La renta variable de EE .UU. subió en su mayoría durante el mes de enero, y el S&P 500 alcanzó un nuevo máximo histórico por primera vez desde principios de 2022. Las acciones extendieron sin problemas su impulso positivo del cuarto trimestre al nuevo año, sostenidas por el rendimiento estelar de varios nombres de los «7 Magníficos«, como Nvidia (NVDA), Netflix (NFLX) y Meta (META). A pesar de la cautela provocada por las condiciones de sobrecompra que persisten desde finales de año, el mercado sigue mostrando su resistencia.
El 31 de enero, la Reserva Federal mantuvo los tipos de interés en sus niveles actuales, al tiempo que se mostró reacia a iniciar recortes de tipos ya en marzo. Durante la conferencia de prensa, el presidente de la Fed, Jerome Powell, declaró que la Fed necesita ver más pruebas de que la caída de la inflación es sostenible y que queda «camino por recorrer» antes de declarar que se ha logrado un aterrizaje suave. Los inversores se han visto alentados por indicadores adelantados como los PMI, los resultados empresariales y los comentarios, que sugieren que la desaceleración económica ya está en marcha. La próxima reunión del FOMC se celebrará los días 19 y 20 de marzo.
Los valores de pequeña capitalización empezaron el mes por detrás de los de gran capitalización, algo inusual si se tiene en cuenta que históricamente los valores de pequeña capitalización han obtenido buenos resultados en enero. El mediocre comportamiento de los valores de pequeña capitalización puede atribuirse en gran medida a su significativo repunte en diciembre. Sin embargo, prevemos un entorno favorable para las empresas más pequeñas en 2024 , ya que los tipos tras el pico y la consolidación necesaria en ciertos sectores como los medios de comunicación, la energía y la banca deberían conducir a un año más robusto. La actividad de fusiones y adquisiciones comenzó el año con fuerza, sentando las bases para la aparición de catalizadores en nuestra cartera de empresas.
Los inversores en arbitraje de fusiones se vieron perjudicados por la ampliación de los diferenciales tras la rescisión de la adquisición de PNM Resources por parte de Avangrid y por los problemas derivados de dos operaciones bloqueadas por los reguladores: la adquisición de Spirit Airlines por parte de JetBlue por 7.500 millones de dólares y la adquisición de iRobot por parte de Amazon por 1.400 millones de dólares. Los diferenciales se ampliaron en simpatía por las operaciones sujetas a revisiones antimonopolio ampliadas, como Albertsons, Capri, Hess/Chevron y Pioneer/Exxon. Creemos que estas operaciones se completarán, lo que permitirá a los inversores obtener mayores beneficios en el futuro.
En el caso de PNM Resources, después de que las empresas recibieran todas las demás aprobaciones necesarias, recurrieron el rechazo del regulador de servicios públicos de Nuevo México ante el Tribunal Supremo del Estado. Avangrid decidió entonces dejar que el acuerdo de fusión expirara en enero en lugar de esperar a la decisión del Tribunal Supremo. Aunque el resultado fue decepcionante, la desventaja de PNM se consideró limitada y dimensionamos la posición adecuadamente. Además, PNM proporcionó en febrero orientaciones actualizadas que la sitúan como una de las empresas de servicios públicos de más rápido crecimiento en EE.UU. y merecedora de una valoración superior. Esperamos salir de PNM en los próximos meses a medida que las acciones reduzcan el descuento de valoración.
Mientras que el rendimiento del mercado de renta variable en enero estuvo impulsado por unas pocas empresas tecnológicas de gran capitalización, el mercado de convertibles cuenta con muchos emisores de pequeña y mediana capitalización, con oportunidades de rendimientos asimétricos a largo plazo. Seguimos viendo un gran número de vencimientos que habrá que abordar este año, lo que esperamos que beneficie a la emisión de convertibles. Dado que los tipos de interés se mantienen al alza, los tipos de interés relativamente bajos de los convertibles deberían convertirlos en una opción atractiva, ya que las empresas buscan refinanciarse sin un aumento significativo de los gastos por intereses. Las emisiones recientes se han realizado a niveles atractivos para los inversores, al tiempo que ofrecen a las empresas un coste de capital interesante. Muchas de las nuevas emisiones de los últimos 6 meses han funcionado bien desde el principio y siguen siendo atractivas para las carteras, ya que suelen tener primas más bajas que muchas de las emisiones existentes.
Tribuna de opinión de Michael Gabelli, managing director de Gabelli & Partners.
To access our proprietary value investment methodology, and dedicated merger arbitrage portfolio we offer the following UCITS Funds in each discipline:
GAMCO MERGER ARBITRAGE
GAMCO Merger Arbitrage UCITS Fund, launched in October 2011, is an open-end fund incorporated in Luxembourg and compliant with UCITS regulation. The team, dedicated strategy, and record dates back to 1985. The objective of the GAMCO Merger Arbitrage Fund is to achieve long-term capital growth by investing primarily in announced equity merger and acquisition transactions while maintaining a diversified portfolio. The Fund utilizes a highly specialized investment approach designed principally to profit from the successful completion of proposed mergers, takeovers, tender offers, leveraged buyouts and other types of corporate reorganizations. Analyzes and continuously monitors each pending transaction for potential risk, including: regulatory, terms, financing, and shareholder approval.
Merger investments are a highly liquid, non-market correlated, proven and consistent alternative to traditional fixed income and equity securities. Merger returns are dependent on deal spreads. Deal spreads are a function of time, deal risk premium, and interest rates. Returns are thus correlated to interest rate changes over the medium term and not the broader equity market. The prospect of rising rates would imply higher returns on mergers as spreads widen to compensate arbitrageurs. As bond markets decline (interest rates rise), merger returns should improve as capital allocation decisions adjust to the changes in the costs of capital.
