Las acciones de Estados Unidos cayeron drásticamente en abril, y el S&P 500 registró su peor descenso mensual desde marzo del 2020, debido a que el aumento de los tipos de interés, la alta inflación y la continua invasión de Ucrania por parte de Rusia continúan siendo los principales riesgos fundamentales.
El Nasdaq Composite terminó en un nuevo mínimo para 2022 y registró su peor mes desde 2008. Los valores tecnológicos han sido el epicentro de la liquidación causada por los tipos de interés más altos que reducen las estimaciones de crecimiento de las empresas y disminuyen las valoraciones de las acciones. Además, se espera que persistan durante el resto del año preocupaciones más importantes en torno a los problemas de las cadenas de suministro.
La guerra entre Rusia y Ucrania, que ya dura más de dos meses, está ocurriendo en un momento delicado para la economía mundial. Las implicaciones del conflicto han tenido un gran impacto en los mercados financieros, ya que las sanciones económicas y las interrupciones en las cadenas de suministro han aumentado significativamente los precios de las materias primas, lo que ha repercutido en mayores costes de los insumos para las empresas. Por ahora, no parece que el conflicto se resuelva pronto, y es difícil ver cómo una Rusia dirigida por Putin se reintegraría en la economía global.
La Reserva Federal sigue siendo agresiva y espera combatir la inflación con aumentos agresivos de los tipos durante el resto del año. Durante abril, el presidente de la institución monetaria estadounidense, Jerome Powell, señaló que un incremento de 50 pb estará sobre la mesa para la próxima reunión. Si bien los aumentos adicionales deberían ayudar a restaurar la estabilidad de los precios, es probable que los tipos más altos desaceleren significativamente el crecimiento económico y del empleo.
A pesar de que China ha implementado su estrategia de «cero covid» en un esfuerzo por evitar los nuevos brotes del virus, es tentador sugerir que gran parte de la vida de los estadounidenses está volviendo a la normalidad. Hasta la fecha, unos 220 millones de estadounidenses están completamente vacunados, lo que representa cerca del 66% de la población. Además, los datos publicados por los Centros para el Control y la Prevención de Enfermedades del país estiman que alrededor del 60 % de la población ya se ha infectado con el coronavirus, casi el doble de la tasa de infección antes de omicron.
La confusión en torno a las políticas de la Reserva Federal y la economía también se adentró en el espacio de arbitraje de fusiones, lo que se tradujo en una mayor volatilidad del mercado. La mayoría de los activos de riesgo se vendieron de abril a principios de mayo y los diferenciales de las operaciones se ampliaron. Específicamente, la adquisición de Shaw Communications por parte de Rogers vio que su difusión se amplió bastante, después de que la Oficina Canadiense de Competencia declarara su preocupación por el acuerdo el 9 de mayo.
El diferencial en el acuerdo de Twitter, que será adquirido por Elon Musk por 54,20 dólares en efectivo por acción, también se amplió como resultado de las críticas públicas de Elon Musk sobre la cantidad de bots en la plataforma, un problema que el empresario sudafricano declaró que buscaría solucionar. Parece que el CEO de Tesla busca aprovechar la debilidad de las acciones tecnológicas para obtener un precio más bajo y facilitarle la financiación de la compra.
Los convertibles tuvieron su peor mes desde marzo del 2020 y el nivel más bajo de emisión se remonta a septiembre del 2011. Los múltiplos de crecimiento continúan contrayéndose por los temores de hasta qué punto la Fed tendrá que aumentar los tipos para combatir la inflación. La ampliación de los diferenciales de crédito ha pesado sobre los convertibles más sensibles a los tipos de interés. Este doble golpe ha llevado a la primera caída de los convertibles, mientras que los tipos de interés han subido por primera vez en casi 30 años. En entornos difíciles como este, siempre nos ha parecido importante confiar en las experiencias pasadas y buscar las oportunidades que nos brinda el mercado. De cara al futuro, hay algunas razones para ser optimistas sobre los convertibles a largo plazo.
Con los mercados de acciones en declive, hemos visto que las primas se expanden sustancialmente en algunos convertibles. Esta es una señal de que las emisiones que tenemos en cartera han hecho su trabajo, superando a sus títulos subyacentes a medida que se han movido a la baja. Generalmente, preferimos no invertir en convertibles con primas excesivas, pero algunos de estos tienen rendimientos al vencimiento muy atractivos, en negocios con flujos de caja positivos y balances sólidos. Dado que estos convertibles están muy por debajo de la media, en caso de que se adquiera la empresa, recibiríamos ese promedio por nuestros bonos. Seguimos buscando oportunidades atractivas en esta creciente área del mercado de convertibles.
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To access our proprietary value investment methodology, and dedicated merger arbitrage portfolio we offer the following UCITS Funds in each discipline:
GAMCO MERGER ARBITRAGE
GAMCO Merger Arbitrage UCITS Fund, launched in October 2011, is an open-end fund incorporated in Luxembourg and compliant with UCITS regulation. The team, dedicated strategy, and record dates back to 1985. The objective of the GAMCO Merger Arbitrage Fund is to achieve long-term capital growth by investing primarily in announced equity merger and acquisition transactions while maintaining a diversified portfolio. The Fund utilizes a highly specialized investment approach designed principally to profit from the successful completion of proposed mergers, takeovers, tender offers, leveraged buyouts and other types of corporate reorganizations. Analyzes and continuously monitors each pending transaction for potential risk, including: regulatory, terms, financing, and shareholder approval.
