones matriculados como Bolton. Durante este período, Bolton ha reclutado asesores financieros con más de 5.000 millones dólares en activos de clientes de los principales bancos y casas de corretaje.

Bolton brinda apoyo de cumplimiento, administrativo y de desarrollo de marca así como también la tecnología de administración patrimonial y negociación para sus asesores financieros independientes. Conforme al modelo de negocios independiente de Bolton, los asesores conservan un porcentaje mucho mayor de sus cargos y comisiones y cuentan con acceso a toda la capacidad de administración patrimonial y negociación ofrecida por las firmas más grandes.

Schreiber tiene una licenciatura en economía y un título de contador público de la Universidad Católica en Argentina. “Estamos orgullosos de la incorporación de un profesional tan bien respetado a nuestra compañía y esperamos apoyar el crecimiento continuo de su negocio de administración patrimonial. Schreiber operará con el nombre comercial Nomad Advisors”, explicó Bolton en una nota de prensa.

La década (casi) perdida en los mercados emergentes

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Emerging Markets’ Lost (Near) Decade
Photo: ColiN00B . La década (casi) perdida en los mercados emergentes

Los inversores pueden estar listos para abandonar los mercados emergentes, pero el potencial está allí para un repunte considerable. El sector de tecnología de los Estados Unidos es una vez más ascendente. Desde el otoño de 2016, el índice sectorial de tecnología S&P 500 ha subido casi un 70%; El sector tecnológico ahora representa más del 25% de la capitalización bursátil del S&P 500.

A pesar de la fuerza del reciente rally, los entusiastas de la tecnología recordarán un muy largo período de impopularidad. Después de alcanzar un máximo a principios de 2000, el sector tecnológico perdió más del 80% de su valor. Luego tomó 17 años hasta que el sector recuperó su pico de 2000.

Los inversores en acciones de mercados emergentes (ME) deben tener en cuenta esa historia a medida que atraviesan una sequía similar, aunque menos prolongada. El índice MSCI Emerging Markets se cotiza aproximadamente al mismo nivel que a principios de 2010.

Valor, o la falta de él, jugó un papel

Las valuaciones en los mercados emergentes nunca se acercaron a las alturas olímpicas a las que cotizaron las acciones tecnológicas a fines de los años noventa. Dicho esto, las valoraciones han jugado un papel importante en la lucha de los mercados emergentes.

Desde que salieron de su propia crisis financiera a fines de la década de 1990, las acciones de los mercados emergentes han tendido a negociarse en un rango bien definido en comparación con los mercados desarrollados: un descuento del 45% a una prima del 10% (basado en el precio por libro). Los períodos en los que las acciones de los ME se negociaron con una prima, como a finales de 2007 y 2010, resultaron ser las máximas del mercado. Curiosamente, la reciente caída del 20% en los ME no se produjo por valiosas valoraciones. En enero, las acciones de los ME se cotizaban aproximadamente a 1,9 veces por libro, con un descuento del 23% respecto al índice MSCI World.

¿Otro fondo?

Tras la reciente corrección, las acciones de los ME se negocian a niveles que precedieron a los rebotes anteriores. Cotizando en aproximadamente 1,55 veces el precio por libro (P / B), su precio más bajo desde finales de 2016 y un 35% de descuento frente a los mercados desarrollados. El ratio precio a ganancias (P / E) pinta un cuadro similar. Las valoraciones actuales representan un 33% de descuento frente a los mercados desarrollados. Hoy en día, los países como Rusia y Corea del Sur cotizan a menos de 10 veces sus ganancias (ver gráfico 1).
 

 

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Por supuesto, las valoraciones nunca son la historia completa. A corto plazo, tal vez ni siquiera sean tan relevantes. Como comenté en agosto, un rebote en los ME probablemente requiera otros dos componentes: un dólar igual o más barato y signos de un rebote económico. En el primero, los mercados emergentes deberían estar obteniendo algo de alivio, ya que el dólar ahora ha caído casi un 3% desde su pico de agosto.

En términos de crecimiento económico, el panorama es más variado. A fines de julio, parecía que las economías de los mercados emergentes estaban creciendo más rápido que las expectativas. Ese rebote resultó fugaz. En el futuro, los inversores deberían centrarse en China, donde los esfuerzos para acelerar la economía a través del estímulo monetario se están acelerando. Por lo general, estos esfuerzos comienzan a impactar la economía real con un retraso de 1-2 trimestres.

La continua presión sobre países emergentes en particular, especialmente Turquía y Argentina, es parcialmente responsable de las pérdidas recientes. Las crecientes fricciones comerciales no han ayudado. Aún así, si el dólar se mantiene estable y China comienza a acelerar, las valoraciones sugieren el potencial de un repunte considerable.

En resumen

Para los inversionistas que han renunciado a los mercados emergentes, vale la pena recordar que nueve años después de alcanzar su nivel máximo, las acciones de tecnología de los EE.UU. todavía estaban 80% por debajo de su precio pico. Desde allí, el sector comenzó un rally que ha durado más de nueve años y resultó en una ganancia de más del 500%.