Broad Market volatility can lead to widening of spreads in merger positions, coupled with our well-researched merger portfolios, offer the potential for enhanced IRRs through dynamic position sizing. Daily price volatility fluctuations coupled with less proprietary capital (the Volcker rule) in the U.S. have contributed to improving merger spreads and thus, overall returns. Thus our fund is well positioned as a cash substitute or fixed income alternative.
Our objectives are to compound and preserve wealth over time, while remaining non-correlated to the broad global markets. We created our first dedicated merger fund 32 years ago. Since then, our merger performance has grown client assets at an annualized rate of approximately 10.7% gross and 7.6% net since 1985. Today, we manage assets on behalf of institutional and high net worth clients globally in a variety of fund structures and mandates.
Class I USD – LU0687944552
Class I EUR – LU0687944396
Class A USD – LU0687943745
Class A EUR – LU0687943661
Class R USD – LU1453360825
Class R EUR – LU1453361476
GAMCO ALL CAP VALUE
The GAMCO All Cap Value UCITS Fund launched in May, 2015 utilizes Gabelli’s its proprietary PMV with a Catalyst™ investment methodology, which has been in place since 1977. The Fund seeks absolute returns through event driven value investing. Our methodology centers around fundamental, research-driven, value based investing with a focus on asset values, cash flows and identifiable catalysts to maximize returns independent of market direction. The fund draws on the experience of its global portfolio team and 35+ value research analysts.
GAMCO is an active, bottom-up, value investor, and seeks to achieve real capital appreciation (relative to inflation) over the long term regardless of market cycles. Our value-oriented stock selection process is based on the fundamental investment principles first articulated in 1934 by Graham and Dodd, the founders of modern security analysis, and further augmented by Mario Gabelli in 1977 with his introduction of the concepts of Private Market Value (PMV) with a Catalyst™ into equity analysis. PMV with a Catalyst™ is our unique research methodology that focuses on individual stock selection by identifying firms selling below intrinsic value with a reasonable probability of realizing their PMV’s which we define as the price a strategic or financial acquirer would be willing to pay for the entire enterprise. The fundamental valuation factors utilized to evaluate securities prior to inclusion/exclusion into the portfolio, our research driven approach views fundamental analysis as a three pronged approach: free cash flow (earnings before, interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA, minus the capital expenditures necessary to grow/maintain the business); earnings per share trends; and private market value (PMV), which encompasses on and off balance sheet assets and liabilities. Our team arrives at a PMV valuation by a rigorous assessment of fundamentals from publicly available information and judgement gained from meeting management, covering all size companies globally and our comprehensive, accumulated knowledge of a variety of sectors. We then identify businesses for the portfolio possessing the proper margin of safety and research variables from our deep research universe.
Class I USD – LU1216601648
Class I EUR – LU1216601564
Class A USD – LU1216600913
Class A EUR – LU1216600673
Class R USD – LU1453359900
Class R EUR – LU1453360155
GAMCO CONVERTIBLE SECURITIES
GAMCO Convertible Securities’ objective is to seek to provide current income as well as long term capital appreciation through a total return strategy by investing in a diversified portfolio of global convertible securities.
The Fund leverages the firm’s history of investing in dedicated convertible security portfolios since 1979.
The fund invests in convertible securities, as well as other instruments that have economic characteristics similar to such securities, across global markets (but the fund will not invest in contingent convertible notes). The fund may invest in securities of any market capitalization or credit quality, including up to 100% in below investment grade or unrated securities, and may from time to time invest a significant amount of its assets in securities of smaller companies. Convertible securities may include any suitable convertible instruments such as convertible bonds, convertible notes or convertible preference shares.
By actively managing the fund and investing in convertible securities, the investment manager seeks the opportunity to participate in the capital appreciation of underlying stocks, while at the same time relying on the fixed income aspect of the convertible securities to provide current income and reduced price volatility, which can limit the risk of loss in a down equity market.
Class I USD LU2264533006
Class I EUR LU2264532966
Class A USD LU2264532701
Class A EUR LU2264532610
Class R USD LU2264533345
Class R EUR LU2264533261
Class F USD LU2264533691
Class F EUR LU2264533428
Disclaimer:
The information and any opinions have been obtained from or are based on sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No responsibility can be accepted for any consequential loss arising from the use of this information. The information is expressed at its date and is issued only to and directed only at those individuals who are permitted to receive such information in accordance with the applicable statutes. In some countries the distribution of this publication may be restricted. It is your responsibility to find out what those restrictions are and observe them.
Some of the statements in this presentation may contain or be based on forward looking statements, forecasts, estimates, projections, targets, or prognosis (“forward looking statements”), which reflect the manager’s current view of future events, economic developments and financial performance. Such forward looking statements are typically indicated by the use of words which express an estimate, expectation, belief, target or forecast. Such forward looking statements are based on an assessment of historical economic data, on the experience and current plans of the investment manager and/or certain advisors of the manager, and on the indicated sources. These forward looking statements contain no representation or warranty of whatever kind that such future events will occur or that they will occur as described herein, or that such results will be achieved by the fund or the investments of the fund, as the occurrence of these events and the results of the fund are subject to various risks and uncertainties. The actual portfolio, and thus results, of the fund may differ substantially from those assumed in the forward looking statements. The manager and its affiliates will not undertake to update or review the forward looking statements contained in this presentation, whether as result of new information or any future event or otherwise.