Merger investments are a highly liquid, non-market correlated, proven and consistent alternative to traditional fixed income and equity securities. Merger returns are dependent on deal spreads. Deal spreads are a function of time, deal risk premium, and interest rates. Returns are thus correlated to interest rate changes over the medium term and not the broader equity market. The prospect of rising rates would imply higher returns on mergers as spreads widen to compensate arbitrageurs. As bond markets decline (interest rates rise), merger returns should improve as capital allocation decisions adjust to the changes in the costs of capital.
Broad Market volatility can lead to widening of spreads in merger positions, coupled with our well-researched merger portfolios, offer the potential for enhanced IRRs through dynamic position sizing. Daily price volatility fluctuations coupled with less proprietary capital (the Volcker rule) in the U.S. have contributed to improving merger spreads and thus, overall returns. Thus our fund is well positioned as a cash substitute or fixed income alternative.
Our objectives are to compound and preserve wealth over time, while remaining non-correlated to the broad global markets. We created our first dedicated merger fund 32 years ago. Since then, our merger performance has grown client assets at an annualized rate of approximately 10.7% gross and 7.6% net since 1985. Today, we manage assets on behalf of institutional and high net worth clients globally in a variety of fund structures and mandates.
Class I USD – LU0687944552
Class I EUR – LU0687944396
Class A USD – LU0687943745
Class A EUR – LU0687943661
Class R USD – LU1453360825
Class R EUR – LU1453361476
GAMCO ALL CAP VALUE
The GAMCO All Cap Value UCITS Fund launched in May, 2015 utilizes Gabelli’s its proprietary PMV with a Catalyst™ investment methodology, which has been in place since 1977. The Fund seeks absolute returns through event driven value investing. Our methodology centers around fundamental, research-driven, value based investing with a focus on asset values, cash flows and identifiable catalysts to maximize returns independent of market direction. The fund draws on the experience of its global portfolio team and 35+ value research analysts.
GAMCO is an active, bottom-up, value investor, and seeks to achieve real capital appreciation (relative to inflation) over the long term regardless of market cycles. Our value-oriented stock selection process is based on the fundamental investment principles first articulated in 1934 by Graham and Dodd, the founders of modern security analysis, and further augmented by Mario Gabelli in 1977 with his introduction of the concepts of Private Market Value (PMV) with a Catalyst™ into equity analysis. PMV with a Catalyst™ is our unique research methodology that focuses on individual stock selection by identifying firms selling below intrinsic value with a reasonable probability of realizing their PMV’s which we define as the price a strategic or financial acquirer would be willing to pay for the entire enterprise. The fundamental valuation factors utilized to evaluate securities prior to inclusion/exclusion into the portfolio, our research driven approach views fundamental analysis as a three pronged approach: free cash flow (earnings before, interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA, minus the capital expenditures necessary to grow/maintain the business); earnings per share trends; and private market value (PMV), which encompasses on and off balance sheet assets and liabilities. Our team arrives at a PMV valuation by a rigorous assessment of fundamentals from publicly available information and judgement gained from meeting management, covering all size companies globally and our comprehensive, accumulated knowledge of a variety of sectors. We then identify businesses for the portfolio possessing the proper margin of safety and research variables from our deep research universe.
Class I USD – LU1216601648
Class I EUR – LU1216601564
Class A USD – LU1216600913
Class A EUR – LU1216600673
Class R USD – LU1453359900
Class R EUR – LU1453360155
GAMCO CONVERTIBLE SECURITIES
GAMCO Convertible Securities’ objective is to seek to provide current income as well as long term capital appreciation through a total return strategy by investing in a diversified portfolio of global convertible securities.
The Fund leverages the firm’s history of investing in dedicated convertible security portfolios since 1979.
The fund invests in convertible securities, as well as other instruments that have economic characteristics similar to such securities, across global markets (but the fund will not invest in contingent convertible notes). The fund may invest in securities of any market capitalization or credit quality, including up to 100% in below investment grade or unrated securities, and may from time to time invest a significant amount of its assets in securities of smaller companies. Convertible securities may include any suitable convertible instruments such as convertible bonds, convertible notes or convertible preference shares.
By actively managing the fund and investing in convertible securities, the investment manager seeks the opportunity to participate in the capital appreciation of underlying stocks, while at the same time relying on the fixed income aspect of the convertible securities to provide current income and reduced price volatility, which can limit the risk of loss in a down equity market.
Class I USD LU2264533006
Class I EUR LU2264532966
Class A USD LU2264532701
Class A EUR LU2264532610
Class R USD LU2264533345
Class R EUR LU2264533261
Class F USD LU2264533691
Class F EUR LU2264533428
Disclaimer:
The information and any opinions have been obtained from or are based on sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No responsibility can be accepted for any consequential loss arising from the use of this information. The information is expressed at its date and is issued only to and directed only at those individuals who are permitted to receive such information in accordance with the applicable statutes. In some countries the distribution of this publication may be restricted. It is your responsibility to find out what those restrictions are and observe them.
Some of the statements in this presentation may contain or be based on forward looking statements, forecasts, estimates, projections, targets, or prognosis (“forward looking statements”), which reflect the manager’s current view of future events, economic developments and financial performance. Such forward looking statements are typically indicated by the use of words which express an estimate, expectation, belief, target or forecast. Such forward looking statements are based on an assessment of historical economic data, on the experience and current plans of the investment manager and/or certain advisors of the manager, and on the indicated sources. These forward looking statements contain no representation or warranty of whatever kind that such future events will occur or that they will occur as described herein, or that such results will be achieved by the fund or the investments of the fund, as the occurrence of these events and the results of the fund are subject to various risks and uncertainties. The actual portfolio, and thus results, of the fund may differ substantially from those assumed in the forward looking statements. The manager and its affiliates will not undertake to update or review the forward looking statements contained in this presentation, whether as result of new information or any future event or otherwise.