Build on Insight, de BlackRock, escrita por Russ Koesterich, CFA, gestor del Fondo de Asignación Global de BGF.

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Dan Siluk (Janus Henderson Investors): “We Will Probably Look Back to US Treasuries when the Fed Announces They Have Reached their Neutral point”

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Borrowing Donald Trump’s electoral campaign slogan, Dan Siluk, co-manager of the Absolute Return Income strategy at Janus Henderson, explained at the Madrid Knowledge Exchange 2018  event that markets are at the beginning of a new cycle of quantitative tightening that will “make rates great again”.

In the past decade, the intervention of the three main central banks were able to save the global economy from the financial crisis, but at the same time there were some intended and unintended consequences. The balance sheets of the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan rose exponentially, substantially dampening the volatility in the markets. 

The VIX index, who typically settled in the 20 – 30 points range over decades, in the last ten years traded in a very tight range, between 10 and 15 points. Any time there was a bout in volatility, the presidents of the central banks always came back to give an answer that reassured the markets. That’s what happened during the Greece and the Eurozone crisis in 2011-2012, when Mario Draghi pronounced his “Whatever it takes” speech, or in the “taper tantrum” episode, in the summer of 2013, when Ben Bernanke’ FOMC statement was interpreted by bond investors as a sell signal. 

With a clear correlation between central banks’ balance sheet size and the value of global assets indices, there has been inflation in practically all the asset classes, something that has greatly favored passive investments, like ETFs and index funds.    

“In the past decade, investors could do pretty well by simply earning the beta of the market. They could obtain an attractive performance regardless whether they owned rates or credits, just because rates were driven lower, and credit spreads were driven tighter. Any bouts of volatility were short lived, because central bankers were coming to the rescue. So as long as investors could ride through those periods of volatility their fixed income portfolios tended to do pretty well”, said Siluk. 

However, consumer price inflation has barely appeared. Except for United States and United Kingdom, were inflation expectations are lower in the near future, is expected that there will be a real inflation growth in the rest of developed economies, that would be the case of the Eurozone and Japan. In the latter country, after decades of low growth, consumption and growth in wages is returning. While in the Eurozone, unemployment levels are declining in many of the member states. Also, the Asian region excluding Japan is contributing significantly to global inflation. The emerging consumer is one of the fastest growing segments of the global economy and lately is leading inflation.

According to Janus Henderson Investors’ portfolio manager, we are facing the beginning of a new cycle, in which the Federal Reserve is reducing its balance, the European Central Bank has reduced the volume of monthly of its program purchases, aiming to finalize it at the end of year. And, even the Bank of Japan, in the last two years has slowed its program of quantitative easing, sporadically decreasing its balance.

Upside risks to rates

In the US, the necessity of financing a swelling deficit has significantly increased the supply in Treasuries. This increase together with a decrease in foreign investors demand on Treasuries, mainly due to the higher cost of hedging the exposure to US dollars, has partially diminished the total demand for Treasuries.

“Fiscal expansions tend to generate high levels of inflation. Even when there is a strong dollar due to the diversion in monetary policies among developed economies. Trump’s administration has certainly a bias towards a weaker dollar, which is inflationary. All these factors support our vision that rates are going to climb, and curves are going to steepen, that does not necessarily mean that we are going to wake up one morning and see rates 25 or 50 basic points higher. Typically, what happens is that they try to trade in a range and when they break that range, the highest point of the range becomes the new support level. For quite few months of this year, we have seen these 2,70% -3,0% yield range in the US Treasury 10-year bond. We just broke the 3,0%, and at some point, this 3% becomes now the point that backs up a resistance level”, he said. 

All these factors are pointing out that you need to be very nimble in fixed income management, specially in terms of asset allocation. Therefore, in this strategy, they favor a benchmark agnostic strategy.

“Benchmark indices normally have certain limitations. We need to be active and flexible, to invest anywhere around the globe. For example, today, rather than bear interest risk in US, which is rising rates, we are looking at commodity-producing countries, like Australia and New Zealand. Because China is slowing down, these economies have very high household debt to income ratios. Their banking costs are increasing. Local banks are rising mortgage rates, whereas central banks are on hold. So, the domestic banks are partially doing the job of the central banks, who are maintaining a dovish position. We rather have interest rate risk in countries that are dovish or on hold monetary policy”, he explained.      

“We will probably look back to US Treasuries when the Fed announces they have reached their neutral point.  The US is today the highest yield across the developed world. It is also a very steep curve in the front part of the curve. The 10-year Treasury bond yields are offering a spread of 20 basis points over the 2-year notes, so investors are not actually getting paid for the additional interest rate risk or duration risk. On the other hand, the front-end of the curve will be an even more attractive investment once the Fed will finish their hiking cycle”, he concluded.

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