¿Por qué invertimos en renta variable? Una razón clave es porque las inversiones en acciones generan tipos de interés compuesto con el tiempo. Al invertir 100 dólares en una compañía que crece un 10-15% al año durante 20 años, esos 100 dólares se convierten en 673 dólares con un tipo de interés compuesto del 10%, o en 1637 dólares a una tasa del 15%. Por comparación, un bono al 3% generaría un retorno de 181 dólares en el mismo periodo.
Estos “compounders” del 10-15% no son tan difíciles de encontrar como cabría pensar, y muchos son nombres familiares: Google, Mastercard o Louis Vuitton. Los llamamos compañías de crecimiento secular (“secular growers”): empresas de alta calidad con tendencias seculares favorables (publicidad digital, pagos móviles y democratización del lujo, respectivamente).
Esta estrategia ha funcionado a muchos inversores durante décadas. Sin embargo, como recientemente los valores “growth” se han portado peor que la media del mercado surge la duda: ¿es el final de la inversión en crecimiento secular?
Para responder esta pregunta, examinamos las dos causas principales del peor comportamiento reciente del growth:
1. Crecimiento secular: ¿pausado o acabado?
La pandemia de covid-19 aceleró algunas tendencias de crecimiento secular. Un ejemplo es el comercio electrónico. Antes de la pandemia, las ventas por internet en Estados Unidos habían estado creciendo por encima del 9% al año entre 2009 y 2019. La penetración del comercio electrónico (como porcentaje de todas las ventas minoristas en EE. UU.) se incrementó desde el 12,2% de 2009 al 20,8% de 2019, un 0,9% al año. En 2020, la penetración del e-commerce se disparó por los confinamientos: desde el 20,9% de diciembre de 2019 al 26,8% de abril de 2020, el equivalente al avance de cuatro años de crecimiento del comercio online en tan solo cuatro meses.
Algo del efecto impulso se mantendrá; por ejemplo, es posible un octogenario que aprendió a comprar online en 2020 siga comprando online en el futuro. Pero en 2022 está habiendo algo de normalización entre las compras online y físicas, a medida que vuelve la normalidad.
Este efecto “avance y pausa” fue evidente en los resultados financieros de Amazon. La tasa interanual de ventas online de las tiendas de Amazon saltó del 24,3% del primer trimestre de 2020 al 47,8% del segundo trimestre de 2020. La tasa de crecimiento se mantuvo en torno al 40% durante cuatro trimestres, y después se empezó a moderar en 2021. Desde el tercer trimestre de 2021, las ventas online de Amazon apenas han crecido.
Tratamos de mirar más allá del impulso por el Covid, al examinar el periodo de tres años entre 2019 y 2022. La tasa anualizada de crecimiento ha estado en torno al 20%, sugiriendo que el crecimiento secular sigue siendo sano. Es más, la tasa de crecimiento interanual de Amazon debería recuperarse hasta el 15% para finales de 2022, según las estimaciones del consenso de FactSet, en línea con la tendencia de crecimiento secular en el largo plazo.
Se produjeron patrones similares en TV conectadas (Netflix y Roku), redes sociales (Facebook y Snapchat) y algunas aplicaciones de software (Adobe y Asana). Casi cualquier cosa vinculada a una pantalla.
2. La rentabilidad al alza de los bonos comprime las valoraciones de la renta variable
No todas las acciones de crecimiento secular sufrieron el mismo impacto del Covid. Analicemos por ejemplo Adyen, un proveedor de servicios de pago para comercios. Los ingresos de Adyen crecieron un 28% en 2020. A pesar de un 2021 fuerte, cuando sus ingresos crecieron un 46%, se sigue esperando que Adyen crezca un 39% en 2022. Es más, las expectativas del consenso 2022 para ingresos y beneficios (ebitda) no han cambiado entre noviembre de 2021 y abril de 2022. Sin embargo, la cotización de Adyen se desplomó más del 40% en el mismo periodo.
¿Qué pasó? La valoración. La valoración de Adyen según la ratio EV/Ebitda, se desplomó un 46%, lastrando la cotización a pesar de que no hubo cambios en los fundamentales del negocio.
Las preocupaciones por la inflación son la principal razón por la compresión de valoraciones. La inflación más alta de lo esperado desató el miedo de que los bancos centrales tuvieran que subir tipos más agresivamente de lo anticipado previamente.
Los tipos más altos dañaron a las acciones growth más que a las value. Esto se debe a porque, cuando valoramos las acciones por su descuento de flujos de caja, los flujos growth son mayores en el futuro y, por tanto, más sensibles a los cambios en las tasas de descuento. Al subir la rentabilidad del Treasury a 30 años del 2% de noviembre de 2021 al 3% en abril de 2022, la valoración de las acciones growth cayó un 30%, frente al 15% de las acciones value.
En resumen, la combinación de la pausa en las tendencias de crecimiento secular y la compresión de las valoraciones por el repunte de los tipos, ocurridas ambas a finales de 2021, provocaron el peor comportamiento del growht.
Ahora bien, ¿es el final de la inversión del crecimiento secular? Veamos dos factores:
- ¿Se ha roto la tendencia del crecimiento secular?
Debemos evaluar cuidadosamente cada tendencia secular de forma individual. Algunas tendencias de crecimiento podrían sostenerse (adopción de la nube), algunas se están tomando una pausa (comercio electrónico y TV conectada) y otras podrían retroceder a niveles de 2019 (¿deporte en casa?).
Siguiendo con el ejemplo del e-commerce, la penetración en Estados Unidos fue del 24,5% en febrero de 2022. Por comparación, la penetración en China ya alcanzó el 34,1% en 2019 y saltó hasta el 52% en 2021, según eMarketer. La penetración del comercio electrónico en Estados Unidos ha estado subiendo un 0,9% en 2009-2019. Si continúa una tendencia similar desde 2022, el comercio electrónico en EE.UU. podría seguir creciendo al menos otros diez años, antes de alcanzar los niveles de China.
2. ¿Son sensatas las valoraciones?
Es difícil ser definitivos en términos absolutos, pero las valoraciones relativas se están volviendo interesantes.
¿Cuál de estas compañías preferiría tener en cartera cinco años: A o B, y C o D?
Mirando solo los números, muchos podrían preferir la compañía A a la B, y la C a la D. A y C tienen métricas financieras muy superiores, a pesar de cotizar a valoraciones similares a B y D.
La compañía A es Google, la B es Duke Energy (eléctrica), la C es Microsoft y la D es General Mills (alimentación). En un entorno volátil, las acciones value como Duke Energy o General Mills son preferidas, gracias a su estatus refugio. Estas acciones pueden merecer actualmente algo de asignación de capital. Pero en un horizonte de más largo plazo, son las compañías de crecimiento secular como Google o Microsoft las que generan retornos fuertes a los inversores pacientes.
Para concluir, el comportamiento inferior de las acciones de crecimiento secular desde noviembre de 2021 se puede atribuir a la combinación de 1) la pausa en el crecimiento secular para digerir las ganancias por covid y 2) la compresión de las valoraciones de la renta variable por el alza en los rendimientos de los bonos. Ahora, las dudas que se plantean los inversores en crecimiento secular son: 1) ¿están rotas o intactas las tendencias de crecimiento secular en el largo plazo? y 2) ¿son razonables las valoraciones? Si las respuestas son sí, entonces la inversión en crecimiento secular debería continuar generando ganancias en el largo plazo.
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